Got caught by change of thread so will repeat my intuitive speculation. Based on nothing more than guessing at BJ's character I have a strong feeling he will resign next year particularly if some sort of face saving reason can be concocted. He craves popularity and a dilettante easy life and probably finds the role of PM very stressful particularly in a crisis. 24/7 scrutiny is a nightmare to him and has only happened as PM. He will not want to lose GE or be forced out by a major scandal but he must know one of those is waiting down the line.
Not sure about that. The whole Eton, Pop, Bullingdon thing is about being in with the in crowd, not with the proletariat. You don't get more in with any crowd than by being the one who can issue invites to dinner at no 10 or weekends at Chequers. Plus I am sure TSE is right about him wanting to outlast Cameron as PM.
Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.
I think you have that spot on
Lockdown is over
3rd Jan.
It will happen now.
Johnson will use Labour to batter it through the Commons, or even just executive power with a vote so delayed it is meaningless.
Problem is that, if things get out of hand (and is anyone certain they won't?)... If too many people get sick at once... lockdown (plus or minus light) is literally the only short-term fix we have. That was even true in the sombreo-squashing days.
Now I hope we don't need it. That we're collectively immune enough to get through this without a disaster. That the next three months are scary for NHS planners, but not meltdowny, and then it's basically over. But I can't be sure.
And if the politics of people who think they're libertarian but are actually just selfish delays a grimly necessary step in the future, that's a bad thing.
There might be fewer of them after omicron has gone through. The virus appears to be deaf to Libertarian reasoning...
Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
The LDs were disingenuous opportunists tonight. I am disappointed.
The Labour rebels were by and large Corbynista Tories (who furnished Johnson with his landslide).
Anyway how did Jeremy Halfwit vote?
The Lib Dems have been consistent in opposing vaccine passports on civil liberties and privacy grounds since they were first proposed earlier this year. You may not agree with them, but that's not being disingenuous or opportunistic.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Of course the JVCI has never said vaccination represented a higher risk than non-vaccination to those in their 20s, even viewed from the purely selfish perspective.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
Nobody is pushing an anti-vaccine argument, you numptoid wazzock. That is just not a thing which has happened. you are tilting at windmills, you are going into paroxysms over the safety of people who are a lot less obsessed with it than you are, and you think "meeting partners" is such an outlandish aspiration it needs putting in scare quotes. Odd person.
Sort of betting he has a comfortable home with plenty of space and lives with his partner and family. Not someone who lives alone in a cramped flat and hasnt been able to go find a date in two years almost or someone like me who hasn't seen their girlfriend in two years as she is afraid to return from australia where her children live because she might not be easily able to return. Typical "lockdown works for me" type.
Of course we could all fantasise about the private lives of people we know nothing about - probably with results equally inaccurate, though as far as inaccuracy goes, that was pretty spectacular.
Though really you must realise your hyperbolic fantasies have little enough to do with vaccination risk, and do little enough to justify anti-vaccine propaganda.
WTF are you talking about....I am fully vaxxed and get my booster on friday just fed up with cunts like you wanting total lock down because its "Fine for you" when many of us havent seen loved ones in almost two years fuck off you fucking twat. You showed your I am alright jack tendencies with your quoted bit about meeting people. I refuse point blank your lockdowns and restrictions and have absolutely no intention to be governed by your paranoia
Shitty Chinese property group. Foreign bond issuances by Chinese corporates have been a joke for years. The tightening of market liquidity I guess is finally leading these instruments to be priced at something closer to their fundamental value.
Must have been agreed, but still very odd to let it happen on a key vote where they could be questions of whether the government really agrees with itself. Leaves open the question of if he arranged to be unavailable deliberately.
Now neck and neck in the betting shops, Tories surging Lib Dems falling, probably due to which bet carries the most return. In truth neither is great. On the other hand, down on the ground Lib Dems apparently seen a dramatic increase in requests for Garden Stake boards, in several areas dominating the scene, usually a good sign of a party on the move. Might be misleading though, we will see.
Shitty Chinese property group. Foreign bond issuances by Chinese corporates have been a joke for years. The tightening of market liquidity I guess is finally leading these instruments to be priced at something closer to their fundamental value.
In the wake of Evergrand, that makes a lot of sense.
Half of backbench Tory MPs have made clear they do not trust the government to take decisions that will protect the lives and well-being of UK citizens - the single most important job a government has. If they have any honour about them at all, only one course of action is now open to them.
