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Tories back as betting favourite in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.

    The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.

    In the Evening Standard tonight, one sentence said there were 2 million unvaccinated adults in London while another quoted 4-5 million nationally. Neither was evidenced in any way but that's what people will read.

    IF, and again I lack the knowledge of many on here, Omicron is better at transmission than Delta the chances of an unvaccinated adult who has so far avoided the virus contracting the Omicron variant seem quite high.

    Now, are we assuming those who contracted the virus in the spring of 2020 or early this year and have never been vaccinated still have some degree of antibody protection? I don't know - it seems implausible to this observer.

    So, anyone who had the virus in April 2020 and has not been vaccinated since is presumably at risk but of course we have no knowledge of those numbers.
    We actually do know, PHE does weekly surveillance of all 18+ for antibodies from vaccines or prior infection (they're slightly different so can easily be identified as one or the other). 95% of adults in the UK have got one or the other type of antibody, it's something like 85% have got antibodies from vaccines and 30% from prior infection with a big chunk of crossover.

    The question is what kind of immunity everyone has, we know two dose immunity against Omicron only gives around a 65% reduction in hospitalisations but we also know that >90% of over 60s have had three doses now so in the categories most likely to go to hospital there could be over a 95% reduction on hospitalisations from Omicron already.

    But yes, Omicron will definitely find that last 5% of adults who have no immunity at all.
    That's very interesting thank you. So, it's thought that 'only' c. 30% of the population have had Covid. I'm not doubting that but it's surprisingly low. Thank goodness for the vaccines!
    That's 18+, as we know millions and millions of kids have had COVID.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Is that why you have blue ears?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    MaxPB said:

    If Whitty and LSHTM's wild modelling predictions don't come to pass in New Year then surely Johnson is finally done?

    Almost half his backbench voted to stop this wild lurch to panic.

    I think he would be and so would they. If their advice turns out to be poor it may be seen as time to replace the advisors.

    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.
    We know perfectly well how this is going to pan out. If there's a tsunami of hospital cases then the models will be vindicated; if it fails to materialise then it will be claimed that the models were correct anyway but that the tsunami was successfully countered by the vaccines and the NPIs. Regardless, the models will continue to be treated as gospel (the total cockup in July having been conveniently forgotten) for every subsequent variant, and we'll be stuck in these panic cycles for years and years.

    But what can we do about it, eh? Nothing.
  • PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
    The bigger and more stupid sin from the PM and govt here was the continued lying about the parties rather than the parties themselves. If they can get the press to focus on the minutiae of the parties instead of the lies, as seems to be happening now, that is good news for the govt. I agree the vast majority broke the rules and laws.
    I think I can see how people attending the ‘parties’ convinced themselves that they weren’t breaking rules. It’s like my mother’s ever expanding bubble. But yes, I think the PM could have handled this better, but then he’s basically not up to the job.
    No, I think you can tell from the dummy press conference that it was common knowledge the rules were being broken, but they thought that was funny. They knew they were breaking the rules once it clearly was beyond a business meeting.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,883
    MaxPB said:

    PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
    It's not the rule breaking that bothers me, it's the hypocrisy. They made the rules the rest of us had to live by for months and the proceeded to ignore them completely. The rules were and currently are nonsense, I mean that whole vaccine pass at 1am for a pub with a dancefloor vs no dancefloor is just ridiculous for example. But they made them, if they don't want to stick to them then get rid for all of us.
    Yep, totally fair. The issue with the stupidity of the rules is that there will always be edge cases. So sports events with more than 10,000 people will need the Covid pass? Swindon home gate is typically 8,000 ish. Saturday is a Christmas game, traditionally a bumper crowd. Could be over 10,000. Do they need to check Covid passes or not? (I don’t care about the answer, it’s an illustration).
    In reality trying to micro manage behaviour was always going to lead to this kind of nonsense. I wish people could be trusted to be sensible, but I know for some that’s impossible. And so governments tinker at stupid rules, or even, pace Nicola today, guidelines that no more than three households should mix. On a given day, or can you have two round in the morning and another two in the afternoon?
    In the end vaccination and getting people to be sensible about risk is the only way out of this.
  • Sunak abstained? Surely a mistake?

