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Tories back as betting favourite in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris will be deposed if he tries to implement lockdown. Well done actual Tories. You've ended the tyranny of unelected experts.

    He's also fucked if he's seen to personally break any restriction from now on.
    Nobody in authority seems to have minded so far. Why would that change?
    Because his authority and popularity have drained away.
    I am convinced neither of those assertions are correct in the medium term. It may look that way now, but by the middle of January?
    For that to happen Boris needs a very good winter.

    Which means a minimal hit to the UK while European countries get hammered by Delta and Omicron.

    Its possible though that does lead to many Conservative MPs then thinking that new restrictions were unnecessary.
    Several of the PB Tory Brains Trust have assured me that Omicron is mild and a Delta killer. I hope they are right. Although even if they are correct my biggest fear is that the NHS still falls over under the strain. This is why Johnson is right today and Johnny Public is right behind him.
    There is some interesting data from South Africas biggest insurer in this twitter thread. Decent data rather than anecdata:

    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470684351151157252?t=lXJ6l4hEFLN-sLFuHgX_ew&s=19

    This slide shows that there is 29% reduction in risk of admission compared to the original version. Somewhat better, but not great. There is stuff on Pfizer double vax giving 70% protection, so respectable efficacy.



    Thanks for that. It contextualises some of the data that some PB posters have interpreted in a particular way.

    I am assuming today's vote was as much in panic at the prospect of the NHS being overwhelmed in the next month as much as anything else. Will it hold up?
    The age differential on the vaccine waning effects is previously known and observed. This is why all the booster programs that I am aware of, around the world, used oldest-first methodologies.

    image
  • RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470855418243162113

    BoJo next, honestly how stupid can you be?

    Do you have any proof of this, or just hoping?
    I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
    Can you give us an example?
    No he cannot
    If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
    If tonight's Bailey is one of them it is not a smoking gun

    The demise of Boris premiership will not be over partygate but his loss of confidence by 180 of his mps

    When and only then will time be called no matter how much we may want it to be different
    ... unless Boris is in one of the Mirror's party snaps!
    If they had it we’d have seen it by now. It doesn’t exist. The zoom photo was the best they had.
    You don't know that.

    Initially there was no evidence, then there was. There's more coming
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Understand Theresa May was one of the 16 Tory MPs who abstained on Covid passes that weren't slipped.

    She deliberately abstained, wasn't given permission to skip the vote like 19 others.

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1470865762382401537
  • PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    Oh get a grip.

    Having a Hands, Face, First Place team quiz name on Zoom broke no rules.

    But nice distraction looking at why people took part in a Zoom Quiz twelve months ago instead of why the Leader of the Opposition is so pathetically weak he couldn't extract any concessions today for his votes. Keep going, you might even convince yourself.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    I'm tending towards your view - though it would be good to understand how less likely a person is to transmit the virus vs an unvaccinated person. I did read a study of this about a month ago which said that the difference wasn't as much as you may think - but I'm damned if I can find it.

    The belief is out there that there is a vast difference and I strongly suspect this isn't true. I'd even go as far as saying that some of the lumpen would rather stand next to an infected person wearing a mask than a unvaccinated person. I think this is become a new 'class of person' issue and I find it most distasteful.
    Vaccines were sold as the way out and I always thought alone this was a silly thing to say
    The only way out of a virus which isn't going anywhere is herd immunity - which involves a combination of vaccination and natural immunity.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661
    Scott_xP said:

    It's a funny old world. Eden rides high in 1955, obliterated in 1956. Wilson landslide in 1966, reputation blown to bits in 1967. Callaghan looks a winner in 1978, destroyed by the winter of 1978-79. Thatcher at her peak in 1987-88, humiliated in 1990. Funny old world.
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1470854952625086464

    May 25% ahead in April 2017...
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    MaxPB said:

    63,405 new cases in France with hospitalisations averaging over 1000 per day.

    But they've got vaccine passports, masks and all the rest of it! You must be mistaken. These measures are assured to eliminate COVID, the French are just trying to make Boris look bad.
    Moron
    No need to be rude mate
    You can think of it as flashback humour. MaxPB was dishing it out to someone else earlier, so I thought he would welcome the same. He hasn't liked my post yet, but I feel he probably will.
    Sorry for overreacting then, just seen people being rude to Max before and he's always courteous so he doesn't deserve that
  • PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I have not seen anyone excusing the rule breaking but it would be wise to wait for the investigations conclusions first

    Bailey's resignation was correct as was Burley and Rigby's of Sky when they were caught out
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    Farooq said:

    MaxPB said:

    63,405 new cases in France with hospitalisations averaging over 1000 per day.

    But they've got vaccine passports, masks and all the rest of it! You must be mistaken. These measures are assured to eliminate COVID, the French are just trying to make Boris look bad.
    Moron
    No need to be rude mate
    Don't worry about it lol.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    It is worth remembering that mandatory vaccinations for medical workers have been around for years. To protect patients, colleagues and themselves.
    There may be a case for mandatory vaccinations for healthworkers, I'm just saying it makes no sense to justify it on the basis of "oh what if an unvaccinated person gives me covid?" when a vaccinated person can quite easily do the same thing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021

    PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I have not seen anyone excusing the rule breaking but it would be wise to wait for the investigations conclusions first

    Bailey's resignation was correct as was Burley and Rigby's of Sky when they were caught out
    Burley and Rigby didn't resign....just suspended for a few months.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    MaxPB said:

    63,405 new cases in France with hospitalisations averaging over 1000 per day.

