The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Wasn't much the same said if we didn't join the €?
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
I remember. Please do remember though that those bureaucrats wield great influence and in any case many of the national leaders proper agree with them, meaning the lack of precision in my post hardly matters.
In fact, looking at my post I see I said 'EU leaders' - which I would use to refer to the collective of EU bureaucrats and Heads of Government, so in fact it was entirely accurate. How many times do we see a report that other governments are sick and tired of Britain moaning about the EU, even if they are not exactly happy with every aspect of it themselves? It's a lot.
As you say, convincing all of them could prove very hard. With the bureaucrats fundamentally committed to preventing it as well, I don't see how any person could manage to get meaningful change. Cameron needs to work a miracle, or sell the hell out of whatever bauble he manages to get.
The polls weren't that wrong actually because many of them had figures of 34% each with a 3% margin of error. If you apply that margin of error, it's possible to get 37% and 31% which is very close to the result. The problem is people often forget about the 3% margin of error.
ing 34-34. The chance of that happening every poll is minute.
Also heard on the radio earlier that the Lib Dems joining the coalition gave blue liberals in places like Yeovil the green light to vote Tory at the election.
Makes a lot of sense - at times here in the SW it feels like even Labour candidates are a little blue, compared to elsewhere at least. If Cameron's Conservatives are generally liberal - and were often accused by their more right wing fellows of being a little too happy to do so and to be working with the LDs - then they probably fit exactly what a lot of those blue Liberals were looking for.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What Angela Merkel wants is no more important than what Victor Ponta or Boyko Borissov want. Whatever deal is made still has to be passed by every single one of the EU members. If any one of them decides to block it then the deal is off.
Who realistically thinks there will be deal? Merkel and co will say 'like it or lump it'...
Cameron will offer the referendum pretty much on how things stand now. This renegotiation is just a 'ruse'.
I did my brains on the election so this is all hindsight talk I did not realise at the time, but just looked at the polls...
If you took the perhaps unfair view that all the cheap online polling companies were an unknown quantity, and just ignored the recent entrants to the industry and ONLY looked at the major firms that we would have polling, in say 1992 who have been around for years....if instead the blizzard of polls you had only looked at the Ipsos Mori & ICM this is the picture that would have been painted ub tge run up to the election:
Election Day!
36 / 35 / 8 Tories +1
35 / 35/ 9 Tories tied
35 / 30 / 8 Tories + 5
35 / 32 / 9 Tories + 3
34 / 32 / 10 Tories +2
34 / 32 / 10 Tories +2
33 / 35 / 10 Labour +2
39 / 33 / 8 Tories +6
It's a rather different picture...sadly, I looked at the blizzard of polls instead and fell for it...
Are Ipsos Mori & ICM the firms to trust...and perhaps some of the others guilty of voodoo polling, burying inconvenient data etc etc...small poor samples...using too much weightings to compensate for dodgy samples...online etc...
We had alot of polls out...but what were the track record and rigour...if I had focussed on these two companies, there would have been a rather different picture of the election...
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
My first chance to comment two days after the night before so to speak. Plenty of recriminations, explanations and triumphalism flying about from some quarters (including those anxious to kick the corpse now it's down) but fortunately some graciousness and understanding.
I'll comment on what I think it means on my blog over the next few days but from a local and betting perspective - here in East Ham Stephen Timms increased his majority to over 34,000 on a 5% swing from the Conservatives. As predicted, UKIP just saved their deposit and as predicted all the other candidates lost theirs.
From a betting point of view, those who covered my 1-point double on LAB winning Battersea and CON taking Twickenham with two 1-point singles will have covered their outgoings while I also backed LAB to win Ilford North and LD 11-20 seats (ouch !!).
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
This seems to be invented in your head - as the idiotic claims that "it was the same if we didn't join the Euro". It's invented fantasy on your part.
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
This seems to be invented in your head - as the idiotic claims that "it was the same if we didn't join the Euro". It's invented fantasy on your part.
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
My first chance to comment two days after the night before so to speak. Plenty of recriminations, explanations and triumphalism flying about from some quarters (including those anxious to kick the corpse now it's down) but fortunately some graciousness and understanding.
I'll comment on what I think it means on my blog over the next few days but from a local and betting perspective - here in East Ham Stephen Timms increased his majority to over 34,000 on a 5% swing from the Conservatives. As predicted, UKIP just saved their deposit and as predicted all the other candidates lost theirs.
From a betting point of view, those who covered my 1-point double on LAB winning Battersea and CON taking Twickenham with two 1-point singles will have covered their outgoings while I also backed LAB to win Ilford North and LD 11-20 seats (ouch !!).
Would a bookie take on Lab winning Battersea and Con gaining Twickenham ???
Before the event was known a collapse of the Lib Dem vote to Labour could well have made Battersea go red and Twickenham go blue if that was the case.
They could have been two massively related contingencies... Surely no bookmaker would have touched it with a bargepole ?
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Oh really ? Which ones ?
Oh, just for an example. Nissan.
Not true Carlos Ghosn has said it might impact future investment but that Nissan will not leave.
That's automotive manufacturer speak for could we have some bribes please.
I did my brains on the election so this is all hindsight talk I did not realise at the time, but just looked at the polls...
If you took the perhaps unfair view that all the cheap online polling companies were an unknown quantity, and just ignored the recent entrants to the industry and ONLY looked at the major firms that we would have polling, in say 1992 who have been around for years....if instead the blizzard of polls you had only looked at the Ipsos Mori & ICM this is the picture that would have been painted ub tge run up to the election:
Election Day!
36 / 35 / 8 Tories +1
35 / 35/ 9 Tories tied
35 / 30 / 8 Tories + 5
35 / 32 / 9 Tories + 3
34 / 32 / 10 Tories +2
34 / 32 / 10 Tories +2
33 / 35 / 10 Labour +2
39 / 33 / 8 Tories +6
It's a rather different picture...sadly, I looked at the blizzard of polls instead and fell for it...
Are Ipsos Mori & ICM the firms to trust...and perhaps some of the others guilty of voodoo polling, burying inconvenient data etc etc...small poor samples...using too much weightings to compensate for dodgy samples...online etc...
We had alot of polls out...but what were the track record and rigour...if I had focussed on these two companies, there would have been a rather different picture of the election...
Someone called Chris Hanretty has crunched the numbers, and says the best pollsters were:
Telephone: ComRes, Mori Online: YouGov, Survation.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
This seems to be invented in your head - as the idiotic claims that "it was the same if we didn't join the Euro". It's invented fantasy on your part.
