Regarding lockdown prospects, some hawks are probably looking at 4 Jan to 30 Jan and hoping the public will wear it. January without pubs and schools would be miserable AF. But the thinking will be that it's an effing miserable month anyway, where consumer spending is low.
Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?
When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?
Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position
This is unsustainable
And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
We will see. I would be wary of doing anything too hasty but if there is clear evidence Boris was at one of these No 10 parties then his position would be untenable.
Then there is no alternative but Sunak, he is the only potential candidate to replace Boris who could get any sort of significant bounce back v Starmer in the polls
Regarding the effects of repeated lockdowns on young children.
I know I am going to be accused of being callous here but I can't help thinking of my Mum, who was born in 1937 in Islington (when it was a slum).
By the time she was nine she had been evacuated (twice) to live with strangers, bombed out, been to six(!) different, or should I say indifferent, schools, lived on poverty rations, next to no posessions, hand-me-down clothes, etc. etc.
She and her cohort who had suffered similarly all survived and most became functioning adults, parents, grandparents etc.
Were kids tougher then?
You have absolutely no way of knowing that "her cohort...all survived, nor of what their lives were like for the ones that did. I mean, how could you? There is for starters a ton of evidence of serious abuse of evacuee children
He did say 'survive' and 'most'.
Depending what you mean by cohort. I would have no way in the world of knowing whether every child my respective parents had ever met by the age of 7 was still alive at 16, nor, of the ones that did, whether they really functioned or just faked it
Well I did think it might be contentious and for what it's worth my Mum survived but (imo) was damaged by her experiences. I accept it is a long way short of ideal for today's children.
Much better if we could contain the virus, avoid both the deaths and the lockdowns.
Which is why my preferred solution is make like very difficult for the unvaccinated.
Wildly O/t but clearing my in box I found this from Quora (which I find hilarious every so often)
'Why do the British use the odd noble title "earl" in contrast with the rest of Europe, being forced to borrow words such as "countess" and "county"?
Why do the British use the odd noble title "earl" in contrast with the rest of Europe, being forced to borrow words such as "countess" and "county"? Is it wrong to refer to a British earl as “count”?
Because the Norman French spelling of the word ‘count’ was ‘cunte’.
For some reason, the English found it hilarious when their new French overlords tried to describe themselves as cuntes, and the Normans quickly took to using the English title instead'
UK testing shows booster 75% effective against symptomatic O-Mike-Ron.
Hmmm, but...
Vaccine protection against mild symptomatic disease from Omicron may be substantially reduced, new data suggests.
The UK Health Security Agency says there is evidence that boosters show good effectiveness, "although with some reduction compared to Delta".
Do you have a link?
It showed a dramatic drop in effectiveness for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine and a significant drop off for two doses of Pfizer. However, the third dose increased the protection against getting Covid symptoms to between 70 and 75%.
The UKHSA estimates that more than half of all cases in the country will be Omicron by the mid-December and that if that growth continues unabated there will be more than one million infections by the end of the month.
Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?
Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
What we want is one from Shropshire N. I'm tempted to agree with those who think a national Labour revival will cost the LD's the seat.
I keep thinking that 50/1 Labour in NS is bonkers. Or is it me that's bonkers?
Labour are still putting quite a bit of effort into the seat, judging from the volume of e-mails I'm receiving on where to campaign.
But I still think Labour is unlikely to stay in double % figures, and that the LDs will win. People will vote for the party seen as best able to stick the final knife into Johnson.
Obviously I'm not saying Labour will win but a 2% chance? If the Tory vote collapses heavily who is to say that the switchers will necessarily move mainly to the LDs?
My gut feeling is that 10/1 would be more like it, making it a good-value loser, probably.
I still think my earlier suggestion of a bet on Tories finishing 3rd or lower is a good one, but I see no market offering this.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
I think he might go for the full lockdown.
The only issue is furlough,
If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?
Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.
Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.
August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.
A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN
No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman
But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.
It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
Buy time for what?
We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.
What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?
There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
The superspreaders in primary schools was part of the plan. It must have been. We know the covid risk to the very young is extremely low (so much so that the vaccine is possibly worse), and presumably a wave passing through primaries this term will have been modelled. It gets a lot of cases out of the way before the winter, and delivers protection for the children. Hence why there've been only token restrictions in primary schools that experience cases.
Of course, the government can't say as much openly.
It's simply not true to say the vaccine risk - for young kids - is worse.
Part of the problem is that estimates of the danger of each were predicated on the disease having largely disappeared, and therefore the certainty of a very small chance (i.e. getting the vaccine) was being compared to a small chance of getting the disease times by a larger chance of the disease killing (or hospitalising) you.
With Covid rampant in schools, the numbers change.
And a surprisingly large number of children have died (or been hospitalisaed) in the UK from Covid, and that's despite not everyone having caught the disease.
I think the US has this right: vaccinated down to five.
I said "possibly worse", but fair points. Anyway, too late to change that now, in all probability and given that that's finite capacity to deliver vaccinations, priority needs to go to boosters for now (plus any 1st / 2nd dose requests still coming forward).
Wildly O/t but clearing my in box I found this from Quora (which I find hilarious every so often)
'Why do the British use the odd noble title "earl" in contrast with the rest of Europe, being forced to borrow words such as "countess" and "county"?
Why do the British use the odd noble title "earl" in contrast with the rest of Europe, being forced to borrow words such as "countess" and "county"? Is it wrong to refer to a British earl as “count”?
Because the Norman French spelling of the word ‘count’ was ‘cunte’.
For some reason, the English found it hilarious when their new French overlords tried to describe themselves as cuntes, and the Normans quickly took to using the English title instead'
Perhaps when Johnson and Cummings go the House of Lords we could revert to the use of Count?
UK testing shows booster 75% effective against symptomatic O-Mike-Ron.
Hmmm, but...
Vaccine protection against mild symptomatic disease from Omicron may be substantially reduced, new data suggests.
The UK Health Security Agency says there is evidence that boosters show good effectiveness, "although with some reduction compared to Delta".
That sounds ok news. Risk of getting sick one quarter of what it would otherwise be.
Please watch the SA video I put the link up earlier, they have done laboratory studies and have real world results that show that a 2 x vaccinations provides excellent protection against illness.