    But they've got vaccine passports, masks and all the rest of it! You must be mistaken. These measures are assured to eliminate COVID, the French are just trying to make Boris look bad.
    Moron
    No need to be rude mate
    You can think of it as flashback humour. MaxPB was dishing it out to someone else earlier, so I thought he would welcome the same. He hasn't liked my post yet, but I feel he probably will.
    Sorry for overreacting then, just seen people being rude to Max before and he's always courteous so he doesn't deserve that
    Eh, I can be as discourteous as the best of them, don't worry about it.
  • MaxPB said:

    If Whitty and LSHTM's wild modelling predictions don't come to pass in New Year then surely Johnson is finally done?

    Almost half his backbench voted to stop this wild lurch to panic.

    I think he would be and so would they. If their advice turns out to be poor it may be seen as time to replace the advisors.

    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.
    I suspect their underlying model is always: it is better to predict to disaster and warn that urgent measures need to be taken rather than say I think it will be ok and then be wrong.

    Everyone of them thinks about the public inquiry all the time imho.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
  • City improving their goal tally - 7 - 0 at present v Leeds
  • MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    MaxPB said:

    63,405 new cases in France with hospitalisations averaging over 1000 per day.

    But they've got vaccine passports, masks and all the rest of it! You must be mistaken. These measures are assured to eliminate COVID, the French are just trying to make Boris look bad.
    Moron
    No need to be rude mate
    You can think of it as flashback humour. MaxPB was dishing it out to someone else earlier, so I thought he would welcome the same. He hasn't liked my post yet, but I feel he probably will.
    Sorry for overreacting then, just seen people being rude to Max before and he's always courteous so he doesn't deserve that
    Eh, I can be as discourteous as the best of them, don't worry about it.
    Not in my experience, you've always been kind
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sunak abstaining is the story I think. Blimey

    Not sure about that. He was paired with Rachel presumably? She is poorly with covid. It would have been ungentlemanly and dishonourable to do otherwise I think.
    Reeves would be following the Labour whip ! You can't pair with your own side
    She couldn’t vote presumably as she is absent? Therefore he also has to abstain to maintain honour I think.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2021

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    23 Teams? How many per team?

    And for those on Sunak as next PM, who do you think might be in "The Money Gang"?
    6 per team as I understood, but not all in the office.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    Oh get a grip.

    Having a Hands, Face, First Place team quiz name on Zoom broke no rules.

    But nice distraction looking at why people took part in a Zoom Quiz twelve months ago instead of why the Leader of the Opposition is so pathetically weak he couldn't extract any concessions today for his votes. Keep going, you might even convince yourself.
    You are embarrassing yourself tonight Phil.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661
    edited December 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    It is worth remembering that mandatory vaccinations for medical workers have been around for years. To protect patients, colleagues and themselves.
    Are flu vaccines mandatory for NHS staff?

    I'm not opposed to it being brought in gradually, I just think it might be counterproductive to do it quite so quickly.
    I am sure Mrs P used to have to have Hep B vaccine when she was working as a Registered Nurse, no opt out.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470855418243162113

    BoJo next, honestly how stupid can you be?

    Do you have any proof of this, or just hoping?
    I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
    Can you give us an example?
    No he cannot
    If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
    Shouldn't be difficult to find us some examples then.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    I'm tending towards your view - though it would be good to understand how less likely a person is to transmit the virus vs an unvaccinated person. I did read a study of this about a month ago which said that the difference wasn't as much as you may think - but I'm damned if I can find it.

    The belief is out there that there is a vast difference and I strongly suspect this isn't true. I'd even go as far as saying that some of the lumpen would rather stand next to an infected person wearing a mask than a unvaccinated person. I think this is become a new 'class of person' issue and I find it most distasteful.
    Vaccines were sold as the way out and I always thought alone this was a silly thing to say
    They are the way out though. They allow you to encounter Covid, fight it off and live your life. You may get a bit ill, maybe quite rough, but you survive. Over time, when you meet Covid again, you do even better against it because it’s not new,
    There isn’t an alternative. We can not eliminate Covid.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited December 2021
    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    It is worth remembering that mandatory vaccinations for medical workers have been around for years. To protect patients, colleagues and themselves.
    Are flu vaccines mandatory for NHS staff?

    I'm not opposed to it being brought in gradually, I just think it might be counterproductive to do it quite so quickly.
    I am sure Mrs P used to have to have Hep B vaccine when she was working as a Registered Nurse, no opt out.
    For sure it's the case with Hep B, but I was asking about flu vaccines.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470855418243162113

    BoJo next, honestly how stupid can you be?

    Do you have any proof of this, or just hoping?
    I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
    Can you give us an example?
    No he cannot
    If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
    If tonight's Bailey is one of them it is not a smoking gun

    The demise of Boris premiership will not be over partygate but his loss of confidence by 180 of his mps

    When and only then will time be called no matter how much we may want it to be different
    ... unless Boris is in one of the Mirror's party snaps!
    If they had it we’d have seen it by now. It doesn’t exist. The zoom photo was the best they had.
    You don't know that.

    Initially there was no evidence, then there was. There's more coming
    This games easy. You don’t know that, either.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    MaxPB said:

    If Whitty and LSHTM's wild modelling predictions don't come to pass in New Year then surely Johnson is finally done?

    Almost half his backbench voted to stop this wild lurch to panic.

