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The Number 10 party story is really cutting through to voters – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    The majority on the SC really are a bunch of unjudicial shits.

    Supreme court rules Texas abortion providers can sue over ban but won’t stop law
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2021/dec/10/supreme-court-texas-abortion-ban-law

    They will, of course, eventually rules that the madcap Texas scheme is unconstitutional (otherwise liberal states might try something similar with guns) - but they're not going to inject it in the meantime, as for now it stops most abortions happening, which suits their ideological preferences.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Pagan2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.

    We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.

    I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.

    Thank god for Steve Baker et al.

    "Again, calm yourself....hysterical ****s like you...". Make up your mind - do you want a calm discussion or a screaming match? I lean to being cautious, but I'm open to debating what measures actually help most with impact on society as little as possible. If I see a post with abuse and asterisks I just skip it, as I assume you just need to vent.

    I've therefore not bothered to understand your argument. But currently I think we don't know enough about Omicron, so we also don't know what the best strategy to protect the NHS is. Give everyone boosters? Lock down through the winter? Relax as it's mild? We don't know.

    It's therefore sensible to err on the safe side until we know more (wfh, masks, vaxports, no large events) without going totally overboard as we had to last year (no meals or family contact at all). If you think this is wrong, and are willing to put your view calmly, I'll read it with interest. Otherwise, don't bother.

    .

    Well said Nick.

    For once I am actually on the Government's side, they were right to put restrictions in and they acted quickly. They have my credit for that.
    They can put what restrictions they like out, I and many others are just going to stick two fingers up and ignore them. Tesco's today less than 40% mask wearing I would estimate. All those going restrictions are popular look at polls are ignoring that what people do and what they say are often different.
    Yes, I was in Asda this lunchtime and would estimate only around 40-50% mask-wearing (some social groups notably less so than others).

    But the rules/requests as proposed are so nuts that the public won't take them seriously anyway: work at home / party with your mates down the pub. How is that in any way consistent. Sure we know why the govt wants it like that - so it doesn't have to bail out businesses again - but it's not saying that (and can't), so the face-value advice makes no sense.

    If Labour had any nous, they'd pick up on all that and say they'll only back new restrictions if they're consistent and come with support for those who'll be hit by them. Force the government to choose between probable defeat or jumping to Labour's tune.
    Sainsbury's c.95% this afternoon.
    Higher at Waitrose. I did not see a nostril.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    58,194 cases - significant jump

    Patients admitted up 3.7% in last 7 days. Not significant.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    What panic? Currently the medical powers that be are gathering the data and modelling the scenarios. Right now they are saying that they don't know enough for panic. But the more data they get (from SA and here and everywhere else) the worse it looks and the bigger the impact on the NHS.

    I know you aren't suggesting that the medics here are just making it up because they think lockdown is fun. But what are you suggesting? It can't be that the medics are wrong because they have all the data and experience and training and you have what you have read on Google.
    Panic, heres one of many, and this guy is an "expert".

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-variant-as-bad-news-as-you-can-possibly-get-for-christmas-leading-scientist-says-12491001
    All it means is that he knows what he's talking about and you don't!
  • Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I am quite happy to penalise the unvaccinated.

    The unvaxxed are the equivalent of Max Verstappen eating a Hawaiian pizza on Christmas Eve watching Die Hard.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    The split in the vote there is the problem – Labour need to give the Liberals the nod and the wink somehow.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.

    We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.

    I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.

    Thank god for Steve Baker et al.

    "Again, calm yourself....hysterical ****s like you...". Make up your mind - do you want a calm discussion or a screaming match? I lean to being cautious, but I'm open to debating what measures actually help most with impact on society as little as possible. If I see a post with abuse and asterisks I just skip it, as I assume you just need to vent.

    I've therefore not bothered to understand your argument. But currently I think we don't know enough about Omicron, so we also don't know what the best strategy to protect the NHS is. Give everyone boosters? Lock down through the winter? Relax as it's mild? We don't know.

    It's therefore sensible to err on the safe side until we know more (wfh, masks, vaxports, no large events) without going totally overboard as we had to last year (no meals or family contact at all). If you think this is wrong, and are willing to put your view calmly, I'll read it with interest. Otherwise, don't bother.

    .

    Well said Nick.

    For once I am actually on the Government's side, they were right to put restrictions in and they acted quickly. They have my credit for that.
    They can put what restrictions they like out, I and many others are just going to stick two fingers up and ignore them. Tesco's today less than 40% mask wearing I would estimate. All those going restrictions are popular look at polls are ignoring that what people do and what they say are often different.
    But there's not much you can do if they shutter all non essential business. No pubs, caffs, restos. I guess you can have sneaky parties in your friends' houses, but you might be surprised how many of your friends will be scared and say No

    It is human psychology. The contagion of fear
    It must be difficult living on your own because you have no sense of perspective. And I don't make light of that at all.

    But in the social world I can tell you that very few people are scared in that way.

    Why I am inviting 20 people to my bungalow this very Saturday for some medium sweet white wine, cheese cubes, and a vol au vent. None has cancelled despite my asking if they were happy to come.
    It must be difficult being so stupid. And I don't make light of that at all.
    Oh dear. What an unpleasant troll you are. Desist.
    God no let him at it. As I said, people need PB to fulfil a psychological need and @Chris seems to be one of those. Very happy for him to vent on here and at me.

    I would like him to respond on the bet I have offered but will have to wait for that.
    Its like the chap at football who rants and raves at the players for 90 minutes, gets it all out of his system and then is fine for the next week.
    The key thing is not to take anything posted on here personally, even if its intended that way...
    Indeed.

