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Tories back as betting favourite in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    20 years ago I ended up on a weekend bender with at the time a former MP....they were surprisingly fun.

    Widdecombe or the Rev Iain Paisley Snr?
    Paisley was a noted teetotaller
    Not a very quiet man, nor afraid to host the occasional gathering.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Following the tremendous success of last nights broadcast. SKS has pre recorded his New Year Message

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hT9G9r3Hsv4
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785

    Pro_Rata said:

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    Its a real possibility you are right and the government should be prepared to open up very rapidly if it is a paper tiger.

    As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.

    Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
    I am not saying the government are right or wrong. I am saying the narrative are polar opposite and both double down on it. The GP lady is never off the telly telling everybody its so mild there is nothing to worry about, while Witty and Co have briefed the government the end of the world is nigh.

    The 200k figure is BS though.
    London has hit 10k reported cases per day and is still growing at above exponential (it's exponential factor is increasing as Omicron becomes dominant). Is 30k-40k per day impossible in London? No. Is the same rapid onset phase In other regions possible for Omicron within the next week or so. Sure.

    I don't think all the peaks will coincide, but 40k per day positives in London would translate to 300k ish nationally.

    300k is just 2.5% of the population testing positive in a week, for a variant with a lot b of the population to go at and relatively light social regulation.

    You just cannot declare it ridiculous. There has been wolf crying and silly stuff - I don't see this one as that.
  • Foxy said:

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
    29% better than original covid:

    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712705615028226?t=yCTHgB2gBi-arzeNrb2_nA&s=19
    By 'original covid' do they mean the spring 2020 covid ?

    Because IIRC Delta is more dangerous than that 'original covid'.

    So if Omicron is 29% less dangerous than 'original covid' then wouldn't it show an even greater reduction in risk compared with Delta ?

    Still early data and other caveats etc.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
    It can't be long before we start getting some information about virulence.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    Its a real possibility you are right and the government should be prepared to open up very rapidly if it is a paper tiger.

    As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.

    Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
    I am not saying the government are right or wrong. I am saying the narrative are polar opposite and both double down on it. The GP lady is never off the telly telling everybody its so mild there is nothing to worry about, while Witty and Co have briefed the government the end of the world is nigh.

    The 200k figure is BS though.
    London has hit 10k reported cases per day and is still growing at above exponential (it's exponential factor is increasing as Omicron becomes dominant). Is 30k-40k per day impossible in London? No. Is the same rapid onset phase In other regions possible for Omicron within the next week or so. Sure.

    I don't think all the peaks will coincide, but 40k per day positives in London would translate to 300k ish nationally.

    300k is just 2.5% of the population testing positive in a week, for a variant with a lot b of the population to go at and relatively light social regulation.

    You just cannot declare it ridiculous. There has been wolf crying and silly stuff - I don't see this one as that.
    You know this "model" isn't for 200k new cases a day next week, its for a million new cases a day by then....

    It was built off somebody taking a reported figure from a month ago, projecting forward to last week, then taking a guess-estimated percentage of that figure to be omicron, then applying a guess-estimated for the doubling rating and then projecting forward with no consideration for effect of behavioural change, vaccinations, boosters etc etc etc.

    A tiny change in any of those guess-estimated values or change in behaviour or accounting for vaccines results in a massive change to the headline number.

    They have done the absolute #1 no no of modelling, taking a single noisy point and projected forward.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    edited December 2021

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    Nothing.

    They will be back in February with a new warning about saving easter from Pi.

    That’s actually a decent piece of filmmaking by Sky. At last, someone has got off their arse, flown to SA and had a look about.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Foxy said:

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
    29% better than original covid:

    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712705615028226?t=yCTHgB2gBi-arzeNrb2_nA&s=19
    By 'original covid' do they mean the spring 2020 covid ?

    Because IIRC Delta is more dangerous than that 'original covid'.

    So if Omicron is 29% less dangerous than 'original covid' then wouldn't it show an even greater reduction in risk compared with Delta ?

    Still early data and other caveats etc.
    In their plots they have Delta as being less dangerous than the original variant:

    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712686828826630/photo/1
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    Its a real possibility you are right and the government should be prepared to open up very rapidly if it is a paper tiger.

    As with the possibility before that a large wave substantially increased case hospitalisation rates from current in the vaccinated: a factor that would be weak in SA but strong in the UK. the immune escape just give a wider range of unknowns and a wider range of genuinely credible outcomes.

    Defend the off stump, man, don't shoulder arms. The reverse swing bowler has come on and the ball could go anywhere.
    I am not saying the government are right or wrong. I am saying the narrative are polar opposite and both double down on it. The GP lady is never off the telly telling everybody its so mild there is nothing to worry about, while Witty and Co have briefed the government the end of the world is nigh.

    The 200k figure is BS though.
    London has hit 10k reported cases per day and is still growing at above exponential (it's exponential factor is increasing as Omicron becomes dominant). Is 30k-40k per day impossible in London? No. Is the same rapid onset phase In other regions possible for Omicron within the next week or so. Sure.

    I don't think all the peaks will coincide, but 40k per day positives in London would translate to 300k ish nationally.

    300k is just 2.5% of the population testing positive in a week, for a variant with a lot b of the population to go at and relatively light social regulation.

    You just cannot declare it ridiculous. There has been wolf crying and silly stuff - I don't see this one as that.
    Ah, the Javid 200k figure. BBC justified that do that to made some sense (there were extrapolated numbers involved), but even allowing for those gymnastics, it was BS.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Andy_JS said:

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
    It can't be long before we start getting some information about virulence.
    Delta 29% milder than the original Wuhan strain, according to today’s South African study.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    Foxy said:

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
    29% better than original covid:

    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712705615028226?t=yCTHgB2gBi-arzeNrb2_nA&s=19
    By 'original covid' do they mean the spring 2020 covid ?

