Labour certainly need to think long and hard before they select their new leader, however, not convinced (as suggested below) that the privately educated Hon Tristram Hunt is the way to go.
Somebody was talking earlier about Stoke on Trent and Labour not doing very well..In the council elections.
The overall make-up of the council is 29 Labour, 20 Conservative, four Liberal Democrat, four Independent, two UKIP and one Green. Results from the local election mean no group is in overall control.
This is Stoke on f##king Trent....mines, pottery, etc i.e easy Labour. I believe the likes of Bet365 are now a big employers in the area, but there has to be more going on than that.
I just don't see how it isn't going to be far harder for labour in England in five years. New boundaries. Balanced budgets. More widespread prosperity. Big increases for the nhs. A looser relationship with Europe that settles the problem for some soft kippers. They could choose who they want and still get hammered.
I'd do it the other way round. But under Labour rules one or the other has to be a woman, I think. I'd happily see Kendall or Creasy alongside Jarvis. Creasy and Umunna together would not work. Kendall in charge and Umunna as deputy might be OK.
When considering a prospective Labour leader, lets not forget the unions.
It will be interesting to see if Unite get Jim Murphy's head on a pole.
Someone posited on election night their might be a schism. A sufficiently 'Blairite' new Labour leader might just convince Len to start Unite, The Party instead.
SLAB has a Blairite leader -- Jim Murphy. It now holds as many Scottish seats as it has Blairite leaders: one. Blairism is no panacea.
"UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted."
That's exactly what happened in 1975. I was a strong Europhile then, but even I thought the whole thing was a farce.
One of the signs that it is genuine change is if it actually requires treaty change. I was speaking to someone who works in the EC last night, and he said that Juncker's plan was to restrict any changes to a mere memorandum, as that could be easily reversible by a future Labour leader.
'If anyone has seen IOS still wandering around clutching hundreds of Vote Labour leaflets, can you tell him he can come out now, the war is over.'
I would have thought having you letterbox constantly filled with leaflets was a major turn -off for a lot of voters not to mention people banging on your front door when your in the middle of your favorite TV program..
Personally I think the so called ground war is old hat and it's the air war that's relevant these days.
I just don't see how it isn't going to be far harder for labour in England in five years. New boundaries. Balanced budgets. More widespread prosperity. Big increases for the nhs. A looser relationship with Europe that settles the problem for some soft kippers. They could choose who they want and still get hammered.
You forgot no more boom and bust and people never having it so good.
The election is over you can stop spouting the propaganda.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but there are some really interesting snippets out there. The Guardian story about Tories spending crazy money on Facebook and a C4 news segment from 8 month ago talking about Messina / Crosby locked in CCHQ from dawn until dusk (contrast that to Labour "guru" who did f##k all here in the UK).
Yes. Pundits who clearly failed to see any of this coming will maintain their lucrative TV careers explaining how it all worked behind the scenes but nobody could talk about it...
If you have ever seen the film 'Wag the Dog', imagine the talking heads on TV in the final scenes
Yes good points. All the pundits nodding sagely when someone says 'we never saw this coming'. When in fact they get paid a fortune to see it coming. This is why 'late swing' gets such currency. Did any pundit or reporter ever go out and actually question the polls or try to understand how they (supposedly) work?
As an aside... does anyone want to guess just how many SNP MPs will turn up to Westminster on a regular basis to vote? Who will be the first SNP MP to be involved in a scandal?
BTW Put your winnings if any into the Westminster take away chips rice and curry market... ;-)
I just don't see how it isn't going to be far harder for labour in England in five years. New boundaries. Balanced budgets. More widespread prosperity. Big increases for the nhs. A looser relationship with Europe that settles the problem for some soft kippers. They could choose who they want and still get hammered.
Given Osborne missed targets regarding the deficit, I wouldn't say balanced budgets are guaranteed at all. And given that we're about have austerity imposed, it's also incredibly unlikely they'll be more widespread prosperity, either. The boundaries will make things harder, but then that's something Labour will have to overcome if it wants to win - they would have changed at some point anyway. Arguably the EU ref also settles the UKIP threat to Labour, too.
That was me. Len leading Unite and a few of the other Jurassic unions off to form Real Labour would be a God send over the medium to long term, even if it was a real pain in the short term.
This guy might be a candidate
The most embarrassing part of the election? Seeing people mistake Labour for a left-wing party
From their stances on Trident and immigration to their support of extraordinary rendition, their progressive credentials are a joke
This article was originally published on Consented,a multi-media platform for those who aren’t accurately represented by the mainstream
Surely in its own terms the piece is now a failure, as by being included on the mainstream media (well, Independent), it is no longer edgy, but itself part of the mainstream.
"UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted."
That's exactly what happened in 1975. I was a strong Europhile then, but even I thought the whole thing was a farce.