    And now like Leon, I have to be off. Not together, sadly.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    The elephant in the room. I sense that the South Africans are becoming increasingly frustrated that nobody seems to be listening to them. They might be wrong, of course, or they might be ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra .
    On this page there is a 1 hour 40 minute briefing by various Doctors and the SA Health Minister today on the current situation in SA. Absolutely no sign of panic at all, the stats on hospitals are amazing given how long Omicron has been in SA. The lady from 43 minutes onwards is most enlightening, there is hardly anyone in hospital with just Covid and oxygen is hardly being used.

    https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/coronavirus-all-the-latest-news-about-covid-19-in-south-africa-and-the-world-20200312

    If we go back to March 2020, our peak had passed before the lockdown happened by about a week, deaths peaked at 1122 in early April. Remember our first case was not discovered until the 29/1/2020 and Omicron is far more transmissable than Alpha. If Omicron was in anyway as serious as Alpha then SA would be seeing huge rises in Oxygen dependant patients and huge numbers of deaths. None of this is happening at all.
    On the other hand, no less than 20% of South African health workers are off with covid...

    https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials/2021-12-09-alarm-as-almost-20-of-south-africas-healthcare-workers-contract-covid/?s=09
    Watch the video, it is incredibly positive.
  • Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I am quite happy to penalise the unvaccinated.

    The unvaxxed are the equivalent of Max Verstappen eating a Hawaiian pizza on Christmas Eve watching Die Hard.
    Do you consider Home Alone to be a Christmas movie?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    TimS said:

    O/T France new poll - Odoxa for Nouvel Observateur
    (7-9 december fieldwork, changes compared to mid november)

    Macron 24 (-1)
    Pecresse 19 (+10)
    Le Pen 17 (-1.5)
    Zemmour 12 (-2.5)
    Melenchon 10 (+1.5)
    Jadot 6 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-2)
    Dupont-Aignan 2.5 (-1.5)
    All others 6.5 (-2)

    2nd round
    Macron 51 / Pecresse 49
    (also tested : Macron 58 / Le Pen 42)

    I think Pecresse has got this.

    Time for Starmer’s team to start making some low level connections with her people.
    Looking good for her and I'm on at 10s - smugerooni city.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,148
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    The elephant in the room. I sense that the South Africans are becoming increasingly frustrated that nobody seems to be listening to them. They might be wrong, of course, or they might be ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra .
    On this page there is a 1 hour 40 minute briefing by various Doctors and the SA Health Minister today on the current situation in SA. Absolutely no sign of panic at all, the stats on hospitals are amazing given how long Omicron has been in SA. The lady from 43 minutes onwards is most enlightening, there is hardly anyone in hospital with just Covid and oxygen is hardly being used.

    https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/coronavirus-all-the-latest-news-about-covid-19-in-south-africa-and-the-world-20200312

    If we go back to March 2020, our peak had passed before the lockdown happened by about a week, deaths peaked at 1122 in early April. Remember our first case was not discovered until the 29/1/2020 and Omicron is far more transmissable than Alpha. If Omicron was in anyway as serious as Alpha then SA would be seeing huge rises in Oxygen dependant patients and huge numbers of deaths. None of this is happening at all.
    On the other hand, no less than 20% of South African health workers are off with covid...

    https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials/2021-12-09-alarm-as-almost-20-of-south-africas-healthcare-workers-contract-covid/?s=09
    Surely that's also quite good news?

    That the SA health system is holding up well, despite one in five staff being off with Covid is highly suggestive that (a) it's incredibly infectious, but (b) most Omicron cases are relatively mild.
  • Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I'll answer, even though I suspect you are not serious.

    Pay people for every jab they get. Maybe £20 a shot. Withdraw child benefit from those who are due a jab but choose not to have one for either themselves or any of their children (subject to medical exemptions.)

    The two amounts set so that the the total amount of the carrot paid out equals the total amount raised from the stick.

    Those already fully vaccinated would be unaffected (at least until they get their 4th jab well into next year.)

    Some of the unvaccinated would do the right thing and receive money. They're not being penalised.

    Others of the unvaccinated, the hard liners and the idiots, would choose to do the wrong think and lose a significant amount of money. It's their choice to penalise themselves. And it would still be a small proportion of the billions they're costing the country by their intransigence.

    Overall, that's not penalising anyone. It's giving them a financial incentive to choose.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    The elephant in the room. I sense that the South Africans are becoming increasingly frustrated that nobody seems to be listening to them. They might be wrong, of course, or they might be ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra .
    On this page there is a 1 hour 40 minute briefing by various Doctors and the SA Health Minister today on the current situation in SA. Absolutely no sign of panic at all, the stats on hospitals are amazing given how long Omicron has been in SA. The lady from 43 minutes onwards is most enlightening, there is hardly anyone in hospital with just Covid and oxygen is hardly being used.

    https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/coronavirus-all-the-latest-news-about-covid-19-in-south-africa-and-the-world-20200312

    If we go back to March 2020, our peak had passed before the lockdown happened by about a week, deaths peaked at 1122 in early April. Remember our first case was not discovered until the 29/1/2020 and Omicron is far more transmissable than Alpha. If Omicron was in anyway as serious as Alpha then SA would be seeing huge rises in Oxygen dependant patients and huge numbers of deaths. None of this is happening at all.
    That is a very interesting video – thanks for posting it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
    And all their problems come from totally unforced errors. I talked to another parent on the way back from school; he has a young child with Downs. He said he is totally fed up with Covid, and was spitting blood at the party and the 'smirking'.

    It was hard to disagree with him.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Pay people for every jab they get. Maybe £20 a shot.

    Entirely doable.

    We're on the ONS covid testing programme. Every month they come and take a PCR test and an antigen blood test. In return we get £25 of vouchers usable at a whole bunch of places.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    This is glorious.

    @SamCoatesSky:
    Asked whether Dominic Cummings’ claim the PM knew about the Dec 18 2020 Xmas party (because he wd have walked from Cabinet Office Covid briefing to his flat takes him past the press office where alleged event took place) PM’s spokesman says it would not be right to comment

    @Dominic2306:
    I did not say that Sam - I said IF he was in building, THEN he wd have seen as he walks past there to get to flat... But maybe he was up to something else that night...

    I've been pondering if Boris had an alibi that he can't use in public in case Carrie hears of it.
  • Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I am quite happy to penalise the unvaccinated.

    The unvaxxed are the equivalent of Max Verstappen eating a Hawaiian pizza on Christmas Eve watching Die Hard.
    Do you consider Home Alone to be a Christmas movie?
    Yes, because it was released in December and the plot is intrinsically linked to Christmas.

    Die Hard was released in July and the story could work easily well at any time of the year.

    Christmas films are simply not released in July.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    What panic? Currently the medical powers that be are gathering the data and modelling the scenarios. Right now they are saying that they don't know enough for panic. But the more data they get (from SA and here and everywhere else) the worse it looks and the bigger the impact on the NHS.

