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Tories back as betting favourite in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageTories back as betting favourite in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

Quite why there has been a sharp move in the betting I do not know but as can be seen something has driven the market this afternoon.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021
    FPT
    ping said:

    ping said:

    I wonder if there’s an NS poll?

    The betting movement seems rather odd. Hmm. OTOH, generally, if someone is sitting on a poll, the odds tend to suddenly shift. This has been more gradual.

    Intriguing.

    What has happened in the betting
    Since this morning, con’s chances have improved from ~36% to ~50%. LDs fallen from ~63% to ~49%. In betting terms, that’s a big move.
    My legendary modesty klaxon prevents me from mentioning this comment from last Thursday.

    Based on comments I made on PB earlier.

    My prediction for North Shropshire.

    Con hold but Lab + LD votes > Con votes.


    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1468983058607099904
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    First, like Labour in NS
  • I'm pretty sure the same market phenomenon happened at Chesham & Amersham and that turned out well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    A case of Labour winning for Boris here and splitting the anti Tory vote?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    FPT

    On topic BTW - when this thread was made the value bet was clearly on the Tories to win. I still favour the LD's but this has been a very easy by-election to bet on. I'm on LDs at about 4-1 and Tories at about 2-1 in what's effectively a two horse race.

    I've favoured the Tories all the way through. I still expect them to win for all the reasons I have given in the past.

    But - an upset is a lot more plausible than it was.

    And I maintain, despite divers Tories saying otherwise, that if he loses this Johnson is toast. The only time the Tories have ever - and I mean ever - lost this seat was in a low turnout by election at the nadir/apogee* of Asquith's Town Hall Campaign against the Tariff Reform movement. They've won it even in the general elections of 1832, 1880, 1906, 1945 and 1997. It's also one of their safest current seats.

    He wouldn't survive the LibDems taking this from third. If it's even close I expect to see panic.

    *delete according to party allegiance.
  • Totally off topic and absolutely unrelated to this thread but when/have the postal verifications happened?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    So Boris' political play worked then, so far.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    Bugger.

    Causing Serious Injury by Dangerous Driving, which has a max sentence of 5 years, is not in the ULS scheme. Only Causing Death by Dangerous Driving.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Farooq said:

    First, like Labour in NS

    *Checks watch*

    If you've only just started I'd like to know what it is you're drinking, please.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083
    Just had news of a couple of christmas parties cancelled. After the last two years was really looking forward to it but not to be.

    Still bigger picture and all that.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    Evening all :)

    Returning from the depleted team Christmas lunch and talking to the shift manager at the venue, they had suffered a lot of cancellations and reductions yet there was a table of 10 next to us (all co-workers) and a couple of family tables. Encouraging, but you'd expect the place to be rammed on the 14th December and it wasn't.

    Coming back tonight, Bank Station was very quiet at 5.15pm and no problem with seats on tubes.

    Perusing the Evening Standard, my eye was drawn to the Anne McElvoy column:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/covid-unvaccinated-omicron-vaccine-passports-b971877.html

    She claims four to five million unvaccinated adults nationally - elsewhere, the quote is two million unvaccinated in London alone. These figures are quoted without source or evidence.

    I'm left pondering what seems to this observer an absurdity.

    We are seeing four and five hours queues of people waiting to get the booster vaccination. These are younger people who, I presume, with the double vaccine, would have a statistically small chance of hospitalisation or death with Omicron. Getting everyone of these vaccinated for a third time makes the Government look good and would reduce the spread of the virus.

    However, isn't the real challenge the wholly unvaccinated? These are by definition much more likely to contract the virus, require hospital treatment and die so where is the effort to reach these individuals? It's hard work requiring a number of agencies both Government and non-Government. It might require knocking on doors which is labour-intensive and intrusive but isn't getting one unvaccinated person to have one dose more important than getting ten doubly vaccinated people to get a booster.

    The fear of God has been put into people by claims the double vaccine affords no protection against Omicron but is this correct? We are bombarded on here by plenty of "good news" tweets claiming Omicron is mild and there's nothing to worry about but that doesn't seem to be the UK Government's line.

    In any case, the problem isn't the young double vaccinated but the older unvaccinated - where is the co-ordinated effort to get into those communities where vaccination take up remains poor, where is the support for local councils and voluntary groups to dive deep into these communities and start finding out what's happening? What about those who don't officially exist and are fearful of any authority?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Just had news of a couple of christmas parties cancelled. After the last two years was really looking forward to it but not to be.