Perhaps unwarranted was a poor choice of words. I meant closer to 'unduly pessimistic'. The same tactics would apply, but I think BOO would overcome it. UKIP do not, they think the public would be fooled and they'd lose.
The EU referendum will be a No vote. (The same shy voters who voted Tory on Thursday will vote No because they'll be worried about the consequences for business and their pension etc.) But I wonder if Ukip or another party can/will benefit from the vote in the way that the SNP benefited from the referendum?
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What Angela Merkel wants is no more important than what Victor Ponta or Boyko Borissov want. Whatever deal is made still has to be passed by every single one of the EU members. If any one of them decides to block it then the deal is off.
Who realistically thinks there will be deal? Merkel and co will say 'like it or lump it'...
Cameron will offer the referendum pretty much on how things stand now. This renegotiation is just a 'ruse'.
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Sadly true.
Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed
Brown brought Scotland to the party. Ed was even more toxic in Scotland than he was in England.
But the leader only gets you so far, though. There has to be a level of credibility and cohesiveness about the policies too; which is why you don't want to be advocating a mansion tax or an energy price freeze. A better leader is not a substitute for a new direction, but it is a very good place from which to start the process.
Whoever leads Labour will not succeed unless the party is seen to embrace aspiration, the profit motive and Englishness as an identity. That does not preclude advocating social justice, solidarity and equality of opportunity, but it does mean showing you understand the modern world and can operate within it. Ed actually identified some major problems, what he could not do was ever find solutions. But that's what Labour needs.
Well said Mr Observer. It will be fascinating to see how things play out in the Labour party over the coming months.
Incidentally is there a protest/riot in Trafalgar square outside Downing Street going on at the moment?
Yes
@JournoStephen: There's a student mob outside Downing Street protesting the outcome of a democratic election. Tuition fees are nowhere near high enough.
First part of Twickenham declaration: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tx4gNwsEZKk
Second part: www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFPV5q_vvhg
I can't explain why the whole thing couldn't be uploaded in one video apart from the idiocy of the uploaders.
I am afraid I cannot go out and deliberately watch it. My resultant emotions would only make me feel bad afterwards. Cable deserves all he gets. Anyone want to predict when is first outing will be on Brillo's couch?
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
This seems to be invented in your head - as the idiotic claims that "it was the same if we didn't join the Euro". It's invented fantasy on your part.
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
The EEA criteria does not include Schengen membersship. And of course the only person making stuff up is you. If you like we can link to lots of letters from heads of big companies in the UK saying they would either leave or would end investment in the UK if we did not join the Euro. Indeed I posted a link to one such letter only 3 or 4 weeks ago.
Stop being a Europhile fantasist and start looking at the real evidence.
Labour certainly need to think long and hard before they select their new leader, however, not convinced (as suggested below) that the privately educated Hon Tristram Hunt is the way to go.
Why unearth would Labour choose Tim-Nice-But-Dim as its Leader?
They need somebody who looks like they have at least seen the inside of a Working Men's Club. Part of the selection process should be the ability to call a whole evening of bingo...
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Despite getting a hammering Labour did get 9.3 million votes. I have not yet seen any analysis that demonstrates it lost a lot of working class votes to UKIP, though I accept that may well have been the case in some places. But clearly in places such as the North East and Merseyside - which are not stocked full of metropolitan luvvies and ethnic minorities - it retained and even built on such support. Put it this way, if Ed can get 9.3 million votes, despite losing Scotland, what could a normal kind of leader get?
That does not mean, of course, that Labour does not need a root and branch review of everything - it clearly does and it clearly needs to become more business friendly, more aspiration-friendly and more relaxed about Englishness - but it does mean there is hope. The Tories will have a new leader next time, they will have had an EU referendum, there are five years of events and, as likely as not, a recession to get through. In short, a hell of a lot can change. And as we have seen, under FPTP in a multi-party system slight shifts can make a very big difference in seat numbers.
Failing Jarvis, I'd go for Kendall or maybe Creasey - someone not identified with the last government and someone with the ability to speak to non-Labour parts of the electorate. Chukka, I am afraid, is too London and too remote form middle England. he would lead Labour to defeat in 2020, without doubt.
What I found astounding was the way Labour didn't seem to realise that the very fact Ed was so popular in places like Islington was evidence that he would go down badly in the small town English marginals. What Labour needs is a leader that isn't loved in Islington, because Islington voters will vote Labour anyway. Talk about living in a bubble...
I tipped Jarvis and Kendal back in March. There's a strong chance it'll be Chukka or Yvette but the value bet was on these two IMHO. I also put money on Hunt way back in 2013 at 34/1 when he first got into shadow cabinet, but don't think that'll happen now.
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Sadly true.
Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed
Is there any test of Jervis' judgement to date? Do soldiers make good politicians? Ted Heath was mentioned in dispatches.
Incidentally is there a protest/riot in Trafalgar square outside Downing Street going on at the moment?
What are they protesting? Democracy? Anger at FPTP?