    I think he would be and so would they. If their advice turns out to be poor it may be seen as time to replace the advisors.

    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.
    I suspect their underlying model is always: it is better to predict to disaster and warn that urgent measures need to be taken rather than say I think it will be ok and then be wrong.

    Everyone of them thinks about the public inquiry all the time imho.
    Yeah that's definitely a point, I do just wonder why no politician doesn't bring up the July model and ask them why we should believe them now when the 7k per day being hospitalised also didn't come true. If I was in the room it would be my first question for sure. But then politicians, Boris especially, aren't particularly numerate and probably get dazzled by big scary numbers like 1m infected per day without asking whether it's plausible that 1 in 5 people would have COVID at the same time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    I thought of you when I read that name. And Beaver Fever.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470855418243162113

    BoJo next, honestly how stupid can you be?

    Do you have any proof of this, or just hoping?
    I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
    Can you give us an example?
    No he cannot
    If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
    Shouldn't be difficult to find us some examples then.
    Well I'm not looking for the evidence for you. What did your last slave die of?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    I seem to remember some people saying the US would do deals with the EU before the UK...

    Trade minister tours US states, amid little to no progress on US-UK trade deal, & UK-US steel tariffs dispute unsettled even after US-EU deal, implores US to “awaken” a “paradigm shift” in US response to UK leaving orbit of EU “to be closer to you [US]”..

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    Sunak abstained? Surely a mistake?

    Again, Rachel Reeves is unwell. He’s her pair I think so voting would be ungentlemanly conduct.
    In normal times yes, but Starmer and Johnson were strolling through the aye lobby today hand in glove.
    Sunak abstaining with Reeves just reduces the Govt maj by 2
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
    Phwoar
    I think the majority of "influencers" have work done
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    The Mirror has splashed two Tory party stories this evening. That suggests to me that there is more to come, otherwise one would have been held back to tomorrow.

    Pippa Crerar is playing games with us all.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470855418243162113

    BoJo next, honestly how stupid can you be?

    Do you have any proof of this, or just hoping?
    I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
    Can you give us an example?
    No he cannot
    If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
    Shouldn't be difficult to find us some examples then.
    Well I'm not looking for the evidence for you. What did your last slave die of?
    You don't need to look for evidence when you have it at your fingertips from the get go. You plainly checked out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days so we don't have to, so what's the answer?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    It is worth remembering that mandatory vaccinations for medical workers have been around for years. To protect patients, colleagues and themselves.
    Are flu vaccines mandatory for NHS staff?

    I'm not opposed to it being brought in gradually, I just think it might be counterproductive to do it quite so quickly.
    I am sure Mrs P used to have to have Hep B vaccine when she was working as a Registered Nurse, no opt out.
    For sure it's the case with Hep B, but I was asking about flu vaccines.
    Not for flu but a NHS worker I know said that she and her fellow students had to have Hep B vaccination (and one other I think) before she started the course. I presume therefore that it is also contractual when they start work.

    Contracts for existing staff don't mention Covid of course, so they can't be sacked for not being vaccinated on contractual grounds.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    MaxPB said:


    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.

    The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.

    In the Evening Standard tonight, one sentence said there were 2 million unvaccinated adults in London while another quoted 4-5 million nationally. Neither was evidenced in any way but that's what people will read.

    IF, and again I lack the knowledge of many on here, Omicron is better at transmission than Delta the chances of an unvaccinated adult who has so far avoided the virus contracting the Omicron variant seem quite high.

    Now, are we assuming those who contracted the virus in the spring of 2020 or early this year and have never been vaccinated still have some degree of antibody protection? I don't know - it seems implausible to this observer.

    So, anyone who had the virus in April 2020 and has not been vaccinated since is presumably at risk but of course we have no knowledge of those numbers.
  • I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    "Ho, ho, ho! Now I have a machine gun!"
  • tlg86 said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    I thought of you when I read that name. And Beaver Fever.
    Beaver Fever is a bit too loud, I do subtle.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Off topic, my Cornish Gouda arrived today. I haven't tried it yet.

    The delivery also included some Cornish ale to wash it down. A change from Yorkshire brews.
  • Scott_xP said:

    I seem to remember some people saying the US would do deals with the EU before the UK...

    Trade minister tours US states, amid little to no progress on US-UK trade deal, & UK-US steel tariffs dispute unsettled even after US-EU deal, implores US to “awaken” a “paradigm shift” in US response to UK leaving orbit of EU “to be closer to you [US]”..

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-trade-revolution

    They're not that into us, are they?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    Well done the Tory rebels, at least we have a few MPs who don't believe in creating a world of 1984.

    What I don't understand is why Graham Brady's postman isn't about to get a hernia. If you voted against tonight, why wouldn't you write a letter? Boris is already badly wounded, he'd probably lose a vote triggered now - if 100 MPs are willing to defy a three line whip, how many more were voting with gritted teeth. Its not like the rest of the party like him much either, nor is he currently an electoral asset.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited December 2021
    FFS!

    I pick Bernado Silva and Man City are winning 7 nil and he only has one point in the fantasy football.

    FML.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Starmer 9 points ahead and leading on most capable PM, Johnson as unpopular as Corbyn.

    Starmer is crap! Useless opposition!

    How will you react to a mean reversion?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Mirror has splashed two Tory party stories this evening. That suggests to me that there is more to come, otherwise one would have been held back to tomorrow.

    Pippa Crerar is playing games with us all.