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
If that's the EU's attitude, I would vote "out" - who wants to be in a relationship like that?
And that's coming from someone who is currently (borderline) "in"
If anyone else had just steered their party to the brink of an existential crisis, masterminded the worst election campaign in history, got their boss sacked, alienated colleagues, looked like a complete and utter numpty on National TV, how might they have responded to this?
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive - the bad poll that Lucy Powell suppressed - to the fury of Iain McNicol. An obituary of Ed Miliband... http://t.co/ceR3eCQqsB
Do you think perhaps they might want to just STFU?
Not our Lucy...
@LucyMPowell: @SamCoatesTimes this is so wrong on so many levels. I will put the truth out there in my own time.
EDIT: It just occurred to me this is how tim thinks about George Osborne. Not only is it wrong, it is ungallant. I vow to leave Ms Powell alone now. Unless she does something even more ridiculous.
And note turnout was pretty reasonable in all those seats.
By the way do your 2010 figures include the delayed Thirk & Malton election?
They should do. I think Con was 37.0% in GB in 2010 to one decimal place, not 36.9% as per your figures.
Yes they do. Here is my results spreadsheet. Totals are at the bottom. There were a number of disputed constituency figures from 2010 and I made a special effort to try and find out which figures were correct. I note those at the bottom of the spreadsheet:
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
This seems to be invented in your head - as the idiotic claims that "it was the same if we didn't join the Euro". It's invented fantasy on your part.
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
So name them.
Why should he. Can you guarantee they wont change? The end result for you plan would be we would be in the EEA and could well be pushed into Schengen. I do not have much of a problem with being in the EEA and moving there in an orderly manner from the EU might well avoid Schengen. But we will be in the single market and free movement of labour. The EU is not going to go away and any deal with it will involve free movement of labour. We need to refine the rules whilst we are still in the EU and have a chance.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Oh really ? Which ones ?
Oh, just for an example. Nissan.
Not true. They said 2 years ago they would consider their position. A very different thing.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
This seems to be invented in your head - as the idiotic claims that "it was the same if we didn't join the Euro". It's invented fantasy on your part.
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
So name them.
Why should he. Can you guarantee they wont change? The end result for you plan would be we would be in the EEA and could well be pushed into Schengen. I do not have much of a problem with being in the EEA and moving there in an orderly manner from the EU might well avoid Schengen. But we will be in the single market and free movement of labour. The EU is not going to go away and any deal with it will involve free movement of labour. We need to refine the rules whilst we are still in the EU and have a chance.
Much as I would like to be a part of Schengen, there is no way we could be forced join.
Ms Creasey was rude and misandrist to me on Twitter when she thought I was a bloke.
No going back there for me.
I used to follow Ms Creasy on Twitter when her name was first mentioned as one to watch.
I follow quite a lot of people on Twitter (you'd never guess, right?) many of whom I disagree with, some of whom make me swear at the screen with every tweet, but not even I could stomach the constant stream of consciousness bullshit from Stella
Is she a sort of politicians' Gwynneth Paltrow?
I tweeted her once but no reply
Samuel Knowles (@theboyknowles) 21/01/2015 23:18 @stellacreasy on QT re Gay marriage, you said 'if you don't like it, don't marry a man' & felt you were v clever. So if you don't like p3...
I'd love to see the Derby North declaration, but haven't been able to find it so far. Chris Williamson wouldn't have been expecting to lose the seat, as his Twitter feed shows.
EDIT: It just occurred to me this is how tim thinks about George Osborne. Not only is it wrong, it is ungallant. I vow to leave Ms Powell alone now. Unless she does something even more ridiculous.
His parody twitter account is even more fitting now. Poor guy is still firing out bile.
If anyone else had just steered their party to the brink of an existential crisis, masterminded the worst election campaign in history, got their boss sacked, alienated colleagues, looked like a complete and utter numpty on National TV, how might they have responded to this?
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive - the bad poll that Lucy Powell suppressed - to the fury of Iain McNicol. An obituary of Ed Miliband... http://t.co/ceR3eCQqsB
Do you think perhaps they might want to just STFU?
Not our Lucy...
@LucyMPowell: @SamCoatesTimes this is so wrong on so many levels. I will put the truth out there in my own time.
EDIT: It just occurred to me this is how tim thinks about George Osborne. Not only is it wrong, it is ungallant. I vow to leave Ms Powell alone now. Unless she does something even more ridiculous.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
This seems to be invented in your head - as the idiotic claims that "it was the same if we didn't join the Euro". It's invented fantasy on your part.
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
And note turnout was pretty reasonable in all those seats.
By the way do your 2010 figures include the delayed Thirk & Malton election?
They should do. I think Con was 37.0% in GB in 2010 to one decimal place, not 36.9% as per your figures.
Yes they do. Here is my results spreadsheet. Totals are at the bottom. There were a number of disputed constituency figures from 2010 and I made a special effort to try and find out which figures were correct. I note those at the bottom of the spreadsheet:
I don't include Bercow's votes as Conservative which some organisations, such as the BBC, do. That may explain the 36.9% vs 37.0% discepancy.
OK, thanks - great work as always.
I think Bercow is the answer.
In my view Bercow should be counted as Con - which is why that's what the BBC do - because Con get the benefit of Bercow's seat as Lab provide two Deputy Speakers to one for Con.
Interesting that there was an Ashcroft national poll from 24-26 April which gave Con 36%, Lab 30%, UKIP 11%, LD 9%. This was very close to the final result:
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
This seems to be invented in your head - as the idiotic claims that "it was the same if we didn't join the Euro". It's invented fantasy on your part.
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
If that's the EU's attitude, I would vote "out" - who wants to be in a relationship like that?
And that's coming from someone who is currently (borderline) "in"
I'm very, very hopeful England will vote Out, so please reconsider your position.
If anyone else had just steered their party to the brink of an existential crisis, masterminded the worst election campaign in history, got their boss sacked, alienated colleagues, looked like a complete and utter numpty on National TV, how might they have responded to this?
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive - the bad poll that Lucy Powell suppressed - to the fury of Iain McNicol. An obituary of Ed Miliband... http://t.co/ceR3eCQqsB
Do you think perhaps they might want to just STFU?
Not our Lucy...
@LucyMPowell: @SamCoatesTimes this is so wrong on so many levels. I will put the truth out there in my own time.
EDIT: It just occurred to me this is how tim thinks about George Osborne. Not only is it wrong, it is ungallant. I vow to leave Ms Powell alone now. Unless she does something even more ridiculous.