Or is it these people, who in addition to not understanding the constitutional conventions, didn't notice the result?
A post-election protest has been planned to oust David Cameron from power by a group claiming that the Conservatives are planning to “occupy Downing Street” even if they do not win a majority. The event, organised by anti-austerity group the People’s Assembly, is scheduled to take place on Saturday outside No 10.
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Despite getting a hammering Labour did get 9.3 million votes. I have not yet seen any analysis that demonstrates it lost a lot of working class votes to UKIP, though I accept that may well have been the case in some places. But clearly in places such as the North East and Merseyside - which are not stocked full of metropolitan luvvies and ethnic minorities - it retained and even built on such support. Put it this way, if Ed can get 9.3 million votes, despite losing Scotland, what could a normal kind of leader get?
That does not mean, of course, that Labour does not need a root and branch review of everything - it clearly does and it clearly needs to become more business friendly, more aspiration-friendly and more relaxed about Englishness - but it does mean there is hope. The Tories will have a new leader next time, they will have had an EU referendum, there are five years of events and, as likely as not, a recession to get through. In short, a hell of a lot can change. And as we have seen, under FPTP in a multi-party system slight shifts can make a very big difference in seat numbers.
Failing Jarvis, I'd go for Kendall or maybe Creasey - someone not identified with the last government and someone with the ability to speak to non-Labour parts of the electorate. Chukka, I am afraid, is too London and too remote form middle England. he would lead Labour to defeat in 2020, without doubt.
What I found astounding was the way Labour didn't seem to realise that the very fact Ed was so popular in places like Islington was evidence that he would go down badly in the small town English marginals. What Labour needs is a leader that isn't loved in Islington, because Islington voters will vote Labour anyway. Talk about living in a bubble...
Or the assumption that despite EdM being utterly uninterested in his own constituency the sort of people who live in such places would automatically support EdM's view of the world.
Successful politicians need empathy towards people different to themselves.
'UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted - a lot of people and media and some politicians would break ranks to challenge that, so I think people will vote Out if asked.'
Despite what the EU and various commentators were saying before the election I think Cameron will get a good deal now he has a majority plus the size of the UKIP vote.
Just look at the pains Junker & co are taking to try and keep bankrupt Greece in the Euro. Germany is the major player here and will not want the UK outside the EU.
Incidentally is there a protest/riot in Trafalgar square outside Downing Street going on at the moment?
What are they protesting? Democracy? Anger at FPTP?
Or is it these people, who in addition to not understanding the constitutional conventions, didn't notice the result?
A post-election protest has been planned to oust David Cameron from power by a group claiming that the Conservatives are planning to “occupy Downing Street” even if they do not win a majority. The event, organised by anti-austerity group the People’s Assembly, is scheduled to take place on Saturday outside No 10.
Just catching up on the #ThanetRigged Hoohaa, can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?
Incidentally is there a protest/riot in Trafalgar square outside Downing Street going on at the moment?
What are they protesting? Democracy? Anger at FPTP?
Or is it these people, who in addition to not understanding the constitutional conventions, didn't notice the result?
A post-election protest has been planned to oust David Cameron from power by a group claiming that the Conservatives are planning to “occupy Downing Street” even if they do not win a majority. The event, organised by anti-austerity group the People’s Assembly, is scheduled to take place on Saturday outside No 10.
[24 hours since winning the election. First #ToriesOutNow protest in London. Heavy police presence throughout]
Interesting. Which part of democracy do these people not understand?
The part where 37% is considered a legitimate governing majority.
Do they support the 51% who voted either Tory or UKIP? Or the 59% who voted Tory, UKIP or LD? Those proportions voted for parties in favour of austerity in one form or another.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Oh really ? Which ones ?
Oh, just for an example. Nissan.
Its a fair point. Renault-Nissan-AvtoVAZ have 36 plants all over Europe and Russia. These things would not happen overnight but the trend would be inevitable. Plus jobs which might come here will go somewhere else.
Then maybe they might not. 'Might' not. Then again when you are playing Russian Roulette you might not blow your head off.
So all you have is more Europhile scaremongering then. Just like your claims there would be no real difference between EU and EEA membership. Why do you bother to post this rubbish when you clearly know nothing about it?
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Sadly true.
Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed
Is there any test of Jervis' judgement to date? Do soldiers make good politicians? Ted Heath was mentioned in dispatches.
[24 hours since winning the election. First #ToriesOutNow protest in London. Heavy police presence throughout]
Interesting. Which part of democracy do these people not understand?
The part where 37% is considered a legitimate governing majority.
Those protestors would be very happy with a Labour majority on 37%, I am sure (or at least if an actual anti-Austerity party won a majority on that amount). The odds on them sharing the concerns about our electoral system, when it does produce a lefty result, are pretty low I would say. Not worth protesting about at least, I feel confident in saying.