    Yada yada. Put up or shut up, Shit or get off the pot, Get yer tits out hush ma mouf, etc.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
    The Boomers definitely didn’t seem to grasp the concept of a bubble. My mother is the world’s most rule abiding person yet broke the rules daily by assuming her best friend was in a bubble with her (which under the rules was impossible).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470855418243162113

    BoJo next, honestly how stupid can you be?

    Do you have any proof of this, or just hoping?
    I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
    Can you give us an example?
    No he cannot
    If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
    Shouldn't be difficult to find us some examples then.
    Assuming you mean examples of Crerars' hints:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470821697033015312?s=20 "Watch this space"

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469788225673826308?s=20 "Incoming"
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    tlg86 said:

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    It is worth remembering that mandatory vaccinations for medical workers have been around for years. To protect patients, colleagues and themselves.
    Are flu vaccines mandatory for NHS staff?

    I'm not opposed to it being brought in gradually, I just think it might be counterproductive to do it quite so quickly.
    It's not mandatory for Flu.

    MMR is mandatory at our trust and obviously depending where you work Hep B may be needed along with TB immunity confirmed.

    It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the mandatory Covid vaccines. We have via the Trust bulletin set out deadlines so that staff know when they need to have their 1st dose by so that they meet the April deadline for 2nd dose.

    I have already seen a number of staff contacting us trying to get out of having it...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.

    The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.
    In the Evening Standard tonight, one sentence said there were 2 million unvaccinated adults in London while another quoted 4-5 million nationally. Neither was evidenced in any way but that's what people will read.

    IF, and again I lack the knowledge of many on here, Omicron is better at transmission than Delta the chances of an unvaccinated adult who has so far avoided the virus contracting the Omicron variant seem quite high.

    Now, are we assuming those who contracted the virus in the spring of 2020 or early this year and have never been vaccinated still have some degree of antibody protection? I don't know - it seems implausible to this observer.

    So, anyone who had the virus in April 2020 and has not been vaccinated since is presumably at risk but of course we have no knowledge of those numbers.
    Some degree of protection for SARS is present 20 years later. It’s not impossible for t-cells etc to be able to react quickly after 18 months. I suspect you are likely to catch omicron, but you definitely are not Covid naive.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661

    FFS!

    I pick Bernado Silva and Man City are winning 7 nil and he only has one point in the fantasy football.

    FML.

    Our thoughts are with you at this difficult time TSE.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited December 2021
    .

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470855418243162113

    BoJo next, honestly how stupid can you be?

    Do you have any proof of this, or just hoping?
    I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
    Can you give us an example?
    No he cannot
    If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
    Shouldn't be difficult to find us some examples then.
    Assuming you mean examples of Crerars' hints:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470821697033015312?s=20 "Watch this space"

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469788225673826308?s=20 "Incoming"
    Thanks, but I don't see why @RobD couldn't have trawled through them himself.

    You're spoiling him.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    I'm tending towards your view - though it would be good to understand how less likely a person is to transmit the virus vs an unvaccinated person. I did read a study of this about a month ago which said that the difference wasn't as much as you may think - but I'm damned if I can find it.

    The belief is out there that there is a vast difference and I strongly suspect this isn't true. I'd even go as far as saying that some of the lumpen would rather stand next to an infected person wearing a mask than a unvaccinated person. I think this is become a new 'class of person' issue and I find it most distasteful.
    I've asked this on here several times over the past few months. The vaccines seem to do something in reducing transmission, but the evidence is not definitive; and it is not absolute as the vaccinated can still get covid and pass it on. So the whole argument (vaccines make us safer) is not particularly strong. It has become clear to me that it is irrational and absurd to allow vaccinated people to avoid testing and quarantine requirements; as that means that many people will develop a false sense of security, have the virus and pass it on, often without realising as they are assymptomatic, and sometimes at large superspreader type events. Yet that is the policy a lot of people believe in. Ultimately, the vaccines are like a substitute for religion; when people are desperate they will believe in anything, and consequently it is futile trying to argue with people about them.

    I didn't listen to Johnson today, but it sounds like he is unable to think for himself and peddling the same myths about vaccination. The mandatory vaccination of medical workers law is evidence of the governments lack of foresight. If it is implement the NHS will lose a vast proportion of its staff, at a point in time when they are breaking under the pressure of Covid plus everything else. Not a good place to be in, and completely avoidable.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    tlg86 said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    I thought of you when I read that name. And Beaver Fever.
    Beaver Fever is a bit too loud, I do subtle.
    It's a real thing though, something to do with beaver-borne ticks sorta like Lyme's disease

    My sister is big in the rewilding world, and I get a lot of simple pleasure from posting on facebook photos called (accurately) Close-up of my sister's beaver and so on.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.

    The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.
    We know with a high degree of accuracy how much of the population has antibodies. It's very high for the high risk groups, and most of the unvaccinated will have some protection.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470855418243162113

    BoJo next, honestly how stupid can you be?

    Do you have any proof of this, or just hoping?
    I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
    Can you give us an example?
    No he cannot
    If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
    Shouldn't be difficult to find us some examples then.
    Assuming you mean examples of Crerars' hints:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470821697033015312?s=20 "Watch this space"

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469788225673826308?s=20 "Incoming"
    Dickless
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661
    Alistair said:

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Long quiz.
    Shoulda putta time limit on the questions.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661

    .

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470855418243162113

    BoJo next, honestly how stupid can you be?