    Still bigger picture and all that.

    Mine on Thursday and Friday are still going ahead.

    As they're work related I have to drive afterwards though.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    First, like Labour in NS

    *Checks watch*

    If you've only just started I'd like to know what it is you're drinking, please.
    "Just miso soup"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    First, like Labour in NS

    *Checks watch*

    If you've only just started I'd like to know what it is you're drinking, please.
    "Just miso soup"
    Really?

    Put me down for a job lot, please...
  • Denmark, which has the second-highest number of confirmed Omicron cases, reports 8,314 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    "interesting" emphasis on the O of the logo.

    New TV ad appearing on airwaves from tonight - Chris Whitty says: "Every adult in the country needs to get a Covid-19 booster vaccine."

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470819316249542661?s=20
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    The LDs have to get deep into the Labour vote to squeeze out a win.

    I wonder if this might be akin to Hodge Hill in 2004 when the LDs cut a fifty six point deficit to Labour to just two on a 27% swing but failed to take the seat as the Conservative vote dropped only slightly.

    Success at Chesham & Amersham and other previous by election wins have been predicated on a ruthless squeezing of the Labour vote to below deposit levels. That has to happen to overcome the huge Conservative advantage even if some of that Conservative vote abstains or votes Reform.

    Paddy Power have cut the Conservatives from 7/4 on Sunday to Evens while the LDs have eased from 4/9 to 4/6.

    Anyone offering odds on a recount? Could be a very long night.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug
  • Netherlands extends "evening lockdown" until January 14, new measures to be considered next week to prevent Omicron wave
  • Omicron the mighty is definitely doing the rounds in London...

    London update
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1470786785257181186?s=20
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    Excellent. I do remember that from when it was broadcast.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    The point worth making here is that steel helmets were not issued to protect against rifle bullets, against which they were very little use, but from spent rounds, shrapnel and being clubbed on the head with a rifle or a trenching tool.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Totally off topic and absolutely unrelated to this thread but when/have the postal verifications happened?

    As you say, so non-germane to the thread that one's cursor hovers over the Off Topic button, but a good question.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    First, like Labour in NS

    *Checks watch*

    If you've only just started I'd like to know what it is you're drinking, please.
    "Just miso soup"
    Really?

    Put me down for a job lot, please...
    Of course, my actual prediction is Conservative for this one. Basically what you said below in your post seems spot on to me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Netherlands extends "evening lockdown" until January 14, new measures to be considered next week to prevent Omicron wave

    I SPECIFICALLY TOLD ROBERT SMITHSON JR THIS WOULD HAPPEN, even as he protested otherwise

    Once lockdowns are imposed, they are extended

    This is why we must resist full lockdown in the UK, or at least in liberty loving England, even if that resistance if probably futile. Once they start they are nearly-eternal
  • "interesting" emphasis on the O of the logo.

    New TV ad appearing on airwaves from tonight - Chris Whitty says: "Every adult in the country needs to get a Covid-19 booster vaccine."

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470819316249542661?s=20

    I have a friend who pronounces Omicron to rhyme with Oh My God.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Netherlands extends "evening lockdown" until January 14, new measures to be considered next week to prevent Omicron wave

    6 weeks into the 2 week lockdown!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869
    Re header: I think you're pretty influential as to percieved LD chances @MikeSmithson. So I presume that the price was just a bit too short to stomach for most, and you didn't add any cheer.

    I'd have backed Labour a little more at the 100+ prices if you'd not been quite positive on LD chances. No time to touch it now though - far too many people with local knowledge in a better place to bet. I make GBP1200 if Labour win, and otherwise it's peanuts - all green mind.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    First, like Labour in NS

    *Checks watch*

    If you've only just started I'd like to know what it is you're drinking, please.
    "Just miso soup"
    Really?

    Put me down for a job lot, please...
    Of course, my actual prediction is Conservative for this one. Basically what you said below in your post seems spot on to me.
    You know, that's rather a shame? After the last couple of years I was looking forward to a trip on this stuff...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349

    Omicron the mighty is definitely doing the rounds in London...

