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You obviously know little about Khan and who he has called friends in the past.Danny565 said:
But (much as I hate to admit it) there is more cause to call Corbyn and McDonnell terrorist sympathisers, since they have moronically called Hamas friends, made apologies for the IRA, etc.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Khan seems to have more of connection to CAGE than Obama ever had to Bill Ayers. And Tories are happily to play terrorist sympathiser tag on Corbyn and McDonnel, so don't think it had anything to do with race. Labour just need to learn to be smarter about who they associate with.Danny565 said:
It is all very reminiscent of the tactics the Republicans used against Obama: highlight the most utterly tenuous and irrelevant of links to some sinister person (in Obama's case, it was the fact he once happened to be at the same community meeting as that Bill Ayers guy), and hope racial-based suspicions do the rest of the work.RobD said:
What's his race got to do with it?Danny565 said:I see the race-baiting re:Sadiq Khan is about to start again.
As far as I can see, the story amounts to "He once appeared at the same event as someone who was associated with an organisation who later associated with an organisation who would 11 years later make an idiotic comment praising Jihadi John". Clearly a sign that Khan is going to impose sharia law on London and slaughter all white people.
Don't get me wrong, I don't have much time for Khan who seems as dull and unprincipled as politicians come, but an ISIS-sympathiser he clearly isn't.
For me, Khan happening to attend the same event as some unsavoury characters, an event which was protesting for something pretty innocuous, is not in the same league.0 -
Even today, he certainly doesn't shy away from having his photo taken with Jahadi's....and of course is quite happy to quote from a mass murders ramblings.Casino_Royale said:
I think McDonnell is a sympathiser.TheScreamingEagles said:
It really isn't. The morning thread makes the point the Tories use the bunch of terrorist sympathisers line on Corbyn and McDonnell.Danny565 said:
It is all very reminiscent of the tactics the Republicans used against Obama: highlight the most utterly tenuous and irrelevant of links to some sinister person (in Obama's case, it was the fact he once happened to be at the same community meeting as that Bill Ayers guy), and hope racial-based suspicions do the rest of the work.RobD said:
What's his race got to do with it?Danny565 said:I see the race-baiting re:Sadiq Khan is about to start again.
As far as I can see, the story amounts to "He once appeared at the same event as someone who was associated with an organisation who later associated with an organisation who would 11 years later make an idiotic comment praising Jihadi John". Clearly a sign that Khan is going to impose sharia law on London and slaughter all white people.
Don't get me wrong, I don't have much time for Khan who seems as dull and unprincipled as politicians come, but an ISIS-sympathiser he clearly isn't.
The thing isn't that they are sympathisers, more useful idiots.
The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years
Imagine if Osborne like to take group shots with the EDL and quoted Hitler....0 -
If your country goes bust... nothing awful happens to the man on the street. Take Argentina, they went bust in 2001, and their economy boomed in the aftermath. The guys that lose out from debt defaults - by and large - are:another_richard said:
Fair enough but some things have changed since the 1980s.rcs1000 said:Reading the Telegraph "Global Disaster" coming piece is putting me in a surprisingly good mood.
Like The Economist's covers, The Telegraph has a tendency to call things just after they've happened.
The key point, to me, is that you could have written that piece in 1981. You would have pointed to coming defaults in Mexico and in other oil producing countries. You would have pointed out that Western banks (and particularly UK banks) had lent very heavily to resource producers. You would have mentioned that government debt loads had soared through the 1970s, and that economies were fragile from a decade of recession, with record unemployment in many places.
In other words, you would have been very bearish. And you would have been very wrong.
Despite almost every commodity exporter going bust between 1981 and the end of the 1980s, it turned out that developed world was in amazing shape. The 1980s and 1990s, except for a brief (but deep) recession in the early 1990s, were two decades of unparalleled growth.
If every commodity exporter goes bust and 20% of their population decides to emigrate northwards what happens then ?
(1) the shareholders of banks
(2) investors in mutual fund products that own emerging market debt
I'd also point out that Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar are all very sparsely populated. They're not going to be exporting people. (Nor, realistically, are they going to be going bust.)
The big commodity exporters you'd worry about are all in LatAm: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, etc. And I guess they're more the US's problem than ours.0 -
If anyone is looking for a fun way to while away a few minutes, I can heartily recommend laughing at the blind prejudice of most Guardian commenters on the lead online article re: withdrawing state housing from higher earners to allow redistribution to those who earn less/nothing.
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Given the way Cameron and Osborne have grossly misrepresented what they have brought back from Brussels, looks like six of one and half a dozen of the other....viewcode said:
It doesn't matter. The point is to produce stories, day in and day out, to nudge the voter into voting LEAVE. Articles about European countries or the Council of Europe must be led by a statement from an Outer saying "This is why we must leave the EU", even if the EU is not actually involved. Any statement by an Inner must be ignored except for the response by an Outer, and the Outer's response must be the headline. A statement from one Outer and X Neutrals must be headlined as "(X+1) Outers say" even if the statement doesn't actually say that. And so on.Plato_Says said:Putting words in the mouths of the dead is just pathetic and yuck.
oxfordsimon said:
If that is the best reason they can come up with as a reason to vote to leave, they aren't that confident of their case. Really weak headlineTykejohnno said:I think seant mentioned he doesn't know which way the Sunday Times may go on the EU coverage,well tomorrows front page might be given us hints ;-)
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Sunday Times front page:
Thatcher ‘would vote yes to EU’#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/gZabKi0BWf
This is how the British press operates. It's not a machine for producing truths, it's a machine for interpreting events that best serve their proprietors' interests, and they are very good at it.
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Don't forget, on QT he said he was single-handedly responsible for the IRA Ceasefire(s).Casino_Royale said:
I think McDonnell is a sympathiser.TheScreamingEagles said:
It really isn't. The morning thread makes the point the Tories use the bunch of terrorist sympathisers line on Corbyn and McDonnell.Danny565 said:
It is all very reminiscent of the tactics the Republicans used against Obama: highlight the most utterly tenuous and irrelevant of links to some sinister person (in Obama's case, it was the fact he once happened to be at the same community meeting as that Bill Ayers guy), and hope racial-based suspicions do the rest of the work.RobD said:
What's his race got to do with it?Danny565 said:I see the race-baiting re:Sadiq Khan is about to start again.