    Do you have any proof of this, or just hoping?
    I don't have proof but Pippar has been teasing it for over a week
    Can you give us an example?
    No he cannot
    If you check out most of Pippa Crear's tweets from the last ten days she has hinted throughout that she knows more. Don't shoot the Correct Horse Battery messenger!
    Shouldn't be difficult to find us some examples then.
    Assuming you mean examples of Crerars' hints:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470821697033015312?s=20 "Watch this space"

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469788225673826308?s=20 "Incoming"
    Thanks, but I don't see why @RobD couldn't have trawled through them himself.

    You're spoiling him.
    True. I'm a right saddo.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.

    The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.

    In the Evening Standard tonight, one sentence said there were 2 million unvaccinated adults in London while another quoted 4-5 million nationally. Neither was evidenced in any way but that's what people will read.

    IF, and again I lack the knowledge of many on here, Omicron is better at transmission than Delta the chances of an unvaccinated adult who has so far avoided the virus contracting the Omicron variant seem quite high.

    Now, are we assuming those who contracted the virus in the spring of 2020 or early this year and have never been vaccinated still have some degree of antibody protection? I don't know - it seems implausible to this observer.

    So, anyone who had the virus in April 2020 and has not been vaccinated since is presumably at risk but of course we have no knowledge of those numbers.
    We actually do know, PHE does weekly surveillance of all 18+ for antibodies from vaccines or prior infection (they're slightly different so can easily be identified as one or the other). 95% of adults in the UK have got one or the other type of antibody, it's something like 85% have got antibodies from vaccines and 30% from prior infection with a big chunk of crossover.

    The question is what kind of immunity everyone has, we know two dose immunity against Omicron only gives around a 65% reduction in hospitalisations but we also know that >90% of over 60s have had three doses now so in the categories most likely to go to hospital there could be over a 95% reduction on hospitalisations from Omicron already.

    But yes, Omicron will definitely find that last 5% of adults who have no immunity at all.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Pulpstar said:

    Sunak abstained? Surely a mistake?

    Again, Rachel Reeves is unwell. He’s her pair I think so voting would be ungentlemanly conduct.
    In normal times yes, but Starmer and Johnson were strolling through the aye lobby today hand in glove.
    Sunak abstaining with Reeves just reduces the Govt maj by 2
    Maybe so but what else is he supposed to do? To vote while she cannot would be ungentlemanly. In any case, I suspect he’ll say that was the reason.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I'm not going to get truly outraged about this Downing Street quiz until we find out what the questions were!!!

    There was one about Priti Patel mangling the number of vaccinated people
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    darkage said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    I'm tending towards your view - though it would be good to understand how less likely a person is to transmit the virus vs an unvaccinated person. I did read a study of this about a month ago which said that the difference wasn't as much as you may think - but I'm damned if I can find it.

    The belief is out there that there is a vast difference and I strongly suspect this isn't true. I'd even go as far as saying that some of the lumpen would rather stand next to an infected person wearing a mask than a unvaccinated person. I think this is become a new 'class of person' issue and I find it most distasteful.
    I've asked this on here several times over the past few months. The vaccines seem to do something in reducing transmission, but the evidence is not definitive; and it is not absolute as the vaccinated can still get covid and pass it on. So the whole argument (vaccines make us safer) is not particularly strong. It has become clear to me that it is irrational and absurd to allow vaccinated people to avoid testing and quarantine requirements; as that means that many people will develop a false sense of security, have the virus and pass it on, often without realising as they are assymptomatic, and sometimes at large superspreader type events. Yet that is the policy a lot of people believe in. Ultimately, the vaccines are like a substitute for religion; when people are desperate they will believe in anything, and consequently it is futile trying to argue with people about them.

    I didn't listen to Johnson today, but it sounds like he is unable to think for himself and peddling the same myths about vaccination. The mandatory vaccination of medical workers law is evidence of the governments lack of foresight. If it is implement the NHS will lose a vast proportion of its staff, at a point in time when they are breaking under the pressure of Covid plus everything else. Not a good place to be in, and completely avoidable.

    That a significant proportion of NHS workers are unvaccinated is disappointing, but it would be an even bigger disappointment to see them leave the service. We cannot afford that to happen.

    Lib Dems could be hammering the government on this.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661
    Charles said:

    I'm not going to get truly outraged about this Downing Street quiz until we find out what the questions were!!!

    There was one about Priti Patel mangling the number of vaccinated people
    Also: How many omicron cases does Dominic Raab think are in hopsital? 1 point for each answer.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    darkage said:

    Covid madness update... went swimming today. A woman was actually wearing a mask whilst swimming. Then she wore it in the sauna as well.

    When I first read that I thought you meant a mask-with-snorkel…
  • PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
    The bigger and more stupid sin from the PM and govt here was the continued lying about the parties rather than the parties themselves. If they can get the press to focus on the minutiae of the parties instead of the lies, as seems to be happening now, that is good news for the govt. I agree the vast majority broke the rules and laws.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
    Phwoar
    Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂

    I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋‍♀️
    G'night

    I am deeply ashamed of what I now realise was a completely inappropriate post. I undertake not to make similar
    comments in future.
  • I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661

    I was in a Christmas quiz team called Santa's ho, ho, hoes between 2005 and 2019.

