If i was forced to describe the regional case figures in England using only sound effects i would select a rocket ship for London.
Again, if we're allowed to obsess over regional subsamples, the furthest along and most instructive is Gautang, where the rocket ship has become a hot air balloon, hopefully soon to become a rock.
Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
How many of the freedom loving Tory rebel MPs are going to maintain that line when it comes to voting on NHS workers' freedom to go unvaccinated?
I'd be fine with it being brought in for new staff, but it seems a bit rushed and counterproductive to mandate vaccines for existing NHS/care home staff in my opinion.
Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
If i was forced to describe the regional case figures in England using only sound effects i would select a rocket ship for London.
Again, if we're allowed to obsess over regional subsamples, the furthest along and most instructive is Gautang, where the rocket ship has become a hot air balloon, hopefully soon to become a rock.
London data....
What's your point, I don't remotely deny there'll be lots of cases. The question is how quickly they level off and Gauteng is the relevant region to be following.
Your 7 day averages smooths things out but on the latest day's data the number of covid parients in hospital in London fell, and remains around half last year.
Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
Remember some of the apparent rebels are Scottish Tory MPs presumably abstaining on principle, like the SNP and Albannaichaid do. English regs and all that.
About an hour after I posted the video, I was linked to the full version of the video, which is apparently a Dhar Mann-style inspirational video by Cris Elmasry.
So, credit to the artist: m.facebook.com Cris Elmasry - كريس المصرى - Whatever your problem is, don’t stop... Whatever your problem is, don’t stop helping people مهما كانت مشكلتك ، لا تتوقف عن مساعدة الناس this page’s videos are intended for entertainment... Eize Basa · 12h It’s a bummer for sure, BUT it’s also an interesting lesson in how important editing and framing is to the craft of filmmaking: the grainy, low res, cropped, and silent version I posted FEELS authentic in a way the real video just doesn’t, with its HD quality and sappy music.
Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
Remember some of the apparent rebels are Scottish Tory MPs presumably abstaining on principle, like the SNP and Albannaichaid do. English regs and all that.
abstaining on principle doesn't make any difference to the 126 votes against. If 101 Tories voted against without the scots even getting out of bed, that's a pretty good warning shot across the bows. Not sure how big the pay roll vote is right now, but if you knock them out and the creeps who still think they'll get preferrment, you're getting on for a backbench majority showing where the true conservative position is.
Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
Given that Boris thinks that restrictions can be ignored by himself, his family and his mates he's going to struggle to get Conservative MPs to vote for more restrictions on their constituents.
Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
Remember some of the apparent rebels are Scottish Tory MPs presumably abstaining on principle, like the SNP and Albannaichaid do. English regs and all that.
abstaining on principle doesn't make any difference to the 126 votes against. If 101 Tories voted against without the scots even getting out of bed, that's a pretty good warning shot across the bows.
The clown no longer commands his troops, for sure.
About an hour after I posted the video, I was linked to the full version of the video, which is apparently a Dhar Mann-style inspirational video by Cris Elmasry.
So, credit to the artist: m.facebook.com Cris Elmasry - كريس المصرى - Whatever your problem is, don’t stop... Whatever your problem is, don’t stop helping people مهما كانت مشكلتك ، لا تتوقف عن مساعدة الناس this page’s videos are intended for entertainment... Eize Basa · 12h It’s a bummer for sure, BUT it’s also an interesting lesson in how important editing and framing is to the craft of filmmaking: the grainy, low res, cropped, and silent version I posted FEELS authentic in a way the real video just doesn’t, with its HD quality and sappy music.
Some years ago, I was walking up the steep hill on Hampstead high street. There was a massive traffic jam. This was caused by someone having left their Lamborghini Diablo parked in the middle of the road, door up. The colour of the car was a kind of speckled metallic purple - the ugliest paint job I have ever seen.
The driver was of orange ethnicity, indescribable hair, with a number of gold chains and a watch the size of a small country.
He was engaged in picking up an old ladies shopping, oblivious to all the blaring horns.
As I watched he finished, carried the shopping to where the old lady sat at the side of the road, got in his car and drove off. As one might expect, he tooted his horn. Again, as one would expect, the horn noise was an execrable digitisation of bad music.
Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.
By "actual Tories" I take it you mean Chope, Davies, Bridgen, Bone, Swain, Francoise, McVey and any number of other starry eyed patriots. Quite frankly you can shove your "actual Tories" where the sun don't shine.
Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.
I think you have that spot on
Lockdown is over
Let's see what happens over the next month or so. An electorate will punish a government if they feel they are not doing enough during a time of national crisis, self preservation may kick in.
Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
So BoJo's lost 1/3rd of his party. Not an optimal position to be in. For all the 'rebellion is crumbling' talk, that's a decent amount up on expected numbers. Very happy to see that the LDs have remembered what the first half of their name means.
££. Can't read. How does he do it without giving it away and living 7 years???
He follows the standard model. Put it in a structure, and rotate Directors.
May cost him something to set it up, however.
I can see a couple of people potentially having kittens.
For me it really comes down to whether they are good landlords or not.
In terms of his grandchildren living off his inherited wealth, I see no difference to Paul McCartney's grandchildren living off his work for 90 years after his death when they have made no contribution to it.
Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
I don’t think it right to say lockdown is over but it is hard to see how one could be imposed now without significant damage to the Conservative Party. I’m not sure Johnson cares all that much about the Conservative Party but, nevertheless, it makes more restrictions marginally less likely.
Absolutely fantastic to see the Conseratives stand up for liberty and doing the right thing despite the three line whip. Tempted to rejoin the Party despite Boris after that result and to get a say in the next leadership contest.
What a disgrace that there's no Opposition from the Opposition benches. Truly pathetic that Government and Opposition have to come from one party alone.
Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?
I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
I don’t think it right to say lockdown is over but it is hard to see how one could be imposed now without significant damage to the Conservative Party. I’m not sure Johnson cares all that much about the Conservative Party but, nevertheless, it makes more restrictions marginally less likely.
Well, it would depend on the circumstances.
If a variant was to emerge that avoided all vaccines, was highly transmissible and had the death rate of the original virus or delta then fair enough. A lockdown would be needed.
Fortunately Omicron isn't that variant (at least it doesn't seem to be)
Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
They can't bring down a government they do not trust. Tory MPs can.
Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
The LDs were disingenuous opportunists tonight. I am disappointed.
The Labour rebels were by and large Corbynista Tories (who furnished Johnson with his landslide).
Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
They can't bring down a government they do not trust. Tory MPs can.
They will not do that and listening to some interviewed tonight they actually endorsed Boris which seems quite a bit bizarre
Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
You mean Government sources (presumably the Whips' Office) spread a misleading rumour to try to minimise a rebellion?
Surely not.
(Serious point- this kind of bluff works until it doesn't. If it fails once, it loses credibility for the next time.)
Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
The LDs were disingenuous opportunists tonight. I am disappointed.
The Labour rebels were by and large Corbynista Tories (who furnished Johnson with his landslide).
Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
Posts like this and the other so-called "libertarians" on here are going to look so ridiculous in January.
I accept that some on the hard right don't care about killing people for a profit but 99% of the British people do.
Got caught by change of thread so will repeat my intuitive speculation. Based on nothing more than guessing at BJ's character I have a strong feeling he will resign next year particularly if some sort of face saving reason can be concocted. He craves popularity and a dilettante easy life and probably finds the role of PM very stressful particularly in a crisis. 24/7 scrutiny is a nightmare to him and has only happened as PM. He will not want to lose GE or be forced out by a major scandal but he must know one of those is waiting down the line.
Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?
I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
If you are not part of their clique they do not seem to give a .......
Got caught by change of thread so will repeat my intuitive speculation. Based on nothing more than guessing at BJ's character I have a strong feeling he will resign next year particularly if some sort of face saving reason can be concocted. He craves popularity and a dilettante easy life and probably finds the role of PM very stressful particularly in a crisis. 24/7 scrutiny is a nightmare to him and has only happened as PM. He will not want to lose GE or be forced out by a major scandal but he must know one of those is waiting down the line.
I think you have an excellent point about the popularity thing. What must this being unpopular be doing to his soul?
He wont be able to stick to it too long before looking for a way out.
Caroline Lucas @CarolineLucas · 7m Vote on mandatory Covid passes won 369 to 126 but big Tory rebellion. Not v. comfortable sharing voting lobby with rebels, but my reasons for voting against mandatory passes are clear: they undermine trust & risk entrenching opposition. Vax should be done with community not to it
Oppositions often vote against the government on the basis that bills "don't go far enough". Why didn't Starmer do this tonight? That would be that for Johnson.
Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.
I think you have that spot on
Lockdown is over
3rd Jan.
It will happen now.
Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
No chance. Literally zero chance.
This is a massive shot across the bows. Over a hundred votes is nearly twice as many as would be needed for letters to trigger a VONC.
If Boris attempts lockdown his party will remove him. This madness is over.
I don't think you can say there is zero chance when we don't know where we are going to be in a month or two time. A week is a long time in Politics and we are heading into a period of uncertainty with Covid.
I would say a lockdown right now is extremely unlikely but I can't rule it out. Conservative MPs will have to back a lockdown if the next couple of months are horrific, I am certain of that or they will lose their job come the next election.
Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.
I think you have that spot on
Lockdown is over
I am nowhere near as confident as you two. A darkness washes over me as I think about it. The idea of ongoing lockdowns even after all the medical advancement of the last 2 years fills me with more dread than a premature death.
Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
The LDs were disingenuous opportunists tonight. I am disappointed.
The Labour rebels were by and large Corbynista Tories (who furnished Johnson with his landslide).
Anyway how did Jeremy Halfwit vote?
Hunt voted for.
Not that Jeremy! The really, really useless one.
He voted with the libertarian right, now there's a surprise.
Oppositions often vote against the government on the basis that bills "don't go far enough". Why didn't Starmer do this tonight? That would be that for Johnson.
Because why remove your best weapon? Keeping the incompetent idiot in place helps Starmer.
Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?
I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
Javid chance to succeed Boris ended tonight
No Minister of Health has made it to the top job since the NHS started.
Got caught by change of thread so will repeat my intuitive speculation. Based on nothing more than guessing at BJ's character I have a strong feeling he will resign next year particularly if some sort of face saving reason can be concocted. He craves popularity and a dilettante easy life and probably finds the role of PM very stressful particularly in a crisis. 24/7 scrutiny is a nightmare to him and has only happened as PM. He will not want to lose GE or be forced out by a major scandal but he must know one of those is waiting down the line.
Yeah Boris is done but a way will be found that lets his bow out gracefully "on his own terms" even it's not really on his own terms at all LOL
Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.
I think you have that spot on
Lockdown is over
3rd Jan.
It will happen now.
Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
Problem is that, if things get out of hand (and is anyone certain they won't?)... If too many people get sick at once... lockdown (plus or minus light) is literally the only short-term fix we have. That was even true in the sombreo-squashing days.
Now I hope we don't need it. That we're collectively immune enough to get through this without a disaster. That the next three months are scary for NHS planners, but not meltdowny, and then it's basically over. But I can't be sure.
And if the politics of people who think they're libertarian but are actually just selfish delays a grimly necessary step in the future, that's a bad thing.
Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?
I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
Javid chance to succeed Boris ended tonight
No Minister of Health has made it to the top job since the NHS started.
Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.
I think you have that spot on
Lockdown is over
3rd Jan.
It will happen now.
Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
Problem is that, if things get out of hand (and is anyone certain they won't?)... If too many people get sick at once... lockdown (plus or minus light) is literally the only short-term fix we have. That was even true in the sombreo-squashing days.
Now I hope we don't need it. That we're collectively immune enough to get through this without a disaster. That the next three months are scary for NHS planners, but not meltdowny, and then it's basically over. But I can't be sure.
And if the politics of people who think they're libertarian but are actually just selfish delays a grimly necessary step in the future, that's a bad thing.
If hospitalisations and death spiral, there will be a lockdown. If they don't, there won't.
Comments
For - 369
Against - 126
Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.
I'd rather they defend the freedoms of the vaccinated.
PS Thanks Junior!
Your 7 day averages smooths things out but on the latest day's data the number of covid parients in hospital in London fell, and remains around half last year.
I know that is relatively minor compared to having to wear a bit of cloth.
But it is the principle you see.
About an hour after I posted the video, I was linked to the full version of the video, which is apparently a Dhar Mann-style inspirational video by Cris Elmasry.
So, credit to the artist:
m.facebook.com
Cris Elmasry - كريس المصرى - Whatever your problem is, don’t stop...
Whatever your problem is, don’t stop helping people مهما كانت مشكلتك ، لا تتوقف عن مساعدة الناس this page’s videos are intended for entertainment...
Eize Basa
·
12h
It’s a bummer for sure, BUT it’s also an interesting lesson in how important editing and framing is to the craft of filmmaking: the grainy, low res, cropped, and silent version I posted FEELS authentic in a way the real video just doesn’t, with its HD quality and sappy music.
