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Tories back as betting favourite in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    If you only click on one tweet this week, make it this one.

    Watch all the way through.

    https://twitter.com/PonchoRebound/status/1470570632157048832

    Saw it a while ago and genuinely surprised anyone thought it was 'real' .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Ethical challenge if PB headers can move betting markets to this extent.
  • How many of the freedom loving Tory rebel MPs are going to maintain that line when it comes to voting on NHS workers' freedom to go unvaccinated?

    It depends if they want to pander to anti-vaxxers.

    I'd rather they defend the freedoms of the vaccinated.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    rcs1000 said:

    If you only click on one tweet this week, make it this one.

    Watch all the way through.

    https://twitter.com/PonchoRebound/status/1470570632157048832

    👍🏻

    PS Thanks Junior!
  • maaarsh said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Covid certification.
    Yes 369
    NO 126

    Maj 243

    You mean vaccine passports?

    Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
    Sky say 101
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    maaarsh said:

    Alistair said:

    If i was forced to describe the regional case figures in England using only sound effects i would select a rocket ship for London.

    Again, if we're allowed to obsess over regional subsamples, the furthest along and most instructive is Gautang, where the rocket ship has become a hot air balloon, hopefully soon to become a rock.
    London data....

    What's your point, I don't remotely deny there'll be lots of cases. The question is how quickly they level off and Gauteng is the relevant region to be following.

    Your 7 day averages smooths things out but on the latest day's data the number of covid parients in hospital in London fell, and remains around half last year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,147
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you only click on one tweet this week, make it this one.

    Watch all the way through.

    https://twitter.com/PonchoRebound/status/1470570632157048832

    Saw it a while ago and genuinely surprised anyone thought it was 'real' .
    It's not real, then?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,818
    edited December 2021
    maaarsh said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Covid certification.
    Yes 369
    NO 126

    Maj 243

    You mean vaccine passports?

    Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
    Remember some of the apparent rebels are Scottish Tory MPs presumably abstaining on principle, like the SNP and Albannaichaid do. English regs and all that.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you only click on one tweet this week, make it this one.

    Watch all the way through.

    https://twitter.com/PonchoRebound/status/1470570632157048832

    Saw it a while ago and genuinely surprised anyone thought it was 'real' .
    It's not real, then?
    @PonchoRebound

    About an hour after I posted the video, I was linked to the full version of the video, which is apparently a Dhar Mann-style inspirational video by Cris Elmasry.

    So, credit to the artist:
    m.facebook.com
    Cris Elmasry - كريس المصرى - Whatever your problem is, don’t stop...
    Whatever your problem is, don’t stop helping people مهما كانت مشكلتك ، لا تتوقف عن مساعدة الناس this page’s videos are intended for entertainment...
    Eize Basa
    ·
    12h
    It’s a bummer for sure, BUT it’s also an interesting lesson in how important editing and framing is to the craft of filmmaking: the grainy, low res, cropped, and silent version I posted FEELS authentic in a way the real video just doesn’t, with its HD quality and sappy music.
  • John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    Looks like more than 100 Tory rebels (there will be Lib Dems and Labour among the Noes)
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    maaarsh said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Covid certification.
    Yes 369
    NO 126

    Maj 243

    You mean vaccine passports?

    Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
    Remember some of the apparent rebels are Scottish Tory MPs presumably abstaining on principle, like the SNP and Albannaichaid do. English regs and all that.
    abstaining on principle doesn't make any difference to the 126 votes against. If 101 Tories voted against without the scots even getting out of bed, that's a pretty good warning shot across the bows. Not sure how big the pay roll vote is right now, but if you knock them out and the creeps who still think they'll get preferrment, you're getting on for a backbench majority showing where the true conservative position is.
  • maaarsh said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Covid certification.
    Yes 369
    NO 126

    Maj 243

    You mean vaccine passports?

    Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
    Given that Boris thinks that restrictions can be ignored by himself, his family and his mates he's going to struggle to get Conservative MPs to vote for more restrictions on their constituents.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    maaarsh said:

    Carnyx said:

    maaarsh said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Covid certification.
    Yes 369
    NO 126

    Maj 243

    You mean vaccine passports?

    Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
    Remember some of the apparent rebels are Scottish Tory MPs presumably abstaining on principle, like the SNP and Albannaichaid do. English regs and all that.
    abstaining on principle doesn't make any difference to the 126 votes against. If 101 Tories voted against without the scots even getting out of bed, that's a pretty good warning shot across the bows.
    The clown no longer commands his troops, for sure.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Sky think 101 Tory rebels, but no detail. Predictable comments from Streeting and Rigby.

    Remains to be seen if any of the rebels are able to pick up crayons to write letters to 1922 Committee.
  • If Omicron is as bad as people fear we're going to have a plethora of by elections.

    The Lib Dem leader, Labour shadow chancellor, Labour shadow transport sec, Labour shadow education sec have all tested positive for Covid.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1470824536820129793

    We might get to find out which MPs are anti-vaxxers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,818
    dr_spyn said:

    Sky think 101 Tory rebels, but no detail. Predictable comments from Streeting and Rigby.

    Remains to be seen if any of the rebels are able to pick up crayons to write letters to 1922 Committee.

    https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1181#noes

    I see the DUP are split 2:3.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    103 Tory rebels according to Geoffrey Clifton-Brown.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2021
    Ok, I've now upgraded my self from "not worried about Omicron at all" to "a little bit nervous" unless i am misreading the data.

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

    This shows deaths doubling from week 47 to 48 and then doubling again week 48 to 49?

    Have I read that right?
  • Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky think 101 Tory rebels, but no detail. Predictable comments from Streeting and Rigby.

    Remains to be seen if any of the rebels are able to pick up crayons to write letters to 1922 Committee.

    https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1181#noes

    I see the DUP are split 2:3.
    That is the face covering vote
  • Superb move by Starmer
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Yes 385
    No 100
    Majority 285
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you only click on one tweet this week, make it this one.

    Watch all the way through.

    https://twitter.com/PonchoRebound/status/1470570632157048832

    Saw it a while ago and genuinely surprised anyone thought it was 'real' .
    It's not real, then?
    @PonchoRebound

    About an hour after I posted the video, I was linked to the full version of the video, which is apparently a Dhar Mann-style inspirational video by Cris Elmasry.

    So, credit to the artist:
    m.facebook.com
    Cris Elmasry - كريس المصرى - Whatever your problem is, don’t stop...
    Whatever your problem is, don’t stop helping people مهما كانت مشكلتك ، لا تتوقف عن مساعدة الناس this page’s videos are intended for entertainment...
    Eize Basa
    ·
    12h
    It’s a bummer for sure, BUT it’s also an interesting lesson in how important editing and framing is to the craft of filmmaking: the grainy, low res, cropped, and silent version I posted FEELS authentic in a way the real video just doesn’t, with its HD quality and sappy music.
    Some years ago, I was walking up the steep hill on Hampstead high street. There was a massive traffic jam. This was caused by someone having left their Lamborghini Diablo parked in the middle of the road, door up. The colour of the car was a kind of speckled metallic purple - the ugliest paint job I have ever seen.

    The driver was of orange ethnicity, indescribable hair, with a number of gold chains and a watch the size of a small country.

    He was engaged in picking up an old ladies shopping, oblivious to all the blaring horns.

    As I watched he finished, carried the shopping to where the old lady sat at the side of the road, got in his car and drove off. As one might expect, he tooted his horn. Again, as one would expect, the horn noise was an execrable digitisation of bad music.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    Indeed, hopefully the clown is now neutered.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    MaxPB said:

    Labour have got Boris's balls in a vice.

    Surely it was a wizard wheeze from Johnson to blame Starmer for the passports. He's good you know!

    And all this kerfuffle and we have all forgotten about Partygate. Crossover before Christmas.
  • MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    I think you have that spot on

    Lockdown is over
  • MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    He's also fucked if he's seen to personally break any restriction from now on.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.

    Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.

    Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
  • NHS vax vote passes 385:100
  • dixiedean said:

    How many of the freedom loving Tory rebel MPs are going to maintain that line when it comes to voting on NHS workers' freedom to go unvaccinated?