    Many moons ago in a Monday Night Pub Quiz, immediately after the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster one team called themselves Roll on, Roll over....
    Eugh!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
    The bigger and more stupid sin from the PM and govt here was the continued lying about the parties rather than the parties themselves. If they can get the press to focus on the minutiae of the parties instead of the lies, as seems to be happening now, that is good news for the govt. I agree the vast majority broke the rules and laws.
    I think I can see how people attending the ‘parties’ convinced themselves that they weren’t breaking rules. It’s like my mother’s ever expanding bubble. But yes, I think the PM could have handled this better, but then he’s basically not up to the job.
  • Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What's going to happen next is someone will be misidentified and an innocent person will be hounded for a few days.
    Happened before when some thickos couldn't tell the difference between Paedophile and Paediatrician....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
    Phwoar
    Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂

    I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋‍♀️
    G'night

    I am deeply ashamed of what I now realise was a completely inappropriate post. I undertake not to make similar
    comments in future.
    No! It was bloody funny. 😀. It’s crime was cheese.

    Now someone got to do “there’s a lot of it about - perhaps the government should act”
  • Every time Starmer has an absolutely mega key sound bite clip to camera I end up thinking Blair was a genius at this.

    Obviously, it shouldn't stop him being PM - at least he's not a lying alleged criminal, but...

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
    It's not the rule breaking that bothers me, it's the hypocrisy. They made the rules the rest of us had to live by for months and the proceeded to ignore them completely. The rules were and currently are nonsense, I mean that whole vaccine pass at 1am for a pub with a dancefloor vs no dancefloor is just ridiculous for example. But they made them, if they don't want to stick to them then get rid for all of us.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,292
    edited December 2021

    So, over 100 Tory backbenchers rebel against what (I assume) was a three-line Whip, in direct opposition to the instructions of their leader, the Prime Minister of the UK.

    And this just goes to show how weak and pathetic Starmer, the LOTO, is.

    Have I got that right?

    Amusing how opponents of the Labour Party are appalled that Labour isn't doing what they want.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552

    Andy_JS said:

    Has the HOC gone into recess now

    Thursday I think.
    I am fairly certain it is tonight
    You are right Big G.

    The speaker announced last week.

    Er no...

    https://whatson.parliament.uk/commons/2021-12-16/
    So it is Thursday.
  • The Conservative party backbone has been found.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.

    The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.

    In the Evening Standard tonight, one sentence said there were 2 million unvaccinated adults in London while another quoted 4-5 million nationally. Neither was evidenced in any way but that's what people will read.

    IF, and again I lack the knowledge of many on here, Omicron is better at transmission than Delta the chances of an unvaccinated adult who has so far avoided the virus contracting the Omicron variant seem quite high.

    Now, are we assuming those who contracted the virus in the spring of 2020 or early this year and have never been vaccinated still have some degree of antibody protection? I don't know - it seems implausible to this observer.

    So, anyone who had the virus in April 2020 and has not been vaccinated since is presumably at risk but of course we have no knowledge of those numbers.
    We actually do know, PHE does weekly surveillance of all 18+ for antibodies from vaccines or prior infection (they're slightly different so can easily be identified as one or the other). 95% of adults in the UK have got one or the other type of antibody, it's something like 85% have got antibodies from vaccines and 30% from prior infection with a big chunk of crossover.

    The question is what kind of immunity everyone has, we know two dose immunity against Omicron only gives around a 65% reduction in hospitalisations but we also know that >90% of over 60s have had three doses now so in the categories most likely to go to hospital there could be over a 95% reduction on hospitalisations from Omicron already.

    But yes, Omicron will definitely find that last 5% of adults who have no immunity at all.
    That's very interesting thank you. So, it's thought that 'only' c. 30% of the population have had Covid. I'm not doubting that but it's surprisingly low. Thank goodness for the vaccines!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
    Phwoar
    Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂

    I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋‍♀️
    G'night

    I am deeply ashamed of what I now realise was a completely inappropriate post. I undertake not to make similar
    comments in future.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ydD2hizE6g
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    If a 30-year old wants to risk an ongoing cough for 3 months, let them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.

    The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.

    In the Evening Standard tonight, one sentence said there were 2 million unvaccinated adults in London while another quoted 4-5 million nationally. Neither was evidenced in any way but that's what people will read.

    IF, and again I lack the knowledge of many on here, Omicron is better at transmission than Delta the chances of an unvaccinated adult who has so far avoided the virus contracting the Omicron variant seem quite high.

    Now, are we assuming those who contracted the virus in the spring of 2020 or early this year and have never been vaccinated still have some degree of antibody protection? I don't know - it seems implausible to this observer.

    So, anyone who had the virus in April 2020 and has not been vaccinated since is presumably at risk but of course we have no knowledge of those numbers.
    We actually do know, PHE does weekly surveillance of all 18+ for antibodies from vaccines or prior infection (they're slightly different so can easily be identified as one or the other). 95% of adults in the UK have got one or the other type of antibody, it's something like 85% have got antibodies from vaccines and 30% from prior infection with a big chunk of crossover.

    The question is what kind of immunity everyone has, we know two dose immunity against Omicron only gives around a 65% reduction in hospitalisations but we also know that >90% of over 60s have had three doses now so in the categories most likely to go to hospital there could be over a 95% reduction on hospitalisations from Omicron already.

    But yes, Omicron will definitely find that last 5% of adults who have no immunity at all.
    That's very interesting thank you. So, it's thought that 'only' c. 30% of the population have had Covid. I'm not doubting that but it's surprisingly low. Thank goodness for the vaccines!
    That's 18+, as we know millions and millions of kids have had COVID.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661

    The Conservative party backbone has been found.