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Just to note that today's case number exceeds that for 17th July, so we need to reappraise who is closest to estimating the date of the peak of the current wave!
If most like him do so there will be more rather than less people wanting to go to these places because they will become far safer venues, free of the unvaccinated most likely to infect us. And it will be a lot easier to get tickets for the Wolves as all the anti-vaxxers put their season ticket seats up for resale.
He is a even more of an idiot though, because he seems to be unaware that all he has to do to continue as an anti-vaxxer and get around this is to take a lateral flow test each time.
Apart from it wont just be the unvaccinated that boycott. My local pubs have been left in no doubt they ever ask me for a vaxport or to sign in then they can forget ever having my business ever again. Same with the restaurants I frequent.
It is time frankly for civil disobedience to these measures and from what I have seen at least in my town people are pretty much ignoring it. In fact we had a company wide call this morning where the CEO said we are not putting out an announcement you must all work from home. The offices will be open and if you want to go in you can, if you prefer to work from home you can
While you're at it, make a note not to go to Portugal on holiday ever again then. When I went there in September for my son's wedding, in a part of Portugal not normally frequented by Brits, every restaurant and cafe was as required by law asking for a vaccine passport if you wanted a seat inside. And it was pretty difficult finding one that wasn't full at normally busy times.
Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?
Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
What we want is one from Shropshire N. I'm tempted to agree with those who think a national Labour revival will cost the LD's the seat.
I keep thinking that 50/1 Labour in NS is bonkers. Or is it me that's bonkers?
Labour are still putting quite a bit of effort into the seat, judging from the volume of e-mails I'm receiving on where to campaign.
But I still think Labour is unlikely to stay in double % figures, and that the LDs will win. People will vote for the party seen as best able to stick the final knife into Johnson.
Obviously I'm not saying Labour will win but a 2% chance? If the Tory vote collapses heavily who is to say that the switchers will necessarily move mainly to the LDs?
My gut feeling is that 10/1 would be more like it, making it a good-value loser, probably.
I still think my earlier suggestion of a bet on Tories finishing 3rd or lower is a good one, but I see no market offering this.
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
- Cases up. Steady in the over 50s.. - Admissions up, in the 18-84 range. 85+ rather flat (England only data) - Deaths have stopped falling - looks to have flattened out.
If there was a near fully loaded A320 crashing somewhere in the UK every day of the week, and the crashes were largely avoidable if advice had been properly followed, would they be so sanguine about it? No.
Would they still do nothing to take on those responsible for the cause of most of the crashes? No.
So why aren't they taking on the vaccine refuseniks?
Because that would involve "punching down". AKA telling members of a minority group they are fucking stupid.
Look at the various stories about low uptake in ethnic groups. Notice that they never actually describe the detail of the stories/reasons why people are not taking the vaccine. It's "rumours", "distrust".
This is because they are nearly universally conspiracy theory bilge which makes the person saying it sound really really stupid. Some of it is vile racist conspiracy theory bilge, of course.
Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?
When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?
Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position
This is unsustainable
And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
On the contrary, the downward slide is sustainable for some time yet.
I agree but it is over 2 years to the next GE
And for clarification I meant @HYUFD and I would be in the same place
I've always considered it a Christmas classic and my all time favourite Christmas movie (well the remake starring Richard Attenborough).
But according to TSE I'm guessing this is no longer to be classed as a Christmas movie as it was released in May. Or is May OK, but July is off limits?
Wowsers. You trying to get banned again? Why on earth are you trying to pick a fight over something utterly irrelevant?
Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?
Tories at 33/34 in all the last 4 polls now. Opinium to come.
What we want is one from Shropshire N. I'm tempted to agree with those who think a national Labour revival will cost the LD's the seat.
I keep thinking that 50/1 Labour in NS is bonkers. Or is it me that's bonkers?
Labour are still putting quite a bit of effort into the seat, judging from the volume of e-mails I'm receiving on where to campaign.
But I still think Labour is unlikely to stay in double % figures, and that the LDs will win. People will vote for the party seen as best able to stick the final knife into Johnson.
Obviously I'm not saying Labour will win but a 2% chance? If the Tory vote collapses heavily who is to say that the switchers will necessarily move mainly to the LDs?
My gut feeling is that 10/1 would be more like it, making it a good-value loser, probably.
I still think my earlier suggestion of a bet on Tories finishing 3rd or lower is a good one, but I see no market offering this.
Lab are 150 offered on betfair.
Don't touch Betfair, but for those that do, it's a gift.
Seattle Times ($) ODDS & ENDS (part of summary of stories from around the globe)
IT'S A GIRL: Boris Johnson, 57 and his wife, Carrie Johnson, 33, announced on Thursday the birth of a daughter, their second child since he became prime minister. The couple have a son, Wilfred, born in April 2020.
The news came the same day it was announced that the Conservative Party broke electoral rules over extensive renovations to the Johnson family's official flat at Downing Street, resulting in a fine of about $23,000 from Britain's political spending watchdog. The Electoral Commission ruled the funds to pay for the refurbishment of the prime ministers's four-bedroom apartment at 11 Downing Street were not properly disclosed.
SSI - I post this in it's entirety, to give you a feel for how the casual newspaper reader in the USA is viewing the situation in Whitehall at the moment.
Also interesting that this is the FIRST yours truly has heard about the Johnson's having a little girl! Welcome to her, and congratulations to her parents. Regardless of what else is swirling around Downing Street, hope they are enjoying their new Christmas gift!
Wildly O/t but clearing my in box I found this from Quora (which I find hilarious every so often)
'Why do the British use the odd noble title "earl" in contrast with the rest of Europe, being forced to borrow words such as "countess" and "county"?
Why do the British use the odd noble title "earl" in contrast with the rest of Europe, being forced to borrow words such as "countess" and "county"? Is it wrong to refer to a British earl as “count”?
Because the Norman French spelling of the word ‘count’ was ‘cunte’.
For some reason, the English found it hilarious when their new French overlords tried to describe themselves as cuntes, and the Normans quickly took to using the English title instead'
Perhaps when Johnson and Cummings go the House of Lords we could revert to the use of Count?
They'd make a right pair of Counts, and no mistake.
