For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.
Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.
Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement
People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.
The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.
Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
OK Mr Pedantic. Not absolutely everyone. Not every smoker dies of cancer. Not every addict dies of an overdose. Not every alcoholic dies of cirrhosis... etc.
PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing
I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
It's not the rule breaking that bothers me, it's the hypocrisy. They made the rules the rest of us had to live by for months and the proceeded to ignore them completely. The rules were and currently are nonsense, I mean that whole vaccine pass at 1am for a pub with a dancefloor vs no dancefloor is just ridiculous for example. But they made them, if they don't want to stick to them then get rid for all of us.
The hypocrisy doesn't annoy me too much. It is the rules themselves. And, the urge amongst people to find meaning and purpose in obeying them, even though it is impossible to ever be totally compliant. It is just all a bit sad.
Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…
Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
Have you?
No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂 When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time? Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good. Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
Phwoar
Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂
I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋♀️
G'night
I am deeply ashamed of what I now realise was a completely inappropriate post. I undertake not to make similar comments in future.
No! It was bloody funny. 😀. It’s crime was cheese.
Now someone got to do “there’s a lot of it about - perhaps the government should act”
For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.
Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.
Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement
People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.
The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.
Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
OK Mr Pedantic. Not absolutely everyone. Not every smoker dies of cancer. Not every addict dies of an overdose. Not every alcoholic dies of cirrhosis... etc.
Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).
I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
Can you give us an example?
No he cannot
If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
Shouldn't be difficult to find us some examples then.
So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.
And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.
Have I got that right?
The LOTO has taken full advantage of a situation where the Prime Minister's authority in his own party is shot, because henceforth on Covid the ability of the Government to get any legislation through is now clearly at the whim of the LOTO. Johnson looks pathetically weak. Starmer has him where he wants him.
Covid madness update... went swimming today. A woman was actually wearing a mask whilst swimming. Then she wore it in the sauna as well.
There's also a lot of pre-emptive action/gold plating of the regs (delete according to preference) going on as well. Already my gym has reinstated the ridiculous pantomime of putting on a mask to walk through the building, when we all spend 99% of the time there either working out or changing, and therefore mask-free, and despite the fact that it is exempt. I also know of at least one restaurant in town that has brought back Covid theatre, despite also being exempt of course.
I don't know in which year, if ever, we're finally going to get rid of masks but it's clearly going to take some time.
What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.
The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.
In the Evening Standard tonight, one sentence said there were 2 million unvaccinated adults in London while another quoted 4-5 million nationally. Neither was evidenced in any way but that's what people will read.
IF, and again I lack the knowledge of many on here, Omicron is better at transmission than Delta the chances of an unvaccinated adult who has so far avoided the virus contracting the Omicron variant seem quite high.
Now, are we assuming those who contracted the virus in the spring of 2020 or early this year and have never been vaccinated still have some degree of antibody protection? I don't know - it seems implausible to this observer.
So, anyone who had the virus in April 2020 and has not been vaccinated since is presumably at risk but of course we have no knowledge of those numbers.
We actually do know, PHE does weekly surveillance of all 18+ for antibodies from vaccines or prior infection (they're slightly different so can easily be identified as one or the other). 95% of adults in the UK have got one or the other type of antibody, it's something like 85% have got antibodies from vaccines and 30% from prior infection with a big chunk of crossover.
The question is what kind of immunity everyone has, we know two dose immunity against Omicron only gives around a 65% reduction in hospitalisations but we also know that >90% of over 60s have had three doses now so in the categories most likely to go to hospital there could be over a 95% reduction on hospitalisations from Omicron already.
But yes, Omicron will definitely find that last 5% of adults who have no immunity at all.
That's very interesting thank you. So, it's thought that 'only' c. 30% of the population have had Covid. I'm not doubting that but it's surprisingly low. Thank goodness for the vaccines!
That's 18+, as we know millions and millions of kids have had COVID.
Fair point. So probably more than 30% of children but as under 12s haven't been vaccinated the overall immunity in children might still be lower than in the adult population.
Let's hope we don't end up regretting not vaccinating under 12s.