The lib dems, greens and the left of labour joined them in the lobby
The LDs were disingenuous opportunists tonight. I am disappointed.
The Labour rebels were by and large Corbynista Tories (who furnished Johnson with his landslide).
Anyway how did Jeremy Halfwit vote?
The Lib Dems have been consistent in opposing vaccine passports on civil liberties and privacy grounds since they were first proposed earlier this year. You may not agree with them, but that's not being disingenuous or opportunistic.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Of course the JVCI has never said vaccination represented a higher risk than non-vaccination to those in their 20s, even viewed from the purely selfish perspective.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
Nobody is pushing an anti-vaccine argument, you numptoid wazzock. That is just not a thing which has happened. you are tilting at windmills, you are going into paroxysms over the safety of people who are a lot less obsessed with it than you are, and you think "meeting partners" is such an outlandish aspiration it needs putting in scare quotes. Odd person.
Sort of betting he has a comfortable home with plenty of space and lives with his partner and family. Not someone who lives alone in a cramped flat and hasnt been able to go find a date in two years almost or someone like me who hasn't seen their girlfriend in two years as she is afraid to return from australia where her children live because she might not be easily able to return. Typical "lockdown works for me" type.
Of course we could all fantasise about the private lives of people we know nothing about - probably with results equally inaccurate, though as far as inaccuracy goes, that was pretty spectacular.
Though really you must realise your hyperbolic fantasies have little enough to do with vaccination risk, and do little enough to justify anti-vaccine propaganda.
WTF are you talking about....I am fully vaxxed and get my booster on friday just fed up with cunts like you wanting total lock down because its "Fine for you" when many of us havent seen loved ones in almost two years fuck off you fucking twat. You showed your I am alright jack tendencies with your quoted bit about meeting people. I refuse point blank your lockdowns and restrictions and have absolutely no intention to be governed by your paranoia
Shitty Chinese property group. Foreign bond issuances by Chinese corporates have been a joke for years. The tightening of market liquidity I guess is finally leading these instruments to be priced at something closer to their fundamental value.
Who could have predicted splurging cash into an obviously over heated property market entirely reliant on cheap loans was a bad plan?
Shitty Chinese property group. Foreign bond issuances by Chinese corporates have been a joke for years. The tightening of market liquidity I guess is finally leading these instruments to be priced at something closer to their fundamental value.
In the wake of Evergrand, that makes a lot of sense.
It’s not widely understood just how fucked the Chinese financial system is. I thought it was going to go in 2017 but they staggered on. But it won’t last forever. And when it does you won’t be able to move for people that claim it was obviously going to happen. Well remember here and now me saying the whole house of cards is going to collapse. If you had seen what’s really on the banks’ balance sheets and had a grasp of how bad deb its shifted around between state owned enterprises and back onto household savers, you’d agree with me.
Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?
I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
Javid chance to succeed Boris ended tonight
No Minister of Health has made it to the top job since the NHS started.
I think I'm right in saying only one ever has even before then?
No apology required. What I don't understand with people like him is the "I'm alright Jack" attack line which is universally applied to anyone arguing against restrictions. Everybody is vulnerable to this virus, so where does the "I'm alright" element of the claim come from?
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Of course the JVCI has never said vaccination represented a higher risk than non-vaccination to those in their 20s, even viewed from the purely selfish perspective.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
Nobody is pushing an anti-vaccine argument, you numptoid wazzock. That is just not a thing which has happened. you are tilting at windmills, you are going into paroxysms over the safety of people who are a lot less obsessed with it than you are, and you think "meeting partners" is such an outlandish aspiration it needs putting in scare quotes. Odd person.
Sort of betting he has a comfortable home with plenty of space and lives with his partner and family. Not someone who lives alone in a cramped flat and hasnt been able to go find a date in two years almost or someone like me who hasn't seen their girlfriend in two years as she is afraid to return from australia where her children live because she might not be easily able to return. Typical "lockdown works for me" type.
Of course we could all fantasise about the private lives of people we know nothing about - probably with results equally inaccurate, though as far as inaccuracy goes, that was pretty spectacular.
Though really you must realise your hyperbolic fantasies have little enough to do with vaccination risk, and do little enough to justify anti-vaccine propaganda.