Just catching up on the #ThanetRigged Hoohaa, can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?
I guess lots of UKIP inclined voters thought it safe to vote UKIP in the locals, but decided to switch to Con in the national election for fear of an EdM led government.
Just noticed that Ed's vote was up just 5% in Doncaster North, which I think is one of the lowest increases for a party leader the first time they contest a seat after being elected. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000669
Well done to Lynton Crosby-the win was classic Lynton:
Pick a straw man(the SNP),scare-monger and drive up your turnout.(He did this before with the immigrant boat in Australia.)
This was doubly effective because the SNP picked up on it and blared their anti-austerity agenda from the rooftops.
Beautiful politicking ending with the Tories and SNP winning and Miliband looking like an idiot.
I think the left might have to reconsider Crosby a bit. I went and did a bit of digging like the Guardian and it seems that the thought that he is JUST a scare monger dates back to one election campaign in Australia over illegal immigrants. He then tried that approach with Howard in the UK and it didn't work.
However, since then he has run lots of campaigns including Boris and Tories this time. When you do a bit of reading / watching videos it is clear he is much sophisticated operator than is the characterized and his approach worked on a lot more than just the last minute SNP scare. The Tories with him and Messina have been working around the clock for over a year on lots of stuff below the water line.
I think the left might have to reconsider Cameron a bit too!
Paul Richards @Labourpaul · May 8 Cameron has won the first Conservative majority for 23 years and vanquished three party leaders. Should we take him seriously yet?
He vanquished 3 in one day. He's vanquished about 9 in total.
As someone who didn't take him seriously, I do now. He's vanquished 4 of the 5 largest pa
When considering a prospective Labour leader, lets not forget the unions.
It will be interesting to see if Unite get Jim Murphy's head on a pole.
Someone posited on election night their might be a schism. A sufficiently 'Blairite' new Labour leader might just convince Len to start Unite, The Party instead.
That was me. Len leading Unite and a few of the other Jurassic unions off to form Real Labour would be a God send over the medium to long term, even if it was a real pain in the short term.
I would not be at all surprised. If it happens in the next two years or so it will create a very interesting situation in 2020 where the Conservatives would move forwards in Lab/Con marginals and UKIP (if still around) would likely win a few WWC Lab constituencies and the rest of the Lab seats splitting between the two parties.
In my experience people appreciate that you take the trouble to call on them. This can be important in local elections where a personal following can be important.
Incidentally is there a protest/riot in Trafalgar square outside Downing Street going on at the moment?
What are they protesting? Democracy? Anger at FPTP?
Or is it these people, who in addition to not understanding the constitutional conventions, didn't notice the result?
A post-election protest has been planned to oust David Cameron from power by a group claiming that the Conservatives are planning to “occupy Downing Street” even if they do not win a majority. The event, organised by anti-austerity group the People’s Assembly, is scheduled to take place on Saturday outside No 10.
What do they want, PR? Tory + UKIP would still get basically a majority...not sure they would be happy with that either.
They are classic 'I don't like it so it is illegitimate' protestors it seems. Gods, that sort of thing makes me want to retroactively vote Tory just to mess with them.
SO The problem with Labour rules is they do not prevent men standing for and winning both the leadership and Deputy leadership as far as I can tell, but any of the combinations you mention would be an improvement on Miliband-Harman.
Somebody was talking earlier about Stoke on Trent and Labour not doing very well..In the council elections.
The overall make-up of the council is 29 Labour, 20 Conservative, four Liberal Democrat, four Independent, two UKIP and one Green. Results from the local election mean no group is in overall control.
This is Stoke on f##king Trent....mines, pottery, etc i.e easy Labour. I believe the likes of Bet365 are now a big employers in the area, but there has to be more going on than that.
Stoke-on-Trent may end up as the English version of Glasgow if Labour aren't careful.
Just noticed that Ed's vote was up just 5% in Doncaster North, which I think is one of the lowest increases for a party leader the first time they contest a seat after being elected. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000669
Did he get over 50%? If so isam owes me beer and lunch!
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Oh really ? Which ones ?
Oh, just for an example. Nissan.
Its a fair point. Renault-Nissan-AvtoVAZ have 36 plants all over Europe and Russia. These things would not happen overnight but the trend would be inevitable. Plus jobs which might come here will go somewhere else.
Then maybe they might not. 'Might' not. Then again when you are playing Russian Roulette you might not blow your head off.
So all you have is more Europhile scaremongering then. Just like your claims there would be no real difference between EU and EEA membership. Why do you bother to post this rubbish when you clearly know nothing about it?
scaremongering is all they have.
paradoxically the biggest antidote to scaremongering comes from the EU, we can safely vote out since the EU will ask us to vote again until we get the right answer.
so vote out for a better deal it's your patriotic duty to do so.