Exactly right, Cambridge university does a less frequent antibody surveillance study and they saw ca. 60% antibody levels in under 12s and ca. 80% in 12-17 year olds mostly naturally derived. They also saw 95% of adults having antibodies of some form.
So I asked this earlier in the thread but I thought I would again before heading off to bed. Maybe poeple who have been paying closer attention to SA numbers can tell me if I am right.
According to the NICD in South Africa Weekly hospital admissions have basically doubled 3 weeks in a row and are set to basically do so again this week (based on taking the partial data at multiplying by 7 for this week) Weekly Deaths have doubled 2 weeks in a row and are set to double again this week (based on taking the partial data at multiplying by 7 for this week)
That doesn't seem like "nothing to see here everything is fine". Am I missing a reason to be calm?
Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…
Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
Have you?
No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂 When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time? Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good. Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
Phwoar
Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂
I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋♀️
Ooh, Matron! Take her away!
PBs Carry on tribute night continues. Well it can only lead to one thing.
So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.
And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.
Have I got that right?
The LOTO has taken full advantage of a situation where the Prime Minister's authority in his own party is shot, because henceforth on Covid the ability of the Government to get any legislation through is now clearly at the whim of the LOTO. Johnson looks pathetically weak. Starmer has him where he wants him.
Yes, looked at purely tactically, generating a bitter chasm between government and backbenchers is a good outcome. It never looks good for a government to only gets votes through with the support of the LOTO.
PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing
I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
It's not the rule breaking that bothers me, it's the hypocrisy. They made the rules the rest of us had to live by for months and the proceeded to ignore them completely. The rules were and currently are nonsense, I mean that whole vaccine pass at 1am for a pub with a dancefloor vs no dancefloor is just ridiculous for example. But they made them, if they don't want to stick to them then get rid for all of us.
Yep, totally fair. The issue with the stupidity of the rules is that there will always be edge cases. So sports events with more than 10,000 people will need the Covid pass? Swindon home gate is typically 8,000 ish. Saturday is a Christmas game, traditionally a bumper crowd. Could be over 10,000. Do they need to check Covid passes or not? (I don’t care about the answer, it’s an illustration). In reality trying to micro manage behaviour was always going to lead to this kind of nonsense. I wish people could be trusted to be sensible, but I know for some that’s impossible. And so governments tinker at stupid rules, or even, pace Nicola today, guidelines that no more than three households should mix. On a given day, or can you have two round in the morning and another two in the afternoon? In the end vaccination and getting people to be sensible about risk is the only way out of this.
The return of ‘rules’ makes me recall the last lot with a shudder.
Remember the two Derbyshire blondes who got arrested for walking together with a takeaway coffee? And the covid wardens! Essentially snitching on your own neighbours.
I’m not certain it’s healthy for a liberal society to head down this avenue. I would much rather we focused on creating proper state support for the vulnerable to shield and protect themselves, and to find imaginative ways to increase healthcare capacity so we can cope.
For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.
Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.
Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement
People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.
The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.
Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
OK Mr Pedantic. Not absolutely everyone. Not every smoker dies of cancer. Not every addict dies of an overdose. Not every alcoholic dies of cirrhosis... etc.
Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).
Although as @Malmesbury pointed out it was almost at Black Death levels for some age groups early on.
For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.
Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.
Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement
People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.
The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.
Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
I will have to dig out some old calculations, but at one point we were seeing CFR of 30-40% in the UK for old people. Which is, literally, Black Death levels.
Over the whole pandemic Sweden has had 25,245 cases in 80-89 year olds. 6,169 deaths. Giving 25% ish but that's the whole pandemic, this time last year the percentage was waaaaaaaaay higher.
So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.
And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.
Have I got that right?
The LOTO has taken full advantage of a situation where the Prime Minister's authority in his own party is shot, because henceforth on Covid the ability of the Government to get any legislation through is now clearly at the whim of the LOTO. Johnson looks pathetically weak. Starmer has him where he wants him.