    London update
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1470786785257181186?s=20

    London the plague pit once more !
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    The point worth making here is that steel helmets were not issued to protect against rifle bullets, against which they were very little use, but from spent rounds, shrapnel and being clubbed on the head with a rifle or a trenching tool.
    There was a dizzying array of weaponry in use in WW1, including rifles, sidearms, machine guns, shotguns, mortars, grenades, flamethrowers, gas, bombs, and more. Naturally, a helmet wouldn't protect against all of these.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:

    Netherlands extends "evening lockdown" until January 14, new measures to be considered next week to prevent Omicron wave

    I SPECIFICALLY TOLD ROBERT SMITHSON JR THIS WOULD HAPPEN, even as he protested otherwise

    Once lockdowns are imposed, they are extended

    This is why we must resist full lockdown in the UK, or at least in liberty loving England, even if that resistance if probably futile. Once they start they are nearly-eternal
    Yup, this is why I don't like the plan B measures, you can already see them agitating for plan C. Omicron will come or it won't. We must not give in to these doom mongers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    Excellent. I do remember that from when it was broadcast.
    He credits that line with launching his entire comic career. Debuted at the comedy club in Soho, I believe

    It is a near-perfect joke, right down to the absurdity of the word “doodlebug” juxtaposed with horror and death
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    First division in the Commons
  • Try not to have an aneurysm when reading this.

    Money Makeover: ‘How do I pass on my £2m estate without paying inheritance tax?’

    Our 90-year-old reader wants to leave his property empire, that pays out more than £100,000, to his children


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/money-makeover/money-makeover-do-pass-2m-estate-without-paying-inheritance/
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083
    Does anyone have an idea for total hospital admissions in London. There are bound to be more covid positive people being admitted but how many are being admitted BECAUSE of covid.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    First, like Labour in NS

    *Checks watch*

    If you've only just started I'd like to know what it is you're drinking, please.
    "Just miso soup"
    Really?

    Put me down for a job lot, please...
    Of course, my actual prediction is Conservative for this one. Basically what you said below in your post seems spot on to me.
    You know, that's rather a shame? After the last couple of years I was looking forward to a trip on this stuff...
    Miso is acceptable enough fare. My quote of it was simply a tribute to Leon who denied drunkenness one day with that answer. It won't make you trip, but it's a nice winter warmer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    And everybody breath....


  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869

    "interesting" emphasis on the O of the logo.

    New TV ad appearing on airwaves from tonight - Chris Whitty says: "Every adult in the country needs to get a Covid-19 booster vaccine."

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470819316249542661?s=20

    I have a friend who pronounces Omicron to rhyme with Oh My God.
    That's broadly the way I do to - 'Oh mick ron'. However it's not a word I've used a lot in the past - the greek alphabet is familiar as I have mathematical leanings, but nobody ever used omicron for much as it was too easily confused.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,800
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1470822969010184192

    Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    The point worth making here is that steel helmets were not issued to protect against rifle bullets, against which they were very little use, but from spent rounds, shrapnel and being clubbed on the head with a rifle or a trenching tool.
    There was a dizzying array of weaponry in use in WW1, including rifles, sidearms, machine guns, shotguns, mortars, grenades, flamethrowers, gas, bombs, and more. Naturally, a helmet wouldn't protect against all of these.
    No, but the head tended to stick up above the trench. Even in the trench it would be vulnerable to artillery shell fragments from above. So the helmet was useful; at least in the UK that was the primary function. That was why ARP in the UK 1938-45 wore helmets - partly as a defence against own shells' fragments and shell fuzes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    The point worth making here is that steel helmets were not issued to protect against rifle bullets, against which they were very little use, but from spent rounds, shrapnel and being clubbed on the head with a rifle or a trenching tool.
    There was a dizzying array of weaponry in use in WW1, including rifles, sidearms, machine guns, shotguns, mortars, grenades, flamethrowers, gas, bombs, and more. Naturally, a helmet wouldn't protect against all of these.
    One of the things people forget about WW1, building on that point, is just how rapid technological development was within it. In aircraft, for example, in 1914 the best planes had a top speed of around 70mph and the pilots shot at each other with revolvers. They could stay up for maybe an hour. By the end of the war fighters could reach 140mph, machine guns fired through the propellers using oil pressure interrupter mechanisms and bombers could fly to the western parts of Germany and back without refuelling.

    And on the ground it was even faster.
  • If Omicron is as bad as people fear we're going to have a plethora of by elections.