    Again, Rachel Reeves is unwell. He’s her pair I think so voting would be ungentlemanly conduct.
    You pair with someone on the opposing side, not someone voting the same way you are.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
    Phwoar
    Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂

    I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋‍♀️
    G'night

    I am deeply ashamed of what I now realise was a completely inappropriate post. I undertake not to make similar
    comments in future.
    No! It was bloody funny. 😀. It’s crime was cheese.

    Now someone got to do “there’s a lot of it about - perhaps the government should act”
    Is it just me, or is that a line waiting for Sid James to say it?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,883

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    I will have to dig out some old calculations, but at one point we were seeing CFR of 30-40% in the UK for old people. Which is, literally, Black Death levels.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    The Lib Dems are paying to promote the Daily Mirror story on Shaun Bailey’s party onto the Facebook timelines of voters in North Shropshire https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1470877994340302854/photo/1
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,282
    The odds have flipped again in N Shrops. LDs now narrow favourites.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
    Phwoar
    Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂

    I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋‍♀️
    Ooh, Matron! Take her away!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    edited December 2021

    Sunak abstained? Surely a mistake?

    Again, Rachel Reeves is unwell. He’s her pair I think so voting would be ungentlemanly conduct.
    You pair with someone on the opposing side, not someone voting the same way you are.
    delete
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,883

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    I will have to dig out some old calculations, but at one point we were seeing CFR of 30-40% in the UK for old people. Which is, literally, Black Death levels.
    But is not being unvaxxed = dead. Pretty grim I’ll grant you.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited December 2021
    jonny83 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    It is worth remembering that mandatory vaccinations for medical workers have been around for years. To protect patients, colleagues and themselves.
    Are flu vaccines mandatory for NHS staff?

    I'm not opposed to it being brought in gradually, I just think it might be counterproductive to do it quite so quickly.
    It's not mandatory for Flu.

    MMR is mandatory at our trust and obviously depending where you work Hep B may be needed along with TB immunity confirmed.

    It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the mandatory Covid vaccines. We have via the Trust bulletin set out deadlines so that staff know when they need to have their 1st dose by so that they meet the April deadline for 2nd dose.

    I have already seen a number of staff contacting us trying to get out of having it...
    Same at my Trust.

    Hep B only for those doing invasive procedures etc. Flu vaccine heavily encouraged but not compulsory.

    Our occupational health are pursuing the unvaxxed, but line managers don't know, so could be unexpected gaps in April.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.

    The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.

    In the Evening Standard tonight, one sentence said there were 2 million unvaccinated adults in London while another quoted 4-5 million nationally. Neither was evidenced in any way but that's what people will read.

    IF, and again I lack the knowledge of many on here, Omicron is better at transmission than Delta the chances of an unvaccinated adult who has so far avoided the virus contracting the Omicron variant seem quite high.

    Now, are we assuming those who contracted the virus in the spring of 2020 or early this year and have never been vaccinated still have some degree of antibody protection? I don't know - it seems implausible to this observer.

    So, anyone who had the virus in April 2020 and has not been vaccinated since is presumably at risk but of course we have no knowledge of those numbers.
    We actually do know, PHE does weekly surveillance of all 18+ for antibodies from vaccines or prior infection (they're slightly different so can easily be identified as one or the other). 95% of adults in the UK have got one or the other type of antibody, it's something like 85% have got antibodies from vaccines and 30% from prior infection with a big chunk of crossover.

    The question is what kind of immunity everyone has, we know two dose immunity against Omicron only gives around a 65% reduction in hospitalisations but we also know that >90% of over 60s have had three doses now so in the categories most likely to go to hospital there could be over a 95% reduction on hospitalisations from Omicron already.

    But yes, Omicron will definitely find that last 5% of adults who have no immunity at all.
    That's very interesting thank you. So, it's thought that 'only' c. 30% of the population have had Covid. I'm not doubting that but it's surprisingly low. Thank goodness for the vaccines!
    That's 18+, as we know millions and millions of kids have had COVID.
    Fair point. So probably more than 30% of children but as under 12s haven't been vaccinated the overall immunity in children might still be lower than in the adult population.