Is that a quote at all, as I'm getting a really weird sense of deja-vu at the sight of it on this subject for some reason.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Oh really ? Which ones ?
Oh, just for an example. Nissan.
Its a fair point. Renault-Nissan-AvtoVAZ have 36 plants all over Europe and Russia. These things would not happen overnight but the trend would be inevitable. Plus jobs which might come here will go somewhere else.
Then maybe they might not. 'Might' not. Then again when you are playing Russian Roulette you might not blow your head off.
Will the Good Lord be updating that planned biography of Cameron at all I wonder? Just so it does not have the between-the-lines message of 'this is why he lost'?
If anyone else had just steered their party to the brink of an existential crisis, masterminded the worst election campaign in history, got their boss sacked, alienated colleagues, looked like a complete and utter numpty on National TV, how might they have responded to this?
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive - the bad poll that Lucy Powell suppressed - to the fury of Iain McNicol. An obituary of Ed Miliband... http://t.co/ceR3eCQqsB
Do you think perhaps they might want to just STFU?
Not our Lucy...
@LucyMPowell: @SamCoatesTimes this is so wrong on so many levels. I will put the truth out there in my own time.
EDIT: It just occurred to me this is how tim thinks about George Osborne. Not only is it wrong, it is ungallant. I vow to leave Ms Powell alone now. Unless she does something even more ridiculous.
Still plenty of Cameron doubters out there. With a majority in his back pocket, it's deal or out. The other leaders know he isn't bluffing, because of the referendum, so they will negotiate. As I said earlier, the FCO will relish taking on Juncker and Co, and Osborne will be a canny operator with the other politicos. Cameron will come back with a deal... then it's down to us.
On a related issue; is there any clarity on whether Conservative MPs will be allowed to choose which side they are on when the referendum campaign starts - as happened with both Labour and Conservative in the 70s referendum?
Will the Good Lord be updating that planned biography of Cameron at all I wonder? Just so it does not have the between-the-lines message of 'this is why he lost'?
There are several books about Cameron scheduled to come out later this year...there might be a fair bit of rewriting going on over the summer months.
I agree that Bercow should be counted as Conservative in terms of seats on election night for the reasons you give, to balance out the 4 speaker/deputy speakers.
But when it comes to votes I think it's better not to include him in the Con totals, although I can see that it's a bit of a paradox to do one and not the other.
And note turnout was pretty reasonable in all those seats.
By the way do your 2010 figures include the delayed Thirk & Malton election?
They should do. I think Con was 37.0% in GB in 2010 to one decimal place, not 36.9% as per your figures.
Yes they do. Here is my results spreadsheet. Totals are at the bottom. There were a number of disputed constituency figures from 2010 and I made a special effort to try and find out which figures were correct. I note those at the bottom of the spreadsheet:
I don't include Bercow's votes as Conservative which some organisations, such as the BBC, do. That may explain the 36.9% vs 37.0% discepancy.
OK, thanks - great work as always.
I think Bercow is the answer.
In my view Bercow should be counted as Con - which is why that's what the BBC do - because Con get the benefit of Bercow's seat as Lab provide two Deputy Speakers to one for Con.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
This seems to be invented in your head - as the idiotic claims that "it was the same if we didn't join the Euro". It's invented fantasy on your part.
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
If that's the EU's attitude, I would vote "out" - who wants to be in a relationship like that?
And that's coming from someone who is currently (borderline) "in"
I'm very, very hopeful England will vote Out, so please reconsider your position.
And very, very fearful that Scotland will do the same. The people of Scotland have no great love for the EU. Not even your voters. Only the activists who want EU development aid to facilitate their vision of being a quasi-independent EU vassal state really like it. And wish to deny the people of Scotland a referendum on it.
Been busy watching the football scores. Does anyone else think that Tottenham and Southampton are deliberately trying to avoid playing in the Europa League?
Cameron wants to win the EU referendum and then retire undefeated. He'll bring back some meaningless tinsel and claim mission accomplished. I suspect he'll succeed and then hand over to his successor (tim's mate).
Labour could hardly have done worse than pick Ed last time so they have form.
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Despite getting a hammering Labour did get 9.3 million votes. I have not yet seen any analysis that demonstrates it lost a lot of working class votes to UKIP, though I accept that may well have been the case in some places. But clearly in places such as the North East and Merseyside - which are not stocked full of metropolitan luvvies and ethnic minorities - it retained and even built on such support. Put it this way, if Ed can get 9.3 million votes, despite losing Scotland, what could a normal kind of leader get?
That does not mean, of course, that Labour does not need a root and branch review of everything - it clearly does and it clearly needs to become more business friendly, more aspiration-friendly and more relaxed about Englishness - but it does mean there is hope. The Tories will have a new leader next time, they will have had an EU referendum, there are five years of events and, as likely as not, a recession to get through. In short, a hell of a lot can change. And as we have seen, under FPTP in a multi-party system slight shifts can make a very big difference in seat numbers.
Failing Jarvis, I'd go for Kendall or maybe Creasey - someone not identified with the last government and someone with the ability to speak to non-Labour parts of the electorate. Chukka, I am afraid, is too London and too remote form middle England. he would lead Labour to defeat in 2020, without doubt.
Just to say BBC appears to have included Bercow in Con seats total but not in Con votes total this time (contrary to what they did re votes total in 2010).
Will the Good Lord be updating that planned biography of Cameron at all I wonder? Just so it does not have the between-the-lines message of 'this is why he lost'?
There are several books about Cameron scheduled to come out later this year...there might be a fair bit of rewriting going on over the summer months.
there was one man who did see a Tory victory coming: Jim Messina. The Obama guru and former White House deputy chief of staff was hired by the Tories for his data nuance and his substantial salary was clearly worth it. His firm Messina Quantitative Research provided provided accurate data from marginals throughout the campaign, which fed into Lynton Crosby’s campaign. According to Dan Balz in the Washington Post today, Messina’s internal data showed what all the British pollsters failed to report:
‘A week before the election, Messina’s internal projections showed the Tories on track to win 306 seats — far above any public poll at the time — though many races remained extremely close.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
This seems to be invented in your head - as the idiotic claims that "it was the same if we didn't join the Euro". It's invented fantasy on your part.
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
So name them.
Why should he. Can you guarantee they wont change? The end result for you plan would be we would be in the EEA and could well be pushed into Schengen. I do not have much of a problem with being in the EEA and moving there in an orderly manner from the EU might well avoid Schengen. But we will be in the single market and free movement of labour. The EU is not going to go away and any deal with it will involve free movement of labour. We need to refine the rules whilst we are still in the EU and have a chance.