    Because IIRC Delta is more dangerous than that 'original covid'.

    So if Omicron is 29% less dangerous than 'original covid' then wouldn't it show an even greater reduction in risk compared with Delta ?

    Still early data and other caveats etc.
    Yes that’s right, although I’m not sure anyone has crunched the numbers to do a vs Delta comparison.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    I think the point about tonight's Tory rebellion isn't really about the substance of the vote, which people can rightly hold different opinions on.

    It's the politics of it. Despite Boris's best efforts, including much personal cajoling, and that of the Whips, the number of rebels grew over the last few days rather than shrank.

    Boris has lost control of his parliamentary party, hasn't he?
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    20 years ago I ended up on a weekend bender with at the time a former MP....they were surprisingly fun.

    Widdecombe or the Rev Iain Paisley Snr?
    Paisley was a noted teetotaller
    Not a very quiet man, nor afraid to host the occasional gathering.
    True enough :D
  • theProletheProle Posts: 948
    edited December 2021

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
    Based on their showing to date, you could have ended that statement at word 7.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Foxy said:

    South Africa: Omicron cases displaying mild symptoms

    Its mild, really mild, nothing to worry about, Boris is scaremongering
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piNkHXdlLvE

    If Omicron does turn out to be nothing more than a fart....what will happen to all our genius 2 bn cases a day, NHS in meltdown modellers and experts?

    The narratives being put out are absolute polar opposites. SA look everybody just going about their daily lives, Witty is briefing the cabinet that their failure to lockdown will mean the NHS implodes in January.

    The models are really not much use unless we have some idea of virulence.
    29% better than original covid:

    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712705615028226?t=yCTHgB2gBi-arzeNrb2_nA&s=19
    By 'original covid' do they mean the spring 2020 covid ?

    Because IIRC Delta is more dangerous than that 'original covid'.

    So if Omicron is 29% less dangerous than 'original covid' then wouldn't it show an even greater reduction in risk compared with Delta ?

    Still early data and other caveats etc.
    This was their chart:


  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
    Definitely not the shit one with the crap food we have seen from Mirror.
    Only the Tories could break the law and still have a shit party.
    I dunno, I bet some of Starmer's get togethers are less than a @Leon level absinthe hoot.

    It's a question that might divert PB for a bit: which MP would have the best parties.*

    * Ken Clarke is a Lord and Alan Clark is dead. Asquith is far too long ago.
    One stands out a mile in this regard - Barry Gardiner.
    Yep. Public schoolboys know how to party.
    I can certainly envisage Gardo properly larging it, zero fucks given.
    Gardiner gave a very interesting interview to the Haileybury Society (which supports Old Haileyburians).
    The infamous ‘lost weekends’ lecture?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Disappointed in Jezza tonight

    "Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity."



  • Speaking of Paisley, and reflecting on another old favourite topic in this parish - Brexit - it is worth reflecting on where we were and were we are now

    https://youtu.be/ehIfDDIrHMs
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    20 years ago I ended up on a weekend bender with at the time a former MP....they were surprisingly fun.

    Widdecombe or the Rev Iain Paisley Snr?
    Paisley was a noted teetotaller
    Not a very quiet man, nor afraid to host the occasional gathering.
    Always a ready supply of cheddar cheese and pineapple on a stick at said gatherings.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    20 years ago I ended up on a weekend bender with at the time a former MP....they were surprisingly fun.

    Widdecombe or the Rev Iain Paisley Snr?
    Paisley was a noted teetotaller
    Not a very quiet man, nor afraid to host the occasional gathering.
    Always a ready supply of cheddar cheese and pineapple on a stick at said gatherings.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEsFtiruIok
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    20 years ago I ended up on a weekend bender with at the time a former MP....they were surprisingly fun.

    Widdecombe or the Rev Iain Paisley Snr?
    Paisley was a noted teetotaller
    Not a very quiet man, nor afraid to host the occasional gathering.
    Always a ready supply of cheddar cheese and pineapple on a stick at said gatherings.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEsFtiruIok
    Never gets old.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    https://www.politico.eu/article/france-choir-eu-agriculture-diplomats/

    France is setting up a choir for diplomats on the Special Committee on Agriculture (SCA), which each week prepares work for monthly meetings of national EU agriculture ministers. Rehearsals have already begun, according to several diplomats, with the ensemble aiming to perform live for their national ministers at a Council meeting in Strasbourg in February.

    France’s aim with the choir is to do something a little different and “innovative” during its time at the helm of the Council, one of the diplomats said.

    The “Anthem of Europe,” based on Ludwig van Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy,” will also be performed and diplomats have already started practicing it, as well as “Mamma Mia.”
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "The battle for North Shropshire
    The by-election is a referendum on Boris Johnson's leadership
    BY TANYA GOLD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/12/the-battle-for-north-shropshire/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    https://www.politico.eu/article/france-choir-eu-agriculture-diplomats/

    France is setting up a choir for diplomats on the Special Committee on Agriculture (SCA), which each week prepares work for monthly meetings of national EU agriculture ministers. Rehearsals have already begun, according to several diplomats, with the ensemble aiming to perform live for their national ministers at a Council meeting in Strasbourg in February.

    France’s aim with the choir is to do something a little different and “innovative” during its time at the helm of the Council, one of the diplomats said.

    The “Anthem of Europe,” based on Ludwig van Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy,” will also be performed and diplomats have already started practicing it, as well as “Mamma Mia.”

    Well, thank God for that.
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