    The Lib Dem leader, Labour shadow chancellor, Labour shadow transport sec, Labour shadow education sec have all tested positive for Covid.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1470824536820129793
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    The point worth making here is that steel helmets were not issued to protect against rifle bullets, against which they were very little use, but from spent rounds, shrapnel and being clubbed on the head with a rifle or a trenching tool.
    There was a dizzying array of weaponry in use in WW1, including rifles, sidearms, machine guns, shotguns, mortars, grenades, flamethrowers, gas, bombs, and more. Naturally, a helmet wouldn't protect against all of these.
    One of the things people forget about WW1, building on that point, is just how rapid technological development was within it. In aircraft, for example, in 1914 the best planes had a top speed of around 70mph and the pilots shot at each other with revolvers. They could stay up for maybe an hour. By the end of the war fighters could reach 140mph, machine guns fired through the propellers using oil pressure interrupter mechanisms and bombers could fly to the western parts of Germany and back without refuelling.

    And on the ground it was even faster.
    More than 140 mph?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Try not to have an aneurysm when reading this.

    Money Makeover: ‘How do I pass on my £2m estate without paying inheritance tax?’

    Our 90-year-old reader wants to leave his property empire, that pays out more than £100,000, to his children


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/money-makeover/money-makeover-do-pass-2m-estate-without-paying-inheritance/

    ££. Can't read. How does he do it without giving it away and living 7 years???
  • This is an important point that needs to get out there.

    It takes time for the *booster* to work.

    People will not have invincibility straight after receiving their booster, and should still be cautious.

    https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1470795837525663749?s=20
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    Stopped clock alert

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1470822969010184192

    Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity.
  • Carnyx said:

    Try not to have an aneurysm when reading this.

    Money Makeover: ‘How do I pass on my £2m estate without paying inheritance tax?’

    Our 90-year-old reader wants to leave his property empire, that pays out more than £100,000, to his children


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/money-makeover/money-makeover-do-pass-2m-estate-without-paying-inheritance/

    ££. Can't read. How does he do it without giving it away and living 7 years???
    Here's one suggestion.

    Shaun Moore, financial planner at Quilter, a wealth manager

    The Webbs’ ages make conventional inheritance tax planning difficult. Seven years will need to pass for standard gifts to escape it, which might mean that gifting strategies fall short.

    It’s best to start with maximising Mr and Mrs Webb’s “nil-rate bands” – the threshold below which no inheritance tax is paid. It is £325,000 for the 2021-22 tax year and will be frozen at that level until at least 2026. You are also able to transfer the unused nil-rate band from a deceased spouse. As both have lost a spouse previously this could provide a total exemption of £1.3m.

    To be eligible, they need to avoid leaving the entire estate to the survivor on the first death. Although this would benefit from 100pc exemption, it would limit the claim on second death.

    Instead, on the first death the couple could create a “discretionary will trust” of which the surviving spouse and children are beneficiaries. They would receive up to the nil-rate band plus the extra inherited nil-rate band – a total of £650,000. They could also write into their will that they want an amount equal to the nil-rate bands directly transferred to the children. This would potentially mean £650,000 could be distributed, with the rest going to the surviving spouse.

    In addition to the standard nil-rate band, a similar situation applies to the “residence nil-rate band”, but this can only be claimed when a qualifying property is part of the estate and is directly inherited. The availability of the residence nil-rate band is likely to depend on how the main residence is structured within the Eversden trust. Even if the 60pc within the trust does not qualify, the remaining 40pc may.

    There is also the potential that the residence nil-rate band will be lost through tapering as it is lost at a rate of £1 for every £2 above £2m. Gifts to their children could still be useful for this taper purpose. Gifts to reduce the amount left in the estate will be beneficial, even if Mr Webb or his wife die within seven years of making them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    South Africa COVID update: Cases continue to rise, positivity rate approaching 35%

    - New cases: 23,884
    - Average: 22,022 (+1,534)
    - Positivity rate: 34.9% (+3.9)
    - In hospital: 6,895 (+697)
    - In ICU: 469 (+49)
    - New deaths: 24
    - Average: 24 (-1)

    That positivity rate.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    The point worth making here is that steel helmets were not issued to protect against rifle bullets, against which they were very little use, but from spent rounds, shrapnel and being clubbed on the head with a rifle or a trenching tool.
    There was a dizzying array of weaponry in use in WW1, including rifles, sidearms, machine guns, shotguns, mortars, grenades, flamethrowers, gas, bombs, and more. Naturally, a helmet wouldn't protect against all of these.
    One of the things people forget about WW1, building on that point, is just how rapid technological development was within it. In aircraft, for example, in 1914 the best planes had a top speed of around 70mph and the pilots shot at each other with revolvers. They could stay up for maybe an hour. By the end of the war fighters could reach 140mph, machine guns fired through the propellers using oil pressure interrupter mechanisms and bombers could fly to the western parts of Germany and back without refuelling.