WTF are you talking about....I am fully vaxxed and get my booster on friday just fed up with cunts like you wanting total lock down because its "Fine for you" when many of us havent seen loved ones in almost two years fuck off you fucking twat. You showed your I am alright jack tendencies with your quoted bit about meeting people. I refuse point blank your lockdowns and restrictions and have absolutely no intention to be governed by your paranoia
But what do you really think?
If I told you what I really think I would get banned
Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?
I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
Javid chance to succeed Boris ended tonight
No Minister of Health has made it to the top job since the NHS started.
I think I'm right in saying only one ever has even before then?
Shitty Chinese property group. Foreign bond issuances by Chinese corporates have been a joke for years. The tightening of market liquidity I guess is finally leading these instruments to be priced at something closer to their fundamental value.
In the wake of Evergrand, that makes a lot of sense.
It’s not widely understood just how fucked the Chinese financial system is. I thought it was going to go in 2017 but they staggered on. But it won’t last forever. And when it does you won’t be able to move for people that claim it was obviously going to happen. Well remember here and now me saying the whole house of cards is going to collapse. If you had seen what’s really on the banks’ balance sheets and had a grasp of how bad deb its shifted around between state owned enterprises and back onto household savers, you’d agree with me.
There is an interesting pattern to the problems and Xi playing various nationalist cards.
Shitty Chinese property group. Foreign bond issuances by Chinese corporates have been a joke for years. The tightening of market liquidity I guess is finally leading these instruments to be priced at something closer to their fundamental value.
Who could have predicted splurging cash into an obviously over heated property market entirely reliant on cheap loans was a bad plan?
Capital controls and under developed domestic capital markets mean household savers have little avenues for storing wealth than in the overheated domestic property market, and “wealth management products”, most of which are stuffed under the hood with bad loans that get extended forever.
It’s like a giant game of Tetris. The communist party continually trying to juggle each block of bad debt into the right shaped hole. But one day and I doubt it’ll be too long, the gameboy screen will be filled to the top with the blocks and it will be Game Over.
No apology required. What I don't understand with people like him is the "I'm alright Jack" attack line which is universally applied to anyone arguing against restrictions. Everybody is vulnerable to this virus, so where does the "I'm alright" element of the claim come from?
Everyone is vulnerable, me more than most. I am 53, have copd, asthma, I am a little overweight though only 15 lbs or so. However I live in a studio appartment so not much space. I haven't seen my gf in 2 years though we speak every day on discord. The restrictions have become worse than the disease as I quietly go mad. And idiots like him want to keep restrictions because they aren't suffering and make flippant remarks about "meeting partners"
Worth looking at what happens to Laurence Fox's 'reclaim' party in North Shropshire. Not suggesting that they stand any chance of winning, but their candidate (Martin Daubney) was previously MEP for the area. I think they will do better than the 2% or whatever Fox polled in London. If you want to give Boris a kicking because you are sick of Covid rules, then it is a good option.
Starmer’s right not to demand Boris resigns, isn’t he? It’s the political equivalent of Liverpool being 5-0 up and their fans singing Ole’s at the wheel. Labour’s best chance of winning is keeping Boris in place & letting tories blow up
Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.
He's also fucked if he's seen to personally break any restriction from now on.
Nobody in authority seems to have minded so far. Why would that change?
Because his authority and popularity have drained away.
I am convinced neither of those assertions are correct in the medium term. It may look that way now, but by the middle of January?
For that to happen Boris needs a very good winter.
Which means a minimal hit to the UK while European countries get hammered by Delta and Omicron.
Its possible though that does lead to many Conservative MPs then thinking that new restrictions were unnecessary.
Don't forget Johnson is lucky. Remember he has already beaten Partygate. No other previous PM would have managed that.
It is just flipping unbelievable. He is a mixture of Harry Houdini and a greased piglet. He is barely human in his elusiveness. Nailing Boris is like trying to pin jelly to a wall.
Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?
I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
Javid chance to succeed Boris ended tonight
No Minister of Health has made it to the top job since the NHS started.
I think I'm right in saying only one ever has even before then?
There's one pre-NHS
That's the one I had in mind!
Equally of course, only one Chief Whip, only one Secretary of State for Education, only four Home Secretaries since 1867.
If you want to be PM, don't have a domestic portfolio that maybe worthy but is usually a bed of nails.
No apology required. What I don't understand with people like him is the "I'm alright Jack" attack line which is universally applied to anyone arguing against restrictions. Everybody is vulnerable to this virus, so where does the "I'm alright" element of the claim come from?