    Let's hope we don't end up regretting not vaccinating under 12s.
  • For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    OK Mr Pedantic. Not absolutely everyone. Not every smoker dies of cancer. Not every addict dies of an overdose. Not every alcoholic dies of cirrhosis... etc.
  • The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746
    MaxPB said:

    PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
    It's not the rule breaking that bothers me, it's the hypocrisy. They made the rules the rest of us had to live by for months and the proceeded to ignore them completely. The rules were and currently are nonsense, I mean that whole vaccine pass at 1am for a pub with a dancefloor vs no dancefloor is just ridiculous for example. But they made them, if they don't want to stick to them then get rid for all of us.
    The hypocrisy doesn't annoy me too much. It is the rules themselves. And, the urge amongst people to find meaning and purpose in obeying them, even though it is impossible to ever be totally compliant. It is just all a bit sad.




  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
    Phwoar
    Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂

    I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋‍♀️
    G'night

    I am deeply ashamed of what I now realise was a completely inappropriate post. I undertake not to make similar
    comments in future.
    No! It was bloody funny. 😀. It’s crime was cheese.

    Now someone got to do “there’s a lot of it about - perhaps the government should act”
    Exit @IshmaelZ stage left, pursues by a Truss
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,883

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    OK Mr Pedantic. Not absolutely everyone. Not every smoker dies of cancer. Not every addict dies of an overdose. Not every alcoholic dies of cirrhosis... etc.
    Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    Charles said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
    7-down
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Charles said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
    Go on - amaze me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470855418243162113

    BoJo next, honestly how stupid can you be?

    Do you have any proof of this, or just hoping?
    I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
    Can you give us an example?
    No he cannot
    If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
    Shouldn't be difficult to find us some examples then.
    Assuming you mean examples of Crerars' hints:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470821697033015312?s=20 "Watch this space"

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469788225673826308?s=20 "Incoming"
    Except those aren't teasers about photos with Boris. I asked because I looked myself and couldn't see any such teasers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Charles said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
    Because they don't like 7 Up.
  • So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.

    And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.

    Have I got that right?

    The LOTO has taken full advantage of a situation where the Prime Minister's authority in his own party is shot, because henceforth on Covid the ability of the Government to get any legislation through is now clearly at the whim of the LOTO. Johnson looks pathetically weak. Starmer has him where he wants him.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Sunak abstained? Surely a mistake?

    Again, Rachel Reeves is unwell. He’s her pair I think so voting would be ungentlemanly conduct.
    You pair with someone on the opposing side, not someone voting the same way you are.
    You think Mrs May is on the government's side? Well, its a view.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    darkage said:

    Covid madness update... went swimming today. A woman was actually wearing a mask whilst swimming. Then she wore it in the sauna as well.

    There's also a lot of pre-emptive action/gold plating of the regs (delete according to preference) going on as well. Already my gym has reinstated the ridiculous pantomime of putting on a mask to walk through the building, when we all spend 99% of the time there either working out or changing, and therefore mask-free, and despite the fact that it is exempt. I also know of at least one restaurant in town that has brought back Covid theatre, despite also being exempt of course.

    I don't know in which year, if ever, we're finally going to get rid of masks but it's clearly going to take some time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.

    The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.

    In the Evening Standard tonight, one sentence said there were 2 million unvaccinated adults in London while another quoted 4-5 million nationally. Neither was evidenced in any way but that's what people will read.

    IF, and again I lack the knowledge of many on here, Omicron is better at transmission than Delta the chances of an unvaccinated adult who has so far avoided the virus contracting the Omicron variant seem quite high.

    Now, are we assuming those who contracted the virus in the spring of 2020 or early this year and have never been vaccinated still have some degree of antibody protection? I don't know - it seems implausible to this observer.

    So, anyone who had the virus in April 2020 and has not been vaccinated since is presumably at risk but of course we have no knowledge of those numbers.
    We actually do know, PHE does weekly surveillance of all 18+ for antibodies from vaccines or prior infection (they're slightly different so can easily be identified as one or the other). 95% of adults in the UK have got one or the other type of antibody, it's something like 85% have got antibodies from vaccines and 30% from prior infection with a big chunk of crossover.

    The question is what kind of immunity everyone has, we know two dose immunity against Omicron only gives around a 65% reduction in hospitalisations but we also know that >90% of over 60s have had three doses now so in the categories most likely to go to hospital there could be over a 95% reduction on hospitalisations from Omicron already.

    But yes, Omicron will definitely find that last 5% of adults who have no immunity at all.
    That's very interesting thank you. So, it's thought that 'only' c. 30% of the population have had Covid. I'm not doubting that but it's surprisingly low. Thank goodness for the vaccines!
    That's 18+, as we know millions and millions of kids have had COVID.
    Fair point. So probably more than 30% of children but as under 12s haven't been vaccinated the overall immunity in children might still be lower than in the adult population.