    And on the ground it was even faster.
    More than 140 mph?
    The official fastest performance was about 125mph, but that's for level flight. The Fokker DVII with its metal frame could dive faster than that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    The point worth making here is that steel helmets were not issued to protect against rifle bullets, against which they were very little use, but from spent rounds, shrapnel and being clubbed on the head with a rifle or a trenching tool.
    There was a dizzying array of weaponry in use in WW1, including rifles, sidearms, machine guns, shotguns, mortars, grenades, flamethrowers, gas, bombs, and more. Naturally, a helmet wouldn't protect against all of these.
    One of the things people forget about WW1, building on that point, is just how rapid technological development was within it. In aircraft, for example, in 1914 the best planes had a top speed of around 70mph and the pilots shot at each other with revolvers. They could stay up for maybe an hour. By the end of the war fighters could reach 140mph, machine guns fired through the propellers using oil pressure interrupter mechanisms and bombers could fly to the western parts of Germany and back without refuelling.

    And on the ground it was even faster.
    More than 140 mph?
    The official fastest performance was about 125mph, but that's for level flight. The Fokker DVII with its metal frame could dive faster than that.
    But on the ground….
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    maaarsh said:

    Stopped clock alert

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1470822969010184192

    Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity.

    Where does he stand on face masks?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Carnyx said:

    Try not to have an aneurysm when reading this.

    Money Makeover: ‘How do I pass on my £2m estate without paying inheritance tax?’

    Our 90-year-old reader wants to leave his property empire, that pays out more than £100,000, to his children


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/money-makeover/money-makeover-do-pass-2m-estate-without-paying-inheritance/

    ££. Can't read. How does he do it without giving it away and living 7 years???
    Here's one suggestion.

    Shaun Moore, financial planner at Quilter, a wealth manager

    The Webbs’ ages make conventional inheritance tax planning difficult. Seven years will need to pass for standard gifts to escape it, which might mean that gifting strategies fall short.

    It’s best to start with maximising Mr and Mrs Webb’s “nil-rate bands” – the threshold below which no inheritance tax is paid. It is £325,000 for the 2021-22 tax year and will be frozen at that level until at least 2026. You are also able to transfer the unused nil-rate band from a deceased spouse. As both have lost a spouse previously this could provide a total exemption of £1.3m.

    To be eligible, they need to avoid leaving the entire estate to the survivor on the first death. Although this would benefit from 100pc exemption, it would limit the claim on second death.

    Instead, on the first death the couple could create a “discretionary will trust” of which the surviving spouse and children are beneficiaries. They would receive up to the nil-rate band plus the extra inherited nil-rate band – a total of £650,000. They could also write into their will that they want an amount equal to the nil-rate bands directly transferred to the children. This would potentially mean £650,000 could be distributed, with the rest going to the surviving spouse.

    In addition to the standard nil-rate band, a similar situation applies to the “residence nil-rate band”, but this can only be claimed when a qualifying property is part of the estate and is directly inherited. The availability of the residence nil-rate band is likely to depend on how the main residence is structured within the Eversden trust. Even if the 60pc within the trust does not qualify, the remaining 40pc may.

    There is also the potential that the residence nil-rate band will be lost through tapering as it is lost at a rate of £1 for every £2 above £2m. Gifts to their children could still be useful for this taper purpose. Gifts to reduce the amount left in the estate will be beneficial, even if Mr Webb or his wife die within seven years of making them.
    Mm, thanks, hadn't realised he was married.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    South Africa COVID update: Cases continue to rise, positivity rate approaching 35%

    - New cases: 23,884
    - Average: 22,022 (+1,534)
    - Positivity rate: 34.9% (+3.9)
    - In hospital: 6,895 (+697)
    - In ICU: 469 (+49)
    - New deaths: 24
    - Average: 24 (-1)

    That positivity rate.....

    Gauteng cases flat week on week. Hopefully it starts to fall and provides a guide to what will happen in the other regions (and countries).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    On topic. It is simple.
    This week vaccines, virus.
    Last week incompetence, corruption, division, rule-breaking.
    It isn't hard to see what will be uppermost in folks minds when they come to vote.
    Lucky, lucky Boris yet again.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,800
    ydoethur said:

    maaarsh said:

    Stopped clock alert

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1470822969010184192

    Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity.