Everyone is vulnerable, me more than most. I am 53, have copd, asthma, I am a little overweight though only 15 lbs or so. However I live in a studio appartment so not much space. I haven't seen my gf in 2 years though we speak every day on discord. The restrictions have become worse than the disease as I quietly go mad. And idiots like him want to keep restrictions because they aren't suffering and make flippant remarks about "meeting partners"
Well quite. And I am 60 and at risk for that alone. This arsehole claims to have no risk factors at all, and thinks he is crusading on behalf of you and me because we are cowering in dread of this toy disease. He is a wanker.
Shitty Chinese property group. Foreign bond issuances by Chinese corporates have been a joke for years. The tightening of market liquidity I guess is finally leading these instruments to be priced at something closer to their fundamental value.
In the wake of Evergrand, that makes a lot of sense.
It’s not widely understood just how fucked the Chinese financial system is. I thought it was going to go in 2017 but they staggered on. But it won’t last forever. And when it does you won’t be able to move for people that claim it was obviously going to happen. Well remember here and now me saying the whole house of cards is going to collapse. If you had seen what’s really on the banks’ balance sheets and had a grasp of how bad deb its shifted around between state owned enterprises and back onto household savers, you’d agree with me.
There is an interesting pattern to the problems and Xi playing various nationalist cards.
Yes. I have maintained for some time this is a sign of weakness not strength.
Starmer’s right not to demand Boris resigns, isn’t he? It’s the political equivalent of Liverpool being 5-0 up and their fans singing Ole’s at the wheel. Labour’s best chance of winning is keeping Boris in place & letting tories blow up
We are in 12 dimensional chess territory here. But unlike other situations that are actually incredibly simple that people fuck up by treating like they are hugely complex (see Hilary Clinton's campaign strategy team) I think this is hugely complex for Starmer to navigate. Every move he has has a huge amount of uncertainty are possible blowback attached to it along with huge reward.
How does Louie French celebrate becoming the new Tory MP for Old Bexley and Sidcup, after just a few days in the job? He votes against the PM! Blimey. You might think he believes he won the seat despite Boris Johnsonhttps://twitter.com/Peston/status/1470849613552926737/photo/1
Starmer’s right not to demand Boris resigns, isn’t he? It’s the political equivalent of Liverpool being 5-0 up and their fans singing Ole’s at the wheel. Labour’s best chance of winning is keeping Boris in place & letting tories blow up
Shitty Chinese property group. Foreign bond issuances by Chinese corporates have been a joke for years. The tightening of market liquidity I guess is finally leading these instruments to be priced at something closer to their fundamental value.
In the wake of Evergrand, that makes a lot of sense.
It’s not widely understood just how fucked the Chinese financial system is. I thought it was going to go in 2017 but they staggered on. But it won’t last forever. And when it does you won’t be able to move for people that claim it was obviously going to happen. Well remember here and now me saying the whole house of cards is going to collapse. If you had seen what’s really on the banks’ balance sheets and had a grasp of how bad deb its shifted around between state owned enterprises and back onto household savers, you’d agree with me.
There is an interesting pattern to the problems and Xi playing various nationalist cards.
Yes. I have maintained for some time this is a sign of weakness not strength.
Reading Herman Kahn and his hypothetical "Khrushchev" getting adventurous with respect to nuclear confrontation, due to weakness at home, is interesting. Written *before* the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Sorry, just to get this attack line straight, (and no fan of Boris am I).
Boris is too weak to force through rules against the wishes of a large part of his party and has pushed through something that has cross party support risking 1922 letters yes?
So a strong PM would say, “shit I’d better not do what I think/I’ve been advised by experts is right because I’m facing a rebellion that could topple me” and not “I’m weak so I need to make a stand against a large portion of my party despite that opposition”?
On that basis if Starmer goes against a large part of the Labour Party to weed out the cranks and anti-semites which would he supported by Tories then he is weak but if he cowers and bows to their opposition to him he’s strong?
A bit confused…… I would have thought Boris had actually just (whether you agree or not with the rules) just “discharged the basic functions of government”.
Really? Spoilt by the element of bad manners for me.
