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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other divide in EURef polling: the more positive it loo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other divide in EURef polling: the more positive it looks for BREXIT if actual words not used
Since August PB has been featuring a regular table on the state of voting intentions for the referendum. For the sake of consistency the only polls that are included are those where the actual wording on the ballot, as above, is used.
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Perhaps it would be fair to change "Remain" to "Further In", which is what it will mean in practice.
World Cup Final 1979
G Boycott 57 105 balls
Richards 10 0 35 0
King 3 0 13 0
Galling to see another East Midlands team doing so well, but on the bright side, it isn't Derby ;-)
Anyone remember how those 2010 Lib Dems were going to put Labour into Number 10?
Innocent face.
Reality is we will be watching hundreds of thousands of migrants on our screens going into the June referendum.
I agree too with the "further in" point. If the question were "Should the UK continue to participate in Europe's process of ever closer union, or cease to do so", you might get a very different result.
http://uk.soccerway.com/players/thomas-teye-partey/250434/
The likes of Barca playing at the King Power looks nailed on.
Q: The bookies make you favourites ...
Ranieri: 'I don't believe bookmakers. They said at the beginning Ranieri was favourite to be sacked!'
I wonder how much money he backed that equation up with.
As such although this is interesting (and I honestly defy anyone to claim this was known before the wording was chosen bearing in mind HMG was forced to change the wording) it doesn't seem to have much bearing on our analysis of the current polling.
What wording did Yougov use in their poll that showed the 9 point Leave
However gambling in America like that is a crime, I believe.
Countries With The Most Venomous Animals - https://t.co/BarLlf5g2J https://t.co/kfGfYmgIWa
The wording was part of the statutory advice given to the Government by the Electoral Commission
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-referendums/electoral-commission-recommends-change-to-eu-referendum-question
o2 is my main network, three is for when I go overseas.
I used to rack up phone bills of £600 a time when I used to go abroad, but with three it is costs nowt.
What a muppet.
But quite literally millions of migrants gate-crashing the EU is just the very worst thing that could have come Remain's way. Short of an EU-wide military operation to detain and return, this is going to be the primary matter in voters' minds. Without secure borders, any level of economic growth is going to be sucked into providing an unending requirement for health/education/housing/policing.
That ISIS is smuggling its fighters within that mass is just the worst possible adjunct to Merkel's madness. The arrogance to just expect the EU to go along with her actions is going to be a huge boost for Leave, even if that campaign is fronted by total fuckwits. This time the message is all, not the messenger.
https://twitter.com/fplpricechanges/status/695993342342074368
But how long to Man U's next title? Next year with Mourihno?
I think betfair exchange has a minimum bet size though (min £50 stake/liability IIRC)
Merkel effectively opened the door to any criminal, layabout or general lowlife from the Atlantic to the Arabian Sea.
Leave cannot win with immigration alone.
Today the Telegraph goes into Huntsman mode:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12138466/when-is-the-next-financial-crash-coming-oil-prices-markets-recession.html
And yet its the standard policy of governments to assume nice, steady economic growth progressing endlessly into the far future.
What happens if it doesn't ?
I had this when my vpn redirected via another couple the country even though I was in the UK & my account was frozen until I provided loads of proof.
FrancisUrquhart said:
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The new Dell laptop ranges are outstanding both technically and value for money. i7, 4k displays, M.2 SSD drives, dedicated graphics card, etc etc etc. And a much sleeker modern design, starting I think for about £750.
Just before Christmas, I got a technically superior laptop to anything Apple offers for < £1000.
PfP replied:
Many thanks for your helpful suggestions - I'll have a look see at Dell's offering.
On the retail side of things, it's surprising how things have changed over the past 2-3 years. At one time amazon were all conquering in the computer market, in terms of choice, price and availability - nowadays it's very much more a rag, tag and bobtail selection, including many second hand/reconditioned jobbies ...... not a welcoming experience at all.
PC World - Currys on the other hand, who appeared dead on their feet a few years ago, are now so much the market leader and are superior to amazon in every regard, including their bright and airy showrooms and very competitive pricing.
Alternatively you could have the best case / mid case / worst case scenarios. But imaging realistic worst-case scenarios is hard.
Perhaps economic forecasting is just fiendishly difficult.
Instead of worrying about IS sympathisers embedded within the migrants, why not worry about the radicalisation of British people - remind me how many of the 7/7 bombers were migrants ?