As far as I can see, the story amounts to "He once appeared at the same event as someone who was associated with an organisation who later associated with an organisation who would 11 years later make an idiotic comment praising Jihadi John". Clearly a sign that Khan is going to impose sharia law on London and slaughter all white people.
Don't get me wrong, I don't have much time for Khan who seems as dull and unprincipled as politicians come, but an ISIS-sympathiser he clearly isn't.
The thing isn't that they are sympathisers, more useful idiots.
The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years0 -
Do inform me, then.FrancisUrquhart said:
You obviously know little about Khan and who he has called friends in the past.Danny565 said:
But (much as I hate to admit it) there is more cause to call Corbyn and McDonnell terrorist sympathisers, since they have moronically called Hamas friends, made apologies for the IRA, etc.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Khan seems to have more of connection to CAGE than Obama ever had to Bill Ayers. And Tories are happily to play terrorist sympathiser tag on Corbyn and McDonnel, so don't think it had anything to do with race. Labour just need to learn to be smarter about who they associate with.Danny565 said:
It is all very reminiscent of the tactics the Republicans used against Obama: highlight the most utterly tenuous and irrelevant of links to some sinister person (in Obama's case, it was the fact he once happened to be at the same community meeting as that Bill Ayers guy), and hope racial-based suspicions do the rest of the work.RobD said:
What's his race got to do with it?Danny565 said:I see the race-baiting re:Sadiq Khan is about to start again.
As far as I can see, the story amounts to "He once appeared at the same event as someone who was associated with an organisation who later associated with an organisation who would 11 years later make an idiotic comment praising Jihadi John". Clearly a sign that Khan is going to impose sharia law on London and slaughter all white people.
Don't get me wrong, I don't have much time for Khan who seems as dull and unprincipled as politicians come, but an ISIS-sympathiser he clearly isn't.
For me, Khan happening to attend the same event as some unsavoury characters, an event which was protesting for something pretty innocuous, is not in the same league.
As I say, I'm basing my comments solely on that Times story, where I can see nothing damning.0 -
There's also the possibility a lot of Londoners won't care at all. After eight years of having a Mayor use London as a base for his personal ambition - Boris took far more power to himself than Ken ever did and has even re-nationalised transport links taking them from the private sector, most people will care if Khan has the right ideas on housing and making life better for Londoners.TheScreamingEagles said:
It really isn't. The morning thread makes the point the Tories use the bunch of terrorist sympathisers line on Corbyn and McDonnell.
The thing isn't that they are sympathisers, more useful idiots.
The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years
As a Conservative, you want Goldsmith to win and Khan to lose - the problem is there is absolutely no positive reason to vote for Goldsmith (or continuity Boris if you prefer). He has nothing to say to most Londoners on most issues and that was apparent at last Wednesday's hustings.
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Cameron and Osborne are transient politicians who believe they hold power, and are fast getting an education into how things really operate.MarqueeMark said:
Given the way Cameron and Osborne have grossly misrepresented what they have brought back from Brussels, looks like six of one and half a dozen of the other....viewcode said:
It doesn't matter. The point is to produce stories, day in and day out, to nudge the voter into voting LEAVE. Articles about European countries or the Council of Europe must be led by a statement from an Outer saying "This is why we must leave the EU", even if the EU is not actually involved. Any statement by an Inner must be ignored except for the response by an Outer, and the Outer's response must be the headline. A statement from one Outer and X Neutrals must be headlined as "(X+1) Outers say" even if the statement doesn't actually say that. And so on.Plato_Says said:Putting words in the mouths of the dead is just pathetic and yuck.
oxfordsimon said:
If that is the best reason they can come up with as a reason to vote to leave, they aren't that confident of their case. Really weak headlineTykejohnno said:I think seant mentioned he doesn't know which way the Sunday Times may go on the EU coverage,well tomorrows front page might be given us hints ;-)
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Sunday Times front page:
Thatcher ‘would vote yes to EU’#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/gZabKi0BWf
This is how the British press operates. It's not a machine for producing truths, it's a machine for interpreting events that best serve their proprietors' interests, and they are very good at it.0 -
"The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years"
The Tories weren't playing those cards 20 years ago as far as I remember. John Major was the very opposite of the type of Conservative leader who would do so.0 -
This will get me drummed out of the PB Tories, but I'm rather keen on Sadiq Khan winning in May (purely for politcalbetting.com reasons)stodge said:
There's also the possibility a lot of Londoners won't care at all. After eight years of having a Mayor use London as a base for his personal ambition - Boris took far more power to himself than Ken ever did and has even re-nationalised transport links taking them from the private sector, most people will care if Khan has the right ideas on housing and making life better for Londoners.TheScreamingEagles said:
It really isn't. The morning thread makes the point the Tories use the bunch of terrorist sympathisers line on Corbyn and McDonnell.
The thing isn't that they are sympathisers, more useful idiots.
The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years
As a Conservative, you want Goldsmith to win and Khan to lose - the problem is there is absolutely no positive reason to vote for Goldsmith (or continuity Boris if you prefer). He has nothing to say to most Londoners on most issues and that was apparent at last Wednesday's hustings.
I'm on him at 33/1 to win and also 33/1 to be Corbyn's replacement.
Plus I think a Tooting by election will be great.0 -
After total PR eff up, we get this
Jack
Hello Twitter! Regarding #RIPTwitter: I want you all to know we're always listening. We never planned to reorder timelines next week.0 -
Rubbish.stodge said:
There's also the possibility a lot of Londoners won't care at all. After eight years of having a Mayor use London as a base for his personal ambition - Boris took far more power to himself than Ken ever did and has even re-nationalised transport links taking them from the private sector, most people will care if Khan has the right ideas on housing and making life better for Londoners.TheScreamingEagles said:
It really isn't. The morning thread makes the point the Tories use the bunch of terrorist sympathisers line on Corbyn and McDonnell.
The thing isn't that they are sympathisers, more useful idiots.
The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years
As a Conservative, you want Goldsmith to win and Khan to lose - the problem is there is absolutely no positive reason to vote for Goldsmith (or continuity Boris if you prefer). He has nothing to say to most Londoners on most issues and that was apparent at last Wednesday's hustings.
I lived in London during the last Mayoral election. I voted for Boris because I was didnt want Ken.