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
This is why the timing is so unfortunate. Were it not for Xmas, it may well be advisable to minimise social interaction until such a time as all those who are double jabbed have had a booster. However, both the government and the opposition are fearful that jeopardising Xmas, again, wouldn't go down well with the punters. The price will be more deaths than if everybody eligible had been boosted.
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
If most like him do so there will be more rather than less people wanting to go to these places because they will become far safer venues, free of the unvaccinated most likely to infect us. And it will be a lot easier to get tickets for the Wolves as all the anti-vaxxers put their season ticket seats up for resale.
He is a even more of an idiot though, because he seems to be unaware that all he has to do to continue as an anti-vaxxer and get around this is to take a lateral flow test each time.
Apart from it wont just be the unvaccinated that boycott. My local pubs have been left in no doubt they ever ask me for a vaxport or to sign in then they can forget ever having my business ever again. Same with the restaurants I frequent.
It is time frankly for civil disobedience to these measures and from what I have seen at least in my town people are pretty much ignoring it. In fact we had a company wide call this morning where the CEO said we are not putting out an announcement you must all work from home. The offices will be open and if you want to go in you can, if you prefer to work from home you can
While you're at it, make a note not to go to Portugal on holiday ever again then. When I went there in September for my son's wedding, in a part of Portugal not normally frequented by Brits, every restaurant and cafe was as required by law asking for a vaccine passport if you wanted a seat inside. And it was pretty difficult finding one that wasn't full at normally busy times.
Went to portugal once hated the place didn't plan on going back anyway. However that is a foreign land with different laws. When in foreign parts I tend to obey laws even when I think them ridiculous because I am there for brief periods and not my place to question how they run things.
Here in the uk that is very much my place and civil disobedience to crack pot laws in something we should all have both a responsibility and duty to perform.
Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?
When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?
Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position
This is unsustainable
And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
And my SNP VI disappears, and I will reconsider who I should vote for next GE. It won't be Duguid, but I could switch back to Lib Dem. Inept as Duguid is, I don't feel the burning motivation to vote SNP just to get rid of him if a sensible person is in Downing Street. It would be really nice to have a calm look at the policy platforms of the different parties without a big fucking Boris klaxon going off in my head all the time. I really do think it's best for Britain that he goes, yesterday if possible.
Well, the SNP is at least voting against the Borders bill if that helps. No idea what the LDs are doing, mind.
Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty.
No, they expected the management team to be there.
I am planning on all the Christmas parties being cancelled and everyone working from home. Then I and my crack team of socially diverse ex-terrorists will break into the Bank of England and steal all the gold.
A highly trained sniper team will kill anyone not wearing a shirt or barefoot anywhere near the operation, of course.
I think you will find that Gordon sold all the gold a long time ago. Of course if you want to steal some of the IOUs knock yourself out.
On a rather bleak day, there is at least the consolation that the preening, arrogant, self-aggrandising little prick of a French president might get beaten after one term. That would be fun
Just to note that today's case number exceeds that for 17th July, so we need to reappraise who is closest to estimating the date of the peak of the current wave!
The vaccine efficacy data suggests that people who have had two doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab 25 or more weeks ago have far lower protection against symptomatic infection with Omicron than Delta. While the data suggests about 40% protection against Delta at this time point, it suggests protection from Omicron could be less than 10%. Although there is a great deal of uncertainty around that figure, given the small number of people studied and the fact that the Oxford/AstraZencea jabs was largely given to older or more vulnerable people.
Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty.
No, they expected the management team to be there.
I am planning on all the Christmas parties being cancelled and everyone working from home. Then I and my crack team of socially diverse ex-terrorists will break into the Bank of England and steal all the gold.
A highly trained sniper team will kill anyone not wearing a shirt or barefoot anywhere near the operation, of course.
I think you will find that Gordon sold all the gold a long time ago. Of course if you want to steal some of the IOUs knock yourself out.
Shit. Oh hell, let's just do what we always do. Hijack some nuclear weapons and hold the world hostage.
Is there a health service ANYWHERE that is over-staffed?
Not sure about that, though in Switzerland on the rare occasions when I had anything to be treated to waiting list seemed to be zero. In the UK in the late 2000s we got it down to max 18 weeks for everything, 2 weeks for anything urgent and 4 hours for A&E, and that seemed pretty reasonable - I remember thinking that we didn't need to improve further apart from certain specialities and should turn to other priorities.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
I think he might go for the full lockdown.
The only issue is furlough,
If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?
Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.
Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.
August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.
A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN
No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman
But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.
It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
Buy time for what?
We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.
What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?
There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
You can't penalise the unvaccinated.
Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.
Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
Treat it like smoking.
You want to smoke? Well you can't come in here. You want to remain unvaccinated?... Well you can't come in here either.
As Dr Chris Martenson pointed out, from the viewpoint of governments who are distracting people by a virus, a divide and rule vaccine-only strategy is going brilliantly well. Forget public health policy. Hire psychologists to terrify people for 20 months.
Brilliant ... you can then sell ~£30 bn worth of jabs and use the constant panic & fear to move towards a police state like China complete with digital IDs, central bank digital currency, social credit system. People will probably be microchipped too, says the WEF, with which the UK has a 'partnership'.
The COVID vaccines have failed to demonstrate benefits as anyone with a biosciences degree could have predicted; I probably did, can't recall. Coronavirus vaccines haven't made much progress in 30 yrs, these are no different (well except that 4-5 of them are gene therapy rather than inactivated or dead viruses).
All-cause mortality was slightly higher in the Pfizer experimental group than the control group. Why the f*** would you take something that makes you more likely to die? Go on, tell me.
50,000 vaccine deaths in the USA & EU so far. UK (MHRA) says 2,000 deaths but reporting has been sporadic, unlike VAERS and Eudravigilance. Probably the same, pro rata, as the USA and EU.
The relatives of the deceased and injured believed the phrase 'safe and effective', and yet if they come to ask for compensation for death or permanent disability they'll discover that the jab producers have no liability. If you don't believe this, ask your MP.
Also it's possible that products only covered by the emergency authorisation don't have to declare all the ingredients. Why the f*** would you inject something into your arm that has secret ingredients?
On a rather bleak day, there is at least the consolation that the preening, arrogant, self-aggrandising little prick of a French president might get beaten after one term. That would be fun
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
So, I guess we can see where this is heading. Lockdown in January until everyone has had booster.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
I guess we won't have the numbers for severe disease for another 2-3 weeks but that is what is important. Assume they will be much better still.
