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TheScreamingEagles said:

Post election Survation poll


Headline Voting Intention:
CON 40%; LAB 31%; UKIP 12%; LD 6%; SNP 5%; GREEN 3%; OTHER 2%

LOL

HYUFD said:

Charles But as he would be leader anyway it would be the other way around, but as I said Umunna-Jarvis is the way forward

Not in @SouthamObserver's suggestion.

I'm rooting for Chuka. I think he'd be crap

Slackbladder said:

Laurie Penny just tweeted she doesn't have a problem with people writing 'f*** tory scum' on that statute.

The left have gone insane.

Laurie Penny is experiencing mental health issues. That tweet is a cry for help. Reach out to her. I mean it.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Post election Survation poll


Headline Voting Intention:
CON 40%; LAB 31%; UKIP 12%; LD 6%; SNP 5%; GREEN 3%; OTHER 2%

LOL

Suddenly on PB the polls are accurate.

Does anyone have a list of the biggest Con to Lab and Lab to Con swings between 1992 and 2015 ?

This is complicated by two sets of boundary changes.

Croydon North was notionally narrowly Conservative in 1992 and now has a Labour majority of 21,364 (39.9%).

Derbyshire South was notionally narrowly Labour in 1992 (on its boundaries at that time it was Conservative) and now has a Conservative majority of 11,471 (22.6%).

IanB2 said:

"can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?"

Very common, it happens to the LibDems all the time (for example the LibDem council results in Eastleigh last Thursday).

The focus of the national election for most people was "Cameron or Miliband?". Therefore it isn't surprising that there was a squeeze on other parties (the two-party percentage of the vote actually went up this time, bucking its long-term decline) which will affect the GE but not the local vote.

Further, the fact that UKIP-leaning voters can express their preference using the local ballot paper actually makes it easier to 'defect' to Tory or Labour with the other ballot. Walking back from the polling station knowing 'your party' got one of your votes is much easier than voting tactically for your second choice when there's only one vote to be cast.

Really appreciate this reply, thanks. I'm not surprised it happens to the LDs either.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Have just spat my drink out over my keyboard....

htps://twitter.com/mlilleker/status/597099261982076928

I see that twitter feed includes a story about how someone drawing a penis instead of a cross in side a candidate's box on a ballot form was counted as a valid vote. Excellent.

rottenborough said:

Flightpathl said:

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.

Sadly true.

Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed

Is there any test of Jervis' judgement to date? Do soldiers make good politicians? Ted Heath was mentioned in dispatches.

Ike won 2 terms.

James Callaghan was the last PM with military service, though I do not think he saw action. Denis Healey had quite a distinguished military service including the landings at Anzio.

I think that Edward Heath was the last PM to have combat experience, though Paddy Ashdown may be the most recent party leader to have been in combat.

HYUFD said:

FlightPathL Of course in Scotland the SNP won 50%, but if the threshold was UK wide they would have stood token candidates in England and Wales to add a few votes to the 4% they got across the UK and easily passed the threshold

Thanks for explaining the nuances of this 'fair' system of voting to me.

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Charles Rubbish, Miliband was Labour's IDS, Foot was Labour's Hague, Umunna is Labour's Obama

I didn't know Umunna was so into golf :-)

Having met him, he is slippery. Certainly smart, certainly much better performer than Miliband, but he makes Telfon Tony look like velcro...everything you expect from a former City lawyer.

I could just about stand Blair in his days, but Chukka comes across as a completely empty suit. Saville Row suit none the less, but vacuous inside.

Didn't he get caught editing his own Wiki page to describe himself as Britain's Obama?

Don't forget his love of oversized watches.

http://order-order.com/2013/05/01/chuka-and-his-comedy-over-sized-watches/

I would have thought Chuka being keen to avoid mixing with "trash" would go with a slightly less trashy choice of watch.

RobD said:

500 new councillors and 24 councils. Not a bad night. Oh..... and an overall majority in the Commons...

I think the tories were defending from a relatively good position based on gains the last time round. So it looks very good to me
I confess I only know (or think) this from a BBC piece that was pointing out what a potentially doubly disastrous election night it could be for Cameron.