Motivating the Tories in the outer boroughs is the way to win this year. I'm confident it will be close, and pointing out the flaws of Khan might be more powerful than you think with the people most likely to vote.0 -
Did I say Sir John Major played those cards, I was talking twenty years henceforth.AndyJS said:"The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years"
The Tories weren't playing those cards 20 years ago as far as I remember. John Major was the very opposite of the type of Conservative leader who would do so.
The section 28 decision still causes problems for the Tories today, and Peter Griffith's support of the 'If you want a n*gger as a neighbour' line also caused problems for years0 -
Leaked document shows Indy Ref 2 is off next month's party agenda despite SNP voters impatience for new vote
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/leaked-document-shows-indy-ref-7320330#ICID=sharebar_twitter#Jj0GehAMROycdMdg.970 -
That reminds me, has Dair left?TheScreamingEagles said:Leaked document shows Indy Ref 2 is off next month's party agenda despite SNP voters impatience for new vote
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/leaked-document-shows-indy-ref-7320330#ICID=sharebar_twitter#Jj0GehAMROycdMdg.970 -
Um..this is exactly wrong. We could gab about theory all day, but nobody on PB likes logic so I need to come out with an anecdote. I had a brief correspondence with an Argentinian supplier around 2011/12 and she was saying about how their price lists were only valid for three months max, inflation was so high she'd need to add on another 10-20%. Even ten years after the event, inflation on the ground was still way higher than we'd consider normal. It make business difficult to transact, and since damn-nearly everything these days is dependent in some way on imports and exports, it does affect everybody. It goes away eventually as things equalise but...well, you know what Keynes said about the long-term.rcs1000 said:If your country goes bust... nothing awful happens to the man on the street. Take Argentina, they went bust in 2001, and their economy boomed in the aftermath.
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Correction I misread the preview. Lord Powell - Lady Thatcher would vote for Remain
Mea culpa, mea culpa.0 -
Sunday Times - It was revealed that Treasury officials had begun contingency planning for a Brexit.0
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Sunday Times source - Gove now “more out than in” and “heading towards the Brexit door”.0
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Remember what I said below about the press reporting on this subject being not necessarily objective or fair? If you're interested, here is the passage from the online transcript of the LSE speech by Martin SchultzTykejohnno said:Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
EU Parliament President @MartinSchulz admits many colleagues say to him 'if the Brits want to leave, let them leave'.
"...This is why personally I am a strong supporter of the UK remaining in EU. And this, despite the fact - and I admit this quite frankly - that the British often test our patience and good will with their continuous demands. They are demanding. They push hard. They insist. They just don't let go. Many of my colleagues say behind closed doors: "Don't stop a rolling stone. If the Brits want to leave, let them leave." I do not support this line that just because the UK can be frustrating it would be in our interest to let it go. I believe we need the UK to make the EU stronger and better. And to make something stronger and better sometimes it's necessary to push hard and be critical. When the UK says it wants to make the EU more democratic, more transparent, more competitive and less bureaucratic - I am in!..."0 -
That was a decade after the default, and after 10 years of mismanagement by Ms Kirchner.viewcode said:
Um..this is exactly wrong. We could gab about theory all day, but nobody on PB likes logic so I need to come out with an anecdote. I had a brief correspondence with an Argentinian supplier around 2011/12 and she was saying about how their price lists were only valid for three months max, inflation was so high she'd need to add on another 10-20%. Even ten years after the event, inflation on the ground was still way higher than we'd consider normal. It make business difficult to transact, and since damn-nearly everything these days is dependent in some way on imports and exports, it does affect everybody. It goes away eventually as things equalise but...well, you know what Keynes said about the long-term.rcs1000 said:If your country goes bust... nothing awful happens to the man on the street. Take Argentina, they went bust in 2001, and their economy boomed in the aftermath.
See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gdp0 -
I agree with Nigel Farage.
Though I reckon he could sway it for Remain
Nigel Farage: I can sway the EU referendum
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/12144526/Nigel-Farage-I-can-sway-the-EU-referendum.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
I find that hard to believe:TheScreamingEagles said:Correction I misread the preview. Lord Powell - Lady Thatcher would vote for Remain
To try to suppress nationhood and concentrate power at the centre of a European conglomerate would be highly damaging and would jeopardise the objectives we seek to achieve. Europe will be stronger precisely because it has France as France, Spain as Spain, Britain as Britain, each with its own customs, traditions and identity. It would be folly to try to fit them into some sort of identikit European personality...it is ironic that just when those countries such as the Soviet Union, which have tried to run everything from the centre, are learning that success depends on dispersing power and decisions away from the centre, there are some in the Community who seem to want to move in the opposite direction. We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels.
- M. H. Thatcher, The Bruges Speech (20 September, 1988)
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All too up tight here for me.
A bit of Santana is required. The perfect seduction soundtrack
https://youtu.be/t6omUxqhG780 -
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.
Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-73254250 -
In what is turning out to be "Let's Misrepresent Martin Schultz Day", let's look at what he actually said in that Sky News article, shall we?Pauly said:Schulz, speaking in an interview on Sky News, said that “legally binding decisions are also reversible -- nothing is irreversible.”
"Nothing in our lives is irreversible. Therefore legally binding decisions are also reversible - nothing is irreversible. But in politics, when 28 heads of states and governments and the European institutions together on the 19 February agree about a deal, the deal is done."
As Cameron helpfully later pointed out, "If it is agreed, it will be agreed as a legally binding treaty deposited at the United Nations. It would only be reversible if all the 28 countries, including Britain, agreed to reverse it. Given its the treaty that Britain wants there's no way we are going to agree to reverse it. So while you can argue it's technically reversible if we agreed to reverse it, it is not in fact reversible. It will be legally binding and irreversible."
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I think that is more wishful thinking than anything else by the Mirror. Even if Cameron does go, the Tories won't want another GE. And Labour can't complain given the Blair / Brown hand over.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.
Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-73254250 -
Why would a new leader want a GE so soon into this parliament?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.
Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-73254250 -
She not having lived in Northern Ireland I think we can be reasonably confident that Mrs T does not have a vote in this referendum. It frankly shows up both sides of the slanging match that this passes for a story.0
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In quiet moments I pop over there, but tbh Twitter keeps me endlessly entertained.