    Or indeed removing citizenship in secret.
    I know that is relatively minor compared to having to wear a bit of cloth.
    But it is the principle you see.
    The "Screaming toddler" principle???
  • 96 conservatives voted against according to the HOC app
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    He's also fucked if he's seen to personally break any restriction from now on.
    Nobody in authority seems to have minded so far. Why would that change?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    I think you have that spot on

    Lockdown is over
    Let's see what happens over the next month or so. An electorate will punish a government if they feel they are not doing enough during a time of national crisis, self preservation may kick in.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Delighted to see my MP (Jonathan Lord) voting for liberty. :)
  • Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited December 2021
    So BoJo's lost 1/3rd of his party. Not an optimal position to be in. For all the 'rebellion is crumbling' talk, that's a decent amount up on expected numbers. Very happy to see that the LDs have remembered what the first half of their name means.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    Carnyx said:

    Try not to have an aneurysm when reading this.

    Money Makeover: ‘How do I pass on my £2m estate without paying inheritance tax?’

    Our 90-year-old reader wants to leave his property empire, that pays out more than £100,000, to his children


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/money-makeover/money-makeover-do-pass-2m-estate-without-paying-inheritance/

    ££. Can't read. How does he do it without giving it away and living 7 years???
    He follows the standard model. Put it in a structure, and rotate Directors.

    May cost him something to set it up, however.

    I can see a couple of people potentially having kittens.

    For me it really comes down to whether they are good landlords or not.

    In terms of his grandchildren living off his inherited wealth, I see no difference to Paul McCartney's grandchildren living off his work for 90 years after his death when they have made no contribution to it.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    edited December 2021
    And fair play to this lot...



    Also Corbyn, Lucas, and the Lib Dems.
  • Perhaps there is a reporting backlog or suchlike explanation but otherwise Spain has just had a huge weekly increase:

    14/12 26,136 cases, 58 deaths
    07/12 10,952 cases, 18 deaths

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
  • Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.

    The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    I don’t think it right to say lockdown is over but it is hard to see how one could be imposed now without significant damage to the Conservative Party. I’m not sure Johnson cares all that much about the Conservative Party but, nevertheless, it makes more restrictions marginally less likely.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    tlg86 said:
    Looks like only about 60% of Tory MPs voted with the government.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    TP voted aye. Good luck telling him that he's not an 'actual' Tory...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145

    Uh oh.

    EXCL: Were police aware of the Downing Street Christmas Party?

    ITV News understands that an alarm was triggered accidentally that night inside No 10, leading security/police to respond.

    So far the Met have declined to investigate.

    Tonight Downing Street and the Metropolitan Police say they do not comment on security matters.

    But sources inside No 10 have confirmed the story, questioning whether a police officer may have been within earshot of the alleged party.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party

    The Mirror are going to show Johnson there, I am sure of it
    The Mirror will show Johnson there, whether he was there or not.
  • Absolutely fantastic to see the Conseratives stand up for liberty and doing the right thing despite the three line whip. Tempted to rejoin the Party despite Boris after that result and to get a say in the next leadership contest.

    What a disgrace that there's no Opposition from the Opposition benches. Truly pathetic that Government and Opposition have to come from one party alone.
  • maaarsh said:

    Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.

    Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.

    Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.

    And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?

    I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    edited December 2021
    DougSeal said:

    I don’t think it right to say lockdown is over but it is hard to see how one could be imposed now without significant damage to the Conservative Party. I’m not sure Johnson cares all that much about the Conservative Party but, nevertheless, it makes more restrictions marginally less likely.

    Well, it would depend on the circumstances.

    If a variant was to emerge that avoided all vaccines, was highly transmissible and had the death rate of the original virus or delta then fair enough. A lockdown would be needed.

    Fortunately Omicron isn't that variant (at least it doesn't seem to be)
  • Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.

    The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby

    They can't bring down a government they do not trust. Tory MPs can.

  • MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    I think you have that spot on

    Lockdown is over
    3rd Jan.