    Which Conservative party was it at?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Is that why you have blue ears?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    MaxPB said:

    If Whitty and LSHTM's wild modelling predictions don't come to pass in New Year then surely Johnson is finally done?

    Almost half his backbench voted to stop this wild lurch to panic.

    I think he would be and so would they. If their advice turns out to be poor it may be seen as time to replace the advisors.

    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.
    We know perfectly well how this is going to pan out. If there's a tsunami of hospital cases then the models will be vindicated; if it fails to materialise then it will be claimed that the models were correct anyway but that the tsunami was successfully countered by the vaccines and the NPIs. Regardless, the models will continue to be treated as gospel (the total cockup in July having been conveniently forgotten) for every subsequent variant, and we'll be stuck in these panic cycles for years and years.

    But what can we do about it, eh? Nothing.
  • PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
    The bigger and more stupid sin from the PM and govt here was the continued lying about the parties rather than the parties themselves. If they can get the press to focus on the minutiae of the parties instead of the lies, as seems to be happening now, that is good news for the govt. I agree the vast majority broke the rules and laws.
    I think I can see how people attending the ‘parties’ convinced themselves that they weren’t breaking rules. It’s like my mother’s ever expanding bubble. But yes, I think the PM could have handled this better, but then he’s basically not up to the job.
    No, I think you can tell from the dummy press conference that it was common knowledge the rules were being broken, but they thought that was funny. They knew they were breaking the rules once it clearly was beyond a business meeting.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    MaxPB said:

    PB Tories now excusing breaking the rules, depressing

    I’m not a pb Tory, and I think what happened did break the rules and the spirit of them too. I can however see how it may have happened. PB has revelled in the stupidity of the restriction nonsenses for the last 20 months. Wear a mask to move round a pub, but not when sitting. Rule of six. And on and on. Hand on heart did any of us adhere to every single rule? My parents defind a bubble as pretty much every member of their family. They visited us and marched straight into the house when there was no household mixing. We ALL broke some restrictions/rules.
    It's not the rule breaking that bothers me, it's the hypocrisy. They made the rules the rest of us had to live by for months and the proceeded to ignore them completely. The rules were and currently are nonsense, I mean that whole vaccine pass at 1am for a pub with a dancefloor vs no dancefloor is just ridiculous for example. But they made them, if they don't want to stick to them then get rid for all of us.
    Yep, totally fair. The issue with the stupidity of the rules is that there will always be edge cases. So sports events with more than 10,000 people will need the Covid pass? Swindon home gate is typically 8,000 ish. Saturday is a Christmas game, traditionally a bumper crowd. Could be over 10,000. Do they need to check Covid passes or not? (I don’t care about the answer, it’s an illustration).
    In reality trying to micro manage behaviour was always going to lead to this kind of nonsense. I wish people could be trusted to be sensible, but I know for some that’s impossible. And so governments tinker at stupid rules, or even, pace Nicola today, guidelines that no more than three households should mix. On a given day, or can you have two round in the morning and another two in the afternoon?
    In the end vaccination and getting people to be sensible about risk is the only way out of this.
  • Sunak abstained? Surely a mistake?

    Again, Rachel Reeves is unwell. He’s her pair I think so voting would be ungentlemanly conduct.
    You pair with someone on the opposing side, not someone voting the same way you are.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
    Phwoar
    Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂

    I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋‍♀️
    G'night

    I am deeply ashamed of what I now realise was a completely inappropriate post. I undertake not to make similar
    comments in future.
    No! It was bloody funny. 😀. It’s crime was cheese.

    Now someone got to do “there’s a lot of it about - perhaps the government should act”
    Is it just me, or is that a line waiting for Sid James to say it?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    I will have to dig out some old calculations, but at one point we were seeing CFR of 30-40% in the UK for old people. Which is, literally, Black Death levels.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    The Lib Dems are paying to promote the Daily Mirror story on Shaun Bailey’s party onto the Facebook timelines of voters in North Shropshire https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1470877994340302854/photo/1
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    The odds have flipped again in N Shrops. LDs now narrow favourites.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is encouraging.

    Bugs across globe are evolving to eat plastic, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/14/bugs-across-globe-are-evolving-to-eat-plastic-study-finds
    … “We found multiple lines of evidence supporting the fact that the global microbiome’s plastic-degrading potential correlates strongly with measurements of environmental plastic pollution – a significant demonstration of how the environment is responding to the pressures we are placing on it,” said Prof Aleksej Zelezniak, at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden…

    Not encouraging if you’ve had plastic surgery? 😱
    Have you? :)
    No,I said earlier. Nothing. Nigel,brought it up earlier today. Nigel is having a plastic day 😂
    When younger I thought of bigger boobs, but happy now I didn’t
    Then earlier mused on the driver. Is it I’m content now because in a relationship. Is driver lonelyness? Is it driver idealism need it to get loved up all the time?
    Maybe studying art nude I saw so many paintings with small but pert bosoms like mine so realised it’s still looks good.
    Maybe no plastic surgery because I bohemian approach to what is and not glamour and conformity. I never go to salons or hairdressers. I’m a do-it-myself kind of girl. I paint my own nails, cut my own hair, scrub my own back and choose my own hair dyes.
    Lots of young women are getting it nowadays
    Phwoar
    Does this cheesy post deserve 5 likes and counting. Is this PBs level - mid sixties Carry On? 😂

    I am having early night because I am going into EVERY shop in town tomorrow take care 🙋‍♀️
    Ooh, Matron! Take her away!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,706
    edited December 2021

    Sunak abstained? Surely a mistake?