Contrary to what you were told last night lemons don't come easily off the tree when they are ripe. That's apples. Citrus you are always best to cut off with secateurs. Lemons are ripe when they are big enough to be worth picking. Additional fun fact: citrus turn from green to yellow/orange with a drop in temperature, not as a sign of ripeness. So in the tropics they stay green, and in temperate climates they are capable of turning back to green again come spring.
I honestly thought that we had got rid of most of the self important and pig ignorant twats in the Commons with the elimination of Change UK and the withdrawal of sundry Tory whips in 2019 but apparently not.
Sigh.
(this is an equal opportunity post designed to upset pretty much every segment equally)
The passing of the Covid passports are deeply regrettable. They are a tool of surveillance and have no meaningful utility or function in dealing with Covid, particularly as a) the vaccines do not prevent transmission of the virus and b) you can easily fake an LFT result. They are meaningless, but establish a framework for eventually introducing ID cards. The tory MPs were right to rebel against it.
The rebellion means that Johnsons position in his party is ruined. Why did he get himself in this position, for something that won't make any difference? It seems like he has lost his political judgement completely. It is not like he was relying on the opposition votes to do something really difficult and important. Maybe he can bury it and bluster his way back; but it supports the speculation that he doesn't have either wise or smart advisors around him.
The important news today is that I have discovered the existence of a movie called 'Gatwick Gangsters' starring Willie Thorne, Bobby George and Gary Bushell. My life will never be the same again
The important news today is that I have discovered the existence of a movie called 'Gatwick Gangsters' starring Willie Thorne, Bobby George and Gary Bushell. My life will never be the same again
The most poetic ending for Johnson's premiership would be if Theresa May seized power by negotiating an alternative covid deal and secured the backing of Labour backbenchers, led by Jeremy Corbyn.
The important news today is that I have discovered the existence of a movie called 'Gatwick Gangsters' starring Willie Thorne, Bobby George and Gary Bushell. My life will never be the same again
I am working on the script for a British caper movie. In it, a gang of has been gangsters steal money from a bunch of has been gangsters stealing money from a gang of has been gangsters making a mockney film about gangsters stealing money from gangsters.
Ominous for Boris Johnson. He makes a personal appeal to MPs and then over 100 vote against him or abstain an hour later. Whips had no idea how bad it would be - Johnson's allies claimed at 6.15pm the rebellion was "haemorrhaging". A party dangerously out of control
"This is a very significant blow to the already damaged authority of the prime minister."
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer responds to almost 100 Tory MPs voting against the PM on COVID passports, adding that the vote was passed because of Labour.
The important news today is that I have discovered the existence of a movie called 'Gatwick Gangsters' starring Willie Thorne, Bobby George and Gary Bushell. My life will never be the same again
Also further evidence that Javid is terrible at politics.
Years of posturing for Brexit, then backed remain to protect his career - oops.
Comes in as health secretary with a mandate to be skeptical of ridiculous modelled forecasts - within months he's the poster boy for being clueless on figures, fronting up measures he can't take his party with him on.
And why has Gove been allowed back into a central role on covid decision making, as was clear this weekend?
I thought that one of the triumphs of the reshuffle was that Javid was in, Hancock out, Gove moved, Barclay in, resulting in a team that would not blow with every modelling shroud waving exercise? They were going to stand their ground.
Javid chance to succeed Boris ended tonight
No Minister of Health has made it to the top job since the NHS started.
I think I'm right in saying only one ever has even before then?
There's one pre-NHS
That's the one I had in mind!
Equally of course, only one Chief Whip, only one Secretary of State for Education, only four Home Secretaries since 1867.
If you want to be PM, don't have a domestic portfolio that maybe worthy but is usually a bed of nails.
Clarke, of course, had Education, Health, and the Home Office. And still damn nearly made it.
Now neck and neck in the betting shops, Tories surging Lib Dems falling, probably due to which bet carries the most return. In truth neither is great. On the other hand, down on the ground Lib Dems apparently seen a dramatic increase in requests for Garden Stake boards, in several areas dominating the scene, usually a good sign of a party on the move. Might be misleading though, we will see.
For what it's worth, I've talked to a LibDem source who I trust, who confirms that their internal canvassing is showing a similar pattern to Chesham. He thinks it's a genuine toss-up.
That said, I believe the LD leak in Chesham was on the basis of postal votes. Canvass returns are more prone to over-optimism.
Comments
@SteveBakerHW
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21m
96 Con plus 2 tellers
sorry if a stupid question.