    I know you aren't suggesting that the medics here are just making it up because they think lockdown is fun. But what are you suggesting? It can't be that the medics are wrong because they have all the data and experience and training and you have what you have read on Google.
    Panic, heres one of many, and this guy is an "expert".

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-variant-as-bad-news-as-you-can-possibly-get-for-christmas-leading-scientist-says-12491001
    All it means is that he knows what he's talking about and you don't!
    Its a betting site, £100 donation to this site if it is proved in 2 months that Omicron was a good mutation compared to Delta?

    Im not an expert at all, watch the video from SA. Omicron is in full effect there. What happens there will happen here.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,659

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    Treat it like smoking.

    You want to smoke? Well you can't come in here.
    You want to remain unvaccinated?... Well you can't come in here either.
  • glw said:

    This is glorious.

    @SamCoatesSky:
    Asked whether Dominic Cummings’ claim the PM knew about the Dec 18 2020 Xmas party (because he wd have walked from Cabinet Office Covid briefing to his flat takes him past the press office where alleged event took place) PM’s spokesman says it would not be right to comment

    @Dominic2306:
    I did not say that Sam - I said IF he was in building, THEN he wd have seen as he walks past there to get to flat... But maybe he was up to something else that night...

    I've been pondering if Boris had an alibi that he can't use in public in case Carrie hears of it.
    I thought somebody looked at his diary for the day and he was away from Downing Street during the day (in Derby), but returned to London in the evening.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Absolutely and I really feel for him. It must be awful, unbelievably so.

    The government imo has contributed greatly (I will stop short of saying intentionally) to the anxiety and mental health damage of millions of people for largely political reasons. ie they have thought about how it will all "play" rather than the totality of peoples' mental, physical health.

    It can't go on. I don't want one person to die that shouldn't die but we simply cannot have the continued shadow of these restrictions or the threat of them.
    Absolutely. We are are perennially either under restrictions or threatened by them. That's an impossible way to live. And my best wishes to @TheScreamingEagles 's son. The effect of this on the young is tragic, for a virus that barely affects them.
    We're back to how a government keeps order and provides basic services. TSE's contacts said the government have seen figures where the NHS collapses. Lets play the scenario - Omipox is everywhere, surgeries and hospitals have people dying in the carpark. People would take matters into their own hands - you seriously saying you Philip, TOPPING et al will be carrying on as if life is normal?

    This is why SAGE had a psychologist on it. They need to understand how people will behave. And I don't think for one second that anyone is imposing restrictions for shits and giggles, not on this scale.

    You keep implying that I and others have a semi over all this, that we are practically cheering on the ending of normal life and the imposition of hell. We really truly are not - the difference is that we are prepared to suffer it if we have to, knowing that if we don't we will all end up doing so anyway.
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Again, calm yourself. Let's suppose you and Chris are right. 800k cases a day shortly. So what's the plan. We can't eradicate so let's lock down. And wait. And guess what, the virus will wait so when we unlock ka-pow! It hits us and we get the 800k cases/day.

    We really have to trust (yes, I mean hope) the vaccines do their job and the NHS can cope.

    I really don't see an unlocking point if we lockdown now. Beth Rigby got it right. And hysterical ****s like you lead the govt to believe they have the people on their side.

    Thank god for Steve Baker et al.

    "Again, calm yourself....hysterical ****s like you...". Make up your mind - do you want a calm discussion or a screaming match? I lean to being cautious, but I'm open to debating what measures actually help most with impact on society as little as possible. If I see a post with abuse and asterisks I just skip it, as I assume you just need to vent.

    I've therefore not bothered to understand your argument. But currently I think we don't know enough about Omicron, so we also don't know what the best strategy to protect the NHS is. Give everyone boosters? Lock down through the winter? Relax as it's mild? We don't know.

    It's therefore sensible to err on the safe side until we know more (wfh, masks, vaxports, no large events) without going totally overboard as we had to last year (no meals or family contact at all). If you think this is wrong, and are willing to put your view calmly, I'll read it with interest. Otherwise, don't bother.

    .

    Well said Nick.

    For once I am actually on the Government's side, they were right to put restrictions in and they acted quickly. They have my credit for that.
    They can put what restrictions they like out, I and many others are just going to stick two fingers up and ignore them. Tesco's today less than 40% mask wearing I would estimate. All those going restrictions are popular look at polls are ignoring that what people do and what they say are often different.
    But there's not much you can do if they shutter all non essential business. No pubs, caffs, restos. I guess you can have sneaky parties in your friends' houses, but you might be surprised how many of your friends will be scared and say No

    It is human psychology. The contagion of fear
    It must be difficult living on your own because you have no sense of perspective. And I don't make light of that at all.

    But in the social world I can tell you that very few people are scared in that way.

    Why I am inviting 20 people to my bungalow this very Saturday for some medium sweet white wine, cheese cubes, and a vol au vent. None has cancelled despite my asking if they were happy to come.
    Do you have little pickled onions, bts of pineapple, and cocktail sticks, and some Black Forst Gateau? I'm fascinated.
    Don’t forget the fondue set.
  • Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I am quite happy to penalise the unvaccinated.

    The unvaxxed are the equivalent of Max Verstappen eating a Hawaiian pizza on Christmas Eve watching Die Hard.
    Die Hard IS definitely a Christmas movie according to its writer, Steven E de Souza. But of course TSE knows best :lol:

    https://www.scriptapart.com/episodes/episode-17-die-hard-steven-e-de-souza-interview
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    UK Local R

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
    What we want is one from Shropshire N. I'm tempted to agree with those who think a national Labour revival will cost the LD's the seat.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    SAGE: "preliminary modelling suggests that without any changes to measures in place, the number of hospitalisations from Omicron may reach 1,000 per day or higher in England by the end of the year (and
    still be increasing at that point)."