Except that Starmer has no leverage to extract concessions from the Government because Labour's default position, like that of the Scottish and Welsh administrations, is always to have restrictions that are at least slightly more severe than the Tories have mandated. Thus he will struggle to vote down any new tightening of the rules that the Government proposes.
His ability to cause Johnson discomfort over the matter is, therefore, somewhat limited.
So I asked this earlier in the thread but I thought I would again before heading off to bed. Maybe poeple who have been paying closer attention to SA numbers can tell me if I am right.
According to the NICD in South Africa Weekly hospital admissions have basically doubled 3 weeks in a row and are set to basically do so again this week (based on taking the partial data at multiplying by 7 for this week) Weekly Deaths have doubled 2 weeks in a row and are set to double again this week (based on taking the partial data at multiplying by 7 for this week)
That doesn't seem like "nothing to see here everything is fine". Am I missing a reason to be calm?
For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.
Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.
Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement
People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.
The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.
Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
OK Mr Pedantic. Not absolutely everyone. Not every smoker dies of cancer. Not every addict dies of an overdose. Not every alcoholic dies of cirrhosis... etc.
Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).
Although as @Malmesbury pointed out it was almost at Black Death levels for some age groups early on.
I suspect as that was CFR, a fair bit of under counting inn the cases data at that stage of the epidemic.
If Whitty and LSHTM's wild modelling predictions don't come to pass in New Year then surely Johnson is finally done?
Almost half his backbench voted to stop this wild lurch to panic.
I think he would be and so would they. If their advice turns out to be poor it may be seen as time to replace the advisors.
What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.
One thing I read on the possible for Omicron Hospitalisations was that the dilution in hospitalisation reduction could be greater than the dilution of infection protection for a heavily vaccinated population:
So, if the hospitalization prevention went from 97.5% for Delta to 90% in Omicron and the infection prevention went from 60% to 30% that would increase Hospitalisations relative to infections in the vaccinated:
Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…
Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
Have you?
No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂 When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time? Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good. Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
Is that why you have blue ears?
That’s spooky. I added a bit of mermaid blue to the pink back and sides this morning!
Apart from that I havn’t a clue what you are talking about.
Unless you have big ears Sir - in which case you are Noddy! 🙂
For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.
Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.
Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement
People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.
The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.
Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
OK Mr Pedantic. Not absolutely everyone. Not every smoker dies of cancer. Not every addict dies of an overdose. Not every alcoholic dies of cirrhosis... etc.
Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).
That is fair enough It definitely is not that bad, but it definitely hits worse the older the cohort is, thus the pensioners and carehome residents being first for jabs.
Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…
Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
Have you?
No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂 When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time? Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good. Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
Is that why you have blue ears?
That’s spooky. I added a bit of mermaid blue to the pink back and sides this morning!
Apart from that I havn’t a clue what you are talking about.
Unless you have big ears Sir - in which case you are Noddy! 🙂
You mean your avatar isn’t actually a picture of you?!
Rebellion was bigger than Whips expected says Times.
They simply have no clue, no control. I logged on mid afternoon and the briefing was that they had pared down a rebellion of 80 to nearer 70, thanks to their hard work (and Whitty’s video address).
“Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).”
When you are reduced to saying “Look, it’s grim, but it isn’t - yet - the Black Death” then commentary on grimness seems somewhat superfluous
If Whitty and LSHTM's wild modelling predictions don't come to pass in New Year then surely Johnson is finally done?
Almost half his backbench voted to stop this wild lurch to panic.
I think he would be and so would they. If their advice turns out to be poor it may be seen as time to replace the advisors.
What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.
One thing I read on the possible for Omicron Hospitalisations was that the dilution in hospitalisation reduction could be greater than the dilution of infection protection for a heavily vaccinated population:
So, if the hospitalization prevention went from 97.5% for Delta to 90% in Omicron and the infection prevention went from 60% to 30% that would increase Hospitalisations relative to infections in the vaccinated:
“Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).”
When you are reduced to saying “Look, it’s grim, but it isn’t - yet - the Black Death” then commentary on grimness seems somewhat superfluous
Lol. Fair point. In a similar vein:
"Look, the PM is awful, but he's not Dinal Trump."
Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…
Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
Have you?