    Let's hope we don't end up regretting not vaccinating under 12s.
    Exactly right, Cambridge university does a less frequent antibody surveillance study and they saw ca. 60% antibody levels in under 12s and ca. 80% in 12-17 year olds mostly naturally derived. They also saw 95% of adults having antibodies of some form.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So I asked this earlier in the thread but I thought I would again before heading off to bed. Maybe poeple who have been paying closer attention to SA numbers can tell me if I am right.

    According to the NICD in South Africa
    Weekly hospital admissions have basically doubled 3 weeks in a row and are set to basically do so again this week (based on taking the partial data at multiplying by 7 for this week)
    Weekly Deaths have doubled 2 weeks in a row and are set to double again this week (based on taking the partial data at multiplying by 7 for this week)

    That doesn't seem like "nothing to see here everything is fine". Am I missing a reason to be calm?

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
    Phwoar
    Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂

    I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋‍♀️
    Ooh, Matron! Take her away!
    PBs Carry on tribute night continues. Well it can only lead to one thing.

    “Why? What's wrong with the other one?”
  • The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    "Welcome to the party, pal!"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.

    And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.

    Have I got that right?

    The LOTO has taken full advantage of a situation where the Prime Minister's authority in his own party is shot, because henceforth on Covid the ability of the Government to get any legislation through is now clearly at the whim of the LOTO. Johnson looks pathetically weak. Starmer has him where he wants him.
    Yes, looked at purely tactically, generating a bitter chasm between government and backbenchers is a good outcome. It never looks good for a government to only gets votes through with the support of the LOTO.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
    Go on - amaze me.
    Because NASA couldn’t get 7-Up

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    MaxPB said:

    PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
    It's not the rule breaking that bothers me, it's the hypocrisy. They made the rules the rest of us had to live by for months and the proceeded to ignore them completely. The rules were and currently are nonsense, I mean that whole vaccine pass at 1am for a pub with a dancefloor vs no dancefloor is just ridiculous for example. But they made them, if they don't want to stick to them then get rid for all of us.
    Yep, totally fair. The issue with the stupidity of the rules is that there will always be edge cases. So sports events with more than 10,000 people will need the Covid pass? Swindon home gate is typically 8,000 ish. Saturday is a Christmas game, traditionally a bumper crowd. Could be over 10,000. Do they need to check Covid passes or not? (I don’t care about the answer, it’s an illustration).
    In reality trying to micro manage behaviour was always going to lead to this kind of nonsense. I wish people could be trusted to be sensible, but I know for some that’s impossible. And so governments tinker at stupid rules, or even, pace Nicola today, guidelines that no more than three households should mix. On a given day, or can you have two round in the morning and another two in the afternoon?
    In the end vaccination and getting people to be sensible about risk is the only way out of this.
    The return of ‘rules’ makes me recall the last lot with a shudder.

    Remember the two Derbyshire blondes who got arrested for walking together with a takeaway coffee? And the covid wardens! Essentially snitching on your own neighbours.

    I’m not certain it’s healthy for a liberal society to head down this avenue. I would much rather we focused on creating proper state support for the vulnerable to shield and protect themselves, and to find imaginative ways to increase healthcare capacity so we can cope.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    OK Mr Pedantic. Not absolutely everyone. Not every smoker dies of cancer. Not every addict dies of an overdose. Not every alcoholic dies of cirrhosis... etc.
    Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).
    Although as @Malmesbury pointed out it was almost at Black Death levels for some age groups early on.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    I will have to dig out some old calculations, but at one point we were seeing CFR of 30-40% in the UK for old people. Which is, literally, Black Death levels.
    Over the whole pandemic Sweden has had 25,245 cases in 80-89 year olds. 6,169 deaths. Giving 25% ish but that's the whole pandemic, this time last year the percentage was waaaaaaaaay higher.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088

    So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.

    And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.

    Have I got that right?

    The LOTO has taken full advantage of a situation where the Prime Minister's authority in his own party is shot, because henceforth on Covid the ability of the Government to get any legislation through is now clearly at the whim of the LOTO. Johnson looks pathetically weak. Starmer has him where he wants him.
    Except that Starmer has no leverage to extract concessions from the Government because Labour's default position, like that of the Scottish and Welsh administrations, is always to have restrictions that are at least slightly more severe than the Tories have mandated. Thus he will struggle to vote down any new tightening of the rules that the Government proposes.