Lockdown for everyone who hasn't had two doses and a booster?
Seems like a massive overreaction as well as discriminatory on age. Would be strongly against that, even if the science called for it (then should be lockdown for everyone). Not seen anything in the science that clearly justifies a lockdown yet. Perhaps it will come as we learn more, but it should be a last resort.
So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.
The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.
1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.
2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.
(There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)
If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
I think he might go for the full lockdown.
The only issue is furlough,
If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?
Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.
Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.
August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.
A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN
No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman
But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.
It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
Buy time for what?
We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.
What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?
There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
You can't penalise the unvaccinated.
Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.
Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
Treat it like smoking.
You want to smoke? Well you can't come in here. You want to remain unvaccinated?... Well you can't come in here either.
As Dr Chris Martenson pointed out, from the viewpoint of governments who are distracting people by a virus, a divide and rule vaccine-only strategy is going brilliantly well. Forget public health policy. Hire psychologists to terrify people for 20 months.
Brilliant ... you can then sell ~£30 bn worth of jabs and use the constant panic & fear to move towards a police state like China complete with digital IDs, central bank digital currency, social credit system. People will probably be microchipped too, says the WEF, with which the UK has a 'partnership'.
The COVID vaccines have failed to demonstrate benefits as anyone with a biosciences degree could have predicted; I probably did, can't recall. Coronavirus vaccines haven't made much progress in 30 yrs, these are no different (well except that 4-5 of them are gene therapy rather than inactivated or dead viruses).
All-cause mortality was slightly higher in the Pfizer experimental group than the control group. Why the f*** would you take something that makes you more likely to die? Go on, tell me.
50,000 vaccine deaths in the USA & EU so far. UK (MHRA) says 2,000 deaths but reporting has been sporadic, unlike VAERS and Eudravigilance. Probably the same, pro rata, as the USA and EU.
The relatives of the deceased and injured believed the phrase 'safe and effective', and yet if they come to ask for compensation for death or permanent disability they'll discover that the jab producers have no liability. If you don't believe this, ask your MP.
Also it's possible that products only covered by the emergency authorisation don't have to declare all the ingredients. Why the f*** would you inject something into your arm that has secret ingredients?
If most like him do so there will be more rather than less people wanting to go to these places because they will become far safer venues, free of the unvaccinated most likely to infect us. And it will be a lot easier to get tickets for the Wolves as all the anti-vaxxers put their season ticket seats up for resale.
He is a even more of an idiot though, because he seems to be unaware that all he has to do to continue as an anti-vaxxer and get around this is to take a lateral flow test each time.
Apart from it wont just be the unvaccinated that boycott. My local pubs have been left in no doubt they ever ask me for a vaxport or to sign in then they can forget ever having my business ever again. Same with the restaurants I frequent.
It is time frankly for civil disobedience to these measures and from what I have seen at least in my town people are pretty much ignoring it. In fact we had a company wide call this morning where the CEO said we are not putting out an announcement you must all work from home. The offices will be open and if you want to go in you can, if you prefer to work from home you can
While you're at it, make a note not to go to Portugal on holiday ever again then. When I went there in September for my son's wedding, in a part of Portugal not normally frequented by Brits, every restaurant and cafe was as required by law asking for a vaccine passport if you wanted a seat inside. And it was pretty difficult finding one that wasn't full at normally busy times.
Went to portugal once hated the place didn't plan on going back anyway. However that is a foreign land with different laws. When in foreign parts I tend to obey laws even when I think them ridiculous because I am there for brief periods and not my place to question how they run things.
Here in the uk that is very much my place and civil disobedience to crack pot laws in something we should all have both a responsibility and duty to perform.
They are running things very well, doing the very sensible things that their government is asking of them and as a consequence coping better than just about any other country in Europe. Lovely country, lovely people and I'm very glad my son married a Portuguese girl. Admittedly, I was well away from the Algarve and the bits dominated by Brits which might have been spoiled a bit, I haven't been to the Algarve for two decades.
Humble suggestion for managing the Fund for Misfortunate Punters and Indigent (and Indignant) Psephologists:
Invest the massive sums now in this account (I'm sure) in "sure thing" bets spotted by PB's world-class experts in this field of endeavor. Then dole out the winnings to the less-undeserving among us, whose prognostications have NOT been as astute (or conniving)?
Skim off a bit of the lucre for PB investigations & jollifications - such as the proposed PB By-Election Bottle Bus - and forward the rest to yours truly. Will make sure it's spent well if not wisely!
Raising a glass to Thommo sitting eating his pineapple pizza in his Bruce Willis themed Christmas jumper, bashing away at his keyboard to see if he can get banned twice inside 24 hours.
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
As I have said before, it is not just the really sick people and the dead who we need to worry about (tho these numbers MIGHT be frightening and even calamitous - or not)
We also need to worry about the many millions who will get just sick enough to need a week in bed. Something like flu.
Because OMICRON THE BASTARD is so infectious it will take down almost everyone with some kind of infection over this winter. Breaking through boosters here, reinfecting prior sufferers there
If 30 million Brits are suddenly unable to do their work, for a week or two, WTF happens then? Has such a thing ever occurred before? Who drives the trains and buses? Who delivers the milk and bread? Who, and I say this with a genuine tremble in my throat, WHO KNAPS THE OBSIDIAN BUTT-PLUGS?
Raising a glass to Thommo sitting eating his pineapple pizza in his Bruce Willis themed Christmas jumper, bashing away at his keyboard to see if he can get banned twice inside 24 hours.
If most like him do so there will be more rather than less people wanting to go to these places because they will become far safer venues, free of the unvaccinated most likely to infect us. And it will be a lot easier to get tickets for the Wolves as all the anti-vaxxers put their season ticket seats up for resale.
He is a even more of an idiot though, because he seems to be unaware that all he has to do to continue as an anti-vaxxer and get around this is to take a lateral flow test each time.
Apart from it wont just be the unvaccinated that boycott. My local pubs have been left in no doubt they ever ask me for a vaxport or to sign in then they can forget ever having my business ever again. Same with the restaurants I frequent.