    It will happen now.

    Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Looks like Boris’ lies have caught up to him.

    Good.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.

    The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
    The LDs were disingenuous opportunists tonight. I am disappointed.

    The Labour rebels were by and large Corbynista Tories (who furnished Johnson with his landslide).

    Anyway how did Jeremy Halfwit vote?
  • Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.

    The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
    They can't bring down a government they do not trust. Tory MPs can.

    They will not do that and listening to some interviewed tonight they actually endorsed Boris which seems quite a bit bizarre
  • maaarsh said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Covid certification.
    Yes 369
    NO 126

    Maj 243

    You mean vaccine passports?

    Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
    You mean Government sources (presumably the Whips' Office) spread a misleading rumour to try to minimise a rebellion?

    Surely not.

    (Serious point- this kind of bluff works until it doesn't. If it fails once, it loses credibility for the next time.)
  • MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    He's also fucked if he's seen to personally break any restriction from now on.
    Nobody in authority seems to have minded so far. Why would that change?
    Because his authority and popularity have drained away.
  • John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2m
    Almost twice as big as previous largest rebellion of Johnson's premiership, 55 last Dec
  • MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    I think you have that spot on

    Lockdown is over
    3rd Jan.

    It will happen now.

    Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
    No chance. Literally zero chance.

    This is a massive shot across the bows. Over a hundred votes is nearly twice as many as would be needed for letters to trigger a VONC.

    If Boris attempts lockdown his party will remove him. This madness is over.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited December 2021
    Also voting No:

    Green:
    Caroline Lucas

    Ind:
    Jeremy Corbyn

    Labour (8):
    Diane Abbott
    Apsana Begum
    Dawn Butler
    Emma Lewell-Buck
    Clive Lewis
    Rebecca Long Bailey
    Bell Ribeiro-Addy
    Graham Stringer

    10 LDs
    6 DUP

    https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1182#noes
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.

    The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
    The LDs were disingenuous opportunists tonight. I am disappointed.

    The Labour rebels were by and large Corbynista Tories (who furnished Johnson with his landslide).

    Anyway how did Jeremy Halfwit vote?
    Hunt voted for.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    maaarsh said:

    Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.

    Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.

    Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.

    Posts like this and the other so-called "libertarians" on here are going to look so ridiculous in January.

    I accept that some on the hard right don't care about killing people for a profit but 99% of the British people do.
  • Got caught by change of thread so will repeat my intuitive speculation. Based on nothing more than guessing at BJ's character I have a strong feeling he will resign next year particularly if some sort of face saving reason can be concocted. He craves popularity and a dilettante easy life and probably finds the role of PM very stressful particularly in a crisis. 24/7 scrutiny is a nightmare to him and has only happened as PM. He will not want to lose GE or be forced out by a major scandal but he must know one of those is waiting down the line.
  • maaarsh said:

    Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.

    Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.

    Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.

    And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?

    I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
    Javid chance to succeed Boris ended tonight
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    He's also fucked if he's seen to personally break any restriction from now on.
    Nobody in authority seems to have minded so far. Why would that change?
    Because his authority and popularity have drained away.
    I am convinced neither of those assertions are correct in the medium term. It may look that way now, but by the middle of January?
  • Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.

    If you are not part of their clique they do not seem to give a .......
  • Got caught by change of thread so will repeat my intuitive speculation. Based on nothing more than guessing at BJ's character I have a strong feeling he will resign next year particularly if some sort of face saving reason can be concocted. He craves popularity and a dilettante easy life and probably finds the role of PM very stressful particularly in a crisis. 24/7 scrutiny is a nightmare to him and has only happened as PM. He will not want to lose GE or be forced out by a major scandal but he must know one of those is waiting down the line.

    I think you have an excellent point about the popularity thing. What must this being unpopular be doing to his soul?

    He wont be able to stick to it too long before looking for a way out.