Are you on it? I follow about a dozen or so PBers.
I've more in common with Russian cat tweeters.Mortimer said:If anyone is looking for a fun way to while away a few minutes, I can heartily recommend laughing at the blind prejudice of most Guardian commenters on the lead online article re: withdrawing state housing from higher earners to allow redistribution to those who earn less/nothing.
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Let us say Dave quits June 24th, it would take around 3 months for a new Tory leader to be elected, taking us into October.notme said:
Why would a new leader want a GE so soon into this parliament?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.
Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-7325425
Is a bloody narrow window.0 -
The Argentinian and Venezuelan armies await his call....TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.
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I relied on Louise Mensch for the running commentary as she speaks both.
She'd be a million times better than the current Leave bods.SeanT said:
But then there is the speech Schulz gave in French and German to reporters, saying the English can stay but not at any price, our European parliament in Brussels will always be totally supreme, we can alter the benefits changes here, etc etcviewcode said:
Remember what I said below about the press reporting on this subject being not necessarily objective or fair? If you're interested, here is the passage from the online transcript of the LSE speech by Martin SchultzTykejohnno said:Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
EU Parliament President @MartinSchulz admits many colleagues say to him 'if the Brits want to leave, let them leave'.
"...This is why personally I am a strong supporter of the UK remaining in EU. And this, despite the fact - and I admit this quite frankly - that the British often test our patience and good will with their continuous demands. They are demanding. They push hard. They insist. They just don't let go. Many of my colleagues say behind closed doors: "Don't stop a rolling stone. If the Brits want to leave, let them leave." I do not support this line that just because the UK can be frustrating it would be in our interest to let it go. I believe we need the UK to make the EU stronger and better. And to make something stronger and better sometimes it's necessary to push hard and be critical. When the UK says it wants to make the EU more democratic, more transparent, more competitive and less bureaucratic - I am in!..."
Oddly he didn't say any of this in English.0 -
@CllrSMcCabe: John Swinney: Shedding jobs is better than 1p tax increase https://t.co/htznqgkoTu0
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I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project0 -
He wants to live in Bolivia. Are they neutral here?MarqueeMark said:
The Argentinian and Venezuelan armies await his call....TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.
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Well, that's a popular view. Somewhere.Scott_P said:
@CllrSMcCabe: John Swinney: Shedding jobs is better than 1p tax increase https://t.co/htznqgkoTu
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Looks like the Tories are set for a thumping majority at the Holyrood elections.Scott_P said:@CllrSMcCabe: John Swinney: Shedding jobs is better than 1p tax increase https://t.co/htznqgkoTu
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Well that's something I never knew - Argentina being one of the great economic success stories of the 21st century.rcs1000 said:
If your country goes bust... nothing awful happens to the man on the street. Take Argentina, they went bust in 2001, and their economy boomed in the aftermath. The guys that lose out from debt defaults - by and large - are:another_richard said:
Fair enough but some things have changed since the 1980s.rcs1000 said:Reading the Telegraph "Global Disaster" coming piece is putting me in a surprisingly good mood.
Like The Economist's covers, The Telegraph has a tendency to call things just after they've happened.
The key point, to me, is that you could have written that piece in 1981. You would have pointed to coming defaults in Mexico and in other oil producing countries. You would have pointed out that Western banks (and particularly UK banks) had lent very heavily to resource producers. You would have mentioned that government debt loads had soared through the 1970s, and that economies were fragile from a decade of recession, with record unemployment in many places.
In other words, you would have been very bearish. And you would have been very wrong.
Despite almost every commodity exporter going bust between 1981 and the end of the 1980s, it turned out that developed world was in amazing shape. The 1980s and 1990s, except for a brief (but deep) recession in the early 1990s, were two decades of unparalleled growth.
If every commodity exporter goes bust and 20% of their population decides to emigrate northwards what happens then ?
(1) the shareholders of banks
(2) investors in mutual fund products that own emerging market debt
I'd also point out that Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar are all very sparsely populated. They're not going to be exporting people. (Nor, realistically, are they going to be going bust.)
The big commodity exporters you'd worry about are all in LatAm: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, etc. And I guess they're more the US's problem than ours.
Why don't we all go bust and emulate Argentina's triumph.
As to the population of oil exporters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports
Saudi 30m
Russia 144m
Iran 78m
Iraq 37m
Nigeria 182m
I grant you that Kuwait has a small population.
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Well, yes, but you could say the one begat the other: comfortable, stable countries don't elect Kirchners.rcs1000 said:
That was a decade after the default, and after 10 years of mismanagement by Ms Kirchner.viewcode said:
Um..this is exactly wrong. We could gab about theory all day, but nobody on PB likes logic so I need to come out with an anecdote. I had a brief correspondence with an Argentinian supplier around 2011/12 and she was saying about how their price lists were only valid for three months max, inflation was so high she'd need to add on another 10-20%. Even ten years after the event, inflation on the ground was still way higher than we'd consider normal. It make business difficult to transact, and since damn-nearly everything these days is dependent in some way on imports and exports, it does affect everybody. It goes away eventually as things equalise but...well, you know what Keynes said about the long-term.rcs1000 said:If your country goes bust... nothing awful happens to the man on the street. Take Argentina, they went bust in 2001, and their economy boomed in the aftermath.
See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gdp
However, if you could go to the very handy link you just provided and find the 1Y-5Y-10Y-MAX bar. Now press MAX and have a look at the line graph. You see a steep drop at the time of the crisis. It then starts to rise again quickly (the boom you are referring to) and returns to pre-crash levels by about 2007. Fine.
But this neglects the stuff that wasn't produced during the crisis - it isn't until 2010 that the Argentinian economy had produced the same amount of stuff it would have produced if the crash had not occurred (and that assumes zero growth).
People always neglect things like opportunity cost during a crash. Sorry, it's a hobbyhorse of mine: crashes always hurt, and people always get hurt in the process.0 -
Utter bollocks. If he goes the Tories elect a new leader and carry on. Simples.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.
Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-73254250 -
A second place Official Opposition place for Tories in Scotland will make me laugh longer and harder than Corbyn.
It's surreal and epically amusing.Pulpstar said:
Looks like the Tories are set for a thumping majority at the Holyrood elections.Scott_P said:@CllrSMcCabe: John Swinney: Shedding jobs is better than 1p tax increase https://t.co/htznqgkoTu
0 -
Sensation endorsement for Jeb Bush, this could swing it for him.
