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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other divide in EURef polling: the more positive it loo

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    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    I see the race-baiting re:Sadiq Khan is about to start again.

    As far as I can see, the story amounts to "He once appeared at the same event as someone who was associated with an organisation who later associated with an organisation who would 11 years later make an idiotic comment praising Jihadi John". Clearly a sign that Khan is going to impose sharia law on London and slaughter all white people.

    What's his race got to do with it?
    It is all very reminiscent of the tactics the Republicans used against Obama: highlight the most utterly tenuous and irrelevant of links to some sinister person (in Obama's case, it was the fact he once happened to be at the same community meeting as that Bill Ayers guy), and hope racial-based suspicions do the rest of the work.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't have much time for Khan who seems as dull and unprincipled as politicians come, but an ISIS-sympathiser he clearly isn't.
    Khan seems to have more of connection to CAGE than Obama ever had to Bill Ayers. And Tories are happily to play terrorist sympathiser tag on Corbyn and McDonnel, so don't think it had anything to do with race. Labour just need to learn to be smarter about who they associate with.
    But (much as I hate to admit it) there is more cause to call Corbyn and McDonnell terrorist sympathisers, since they have moronically called Hamas friends, made apologies for the IRA, etc.

    For me, Khan happening to attend the same event as some unsavoury characters, an event which was protesting for something pretty innocuous, is not in the same league.
    You obviously know little about Khan and who he has called friends in the past.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited February 2016

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    I see the race-baiting re:Sadiq Khan is about to start again.

    As far as I can see, the story amounts to "He once appeared at the same event as someone who was associated with an organisation who later associated with an organisation who would 11 years later make an idiotic comment praising Jihadi John". Clearly a sign that Khan is going to impose sharia law on London and slaughter all white people.

    What's his race got to do with it?
    It is all very reminiscent of the tactics the Republicans used against Obama: highlight the most utterly tenuous and irrelevant of links to some sinister person (in Obama's case, it was the fact he once happened to be at the same community meeting as that Bill Ayers guy), and hope racial-based suspicions do the rest of the work.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't have much time for Khan who seems as dull and unprincipled as politicians come, but an ISIS-sympathiser he clearly isn't.
    It really isn't. The morning thread makes the point the Tories use the bunch of terrorist sympathisers line on Corbyn and McDonnell.

    The thing isn't that they are sympathisers, more useful idiots.

    The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years
    I think McDonnell is a sympathiser.
    Even today, he certainly doesn't shy away from having his photo taken with Jahadi's....and of course is quite happy to quote from a mass murders ramblings.

    Imagine if Osborne like to take group shots with the EDL and quoted Hitler....
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    rcs1000 said:

    Reading the Telegraph "Global Disaster" coming piece is putting me in a surprisingly good mood.

    Like The Economist's covers, The Telegraph has a tendency to call things just after they've happened.

    The key point, to me, is that you could have written that piece in 1981. You would have pointed to coming defaults in Mexico and in other oil producing countries. You would have pointed out that Western banks (and particularly UK banks) had lent very heavily to resource producers. You would have mentioned that government debt loads had soared through the 1970s, and that economies were fragile from a decade of recession, with record unemployment in many places.

    In other words, you would have been very bearish. And you would have been very wrong.

    Despite almost every commodity exporter going bust between 1981 and the end of the 1980s, it turned out that developed world was in amazing shape. The 1980s and 1990s, except for a brief (but deep) recession in the early 1990s, were two decades of unparalleled growth.

    Fair enough but some things have changed since the 1980s.

    If every commodity exporter goes bust and 20% of their population decides to emigrate northwards what happens then ?

    If your country goes bust... nothing awful happens to the man on the street. Take Argentina, they went bust in 2001, and their economy boomed in the aftermath. The guys that lose out from debt defaults - by and large - are:

    (1) the shareholders of banks
    (2) investors in mutual fund products that own emerging market debt

    I'd also point out that Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar are all very sparsely populated. They're not going to be exporting people. (Nor, realistically, are they going to be going bust.)

    The big commodity exporters you'd worry about are all in LatAm: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, etc. And I guess they're more the US's problem than ours.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    edited February 2016
    If anyone is looking for a fun way to while away a few minutes, I can heartily recommend laughing at the blind prejudice of most Guardian commenters on the lead online article re: withdrawing state housing from higher earners to allow redistribution to those who earn less/nothing.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    viewcode said:

    Putting words in the mouths of the dead is just pathetic and yuck.

    I think seant mentioned he doesn't know which way the Sunday Times may go on the EU coverage,well tomorrows front page might be given us hints ;-)

    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
    Sunday Times front page:
    Thatcher ‘would vote yes to EU’#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/gZabKi0BWf

    If that is the best reason they can come up with as a reason to vote to leave, they aren't that confident of their case. Really weak headline
    It doesn't matter. The point is to produce stories, day in and day out, to nudge the voter into voting LEAVE. Articles about European countries or the Council of Europe must be led by a statement from an Outer saying "This is why we must leave the EU", even if the EU is not actually involved. Any statement by an Inner must be ignored except for the response by an Outer, and the Outer's response must be the headline. A statement from one Outer and X Neutrals must be headlined as "(X+1) Outers say" even if the statement doesn't actually say that. And so on.

    This is how the British press operates. It's not a machine for producing truths, it's a machine for interpreting events that best serve their proprietors' interests, and they are very good at it.
    Given the way Cameron and Osborne have grossly misrepresented what they have brought back from Brussels, looks like six of one and half a dozen of the other....

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    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    I see the race-baiting re:Sadiq Khan is about to start again.

    As far as I can see, the story amounts to "He once appeared at the same event as someone who was associated with an organisation who later associated with an organisation who would 11 years later make an idiotic comment praising Jihadi John". Clearly a sign that Khan is going to impose sharia law on London and slaughter all white people.

    What's his race got to do with it?
    It is all very reminiscent of the tactics the Republicans used against Obama: highlight the most utterly tenuous and irrelevant of links to some sinister person (in Obama's case, it was the fact he once happened to be at the same community meeting as that Bill Ayers guy), and hope racial-based suspicions do the rest of the work.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't have much time for Khan who seems as dull and unprincipled as politicians come, but an ISIS-sympathiser he clearly isn't.
    It really isn't. The morning thread makes the point the Tories use the bunch of terrorist sympathisers line on Corbyn and McDonnell.