It's also a bit late to worry about the impact of migration on society. Yes, we may all think the Polish plumber is cheap and hard working and we may think the Romanian builder's a nice chap but embedded within that wave of migrants were petty criminals and thieves. People move to where the money and the work is but to assume all those moving simply want to work hard and earn money is naive.
Simply walk down a road like East Ham High Street, look at the drunks outside Lidl, the groups of men hanging round the multitude of betting shops and the Romanian and Polish grocers and the crowd of men outside Wickes looking for cash work every day and you see the other side of migration.
We know they are crammed into houses in a density not seen since the bad old days of the East End slums and we also know criminal gangs operate and you worry about those fleeing Assad's troops in Aleppo. The argument for voting LEAVE is that the EU and successive Governments failed to understand the events of 1989 and instead plundered the ex-Communist countries as sources for cheap property and cheaper labour.
Unfortunately governments would rather spend that reserve to buy votes when required.
You go on to spend £350 and come out with £500 of rubbish. They might have made a couple of quid on the laptop, but a 400% mark up on warranty services.
It's easy enough for me to say no, but the average uninformed members of the public get sucked in.
Well. closer than Liverpool's next title anyway...
As there's always plenty of Eastern Europeans shopping in proper supermarkets how do these 'EuroMart' places get enough custom to survive ? Everyone I know assumes they're fronts for more nefarious activities - open all day with a cash turnover being useful for that sort of thing I expect.
Whilst there might be some money laundering going on, I think there are other factors that help them run: e.g. cheap family labour.
If there are no moving parts it is either a manufacturing defects or there is very little to fail under the course of normal usage. Even things like ssd drives that do have a limited lifespan, they have to be used under such heavy load daily in order to reach likely failure point within a reasonable lifespan that you basically have to be running a mini data centre off them.
It might also be worth mentioning that the failure of European policy in Libya and Syria has played a not inconsiderable role in all this. Yes, Cameron has been "unlucky" but he's enjoyed his fair share of good fortune over the years.
You might like the system I've proposed passim then: as we do with defence and International Development, the government allocates a percentage of GDP to all departments. Say 6% education, 10% health etc. You can also allocate a few percent for contingency or 'other' : e.g. paying down the debt.
As each year's economic figures come in, the departmental budgets are set according to the previous year's GDP figures. If the economy contracts, so do all the departmental budgets by the same proportion. A government can then decide to use the contingency (or even borrow) to protect services - but it has to be a concious and public decision to do so.
It'd help departments properly plan without as much political interference in budgets, reduce political control, and place more onus on departments to budget responsibly - handouts, whilst possible, would be very visible. It would also give the public something real aconomically to vote on at elections: "I prefer Labour as they've pledged 12% to NHS," or "I prefer the Conservatives as they've pledged 3% to defence," etc, etc.
As it removes some control from politicians, it'll never happen ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bathtub_curve
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHRYdL8Lw3L6OXiHnKZHi1vo6vUblQhuKg7FPDFuuQ0/edit?usp=sharing
GOP nomination spreadsheet, as the race develops, with every primary/caucus electoral system modelled. In 2012 this sheet showed clearly that Romney was virtually unstoppable.
Only edit the Custom sheet (others should be protected) with your polling data or guesses...
The visual is on the Customgraph page.
The Auto sheet now automatically updates with polls from the Huffpost (median of the past week). Not every state has been polled yet, and some which have are from very old polls, so don't look too far ahead, but this is definitely the sheet to watch. Also has a chart on the Autograph page.
Showing Carson currently as the 4th candidate, although this may change.
Have a play, and ask away... Bugfinders welcome
It is noticeable that when sceptics come into government and thereby more direct contact with the EU that they begin to be more positive about the benefits of it. It seems to be the case both for Labour and Tories.
I'm not a fan of them bar liking the odd track
Do you take a view on the current GOP odds?
It's just to early to think about November. We'll have a better idea in June.
From previous thread I think you are right about importance of democracy for developing countries
He needs both trump & rubio to stay in the game.
Never buy from them again
Therefore the incentive remains to stay in as long as possible, making it something of a self-fulfilling prophesy...
For Desktops, don't know about their laptops.
quite a lot of the scepticism would have been fake and for the convenience of local associations etc. Note Blair's support for EU withdrawal in 1983 - does anyone really think that was sincere?
Admittedly, those colours might be confusing. I might change them.