    His ability to cause Johnson discomfort over the matter is, therefore, somewhat limited.
  • The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*


    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Alistair said:

    So I asked this earlier in the thread but I thought I would again before heading off to bed. Maybe poeple who have been paying closer attention to SA numbers can tell me if I am right.

    According to the NICD in South Africa
    Weekly hospital admissions have basically doubled 3 weeks in a row and are set to basically do so again this week (based on taking the partial data at multiplying by 7 for this week)
    Weekly Deaths have doubled 2 weeks in a row and are set to double again this week (based on taking the partial data at multiplying by 7 for this week)

    That doesn't seem like "nothing to see here everything is fine". Am I missing a reason to be calm?

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

    No.

    Did you see my link to the SA Health insurer?

    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712705615028226?t=yCTHgB2gBi-arzeNrb2_nA&s=19
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,883

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    OK Mr Pedantic. Not absolutely everyone. Not every smoker dies of cancer. Not every addict dies of an overdose. Not every alcoholic dies of cirrhosis... etc.
    Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).
    Although as @Malmesbury pointed out it was almost at Black Death levels for some age groups early on.
    I suspect as that was CFR, a fair bit of under counting inn the cases data at that stage of the epidemic.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
    Go on - amaze me.
    Because NASA couldn’t get 7-Up

    No, you've still lost me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
    Go on - amaze me.
    Because NASA couldn’t get 7-Up

    No, you've still lost me.
    I would keep it that way. Its very poor taste.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*


    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    Chips Channon?
  • Rebellion was bigger than Whips expected says Times.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    MaxPB said:

    If Whitty and LSHTM's wild modelling predictions don't come to pass in New Year then surely Johnson is finally done?

    Almost half his backbench voted to stop this wild lurch to panic.

    I think he would be and so would they. If their advice turns out to be poor it may be seen as time to replace the advisors.

    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.
    One thing I read on the possible for Omicron Hospitalisations was that the dilution in hospitalisation reduction could be greater than the dilution of infection protection for a heavily vaccinated population:

    So, if the hospitalization prevention went from 97.5% for Delta to 90% in Omicron and the infection prevention went from 60% to 30% that would increase Hospitalisations relative to infections in the vaccinated:

    Unvaccinated Delta -> 1000 cases, 100 in hosp
    Vaccinated Delta: 400 cases, 1 hosp (now)
    Vaccinated Omicron: 700 cases, 7 hosp

    And then you get up to 250k cases a day, with a higher hospitalisation rate per case because of the vaccine escape factor.

    I guess this is a possible scenario that boosters are trying to reverse.

    There was a bit more to m or than this - I think the calculations were done for a mixed population with some umvaxxed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,883
    Space shuttle exploding with 7 astronauts on...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
    Go on - amaze me.
    Because NASA couldn’t get 7-Up

    No, you've still lost me.
    I would keep it that way. Its very poor taste.
    Fair enough. Thanks.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
    Go on - amaze me.
    Because NASA couldn’t get 7-Up

    No, you've still lost me.
    It’s a Challenger joke (7 astronauts died in the explosion)
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
    Go on - amaze me.
    Because NASA couldn’t get 7-Up

    No, you've still lost me.
    A tasteless reference to the Challenger disaster of 1986.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*


    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    Jess Phillips maybe. Thought she was quite good on HIGNFY this week.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    I knew I shouldn't have asked.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Is that why you have blue ears?
    That’s spooky. I added a bit of mermaid blue to the pink back and sides this morning!

    Apart from that I havn’t a clue what you are talking about.

    Unless you have big ears Sir - in which case you are Noddy! 🙂
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*


    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    Jess Phillips maybe. Thought she was quite good on HIGNFY this week.
    One of the few MPs with a quick wit.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*


    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    Clive Lewis definitely.

    Angela Rayner possibly.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited December 2021

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    OK Mr Pedantic. Not absolutely everyone. Not every smoker dies of cancer. Not every addict dies of an overdose. Not every alcoholic dies of cirrhosis... etc.
    Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).
    That is fair enough :+1: It definitely is not that bad, but it definitely hits worse the older the cohort is, thus the pensioners and carehome residents being first for jabs.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Is that why you have blue ears?
    That’s spooky. I added a bit of mermaid blue to the pink back and sides this morning!