Martin Shkreli, the disgraced ex-CEO of Turing Pharmaceuticals, revealed on Friday night that he is backing the presidential candidacy of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pharma-bro-martin-shkreli-supports-jeb-bush_us_56b642d5e4b01d80b246864f?section=politics0 -
Gotta transcript? (genuine question)SeanT said:
But then there is the speech Schulz gave in French and German to reporters, saying the English can stay but not at any price, our European parliament in Brussels will always be totally supreme, we can alter the benefits changes here, etc etcviewcode said:
Remember what I said below about the press reporting on this subject being not necessarily objective or fair? If you're interested, here is the passage from the online transcript of the LSE speech by Martin SchultzTykejohnno said:Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
EU Parliament President @MartinSchulz admits many colleagues say to him 'if the Brits want to leave, let them leave'.
"...This is why personally I am a strong supporter of the UK remaining in EU. And this, despite the fact - and I admit this quite frankly - that the British often test our patience and good will with their continuous demands. They are demanding. They push hard. They insist. They just don't let go. Many of my colleagues say behind closed doors: "Don't stop a rolling stone. If the Brits want to leave, let them leave." I do not support this line that just because the UK can be frustrating it would be in our interest to let it go. I believe we need the UK to make the EU stronger and better. And to make something stronger and better sometimes it's necessary to push hard and be critical. When the UK says it wants to make the EU more democratic, more transparent, more competitive and less bureaucratic - I am in!..."
Oddly he didn't say any of this in English.0 -
One scenario which hasn't been discussed much is England, Wales and Northern Ireland collectively vote Leave narrowly and Scottish votes tip the overall balance in Remain's favour.SeanT said:
With oil at $30, colour me surprised, in shades of tartan. An indyref any time soon would lose 60/40 or more, and put the issue to bed for 25 years.TheScreamingEagles said:Leaked document shows Indy Ref 2 is off next month's party agenda despite SNP voters impatience for new vote
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/leaked-document-shows-indy-ref-7320330#ICID=sharebar_twitter#Jj0GehAMROycdMdg.97
The interesting question is whether the Nats would risk an indyref even if the UK votes LEAVE and Scotland votes REMAIN.
I'm not sure they would. Because 1. it would be constitutionally almost impossible for the first few years, as the UK negotiates its divorce, and then, when the coast WAS clear, it would be by no means certain the Scots would go for divorce from England, because the choice would be even starker: stay with the UK and keep the £, or join the EU and adopt the euro, Schengen etc
My guess is that despite hints otherwise, Sturgeon is praying for a REMAIN vote.0 -
The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project0 -
OT can any pb-ers guess what this is. Classical. Ta ra ra bump ty ehh repeat
It's bugging me and no idea of the tune.0 -
Well I don't know about 1 or 3. But I'm damn certain somebody French will do 2...TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
0 -
It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.
You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.0 -
My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.Casino_Royale said:
It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.
You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.
I even voted Labour in a local election.
(Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)0 -
This is good news, if true.TheScreamingEagles said:Sunday Times source - Gove now “more out than in” and “heading towards the Brexit door”.
Like you, I have a lot of respect for Gove. Not sure he can win over non Tories but within the party he is widely respected.0 -
All of your response was about me or the Guardian.SeanT said:
oh boo hoo. Go and start your own leftwing paper that trots out its own biassed gibberish. See if you can do as well as the Guardian, which does just that, and has lost half its circulation in five years.viewcode said:
It doesn't matter. The point is to produce stories, day in and day out, to nudge the voter into voting LEAVE. Articles about European countries or the Council of Europe must be led by a statement from an Outer saying "This is why we must leave the EU", even if the EU is not actually involved. Any statement by an Inner must be ignored except for the response by an Outer, and the Outer's response must be the headline. A statement from one Outer and X Neutrals must be headlined as "(X+1) Outers say" even if the statement doesn't actually say that. And so on.Plato_Says said:Putting words in the mouths of the dead is just pathetic and yuck.
oxfordsimon said:
If that is the best reason they can come up with as a reason to vote to leave, they aren't that confident of their case. Really weak headlineTykejohnno said:I think seant mentioned he doesn't know which way the Sunday Times may go on the EU coverage,well tomorrows front page might be given us hints ;-)
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Sunday Times front page:
Thatcher ‘would vote yes to EU’#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/gZabKi0BWf
This is how the British press operates. It's not a machine for producing truths, it's a machine for interpreting events that best serve their proprietors' interests, and they are very good at it.
None of your response was whether what I said was true or not.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eh0MC8LXM8Plato_Says said:OT can any pb-ers guess what this is. Classical. Ta ra ra bump ty ehh repeat
It's bugging me and no idea of the tune.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ta-ra-ra_Boom-de-ay0 -
Worth bearing in mind that both Tebbit and Lawson - her closest allies - were way more europhile than her during the 80s, although Tebbit quickly realised his mistake.Sunil_Prasannan said:
To try to suppress nationhood and concentrate power at the centre of a European conglomerate would be highly damaging and would jeopardise the objectives we seek to achieve. Europe will be stronger precisely because it has France as France, Spain as Spain, Britain as Britain, each with its own customs, traditions and identity. It would be folly to try to fit them into some sort of identikit European personality...it is ironic that just when those countries such as the Soviet Union, which have tried to run everything from the centre, are learning that success depends on dispersing power and decisions away from the centre, there are some in the Community who seem to want to move in the opposite direction. We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels.Tykejohnno said:
Some evidence here on Thatcher would be in the out camp -MP_SE said:
That is the biggest load of bollocks.Scott_P said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10045061/Margaret-Thatcher-wanted-Britain-to-leave-the-EU.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12124910/Sir-Bernard-Ingham-EU-is-corrupt-useless-and-riddled-with-fraud.html
- M. H. Thatcher, The Bruges Speech (20 September, 1988)
Hell, even Farage was with it until he realised the implications of the Single European Act.
No question whatsoever she would be for Leave today.
0 -
Francois Hollande saying he wants a Brexit could swing it for me.viewcode said:
Well I don't know about 1 or 3. But I'm damn certain somebody French will do 2...TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project0 -
Now Toby Perkins seems to be a nice person who posted at UKPR before he was elected.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.
Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-7325425
But how is he a 'Senior Labour MP' ?
He was first elected in 2010 and led Liz Kendall leadership campaign.
0 -
Best to ignore what anyone says about the EU Ref, I don't believe what Dave tells me and I certainly don't believe any of the Booers ..
0 -
Crikey, 48 Tory backbenchers said it was a good deal.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Charles Pole's reason for saying Lady Thatcher would vote for Remain is this
The one thing I never heard her propose was Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. The reason was simple: her aim was to change it, not leave it.0 -
Ha! Many thanx
Was reading a Sherlock story and he hummed it.viewcode said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eh0MC8LXM8Plato_Says said:OT can any pb-ers guess what this is. Classical. Ta ra ra bump ty ehh repeat
It's bugging me and no idea of the tune.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ta-ra-ra_Boom-de-ay0 -
You really just have to shake your head at those 48 Tory MPs who think that Cameron got a good deal. Vote Remain if you must, but have the honesty to say that the deal is a crock...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Plausible. He is a politician, after all.SeanT said:
No. Various twitter reports at the time. No reason to believe they are wrong. Schulz is known for being outspoken and provocative. He admits it.viewcode said:
Gotta transcript? (genuine question)SeanT said:
But then there is the speech Schulz gave in French and German to reporters, saying the English can stay but not at any price, our European parliament in Brussels will always be totally supreme, we can alter the benefits changes here, etc etcviewcode said:
Remember what I said below about the press reporting on this subject being not necessarily objective or fair? If you're interested, here is the passage from the online transcript of the LSE speech by Martin SchultzTykejohnno said:Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
EU Parliament President @MartinSchulz admits many colleagues say to him 'if the Brits want to leave, let them leave'.
"...This is why personally I am a strong supporter of the UK remaining in EU. And this, despite the fact - and I admit this quite frankly - that the British often test our patience and good will with their continuous demands. They are demanding. They push hard. They insist. They just don't let go. Many of my colleagues say behind closed doors: "Don't stop a rolling stone. If the Brits want to leave, let them leave." I do not support this line that just because the UK can be frustrating it would be in our interest to let it go. I believe we need the UK to make the EU stronger and better. And to make something stronger and better sometimes it's necessary to push hard and be critical. When the UK says it wants to make the EU more democratic, more transparent, more competitive and less bureaucratic - I am in!..."
Oddly he didn't say any of this in English.0 -
And, Charles, when the EU refuses to change?TheScreamingEagles said:Charles Pole's reason for saying Lady Thatcher would vote for Remain is this
The one thing I never heard her propose was Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. The reason was simple: her aim was to change it, not leave it.0 -
I agree - not sure what Powell's been smokin'Casino_Royale said:
Worth bearing in mind that both Tebbit and Lawson - her closest allies - were way more europhile than her during the 80s, although Tebbit quickly realised his mistake.Sunil_Prasannan said:
To try to suppress nationhood and concentrate power at the centre of a European conglomerate would be highly damaging and would jeopardise the objectives we seek to achieve. Europe will be stronger precisely because it has France as France, Spain as Spain, Britain as Britain, each with its own customs, traditions and identity. It would be folly to try to fit them into some sort of identikit European personality...it is ironic that just when those countries such as the Soviet Union, which have tried to run everything from the centre, are learning that success depends on dispersing power and decisions away from the centre, there are some in the Community who seem to want to move in the opposite direction. We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels.Tykejohnno said:
Some evidence here on Thatcher would be in the out camp -MP_SE said:
That is the biggest load of bollocks.Scott_P said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10045061/Margaret-Thatcher-wanted-Britain-to-leave-the-EU.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12124910/Sir-Bernard-Ingham-EU-is-corrupt-useless-and-riddled-with-fraud.html
- M. H. Thatcher, The Bruges Speech (20 September, 1988)
Hell, even Farage was with it until he realised the implications of the Single European Act.
No question whatsoever she would be for Leave today.
0 -
Mr Herdson. After your rather simplistic analysis earlier of Cruz/Trump/Rubio, you would do well to read this piece by Nate Cohn of the NYT. This is how you analyze the US primary nominations - performance against expectations based on the demographics of the state, not the head to head horse race status based on two atypical states. Think of it as how you analyze who will win a decathlon after the first two events.
As you will see, on this basis, Cruz' win in Iowa flatters to deceive - it in fact shows that his chances of getting the nomination are next to zero.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/upshot/the-way-ted-cruz-won-in-iowa-suggests-trouble-ahead.html?_r=20 -
A very good piece by Pole.MarqueeMark said:
And, Charles, when the EU refuses to change?TheScreamingEagles said:Charles Pole's reason for saying Lady Thatcher would vote for Remain is this
The one thing I never heard her propose was Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. The reason was simple: her aim was to change it, not leave it.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article1665381.ece0 -
viewcode said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eh0MC8LXM8Plato_Says said:OT can any pb-ers guess what this is. Classical. Ta ra ra bump ty ehh repeat
It's bugging me and no idea of the tune.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ta-ra-ra_Boom-de-ay
No I think it is this one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZlbLj_nlJM0 -
I wonder if Herr Schulz has asked any of those colleagues their thoughts on how to plug the budgetary gap.notme said:
They dont really want to leave, they would just like a few of the rules to be a bit more amenable to their dispensation.Tykejohnno said:Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
EU Parliament President @MartinSchulz admits many colleagues say to him 'if the Brits want to leave, let them leave'.
0 -
He is the key to the Cameroon project. If the Tories are to remain an electable and sane centre right party then he needs to be able to control his successor and it is slipping away from him fast.SeanT said:
Calm down. It's not self destructing. Cameron has been Tory leader for ten years, he is just reaching the inevitable end of all political careers: failure. Either it will be the failure of a referendum victory that turns sour, or the harsher failure of an actual referendum loss.DavidL said:
The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
His error of judgment on the deal was a symptom of his fading powers. He bought into the idea he was such a brilliant salesman he could sell a cup of cold sick.