    The thing isn't that they are sympathisers, more useful idiots.

    The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years
    I think McDonnell is a sympathiser.
    Don't forget, on QT he said he was single-handedly responsible for the IRA Ceasefire(s).
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    I see the race-baiting re:Sadiq Khan is about to start again.

    As far as I can see, the story amounts to "He once appeared at the same event as someone who was associated with an organisation who later associated with an organisation who would 11 years later make an idiotic comment praising Jihadi John". Clearly a sign that Khan is going to impose sharia law on London and slaughter all white people.

    What's his race got to do with it?
    It is all very reminiscent of the tactics the Republicans used against Obama: highlight the most utterly tenuous and irrelevant of links to some sinister person (in Obama's case, it was the fact he once happened to be at the same community meeting as that Bill Ayers guy), and hope racial-based suspicions do the rest of the work.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't have much time for Khan who seems as dull and unprincipled as politicians come, but an ISIS-sympathiser he clearly isn't.
    Khan seems to have more of connection to CAGE than Obama ever had to Bill Ayers. And Tories are happily to play terrorist sympathiser tag on Corbyn and McDonnel, so don't think it had anything to do with race. Labour just need to learn to be smarter about who they associate with.
    But (much as I hate to admit it) there is more cause to call Corbyn and McDonnell terrorist sympathisers, since they have moronically called Hamas friends, made apologies for the IRA, etc.

    For me, Khan happening to attend the same event as some unsavoury characters, an event which was protesting for something pretty innocuous, is not in the same league.
    You obviously know little about Khan and who he has called friends in the past.
    Do inform me, then.

    As I say, I'm basing my comments solely on that Times story, where I can see nothing damning.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,896


    It really isn't. The morning thread makes the point the Tories use the bunch of terrorist sympathisers line on Corbyn and McDonnell.

    The thing isn't that they are sympathisers, more useful idiots.

    The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years

    There's also the possibility a lot of Londoners won't care at all. After eight years of having a Mayor use London as a base for his personal ambition - Boris took far more power to himself than Ken ever did and has even re-nationalised transport links taking them from the private sector, most people will care if Khan has the right ideas on housing and making life better for Londoners.

    As a Conservative, you want Goldsmith to win and Khan to lose - the problem is there is absolutely no positive reason to vote for Goldsmith (or continuity Boris if you prefer). He has nothing to say to most Londoners on most issues and that was apparent at last Wednesday's hustings.

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027

    viewcode said:

    Putting words in the mouths of the dead is just pathetic and yuck.

    I think seant mentioned he doesn't know which way the Sunday Times may go on the EU coverage,well tomorrows front page might be given us hints ;-)

    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
    Sunday Times front page:
    Thatcher ‘would vote yes to EU’#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/gZabKi0BWf

    If that is the best reason they can come up with as a reason to vote to leave, they aren't that confident of their case. Really weak headline
    It doesn't matter. The point is to produce stories, day in and day out, to nudge the voter into voting LEAVE. Articles about European countries or the Council of Europe must be led by a statement from an Outer saying "This is why we must leave the EU", even if the EU is not actually involved. Any statement by an Inner must be ignored except for the response by an Outer, and the Outer's response must be the headline. A statement from one Outer and X Neutrals must be headlined as "(X+1) Outers say" even if the statement doesn't actually say that. And so on.

    This is how the British press operates. It's not a machine for producing truths, it's a machine for interpreting events that best serve their proprietors' interests, and they are very good at it.
    Given the way Cameron and Osborne have grossly misrepresented what they have brought back from Brussels, looks like six of one and half a dozen of the other....

    Cameron and Osborne are transient politicians who believe they hold power, and are fast getting an education into how things really operate.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years"

    The Tories weren't playing those cards 20 years ago as far as I remember. John Major was the very opposite of the type of Conservative leader who would do so.
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    stodge said:


    It really isn't. The morning thread makes the point the Tories use the bunch of terrorist sympathisers line on Corbyn and McDonnell.

    The thing isn't that they are sympathisers, more useful idiots.

    The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years

    There's also the possibility a lot of Londoners won't care at all. After eight years of having a Mayor use London as a base for his personal ambition - Boris took far more power to himself than Ken ever did and has even re-nationalised transport links taking them from the private sector, most people will care if Khan has the right ideas on housing and making life better for Londoners.

    As a Conservative, you want Goldsmith to win and Khan to lose - the problem is there is absolutely no positive reason to vote for Goldsmith (or continuity Boris if you prefer). He has nothing to say to most Londoners on most issues and that was apparent at last Wednesday's hustings.

    This will get me drummed out of the PB Tories, but I'm rather keen on Sadiq Khan winning in May (purely for politcalbetting.com reasons)

    I'm on him at 33/1 to win and also 33/1 to be Corbyn's replacement.

    Plus I think a Tooting by election will be great.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    After total PR eff up, we get this

    Jack
    Hello Twitter! Regarding #RIPTwitter: I want you all to know we're always listening. We never planned to reorder timelines next week.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    stodge said:


    It really isn't. The morning thread makes the point the Tories use the bunch of terrorist sympathisers line on Corbyn and McDonnell.

    The thing isn't that they are sympathisers, more useful idiots.

    The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years

    There's also the possibility a lot of Londoners won't care at all. After eight years of having a Mayor use London as a base for his personal ambition - Boris took far more power to himself than Ken ever did and has even re-nationalised transport links taking them from the private sector, most people will care if Khan has the right ideas on housing and making life better for Londoners.

    As a Conservative, you want Goldsmith to win and Khan to lose - the problem is there is absolutely no positive reason to vote for Goldsmith (or continuity Boris if you prefer). He has nothing to say to most Londoners on most issues and that was apparent at last Wednesday's hustings.

    Rubbish.

    I lived in London during the last Mayoral election. I voted for Boris because I was didnt want Ken.

    Motivating the Tories in the outer boroughs is the way to win this year. I'm confident it will be close, and pointing out the flaws of Khan might be more powerful than you think with the people most likely to vote.
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    AndyJS said:

    "The Tories know if they play the racist/Islamophobic card, it would undo the detoxification strategy for 20 years"

    The Tories weren't playing those cards 20 years ago as far as I remember. John Major was the very opposite of the type of Conservative leader who would do so.