Dadge You are right on UKIP, but I think it will be shy 'In' voters who allow In to scrape home, just as shy 'No' voters kept the UK in the union and shy Tories backed Cameron. In the EU referendum it will be 'Out' who are most vocal and aggressive, as 'Yes' was in Scotland and Labour and the Left were in the General Election
Btw, among all the jaw-dropping results have just caught up with Brent Central. The LDs were reduced to 3,937 (8.37%) in a seat that they won last time out. That strikes me as some kind of record - heaviest defeat ever for an incumbent party? Perhaps Andrea might know?
Everyone agreed Labour were going to take the seat - I remember one prediction of a 1,500 majority. In the event Labour were ahead of LD by over 25,000 votes.
@jon_trickett: One thing clear in countless conversations. The public stil hold Labour guilty for mistakes made by New Labour esp Iraq. Need a clean break
@jon_trickett: Another problem was perception of a metropolitan elite running Westminster inc Labour - esp damaging for us #cleanbreak
Sounds good...
@DPJHodges: .@jon_trickett Jon, I think you should know someone's hacked your Twitter feed and is pretending he was never a key member of Ed's team...
'UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted - a lot of people and media and some politicians would break ranks to challenge that, so I think people will vote Out if asked.'
Despite what the EU and various commentators were saying before the election I think Cameron will get a good deal now he has a majority plus the size of the UKIP vote.
Just look at the pains Junker & co are taking to try and keep bankrupt Greece in the Euro. Germany is the major player here and will not want the UK outside the EU.
I think that's exactly right. The various EU powerbrokers were hoping to avoid Cameron getting back in. They thought even if he was in, he'd be hamstrung by the Liberal Democrats doing their bidding from within government. They also hoped that UKIP would be a busted flush and they could dismiss them as a passing flash in the pan.
But now Cameron has not only got an absolute majority, but there's a 13% UKIP vote. Half of the electorate voted for one of the two eurosceptic parties. Cameron has real leverage here so he can really win a lot back if he wants to. There's no reason to settle for just some symbolic changes or something that's not legally binding. The first priority should be limits on immigration change, because if we miss the immigration pledge again we'll be in trouble come 2030, but we should also look to get fisheries and farm reform too.
Just catching up on the #ThanetRigged Hoohaa, can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?
I guess lost of UKIP inclined voters thought it safe to vote UKIP in the locals, but decided to switch to Con in the national election for fear of an EdM led government.
Or a lot more UKIP supporters voted in the locals as a proportion of the turnout.
Just noticed that Ed's vote was up just 5% in Doncaster North, which I think is one of the lowest increases for a party leader the first time they contest a seat after being elected. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000669
Did he get over 50%? If so isam owes me beer and lunch!
That's really not going to help anyone's cause, is it? One assumes that CCTV will ensure the perps are up before the beak in short order. I suggest 1,000 hours community service cleaning graffiti in Westminster might be a reasonable starting point.
Just catching up on the #ThanetRigged Hoohaa, can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?
I guess lost of UKIP inclined voters thought it safe to vote UKIP in the locals, but decided to switch to Con in the national election for fear of an EdM led government.
Yes, and/or (as Suzanne Evans predicted) for fear of an SNP influenced one. Clearly a very powerful campaigning tactic on behalf of the Conservatives, and you can't blame them for using every tool at their disposal. But a shame for Farage nonetheless.
Does anyone know whether it must have been the case that quite a few Catholics must have voted for the Unionist candidate in order for him to win with 46% of the vote in Fermanagh & South Tyrone? I thought the Catholic population was something like 60% in that constituency.
I just don't see how it isn't going to be far harder for labour in England in five years. New boundaries. Balanced budgets. More widespread prosperity. Big increases for the nhs. A looser relationship with Europe that settles the problem for some soft kippers. They could choose who they want and still get hammered.
Given Osborne missed targets regarding the deficit, I wouldn't say balanced budgets are guaranteed at all. And given that we're about have austerity imposed, it's also incredibly unlikely they'll be more widespread prosperity, either. The boundaries will make things harder, but then that's something Labour will have to overcome if it wants to win - they would have changed at some point anyway. Arguably the EU ref also settles the UKIP threat to Labour, too.
I live in Staffordshire Moorlands. Twenty years ago a safe Labour seat. Although complicated by boundary changes it went Tory in 2010. The Conservative majority nearly doubled to 10,000 in 2015.
Public services have been and are being cut. The mines have long closed. Local light industry is expanding..New private houses are being built.
The Labour candidate was local (as was the existing Cons MP).
The Labour message had no appeal.
This is the kind of seat Labour must win to be in Government. No chance with Miliband, or Burnham ... The Labour party will be dead here in another generation..
In my experience people appreciate that you take the trouble to call on them. This can be important in local elections where a personal following can be important.
I was willing to vote for any party if they had knocked on my door (maybe I'm unlucky and it happened while I was out) - as it is a safe seat I'd have appreciated the effort, and it's not as though I'd need worry about it impacting the result.