Edit: Ed davey perhaps given he has Rona? Wouldn’t you get someone less controversial to lake with him though?
Telegraph
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1470836801363398663
On the other hand, down on the ground Lib Dems apparently seen a dramatic increase in requests for Garden Stake boards, in several areas dominating the scene, usually a good sign of a party on the move.
Might be misleading though, we will see.
It follows the Tories admitting last week that he attended a "rule-breaking" Christmas party held at CCHQ last December
https://www.mylondon.news/news/zone-1-news/london-covid-top-london-tory-22462463
The contagion will surely be large.
It’s like a giant game of Tetris. The communist party continually trying to juggle each block of bad debt into the right shaped hole. But one day and I doubt it’ll be too long, the gameboy screen will be filled to the top with the blocks and it will be Game Over.
"PM needs to take a long, hard look at himself and ask himself whether he has the authority to take this country through the pandemic".
https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1470847384502644745
I suspect Sunak has just been super- clever.
If the passport scheme works for Johnson, no harm done. If it doesn't, Sunak was a hero.
Although I'm guessing he was paired with somebody else.
https://twitter.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1469993171979546626
Equally of course, only one Chief Whip, only one Secretary of State for Education, only four Home Secretaries since 1867.
If you want to be PM, don't have a domestic portfolio that maybe worthy but is usually a bed of nails.
And Blair never recovered from that.
Starmer's playing a blinder, as one can tell from the existential angst on display from some of the right on here.
Boris is too weak to force through rules against the wishes of a large part of his party and has pushed through something that has cross party support risking 1922 letters yes?
So a strong PM would say, “shit I’d better not do what I think/I’ve been advised by experts is right because I’m facing a rebellion that could topple me” and not “I’m weak so I need to make a stand against a large portion of my party despite that opposition”?
On that basis if Starmer goes against a large part of the Labour Party to weed out the cranks and anti-semites which would he supported by Tories then he is weak but if he cowers and bows to their opposition to him he’s strong?
A bit confused…… I would have thought Boris had actually just (whether you agree or not with the rules) just “discharged the basic functions of government”.
For those who need a history lesson, Jessel ended up getting himself stuck in a locked toilet during one of the Maastricht votes.
https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1470848915771699208
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1470847611959660557
BLOODY HELL. I underestimated the scale of the rebellion.
= Plan no Crimbo.
Contrary to what you were told last night lemons don't come easily off the tree when they are ripe. That's apples. Citrus you are always best to cut off with secateurs. Lemons are ripe when they are big enough to be worth picking. Additional fun fact: citrus turn from green to yellow/orange with a drop in temperature, not as a sign of ripeness. So in the tropics they stay green, and in temperate climates they are capable of turning back to green again come spring.
Sigh.
(this is an equal opportunity post designed to upset pretty much every segment equally)
* Theresa May was one of 17 Tory MPs who *abstained* on the Covid certificates vote tonight
* 13 former cabinet ministers rebelled
* 26 Tory MPs from the 2019 intake rebelled
* One Tory MP who was elected less than a fortnight ago (Louie French) also rebelled
* https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1470850800620560386
The rebellion means that Johnsons position in his party is ruined. Why did he get himself in this position, for something that won't make any difference? It seems like he has lost his political judgement completely. It is not like he was relying on the opposition votes to do something really difficult and important. Maybe he can bury it and bluster his way back; but it supports the speculation that he doesn't have either wise or smart advisors around him.
https://m.imdb.com/title/tt2794684/
• Senior official told No10 staff leaving Downing Street Xmas Quiz: “Go out the back”
• Email shows organisers planned for days for staff to attend the quiz in person
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-message-shows-no10-staff-25698987
And also… the quiz team names. 👀
https://www.indy100.com/viral/omicron-anagram-no-crimbo-conspiracy-b1966745
He apparently thinks that Boris is doing such a great job he'll nod through his laws without any demands, any amendments and without any criticism.
Keir should take a long, hard look at himself and ask himself whether he has the authority to be an Opposition Leader during a pandemic.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1470844916402167818?s=20
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer responds to almost 100 Tory MPs voting against the PM on COVID passports, adding that the vote was passed because of Labour.
https://trib.al/v4T7QlG https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1470852230618259471/video/1
Sorry, I'll be more serious in future.
And still damn nearly made it.
That said, I believe the LD leak in Chesham was on the basis of postal votes. Canvass returns are more prone to over-optimism.