No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂 When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time? Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good. Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
Is that why you have blue ears?
That’s spooky. I added a bit of mermaid blue to the pink back and sides this morning!
Apart from that I havn’t a clue what you are talking about.
Unless you have big ears Sir - in which case you are Noddy! 🙂
You mean your avatar isn’t actually a picture of you?!
I see now sorry Charles 😆
The Picture is me because I am Jade, I am a rabbit, and I live on the moon. 🙂
So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.
And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.
Have I got that right?
The LOTO has taken full advantage of a situation where the Prime Minister's authority in his own party is shot, because henceforth on Covid the ability of the Government to get any legislation through is now clearly at the whim of the LOTO. Johnson looks pathetically weak. Starmer has him where he wants him.
Except that Starmer has no leverage to extract concessions from the Government because Labour's default position, like that of the Scottish and Welsh administrations, is always to have restrictions that are at least slightly more severe than the Tories have mandated. Thus he will struggle to vote down any new tightening of the rules that the Government proposes.
His ability to cause Johnson discomfort over the matter is, therefore, somewhat limited.
The ability to extract concessions is neither here nor there. It's the political optics of Johnson's reliance on Labour votes that matters, in terms of further undermining Johnson's authority in his own party (which spells further trouble) and also in the eyes of the general public. At the same time, Starmer has stayed on the side of public opinion.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.
Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.
Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement
People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.
The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.
Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
I will have to dig out some old calculations, but at one point we were seeing CFR of 30-40% in the UK for old people. Which is, literally, Black Death levels.
Over the whole pandemic Sweden has had 25,245 cases in 80-89 year olds. 6,169 deaths. Giving 25% ish but that's the whole pandemic, this time last year the percentage was waaaaaaaaay higher.
“Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).”
When you are reduced to saying “Look, it’s grim, but it isn’t - yet - the Black Death” then commentary on grimness seems somewhat superfluous
So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.
And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.
Have I got that right?
The LOTO has taken full advantage of a situation where the Prime Minister's authority in his own party is shot, because henceforth on Covid the ability of the Government to get any legislation through is now clearly at the whim of the LOTO. Johnson looks pathetically weak. Starmer has him where he wants him.
Except that Starmer has no leverage to extract concessions from the Government because Labour's default position, like that of the Scottish and Welsh administrations, is always to have restrictions that are at least slightly more severe than the Tories have mandated. Thus he will struggle to vote down any new tightening of the rules that the Government proposes.
His ability to cause Johnson discomfort over the matter is, therefore, somewhat limited.
The ability to extract concessions is neither here nor there. It's the political optics of Johnson's reliance on Labour votes that matters, in terms of further undermining Johnson's authority in his own party (which spells further trouble) and also in the eyes of the general public. At the same time, Starmer has stayed on the side of public opinion.
Remember how last week BoJo's get out at PMQs was "Starmer plays politics with Covid"?
Given that Labour has just saved Government policy from the tender mercies of its backbenchers, good luck trying to play that card again.
Rebellion was bigger than Whips expected says Times.
They simply have no clue, no control. I logged on mid afternoon and the briefing was that they had pared down a rebellion of 80 to nearer 70, thanks to their hard work (and Whitty’s video address).
The actual rebellion was 101.
Presumably some of the rebels simply kept quiet, held cards close to chest and waited until the vote to play them - uninterested in the Government's arguments and never having had any intention of doing otherwise.
If and when Johnson attempts to tighten restrictions further, he'll only get broad backing from his own side if a disaster is clearly already in train. If he tries to act again based on the doom models alone he may even end up with an outright majority of the backbench vote against him.
A great many Tory MPs hate the restrictions, they are worried about us getting stuck in a permanent cycle of them, and after what happened in July I'd imagine they harbour a healthy scepticism about SAGE's pandemic guesstimates.
Rebellion was bigger than Whips expected says Times.
They simply have no clue, no control. I logged on mid afternoon and the briefing was that they had pared down a rebellion of 80 to nearer 70, thanks to their hard work (and Whitty’s video address).
The actual rebellion was 101.