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469342174345105415
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    The elephant in the room. I sense that the South Africans are becoming increasingly frustrated that nobody seems to be listening to them. They might be wrong, of course, or they might be ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra .
    On this page there is a 1 hour 40 minute briefing by various Doctors and the SA Health Minister today on the current situation in SA. Absolutely no sign of panic at all, the stats on hospitals are amazing given how long Omicron has been in SA. The lady from 43 minutes onwards is most enlightening, there is hardly anyone in hospital with just Covid and oxygen is hardly being used.

    https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/coronavirus-all-the-latest-news-about-covid-19-in-south-africa-and-the-world-20200312

    If we go back to March 2020, our peak had passed before the lockdown happened by about a week, deaths peaked at 1122 in early April. Remember our first case was not discovered until the 29/1/2020 and Omicron is far more transmissable than Alpha. If Omicron was in anyway as serious as Alpha then SA would be seeing huge rises in Oxygen dependant patients and huge numbers of deaths. None of this is happening at all.
    On the other hand, no less than 20% of South African health workers are off with covid...

    https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials/2021-12-09-alarm-as-almost-20-of-south-africas-healthcare-workers-contract-covid/?s=09
    Surely that's also quite good news?

    That the SA health system is holding up well, despite one in five staff being off with Covid is highly suggestive that (a) it's incredibly infectious, but (b) most Omicron cases are relatively mild.
    The video is well worth watching – some serious professionals interviewed and some interesting data.
  • Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    The elephant in the room. I sense that the South Africans are becoming increasingly frustrated that nobody seems to be listening to them. They might be wrong, of course, or they might be ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra .
    In fairness, the Americans seem to be taking the SA data more seriously. Maybe the panic is a UK thing.
    What panic? Specifically. Even after presenting the work in progress of infections doubling every 2.3 days and a transmission rate through the roof, the powers that be are far from panic. Indeed Sturgeon answered why we aren't imposing restrictions now with "do what you're doing but do it safely". That isn't panic.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    UK deaths

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  • Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    The superspreaders in primary schools was part of the plan. It must have been. We know the covid risk to the very young is extremely low (so much so that the vaccine is possibly worse), and presumably a wave passing through primaries this term will have been modelled. It gets a lot of cases out of the way before the winter, and delivers protection for the children. Hence why there've been only token restrictions in primary schools that experience cases.

    Of course, the government can't say as much openly.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    Age related data

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,659
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I'll answer, even though I suspect you are not serious.

    Pay people for every jab they get. Maybe £20 a shot. Withdraw child benefit from those who are due a jab but choose not to have one for either themselves or any of their children (subject to medical exemptions.)

    The two amounts set so that the the total amount of the carrot paid out equals the total amount raised from the stick.

    Those already fully vaccinated would be unaffected (at least until they get their 4th jab well into next year.)

    Some of the unvaccinated would do the right thing and receive money. They're not being penalised.

    Others of the unvaccinated, the hard liners and the idiots, would choose to do the wrong think and lose a significant amount of money. It's their choice to penalise themselves. And it would still be a small proportion of the billions they're costing the country by their intransigence.

    Overall, that's not penalising anyone. It's giving them a financial incentive to choose.

    You're suggesting paying £60 to the people who are so far unvaccinated and nowt to those who've already had their 3 jabs?

    I can see that going down well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    SAGE: "preliminary modelling suggests that without any changes to measures in place, the number of hospitalisations from Omicron may reach 1,000 per day or higher in England by the end of the year (and
    still be increasing at that point)."

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469342174345105415

    So obvious SAGE has been pushing for much more significant measures, probably another lockdown. Witty statement of "the cabinet signed off on Plan B" was clear indication this isn't my decision.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    58k infections in the UK - that's the highest I can remember in a long time.

    https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1469337624599048196?s=20

    Somewhere recently I saw a stat that each winter around 30% of the entire population is infected with flu. That makes sense based on flu IFR of 0.05-0.1% as this would mean deaths of 10-20k per winter, which is what we tend to get.

    If Omicron infects a similar number of people over the next 3 months then that will equate to daily infections of 200k, thus reported cases of probably around 100k.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    The elephant in the room. I sense that the South Africans are becoming increasingly frustrated that nobody seems to be listening to them. They might be wrong, of course, or they might be ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra .
    On this page there is a 1 hour 40 minute briefing by various Doctors and the SA Health Minister today on the current situation in SA. Absolutely no sign of panic at all, the stats on hospitals are amazing given how long Omicron has been in SA. The lady from 43 minutes onwards is most enlightening, there is hardly anyone in hospital with just Covid and oxygen is hardly being used.

    https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/coronavirus-all-the-latest-news-about-covid-19-in-south-africa-and-the-world-20200312

    If we go back to March 2020, our peak had passed before the lockdown happened by about a week, deaths peaked at 1122 in early April. Remember our first case was not discovered until the 29/1/2020 and Omicron is far more transmissable than Alpha. If Omicron was in anyway as serious as Alpha then SA would be seeing huge rises in Oxygen dependant patients and huge numbers of deaths. None of this is happening at all.
    On the other hand, no less than 20% of South African health workers are off with covid...

    https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials/2021-12-09-alarm-as-almost-20-of-south-africas-healthcare-workers-contract-covid/?s=09
    Surely that's also quite good news?

    That the SA health system is holding up well, despite one in five staff being off with Covid is highly suggestive that (a) it's incredibly infectious, but (b) most Omicron cases are relatively mild.
    (c) their health service is seriously overstaffed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I am quite happy to penalise the unvaccinated.

    The unvaxxed are the equivalent of Max Verstappen eating a Hawaiian pizza on Christmas Eve watching Die Hard.
    Do you consider Home Alone to be a Christmas movie?
    Yes, because it was released in December and the plot is intrinsically linked to Christmas.

    Die Hard was released in July and the story could work easily well at any time of the year.

    Christmas films are simply not released in July.
    Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty. There is a major plot hole in that a Christmas party is being staged on Christmas Eve, which the scriptwriters weakly try to explain away by function of it being a Japanese bank. The audience is asked to suspend its disbelief for that, and most do, but it came to trouble me as a flaw years many years later.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    UK COVID summary

    - Cases up. Steady in the over 50s..
    - Admissions up, in the 18-84 range. 85+ rather flat (England only data)
    - Deaths have stopped falling - looks to have flattened out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,659
    TimS said:

    58k infections in the UK - that's the highest I can remember in a long time.

    https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1469337624599048196?s=20

    Somewhere recently I saw a stat that each winter around 30% of the entire population is infected with flu. That makes sense based on flu IFR of 0.05-0.1% as this would mean deaths of 10-20k per winter, which is what we tend to get.