It is time frankly for civil disobedience to these measures and from what I have seen at least in my town people are pretty much ignoring it. In fact we had a company wide call this morning where the CEO said we are not putting out an announcement you must all work from home. The offices will be open and if you want to go in you can, if you prefer to work from home you can
While you're at it, make a note not to go to Portugal on holiday ever again then. When I went there in September for my son's wedding, in a part of Portugal not normally frequented by Brits, every restaurant and cafe was as required by law asking for a vaccine passport if you wanted a seat inside. And it was pretty difficult finding one that wasn't full at normally busy times.
Went to portugal once hated the place didn't plan on going back anyway. However that is a foreign land with different laws. When in foreign parts I tend to obey laws even when I think them ridiculous because I am there for brief periods and not my place to question how they run things.
Here in the uk that is very much my place and civil disobedience to crack pot laws in something we should all have both a responsibility and duty to perform.
They are running things very well, doing the very sensible things that their government is asking of them and as a consequence coping better than just about any other country in Europe. Lovely country, lovely people and I'm very glad my son married a Portuguese girl. Admittedly, I was well away from the Algarve and the bits dominated by Brits which might have been spoiled a bit, I haven't been to the Algarve for two decades.
And portugese case rates are now at the equivalent of 30k with the equivalent of 150 deaths per day and rising despite being good little children and doing as they are told.
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
As I have said before, it is not just the really sick people and the dead who we need to worry about (tho these numbers MIGHT be frightening and even calamitous - or not)
We also need to worry about the many millions who will get just sick enough to need a week in bed. Something like flu.
Because OMICRON THE BASTARD is so infectious it will take down almost everyone with some kind of infection over this winter. Breaking through boosters here, reinfecting prior sufferers there
If 30 million Brits are suddenly unable to do their work, for a week or two, WTF happens then? Has such a thing ever occurred before? Who drives the trains and buses? Who delivers the milk and bread? Who, and I say this with a genuine tremble in my throat, WHO KNAPS THE OBSIDIAN BUTT-PLUGS?
My kid’s class all had to write in the big class book this week, “people that help us”. There were the usual doctors, nurses, mummy and daddy and what not. He wrote “the milkman”. Dunno whether to be concerned about that…
Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview
He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"
"We absolutely need to keep everything under review"
Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.
If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.
Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.
Christmas party just got cancelled, one hour before it was due to begin.
I wish they'd stop prevaricating and either:
- full lockdown now - full lockdown boxing day
OTOH, Edinburgh is buzzing tonight, so my emergency shadow party should be fun
Are there Christmas markets this year? The ones normally by Waverley I mean.
Yup. I do not like them. Trash the gardens.
Yes, they used to be oin a much smaller scale - on the paved areas IIRC. One coiuld have a bratwurst with a clear conscience. Now the gardens are just the occasional green intervals between increasingly expansive and intrusive commercial shite. If they weren't so hilly there'd be no green visible sometimes!
Is there a health service ANYWHERE that is over-staffed?
Not sure about that, though in Switzerland on the rare occasions when I had anything to be treated to waiting list seemed to be zero. In the UK in the late 2000s we got it down to max 18 weeks for everything, 2 weeks for anything urgent and 4 hours for A&E, and that seemed pretty reasonable - I remember thinking that we didn't need to improve further apart from certain specialities and should turn to other priorities.
As an aside, I note that Switzerland had peak Pandemic figures today, and is now officially considering a hard lockdown on December 14th
Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty.
No, they expected the management team to be there.
I am planning on all the Christmas parties being cancelled and everyone working from home. Then I and my crack team of socially diverse ex-terrorists will break into the Bank of England and steal all the gold.
A highly trained sniper team will kill anyone not wearing a shirt or barefoot anywhere near the operation, of course.
I think you will find that Gordon sold all the gold a long time ago. Of course if you want to steal some of the IOUs knock yourself out.
Shit. Oh hell, let's just do what we always do. Hijack some nuclear weapons and hold the world hostage.
As if the majority would care about what happened to central London. Take out the possibility of any future Labour government at the press of a button. And the Guardian.
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
As I have said before, it is not just the really sick people and the dead who we need to worry about (tho these numbers MIGHT be frightening and even calamitous - or not)
We also need to worry about the many millions who will get just sick enough to need a week in bed. Something like flu.
Because OMICRON THE BASTARD is so infectious it will take down almost everyone with some kind of infection over this winter. Breaking through boosters here, reinfecting prior sufferers there
If 30 million Brits are suddenly unable to do their work, for a week or two, WTF happens then? Has such a thing ever occurred before? Who drives the trains and buses? Who delivers the milk and bread? Who, and I say this with a genuine tremble in my throat, WHO KNAPS THE OBSIDIAN BUTT-PLUGS?
My kid’s class all had to write in the big class book this week, “people that help us”. There were the usual doctors, nurses, mummy and daddy and what not. He wrote “the milkman”. Dunno whether to be concerned about that…
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
As I have said before, it is not just the really sick people and the dead who we need to worry about (tho these numbers MIGHT be frightening and even calamitous - or not)
We also need to worry about the many millions who will get just sick enough to need a week in bed. Something like flu.
Because OMICRON THE BASTARD is so infectious it will take down almost everyone with some kind of infection over this winter. Breaking through boosters here, reinfecting prior sufferers there
If 30 million Brits are suddenly unable to do their work, for a week or two, WTF happens then? Has such a thing ever occurred before? Who drives the trains and buses? Who delivers the milk and bread? Who, and I say this with a genuine tremble in my throat, WHO KNAPS THE OBSIDIAN BUTT-PLUGS?
Talk us through this obsidian butt-plug thing will you!? You seem to be a consumer - how many daily? Are there many consumers? Where are they mostly made? Will there be a balance-of-trade impact?
There's an interesting demonstration of loyalty going on with Boris. He clearly has some from his cabinet.
May or Major would have been long gone. Sadly Thatcher was too. All in less dire circumstances.
I find that really hard to believe looking at him, and his cabinet. Esp after Sunak nodding along to Blackford at pmqs. The others you mention would have gone of their own accord because they knew the game was up. Anyway Thatcher had fought round 1 of a leadership challenge, May had come 5th in national elections. Those are serious political events, scandals are fluff until hard evidence is to hand.
Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty.
No, they expected the management team to be there.
I am planning on all the Christmas parties being cancelled and everyone working from home. Then I and my crack team of socially diverse ex-terrorists will break into the Bank of England and steal all the gold.
A highly trained sniper team will kill anyone not wearing a shirt or barefoot anywhere near the operation, of course.
I think you will find that Gordon sold all the gold a long time ago. Of course if you want to steal some of the IOUs knock yourself out.
Shit. Oh hell, let's just do what we always do. Hijack some nuclear weapons and hold the world hostage.
As if the majority would care about what happened to central London. Take out the possibility of any future Labour government at the press of a button. And the Guardian.
And Westminster. It would just fall down with a small suitcase nuke 2km away.
Is there a health service ANYWHERE that is over-staffed?
Not sure about that, though in Switzerland on the rare occasions when I had anything to be treated to waiting list seemed to be zero. In the UK in the late 2000s we got it down to max 18 weeks for everything, 2 weeks for anything urgent and 4 hours for A&E, and that seemed pretty reasonable - I remember thinking that we didn't need to improve further apart from certain specialities and should turn to other priorities.
As an aside, I note that Switzerland had peak Pandemic figures today, and is now officially considering a hard lockdown on December 14th
The lights of Europe blah de blah
Will we beat them to it?
If AZ VE is zero, then we are looking at ton of new cases soon.
Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview
He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"
"We absolutely need to keep everything under review"
Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.
If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.
Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.
Perhaps I am too cynical but I expect a lockdown simply because the government and cabinet will be far more comfortable talking about that than defending the PM. If it is a choice between 100 angry MPs in his own party or him apologising properly there can only be one answer.
"This may have sounded somewhat naïve in early 2020, but by now, I would have expected that anyone with an interest in covid-19 might have acquired some basic notions in infectious disease epidemiology. 1/"
Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview
He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"
"We absolutely need to keep everything under review"
Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.
If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.
Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.
Got to be about a 90% chance now of a new year lockdown.
Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty.
No, they expected the management team to be there.
I am planning on all the Christmas parties being cancelled and everyone working from home. Then I and my crack team of socially diverse ex-terrorists will break into the Bank of England and steal all the gold.
A highly trained sniper team will kill anyone not wearing a shirt or barefoot anywhere near the operation, of course.
I think you will find that Gordon sold all the gold a long time ago. Of course if you want to steal some of the IOUs knock yourself out.
Shit. Oh hell, let's just do what we always do. Hijack some nuclear weapons and hold the world hostage.
As if the majority would care about what happened to central London. Take out the possibility of any future Labour government at the press of a button. And the Guardian.
And Westminster. It would just fall down with a small suitcase nuke 2km away.
I might go as far as paying the inevitable parking tickets they will have incurred in central London, maybe even excuse the use of the bus lane, but that is my limit.
Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview
He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"
"We absolutely need to keep everything under review"
Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.
If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.
Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.
My biggest wish right now is that The Mirror publishes a photo of Gove at the Downing Street party sniffing some talc.
We’re now down into the 30 somethings for access to boosters. I remain confident this is a storm in a teacup. And if we don’t shake this authoritarian precautionary principle now we never will.
Is there a health service ANYWHERE that is over-staffed?
Not sure about that, though in Switzerland on the rare occasions when I had anything to be treated to waiting list seemed to be zero. In the UK in the late 2000s we got it down to max 18 weeks for everything, 2 weeks for anything urgent and 4 hours for A&E, and that seemed pretty reasonable - I remember thinking that we didn't need to improve further apart from certain specialities and should turn to other priorities.
As an aside, I note that Switzerland had peak Pandemic figures today, and is now officially considering a hard lockdown on December 14th
The lights of Europe blah de blah
Will we beat them to it?
If AZ VE is zero, then we are looking at ton of new cases soon.
That's efficacy against symptomatic infection, efficacy against severe disease will be a lot higher.
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
As I have said before, it is not just the really sick people and the dead who we need to worry about (tho these numbers MIGHT be frightening and even calamitous - or not)
We also need to worry about the many millions who will get just sick enough to need a week in bed. Something like flu.
Because OMICRON THE BASTARD is so infectious it will take down almost everyone with some kind of infection over this winter. Breaking through boosters here, reinfecting prior sufferers there
If 30 million Brits are suddenly unable to do their work, for a week or two, WTF happens then? Has such a thing ever occurred before? Who drives the trains and buses? Who delivers the milk and bread? Who, and I say this with a genuine tremble in my throat, WHO KNAPS THE OBSIDIAN BUTT-PLUGS?
I always assumed flint-knapping was a solitary occupation.
There's an interesting demonstration of loyalty going on with Boris. He clearly has some from his cabinet.
May or Major would have been long gone. Sadly Thatcher was too. All in less dire circumstances.
I find that really hard to believe looking at him, and his cabinet. Esp after Sunak nodding along to Blackford at pmqs. The others you mention would have gone of their own accord because they knew the game was up. Anyway Thatcher had fought round 1 of a leadership challenge, May had come 5th in national elections. Those are serious political events, scandals are fluff until hard evidence is to hand.
Boris is presiding over a political catastrophe of unmatched horror. None of the cabinet are publically sabre-rattling. Whatever else might be going on that's a very good demonstartion of loyalty (of course to the party too).
Perhaps I am too cynical but I expect a lockdown simply because the government and cabinet will be far more comfortable talking about that than defending the PM. If it is a choice between 100 angry MPs in his own party or him apologising properly there can only be one answer.
No, I think it's more the other way round. It's his central band of supporters (the usual-suspect Brexit nuts) who are now most restless about any further health measures.
Not so, because the only reason Rickman and his villainous team choose Christmas Eve is because they expect the building to be empty.
No, they expected the management team to be there.
I am planning on all the Christmas parties being cancelled and everyone working from home. Then I and my crack team of socially diverse ex-terrorists will break into the Bank of England and steal all the gold.
A highly trained sniper team will kill anyone not wearing a shirt or barefoot anywhere near the operation, of course.
I think you will find that Gordon sold all the gold a long time ago. Of course if you want to steal some of the IOUs knock yourself out.
Shit. Oh hell, let's just do what we always do. Hijack some nuclear weapons and hold the world hostage.