    Again, Rachel Reeves is unwell. He’s her pair I think so voting would be ungentlemanly conduct.
    You pair with someone on the opposing side, not someone voting the same way you are.
    delete
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    For those saying that the unvaxxed are being made into a separate group - they are correct.

    Over a certain age, being unvaxxed = being dead.

    Just look at how the care homes were cleaned out pre-vaccine and statistically, we also know that being over 70 is a virtual death sentence and being over 50 is likely to have complications and possibly permanent disablement

    People might also like to recall that a significant number of those in their 20s and 30s finish up with either long covid, heart conditions or lungs resembling chewed hamburger.

    The vaccines do make us "safer". If you are vaccinated you are less likely to die or have complications regardless of how you catch it. That is safer than being dead or disabled.

    Not true. At no stage has Covid killed everyone of a certain age it infects. My mother in laws neighbour, well into her eighties, threw off Covid in days. Died of pneumonia 6 months later.
    I will have to dig out some old calculations, but at one point we were seeing CFR of 30-40% in the UK for old people. Which is, literally, Black Death levels.
    But is not being unvaxxed = dead. Pretty grim I’ll grant you.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    edited December 2021
    jonny83 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stocky said:

    I've been pondering Streeting's speech today.

    1) He was asking MPs to imagine a NHS worker who was feeling scared about working alongside her unvaccinated work colleague. And he then went on to talk about if an unvaccinated NHS worker infected a patient how would the relative of that patient feel. I'm very unhappy about the way that unvaccinated people are being thought of in this way - as second class citizens - as though they are a stale fart.

    That mode of thinking was never particularly appropriate but it went out the window once it was clear being vaccinated doesn't actually stop you getting and transmitting the vaccine on, especially as all the virus does is get ever more infectious anyway.

    Yeah, sure, getting jabbed might reduce the chance of it, but vaccination now has to be viewed in terms of reducing the likelihood of putting yourself in overstretched hospitals and not really anything to do with protecting others by not inadvertently transmitting it to anyone else.
    It is worth remembering that mandatory vaccinations for medical workers have been around for years. To protect patients, colleagues and themselves.
    Are flu vaccines mandatory for NHS staff?

    I'm not opposed to it being brought in gradually, I just think it might be counterproductive to do it quite so quickly.
    It's not mandatory for Flu.

    MMR is mandatory at our trust and obviously depending where you work Hep B may be needed along with TB immunity confirmed.

    It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the mandatory Covid vaccines. We have via the Trust bulletin set out deadlines so that staff know when they need to have their 1st dose by so that they meet the April deadline for 2nd dose.

    I have already seen a number of staff contacting us trying to get out of having it...
    Same at my Trust.

    Hep B only for those doing invasive procedures etc. Flu vaccine heavily encouraged but not compulsory.

    Our occupational health are pursuing the unvaxxed, but line managers don't know, so could be unexpected gaps in April.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    What I'm still trying to figure out is where the Omicron hospitalisations are going to come from. Much like the doom models from July they seems to not take into account the level of immunity people have built up either with vaccines, infections or both. It's just a simple exercise of "this doubles every x days and y% will be hospitalised". I understand the need to be fast with projections in an emergency but this kind of simple model failed in July as well with less than a third of the overall predicted numbers being hospitalised and the R bumping along at 0.8-1.2 rather than the prediction of a constant 1.5, it seems that no one wants to learn from past mistakes.

    The problem I have with this is no one knows how many unvaccinated adults there are who have already derived protection via infection.

    In the Evening Standard tonight, one sentence said there were 2 million unvaccinated adults in London while another quoted 4-5 million nationally. Neither was evidenced in any way but that's what people will read.

    IF, and again I lack the knowledge of many on here, Omicron is better at transmission than Delta the chances of an unvaccinated adult who has so far avoided the virus contracting the Omicron variant seem quite high.

    Now, are we assuming those who contracted the virus in the spring of 2020 or early this year and have never been vaccinated still have some degree of antibody protection? I don't know - it seems implausible to this observer.

    So, anyone who had the virus in April 2020 and has not been vaccinated since is presumably at risk but of course we have no knowledge of those numbers.
    We actually do know, PHE does weekly surveillance of all 18+ for antibodies from vaccines or prior infection (they're slightly different so can easily be identified as one or the other). 95% of adults in the UK have got one or the other type of antibody, it's something like 85% have got antibodies from vaccines and 30% from prior infection with a big chunk of crossover.

    The question is what kind of immunity everyone has, we know two dose immunity against Omicron only gives around a 65% reduction in hospitalisations but we also know that >90% of over 60s have had three doses now so in the categories most likely to go to hospital there could be over a 95% reduction on hospitalisations from Omicron already.

    But yes, Omicron will definitely find that last 5% of adults who have no immunity at all.
    That's very interesting thank you. So, it's thought that 'only' c. 30% of the population have had Covid. I'm not doubting that but it's surprisingly low. Thank goodness for the vaccines!
    That's 18+, as we know millions and millions of kids have had COVID.
    Fair point. So probably more than 30% of children but as under 12s haven't been vaccinated the overall immunity in children might still be lower than in the adult population.

    Let's hope we don't end up regretting not vaccinating under 12s.
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