    Did I say Sir John Major played those cards, I was talking twenty years henceforth.

    The section 28 decision still causes problems for the Tories today, and Peter Griffith's support of the 'If you want a n*gger as a neighbour' line also caused problems for years
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,048
    MP_SE said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is the biggest load of bollocks.
    Woman who voted for EU, would vote for EU
    Bollocks?
    Only on PB Kipper Safe Space
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    Leaked document shows Indy Ref 2 is off next month's party agenda despite SNP voters impatience for new vote

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/leaked-document-shows-indy-ref-7320330#ICID=sharebar_twitter#Jj0GehAMROycdMdg.97
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Leaked document shows Indy Ref 2 is off next month's party agenda despite SNP voters impatience for new vote

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/leaked-document-shows-indy-ref-7320330#ICID=sharebar_twitter#Jj0GehAMROycdMdg.97

    That reminds me, has Dair left?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027
    rcs1000 said:

    If your country goes bust... nothing awful happens to the man on the street. Take Argentina, they went bust in 2001, and their economy boomed in the aftermath.

    Um..this is exactly wrong. We could gab about theory all day, but nobody on PB likes logic so I need to come out with an anecdote. I had a brief correspondence with an Argentinian supplier around 2011/12 and she was saying about how their price lists were only valid for three months max, inflation was so high she'd need to add on another 10-20%. Even ten years after the event, inflation on the ground was still way higher than we'd consider normal. It make business difficult to transact, and since damn-nearly everything these days is dependent in some way on imports and exports, it does affect everybody. It goes away eventually as things equalise but...well, you know what Keynes said about the long-term.

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    Correction I misread the preview. Lord Powell - Lady Thatcher would vote for Remain

    Mea culpa, mea culpa.
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    Sunday Times - It was revealed that Treasury officials had begun contingency planning for a Brexit.
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    Sunday Times source - Gove now “more out than in” and “heading towards the Brexit door”.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027

    Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
    EU Parliament President @MartinSchulz admits many colleagues say to him 'if the Brits want to leave, let them leave'.

    Remember what I said below about the press reporting on this subject being not necessarily objective or fair? If you're interested, here is the passage from the online transcript of the LSE speech by Martin Schultz

    "...This is why personally I am a strong supporter of the UK remaining in EU. And this, despite the fact - and I admit this quite frankly - that the British often test our patience and good will with their continuous demands. They are demanding. They push hard. They insist. They just don't let go. Many of my colleagues say behind closed doors: "Don't stop a rolling stone. If the Brits want to leave, let them leave." I do not support this line that just because the UK can be frustrating it would be in our interest to let it go. I believe we need the UK to make the EU stronger and better. And to make something stronger and better sometimes it's necessary to push hard and be critical. When the UK says it wants to make the EU more democratic, more transparent, more competitive and less bureaucratic - I am in!..."
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If your country goes bust... nothing awful happens to the man on the street. Take Argentina, they went bust in 2001, and their economy boomed in the aftermath.

    Um..this is exactly wrong. We could gab about theory all day, but nobody on PB likes logic so I need to come out with an anecdote. I had a brief correspondence with an Argentinian supplier around 2011/12 and she was saying about how their price lists were only valid for three months max, inflation was so high she'd need to add on another 10-20%. Even ten years after the event, inflation on the ground was still way higher than we'd consider normal. It make business difficult to transact, and since damn-nearly everything these days is dependent in some way on imports and exports, it does affect everybody. It goes away eventually as things equalise but...well, you know what Keynes said about the long-term.

    That was a decade after the default, and after 10 years of mismanagement by Ms Kirchner.

    See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gdp
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    I agree with Nigel Farage.

    Though I reckon he could sway it for Remain

    Nigel Farage: I can sway the EU referendum

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/12144526/Nigel-Farage-I-can-sway-the-EU-referendum.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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    Correction I misread the preview. Lord Powell - Lady Thatcher would vote for Remain

    I find that hard to believe:

    To try to suppress nationhood and concentrate power at the centre of a European conglomerate would be highly damaging and would jeopardise the objectives we seek to achieve. Europe will be stronger precisely because it has France as France, Spain as Spain, Britain as Britain, each with its own customs, traditions and identity. It would be folly to try to fit them into some sort of identikit European personality...it is ironic that just when those countries such as the Soviet Union, which have tried to run everything from the centre, are learning that success depends on dispersing power and decisions away from the centre, there are some in the Community who seem to want to move in the opposite direction. We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels.

    - M. H. Thatcher, The Bruges Speech (20 September, 1988)
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    All too up tight here for me.

    A bit of Santana is required. The perfect seduction soundtrack

    https://youtu.be/t6omUxqhG78
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    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.

    Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-7325425
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027
    Pauly said:

    Schulz, speaking in an interview on Sky News, said that “legally binding decisions are also reversible -- nothing is irreversible.”

    In what is turning out to be "Let's Misrepresent Martin Schultz Day", let's look at what he actually said in that Sky News article, shall we?

    "Nothing in our lives is irreversible. Therefore legally binding decisions are also reversible - nothing is irreversible. But in politics, when 28 heads of states and governments and the European institutions together on the 19 February agree about a deal, the deal is done."

    As Cameron helpfully later pointed out, "If it is agreed, it will be agreed as a legally binding treaty deposited at the United Nations. It would only be reversible if all the 28 countries, including Britain, agreed to reverse it. Given its the treaty that Britain wants there's no way we are going to agree to reverse it. So while you can argue it's technically reversible if we agreed to reverse it, it is not in fact reversible. It will be legally binding and irreversible."
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited February 2016

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.

    Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-7325425

    I think that is more wishful thinking than anything else by the Mirror. Even if Cameron does go, the Tories won't want another GE. And Labour can't complain given the Blair / Brown hand over.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.

    Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-7325425

    Why would a new leader want a GE so soon into this parliament?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,408
    She not having lived in Northern Ireland I think we can be reasonably confident that Mrs T does not have a vote in this referendum. It frankly shows up both sides of the slanging match that this passes for a story.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    In quiet moments I pop over there, but tbh Twitter keeps me endlessly entertained.

    Are you on it? I follow about a dozen or so PBers.