As if the majority would care about what happened to central London. Take out the possibility of any future Labour government at the press of a button. And the Guardian.
And Westminster. It would just fall down with a small suitcase nuke 2km away.
There is a joke in there about Glasgow/Birmingham/Swansea, radioactive zombies and would anyone notice. But I won't.....
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
As I have said before, it is not just the really sick people and the dead who we need to worry about (tho these numbers MIGHT be frightening and even calamitous - or not)
We also need to worry about the many millions who will get just sick enough to need a week in bed. Something like flu.
Because OMICRON THE BASTARD is so infectious it will take down almost everyone with some kind of infection over this winter. Breaking through boosters here, reinfecting prior sufferers there
If 30 million Brits are suddenly unable to do their work, for a week or two, WTF happens then? Has such a thing ever occurred before? Who drives the trains and buses? Who delivers the milk and bread? Who, and I say this with a genuine tremble in my throat, WHO KNAPS THE OBSIDIAN BUTT-PLUGS?
If the day after GE19 somebody would have written that two years later, Labour would be nearly 10 points ahead with Starmer as the most popular leader since Blair and BoJo as unpopular as Corbyn, you would have been laughed out of the room.
Christmas party just got cancelled, one hour before it was due to begin.
I wish they'd stop prevaricating and either:
- full lockdown now - full lockdown boxing day
OTOH, Edinburgh is buzzing tonight, so my emergency shadow party should be fun
Are there Christmas markets this year? The ones normally by Waverley I mean.
Yup. I do not like them. Trash the gardens.
Too cold in January to enjoy the gardens anyway. I vote yay to the Christmas markets. But now you've got me thinking, where isn't there a nice open square in Edinburgh they could do this in? Time to pull down the silly column and that cafe thing in St Andrews Square and pedestrianise it. Then we can fill it with stalls in December and not trash the hedges.
They did have a n. o. s. - right there next to the Royal Scottish Academy and the gardens, but they've overflowed it.
The Unionists would howl if you demolished the Dundas column.
Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview
He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"
"We absolutely need to keep everything under review"
Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.
If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.
Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.
Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview
He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"
"We absolutely need to keep everything under review"
Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.
If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.
Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.
"today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "
The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
Perhaps I am too cynical but I expect a lockdown simply because the government and cabinet will be far more comfortable talking about that than defending the PM. If it is a choice between 100 angry MPs in his own party or him apologising properly there can only be one answer.
No, I think it's more the other way round. It's his central band of supporters (the usual-suspect Brexit nuts) who are now most restless about any further health measures.
It is, but he has precisely zero loyalty to them or anyone else. He just wants to get through the next month with less talk about his lies. That is achieved with lockdown, then people will tune off politics for Xmas and NY anyway.
Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview
He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"
"We absolutely need to keep everything under review"
Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.
If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.
Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.
"today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "
The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
I guess Pfizer's share price is ticking up this evening?
On a rather bleak day, there is at least the consolation that the preening, arrogant, self-aggrandising little prick of a French president might get beaten after one term. That would be fun
He's an example of someone I got completely wrong. I was delighted by his sudden ascent and victory, and proud of the fact the commune where I have my holiday home voted resoundingly for him (and Le Pen came 5th in the first round, after Hamon). Since when he has turned out to be one of the most breathtakingly arrogant and narcissistic politicians around. The fact he named En Marche after his own initials should have been a clue.
Not completely ineffectual - he has got some things done - but I'm not a French citizen or taxpayer so it's the image on the world stage that matters and on that he's been tiresome.
But French presidents have always taken on certain airs and graces. One of my earliest political experiences was seeing President Mitterrand waft past on the Champs Elysees in his presidential car on Bastille day while the MIrage jets flew past overhead. He exuded a quiet, monarchical power.
There's an interesting demonstration of loyalty going on with Boris. He clearly has some from his cabinet.
May or Major would have been long gone. Sadly Thatcher was too. All in less dire circumstances.
I find that really hard to believe looking at him, and his cabinet. Esp after Sunak nodding along to Blackford at pmqs. The others you mention would have gone of their own accord because they knew the game was up. Anyway Thatcher had fought round 1 of a leadership challenge, May had come 5th in national elections. Those are serious political events, scandals are fluff until hard evidence is to hand.
Boris is presiding over a political catastrophe of unmatched horror. None of the cabinet are publically sabre-rattling. Whatever else might be going on that's a very good demonstartion of loyalty (of course to the party too).
Or, they are too clever for that and going to run on a ticket of ostensible ultra loyalty to the FLSOJ™ until the last possible moment, knowing how vital that is to securing the popular Boris vote in an election. A man may smile and smile and be a villain. And get busy on WhatsApp.
We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.
Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
As I have said before, it is not just the really sick people and the dead who we need to worry about (tho these numbers MIGHT be frightening and even calamitous - or not)
We also need to worry about the many millions who will get just sick enough to need a week in bed. Something like flu.
Because OMICRON THE BASTARD is so infectious it will take down almost everyone with some kind of infection over this winter. Breaking through boosters here, reinfecting prior sufferers there
If 30 million Brits are suddenly unable to do their work, for a week or two, WTF happens then? Has such a thing ever occurred before? Who drives the trains and buses? Who delivers the milk and bread? Who, and I say this with a genuine tremble in my throat, WHO KNAPS THE OBSIDIAN BUTT-PLUGS?
That's the style of pandemic that all the government's pandemic planning was targeted at. So as long as they have the pandemic plan still in a drawer somewhere, and didn't shred all the copies in a fit of rage during the first lockdown, then we'd still be well set to deal with that scenario.
All sorts of government agencies, and key infrastructure companies (think, National Grid, etc) will have done pandemic-preparedness exercises where they rehearsed how they would cope with staff being ill at high rates while keeping the key systems ticking over.
Comments
Then there is no alternative but Sunak, he is the only potential candidate to replace Boris who could get any sort of significant bounce back v Starmer in the polls
Much better if we could contain the virus, avoid both the deaths and the lockdowns.
Which is why my preferred solution is make like very difficult for the unvaccinated.
'Why do the British use the odd noble title "earl" in contrast with the rest of Europe, being forced to borrow words such as "countess" and "county"?
Why do the British use the odd noble title "earl" in contrast with the rest of Europe, being forced to borrow words such as "countess" and "county"? Is it wrong to refer to a British earl as “count”?