    Where does he stand on face masks?
    I don't think they work if you stand on them.
  • Pepper from the Mirror definitely has photos of BoJo breaking the rules
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    The point worth making here is that steel helmets were not issued to protect against rifle bullets, against which they were very little use, but from spent rounds, shrapnel and being clubbed on the head with a rifle or a trenching tool.
    There was a dizzying array of weaponry in use in WW1, including rifles, sidearms, machine guns, shotguns, mortars, grenades, flamethrowers, gas, bombs, and more. Naturally, a helmet wouldn't protect against all of these.
    One of the things people forget about WW1, building on that point, is just how rapid technological development was within it. In aircraft, for example, in 1914 the best planes had a top speed of around 70mph and the pilots shot at each other with revolvers. They could stay up for maybe an hour. By the end of the war fighters could reach 140mph, machine guns fired through the propellers using oil pressure interrupter mechanisms and bombers could fly to the western parts of Germany and back without refuelling.

    And on the ground it was even faster.
    More than 140 mph?
    The official fastest performance was about 125mph, but that's for level flight. The Fokker DVII with its metal frame could dive faster than that.
    But on the ground….
    Ah, I see what you mean. Tanks for pointing out my poor grammar. :smile:

    Although the technology developed did lead in just six years to this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunbeam_350HP
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    The point worth making here is that steel helmets were not issued to protect against rifle bullets, against which they were very little use, but from spent rounds, shrapnel and being clubbed on the head with a rifle or a trenching tool.
    There was a dizzying array of weaponry in use in WW1, including rifles, sidearms, machine guns, shotguns, mortars, grenades, flamethrowers, gas, bombs, and more. Naturally, a helmet wouldn't protect against all of these.
    One of the things people forget about WW1, building on that point, is just how rapid technological development was within it. In aircraft, for example, in 1914 the best planes had a top speed of around 70mph and the pilots shot at each other with revolvers. They could stay up for maybe an hour. By the end of the war fighters could reach 140mph, machine guns fired through the propellers using oil pressure interrupter mechanisms and bombers could fly to the western parts of Germany and back without refuelling.

    And on the ground it was even faster.
    More than 140 mph?
    The official fastest performance was about 125mph, but that's for level flight. The Fokker DVII with its metal frame could dive faster than that.
    But on the ground….
    Very droll. I think a Mercedes car had done 100mph by 1909.
  • Uh oh.

    EXCL: Were police aware of the Downing Street Christmas Party?

    ITV News understands that an alarm was triggered accidentally that night inside No 10, leading security/police to respond.

    So far the Met have declined to investigate.

    Tonight Downing Street and the Metropolitan Police say they do not comment on security matters.

    But sources inside No 10 have confirmed the story, questioning whether a police officer may have been within earshot of the alleged party.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    maaarsh said:

    Stopped clock alert

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1470822969010184192

    Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity.

    Not sure that plays with the oft quoted "Corbyn would have locked us up for ever" theory.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1470822969010184192

    Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity.

    Corbyn isn't really trying to endear himself with Starmer so that he can regain the Whip, is he? Principled, but a twit.
  • Uh oh.

    EXCL: Were police aware of the Downing Street Christmas Party?

    ITV News understands that an alarm was triggered accidentally that night inside No 10, leading security/police to respond.

    So far the Met have declined to investigate.

    Tonight Downing Street and the Metropolitan Police say they do not comment on security matters.

    But sources inside No 10 have confirmed the story, questioning whether a police officer may have been within earshot of the alleged party.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party

    The Mirror are going to show Johnson there, I am sure of it
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    dixiedean said:

    maaarsh said:

    Stopped clock alert

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1470822969010184192

    Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity.

    Not sure that plays with the oft quoted "Corbyn would have locked us up for ever" theory.
    There would have been nothing to lockdown.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    ydoethur said:

    maaarsh said:

    Stopped clock alert

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1470822969010184192

    Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity.

    Where does he stand on face masks?
    I don't think they work if you stand on them.
    I'm doing well with pedants tonight.

    I should point out the way most people wear them they might be more effective if people stood on them. It would anchor them to one spot.
  • Uh oh.

    EXCL: Were police aware of the Downing Street Christmas Party?

    ITV News understands that an alarm was triggered accidentally that night inside No 10, leading security/police to respond.

    So far the Met have declined to investigate.

    Tonight Downing Street and the Metropolitan Police say they do not comment on security matters.