    If Omicron infects a similar number of people over the next 3 months then that will equate to daily infections of 200k, thus reported cases of probably around 100k.

    Highest since 9/1/2021.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989

    Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty.

    No, they expected the management team to be there.
  • @PickardJE
    3m
    just the most perfect tweet

    Perfect indeed.

    If most like him do so there will be more rather than less people wanting to go to these places because they will become far safer venues, free of the unvaccinated most likely to infect us. And it will be a lot easier to get tickets for the Wolves as all the anti-vaxxers put their season ticket seats up for resale.

    He is a even more of an idiot though, because he seems to be unaware that all he has to do to continue as an anti-vaxxer and get around this is to take a lateral flow test each time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    glw said:

    This is glorious.

    @SamCoatesSky:
    Asked whether Dominic Cummings’ claim the PM knew about the Dec 18 2020 Xmas party (because he wd have walked from Cabinet Office Covid briefing to his flat takes him past the press office where alleged event took place) PM’s spokesman says it would not be right to comment

    @Dominic2306:
    I did not say that Sam - I said IF he was in building, THEN he wd have seen as he walks past there to get to flat... But maybe he was up to something else that night...

    I've been pondering if Boris had an alibi that he can't use in public in case Carrie hears of it.
    I thought somebody looked at his diary for the day and he was away from Downing Street during the day (in Derby), but returned to London in the evening.
    I would be annoyed if someone had a party in my house and didn't invite me!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    The elephant in the room. I sense that the South Africans are becoming increasingly frustrated that nobody seems to be listening to them. They might be wrong, of course, or they might be ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra .
    In fairness, the Americans seem to be taking the SA data more seriously. Maybe the panic is a UK thing.
    What panic? Specifically. Even after presenting the work in progress of infections doubling every 2.3 days and a transmission rate through the roof, the powers that be are far from panic. Indeed Sturgeon answered why we aren't imposing restrictions now with "do what you're doing but do it safely". That isn't panic.
    I'm not talking about Wee Niki! I'm talking about the public – cancelling Christmas parties left, right and centre in the face of government guidance. I realise that this doesn't apply to you, and I hope you have a fantastic weekend down here and thoroughly enjoy yourself sir.
  • Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I am quite happy to penalise the unvaccinated.

    The unvaxxed are the equivalent of Max Verstappen eating a Hawaiian pizza on Christmas Eve watching Die Hard.
    Do you consider Home Alone to be a Christmas movie?
    Yes, because it was released in December and the plot is intrinsically linked to Christmas.

    Die Hard was released in July and the story could work easily well at any time of the year.

    Christmas films are simply not released in July.
    World War 2 movies like Saving Private Ryan are simply not released in 1998? Or Dunkirk in 2017?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm surprised by the CricViz Live Win Probability in the cricket.

    Simply, how can Draw be 19%?

    The chance of rain is small. And even if there is some, it will likely only have a modest impact. And the days can run long if they lose 30 minutes.

    England is still 60-odd behind, with two wickets down.

    For a draw to happen, England has to amass a total that Australia doesn't bother chasing, which means they need to get to a lead of 250-300, and Australia only has two (maybe two and a half) sessions to get there. That means they need to bat until midway through the morning on the fifth day. That's almost four more sessions, scoring at a decent run rate. And then Australia has to not be bowled out.

    That has to be a 5-10% chance, not a 19% one.

    England batted well today, if with an element of luck. I agree on the needing to bat well into the 13th session (at least) but that's not *too* unreasonable, particularly with two batsmen who've already made 70-80. I don't think that's a 1-in-20 event; I'd put it at 10-12%.
    Morning session is key. Get through that with zero to one more wickets down and a 50 run lead and they’ll start to believe the game capable of being saved. Hopefully Root and Malan had a nice lucozade and an early night.
    They ought not to be aspiring to Draw imo after a morning session like that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,148

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    The superspreaders in primary schools was part of the plan. It must have been. We know the covid risk to the very young is extremely low (so much so that the vaccine is possibly worse), and presumably a wave passing through primaries this term will have been modelled. It gets a lot of cases out of the way before the winter, and delivers protection for the children. Hence why there've been only token restrictions in primary schools that experience cases.

    Of course, the government can't say as much openly.
    It's simply not true to say the vaccine risk - for young kids - is worse.

    Part of the problem is that estimates of the danger of each were predicated on the disease having largely disappeared, and therefore the certainty of a very small chance (i.e. getting the vaccine) was being compared to a small chance of getting the disease times by a larger chance of the disease killing (or hospitalising) you.

    With Covid rampant in schools, the numbers change.

    And a surprisingly large number of children have died (or been hospitalisaed) in the UK from Covid, and that's despite not everyone having caught the disease.

    I think the US has this right: vaccinated down to five.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
    What we want is one from Shropshire N. I'm tempted to agree with those who think a national Labour revival will cost the LD's the seat.
    I keep thinking that 50/1 Labour in NS is bonkers. Or is it me that's bonkers?
  • Scott_xP said:

    SAGE: "preliminary modelling suggests that without any changes to measures in place, the number of hospitalisations from Omicron may reach 1,000 per day or higher in England by the end of the year (and
    still be increasing at that point)."

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469342174345105415

    So obvious SAGE has been pushing for much more significant measures, probably another lockdown. Witty statement of "the cabinet signed off on Plan B" was clear indication this isn't my decision.
    Just a question of what day the lockdown starts now to be honest. Next Monday or New Year's day.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I am quite happy to penalise the unvaccinated.

    The unvaxxed are the equivalent of Max Verstappen eating a Hawaiian pizza on Christmas Eve watching Die Hard.
    Do you consider Home Alone to be a Christmas movie?
    Yes, because it was released in December and the plot is intrinsically linked to Christmas.

    Die Hard was released in July and the story could work easily well at any time of the year.

