I see Charlotte Church was protesting today in Cardiff at the democratic election of a Conservative Government. She said she was devastated, procliming that she is 'mad as hell and not going to take it anymore' Oh dearie me!
Might be a good idea if these people bugger off to Scotland.
Charles Rubbish, Miliband was Labour's IDS, Foot was Labour's Hague, Umunna is Labour's Obama
I didn't know Umunna was so into golf :-)
Having met him, he is slippery. Certainly smart, certainly much better performer than Miliband, but he makes Telfon Tony look like velcro...everything you expect from a former City lawyer.
I could just about stand Blair in his days, but Chukka comes across as a completely empty suit. Saville Row suit none the less, but vacuous inside.
Didn't he get caught editing his own Wiki page to describe himself as Britain's Obama?
Does anyone have a list of the biggest Con to Lab and Lab to Con swings between 1992 and 2015 ?
This is complicated by two sets of boundary changes.
Croydon North was notionally narrowly Conservative in 1992 and now has a Labour majority of 21,364 (39.9%).
Derbyshire South was notionally narrowly Labour in 1992 (on its boundaries at that time it was Conservative) and now has a Conservative majority of 11,471 (22.6%).
"can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?"
Very common, it happens to the LibDems all the time (for example the LibDem council results in Eastleigh last Thursday).
The focus of the national election for most people was "Cameron or Miliband?". Therefore it isn't surprising that there was a squeeze on other parties (the two-party percentage of the vote actually went up this time, bucking its long-term decline) which will affect the GE but not the local vote.
Further, the fact that UKIP-leaning voters can express their preference using the local ballot paper actually makes it easier to 'defect' to Tory or Labour with the other ballot. Walking back from the polling station knowing 'your party' got one of your votes is much easier than voting tactically for your second choice when there's only one vote to be cast.
Really appreciate this reply, thanks. I'm not surprised it happens to the LDs either.
Headline Voting Intention: CON 40%; LAB 31%; UKIP 12%; LD 6%; SNP 5%; GREEN 3%; OTHER 2%
Who on Earth paid for polls the day after the bloody big one the government conducted..??
Mail on Sunday.
LOL - I assume they have some sort of contract and didn't think to exclude this weekend. Alternately they ordered it when they were expecting a hung Parliament, in which case maybe it might have had some use.
Any reason they don't show changes on their last poll, apart from the pollster trying to avoid his own embarrassment?
I see that twitter feed includes a story about how someone drawing a penis instead of a cross in side a candidate's box on a ballot form was counted as a valid vote. Excellent.
Burnham is very popular amongst the rank and file. But to those not committed his fake sincerity is rather grating, a bit like Yvette. Even more the fact that he looks like he is always wearing makeup.
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Sadly true.
Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed
Is there any test of Jervis' judgement to date? Do soldiers make good politicians? Ted Heath was mentioned in dispatches.
Ike won 2 terms.
James Callaghan was the last PM with military service, though I do not think he saw action. Denis Healey had quite a distinguished military service including the landings at Anzio.
I think that Edward Heath was the last PM to have combat experience, though Paddy Ashdown may be the most recent party leader to have been in combat.
I'd do it the other way round. But under Labour rules one or the other has to be a woman, I think. I'd happily see Kendall or Creasy alongside Jarvis. Creasy and Umunna together would not work. Kendall in charge and Umunna as deputy might be OK.
I have absolutely no evidence to point to, but my gut says that Umunna would find it hard to work for a woman.
I agree with Kendal - good thinker. Umunna remind me too much of African politicians I used to meet in sub-Saharan Africa when working on World Bank projects. They were too proud of their own importance, looked down on their fellow Africans as inferior and treated them almost as slaves and all had a healthy Swiss Bank Account.
Labour needs leadees with the width of thought like Hoey and Field and have a similar backgrounds - not sure where they will find them
FlightPathL Of course in Scotland the SNP won 50%, but if the threshold was UK wide they would have stood token candidates in England and Wales to add a few votes to the 4% they got across the UK and easily passed the threshold
Thanks for explaining the nuances of this 'fair' system of voting to me.
Do want Chilcot to be published before or after Labour elect as leader someone who voted for Iraq?
@DPJHodges: Members of Ed's team begin debate on why Labour lost. First reason - Iraq. Blair won 05 election 2 years after Iraq. Ed lost 12 years after.
All the people who abandoned Labour because of Iraq were back voting for them last week.
Not true. I will not support Labour while it still has people like Alastair Campbell speaking for it.