Nobody can guarantee anything, however we can look at past behaviour.
Nissan said they'd divest if we didn't join the Euro and they now produce more cars than ever in the UK, with more models in the pipeline. Fundamentally this is down to Sunderland being the most productive car plant in Europe, a position it has held for a decade.
On the other hand the fkwit CEO at Ford Europe has made the same threat. Let's see. Ford's record in the UK since the unified market of of 1992 has been to stop car production in the UK altogether and reduce its UK employment by over 75%. Hardly an advert for the benefits of staying in. You can't threaten to leave when you've already left.
I have not yet seen any analysis that demonstrates it lost a lot of working class votes to UKIP, though I accept that may well have been the case in some places.
The problem In voters have with the EU is that a lot of those In voters have little affection for the EU, and some are saying In purely out of fear of negative consequences if we leave. I have long been one of them. Although the idea is ridiculed by some, there are still people in Scotland who have love for the UK union, even if it is diminishing and on the way out, but virtually no actual deep affection for the EU from a lot of In voters. That makes the vote potentially very soft.
UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted - a lot of people and media and some politicians would break ranks to challenge that, so I think people will vote Out if asked.
Though I also thought Indy Yes would win last year and Labour would win this week. I'm either a fool or running several years ahead of the actual outcomes.
hello again, everyone. I stayed off commenting duing the campaign, as otherwise engaged. I contemplated hiding behind the sofaafter Thursday, but there is so much dust behind there that I think I am better off out here. Pretty disastrous for us Lib Dems, swept away in a tide of anti-SNP/Labour feeling. Feel I did my duty as the candidate in Rochester & Strood, as Mr Reckless lost, which was my sole mission. Anyone who thinks this is the end for the Lib Dems is very much mistaken. 3500 new members since Thursday.
Very fearful for the country now though. Tory government with a small majority, held captive by its right wing is where I came into politics 20 years ago.
there was one man who did see a Tory victory coming: Jim Messina. The Obama guru and former White House deputy chief of staff was hired by the Tories for his data nuance and his substantial salary was clearly worth it. His firm Messina Quantitative Research provided provided accurate data from marginals throughout the campaign, which fed into Lynton Crosby’s campaign. According to Dan Balz in the Washington Post today, Messina’s internal data showed what all the British pollsters failed to report:
‘A week before the election, Messina’s internal projections showed the Tories on track to win 306 seats — far above any public poll at the time — though many races remained extremely close.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but there are some really interesting snippets out there of the below the waterline campaign that the Tories ran.
The Guardian leak about Tories spending crazy money on Facebook at the back end of 2014 and a C4 news segment from 8 month ago talking about Messina / Crosby locked in CCHQ from dawn until dusk (contrast that to Labour "guru" who did f##k all here in the UK).
From what I read is the Messina / Crosby thought 300+ for quite a long time, but 2 weeks out they had some bad numbers and got the wobbles. Then they gave Cameron a massive kick up the arse and we got "pumped up Dave".
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Sadly true.
Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed
Its a fair point. Renault-Nissan-AvtoVAZ have 36 plants all over Europe and Russia. These things would not happen overnight but the trend would be inevitable. Plus jobs which might come here will go somewhere else.
Then maybe they might not. 'Might' not. Then again when you are playing Russian Roulette you might not blow your head off.
People tend to be too black and white with such things.
What Nissan is most likely to do, is keep enough production going that it is still valuable for the UK Government to keep subsidising jobs (well tax breaks as direct subsidy is illegal naturally) in Sunderland while effectively running production down. This will be quite important if the UK refuses to join the EEA because of Shengen. In effect the Washington Plant will become a finishing shop. Effectively allowing un-tariffed imports of NIssans from other facilities to be Polished and sold on to the UK market.
So Nissan avoids any duties while the UK government "double pays" both with tax breaks and tax credits for the much lower wages a finishing shop commands compared to an actual manufacturing plant.
Same with the banks, they won't close their doors and vanish. They will just become an increasingly small part of the UK economy as the functions begin to move to Frankfurt and Paris.
The graph posted in this article is shocking and really sums up how bad the polls were. If it was MoE we'd have seen polls with the Tories above what they got but everything showed them below.
New gold standard = stick your finger in the air and guess, based on leadership ratings and other relevant variables.
Just to say BBC appears to have included Bercow in Con seats total but not in Con votes total this time (contrary to what they did re votes total in 2010).
It actually makes sense to do that however odd it seems IMO.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but there are some really interesting snippets out there. The Guardian story about Tories spending crazy money on Facebook and a C4 news segment from 8 month ago talking about Messina / Crosby locked in CCHQ from dawn until dusk (contrast that to Labour "guru" who did f##k all here in the UK).
Yes. Pundits who clearly failed to see any of this coming will maintain their lucrative TV careers explaining how it all worked behind the scenes but nobody could talk about it...
If you have ever seen the film 'Wag the Dog', imagine the talking heads on TV in the final scenes
hello again, everyone. I stayed off commenting duing the campaign, as otherwise engaged. I contemplated hiding behind the sofaafter Thursday, but there is so much dust behind there that I think I am better off out here. Pretty disastrous for us Lib Dems, swept away in a tide of anti-SNP/Labour feeling. Feel I did my duty as the candidate in Rochester & Strood, as Mr Reckless lost, which was my sole mission. Anyone who thinks this is the end for the Lib Dems is very much mistaken. 3500 new members since Thursday.
I wish them well. A strong third party (with more than regional ambitions) is a very useful thing to have in my view. I don't doubt it will a decade even to get back to 20ish seats, and that contingent upon not falling apart to nothing, but in the long run opportunity may present itself.
"UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted."
That's exactly what happened in 1975. I was a strong Europhile then, but even I thought the whole thing was a farce.
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Despite getting a hammering Labour did get 9.3 million votes. I have not yet seen any analysis that demonstrates it lost a lot of working class votes to UKIP, though I accept that may well have been the case in some places. But clearly in places such as the North East and Merseyside - which are not stocked full of metropolitan luvvies and ethnic minorities - it retained and even built on such support. Put it this way, if Ed can get 9.3 million votes, despite losing Scotland, what could a normal kind of leader get?
That does not mean, of course, that Labour does not need a root and branch review of everything - it clearly does and it clearly needs to become more business friendly, more aspiration-friendly and more relaxed about Englishness - but it does mean there is hope. The Tories will have a new leader next time, they will have had an EU referendum, there are five years of events and, as likely as not, a recession to get through. In short, a hell of a lot can change. And as we have seen, under FPTP in a multi-party system slight shifts can make a very big difference in seat numbers.