    Christmas films are simply not released in July.
    Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty. There is a major plot hole in that a Christmas party is being staged on Christmas Eve, which the scriptwriters weakly try to explain away by function of it being a Japanese bank. The audience is asked to suspend its disbelief for that, and most do, but it came to trouble me as a flaw years many years later.
    https://www.scriptapart.com/episodes/episode-17-die-hard-steven-e-de-souza-interview

    Welcome to the party, listeners. On this very special festive bonus episode of Script Apart, we’re celebrating the holidays the only way we know how: with a deep dive into the writing of Die Hard, courtesy of none other than the film’s co-writer, Steven E De Souza. Yes, it’s a Christmas film. In fact, for countless fans around the world, Die Hard is the Christmas movie: a touching yuletide tale of family reconciliation, that just so happens to feature a tonne of explosions.
  • Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I am quite happy to penalise the unvaccinated.

    The unvaxxed are the equivalent of Max Verstappen eating a Hawaiian pizza on Christmas Eve watching Die Hard.
    Do you consider Home Alone to be a Christmas movie?
    Yes, because it was released in December and the plot is intrinsically linked to Christmas.

    Die Hard was released in July and the story could work easily well at any time of the year.

    Christmas films are simply not released in July.
    Do you consider Miracle on 34th Street to be a Christmas movie?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    The elephant in the room. I sense that the South Africans are becoming increasingly frustrated that nobody seems to be listening to them. They might be wrong, of course, or they might be ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra .
    On this page there is a 1 hour 40 minute briefing by various Doctors and the SA Health Minister today on the current situation in SA. Absolutely no sign of panic at all, the stats on hospitals are amazing given how long Omicron has been in SA. The lady from 43 minutes onwards is most enlightening, there is hardly anyone in hospital with just Covid and oxygen is hardly being used.

    https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/coronavirus-all-the-latest-news-about-covid-19-in-south-africa-and-the-world-20200312

    If we go back to March 2020, our peak had passed before the lockdown happened by about a week, deaths peaked at 1122 in early April. Remember our first case was not discovered until the 29/1/2020 and Omicron is far more transmissable than Alpha. If Omicron was in anyway as serious as Alpha then SA would be seeing huge rises in Oxygen dependant patients and huge numbers of deaths. None of this is happening at all.
    On the other hand, no less than 20% of South African health workers are off with covid...

    https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials/2021-12-09-alarm-as-almost-20-of-south-africas-healthcare-workers-contract-covid/?s=09
    Surely that's also quite good news?

    That the SA health system is holding up well, despite one in five staff being off with Covid is highly suggestive that (a) it's incredibly infectious, but (b) most Omicron cases are relatively mild.
    (c) their health service is seriously overstaffed.
    I don't find that very plausible!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
    What we want is one from Shropshire N. I'm tempted to agree with those who think a national Labour revival will cost the LD's the seat.
    Would be a shame. A case of every silver lining ...
  • Scott_xP said:

    Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty.

    No, they expected the management team to be there.
    And remember, folks, to watch Love Actually immediately before watching Die Hard so that you see Alan Rickman getting his just deserts.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    O/T France new poll - Odoxa for Nouvel Observateur
    (7-9 december fieldwork, changes compared to mid november)

    Macron 24 (-1)
    Pecresse 19 (+10)
    Le Pen 17 (-1.5)
    Zemmour 12 (-2.5)
    Melenchon 10 (+1.5)
    Jadot 6 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-2)
    Dupont-Aignan 2.5 (-1.5)
    All others 6.5 (-2)

    2nd round
    Macron 51 / Pecresse 49
    (also tested : Macron 58 / Le Pen 42)

    I think Pecresse has got this.

    Time for Starmer’s team to start making some low level connections with her people.
    Looking good for her and I'm on at 10s - smugerooni city.
    Interesting. Not that it should matter – but it does, particularly in France – she looks every inch the stylised version of French womanhood. A run-off between her and Macron would be very exciting I dare say.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    SAGE: "preliminary modelling suggests that without any changes to measures in place, the number of hospitalisations from Omicron may reach 1,000 per day or higher in England by the end of the year (and
    still be increasing at that point)."

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469342174345105415

    So obvious SAGE has been pushing for much more significant measures, probably another lockdown. Witty statement of "the cabinet signed off on Plan B" was clear indication this isn't my decision.
    Just a question of what day the lockdown starts now to be honest. Next Monday or New Year's day.

    If I had to guess, SAGE want it now, Boris will wait until the New Year. And Graham Brady announces shortly after he needs an operation for a hernia after he picked up his postbag.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide!
    image
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    This is glorious.

    @SamCoatesSky:
    Asked whether Dominic Cummings’ claim the PM knew about the Dec 18 2020 Xmas party (because he wd have walked from Cabinet Office Covid briefing to his flat takes him past the press office where alleged event took place) PM’s spokesman says it would not be right to comment

    @Dominic2306:
    I did not say that Sam - I said IF he was in building, THEN he wd have seen as he walks past there to get to flat... But maybe he was up to something else that night...

    I've been pondering if Boris had an alibi that he can't use in public in case Carrie hears of it.
    I thought somebody looked at his diary for the day and he was away from Downing Street during the day (in Derby), but returned to London in the evening.
    I would be annoyed if someone had a party in my house and didn't invite me!
    :D
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    @PickardJE
    3m
    just the most perfect tweet

    Perfect indeed.

    If most like him do so there will be more rather than less people wanting to go to these places because they will become far safer venues, free of the unvaccinated most likely to infect us. And it will be a lot easier to get tickets for the Wolves as all the anti-vaxxers put their season ticket seats up for resale.

    He is a even more of an idiot though, because he seems to be unaware that all he has to do to continue as an anti-vaxxer and get around this is to take a lateral flow test each time.
    Apart from it wont just be the unvaccinated that boycott. My local pubs have been left in no doubt they ever ask me for a vaxport or to sign in then they can forget ever having my business ever again. Same with the restaurants I frequent.

    It is time frankly for civil disobedience to these measures and from what I have seen at least in my town people are pretty much ignoring it. In fact we had a company wide call this morning where the CEO said we are not putting out an announcement you must all work from home. The offices will be open and if you want to go in you can, if you prefer to work from home you can
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    So SA does not have a lockdown because hospitals are not overwhelmed at all yet we have a full lockdown in the UK?

    More good news:

    Dr Joe Phaala (SA Health Minister) says it now appears that, like previous variants, omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children.