But he's just one politician. The Tories (Europe aside) are very united, moreover they can perceive a potentially serious and deadly enemy of Great Britain - the Far Left in power courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories won't go to pieces. They are patriots. They will stay in government and aim to win emphatixally in 2020.0 -
So that's 238 Conservative backbenchersTheScreamingEagles said:
66 out
50 in
12 don't know
16 no comment
94 did not respond
===
238 total
0 -
Cameron resigning as PM this year doesn't mean there would be a general election, does it?0
-
There weren't elections in 1990 or 2007.AndyJS said:Cameron resigning as PM this year doesn't mean there would be a general election, does it?
0 -
I wonder how many of the 50 are vassals of George Osborne.viewcode said:
So that's 238 Conservative backbenchersTheScreamingEagles said:
66 out
50 in
12 don't know
16 no comment
94 did not respond
===
238 total0 -
Isn't it so marvellously bawdy.DavidL said:viewcode said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eh0MC8LXM8Plato_Says said:OT can any pb-ers guess what this is. Classical. Ta ra ra bump ty ehh repeat
It's bugging me and no idea of the tune.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ta-ra-ra_Boom-de-ay
No I think it is this one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZlbLj_nlJM0 -
Ah, civic Nationalism at its finest...
@AgentP22: Welcome to Nicola Sturgeon's Scotland. https://t.co/A3uaPY19RG0 -
Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.TheScreamingEagles said:
My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.Casino_Royale said:
It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.
You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.
I even voted Labour in a local election.
(Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
I think just voting in opposition to a group within the party you don't particularly like is a bit silly.0 -
Voting leave to spite Dave or remain out of loyalty cry is plain daft. Shades of Clegg and the AV referendum. It's not something anyone should base their vote on.Casino_Royale said:
Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.0 -
When's the New Hampshire debate tonight, I want to see the "Flamingo kid" put under a bit of heat...0
-
Outside of the EU I am seriously not sure there is really anything the Tory party nor a fair proportion of those who have scarpered to UKIP disagree over. I can't really think of a single issue where there is disagreement of anything more than the degree of change (by which I mean there are some like me who think they have gone nowhere near far enough with austerity for example). I suspect that the homophobes are now as endangered as the federalists like Clark.DavidL said:
He is the key to the Cameroon project. If the Tories are to remain an electable and sane centre right party then he needs to be able to control his successor and it is slipping away from him fast.SeanT said:
Calm down. It's not self destructing. Cameron has been Tory leader for ten years, he is just reaching the inevitable end of all political careers: failure. Either it will be the failure of a referendum victory that turns sour, or the harsher failure of an actual referendum loss.DavidL said:
The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
His error of judgment on the deal was a symptom of his fading powers. He bought into the idea he was such a brilliant salesman he could sell a cup of cold sick.
But he's just one politician. The Tories (Europe aside) are very united, moreover they can perceive a potentially serious and deadly enemy of Great Britain - the Far Left in power courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories won't go to pieces. They are patriots. They will stay in government and aim to win emphatixally in 2020.
If REMAIN win the Tory party will continue to fracture over the EU issue. If LEAVE win then no matter what side Cameron was on the party as a whole will unite. TSE should seriously be hoping for a LEAVE win.0 -
See I view it as, whether we vote to Remain or Leave, the sun shall still shine, and the UK shall be a success inside or outside of the EU.Casino_Royale said:
Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.TheScreamingEagles said:
My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.Casino_Royale said:
It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.
You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.
I even voted Labour in a local election.
(Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
I think just voting in opposition to a group within the party you don't particularly like is a bit silly.
I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.0 -
I was thinking about this earlier today. When you think about it, 'Europe' has troubled Cameron throughout that whole ten years and, whenever he's really let me down, it's been about the EU.SeanT said:
Calm down. It's not self destructing. Cameron has been Tory leader for ten years, he is just reaching the inevitable end of all political careers: failure. Either it will be the failure of a referendum victory that turns sour, or the harsher failure of an actual referendum loss.DavidL said:
The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
His error of judgment on the deal was a symptom of his fading powers. He bought into the idea he was such a brilliant salesman he could sell a cup of cold sick.
But he's just one politician. The Tories (Europe aside) are very united, moreover they can perceive a potentially serious and deadly enemy of Great Britain - the Far Left in power courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories won't go to pieces. They are patriots. They will stay in government and aim to win emphatixally in 2020.
He started by positioning himself as even *more* eurosceptic than David Davis, pledging to withdraw the Tories from the EPP, which he carried through. Then there was that 'cast iron' guarantee that fell to pieces days after the Lisbon Treaty.
Then it was 'we won't let matters rest there', then the pledge to repatriate social and employment policy, then the giant EU rebellion of 2011, then the treaty veto (politically popular and nationally) then the EAW, then the Bloomberg speech (good), then the EU referendum promise, the promise to 'get what Britain needs'... The heavy hints on limiting EU migration and securing opt outs. But then the 'halved the bill' spin...
His problem has been to pitch as a sympathetic eurosceptic but to never deliver very much on it. He's tried to ride both horses at the same time. I think it's that which has caused him the real problems.
If he'd just been a shoulder-shrugging status-quo man, he'd never have been loved, but he might not have the resentment and discipline problems he now has.0 -
The Tories will thrash a Corbyn-led Labour Party, regardless.DavidL said:
He is the key to the Cameroon project. If the Tories are to remain an electable and sane centre right party then he needs to be able to control his successor and it is slipping away from him fast.SeanT said:
Calm down. It's not self destructing. Cameron has been Tory leader for ten years, he is just reaching the inevitable end of all political careers: failure. Either it will be the failure of a referendum victory that turns sour, or the harsher failure of an actual referendum loss.DavidL said:
The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
His error of judgment on the deal was a symptom of his fading powers. He bought into the idea he was such a brilliant salesman he could sell a cup of cold sick.
But he's just one politician. The Tories (Europe aside) are very united, moreover they can perceive a potentially serious and deadly enemy of Great Britain - the Far Left in power courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories won't go to pieces. They are patriots. They will stay in government and aim to win emphatixally in 2020.0 -
For England and Wales it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.0 -
Nah. 2020 will be even more important.Pulpstar said:
For England and Wales it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.
The country will be voting on whether it wants to be led by Jeremy Corbyn, anything other than a comprehensive Tory victory is needed to repudiate the idea of Corbynism for a generation.