Failing Jarvis, I'd go for Kendall or maybe Creasey - someone not identified with the last government and someone with the ability to speak to non-Labour parts of the electorate. Chukka, I am afraid, is too London and too remote form middle England. he would lead Labour to defeat in 2020, without doubt.
What I found astounding was the way Labour didn't seem to realise that the very fact Ed was so popular in places like Islington was evidence that he would go down badly in the small town English marginals. What Labour needs is a leader that isn't loved in Islington, because Islington voters will vote Labour anyway. Talk about living in a bubble...
Just to say BBC appears to have included Bercow in Con seats total but not in Con votes total this time (contrary to what they did re votes total in 2010).
It actually makes sense to do that however odd it seems IMO.
Yes, understand your point.
Only issue is that Con lose more votes than Lab - note that Lab would get some votes in Buckingham if they stood (though fewer than Con).
Though BBC numbers are inconsistent between 2010 and 2015!
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Sadly true.
Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed
Brown brought Scotland to the party. Ed was even more toxic in Scotland than he was in England.
But the leader only gets you so far, though. There has to be a level of credibility and cohesiveness about the policies too; which is why you don't want to be advocating a mansion tax or an energy price freeze. A better leader is not a substitute for a new direction, but it is a very good place from which to start the process.
Whoever leads Labour will not succeed unless the party is seen to embrace aspiration, the profit motive and Englishness as an identity. That does not preclude advocating social justice, solidarity and equality of opportunity, but it does mean showing you understand the modern world and can operate within it. Ed actually identified some major problems, what he could not do was ever find solutions. But that's what Labour needs.
When considering a prospective Labour leader, lets not forget the unions.
It will be interesting to see if Unite get Jim Murphy's head on a pole.
Someone posited on election night their might be a schism. A sufficiently 'Blairite' new Labour leader might just convince Len to start Unite, The Party instead.
"Despite getting a hammering Labour did get 9.3 million votes. I have not yet seen any analysis that demonstrates it lost a lot of working class votes to UKIP, though I accept that may well have been the case in some places."
Look at the first result to be declared:
Lab +4.8% UKIP + 18.8% Con -3.0% Green +2.8% LD -11.9%
UKIP vote up 19% but Tories only down 3%. So UKIP must have got most of their votes from Labour because UKIP wouldn't be taking many votes from the LDs. The swing would have been from LD to Lab, and then Lab to UKIP.
When considering a prospective Labour leader, lets not forget the unions.
It will be interesting to see if Unite get Jim Murphy's head on a pole.
Someone posited on election night their might be a schism. A sufficiently 'Blairite' new Labour leader might just convince Len to start Unite, The Party instead.
That was me. Len leading Unite and a few of the other Jurassic unions off to form Real Labour would be a God send over the medium to long term, even if it was a real pain in the short term.
Dan Jarvis immediately changes Labour's entire relationship with the electorate because he gets a hearing from everyone. Many voters could not get past how bad a choice of leader Ed was. I am not advocating a mansion tax or similar, but having it proposed by someone who served Queen and country for a decade on the front line in various conflicts is very different to having it proposed by a geek who stabbed his brother in the back.
Despite getting a hammering Labour did get 9.3 million votes. I have not yet seen any analysis that demonstrates it lost a lot of working class votes to UKIP, though I accept that may well have been the case in some places. But clearly in places such as the North East and Merseyside - which are not stocked full of metropolitan luvvies and ethnic minorities - it retained and even built on such support. Put it this way, if Ed can get 9.3 million votes, despite losing Scotland, what could a normal kind of leader get?
That does not mean, of course, that Labour does not need a root and branch review of everything - it clearly does and it clearly needs to become more business friendly, more aspiration-friendly and more relaxed about Englishness - but it does mean there is hope. The Tories will have a new leader next time, they will have had an EU referendum, there are five years of events and, as likely as not, a recession to get through. In short, a hell of a lot can change. And as we have seen, under FPTP in a multi-party system slight shifts can make a very big difference in seat numbers.
Failing Jarvis, I'd go for Kendall or maybe Creasey - someone not identified with the last government and someone with the ability to speak to non-Labour parts of the electorate. Chukka, I am afraid, is too London and too remote form middle England. he would lead Labour to defeat in 2020, without doubt.
What I found astounding was the way Labour didn't seem to realise that the very fact Ed was so popular in places like Islington was evidence that he would go down badly in the small town English marginals. What Labour needs is a leader that isn't loved in Islington, because Islington voters will vote Labour anyway. Talk about living in a bubble...
Tbh I don't think Ed was even popular in Islington. They voted Labour despite, not because.
I wonder how much Blair and Brown large number of Scottish ministers finally caught up with them in Scotland. They have been so London / media / HoC focused over a large number of years, I wonder how much they just have totally lost that contact with their own backyards.
Another thing...Cameron and all those Cornish holidays. It was said, well it is because he doesn't seem to want to look like a rich posho in times of austerity so he is staying in UK. I just wonder....where did the Tories manage to cream cracker the Lib Dems...South West.
hello again, everyone. I stayed off commenting duing the campaign, as otherwise engaged. I contemplated hiding behind the sofaafter Thursday, but there is so much dust behind there that I think I am better off out here. Pretty disastrous for us Lib Dems, swept away in a tide of anti-SNP/Labour feeling. Feel I did my duty as the candidate in Rochester & Strood, as Mr Reckless lost, which was my sole mission. Anyone who thinks this is the end for the Lib Dems is very much mistaken. 3500 new members since Thursday.
I wish them well. A strong third party (with more than regional ambitions) is a very useful thing to have in my view. I don't doubt it will a decade even to get back to 20ish seats, and that contingent upon not falling apart to nothing, but in the long run opportunity may present itself.
If anyone else had just steered their party to the brink of an existential crisis, masterminded the worst election campaign in history, got their boss sacked, alienated colleagues, looked like a complete and utter numpty on National TV, how might they have responded to this?
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive - the bad poll that Lucy Powell suppressed - to the fury of Iain McNicol. An obituary of Ed Miliband... http://t.co/ceR3eCQqsB
Do you think perhaps they might want to just STFU?
Not our Lucy...
@LucyMPowell: @SamCoatesTimes this is so wrong on so many levels. I will put the truth out there in my own time.
EDIT: It just occurred to me this is how tim thinks about George Osborne. Not only is it wrong, it is ungallant. I vow to leave Ms Powell alone now. Unless she does something even more ridiculous.
Is that a quote at all, as I'm getting a really weird sense of deja-vu at the sight of it on this subject for some reason.