Because the Norman French spelling of the word ‘count’ was ‘cunte’.
For some reason, the English found it hilarious when their new French overlords tried to describe themselves as cuntes, and the Normans quickly took to using the English title instead'
The UKHSA estimates that more than half of all cases in the country will be Omicron by the mid-December and that if that growth continues unabated there will be more than one million infections by the end of the month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59615005
GET YOUR F##KING BOOSTER.....
My gut feeling is that 10/1 would be more like it, making it a good-value loser, probably.
I still think my earlier suggestion of a bet on Tories finishing 3rd or lower is a good one, but I see no market offering this.
https://twitter.com/BJPMarshall/status/1469348511825158152?s=20
Look at the various stories about low uptake in ethnic groups. Notice that they never actually describe the detail of the stories/reasons why people are not taking the vaccine. It's "rumours", "distrust".
This is because they are nearly universally conspiracy theory bilge which makes the person saying it sound really really stupid. Some of it is vile racist conspiracy theory bilge, of course.
And for clarification I meant @HYUFD and I would be in the same place
IT'S A GIRL: Boris Johnson, 57 and his wife, Carrie Johnson, 33, announced on Thursday the birth of a daughter, their second child since he became prime minister. The couple have a son, Wilfred, born in April 2020.
The news came the same day it was announced that the Conservative Party broke electoral rules over extensive renovations to the Johnson family's official flat at Downing Street, resulting in a fine of about $23,000 from Britain's political spending watchdog. The Electoral Commission ruled the funds to pay for the refurbishment of the prime ministers's four-bedroom apartment at 11 Downing Street were not properly disclosed.
SSI - I post this in it's entirety, to give you a feel for how the casual newspaper reader in the USA is viewing the situation in Whitehall at the moment.
Also interesting that this is the FIRST yours truly has heard about the Johnson's having a little girl! Welcome to her, and congratulations to her parents. Regardless of what else is swirling around Downing Street, hope they are enjoying their new Christmas gift!
Here in the uk that is very much my place and civil disobedience to crack pot laws in something we should all have both a responsibility and duty to perform.
I wish they'd stop prevaricating and either:
- full lockdown now
- full lockdown boxing day
Duguid presumably voted for that bill?
Brilliant ... you can then sell ~£30 bn worth of jabs and use the constant panic & fear to move towards a police state like China complete with digital IDs, central bank digital currency, social credit system. People will probably be microchipped too, says the WEF, with which the UK has a 'partnership'.
The COVID vaccines have failed to demonstrate benefits as anyone with a biosciences degree could have predicted; I probably did, can't recall. Coronavirus vaccines haven't made much progress in 30 yrs, these are no different (well except that 4-5 of them are gene therapy rather than inactivated or dead viruses).
All-cause mortality was slightly higher in the Pfizer experimental group than the control group. Why the f*** would you take something that makes you more likely to die? Go on, tell me.
50,000 vaccine deaths in the USA & EU so far. UK (MHRA) says 2,000 deaths but reporting has been sporadic, unlike VAERS and Eudravigilance. Probably the same, pro rata, as the USA and EU.
The relatives of the deceased and injured believed the phrase 'safe and effective', and yet if they come to ask for compensation for death or permanent disability they'll discover that the jab producers have no liability. If you don't believe this, ask your MP.
Also it's possible that products only covered by the emergency authorisation don't have to declare all the ingredients. Why the f*** would you inject something into your arm that has secret ingredients?
May or Major would have been long gone. Sadly Thatcher was too. All in less dire circumstances.
This is starting to look like one if those seminal, unrecoverable moments, like when Brown bottled the election for example.
Invest the massive sums now in this account (I'm sure) in "sure thing" bets spotted by PB's world-class experts in this field of endeavor. Then dole out the winnings to the less-undeserving among us, whose prognostications have NOT been as astute (or conniving)?
Skim off a bit of the lucre for PB investigations & jollifications - such as the proposed PB By-Election Bottle Bus - and forward the rest to yours truly. Will make sure it's spent well if not wisely!
You know what I meant though.
Geoff Norcott
@GeoffNorcott
· 4h
I wouldn’t vote Conservative again while Boris Johnson is still in charge.
We also need to worry about the many millions who will get just sick enough to need a week in bed. Something like flu.
Because OMICRON THE BASTARD is so infectious it will take down almost everyone with some kind of infection over this winter. Breaking through boosters here, reinfecting prior sufferers there
If 30 million Brits are suddenly unable to do their work, for a week or two, WTF happens then? Has such a thing ever occurred before? Who drives the trains and buses? Who delivers the milk and bread? Who, and I say this with a genuine tremble in my throat, WHO KNAPS THE OBSIDIAN BUTT-PLUGS?
Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky
Even more restrictions?
Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview
He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"
"We absolutely need to keep everything under review"
Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.
If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.
Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.
The lights of Europe blah de blah
Meaghan Kall: "2x AZ, VE is ZERO"
If AZ VE is zero, then we are looking at ton of new cases soon.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1469063480334561285?s=20
"This may have sounded somewhat naïve in early 2020, but by now, I would have expected that anyone with an interest in covid-19 might have acquired some basic notions in infectious disease epidemiology.
1/"
Does Sunak walk?
We’re now down into the 30 somethings for access to boosters. I remain confident this is a storm in a teacup. And if we don’t shake this authoritarian precautionary principle now we never will.
Is it more of an atelier setup?
Simply because of the enormous numbers of people who will get a Flu like illness, rendering them unable to work for a week or two
Repeat across Europe
The Unionists would howl if you demolished the Dundas column.
The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
Not completely ineffectual - he has got some things done - but I'm not a French citizen or taxpayer so it's the image on the world stage that matters and on that he's been tiresome.
But French presidents have always taken on certain airs and graces. One of my earliest political experiences was seeing President Mitterrand waft past on the Champs Elysees in his presidential car on Bastille day while the MIrage jets flew past overhead. He exuded a quiet, monarchical power.
Does BoJo have anyone good advising him?
All sorts of government agencies, and key infrastructure companies (think, National Grid, etc) will have done pandemic-preparedness exercises where they rehearsed how they would cope with staff being ill at high rates while keeping the key systems ticking over.