    Apart from that I havn’t a clue what you are talking about.

    Unless you have big ears Sir - in which case you are Noddy! 🙂
    You mean your avatar isn’t actually a picture of you?!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    Rebellion was bigger than Whips expected says Times.

    They simply have no clue, no control. I logged on mid afternoon and the briefing was that they had pared down a rebellion of 80 to nearer 70, thanks to their hard work (and Whitty’s video address).

    The actual rebellion was 101.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
    Why do astronauts drink sprite?
    Go on - amaze me.
    Because NASA couldn’t get 7-Up

    No, you've still lost me.
    You don’t want to know. It’s a sick joke from an era when they were all the rage in the school playground.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*

    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    One stands out a mile in this regard - Barry Gardiner.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    One of my favourite PB comments of recent times:

    “Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).”


    When you are reduced to saying “Look, it’s grim, but it isn’t - yet - the Black Death” then commentary on grimness seems somewhat superfluous
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    Pro_Rata said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Whitty and LSHTM's wild modelling predictions don't come to pass in New Year then surely Johnson is finally done?

    Almost half his backbench voted to stop this wild lurch to panic.

    I think he would be and so would they. If their advice turns out to be poor it may be seen as time to replace the advisors.

    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.
    One thing I read on the possible for Omicron Hospitalisations was that the dilution in hospitalisation reduction could be greater than the dilution of infection protection for a heavily vaccinated population:

    So, if the hospitalization prevention went from 97.5% for Delta to 90% in Omicron and the infection prevention went from 60% to 30% that would increase Hospitalisations relative to infections in the vaccinated:

    Unvaccinated Delta -> 1000 cases, 100 in hosp
    Vaccinated Delta: 400 cases, 1 hosp (now)
    Vaccinated Omicron: 700 cases, 7 hosp

    And then you get up to 250k cases a day, with a higher hospitalisation rate per case because of the vaccine escape factor.

    I guess this is a possible scenario that boosters are trying to reverse.

    There was a bit more to m or than this - I think the calculations were done for a mixed population with some umvaxxed.
    Slightly wrong numbers:

    Unvax Delta: 1000 case, 100 hosp

    Vax Delta: (60/95% prevention) (now)
    400 cases, 5 hosp
    Hosp rate per infection 1.25%

    Vax Omicron (30/80% prevention) (future)
    700 cases, 20 hosp
    Hosp rate per infection 2.8%

    These are example numbers, but b the link between hospitalisation and infection has strengthened.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,711
    Vote went right way tonight.

    Vaxports went through but with a big enough Tory rebellion to fire a shot across Boris' bows not to introduce another lockdown
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Leon said:

    One of my favourite PB comments of recent times:

    “Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).”

    When you are reduced to saying “Look, it’s grim, but it isn’t - yet - the Black Death” then commentary on grimness seems somewhat superfluous

    Lol. Fair point. In a similar vein:

    "Look, the PM is awful, but he's not Dinal Trump."
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    HYUFD said:

    Vote went right way tonight.

    Vaxports went through but with a big enough Tory rebellion to fire a shot across Boris' bows not to introduce another lockdown

    Excellent party management - well done the Tories!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Is that why you have blue ears?
    That’s spooky. I added a bit of mermaid blue to the pink back and sides this morning!

    Apart from that I havn’t a clue what you are talking about.

    Unless you have big ears Sir - in which case you are Noddy! 🙂
    You mean your avatar isn’t actually a picture of you?!
    I see now sorry Charles 😆

    The Picture is me because I am Jade, I am a rabbit, and I live on the moon. 🙂
  • Take care @MoonRabbit and enjoy the shopping
  • Aaron is on Newsnight
  • pigeon said:

    So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.

    And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.

    Have I got that right?

    The LOTO has taken full advantage of a situation where the Prime Minister's authority in his own party is shot, because henceforth on Covid the ability of the Government to get any legislation through is now clearly at the whim of the LOTO. Johnson looks pathetically weak. Starmer has him where he wants him.
    Except that Starmer has no leverage to extract concessions from the Government because Labour's default position, like that of the Scottish and Welsh administrations, is always to have restrictions that are at least slightly more severe than the Tories have mandated. Thus he will struggle to vote down any new tightening of the rules that the Government proposes.