SO Obama won suburban, middle America despite being a metropolitan liberal, no reason Umunna cannot win back some suburban middle class voters from the Tories either. UKIP's vote rose by 10% from 2010, the Tories was unchanged, Labour's vote only rose 1%. Clearly Labour lost some working class voters to UKIP as it gained some leftwing LDs it may have lost some to the Tories too as it did worse in working class marginals than suburban ones
That was me. Len leading Unite and a few of the other Jurassic unions off to form Real Labour would be a God send over the medium to long term, even if it was a real pain in the short term.
This guy might be a candidate
The most embarrassing part of the election? Seeing people mistake Labour for a left-wing party
From their stances on Trident and immigration to their support of extraordinary rendition, their progressive credentials are a joke
there was one man who did see a Tory victory coming: Jim Messina. The Obama guru and former White House deputy chief of staff was hired by the Tories for his data nuance and his substantial salary was clearly worth it. His firm Messina Quantitative Research provided provided accurate data from marginals throughout the campaign, which fed into Lynton Crosby’s campaign. According to Dan Balz in the Washington Post today, Messina’s internal data showed what all the British pollsters failed to report:
‘A week before the election, Messina’s internal projections showed the Tories on track to win 306 seats — far above any public poll at the time — though many races remained extremely close.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but there are some really interesting snippets out there of the below the waterline campaign that the Tories ran.
The Guardian leak about Tories spending crazy money on Facebook at the back end of 2014 and a C4 news segment from 8 month ago talking about Messina / Crosby locked in CCHQ from dawn until dusk (contrast that to Labour "guru" who did f##k all here in the UK).
youtube.com/watch?v=SeLzvhzh9PQ
From what I read is the Messina / Crosby thought 300+ for quite a long time, but 2 weeks out they had some bad numbers and got the wobbles. Then they gave Cameron a massive kick up the arse and we got "pumped up Dave". Good video, well worth watching. Interesting to get a brief view of how it all worked behind the scenes. Also a long video that Plato linked to on the last thread, is also worth watching.
"Despite getting a hammering Labour did get 9.3 million votes. I have not yet seen any analysis that demonstrates it lost a lot of working class votes to UKIP, though I accept that may well have been the case in some places."
Look at the first result to be declared:
Lab +4.8% UKIP + 18.8% Con -3.0% Green +2.8% LD -11.9%
UKIP vote up 19% but Tories only down 3%. So UKIP must have got most of their votes from Labour because UKIP wouldn't be taking many votes from the LDs. The swing would have been from LD to Lab, and then Lab to UKIP.
Would a bookie take on Lab winning Battersea and Con gaining Twickenham ???
Before the event was known a collapse of the Lib Dem vote to Labour could well have made Battersea go red and Twickenham go blue if that was the case.
They could have been two massively related contingencies... Surely no bookmaker would have touched it with a bargepole ?
Yep, my local Hills took it as a double after a phone call up the line. They were completely relaxed with the two singles. Let's be fair - the amount and liability wasn't massive but I know High Street bookmakers are ultra-cautious these days so I was ready to be knocked back.
Its a fair point. Renault-Nissan-AvtoVAZ have 36 plants all over Europe and Russia. These things would not happen overnight but the trend would be inevitable. Plus jobs which might come here will go somewhere else.
Then maybe they might not. 'Might' not. Then again when you are playing Russian Roulette you might not blow your head off.
People tend to be too black and white with such things.
What Nissan is most likely to do, is keep enough production going that it is still valuable for the UK Government to keep subsidising jobs (well tax breaks as direct subsidy is illegal naturally) in Sunderland while effectively running production down. This will be quite important if the UK refuses to join the EEA because of Shengen. In effect the Washington Plant will become a finishing shop. Effectively allowing un-tariffed imports of NIssans from other facilities to be Polished and sold on to the UK market.
So Nissan avoids any duties while the UK government "double pays" both with tax breaks and tax credits for the much lower wages a finishing shop commands compared to an actual manufacturing plant.
Same with the banks, they won't close their doors and vanish. They will just become an increasingly small part of the UK economy as the functions begin to move to Frankfurt and Paris.
It's hilarious how when the EU gets brought up you become a fully paid-up member of Project Fear.
hello again, everyone. I stayed off commenting duing the campaign, as otherwise engaged. I contemplated hiding behind the sofaafter Thursday, but there is so much dust behind there that I think I am better off out here. Pretty disastrous for us Lib Dems, swept away in a tide of anti-SNP/Labour feeling. Feel I did my duty as the candidate in Rochester & Strood, as Mr Reckless lost, which was my sole mission. Anyone who thinks this is the end for the Lib Dems is very much mistaken. 3500 new members since Thursday.
I wish them well. A strong third party (with more than regional ambitions) is a very useful thing to have in my view. I don't doubt it will a decade even to get back to 20ish seats, and that contingent upon not falling apart to nothing, but in the long run opportunity may present itself.
Nice sentiment, but they're done.
For a long time, definitely. But so long as they do not actually disband, they have nowhere to go but up. Glacially, and probably not even that for many years, but if those few places voted to retain them this time, what odds they won't do the same next time (barring Hallam, which might well shift), and there are still second places to try to build on next time.
Yes, this presents an optimistic assessment of their chances which might not occur, but as the party has been down to this low once before and rebuilt itself over many decades, I don't think they can categoricallybe stated to be done. Much will depend on whether the places where they were the traditional non-Tory opposition they have been replaced long term by UKIP or Labour, like here in the SW.
Comments
In fact, looking at my post I see I said 'EU leaders' - which I would use to refer to the collective of EU bureaucrats and Heads of Government, so in fact it was entirely accurate. How many times do we see a report that other governments are sick and tired of Britain moaning about the EU, even if they are not exactly happy with every aspect of it themselves? It's a lot.
As you say, convincing all of them could prove very hard. With the bureaucrats fundamentally committed to preventing it as well, I don't see how any person could manage to get meaningful change. Cameron needs to work a miracle, or sell the hell out of whatever bauble he manages to get. Makes a lot of sense - at times here in the SW it feels like even Labour candidates are a little blue, compared to elsewhere at least. If Cameron's Conservatives are generally liberal - and were often accused by their more right wing fellows of being a little too happy to do so and to be working with the LDs - then they probably fit exactly what a lot of those blue Liberals were looking for.
An election win meant he would always be favourite.
He is currently Deputy PM.
Cameron will offer the referendum pretty much on how things stand now. This renegotiation is just a 'ruse'.