    But sources inside No 10 have confirmed the story, questioning whether a police officer may have been within earshot of the alleged party.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party

    Interesting that it is always ITV and the Mirror.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    41?
  • I've been thinking that the "Nats" is such an ugly name for such a cheery bunch as the SNP and their supporters. The association with gnats is just too obvious and patently an insult to our filibeg clad brethren.

    I've been thinking of a simple change to make the name more endearing and a bit friendlier sounding.

    How about the Natsies?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Division on the face covering regulations:

    For - 441
    Against - 41
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,126
    Maj 400 on first vote.

    41 noes.
    441 yes.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    IanB2 said:

    Division on the face covering regulations:

    For - 441
    Against - 41

    Isolations next, then the 'big' one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Uh oh.

    EXCL: Were police aware of the Downing Street Christmas Party?

    ITV News understands that an alarm was triggered accidentally that night inside No 10, leading security/police to respond.

    So far the Met have declined to investigate.

    Tonight Downing Street and the Metropolitan Police say they do not comment on security matters.

    But sources inside No 10 have confirmed the story, questioning whether a police officer may have been within earshot of the alleged party.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party

    Interesting that it is always ITV and the Mirror.
    The Beeb are scared of Nad?

    Or maybe trying to blackmail the Tories?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    Uh oh.

    EXCL: Were police aware of the Downing Street Christmas Party?

    ITV News understands that an alarm was triggered accidentally that night inside No 10, leading security/police to respond.

    So far the Met have declined to investigate.

    Tonight Downing Street and the Metropolitan Police say they do not comment on security matters.

    But sources inside No 10 have confirmed the story, questioning whether a police officer may have been within earshot of the alleged party.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party

    The Mirror are going to show Johnson there, I am sure of it
    On Wednesday night. It’s all being saved up for Wednesday night so it’s new Thursday.

    *On topic. My libdem win is still safe as houses. I didn’t expect the libdems to take big lead so quickly actually. I expected this sort of market flip flop right up to the paper piles up on table. 🙂

    The reason I know the result is a Libdem win, we are patronising the voters for not being sentient beings calling it any other way. They know it’s a special election. They know it’s between just two parties. They know if Boris loses this, the nation gets a new PM. In that regards there isn’t a Conservative candidate standing, the Conservative voters there know a vote for him is a vote for Boris, a vote for libdems is a vote for a new Conservative leader as Prime Minister of this country. And For some of you to imply the voters there don’t know what’s what, that the Labour vote holds up because they don’t know what happens if they vote libdem instead, all this is actually very rude and patronising towards voters.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,162
    I'm sure you already did this, but I'm just catching up with events of the day.

    "The guidelines on social mixing will not be legally enforceable, but Ms Sturgeon warned: "Although it is guidance, please do not think of it as optional."

    Absolute headdesk stuff.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511

    If Omicron is as bad as people fear we're going to have a plethora of by elections.

    The Lib Dem leader, Labour shadow chancellor, Labour shadow transport sec, Labour shadow education sec have all tested positive for Covid.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1470824536820129793

    It would be interesting to know how many of those have had the booster jab. Ed Davey certainly has (though I don't know how long ago).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Second motion goes through unopposed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Uh oh.

    EXCL: Were police aware of the Downing Street Christmas Party?

    ITV News understands that an alarm was triggered accidentally that night inside No 10, leading security/police to respond.

    So far the Met have declined to investigate.

    Tonight Downing Street and the Metropolitan Police say they do not comment on security matters.

    But sources inside No 10 have confirmed the story, questioning whether a police officer may have been within earshot of the alleged party.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party

    Interesting that it is always ITV and the Mirror.
    Arhhh just realised something....Paul Brand's husband works in the cabinet office. Pippa Crerar husband also works in government.

    Its a tiny world isn't it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Division on the entry to venues regulations
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    dr_spyn said:

    Maj 400 on first vote.

    41 noes.
    441 yes.