    I've more in common with Russian cat tweeters.
    Mortimer said:

    If anyone is looking for a fun way to while away a few minutes, I can heartily recommend laughing at the blind prejudice of most Guardian commenters on the lead online article re: withdrawing state housing from higher earners to allow redistribution to those who earn less/nothing.

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    notme said:

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.

    Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-7325425

    Why would a new leader want a GE so soon into this parliament?
    Let us say Dave quits June 24th, it would take around 3 months for a new Tory leader to be elected, taking us into October.

    Is a bloody narrow window.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.

    The Argentinian and Venezuelan armies await his call....
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I relied on Louise Mensch for the running commentary as she speaks both.

    She'd be a million times better than the current Leave bods.
    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
    EU Parliament President @MartinSchulz admits many colleagues say to him 'if the Brits want to leave, let them leave'.

    Remember what I said below about the press reporting on this subject being not necessarily objective or fair? If you're interested, here is the passage from the online transcript of the LSE speech by Martin Schultz

    "...This is why personally I am a strong supporter of the UK remaining in EU. And this, despite the fact - and I admit this quite frankly - that the British often test our patience and good will with their continuous demands. They are demanding. They push hard. They insist. They just don't let go. Many of my colleagues say behind closed doors: "Don't stop a rolling stone. If the Brits want to leave, let them leave." I do not support this line that just because the UK can be frustrating it would be in our interest to let it go. I believe we need the UK to make the EU stronger and better. And to make something stronger and better sometimes it's necessary to push hard and be critical. When the UK says it wants to make the EU more democratic, more transparent, more competitive and less bureaucratic - I am in!..."
    But then there is the speech Schulz gave in French and German to reporters, saying the English can stay but not at any price, our European parliament in Brussels will always be totally supreme, we can alter the benefits changes here, etc etc

    Oddly he didn't say any of this in English.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @CllrSMcCabe: John Swinney: Shedding jobs is better than 1p tax increase https://t.co/htznqgkoTu
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    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    He wants to live in Bolivia. Are they neutral here?

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.

    The Argentinian and Venezuelan armies await his call....
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Well, that's a popular view. Somewhere.
    Scott_P said:

    @CllrSMcCabe: John Swinney: Shedding jobs is better than 1p tax increase https://t.co/htznqgkoTu

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Scott_P said:

    @CllrSMcCabe: John Swinney: Shedding jobs is better than 1p tax increase https://t.co/htznqgkoTu

    Looks like the Tories are set for a thumping majority at the Holyrood elections.
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    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Reading the Telegraph "Global Disaster" coming piece is putting me in a surprisingly good mood.

    Like The Economist's covers, The Telegraph has a tendency to call things just after they've happened.

    The key point, to me, is that you could have written that piece in 1981. You would have pointed to coming defaults in Mexico and in other oil producing countries. You would have pointed out that Western banks (and particularly UK banks) had lent very heavily to resource producers. You would have mentioned that government debt loads had soared through the 1970s, and that economies were fragile from a decade of recession, with record unemployment in many places.

    In other words, you would have been very bearish. And you would have been very wrong.

    Despite almost every commodity exporter going bust between 1981 and the end of the 1980s, it turned out that developed world was in amazing shape. The 1980s and 1990s, except for a brief (but deep) recession in the early 1990s, were two decades of unparalleled growth.

    Fair enough but some things have changed since the 1980s.

    If every commodity exporter goes bust and 20% of their population decides to emigrate northwards what happens then ?

    If your country goes bust... nothing awful happens to the man on the street. Take Argentina, they went bust in 2001, and their economy boomed in the aftermath. The guys that lose out from debt defaults - by and large - are:

    (1) the shareholders of banks
    (2) investors in mutual fund products that own emerging market debt

    I'd also point out that Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar are all very sparsely populated. They're not going to be exporting people. (Nor, realistically, are they going to be going bust.)

    The big commodity exporters you'd worry about are all in LatAm: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, etc. And I guess they're more the US's problem than ours.
    Well that's something I never knew - Argentina being one of the great economic success stories of the 21st century.

    Why don't we all go bust and emulate Argentina's triumph.

    As to the population of oil exporters:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports

    Saudi 30m
    Russia 144m
    Iran 78m
    Iraq 37m
    Nigeria 182m

    I grant you that Kuwait has a small population.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If your country goes bust... nothing awful happens to the man on the street. Take Argentina, they went bust in 2001, and their economy boomed in the aftermath.

    Um..this is exactly wrong. We could gab about theory all day, but nobody on PB likes logic so I need to come out with an anecdote. I had a brief correspondence with an Argentinian supplier around 2011/12 and she was saying about how their price lists were only valid for three months max, inflation was so high she'd need to add on another 10-20%. Even ten years after the event, inflation on the ground was still way higher than we'd consider normal. It make business difficult to transact, and since damn-nearly everything these days is dependent in some way on imports and exports, it does affect everybody. It goes away eventually as things equalise but...well, you know what Keynes said about the long-term.

    That was a decade after the default, and after 10 years of mismanagement by Ms Kirchner.

    See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gdp
    Well, yes, but you could say the one begat the other: comfortable, stable countries don't elect Kirchners.

    However, if you could go to the very handy link you just provided and find the 1Y-5Y-10Y-MAX bar. Now press MAX and have a look at the line graph. You see a steep drop at the time of the crisis. It then starts to rise again quickly (the boom you are referring to) and returns to pre-crash levels by about 2007. Fine.

    But this neglects the stuff that wasn't produced during the crisis - it isn't until 2010 that the Argentinian economy had produced the same amount of stuff it would have produced if the crash had not occurred (and that assumes zero growth).

    People always neglect things like opportunity cost during a crash. Sorry, it's a hobbyhorse of mine: crashes always hurt, and people always get hurt in the process.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.

    Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-7325425

    Utter bollocks. If he goes the Tories elect a new leader and carry on. Simples.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    A second place Official Opposition place for Tories in Scotland will make me laugh longer and harder than Corbyn.

    It's surreal and epically amusing.
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @CllrSMcCabe: John Swinney: Shedding jobs is better than 1p tax increase https://t.co/htznqgkoTu

    Looks like the Tories are set for a thumping majority at the Holyrood elections.
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    Sensation endorsement for Jeb Bush, this could swing it for him.