@JohnRentoul
Looks like more than 100 Tory rebels (there will be Lib Dems and Labour among the Noes)
Remains to be seen if any of the rebels are able to pick up crayons to write letters to 1922 Committee.
I see the DUP are split 2:3.
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
This shows deaths doubling from week 47 to 48 and then doubling again week 48 to 49?
Have I read that right?
No 100
Majority 285
The driver was of orange ethnicity, indescribable hair, with a number of gold chains and a watch the size of a small country.
He was engaged in picking up an old ladies shopping, oblivious to all the blaring horns.
As I watched he finished, carried the shopping to where the old lady sat at the side of the road, got in his car and drove off. As one might expect, he tooted his horn. Again, as one would expect, the horn noise was an execrable digitisation of bad music.
And all this kerfuffle and we have all forgotten about Partygate. Crossover before Christmas.
Lockdown is over
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
May cost him something to set it up, however.
I can see a couple of people potentially having kittens.
For me it really comes down to whether they are good landlords or not.
In terms of his grandchildren living off his inherited wealth, I see no difference to Paul McCartney's grandchildren living off his work for 90 years after his death when they have made no contribution to it.
Also Corbyn, Lucas, and the Lib Dems.
14/12 26,136 cases, 58 deaths
07/12 10,952 cases, 18 deaths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
What a disgrace that there's no Opposition from the Opposition benches. Truly pathetic that Government and Opposition have to come from one party alone.
I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
If a variant was to emerge that avoided all vaccines, was highly transmissible and had the death rate of the original virus or delta then fair enough. A lockdown would be needed.
Fortunately Omicron isn't that variant (at least it doesn't seem to be)
It will happen now.
Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
Good.
The Labour rebels were by and large Corbynista Tories (who furnished Johnson with his landslide).
Anyway how did Jeremy Halfwit vote?
Surely not.
(Serious point- this kind of bluff works until it doesn't. If it fails once, it loses credibility for the next time.)
@JohnRentoul
·
2m
Almost twice as big as previous largest rebellion of Johnson's premiership, 55 last Dec
This is a massive shot across the bows. Over a hundred votes is nearly twice as many as would be needed for letters to trigger a VONC.
If Boris attempts lockdown his party will remove him. This madness is over.
Green:
Caroline Lucas
Ind:
Jeremy Corbyn
Labour (8):
Diane Abbott
Apsana Begum
Dawn Butler
Emma Lewell-Buck
Clive Lewis
Rebecca Long Bailey
Bell Ribeiro-Addy
Graham Stringer
10 LDs
6 DUP
https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1182#noes
I accept that some on the hard right don't care about killing people for a profit but 99% of the British people do.
He wont be able to stick to it too long before looking for a way out.
Caroline Lucas
@CarolineLucas
·
7m
Vote on mandatory Covid passes won 369 to 126 but big Tory rebellion. Not v. comfortable sharing voting lobby with rebels, but my reasons for voting against mandatory passes are clear: they undermine trust & risk entrenching opposition. Vax should be done with community not to it
I would say a lockdown right now is extremely unlikely but I can't rule it out. Conservative MPs will have to back a lockdown if the next couple of months are horrific, I am certain of that or they will lose their job come the next election.
He voted with the libertarian right, now there's a surprise.
Perhaps too shortly.
Don't get me wrong, I do not want lockdown. It would be a catastrophe for economy, schools and mental health.
But the modellers are on the march again.
"Ministers leaves 22s: “rebels are haemorrhaging.”
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1470817384105664519
Which means a minimal hit to the UK while European countries get hammered by Delta and Omicron.
Its possible though that does lead to many Conservative MPs then thinking that new restrictions were unnecessary.
Now I hope we don't need it. That we're collectively immune enough to get through this without a disaster. That the next three months are scary for NHS planners, but not meltdowny, and then it's basically over. But I can't be sure.
And if the politics of people who think they're libertarian but are actually just selfish delays a grimly necessary step in the future, that's a bad thing.
https://twitter.com/TheLastBearSta1/status/1470837192507461632?t=M2ZQqykdABYfHzbtPPy4Zw&s=19
If they don't, there won't.
iain watson
@iainjwatson
·
4m
Covid passes become law in England despite
@conservatives rebellion