  • Caroline Lucas
    @CarolineLucas
    ·
    7m
    Vote on mandatory Covid passes won 369 to 126 but big Tory rebellion. Not v. comfortable sharing voting lobby with rebels, but my reasons for voting against mandatory passes are clear: they undermine trust & risk entrenching opposition. Vax should be done with community not to it
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,913
    edited December 2021
    Quite a disappointing Lab vote against compulsory NHS vax from the unions' pov.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Oppositions often vote against the government on the basis that bills "don't go far enough". Why didn't Starmer do this tonight? That would be that for Johnson.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    I think you have that spot on

    Lockdown is over
    3rd Jan.

    It will happen now.

    Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
    No chance. Literally zero chance.

    This is a massive shot across the bows. Over a hundred votes is nearly twice as many as would be needed for letters to trigger a VONC.

    If Boris attempts lockdown his party will remove him. This madness is over.
    I don't think you can say there is zero chance when we don't know where we are going to be in a month or two time. A week is a long time in Politics and we are heading into a period of uncertainty with Covid.

    I would say a lockdown right now is extremely unlikely but I can't rule it out. Conservative MPs will have to back a lockdown if the next couple of months are horrific, I am certain of that or they will lose their job come the next election.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    I think you have that spot on

    Lockdown is over
    I am nowhere near as confident as you two. A darkness washes over me as I think about it. The idea of ongoing lockdowns even after all the medical advancement of the last 2 years fills me with more dread than a premature death.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    maaarsh said:

    Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.

    The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
    The LDs were disingenuous opportunists tonight. I am disappointed.

    The Labour rebels were by and large Corbynista Tories (who furnished Johnson with his landslide).

    Anyway how did Jeremy Halfwit vote?
    Hunt voted for.
    Not that Jeremy! The really, really useless one.

    He voted with the libertarian right, now there's a surprise.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    tlg86 said:

    Oppositions often vote against the government on the basis that bills "don't go far enough". Why didn't Starmer do this tonight? That would be that for Johnson.

    Because why remove your best weapon? Keeping the incompetent idiot in place helps Starmer.
  • MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    I think you have that spot on

    Lockdown is over
    3rd Jan.

    It will happen now.

    Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
    No chance. Literally zero chance.

    This is a massive shot across the bows. Over a hundred votes is nearly twice as many as would be needed for letters to trigger a VONC.

    If Boris attempts lockdown his party will remove him. This madness is over.
    We shall see, shortly.

    Perhaps too shortly.

    Don't get me wrong, I do not want lockdown. It would be a catastrophe for economy, schools and mental health.

    But the modellers are on the march again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    maaarsh said:

    Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.

    Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.

    Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.

    And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?

    I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
    Javid chance to succeed Boris ended tonight
    No Minister of Health has made it to the top job since the NHS started.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Poorly aged tweets:

    "Ministers leaves 22s: “rebels are haemorrhaging.”

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1470817384105664519
  • MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    He's also fucked if he's seen to personally break any restriction from now on.
    Nobody in authority seems to have minded so far. Why would that change?
    Because his authority and popularity have drained away.
    I am convinced neither of those assertions are correct in the medium term. It may look that way now, but by the middle of January?
    For that to happen Boris needs a very good winter.

    Which means a minimal hit to the UK while European countries get hammered by Delta and Omicron.

    Its possible though that does lead to many Conservative MPs then thinking that new restrictions were unnecessary.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    edited December 2021

    Got caught by change of thread so will repeat my intuitive speculation. Based on nothing more than guessing at BJ's character I have a strong feeling he will resign next year particularly if some sort of face saving reason can be concocted. He craves popularity and a dilettante easy life and probably finds the role of PM very stressful particularly in a crisis. 24/7 scrutiny is a nightmare to him and has only happened as PM. He will not want to lose GE or be forced out by a major scandal but he must know one of those is waiting down the line.

    Yeah Boris is done but a way will be found that lets his bow out gracefully "on his own terms" even it's not really on his own terms at all LOL
  • MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    I think you have that spot on

    Lockdown is over
    3rd Jan.

    It will happen now.

    Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
    Problem is that, if things get out of hand (and is anyone certain they won't?)... If too many people get sick at once... lockdown (plus or minus light) is literally the only short-term fix we have. That was even true in the sombreo-squashing days.