    Martin Shkreli, the disgraced ex-CEO of Turing Pharmaceuticals, revealed on Friday night that he is backing the presidential candidacy of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pharma-bro-martin-shkreli-supports-jeb-bush_us_56b642d5e4b01d80b246864f?section=politics
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027
    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
    EU Parliament President @MartinSchulz admits many colleagues say to him 'if the Brits want to leave, let them leave'.

    Remember what I said below about the press reporting on this subject being not necessarily objective or fair? If you're interested, here is the passage from the online transcript of the LSE speech by Martin Schultz

    "...This is why personally I am a strong supporter of the UK remaining in EU. And this, despite the fact - and I admit this quite frankly - that the British often test our patience and good will with their continuous demands. They are demanding. They push hard. They insist. They just don't let go. Many of my colleagues say behind closed doors: "Don't stop a rolling stone. If the Brits want to leave, let them leave." I do not support this line that just because the UK can be frustrating it would be in our interest to let it go. I believe we need the UK to make the EU stronger and better. And to make something stronger and better sometimes it's necessary to push hard and be critical. When the UK says it wants to make the EU more democratic, more transparent, more competitive and less bureaucratic - I am in!..."
    But then there is the speech Schulz gave in French and German to reporters, saying the English can stay but not at any price, our European parliament in Brussels will always be totally supreme, we can alter the benefits changes here, etc etc

    Oddly he didn't say any of this in English.
    Gotta transcript? (genuine question)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    SeanT said:

    Leaked document shows Indy Ref 2 is off next month's party agenda despite SNP voters impatience for new vote

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/leaked-document-shows-indy-ref-7320330#ICID=sharebar_twitter#Jj0GehAMROycdMdg.97

    With oil at $30, colour me surprised, in shades of tartan. An indyref any time soon would lose 60/40 or more, and put the issue to bed for 25 years.

    The interesting question is whether the Nats would risk an indyref even if the UK votes LEAVE and Scotland votes REMAIN.

    I'm not sure they would. Because 1. it would be constitutionally almost impossible for the first few years, as the UK negotiates its divorce, and then, when the coast WAS clear, it would be by no means certain the Scots would go for divorce from England, because the choice would be even starker: stay with the UK and keep the £, or join the EU and adopt the euro, Schengen etc

    My guess is that despite hints otherwise, Sturgeon is praying for a REMAIN vote.

    One scenario which hasn't been discussed much is England, Wales and Northern Ireland collectively vote Leave narrowly and Scottish votes tip the overall balance in Remain's favour.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,408

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    OT can any pb-ers guess what this is. Classical. Ta ra ra bump ty ehh repeat

    It's bugging me and no idea of the tune.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    Well I don't know about 1 or 3. But I'm damn certain somebody French will do 2... ;)
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    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.

    You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.

    You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    edited February 2016

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.

    You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.

    You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
    My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.

    Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.

    I even voted Labour in a local election.

    (Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
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    Sunday Times source - Gove now “more out than in” and “heading towards the Brexit door”.

    This is good news, if true.

    Like you, I have a lot of respect for Gove. Not sure he can win over non Tories but within the party he is widely respected.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027
    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Putting words in the mouths of the dead is just pathetic and yuck.

    I think seant mentioned he doesn't know which way the Sunday Times may go on the EU coverage,well tomorrows front page might be given us hints ;-)

    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
    Sunday Times front page:
    Thatcher ‘would vote yes to EU’#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/gZabKi0BWf

    If that is the best reason they can come up with as a reason to vote to leave, they aren't that confident of their case. Really weak headline
    It doesn't matter. The point is to produce stories, day in and day out, to nudge the voter into voting LEAVE. Articles about European countries or the Council of Europe must be led by a statement from an Outer saying "This is why we must leave the EU", even if the EU is not actually involved. Any statement by an Inner must be ignored except for the response by an Outer, and the Outer's response must be the headline. A statement from one Outer and X Neutrals must be headlined as "(X+1) Outers say" even if the statement doesn't actually say that. And so on.

    This is how the British press operates. It's not a machine for producing truths, it's a machine for interpreting events that best serve their proprietors' interests, and they are very good at it.
    oh boo hoo. Go and start your own leftwing paper that trots out its own biassed gibberish. See if you can do as well as the Guardian, which does just that, and has lost half its circulation in five years.
    All of your response was about me or the Guardian.

    None of your response was whether what I said was true or not.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027

    OT can any pb-ers guess what this is. Classical. Ta ra ra bump ty ehh repeat

    It's bugging me and no idea of the tune.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eh0MC8LXM8
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ta-ra-ra_Boom-de-ay
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    To try to suppress nationhood and concentrate power at the centre of a European conglomerate would be highly damaging and would jeopardise the objectives we seek to achieve. Europe will be stronger precisely because it has France as France, Spain as Spain, Britain as Britain, each with its own customs, traditions and identity. It would be folly to try to fit them into some sort of identikit European personality...it is ironic that just when those countries such as the Soviet Union, which have tried to run everything from the centre, are learning that success depends on dispersing power and decisions away from the centre, there are some in the Community who seem to want to move in the opposite direction. We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels.

    - M. H. Thatcher, The Bruges Speech (20 September, 1988)
    Worth bearing in mind that both Tebbit and Lawson - her closest allies - were way more europhile than her during the 80s, although Tebbit quickly realised his mistake.

    Hell, even Farage was with it until he realised the implications of the Single European Act.

    No question whatsoever she would be for Leave today.
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    viewcode said:

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    Well I don't know about 1 or 3. But I'm damn certain somebody French will do 2... ;)
    Francois Hollande saying he wants a Brexit could swing it for me.
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    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was tonight urged to go on a war footing to fight a General Election this year.

    Senior Labour MP Toby Perkins believes David Cameron will quit as PM whatever the outcome of the EU referendum , likely to be held in June.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-warned-prepare-labour-7325425

    Now Toby Perkins seems to be a nice person who posted at UKPR before he was elected.

    But how is he a 'Senior Labour MP' ?

    He was first elected in 2010 and led Liz Kendall leadership campaign.

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Best to ignore what anyone says about the EU Ref, I don't believe what Dave tells me and I certainly don't believe any of the Booers ..