To be fair, I think there was a lot of last minute heart searching. What do I really believe in vs what is good for my career (at least in next few weeks).
These MPs may be completely wrong, but at least the historical idea that England is country of liberty of the free man for better or worse got a refresh tonight.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
I remember when people said Delta would be fine and the first wave before that
I remember when they said the hospitals would be overwhelmed, everyone in society could be at risk, vaccines would stop a hyper-infectious virus, we just needed two weeks of lockdowns, and it would be over by Christmas.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
The 200k a day new cases of Omicron can't even be called a model.....its what a child 10 year old child would do to estimate the future.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
Nothing.
They will be back in February with a new warning about saving Easter from Pi.
Quite. When they get something right they're geniuses. When they get it spectacularly wrong the screw ups are quietly swept under the carpet.
If the models are wrong again this time then the modellers need to be dragged before the relevant Parliamentary committee to explain themselves. They really oughtn't to be allowed to get away with a second failure without being held accountable, especially after how much disruption and panic their numbers have generated. But it won't happen.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
Its a real possibility you are right and the government should be prepared to open up very rapidly if it is a paper tiger.
As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.
Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
Its a real possibility you are right and the government should be prepared to open up very rapidly if it is a paper tiger.
As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.
Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
I am not saying the government are right or wrong. I am saying the narrative are polar opposite and both double down on it. The GP lady is never off the telly telling everybody its so mild there is nothing to worry about, while Witty and Co have briefed the government the end of the world is nigh.
Vaxports only work in the sense that they persuade hesitant vaxxers to join the queue.
Maybe that justifies the loss of liberty and the destruction of pubs and night clubs. At least on a model somewhere in PHE England.
But 100 MPs said tonight that it does not. That is a roar from deep in the roots of the English shires. Johnson would be well advised to listen.
Once again, it is worth restating that there's precious little evidence that vaxports have done any good at all in encouraging take-up in the Celtic fringe, where they're already in use. All parts of the UK have very high vaccine enthusiasm; the 10% or so of eligible persons who have yet to have their first jab, aside from some kids and a small number of people who can't have them on medical grounds, are those who are too anti-vax or too bloody ignorant/complacent/lazy to be bothered.
I was going to say that not going clubbing isn't going to be sufficient to persuade that lot to budge, but fact is they can still go if they want to. They just need to falsify an LFT result and use that instead.
Vaxports succeed in being an expensive pain in the arse for already sickly businesses, a red rag to libertarians, and completely useless all at the same time. They're profoundly idiotic.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
Its a real possibility you are right and the government should be prepared to open up very rapidly if it is a paper tiger.
As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.
Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
I am not saying the government are right or wrong. I am saying the narrative are polar opposite and both double down on it. The GP lady is never off the telly telling everybody its so mild there is nothing to worry about, while Witty and Co have briefed the government the end of the world is nigh.
The 200k figure is BS though.
London has hit 10k reported cases per day and is still growing at above exponential (it's exponential factor is increasing as Omicron becomes dominant). Is 30k-40k per day impossible in London? No. Is the same rapid onset phase In other regions possible for Omicron within the next week or so. Sure.
I don't think all the peaks will coincide, but 40k per day positives in London would translate to 300k ish nationally.
300k is just 2.5% of the population testing positive in a week, for a variant with a lot b of the population to go at and relatively light social regulation.
You just cannot declare it ridiculous. There has been wolf crying and silly stuff - I don't see this one as that.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
It can't be long before we start getting some information about virulence.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
Its a real possibility you are right and the government should be prepared to open up very rapidly if it is a paper tiger.
As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.
Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
I am not saying the government are right or wrong. I am saying the narrative are polar opposite and both double down on it. The GP lady is never off the telly telling everybody its so mild there is nothing to worry about, while Witty and Co have briefed the government the end of the world is nigh.
The 200k figure is BS though.
London has hit 10k reported cases per day and is still growing at above exponential (it's exponential factor is increasing as Omicron becomes dominant). Is 30k-40k per day impossible in London? No. Is the same rapid onset phase In other regions possible for Omicron within the next week or so. Sure.