    I see more than 41 noeses on display when wearing masks. More like 60%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    Leon said:

    Netherlands extends "evening lockdown" until January 14, new measures to be considered next week to prevent Omicron wave

    I SPECIFICALLY TOLD ROBERT SMITHSON JR THIS WOULD HAPPEN, even as he protested otherwise

    Once lockdowns are imposed, they are extended

    This is why we must resist full lockdown in the UK, or at least in liberty loving England, even if that resistance if probably futile. Once they start they are nearly-eternal
    I was wrong. (Although I console myself that had Omicron not happened, I might not have been wrong.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Netherlands extends "evening lockdown" until January 14, new measures to be considered next week to prevent Omicron wave

    I SPECIFICALLY TOLD ROBERT SMITHSON JR THIS WOULD HAPPEN, even as he protested otherwise

    Once lockdowns are imposed, they are extended

    This is why we must resist full lockdown in the UK, or at least in liberty loving England, even if that resistance if probably futile. Once they start they are nearly-eternal
    Yup, this is why I don't like the plan B measures, you can already see them agitating for plan C. Omicron will come or it won't. We must not give in to these doom mongers.
    A lot of "temporary measures" introduced in response to 9/11 are still in force today.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Netherlands extends "evening lockdown" until January 14, new measures to be considered next week to prevent Omicron wave

    I SPECIFICALLY TOLD ROBERT SMITHSON JR THIS WOULD HAPPEN, even as he protested otherwise

    Once lockdowns are imposed, they are extended

    This is why we must resist full lockdown in the UK, or at least in liberty loving England, even if that resistance if probably futile. Once they start they are nearly-eternal
    Yup, this is why I don't like the plan B measures, you can already see them agitating for plan C. Omicron will come or it won't. We must not give in to these doom mongers.
    A lot of "temporary measures" introduced in response to 9/11 are still in force today.
    Income tax is still going strong 222 years later.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,632

    Denmark, which has the second-highest number of confirmed Omicron cases, reports 8,314 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record

    Still no rise in Hospitalisations or Deaths though.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    If i was forced to describe the regional case figures in England using only sound effects i would select a rocket ship for London.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021
    A sign of how seriously Conservatives are taking omicron: pretty much every single MP on the government benches is wearing a mask - big change from PMQs last week. Only pair I can spot without is Christopher Chope and David Davis.

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1470828642515271682
  • Alistair said:

    If i was forced to describe the regional case figures in England using only sound effects i would select a rocket ship for London.

    Not somebody doing a big poop?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    Alistair said:

    If i was forced to describe the regional case figures in England using only sound effects i would select a rocket ship for London.

    Again, if we're allowed to obsess over regional subsamples, the furthest along and most instructive is Gautang, where the rocket ship has become a hot air balloon, hopefully soon to become a rock.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    A sign of how seriously Conservatives are taking omicron: pretty much every single MP on the government benches is wearing a mask - big change from PMQs last week. Only pair I can spot without is Christopher Chope and David Davis.

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1470828642515271682

    They'll all have it in a day or 2 anyway if they're packing in to the lobbys tonight, masks won't make a jot of difference.
  • It's also an anagram of 'old cremation'

  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656

    It's also an anagram of 'old cremation'

    Omicron -> No Crimbo.....
    Omicron + (plan) B, surely?
  • Over 1 MILLION booster jabs have been booked in England since the NHS opened up the booking service to all over 30s in England yesterday.

    That sounds great, until you realise there is another 14-19 million more to do....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Anyone know how the William Ulsterman party is going to vote?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for Farooq

    “In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”


    As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug

    The point worth making here is that steel helmets were not issued to protect against rifle bullets, against which they were very little use, but from spent rounds, shrapnel and being clubbed on the head with a rifle or a trenching tool.
    There was a dizzying array of weaponry in use in WW1, including rifles, sidearms, machine guns, shotguns, mortars, grenades, flamethrowers, gas, bombs, and more. Naturally, a helmet wouldn't protect against all of these.
    One of the things people forget about WW1, building on that point, is just how rapid technological development was within it. In aircraft, for example, in 1914 the best planes had a top speed of around 70mph and the pilots shot at each other with revolvers. They could stay up for maybe an hour. By the end of the war fighters could reach 140mph, machine guns fired through the propellers using oil pressure interrupter mechanisms and bombers could fly to the western parts of Germany and back without refuelling.

    And on the ground it was even faster.
    More than 140 mph?
    The official fastest performance was about 125mph, but that's for level flight. The Fokker DVII with its metal frame could dive faster than that.
    But on the ground….
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martinsyde_Buzzard

    variously reported as 142 and 146mph top speed.
  • HMG removes quarantine for all those presently confined from red list countries with immediate effect
  • How many of the freedom loving Tory rebel MPs are going to maintain that line when it comes to voting on NHS workers' freedom to go unvaccinated?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,126
    Covid certification.
    Yes 369
    NO 126

    Maj 243
  • 369 to 126
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