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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Crikey, 48 Tory backbenchers said it was a good deal.
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    Charles Pole's reason for saying Lady Thatcher would vote for Remain is this

    The one thing I never heard her propose was Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. The reason was simple: her aim was to change it, not leave it.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    Ha! Many thanx

    Was reading a Sherlock story and he hummed it.
    viewcode said:

    OT can any pb-ers guess what this is. Classical. Ta ra ra bump ty ehh repeat

    It's bugging me and no idea of the tune.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eh0MC8LXM8
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ta-ra-ra_Boom-de-ay
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    You really just have to shake your head at those 48 Tory MPs who think that Cameron got a good deal. Vote Remain if you must, but have the honesty to say that the deal is a crock...
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027
    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
    EU Parliament President @MartinSchulz admits many colleagues say to him 'if the Brits want to leave, let them leave'.

    Remember what I said below about the press reporting on this subject being not necessarily objective or fair? If you're interested, here is the passage from the online transcript of the LSE speech by Martin Schultz

    "...This is why personally I am a strong supporter of the UK remaining in EU. And this, despite the fact - and I admit this quite frankly - that the British often test our patience and good will with their continuous demands. They are demanding. They push hard. They insist. They just don't let go. Many of my colleagues say behind closed doors: "Don't stop a rolling stone. If the Brits want to leave, let them leave." I do not support this line that just because the UK can be frustrating it would be in our interest to let it go. I believe we need the UK to make the EU stronger and better. And to make something stronger and better sometimes it's necessary to push hard and be critical. When the UK says it wants to make the EU more democratic, more transparent, more competitive and less bureaucratic - I am in!..."
    But then there is the speech Schulz gave in French and German to reporters, saying the English can stay but not at any price, our European parliament in Brussels will always be totally supreme, we can alter the benefits changes here, etc etc

    Oddly he didn't say any of this in English.
    Gotta transcript? (genuine question)
    No. Various twitter reports at the time. No reason to believe they are wrong. Schulz is known for being outspoken and provocative. He admits it.
    Plausible. He is a politician, after all.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    Charles Pole's reason for saying Lady Thatcher would vote for Remain is this

    The one thing I never heard her propose was Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. The reason was simple: her aim was to change it, not leave it.

    And, Charles, when the EU refuses to change?
  • Options

    To try to suppress nationhood and concentrate power at the centre of a European conglomerate would be highly damaging and would jeopardise the objectives we seek to achieve. Europe will be stronger precisely because it has France as France, Spain as Spain, Britain as Britain, each with its own customs, traditions and identity. It would be folly to try to fit them into some sort of identikit European personality...it is ironic that just when those countries such as the Soviet Union, which have tried to run everything from the centre, are learning that success depends on dispersing power and decisions away from the centre, there are some in the Community who seem to want to move in the opposite direction. We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels.

    - M. H. Thatcher, The Bruges Speech (20 September, 1988)
    Worth bearing in mind that both Tebbit and Lawson - her closest allies - were way more europhile than her during the 80s, although Tebbit quickly realised his mistake.

    Hell, even Farage was with it until he realised the implications of the Single European Act.

    No question whatsoever she would be for Leave today.
    I agree - not sure what Powell's been smokin' :)
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Mr Herdson. After your rather simplistic analysis earlier of Cruz/Trump/Rubio, you would do well to read this piece by Nate Cohn of the NYT. This is how you analyze the US primary nominations - performance against expectations based on the demographics of the state, not the head to head horse race status based on two atypical states. Think of it as how you analyze who will win a decathlon after the first two events.

    As you will see, on this basis, Cruz' win in Iowa flatters to deceive - it in fact shows that his chances of getting the nomination are next to zero.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/upshot/the-way-ted-cruz-won-in-iowa-suggests-trouble-ahead.html?_r=2
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    Charles Pole's reason for saying Lady Thatcher would vote for Remain is this

    The one thing I never heard her propose was Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. The reason was simple: her aim was to change it, not leave it.

    And, Charles, when the EU refuses to change?
    A very good piece by Pole.

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article1665381.ece
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,408
    viewcode said:

    OT can any pb-ers guess what this is. Classical. Ta ra ra bump ty ehh repeat

    It's bugging me and no idea of the tune.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eh0MC8LXM8
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ta-ra-ra_Boom-de-ay

    No I think it is this one
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZlbLj_nlJM
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    notme said:

    Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
    EU Parliament President @MartinSchulz admits many colleagues say to him 'if the Brits want to leave, let them leave'.

    They dont really want to leave, they would just like a few of the rules to be a bit more amenable to their dispensation.
    I wonder if Herr Schulz has asked any of those colleagues their thoughts on how to plug the budgetary gap.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,408
    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.
    Calm down. It's not self destructing. Cameron has been Tory leader for ten years, he is just reaching the inevitable end of all political careers: failure. Either it will be the failure of a referendum victory that turns sour, or the harsher failure of an actual referendum loss.

    His error of judgment on the deal was a symptom of his fading powers. He bought into the idea he was such a brilliant salesman he could sell a cup of cold sick.

    But he's just one politician. The Tories (Europe aside) are very united, moreover they can perceive a potentially serious and deadly enemy of Great Britain - the Far Left in power courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories won't go to pieces. They are patriots. They will stay in government and aim to win emphatixally in 2020.
    He is the key to the Cameroon project. If the Tories are to remain an electable and sane centre right party then he needs to be able to control his successor and it is slipping away from him fast.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027
    So that's 238 Conservative backbenchers
    66 out
    50 in
    12 don't know
    16 no comment
    94 did not respond
    ===
    238 total
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cameron resigning as PM this year doesn't mean there would be a general election, does it?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,468
    edited February 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Cameron resigning as PM this year doesn't mean there would be a general election, does it?

    There weren't elections in 1990 or 2007.
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    So that's 238 Conservative backbenchers
    66 out
    50 in
    12 don't know
    16 no comment
    94 did not respond
    ===
    238 total
    I wonder how many of the 50 are vassals of George Osborne.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Isn't it so marvellously bawdy.
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    OT can any pb-ers guess what this is. Classical. Ta ra ra bump ty ehh repeat

    It's bugging me and no idea of the tune.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eh0MC8LXM8
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ta-ra-ra_Boom-de-ay

    No I think it is this one
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZlbLj_nlJM
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ah, civic Nationalism at its finest...

    @AgentP22: Welcome to Nicola Sturgeon's Scotland. https://t.co/A3uaPY19RG
  • Options

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.