If you took the perhaps unfair view that all the cheap online polling companies were an unknown quantity, and just ignored the recent entrants to the industry and ONLY looked at the major firms that we would have polling, in say 1992 who have been around for years....if instead the blizzard of polls you had only looked at the Ipsos Mori & ICM this is the picture that would have been painted ub tge run up to the election:
Election Day!
36 / 35 / 8 Tories +1
35 / 35/ 9 Tories tied
35 / 30 / 8 Tories + 5
35 / 32 / 9 Tories + 3
34 / 32 / 10 Tories +2
34 / 32 / 10 Tories +2
33 / 35 / 10 Labour +2
39 / 33 / 8 Tories +6
It's a rather different picture...sadly, I looked at the blizzard of polls instead and fell for it...
Are Ipsos Mori & ICM the firms to trust...and perhaps some of the others guilty of voodoo polling, burying inconvenient data etc etc...small poor samples...using too much weightings to compensate for dodgy samples...online etc...
We had alot of polls out...but what were the track record and rigour...if I had focussed on these two companies, there would have been a rather different picture of the election...
My first chance to comment two days after the night before so to speak. Plenty of recriminations, explanations and triumphalism flying about from some quarters (including those anxious to kick the corpse now it's down) but fortunately some graciousness and understanding.
I'll comment on what I think it means on my blog over the next few days but from a local and betting perspective - here in East Ham Stephen Timms increased his majority to over 34,000 on a 5% swing from the Conservatives. As predicted, UKIP just saved their deposit and as predicted all the other candidates lost theirs.
From a betting point of view, those who covered my 1-point double on LAB winning Battersea and CON taking Twickenham with two 1-point singles will have covered their outgoings while I also backed LAB to win Ilford North and LD 11-20 seats (ouch !!).
There will be an exodus of business function if we leave the Single Market. End of. The UK will not get a special deal, it will be EEA or nothing (including full Shengen).
By the way do your 2010 figures include the delayed Thirk & Malton election?
They should do. I think Con was 37.0% in GB in 2010 to one decimal place, not 36.9% as per your figures.
Bloody money-grabbing swine. F1's bigwigs sometimes need a bloody slap.
Before the event was known a collapse of the Lib Dem vote to Labour could well have made Battersea go red and Twickenham go blue if that was the case.
They could have been two massively related contingencies... Surely no bookmaker would have touched it with a bargepole ?
That's automotive manufacturer speak for could we have some bribes please.
So expect Osborne to do PMQs when Cameron absent.
Lord A has always been very cagey about this for some reason...
Telephone: ComRes, Mori
Online: YouGov, Survation.
twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/596933223000776704
(ICM were a below average phone pollster. Gold standard no more!)
If that's the EU's attitude, I would vote "out" - who wants to be in a relationship like that?
And that's coming from someone who is currently (borderline) "in"
If anyone else had just steered their party to the brink of an existential crisis, masterminded the worst election campaign in history, got their boss sacked, alienated colleagues, looked like a complete and utter numpty on National TV, how might they have responded to this?
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive - the bad poll that Lucy Powell suppressed - to the fury of Iain McNicol. An obituary of Ed Miliband... http://t.co/ceR3eCQqsB
Do you think perhaps they might want to just STFU?
Not our Lucy...
@LucyMPowell: @SamCoatesTimes this is so wrong on so many levels. I will put the truth out there in my own time.
EDIT: It just occurred to me this is how tim thinks about George Osborne. Not only is it wrong, it is ungallant. I vow to leave Ms Powell alone now. Unless she does something even more ridiculous.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kTlIUxSGQy4omeetoPMkMvlBnD-5Z0o_I2hb82n5ho4/edit#gid=0
I don't include Bercow's votes as Conservative which some organisations, such as the BBC, do. That may explain the 36.9% vs 37.0% discepancy.
The end result for you plan would be we would be in the EEA and could well be pushed into Schengen.
I do not have much of a problem with being in the EEA and moving there in an orderly manner from the EU might well avoid Schengen. But we will be in the single market and free movement of labour.
The EU is not going to go away and any deal with it will involve free movement of labour. We need to refine the rules whilst we are still in the EU and have a chance.
Samuel Knowles (@theboyknowles)
21/01/2015 23:18
@stellacreasy on QT re Gay marriage, you said 'if you don't like it, don't marry a man' & felt you were v clever. So if you don't like p3...
It is like BBC berk Yentob talking about making programmes for C2s and DEs. Most normal folk WTF...
On reflection perhaps that means he will shortly reveal that he has sacked everyone.
Some help.
I think Bercow is the answer.
In my view Bercow should be counted as Con - which is why that's what the BBC do - because Con get the benefit of Bercow's seat as Lab provide two Deputy Speakers to one for Con.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
These things would not happen overnight but the trend would be inevitable.
Plus jobs which might come here will go somewhere else.
Then maybe they might not. 'Might' not. Then again when you are playing Russian Roulette you might not blow your head off.
With a majority in his back pocket, it's deal or out. The other leaders know he isn't bluffing, because of the referendum, so they will negotiate.
As I said earlier, the FCO will relish taking on Juncker and Co, and Osborne will be a canny operator with the other politicos.
Cameron will come back with a deal... then it's down to us.
On a related issue; is there any clarity on whether Conservative MPs will be allowed to choose which side they are on when the referendum campaign starts - as happened with both Labour and Conservative in the 70s referendum?
But when it comes to votes I think it's better not to include him in the Con totals, although I can see that it's a bit of a paradox to do one and not the other.
Been busy watching the football scores. Does anyone else think that Tottenham and Southampton are deliberately trying to avoid playing in the Europa League?
Cameron wants to win the EU referendum and then retire undefeated. He'll bring back some meaningless tinsel and claim mission accomplished. I suspect he'll succeed and then hand over to his successor (tim's mate).
Labour could hardly have done worse than pick Ed last time so they have form.
Maria or Angela Eagle?
Despite getting a hammering Labour did get 9.3 million votes. I have not yet seen any analysis that demonstrates it lost a lot of working class votes to UKIP, though I accept that may well have been the case in some places. But clearly in places such as the North East and Merseyside - which are not stocked full of metropolitan luvvies and ethnic minorities - it retained and even built on such support. Put it this way, if Ed can get 9.3 million votes, despite losing Scotland, what could a normal kind of leader get?
That does not mean, of course, that Labour does not need a root and branch review of everything - it clearly does and it clearly needs to become more business friendly, more aspiration-friendly and more relaxed about Englishness - but it does mean there is hope. The Tories will have a new leader next time, they will have had an EU referendum, there are five years of events and, as likely as not, a recession to get through. In short, a hell of a lot can change. And as we have seen, under FPTP in a multi-party system slight shifts can make a very big difference in seat numbers.