    His ability to cause Johnson discomfort over the matter is, therefore, somewhat limited.
    The ability to extract concessions is neither here nor there. It's the political optics of Johnson's reliance on Labour votes that matters, in terms of further undermining Johnson's authority in his own party (which spells further trouble) and also in the eyes of the general public. At the same time, Starmer has stayed on the side of public opinion.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    HYUFD said:

    Vote went right way tonight.

    Vaxports went through but with a big enough Tory rebellion to fire a shot across Boris' bows not to introduce another lockdown

    The beginning of end. Just like when Blair relied on Tory votes to pass education reform. Within a year he was gone. History rhymes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.
  • South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    Nothing.

    They will be back in February with a new warning about saving easter from Pi.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    Alistair said:

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    I will have to dig out some old calculations, but at one point we were seeing CFR of 30-40% in the UK for old people. Which is, literally, Black Death levels.
    Over the whole pandemic Sweden has had 25,245 cases in 80-89 year olds. 6,169 deaths. Giving 25% ish but that's the whole pandemic, this time last year the percentage was waaaaaaaaay higher.
    Doctors learnt on the job - grim but true.
  • I remember when people said Delta would be fine and the first wave before that
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    Leon said:

    One of my favourite PB comments of recent times:

    “Sorry. There’s been a lot of snarky tonight. It’s important to keep a sense of perspective about how serious Covid is. It’s grim, but isn’t the Black Death (1 in 3 or even 1 in 2 by some estimates).”


    When you are reduced to saying “Look, it’s grim, but it isn’t - yet - the Black Death” then commentary on grimness seems somewhat superfluous

    Obvious required clip...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcbR1J_4ICg
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    Nothing.

    They will be back in February with a new warning about saving easter from Pi.

    Well whatever happens whoever is behind that 200k Omicron a day new cases in England should be sent back to school immediately.....
  • pigeon said:

    So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.

    And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.

    Have I got that right?

    The LOTO has taken full advantage of a situation where the Prime Minister's authority in his own party is shot, because henceforth on Covid the ability of the Government to get any legislation through is now clearly at the whim of the LOTO. Johnson looks pathetically weak. Starmer has him where he wants him.
    Except that Starmer has no leverage to extract concessions from the Government because Labour's default position, like that of the Scottish and Welsh administrations, is always to have restrictions that are at least slightly more severe than the Tories have mandated. Thus he will struggle to vote down any new tightening of the rules that the Government proposes.

    His ability to cause Johnson discomfort over the matter is, therefore, somewhat limited.
    The ability to extract concessions is neither here nor there. It's the political optics of Johnson's reliance on Labour votes that matters, in terms of further undermining Johnson's authority in his own party (which spells further trouble) and also in the eyes of the general public. At the same time, Starmer has stayed on the side of public opinion.
    Remember how last week BoJo's get out at PMQs was "Starmer plays politics with Covid"?

    Given that Labour has just saved Government policy from the tender mercies of its backbenchers, good luck trying to play that card again.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088

    Rebellion was bigger than Whips expected says Times.

    They simply have no clue, no control. I logged on mid afternoon and the briefing was that they had pared down a rebellion of 80 to nearer 70, thanks to their hard work (and Whitty’s video address).

    The actual rebellion was 101.
    Presumably some of the rebels simply kept quiet, held cards close to chest and waited until the vote to play them - uninterested in the Government's arguments and never having had any intention of doing otherwise.

    If and when Johnson attempts to tighten restrictions further, he'll only get broad backing from his own side if a disaster is clearly already in train. If he tries to act again based on the doom models alone he may even end up with an outright majority of the backbench vote against him.

    A great many Tory MPs hate the restrictions, they are worried about us getting stuck in a permanent cycle of them, and after what happened in July I'd imagine they harbour a healthy scepticism about SAGE's pandemic guesstimates.
  • Rebellion was bigger than Whips expected says Times.

    They simply have no clue, no control. I logged on mid afternoon and the briefing was that they had pared down a rebellion of 80 to nearer 70, thanks to their hard work (and Whitty’s video address).

    The actual rebellion was 101.
    To be fair, I think there was a lot of last minute heart searching. What do I really believe in vs what is good for my career (at least in next few weeks).