    “Early data from hospital surveillance, also reports from public and private hospitals, indicate that admissions are largely in children admitted for other reasons, and then tested positive and for very short durations.”
    Are you posting the SA stuff because you think we're on opposite sides, that you can prove us wrong? Read your last post - Omicron is not causing severe respiratory symptoms in children. If that is how it plays here that is truly fantastic news.

    Do you think we are on the opposite side of this debate to you? That we want death and chaos and destruction? Its the *opposite*. My 10 year old daughter had Covid last weekend. She burned (mid 38s), was delirious, scared, broken. It was grim to watch. So if the SA experience shows that other parents will not have to watch their own infected kids go from grim to dead, that is bloody brilliant.

    As I have said a few times, we all need to drop this adversarial shit.
    Im sorry I just don't understand the panic thats happening, when the evidence from SA shows that there is no need.

    If SA hospitals were full of people on oxygen then yes there would be a need to panic, but they are not.

    SA is not in a panic and they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us and they have no plans for any restrictions.
    The elephant in the room. I sense that the South Africans are becoming increasingly frustrated that nobody seems to be listening to them. They might be wrong, of course, or they might be ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra .
    On this page there is a 1 hour 40 minute briefing by various Doctors and the SA Health Minister today on the current situation in SA. Absolutely no sign of panic at all, the stats on hospitals are amazing given how long Omicron has been in SA. The lady from 43 minutes onwards is most enlightening, there is hardly anyone in hospital with just Covid and oxygen is hardly being used.

    https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/coronavirus-all-the-latest-news-about-covid-19-in-south-africa-and-the-world-20200312

    If we go back to March 2020, our peak had passed before the lockdown happened by about a week, deaths peaked at 1122 in early April. Remember our first case was not discovered until the 29/1/2020 and Omicron is far more transmissable than Alpha. If Omicron was in anyway as serious as Alpha then SA would be seeing huge rises in Oxygen dependant patients and huge numbers of deaths. None of this is happening at all.
    On the other hand, no less than 20% of South African health workers are off with covid...

    https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials/2021-12-09-alarm-as-almost-20-of-south-africas-healthcare-workers-contract-covid/?s=09
    Surely that's also quite good news?

    That the SA health system is holding up well, despite one in five staff being off with Covid is highly suggestive that (a) it's incredibly infectious, but (b) most Omicron cases are relatively mild.
    (c) their health service is seriously overstaffed.
    I don't find that very plausible!
    Is there a health service ANYWHERE that is over-staffed?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    @Malmesbury
    Would you say London is suddenly putting on s strong showing in the caselympics after a very quiet Autumn?
  • Miracle on 34th Street was released 6 May 1947.

    I've always considered it a Christmas classic and my all time favourite Christmas movie (well the remake starring Richard Attenborough).

    But according to TSE I'm guessing this is no longer to be classed as a Christmas movie as it was released in May. Or is May OK, but July is off limits?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,659
    "Downing Street Christmas party cancelled"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59606793

    No 10 'gathering' it is then.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    edited December 2021
    LDs will probably win N. Shropshire.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Scott_xP said:

    Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty.

    No, they expected the management team to be there.
    Yes, the buildings management but not a company – that's true.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,659

    Miracle on 34th Street was released 6 May 1947.

    I've always considered it a Christmas classic and my all time favourite Christmas movie (well the remake starring Richard Attenborough).

    But according to TSE I'm guessing this is no longer to be classed as a Christmas movie as it was released in May. Or is May OK, but July is off limits?

    Can't we move on to something less contentious... like Brexit?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I am quite happy to penalise the unvaccinated.

    The unvaxxed are the equivalent of Max Verstappen eating a Hawaiian pizza on Christmas Eve watching Die Hard.
    Do you consider Home Alone to be a Christmas movie?
    Yes, because it was released in December and the plot is intrinsically linked to Christmas.

    Die Hard was released in July and the story could work easily well at any time of the year.

    Christmas films are simply not released in July.
    Do you consider Miracle on 34th Street to be a Christmas movie?
    Certainly not. It is THE Christmas move.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    I am quite happy to penalise the unvaccinated.

    The unvaxxed are the equivalent of Max Verstappen eating a Hawaiian pizza on Christmas Eve watching Die Hard.
    If only he would confine himself to such relatively innocuous behaviour.
  • Miracle on 34th Street was released 6 May 1947.

    I've always considered it a Christmas classic and my all time favourite Christmas movie (well the remake starring Richard Attenborough).

    But according to TSE I'm guessing this is no longer to be classed as a Christmas movie as it was released in May. Or is May OK, but July is off limits?

    Dunkirk can't be a WW2 film because TSE will point out to you it was released in 2017!
  • Scott_xP said:

    SAGE: "preliminary modelling suggests that without any changes to measures in place, the number of hospitalisations from Omicron may reach 1,000 per day or higher in England by the end of the year (and
    still be increasing at that point)."

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469342174345105415

    But by then it will have replaced Delta, so there will be no Delta hospitalisations coming through. We are currently coping with ~800 hospitalisations a day, so that doesn't sound like a disaster
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
    What we want is one from Shropshire N. I'm tempted to agree with those who think a national Labour revival will cost the LD's the seat.
    While all PBers and the bubble have heard the instruction from nowhere that the LDs are the challenger in NS even though Labour came second last time, is there any evidence that the voters are aware of this? What is wrong with the idea that Labour are value?

  • UK COVID summary

    - Cases up. Steady in the over 50s..
    - Admissions up, in the 18-84 range. 85+ rather flat (England only data)
    - Deaths have stopped falling - looks to have flattened out.

    If there was a near fully loaded A320 crashing somewhere in the UK every day of the week, and the crashes were largely avoidable if advice had been properly followed, would they be so sanguine about it? No.

    Would they still do nothing to take on those responsible for the cause of most of the crashes? No.

    So why aren't they taking on the vaccine refuseniks?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,659
    Wasn't there supposed to be a Cummings presser today? Was it a soggy squib?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    Scott_xP said:

    Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty.

    No, they expected the management team to be there.
    I am planning on all the Christmas parties being cancelled and everyone working from home. Then I and my crack team of socially diverse ex-terrorists will break into the Bank of England and steal all the gold.