Charles Rubbish, Miliband was Labour's IDS, Foot was Labour's Hague, Umunna is Labour's Obama
I didn't know Umunna was so into golf :-)
Having met him, he is slippery. Certainly smart, certainly much better performer than Miliband, but he makes Telfon Tony look like velcro...everything you expect from a former City lawyer.
I could just about stand Blair in his days, but Chukka comes across as a completely empty suit. Saville Row suit none the less, but vacuous inside.
Didn't he get caught editing his own Wiki page to describe himself as Britain's Obama?
According to Laurie Penny the Tories want to 'destroy' national health care and education. Even for baby eaters, I'm not sure why Tories would want to destroy such things.
In all seriousness, is it really that hard for people to say (or believe) that the outcome of Tory policies would be, in their opinion, to destroy those things, while acknowledging that of course they don't want to destroy them, just change them? It's just absurd when partisan hacks paint their opponents as wanting clearly insane things, rather than just saying they will cause those things.
500 new councillors and 24 councils. Not a bad night. Oh..... and an overall majority in the Commons...
I think the tories were defending from a relatively good position based on gains the last time round. So it looks very good to me I confess I only know (or think) this from a BBC piece that was pointing out what a potentially doubly disastrous election night it could be for Cameron.
Do want Chilcot to be published before or after Labour elect as leader someone who voted for Iraq?
@DPJHodges: Members of Ed's team begin debate on why Labour lost. First reason - Iraq. Blair won 05 election 2 years after Iraq. Ed lost 12 years after.
All the people who abandoned Labour because of Iraq were back voting for them last week.
Not true. I will not support Labour while it still has people like Alastair Campbell speaking for it.
Campbell was around in 1997 and 2001 yet you voted Labour.
It was the idea of Torsten Henricson-Bell, 32, the director of policy. A former Treasury economist, he wanted a version of Tony Blair’s pledge card which worked so well for Labour in the 1997 election.
‘Torsten thought we were not getting our policy ideas across, so he persuaded Ed to do the stone,’ said another Labour insider.
Axelrod, on a rare trip to London, enthusiastically signed off on the hubristic monument, having long championed the idea in the US of enshrining policy ideas in ‘stone tablets’. Tom Baldwin, one of Miliband’s media advisers, was also keen.
Perhaps 'the stone' will go to the same place that the crass Alan Partridge sent unsold copies of his biography to be pulped. Maybe Steve Coogan can drive it there.
Do want Chilcot to be published before or after Labour elect as leader someone who voted for Iraq?
@DPJHodges: Members of Ed's team begin debate on why Labour lost. First reason - Iraq. Blair won 05 election 2 years after Iraq. Ed lost 12 years after.
All the people who abandoned Labour because of Iraq were back voting for them last week.
Not true. I will not support Labour while it still has people like Alastair Campbell speaking for it.
Campbell was around in 1997 and 2001 yet you voted Labour.
Do we or will we get e.g. from Exit Poll, any information on ethnicity? I am interested in something Crosby said the long video and I would be interested to see if it came to pass.
No, that was one of the things Nate Silver was complaining about. You never get any detailed information from the UK exit poll, in contrast to those in the USA.
The first big problem the pollsters have for 2020 is sorting out false recall.
Do want Chilcot to be published before or after Labour elect as leader someone who voted for Iraq?
@DPJHodges: Members of Ed's team begin debate on why Labour lost. First reason - Iraq. Blair won 05 election 2 years after Iraq. Ed lost 12 years after.
All the people who abandoned Labour because of Iraq were back voting for them last week.
Not true. I will not support Labour while it still has people like Alastair Campbell speaking for it.
Campbell was around in 1997 and 2001 yet you voted Labour.
I'd do it the other way round. But under Labour rules one or the other has to be a woman, I think. I'd happily see Kendall or Creasy alongside Jarvis. Creasy and Umunna together would not work. Kendall in charge and Umunna as deputy might be OK.
I have absolutely no evidence to point to, but my gut says that Umunna would find it hard to work for a woman.
I agree with Kendal - good thinker. Umunna remind me too much of African politicians I used to meet in sub-Saharan Africa when working on World Bank projects. They were too proud of their own importance, looked down on their fellow Africans as inferior and treated them almost as slaves and all had a healthy Swiss Bank Account.
Labour needs leadees with the width of thought like Hoey and Field and have a similar backgrounds - not sure where they will find them
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Sadly true.
Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed
Is there any test of Jervis' judgement to date? Do soldiers make good politicians? Ted Heath was mentioned in dispatches.
Ike won 2 terms.
James Callaghan was the last PM with military service, though I do not think he saw action. Denis Healey had quite a distinguished military service including the landings at Anzio.
I think that Edward Heath was the last PM to have combat experience, though Paddy Ashdown may be the most recent party leader to have been in combat.
Your mention of Ashdown shows that being in the Special Boat Service (never mind the Parachute Regiment) does not make you a clever or astute politician or statesman.
One of the best Generals of the American Civil War was US Grant. He was not simply a not a very good peacetime politician, he was not very good at almost literally anything that he attempted outside soldiering. But (and I really do not have the breath to argue the point with any dissenters) he was without a doubt a very very good soldier.
I believe that Willie Whitelaw won a MC as a tank commander. A great many future politicians had their views searingly affected by their wartime experiences, but most of them were not by choice soldiers.
SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.
SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.
My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.
I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:
Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.
Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
I predict there will be very litlle value but who knows what will happen between now and then.
Opening prices for Orkney and Zetland will be interesting.
The betting question of 2016 is: was the SNP vote evenly split between Orkney and Shetland?
I imagine a lot of money to be made if you knew the answer to that question.
The SNP candidate was a Shetlander, and Orkney has a much higher proportion of non-scots incomers - but DYOR as usual
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Sadly true.
Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed
Is there any test of Jervis' judgement to date? Do soldiers make good politicians? Ted Heath was mentioned in dispatches.
Ike won 2 terms.
James Callaghan was the last PM with military service, though I do not think he saw action. Denis Healey had quite a distinguished military service including the landings at Anzio.
I think that Edward Heath was the last PM to have combat experience, though Paddy Ashdown may be the most recent party leader to have been in combat.
Your mention of Ashdown shows that being in the Special Boat Service (never mind the Parachute Regiment) does not make you a clever or astute politician or statesman.
One of the best Generals of the American Civil War was US Grant. He was not simply a not a very good peacetime politician, he was not very good at almost literally anything that he attempted outside soldiering. But (and I really do not have the breath to argue the point with any dissenters) he was without a doubt a very very good soldier.
I believe that Willie Whitelaw won a MC as a tank commander. A great many future politicians had their views searingly affected by their wartime experiences, but most of them were not by choice soldiers.
Hat eating should be a piece of cake for Paddy then
Comments
Didn't he get caught editing his own Wiki page to describe himself as Britain's Obama?
I'm rooting for Chuka. I think he'd be crap
Mr. England, personally, I blame the electorate for this result.
Mr. Slackbladder, what do you mean 'gone'?
This is complicated by two sets of boundary changes.
Croydon North was notionally narrowly Conservative in 1992 and now has a Labour majority of 21,364 (39.9%).
Derbyshire South was notionally narrowly Labour in 1992 (on its boundaries at that time it was Conservative) and now has a Conservative majority of 11,471 (22.6%).
Penny on graffiti on War memorials.
Good, I like happiness.
Any reason they don't show changes on their last poll, apart from the pollster trying to avoid his own embarrassment?
I think that Edward Heath was the last PM to have combat experience, though Paddy Ashdown may be the most recent party leader to have been in combat.
Labour needs leadees with the width of thought like Hoey and Field and have a similar backgrounds - not sure where they will find them
http://order-order.com/2013/05/01/chuka-and-his-comedy-over-sized-watches/
I would have thought Chuka being keen to avoid mixing with "trash" would go with a slightly less trashy choice of watch.
In all seriousness, is it really that hard for people to say (or believe) that the outcome of Tory policies would be, in their opinion, to destroy those things, while acknowledging that of course they don't want to destroy them, just change them? It's just absurd when partisan hacks paint their opponents as wanting clearly insane things, rather than just saying they will cause those things.
I confess I only know (or think) this from a BBC piece that was pointing out what a potentially doubly disastrous election night it could be for Cameron.
That's like recording University Challenge and watching it back with friends pretending you haven't seen it before...
One of the best Generals of the American Civil War was US Grant. He was not simply a not a very good peacetime politician, he was not very good at almost literally anything that he attempted outside soldiering. But (and I really do not have the breath to argue the point with any dissenters) he was without a doubt a very very good soldier.
I believe that Willie Whitelaw won a MC as a tank commander. A great many future politicians had their views searingly affected by their wartime experiences, but most of them were not by choice soldiers.
"Parliament needs him to be honest"
Heh.