    These MPs may be completely wrong, but at least the historical idea that England is country of liberty of the free man for better or worse got a refresh tonight.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kinabalu said:

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*

    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    One stands out a mile in this regard - Barry Gardiner.
    Yep. Public schoolboys know how to party.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    I remember when people said Delta would be fine and the first wave before that

    I remember when they said the hospitals would be overwhelmed, everyone in society could be at risk, vaccines would stop a hyper-infectious virus, we just needed two weeks of lockdowns, and it would be over by Christmas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
    The 200k a day new cases of Omicron can't even be called a model.....its what a child 10 year old child would do to estimate the future.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*


    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    Clive Lewis definitely.

    Angela Rayner possibly.
    Yes, I reckon Angela knows how to party!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    20 years ago I ended up on a weekend bender with at the time a former MP....they were surprisingly fun.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
    29% better than original covid:

    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712705615028226?t=yCTHgB2gBi-arzeNrb2_nA&s=19
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    Nothing.

    They will be back in February with a new warning about saving Easter from Pi.
    Quite. When they get something right they're geniuses. When they get it spectacularly wrong the screw ups are quietly swept under the carpet.

    If the models are wrong again this time then the modellers need to be dragged before the relevant Parliamentary committee to explain themselves. They really oughtn't to be allowed to get away with a second failure without being held accountable, especially after how much disruption and panic their numbers have generated. But it won't happen.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    Its a real possibility you are right and the government should be prepared to open up very rapidly if it is a paper tiger.

    As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.

    Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
  • Vaxports only work in the sense that they persuade hesitant vaxxers to join the queue.

    Maybe that justifies the loss of liberty and the destruction of pubs and night clubs. At least on a model somewhere in PHE England.

    But 100 MPs said tonight that it does not. That is a roar from deep in the roots of the english shires. Johnson would be well advised to listen.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Foxy said:

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*


    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    Clive Lewis definitely.

    Angela Rayner possibly.
    Yes, I reckon Angela knows how to party!
    Theresa May with her mates off their nuts in a wheat field. It’s the only party worth going to.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    Pro_Rata said:

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    Its a real possibility you are right and the government should be prepared to open up very rapidly if it is a paper tiger.

    As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.

    Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
    I am not saying the government are right or wrong. I am saying the narrative are polar opposite and both double down on it. The GP lady is never off the telly telling everybody its so mild there is nothing to worry about, while Witty and Co have briefed the government the end of the world is nigh.

    The 200k figure is BS though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    20 years ago I ended up on a weekend bender with a former MP....they were surprisingly fun.

    I had a night in a pub with NPXMP and future MP @Tissue_Price. Not much dancing, and a bit short of females but a good night out.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*

    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    One stands out a mile in this regard - Barry Gardiner.
    Yep. Public schoolboys know how to party.
    I can certainly envisage Gardo properly larging it, zero fucks given.
  • Jonathan said:

    20 years ago I ended up on a weekend bender with at the time a former MP....they were surprisingly fun.

    Widdecombe or the Rev Iain Paisley Snr?
    Paisley was a noted teetotaller
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088

    Vaxports only work in the sense that they persuade hesitant vaxxers to join the queue.

    Maybe that justifies the loss of liberty and the destruction of pubs and night clubs. At least on a model somewhere in PHE England.

    But 100 MPs said tonight that it does not. That is a roar from deep in the roots of the English shires. Johnson would be well advised to listen.

    Once again, it is worth restating that there's precious little evidence that vaxports have done any good at all in encouraging take-up in the Celtic fringe, where they're already in use. All parts of the UK have very high vaccine enthusiasm; the 10% or so of eligible persons who have yet to have their first jab, aside from some kids and a small number of people who can't have them on medical grounds, are those who are too anti-vax or too bloody ignorant/complacent/lazy to be bothered.

    I was going to say that not going clubbing isn't going to be sufficient to persuade that lot to budge, but fact is they can still go if they want to. They just need to falsify an LFT result and use that instead.

    Vaxports succeed in being an expensive pain in the arse for already sickly businesses, a red rag to libertarians, and completely useless all at the same time. They're profoundly idiotic.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*

    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    One stands out a mile in this regard - Barry Gardiner.
    Yep. Public schoolboys know how to party.
    I can certainly envisage Gardo properly larging it, zero fucks given.
    Gardiner gave a very interesting interview to the Haileybury Society (which supports Old Haileyburians).
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