Otherwise post 2020 the Tories will eventually feck up big style and we're going to have someone like Corbyn winning a general election.0 -
Thanks. I view it that importantly because we might not get another vote for decades, which means decades without political control in this country over major swathes of policy and legislation.TheScreamingEagles said:
See I view it as, whether we vote to Remain or Leave, the sun shall still shine, and the UK shall be a success inside or outside of the EU.Casino_Royale said:
Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.TheScreamingEagles said:
My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.Casino_Royale said:
It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.
You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.
I even voted Labour in a local election.
(Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
I think just voting in opposition to a group within the party you don't particularly like is a bit silly.
I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.
I make no call on what those policies should be if we have those powers returned. I just think people in this country should be able to decide and, hopefully, we can continue to debate them on here, knowing that the choice truly does rest with us.0 -
I don't believe that Corbyn will be the leader in 2020. Or McDonnell. Labour will come to their senses, especially if they think they have a chance. And they are being given one right now.Sean_F said:
The Tories will thrash a Corbyn-led Labour Party, regardless.DavidL said:
He is the key to the Cameroon project. If the Tories are to remain an electable and sane centre right party then he needs to be able to control his successor and it is slipping away from him fast.SeanT said:
Calm down. It's not self destructing. Cameron has been Tory leader for ten years, he is just reaching the inevitable end of all political careers: failure. Either it will be the failure of a referendum victory that turns sour, or the harsher failure of an actual referendum loss.DavidL said:
The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
His error of judgment on the deal was a symptom of his fading powers. He bought into the idea he was such a brilliant salesman he could sell a cup of cold sick.
But he's just one politician. The Tories (Europe aside) are very united, moreover they can perceive a potentially serious and deadly enemy of Great Britain - the Far Left in power courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories won't go to pieces. They are patriots. They will stay in government and aim to win emphatixally in 2020.0 -
Unexpected discoveries to put you in a good mood, part 73:
Discovering you placed (and forgot you placed) a £15 bet with Hills over 6 months ago on Rubio for Next President at 14/1.0 -
I think it is my eternal optimism about the UK that colours my judgement on these things, I see us as a great nation state in a globalised world, Remaining or Leaving won't affect that.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks. I view it that importantly because we might not get another vote for decades, which means decades without political control in this country over major swathes of policy and legislation.TheScreamingEagles said:
See I view it as, whether we vote to Remain or Leave, the sun shall still shine, and the UK shall be a success inside or outside of the EU.Casino_Royale said:
Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.TheScreamingEagles said:
My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.Casino_Royale said:
It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.
You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.
I even voted Labour in a local election.
(Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
I think just voting in opposition to a group within the party you don't particularly like is a bit silly.
I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.
I make no call on what those policies should be if we have those powers returned. I just think people in this country should be able to decide and, hopefully, we can continue to debate them on here, knowing that the choice truly does rest with us.0 -
Tosh.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah. 2020 will be even more important.Pulpstar said:
For England and Wales it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.
The country will be voting on whether it wants to be led by Jeremy Corbyn, anything other than a comprehensive Tory victory is needed to repudiate the idea of Corbynism for a generation.
Otherwise post 2020 the Tories will eventually feck up big style and we're going to have someone like Corbyn winning a general election.
And here's why.
Labour will inevitably get back into power, and as the next Labour leader is likely to be someone on the Labour left it is only a matter of time. Probably not 2020, perhaps 2025 - note Crosby's autoregressive component to the LN model.
As such the 2020 GE is most likely to be the final GE for the Tories.
Whereas the EU referendum is NOT a delaying referendum. It is an actual choice for the British population, and breaks from the inevitable Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory cycle that tends to take ~ 10-15 years or so on average.0 -
TONIGHT: Republican presidential candidates to face off in @ABC News #GOPDebate in New Hampshire at 8/7c https://t.co/NALC5ZOy660
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Hah, that improves the book a bit I guess for you :PCasino_Royale said:Unexpected discoveries to put you in a good mood, part 73:
Discovering you placed (and forgot you placed) a £15 bet with Hills over 6 months ago on Rubio for Next President at 14/1.
Are you now a big fan of the Havana wonderboy ?0 -
Also, reminds me of when I found some 33-1 betslips I'd forgotten about on Zac.Casino_Royale said:Unexpected discoveries to put you in a good mood, part 73:
Discovering you placed (and forgot you placed) a £15 bet with Hills over 6 months ago on Rubio for Next President at 14/1.0 -
I am optimistic about the UK; I am not about the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it is my eternal optimism about the UK that colours my judgement on these things, I see us as a great nation state in a globalised world, Remaining or Leaving won't affect that.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks. I view it that importantly because we might not get another vote for decades, which means decades without political control in this country over major swathes of policy and legislation.TheScreamingEagles said:
See I view it as, whether we vote to Remain or Leave, the sun shall still shine, and the UK shall be a success inside or outside of the EU.Casino_Royale said:
Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.TheScreamingEagles said:
My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.Casino_Royale said:
It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.TheScreamingEagles said:I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain
i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry
ii) The French announce they want us to leave
iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.
You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.
I even voted Labour in a local election.
(Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
I think just voting in opposition to a group within the party you don't particularly like is a bit silly.
I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.
I make no call on what those policies should be if we have those powers returned. I just think people in this country should be able to decide and, hopefully, we can continue to debate them on here, knowing that the choice truly does rest with us.0 -
Maybe.Pulpstar said:
Tosh.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah. 2020 will be even more important.Pulpstar said:
For England and Wales it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.
The country will be voting on whether it wants to be led by Jeremy Corbyn, anything other than a comprehensive Tory victory is needed to repudiate the idea of Corbynism for a generation.
Otherwise post 2020 the Tories will eventually feck up big style and we're going to have someone like Corbyn winning a general election.
And here's why.
Labour will inevitably get back into power, and as the next Labour leader is likely to be someone on the Labour left it is only a matter of time. Probably not 2020, perhaps 2025 - note Crosby's autoregressive component to the LN model.
As such the 2020 GE is most likely to be the final GE for the Tories.
Whereas the EU referendum is NOT a delaying referendum. It is an actual choice for the British population, and breaks from the inevitable Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory cycle that tends to take ~ 10-15 years or so on average.0 -
@Thescreamingeagles And this is why you were absolutely SPOT ON not to vote for Corbyn in the Labour leadership contest. Not because he'll win 2020, but his and his acolytes can shape Labour going forward and then they can win 2025
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