    You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.

    You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
    My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.

    Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.

    I even voted Labour in a local election.

    (Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
    Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.

    I think just voting in opposition to a group within the party you don't particularly like is a bit silly.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002


    Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.

    Voting leave to spite Dave or remain out of loyalty cry is plain daft. Shades of Clegg and the AV referendum. It's not something anyone should base their vote on.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,027
    AndyJS said:

    Cameron resigning as PM this year doesn't mean there would be a general election, does it?

    No. Precedent and FTPA suggest exactly the opposite. Barring anthrax attack, there will not be a GE this year.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    When's the New Hampshire debate tonight, I want to see the "Flamingo kid" put under a bit of heat...
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,023
    edited February 2016
    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.
    Calm down. It's not self destructing. Cameron has been Tory leader for ten years, he is just reaching the inevitable end of all political careers: failure. Either it will be the failure of a referendum victory that turns sour, or the harsher failure of an actual referendum loss.

    His error of judgment on the deal was a symptom of his fading powers. He bought into the idea he was such a brilliant salesman he could sell a cup of cold sick.

    But he's just one politician. The Tories (Europe aside) are very united, moreover they can perceive a potentially serious and deadly enemy of Great Britain - the Far Left in power courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories won't go to pieces. They are patriots. They will stay in government and aim to win emphatixally in 2020.
    He is the key to the Cameroon project. If the Tories are to remain an electable and sane centre right party then he needs to be able to control his successor and it is slipping away from him fast.
    Outside of the EU I am seriously not sure there is really anything the Tory party nor a fair proportion of those who have scarpered to UKIP disagree over. I can't really think of a single issue where there is disagreement of anything more than the degree of change (by which I mean there are some like me who think they have gone nowhere near far enough with austerity for example). I suspect that the homophobes are now as endangered as the federalists like Clark.

    If REMAIN win the Tory party will continue to fracture over the EU issue. If LEAVE win then no matter what side Cameron was on the party as a whole will unite. TSE should seriously be hoping for a LEAVE win.
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    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.

    You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.

    You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
    My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.

    Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.

    I even voted Labour in a local election.

    (Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
    Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.

    I think just voting in opposition to a group within the party you don't particularly like is a bit silly.
    See I view it as, whether we vote to Remain or Leave, the sun shall still shine, and the UK shall be a success inside or outside of the EU.

    I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.
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    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.
    Calm down. It's not self destructing. Cameron has been Tory leader for ten years, he is just reaching the inevitable end of all political careers: failure. Either it will be the failure of a referendum victory that turns sour, or the harsher failure of an actual referendum loss.

    His error of judgment on the deal was a symptom of his fading powers. He bought into the idea he was such a brilliant salesman he could sell a cup of cold sick.

    But he's just one politician. The Tories (Europe aside) are very united, moreover they can perceive a potentially serious and deadly enemy of Great Britain - the Far Left in power courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories won't go to pieces. They are patriots. They will stay in government and aim to win emphatixally in 2020.
    I was thinking about this earlier today. When you think about it, 'Europe' has troubled Cameron throughout that whole ten years and, whenever he's really let me down, it's been about the EU.

    He started by positioning himself as even *more* eurosceptic than David Davis, pledging to withdraw the Tories from the EPP, which he carried through. Then there was that 'cast iron' guarantee that fell to pieces days after the Lisbon Treaty.

    Then it was 'we won't let matters rest there', then the pledge to repatriate social and employment policy, then the giant EU rebellion of 2011, then the treaty veto (politically popular and nationally) then the EAW, then the Bloomberg speech (good), then the EU referendum promise, the promise to 'get what Britain needs'... The heavy hints on limiting EU migration and securing opt outs. But then the 'halved the bill' spin...

    His problem has been to pitch as a sympathetic eurosceptic but to never deliver very much on it. He's tried to ride both horses at the same time. I think it's that which has caused him the real problems.

    If he'd just been a shoulder-shrugging status-quo man, he'd never have been loved, but he might not have the resentment and discipline problems he now has.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997
    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.
    Calm down. It's not self destructing. Cameron has been Tory leader for ten years, he is just reaching the inevitable end of all political careers: failure. Either it will be the failure of a referendum victory that turns sour, or the harsher failure of an actual referendum loss.

    His error of judgment on the deal was a symptom of his fading powers. He bought into the idea he was such a brilliant salesman he could sell a cup of cold sick.

    But he's just one politician. The Tories (Europe aside) are very united, moreover they can perceive a potentially serious and deadly enemy of Great Britain - the Far Left in power courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories won't go to pieces. They are patriots. They will stay in government and aim to win emphatixally in 2020.
    He is the key to the Cameroon project. If the Tories are to remain an electable and sane centre right party then he needs to be able to control his successor and it is slipping away from him fast.
    The Tories will thrash a Corbyn-led Labour Party, regardless.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002


    I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.

    For England and Wales it is.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:


    I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.

    For England and Wales it is.
    Nah. 2020 will be even more important.

    The country will be voting on whether it wants to be led by Jeremy Corbyn, anything other than a comprehensive Tory victory is needed to repudiate the idea of Corbynism for a generation.

    Otherwise post 2020 the Tories will eventually feck up big style and we're going to have someone like Corbyn winning a general election.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:

    When's the New Hampshire debate tonight, I want to see the "Flamingo kid" put under a bit of heat...

    8:00 pm EST
  • Options

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.

    You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.

    You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
    My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.

    Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.

    I even voted Labour in a local election.

    (Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
    Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.

    I think just voting in opposition to a group within the party you don't particularly like is a bit silly.
    See I view it as, whether we vote to Remain or Leave, the sun shall still shine, and the UK shall be a success inside or outside of the EU.

    I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.
    Thanks. I view it that importantly because we might not get another vote for decades, which means decades without political control in this country over major swathes of policy and legislation.

    I make no call on what those policies should be if we have those powers returned. I just think people in this country should be able to decide and, hopefully, we can continue to debate them on here, knowing that the choice truly does rest with us.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,408
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    The Cameroon project is self destructing on Europe. It's tragic. If Gove backs out it is all over.
    Calm down. It's not self destructing. Cameron has been Tory leader for ten years, he is just reaching the inevitable end of all political careers: failure. Either it will be the failure of a referendum victory that turns sour, or the harsher failure of an actual referendum loss.