I don't think all the peaks will coincide, but 40k per day positives in London would translate to 300k ish nationally.
300k is just 2.5% of the population testing positive in a week, for a variant with a lot b of the population to go at and relatively light social regulation.
You just cannot declare it ridiculous. There has been wolf crying and silly stuff - I don't see this one as that.
You know this "model" isn't for 200k new cases a day next week, its for a million new cases a day by then....
It was built off somebody taking a reported figure from a month ago, projecting forward to last week, then taking a guess-estimated percentage of that figure to be omicron, then applying a guess-estimated for the doubling rating and then projecting forward with no consideration for effect of behavioural change, vaccinations, boosters etc etc etc.
A tiny change in any of those guess-estimated values or change in behaviour or accounting for vaccines results in a massive change to the headline number.
They have done the absolute #1 no no of modelling, taking a single noisy point and projected forward.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
Its a real possibility you are right and the government should be prepared to open up very rapidly if it is a paper tiger.
As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.
Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
I am not saying the government are right or wrong. I am saying the narrative are polar opposite and both double down on it. The GP lady is never off the telly telling everybody its so mild there is nothing to worry about, while Witty and Co have briefed the government the end of the world is nigh.
The 200k figure is BS though.
London has hit 10k reported cases per day and is still growing at above exponential (it's exponential factor is increasing as Omicron becomes dominant). Is 30k-40k per day impossible in London? No. Is the same rapid onset phase In other regions possible for Omicron within the next week or so. Sure.
I don't think all the peaks will coincide, but 40k per day positives in London would translate to 300k ish nationally.
300k is just 2.5% of the population testing positive in a week, for a variant with a lot b of the population to go at and relatively light social regulation.
You just cannot declare it ridiculous. There has been wolf crying and silly stuff - I don't see this one as that.
Ah, the Javid 200k figure. BBC justified that do that to made some sense (there were extrapolated numbers involved), but even allowing for those gymnastics, it was BS.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
It can't be long before we start getting some information about virulence.
Delta 29% milder than the original Wuhan strain, according to today’s South African study.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
I think the point about tonight's Tory rebellion isn't really about the substance of the vote, which people can rightly hold different opinions on.
It's the politics of it. Despite Boris's best efforts, including much personal cajoling, and that of the Whips, the number of rebels grew over the last few days rather than shrank.
Boris has lost control of his parliamentary party, hasn't he?
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
Based on their showing to date, you could have ended that statement at word 7.
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
"Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity."
Comments
I don't know in which year, if ever, we're finally going to get rid of masks but it's clearly going to take some time.
According to the NICD in South Africa
Weekly hospital admissions have basically doubled 3 weeks in a row and are set to basically do so again this week (based on taking the partial data at multiplying by 7 for this week)
Weekly Deaths have doubled 2 weeks in a row and are set to double again this week (based on taking the partial data at multiplying by 7 for this week)
That doesn't seem like "nothing to see here everything is fine". Am I missing a reason to be calm?
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
“Why? What's wrong with the other one?”
Remember the two Derbyshire blondes who got arrested for walking together with a takeaway coffee? And the covid wardens! Essentially snitching on your own neighbours.
I’m not certain it’s healthy for a liberal society to head down this avenue. I would much rather we focused on creating proper state support for the vulnerable to shield and protect themselves, and to find imaginative ways to increase healthcare capacity so we can cope.
His ability to cause Johnson discomfort over the matter is, therefore, somewhat limited.
It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*
* Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
Did you see my link to the SA Health insurer?
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712705615028226?t=yCTHgB2gBi-arzeNrb2_nA&s=19
So, if the hospitalization prevention went from 97.5% for Delta to 90% in Omicron and the infection prevention went from 60% to 30% that would increase Hospitalisations relative to infections in the vaccinated:
Unvaccinated Delta -> 1000 cases, 100 in hosp
Vaccinated Delta: 400 cases, 1 hosp (now)
Vaccinated Omicron: 700 cases, 7 hosp
And then you get up to 250k cases a day, with a higher hospitalisation rate per case because of the vaccine escape factor.