Do we or will we get e.g. from Exit Poll, any information on ethnicity? I am interested in something Crosby said the long video and I would be interested to see if it came to pass.
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
Refusal to believe the economy improved in the last five years is central to why labour got stuffed.
We are all tempted by thinking the worst of our political enemies, and the best of the ones we support. But the left seemed to get wound up into a foaming frenzy when pointed out that, out of some very difficult decisions around welfare, we now have a fair few people who had not worked for some time now participating in the work place.
In some areas of the country employers are having real difficulty recruiting. Looking at the labour force studies, the drops in unemployment are actually quite breathtaking.
There is an argument about the security of work offered, some of it unsurprising. People who havent participated in the work place for sometime are unlikely to be offered full time permanent employment off the bat.
To deny, and even start shouting down "zero hours" at even the mention of the fact that two million people (a staggering number) are back in work, just looks silly.
Just catching up on the #ThanetRigged Hoohaa, can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?
I guess lost of UKIP inclined voters thought it safe to vote UKIP in the locals, but decided to switch to Con in the national election for fear of an EdM led government.
Yes, and/or (as Suzanne Evans predicted) for fear of an SNP influenced one. Clearly a very powerful campaigning tactic on behalf of the Conservatives, and you can't blame them for using every tool at their disposal. But a shame for Farage nonetheless.
Indeed. I like Farage, and he's done a lot for UKIP and thus our democracy (I wish they had done better), and earning a seat felt like it would be fitting for him.
Incidentally is there a protest/riot in Trafalgar square outside Downing Street going on at the moment?
Just waiting for one of the Cyberunionist crew to start attributing this to the new SNP MPs and/or Scottish people. At this rate in a few months anything that goes wrong in the UK will some how be deemed to be the SNP's fault. The best Cyberunionist I keep an eye on on Twitter is @Historywoman :
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
I think 2020 will be extremely difficult for the Tories, even if all the landmines e.g. EU, Scottish Problem, failed deficit reduction, don't go off.
If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.
Just noticed that Ed's vote was up just 5% in Doncaster North, which I think is one of the lowest increases for a party leader the first time they contest a seat after being elected. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000669
Did he get over 50%? If so isam owes me beer and lunch!
Labour certainly need to think long and hard before they select their new leader, however, not convinced (as suggested below) that the privately educated Hon Tristram Hunt is the way to go.
Why unearth would Labour choose Tim-Nice-But-Dim as its Leader?
They need somebody who looks like they have at least seen the inside of a Working Men's Club. Part of the selection process should be the ability to call a whole evening of bingo...
Does anyone know whether it must have been the case that quite a few Catholics must have voted for the Unionist candidate in order for him to win with 46% of the vote in Fermanagh & South Tyrone? I thought the Catholic population was something like 60% in that constituency.
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
With despondent Labour people and exultant Tories abounding right now, I suspect we'll see some really silly predictions about what might happen in 2020. Should be fun.
Although no mention of hubris at this time would be complete without mentioning that so long as those predictions are not carved into a stone slab those making them should be alright.
The Edstone would not have been as funny in the event of a Labour win, so that's one definite positive there. Now to see if Cameron really does pass a law to force himself to do something, which is almost as silly. (sillier even, but as visually amusing)
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
I think 2020 will be extremely difficult for the Tories, even if all the landmines e.g. EU, Scottish Problem, failed deficit reduction, don't go off.
If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.
The principal problem for the Tories in 2020 is that they'll be without Cameron. I don't like him and doubted his ability but he has shown himself to be a ruthless winner.
Does anyone know whether it must have been the case that quite a few Catholics must have voted for the Unionist candidate in order for him to win with 46% of the vote in Fermanagh & South Tyrone? I thought the Catholic population was something like 60% in that constituency.
Good to see the MSM are regaining their senses and are leaving behind the "there be monsters up north" mentality. Even Alan "I saved the union" Cochrane has produced a sensible article:
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
There is a difference. In 1992 labour made substantial gains. Those big majorities that delivered a 102 majority were slashed. Seats that seemed impossible now became reachable, a majority of 21 is within reach when you are moving towards it, but not so much when it is moving away from you.
This is their 1997 moment. They should have had it in 2010, but they, unlike the conservatives in 1997, accurately worked out where to draw the line in the sand and campaigned effectively.
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
I think 2020 will be extremely difficult for the Tories, even if all the landmines e.g. EU, Scottish Problem, failed deficit reduction, don't go off.
If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.
The principal problem for the Tories in 2020 is that they'll be without Cameron. I don't like him and doubted his ability but he has shown himself to be a ruthless winner.
If the Tories have the sense to avoid Boris, they will be on their second woman leader or first from an ethnic backgorund. They will thrive happily post DC.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Oh really ? Which ones ?
Oh, just for an example. Nissan.