    His error of judgment on the deal was a symptom of his fading powers. He bought into the idea he was such a brilliant salesman he could sell a cup of cold sick.

    But he's just one politician. The Tories (Europe aside) are very united, moreover they can perceive a potentially serious and deadly enemy of Great Britain - the Far Left in power courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories won't go to pieces. They are patriots. They will stay in government and aim to win emphatixally in 2020.
    He is the key to the Cameroon project. If the Tories are to remain an electable and sane centre right party then he needs to be able to control his successor and it is slipping away from him fast.
    The Tories will thrash a Corbyn-led Labour Party, regardless.
    I don't believe that Corbyn will be the leader in 2020. Or McDonnell. Labour will come to their senses, especially if they think they have a chance. And they are being given one right now.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,680
    edited February 2016
    Unexpected discoveries to put you in a good mood, part 73:

    Discovering you placed (and forgot you placed) a £15 bet with Hills over 6 months ago on Rubio for Next President at 14/1.
  • Options

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.

    You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.

    You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
    My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.

    Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.

    I even voted Labour in a local election.

    (Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
    Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.

    I think just voting in opposition to a group within the party you don't particularly like is a bit silly.
    See I view it as, whether we vote to Remain or Leave, the sun shall still shine, and the UK shall be a success inside or outside of the EU.

    I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.
    Thanks. I view it that importantly because we might not get another vote for decades, which means decades without political control in this country over major swathes of policy and legislation.

    I make no call on what those policies should be if we have those powers returned. I just think people in this country should be able to decide and, hopefully, we can continue to debate them on here, knowing that the choice truly does rest with us.
    I think it is my eternal optimism about the UK that colours my judgement on these things, I see us as a great nation state in a globalised world, Remaining or Leaving won't affect that.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Pulpstar said:


    I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.

    For England and Wales it is.
    Nah. 2020 will be even more important.

    The country will be voting on whether it wants to be led by Jeremy Corbyn, anything other than a comprehensive Tory victory is needed to repudiate the idea of Corbynism for a generation.

    Otherwise post 2020 the Tories will eventually feck up big style and we're going to have someone like Corbyn winning a general election.
    Tosh.

    And here's why.

    Labour will inevitably get back into power, and as the next Labour leader is likely to be someone on the Labour left it is only a matter of time. Probably not 2020, perhaps 2025 - note Crosby's autoregressive component to the LN model.

    As such the 2020 GE is most likely to be the final GE for the Tories.

    Whereas the EU referendum is NOT a delaying referendum. It is an actual choice for the British population, and breaks from the inevitable Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory cycle that tends to take ~ 10-15 years or so on average.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    TONIGHT: Republican presidential candidates to face off in @ABC News #GOPDebate in New Hampshire at 8/7c https://t.co/NALC5ZOy66
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Unexpected discoveries to put you in a good mood, part 73:

    Discovering you placed (and forgot you placed) a £15 bet with Hills over 6 months ago on Rubio for Next President at 14/1.

    Hah, that improves the book a bit I guess for you :P

    Are you now a big fan of the Havana wonderboy ?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Unexpected discoveries to put you in a good mood, part 73:

    Discovering you placed (and forgot you placed) a £15 bet with Hills over 6 months ago on Rubio for Next President at 14/1.

    Also, reminds me of when I found some 33-1 betslips I'd forgotten about on Zac.
  • Options

    I've thought about it some more, there's only three things that will change my mind and make me back Remain

    i) Dave gets protection for the City of London and the Financial Services Industry

    ii) The French announce they want us to leave

    iii) The Tory Right use the referendum as a way of trying to topple Dave and undo the Cameroon project

    It will be (iii) that makes you vote Remain on the day IMHO.

    You talked a lot on here about voting for Clegg in Hallam last year in what was a straight Labour/LD fight and where only his continued leadership of the LDs would have allowed Cameron to stay in office at the head of a 2nd coalition. So voting Clegg was the only logical choice.

    You still couldn't help voting Tory on the day. At the end of the day, you are a party loyalist.
    My Dad voted for Clegg so I wouldn't have to.

    Party loyalist, pah, you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS.

    I even voted Labour in a local election.

    (Mostly because the Tory candidate was a complete bell end)
    Fair enough. I don't like being disloyal either but the future of this country is far bigger than the legacy of the political career of one man.

    I think just voting in opposition to a group within the party you don't particularly like is a bit silly.
    See I view it as, whether we vote to Remain or Leave, the sun shall still shine, and the UK shall be a success inside or outside of the EU.

    I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.
    Thanks. I view it that importantly because we might not get another vote for decades, which means decades without political control in this country over major swathes of policy and legislation.

    I make no call on what those policies should be if we have those powers returned. I just think people in this country should be able to decide and, hopefully, we can continue to debate them on here, knowing that the choice truly does rest with us.
    I think it is my eternal optimism about the UK that colours my judgement on these things, I see us as a great nation state in a globalised world, Remaining or Leaving won't affect that.
    I am optimistic about the UK; I am not about the EU.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I acknowledge I don't view the referendum as the most important thing this country will be voting on for a generation but many others do (such as you) and I respect that.

    For England and Wales it is.
    Nah. 2020 will be even more important.

    The country will be voting on whether it wants to be led by Jeremy Corbyn, anything other than a comprehensive Tory victory is needed to repudiate the idea of Corbynism for a generation.

    Otherwise post 2020 the Tories will eventually feck up big style and we're going to have someone like Corbyn winning a general election.
    Tosh.

    And here's why.

    Labour will inevitably get back into power, and as the next Labour leader is likely to be someone on the Labour left it is only a matter of time. Probably not 2020, perhaps 2025 - note Crosby's autoregressive component to the LN model.

    As such the 2020 GE is most likely to be the final GE for the Tories.

    Whereas the EU referendum is NOT a delaying referendum. It is an actual choice for the British population, and breaks from the inevitable Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory cycle that tends to take ~ 10-15 years or so on average.
    Maybe.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    @Thescreamingeagles And this is why you were absolutely SPOT ON not to vote for Corbyn in the Labour leadership contest. Not because he'll win 2020, but his and his acolytes can shape Labour going forward and then they can win 2025 :D
This discussion has been closed.