Failing Jarvis, I'd go for Kendall or maybe Creasey - someone not identified with the last government and someone with the ability to speak to non-Labour parts of the electorate. Chukka, I am afraid, is too London and too remote form middle England. he would lead Labour to defeat in 2020, without doubt.
UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted - a lot of people and media and some politicians would break ranks to challenge that, so I think people will vote Out if asked.
Though I also thought Indy Yes would win last year and Labour would win this week. I'm either a fool or running several years ahead of the actual outcomes.
Pretty disastrous for us Lib Dems, swept away in a tide of anti-SNP/Labour feeling. Feel I did my duty as the candidate in Rochester & Strood, as Mr Reckless lost, which was my sole mission.
Anyone who thinks this is the end for the Lib Dems is very much mistaken. 3500 new members since Thursday.
Very fearful for the country now though. Tory government with a small majority, held captive by its right wing is where I came into politics 20 years ago.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but there are some really interesting snippets out there of the below the waterline campaign that the Tories ran.
The Guardian leak about Tories spending crazy money on Facebook at the back end of 2014 and a C4 news segment from 8 month ago talking about Messina / Crosby locked in CCHQ from dawn until dusk (contrast that to Labour "guru" who did f##k all here in the UK).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeLzvhzh9PQ
From what I read is the Messina / Crosby thought 300+ for quite a long time, but 2 weeks out they had some bad numbers and got the wobbles. Then they gave Cameron a massive kick up the arse and we got "pumped up Dave".
Arguably people voted for Blair (Pretty straight kinda guy), not Labour. They didn't really want to vote for Gordo but many used Polly's clothespegs, and even they couldn't stomach Ed
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tx4gNwsEZKk
Second part:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFPV5q_vvhg
I can't explain why the whole thing couldn't be uploaded in one video apart from the idiocy of the uploaders.
What Nissan is most likely to do, is keep enough production going that it is still valuable for the UK Government to keep subsidising jobs (well tax breaks as direct subsidy is illegal naturally) in Sunderland while effectively running production down. This will be quite important if the UK refuses to join the EEA because of Shengen. In effect the Washington Plant will become a finishing shop. Effectively allowing un-tariffed imports of NIssans from other facilities to be Polished and sold on to the UK market.
So Nissan avoids any duties while the UK government "double pays" both with tax breaks and tax credits for the much lower wages a finishing shop commands compared to an actual manufacturing plant.
Same with the banks, they won't close their doors and vanish. They will just become an increasingly small part of the UK economy as the functions begin to move to Frankfurt and Paris.
New gold standard = stick your finger in the air and guess, based on leadership ratings and other relevant variables.
If you have ever seen the film 'Wag the Dog', imagine the talking heads on TV in the final scenes
"UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted."
That's exactly what happened in 1975. I was a strong Europhile then, but even I thought the whole thing was a farce.
It will be interesting to see if Unite get Jim Murphy's head on a pole.
Or just listen to the PBTories, who are never wrong!
Only issue is that Con lose more votes than Lab - note that Lab would get some votes in Buckingham if they stood (though fewer than Con).
Though BBC numbers are inconsistent between 2010 and 2015!
But the leader only gets you so far, though. There has to be a level of credibility and cohesiveness about the policies too; which is why you don't want to be advocating a mansion tax or an energy price freeze. A better leader is not a substitute for a new direction, but it is a very good place from which to start the process.
Whoever leads Labour will not succeed unless the party is seen to embrace aspiration, the profit motive and Englishness as an identity. That does not preclude advocating social justice, solidarity and equality of opportunity, but it does mean showing you understand the modern world and can operate within it. Ed actually identified some major problems, what he could not do was ever find solutions. But that's what Labour needs.
Look at the first result to be declared:
Lab +4.8%
UKIP + 18.8%
Con -3.0%
Green +2.8%
LD -11.9%
UKIP vote up 19% but Tories only down 3%. So UKIP must have got most of their votes from Labour because UKIP wouldn't be taking many votes from the LDs. The swing would have been from LD to Lab, and then Lab to UKIP.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000754
(2015 VI: 2010 VI) = x @ 2010 percentage = Rough projection)
Con 293:304 = 0.9639 @ 40% = 39% (published 32%)
Lab 251:235 = 1.0680 @ 33% = 35% (published 38%)
So 39-35
Add a few for shy Tories, knock off a few for Labour voters all being unregistered, DE's, under 30 etc etc
Final Result 44:34
I wonder how much Blair and Brown large number of Scottish ministers finally caught up with them in Scotland. They have been so London / media / HoC focused over a large number of years, I wonder how much they just have totally lost that contact with their own backyards.
Another thing...Cameron and all those Cornish holidays. It was said, well it is because he doesn't seem to want to look like a rich posho in times of austerity so he is staying in UK. I just wonder....where did the Tories manage to cream cracker the Lib Dems...South West.
https://twitter.com/yes_dek/status/597018469876506624
This is news to me (I learnt it from #The_Apocalypse on this thread) and surely rather important?
Umunna Leader, Jarvis Deputy
The Guardian leak about Tories spending crazy money on Facebook at the back end of 2014 and a C4 news segment from 8 month ago talking about Messina / Crosby locked in CCHQ from dawn until dusk (contrast that to Labour "guru" who did f##k all here in the UK).
youtube.com/watch?v=SeLzvhzh9PQ
From what I read is the Messina / Crosby thought 300+ for quite a long time, but 2 weeks out they had some bad numbers and got the wobbles. Then they gave Cameron a massive kick up the arse and we got "pumped up Dave".
Good video, well worth watching. Interesting to get a brief view of how it all worked behind the scenes. Also a long video that Plato linked to on the last thread, is also worth watching.
'New gold standard = stick your finger in the air and guess, based on leadership ratings and other relevant variables.'
Just follow JackW's arse correct in both 2005 & 2010.
Problem is he's probably been deluged with offers from polling companies and may not be available next time around.
Of course, some of those LD votes could also have been working class - especially in a place like Sunderland.
On the main BBC News they're still leading with the SNP.
With hindsight, I wish I had been...
Nick Palmer -lol.
Yes, this presents an optimistic assessment of their chances which might not occur, but as the party has been down to this low once before and rebuilt itself over many decades, I don't think they can categoricallybe stated to be done. Much will depend on whether the places where they were the traditional non-Tory opposition they have been replaced long term by UKIP or Labour, like here in the SW.