    A highly trained sniper team will kill anyone not wearing a shirt or barefoot anywhere near the operation, of course.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Fuel crisis in 2000?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    The superspreaders in primary schools was part of the plan. It must have been. We know the covid risk to the very young is extremely low (so much so that the vaccine is possibly worse), and presumably a wave passing through primaries this term will have been modelled. It gets a lot of cases out of the way before the winter, and delivers protection for the children. Hence why there've been only token restrictions in primary schools that experience cases.

    Of course, the government can't say as much openly.
    It's simply not true to say the vaccine risk - for young kids - is worse.

    Part of the problem is that estimates of the danger of each were predicated on the disease having largely disappeared, and therefore the certainty of a very small chance (i.e. getting the vaccine) was being compared to a small chance of getting the disease times by a larger chance of the disease killing (or hospitalising) you.

    With Covid rampant in schools, the numbers change.

    And a surprisingly large number of children have died (or been hospitalisaed) in the UK from Covid, and that's despite not everyone having caught the disease.

    I think the US has this right: vaccinated down to five.
    Totally agree with this. The dithering and ambivalence of the JVCI on this was bizarre. The comparative risk and reward were not even in the same order of magnitude. Whilst it was true the benefit was more modest than for older cohorts the health benefit was clear, let alone the reduction in the disruption of education.

    I fear, once again, a significant number on that committee were of the view that these jabs should be going into third world arms rather than ours. Just as they seemed to think about the boosters. Its a morally justifiable point of view but it is not their job. The Saj was absolutely right to give them a lot less leeway this time around.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Declared Tory rebels on next week's Covid hits 55 – the same number of MPs necessary to trigger a vote of confidence in Boris Johnson

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-the-plan-b-tory-rebels
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    The superspreaders in primary schools was part of the plan. It must have been. We know the covid risk to the very young is extremely low (so much so that the vaccine is possibly worse), and presumably a wave passing through primaries this term will have been modelled. It gets a lot of cases out of the way before the winter, and delivers protection for the children. Hence why there've been only token restrictions in primary schools that experience cases.

    Of course, the government can't say as much openly.
    It's simply not true to say the vaccine risk - for young kids - is worse.

    Part of the problem is that estimates of the danger of each were predicated on the disease having largely disappeared, and therefore the certainty of a very small chance (i.e. getting the vaccine) was being compared to a small chance of getting the disease times by a larger chance of the disease killing (or hospitalising) you.

    With Covid rampant in schools, the numbers change.

    And a surprisingly large number of children have died (or been hospitalisaed) in the UK from Covid, and that's despite not everyone having caught the disease.

    I think the US has this right: vaccinated down to five.
    The JCVI based their risk estimate on 5% of children getting COVID, or something equally ridiculous.
  • 1m a day by end of month corrected as 1m in total by end of month. Is that not about the current (and last few months) run rate anyway?
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
    What we want is one from Shropshire N. I'm tempted to agree with those who think a national Labour revival will cost the LD's the seat.
    I keep thinking that 50/1 Labour in NS is bonkers. Or is it me that's bonkers?
    Labour are still putting quite a bit of effort into the seat, judging from the volume of e-mails I'm receiving on where to campaign.

    But I still think Labour is unlikely to stay in double % figures, and that the LDs will win. People will vote for the party seen as best able to stick the final knife into Johnson.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989

    Yes, the buildings management but not a company – that's true.

    They expected Tanaka to be there
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021
    UK testing shows booster 75% effective against symptomatic O-Mike-Ron.

    Hmmm, but...

    Vaccine protection against mild symptomatic disease from Omicron may be substantially reduced, new data suggests.

    The UK Health Security Agency says there is evidence that boosters show good effectiveness, "although with some reduction compared to Delta".
  • Wasn't there supposed to be a Cummings presser today? Was it a soggy squib?

    Perhaps he is waiting on the builders to get the room ready with fifty 70inch TVs to show his mastery of the universe?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
    I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position

    This is unsustainable

    And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    1m a day by end of month corrected as 1m in total by end of month. Is that not about the current (and last few months) run rate anyway?

    Yes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    edited December 2021
    By way of light relief on a gloomy afternoon.

    JUST IN: Trump accuses Netanyahu of disloyalty: "F--k him"
    https://twitter.com/axios/status/1469171153130254339

    At least he knows who his friends are...
    The former president was fixated on the fact that while the likes of Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and Russia's Vladimir Putin held off — “they felt the election was rigged," Trump claimed — Netanyahu acknowledged Biden's win.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    UK testing shows booster 75% effective against symptomatic O-Mike-Ron.


    Excellent.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    edited December 2021
    Just to note that today's case number exceeds that for 17th July, so we need to reappraise who is closest to estimating the date of the peak of the current wave!
  • IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    It probably happens quite often when there's a sizeable gap (as here) between polls.

    Labour dropped 8% between two Find Out Now polls this year, taken on 2 Feb and 13-15 May respectively, for example.
  • UK testing shows booster 75% effective against symptomatic O-Mike-Ron.

    Hmmm, but...

    Vaccine protection against mild symptomatic disease from Omicron may be substantially reduced, new data suggests.

    The UK Health Security Agency says there is evidence that boosters show good effectiveness, "although with some reduction compared to Delta".

    Do you have a link?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    algarkirk said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
    What we want is one from Shropshire N. I'm tempted to agree with those who think a national Labour revival will cost the LD's the seat.
    While all PBers and the bubble have heard the instruction from nowhere that the LDs are the challenger in NS even though Labour came second last time, is there any evidence that the voters are aware of this?
    As I've said before, it looks like a rerun of the Witney by-election to me, where a LibDem carpet-bombing leaflet campaign made everyone very aware that they were the challengers - to the extent that one pub even put an A-board outside with "Liz Leffman [LD candidate] - no more leaflets please!" chalked on it.

    Of course, the LibDems didn't win Witney. They came a respectable second, and their candidate is now leader of Oxfordshire County Council after 20+ years of Conservative rule.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
    I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position

    This is unsustainable

    And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
    On the contrary, the downward slide is sustainable for some time yet.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Adam Bolton - What do you think of Boris Johnson's leadership?

    Charlie Sansom(former chair South Basildon Tories) - It's calamitous... the pandemic has really shown how inept he is...
    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1469269229379760136/video/1
This discussion has been closed.