    Now I hope we don't need it. That we're collectively immune enough to get through this without a disaster. That the next three months are scary for NHS planners, but not meltdowny, and then it's basically over. But I can't be sure.

    And if the politics of people who think they're libertarian but are actually just selfish delays a grimly necessary step in the future, that's a bad thing.
  • Chameleon said:

    Poorly aged tweets:

    "Ministers leaves 22s: “rebels are haemorrhaging.”

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1470817384105664519

    Haemorrhaging outrage that is.
  • Foxy said:

    maaarsh said:

    Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.

    Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.

    Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.

    And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?

    I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
    Javid chance to succeed Boris ended tonight
    No Minister of Health has made it to the top job since the NHS started.
    Like it. Only on PB.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,706
    edited December 2021
    maaarsh said:

    Sunak abstained.

    No way????????
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Chameleon said:

    Poorly aged tweets:

    "Ministers leaves 22s: “rebels are haemorrhaging.”

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1470817384105664519

    No 10’s comms and expectation management, let alone the Tory whipping operation, are yet again shown to be diabolical
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    maaarsh said:

    Sunak abstained.

    Oooo
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    maaarsh said:

    Sunak abstained.

    No way????????
    No doubt they’ll come out with some bullshit that he was paired
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    maaarsh said:

    Sunak abstained.

    No way????????
    I'm sure he had a terribly important excuse...
  • maaarsh said:

    Sunak abstained.

    That's got to be a pre-approved pairing because he's somewhere important... Hasn't it?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    I think you have that spot on

    Lockdown is over
    3rd Jan.

    It will happen now.

    Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
    Problem is that, if things get out of hand (and is anyone certain they won't?)... If too many people get sick at once... lockdown (plus or minus light) is literally the only short-term fix we have. That was even true in the sombreo-squashing days.

    Now I hope we don't need it. That we're collectively immune enough to get through this without a disaster. That the next three months are scary for NHS planners, but not meltdowny, and then it's basically over. But I can't be sure.

    And if the politics of people who think they're libertarian but are actually just selfish delays a grimly necessary step in the future, that's a bad thing.
    If hospitalisations and death spiral, there will be a lockdown.
    If they don't, there won't.

  • iain watson
    @iainjwatson
    ·
    4m
    Covid passes become law in England despite
    @conservatives rebellion


  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Got caught by change of thread so will repeat my intuitive speculation. Based on nothing more than guessing at BJ's character I have a strong feeling he will resign next year particularly if some sort of face saving reason can be concocted. He craves popularity and a dilettante easy life and probably finds the role of PM very stressful particularly in a crisis. 24/7 scrutiny is a nightmare to him and has only happened as PM. He will not want to lose GE or be forced out by a major scandal but he must know one of those is waiting down the line.

    Not sure about that. The whole Eton, Pop, Bullingdon thing is about being in with the in crowd, not with the proletariat. You don't get more in with any crowd than by being the one who can issue invites to dinner at no 10 or weekends at Chequers. Plus I am sure TSE is right about him wanting to outlast Cameron as PM.
  • Steve Baker MP FRSA
    @SteveBakerHW
    ·
    21m
    96 Con plus 2 tellers
  • MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    I think you have that spot on

    Lockdown is over
    3rd Jan.

    It will happen now.

    Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
    Problem is that, if things get out of hand (and is anyone certain they won't?)... If too many people get sick at once... lockdown (plus or minus light) is literally the only short-term fix we have. That was even true in the sombreo-squashing days.

    Now I hope we don't need it. That we're collectively immune enough to get through this without a disaster. That the next three months are scary for NHS planners, but not meltdowny, and then it's basically over. But I can't be sure.

    And if the politics of people who think they're libertarian but are actually just selfish delays a grimly necessary step in the future, that's a bad thing.
    There might be fewer of them after omicron has gone through. The virus appears to be deaf to Libertarian reasoning...
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Alistair said:
    who/what is Shimao

    sorry if a stupid question.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    Quite a disappointing Lab vote against compulsory NHS vax from the unions' pov.

    Consider the demographics of vaccine refusal. No choice but to vote against.
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