Its a fair point. Renault-Nissan-AvtoVAZ have 36 plants all over Europe and Russia. These things would not happen overnight but the trend would be inevitable. Plus jobs which might come here will go somewhere else.
Then maybe they might not. 'Might' not. Then again when you are playing Russian Roulette you might not blow your head off.
So all you have is more Europhile scaremongering then. Just like your claims there would be no real difference between EU and EEA membership. Why do you bother to post this rubbish when you clearly know nothing about it?
That is already happening. The french government have bought more of Renault to increase their voting rights to try and keep Renault's french factories open at the expense of anywhere else. Supposedly the aim as a minimum is to force Nissan to move the next version of the Juke to a Renault factory that is threatened with closure.
The fact the suggest factory is uneconomic and Renault desperately wants to close it to remove excess capacity is never here nor there...
Just noticed that Ed's vote was up just 5% in Doncaster North, which I think is one of the lowest increases for a party leader the first time they contest a seat after being elected. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000669
The likes of Hague, Major, Brown, Howard and Clegg were good fits for their constituencies.
Does anyone think EdM was a good fit with Doncaster North ?
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
I think 2020 will be extremely difficult for the Tories, even if all the landmines e.g. EU, Scottish Problem, failed deficit reduction, don't go off.
If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.
The principal problem for the Tories in 2020 is that they'll be without Cameron. I don't like him and doubted his ability but he has shown himself to be a ruthless winner.
I think the Tories have potentially some reasonable candidates, as long as they don't go anywhere near Boris or Osborne.
The likes of Hague, Major, Brown, Howard and Clegg were good fits for their constituencies.
Does anyone think EdM was a good fit with Doncaster North ?
Somebody captured a picture of a guy standing outside Ed's house before he went to the count. He said he was waiting to see if he was real, because in all his years of living there he had never actually seen him around the house.
Comments
Labour certainly need to think long and hard before they select their new leader, however, not convinced (as suggested below) that the privately educated Hon Tristram Hunt is the way to go.
Map of what seats changed hands (hint scotland is Yellow)
The overall make-up of the council is 29 Labour, 20 Conservative, four Liberal Democrat, four Independent, two UKIP and one Green. Results from the local election mean no group is in overall control.
This is Stoke on f##king Trent....mines, pottery, etc i.e easy Labour. I believe the likes of Bet365 are now a big employers in the area, but there has to be more going on than that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3ZwazK9iaw
I'd do it the other way round. But under Labour rules one or the other has to be a woman, I think. I'd happily see Kendall or Creasy alongside Jarvis. Creasy and Umunna together would not work. Kendall in charge and Umunna as deputy might be OK.
More than a third of voters were influenced by the TV debates between the political leaders in the run-up to the election, a survey has found.
According to a Panelbase survey of 3,019 people, 38% were influenced by the debates, 23% by TV news coverage and 10% by party political broadcasts.
The research group said TV was "by far the most influential media source", outscoring newspapers and social media.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32673439
https://twitter.com/nmobal/status/597069191380865025
'If anyone has seen IOS still wandering around clutching hundreds of Vote Labour leaflets, can you tell him he can come out now, the war is over.'
I would have thought having you letterbox constantly filled with leaflets was a major turn -off for a lot of voters not to mention people banging on your front door when your in the middle of your favorite TV program..
Personally I think the so called ground war is old hat and it's the air war that's relevant these days.
The election is over you can stop spouting the propaganda.
Did any pundit or reporter ever go out and actually question the polls or try to understand how they (supposedly) work?
As an aside... does anyone want to guess just how many SNP MPs will turn up to Westminster on a regular basis to vote? Who will be the first SNP MP to be involved in a scandal?
BTW Put your winnings if any into the Westminster take away chips rice and curry market... ;-)
My favourite part of that is at the bottom:
This article was originally published on Consented,a multi-media platform for those who aren’t accurately represented by the mainstream
Surely in its own terms the piece is now a failure, as by being included on the mainstream media (well, Independent), it is no longer edgy, but itself part of the mainstream. Perhaps unwarranted was a poor choice of words. I meant closer to 'unduly pessimistic'. The same tactics would apply, but I think BOO would overcome it. UKIP do not, they think the public would be fooled and they'd lose.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tl7yAD4SGg
@JournoStephen: There's a student mob outside Downing Street protesting the outcome of a democratic election. Tuition fees are nowhere near high enough.
Can't even get the percentages correct!!!!
Stop being a Europhile fantasist and start looking at the real evidence.
"Perhaps unwarranted was a poor choice of words. I meant closer to 'unduly pessimistic'. "
Fair enough.
It seemed such a great and obvious thing to stay in forty years ago. Perhaps more cynical voices will be heard this time.
They need somebody who looks like they have at least seen the inside of a Working Men's Club. Part of the selection process should be the ability to call a whole evening of bingo...
https://twitter.com/gwarn/status/597091495267737600
Or is it these people, who in addition to not understanding the constitutional conventions, didn't notice the result?
A post-election protest has been planned to oust David Cameron from power by a group claiming that the Conservatives are planning to “occupy Downing Street” even if they do not win a majority. The event, organised by anti-austerity group the People’s Assembly, is scheduled to take place on Saturday outside No 10.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/protest-oust-david-cameron-tories-occupy-downing-street-election
Successful politicians need empathy towards people different to themselves.
Comment under one picture "when the batons come out you'll know you're living in a dictatorship pretending to be a democracy".
Yes, of course, that must be it. I wonder what we're living in if people try to provoke batons coming out so they can make the same point.
'UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted - a lot of people and media and some politicians would break ranks to challenge that, so I think people will vote Out if asked.'
Despite what the EU and various commentators were saying before the election I think Cameron will get a good deal now he has a majority plus the size of the UKIP vote.
Just look at the pains Junker & co are taking to try and keep bankrupt Greece in the Euro.
Germany is the major player here and will not want the UK outside the EU.
but they just love a demo.
"Dozens of activists chanted "get the Tories out" as Whitehall was shut for several hours during the demonstration on Saturday afternoon."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000669
www.youtube.com/watch?t=211&v=4QDkEOWLw6M
Don't miss the winner at the end of the speech
paradoxically the biggest antidote to scaremongering comes from the EU, we can safely vote out since the EU will ask us to vote again until we get the right answer.
so vote out for a better deal it's your patriotic duty to do so.
Everyone agreed Labour were going to take the seat - I remember one prediction of a 1,500 majority. In the event Labour were ahead of LD by over 25,000 votes.
@jon_trickett: Another problem was perception of a metropolitan elite running Westminster inc Labour - esp damaging for us #cleanbreak
Sounds good...
@DPJHodges: .@jon_trickett Jon, I think you should know someone's hacked your Twitter feed and is pretending he was never a key member of Ed's team...
But now Cameron has not only got an absolute majority, but there's a 13% UKIP vote. Half of the electorate voted for one of the two eurosceptic parties. Cameron has real leverage here so he can really win a lot back if he wants to. There's no reason to settle for just some symbolic changes or something that's not legally binding. The first priority should be limits on immigration change, because if we miss the immigration pledge again we'll be in trouble come 2030, but we should also look to get fisheries and farm reform too.
His increase is lower than those for Caroline and Rosie in the 2 other Doncaster seats.
One assumes that CCTV will ensure the perps are up before the beak in short order. I suggest 1,000 hours community service cleaning graffiti in Westminster might be a reasonable starting point.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/N06000007
Public services have been and are being cut. The mines have long closed. Local light industry is expanding..New private houses are being built.
The Labour candidate was local (as was the existing Cons MP).
The Labour message had no appeal.
This is the kind of seat Labour must win to be in Government. No chance with Miliband, or Burnham ... The Labour party will be dead here in another generation..
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
In some areas of the country employers are having real difficulty recruiting. Looking at the labour force studies, the drops in unemployment are actually quite breathtaking.
There is an argument about the security of work offered, some of it unsurprising. People who havent participated in the work place for sometime are unlikely to be offered full time permanent employment off the bat.
To deny, and even start shouting down "zero hours" at even the mention of the fact that two million people (a staggering number) are back in work, just looks silly.
https://twitter.com/Historywoman
@CambridgeNewsUK: Labour's student activists may have been the difference in Cambridge #GE2015
http://t.co/SuXtiY4BR9
If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.
@LabourList: Yvetteforleader? Website registered by key aide suggests Cooper leadership bid http://labli.st/1Erc6mw
http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/05/08/fermanagh-south-tyrone-one-day-a-unionist-will-stand-on-that-stage-as-victor/
Although no mention of hubris at this time would be complete without mentioning that so long as those predictions are not carved into a stone slab those making them should be alright.
The Edstone would not have been as funny in the event of a Labour win, so that's one definite positive there. Now to see if Cameron really does pass a law to force himself to do something, which is almost as silly. (sillier even, but as visually amusing)
So not a total waste of money
Especially if they expected the government to be dependent upon Unionist MPs.
https://medium.com/@alexmassie/scotland-unbound-scotland-divided-da073c731818
Good to see the MSM are regaining their senses and are leaving behind the "there be monsters up north" mentality. Even Alan "I saved the union" Cochrane has produced a sensible article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11591248/David-Cameron-needs-to-have-a-serious-think-about-how-hes-going-to-save-the-Union.html
This is their 1997 moment. They should have had it in 2010, but they, unlike the conservatives in 1997, accurately worked out where to draw the line in the sand and campaigned effectively.
The fact the suggest factory is uneconomic and Renault desperately wants to close it to remove excess capacity is never here nor there...
Oh and let's not forget Tony Blair got less than 37% back in 2005...
Does anyone think EdM was a good fit with Doncaster North ?
Farage. Milliband. Clegg. Top Gear? #justsaying