AndreaParma_82 said:

Possibly under the spell of the stone industry lobby

FrancisUrquhart said:

Ed Stone
-------

It was the idea of Torsten Henricson-Bell, 32, the director of policy. A former Treasury economist, he wanted a version of Tony Blair’s pledge card which worked so well for Labour in the 1997 election.

‘Torsten thought we were not getting our policy ideas across, so he persuaded Ed to do the stone,’ said another Labour insider.

Axelrod, on a rare trip to London, enthusiastically signed off on the hubristic monument, having long championed the idea in the US of enshrining policy ideas in ‘stone tablets’. Tom Baldwin, one of Miliband’s media advisers, was also keen.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074175/Ed-writing-victory-speech-came-exit-poll-ANDREW-PIERCE-reflects-catastrophic-night-Labour-leader.html

Were they all drugs?

Perhaps 'the stone' will go to the same place that the crass Alan Partridge sent unsold copies of his biography to be pulped. Maybe Steve Coogan can drive it there.

another_richard said:

foxinsoxuk said:

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

Do want Chilcot to be published before or after Labour elect as leader someone who voted for Iraq?

@DPJHodges: Members of Ed's team begin debate on why Labour lost. First reason - Iraq. Blair won 05 election 2 years after Iraq. Ed lost 12 years after.

All the people who abandoned Labour because of Iraq were back voting for them last week.

Not true. I will not support Labour while it still has people like Alastair Campbell speaking for it.

Campbell was around in 1997 and 2001 yet you voted Labour.

He hadn't started a war at that point in time!

foxinsoxuk said:

another_richard said:

foxinsoxuk said:

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

Do want Chilcot to be published before or after Labour elect as leader someone who voted for Iraq?

@DPJHodges: Members of Ed's team begin debate on why Labour lost. First reason - Iraq. Blair won 05 election 2 years after Iraq. Ed lost 12 years after.

All the people who abandoned Labour because of Iraq were back voting for them last week.

Not true. I will not support Labour while it still has people like Alastair Campbell speaking for it.

Campbell was around in 1997 and 2001 yet you voted Labour.

He hadn't started a war at that point in time!

So? All you do there is confess to bad judgement.

foxinsoxuk said:

rottenborough said:

Flightpathl said:

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.

Sadly true.

Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed

Is there any test of Jervis' judgement to date? Do soldiers make good politicians? Ted Heath was mentioned in dispatches.

Ike won 2 terms.

James Callaghan was the last PM with military service, though I do not think he saw action. Denis Healey had quite a distinguished military service including the landings at Anzio.

I think that Edward Heath was the last PM to have combat experience, though Paddy Ashdown may be the most recent party leader to have been in combat.

Your mention of Ashdown shows that being in the Special Boat Service (never mind the Parachute Regiment) does not make you a clever or astute politician or statesman.

One of the best Generals of the American Civil War was US Grant. He was not simply a not a very good peacetime politician, he was not very good at almost literally anything that he attempted outside soldiering. But (and I really do not have the breath to argue the point with any dissenters) he was without a doubt a very very good soldier.

I believe that Willie Whitelaw won a MC as a tank commander. A great many future politicians had their views searingly affected by their wartime experiences, but most of them were not by choice soldiers.

Alistair said:

Dair said:

Alistair said:

Carnyx said:

calum said:

My stake money was £1,500 - my strategy was:

SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.

SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.

My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.

I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:

https://www.justgiving.com/Calum-Ferguson1/

Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.

Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...

I predict there will be very litlle value but who knows what will happen between now and then.

Opening prices for Orkney and Zetland will be interesting.

The betting question of 2016 is: was the SNP vote evenly split between Orkney and Shetland?

I imagine a lot of money to be made if you knew the answer to that question.

The SNP candidate was a Shetlander, and Orkney has a much higher proportion of non-scots incomers - but DYOR as usual

I love Sally's comment about The Speaker with its possible Freudian Slip in the MoS:

"Parliament needs him to be honest"

Heh.