I guess this is a possible scenario that boosters are trying to reverse.
There was a bit more to m or than this - I think the calculations were done for a mixed population with some umvaxxed.
Apart from that I havn’t a clue what you are talking about.
Unless you have big ears Sir - in which case you are Noddy! 🙂
Angela Rayner possibly.
The actual rebellion was 101.
“Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).”
When you are reduced to saying “Look, it’s grim, but it isn’t - yet - the Black Death” then commentary on grimness seems somewhat superfluous
Unvax Delta: 1000 case, 100 hosp
Vax Delta: (60/95% prevention) (now)
400 cases, 5 hosp
Hosp rate per infection 1.25%
Vax Omicron (30/80% prevention) (future)
700 cases, 20 hosp
Hosp rate per infection 2.8%
These are example numbers, but b the link between hospitalisation and infection has strengthened.
Vaxports went through but with a big enough Tory rebellion to fire a shot across Boris' bows not to introduce another lockdown
"Look, the PM is awful, but he's not Dinal Trump."
The Picture is me because I am Jade, I am a rabbit, and I live on the moon. 🙂
Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE
If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?
The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
They will be back in February with a new warning about saving easter from Pi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcbR1J_4ICg
Given that Labour has just saved Government policy from the tender mercies of its backbenchers, good luck trying to play that card again.
If and when Johnson attempts to tighten restrictions further, he'll only get broad backing from his own side if a disaster is clearly already in train. If he tries to act again based on the doom models alone he may even end up with an outright majority of the backbench vote against him.
A great many Tory MPs hate the restrictions, they are worried about us getting stuck in a permanent cycle of them, and after what happened in July I'd imagine they harbour a healthy scepticism about SAGE's pandemic guesstimates.
These MPs may be completely wrong, but at least the historical idea that England is country of liberty of the free man for better or worse got a refresh tonight.
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712705615028226?t=yCTHgB2gBi-arzeNrb2_nA&s=19
If the models are wrong again this time then the modellers need to be dragged before the relevant Parliamentary committee to explain themselves. They really oughtn't to be allowed to get away with a second failure without being held accountable, especially after how much disruption and panic their numbers have generated. But it won't happen.
As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.
Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
Maybe that justifies the loss of liberty and the destruction of pubs and night clubs. At least on a model somewhere in PHE England.
But 100 MPs said tonight that it does not. That is a roar from deep in the roots of the english shires. Johnson would be well advised to listen.
The 200k figure is BS though.
I was going to say that not going clubbing isn't going to be sufficient to persuade that lot to budge, but fact is they can still go if they want to. They just need to falsify an LFT result and use that instead.
Vaxports succeed in being an expensive pain in the arse for already sickly businesses, a red rag to libertarians, and completely useless all at the same time. They're profoundly idiotic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hT9G9r3Hsv4
I don't think all the peaks will coincide, but 40k per day positives in London would translate to 300k ish nationally.
300k is just 2.5% of the population testing positive in a week, for a variant with a lot b of the population to go at and relatively light social regulation.
You just cannot declare it ridiculous. There has been wolf crying and silly stuff - I don't see this one as that.
Because IIRC Delta is more dangerous than that 'original covid'.
So if Omicron is 29% less dangerous than 'original covid' then wouldn't it show an even greater reduction in risk compared with Delta ?
Still early data and other caveats etc.
It was built off somebody taking a reported figure from a month ago, projecting forward to last week, then taking a guess-estimated percentage of that figure to be omicron, then applying a guess-estimated for the doubling rating and then projecting forward with no consideration for effect of behavioural change, vaccinations, boosters etc etc etc.
A tiny change in any of those guess-estimated values or change in behaviour or accounting for vaccines results in a massive change to the headline number.
They have done the absolute #1 no no of modelling, taking a single noisy point and projected forward.
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712686828826630/photo/1
It's the politics of it. Despite Boris's best efforts, including much personal cajoling, and that of the Whips, the number of rebels grew over the last few days rather than shrank.
Boris has lost control of his parliamentary party, hasn't he?
"Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity."