SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.
SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.
My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.
I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:
Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.
Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
Yes, superb work.
My strategy was to just follow the tips of others who I view as somewhat shrewd and try to buy low, sell high on stuff like the Ed Miliband market, which covered back some losses on him and Balls on the fixed odds betting markets.
I also tried to bend the shape of my overall book and constituency portfolio so that 2 general results would land in profit:
1) Ed becoming PM 2) Labour getting a shellacking.
Providing SNP had a decent night
By election night I thought my Galloway bet was completely safe, and I'd written off Hastings and Rye, Sherwood and other constituency bets , I didn't know what on earth was going to happen with the Lib Dems so just covered all the bands.
My heavy hedging style ran me into actual cashflow issues shortly before the election and probably means I'm under money laundering investigations right now - but hey if I can get Labour and the Lib Dems laid at Evens in Thanet South, I'll take it.
I also believed the Ashcrofts far more where there was a Conservative lead, though I did do about £50 on Broxtowe and Bury North - as I wondered if shy Tories were a factor. Nearest to election day I just started making lots of long odds on constituency bets on the Conservatives as whilst I thought Labour might have a good night, 9-4 in Aberconwy was way too short so I got on the 4-9 etc etc... Thanks to Nabavi and Antifrank for pointing out a load of decent constituency bets. 1-4 Truro, 3-10 Sittingbourne, 3-10 Crawley felt like free money, and it really was to be honest.
The bad value winner of the night award must go to Nick Clegg, I thought Labour might have a chance so hedged pretty much up to Evens, a decision that was correct given he squeaked home.
Similiary the decent value loser of the night award must be Jo Swinson. Covering her was quite right in E Dunbartonshire. Hat tip to @Tissue_Price.
Mr. HYUFD, there are rather different constituencies.
Anyway, if you like Umunna or think he'd be good as Labour leader, super. I happen to think he'd be a very popular choice, with the SNP, Conservatives and UKIP.
Unions would never allow Liz Kendall because, well, she is sensible. Her "whatever works best" approach to public services (which is correct), is not accepted by many in the party - especially on the left.
The most significant damage by Ed Miliband was turning Labour's activists and grassroots far to the left.
On Scotland, FPT, there was some discussion whether putting on 20,000 extra votes was good or bad for the Tories given the increase in turnout, but that ignores tactical voting.
The usual turnips will dismiss this, but I have been informed that the Tory canvas returns for Edinburgh South showed nearly 1 in 2 registered Tories planning to vote against the SNP bampot.
The actual result would seem to validate that
Really? The Con vote in Edinburgh South was only down about 800 though turnout was up c.5500 (majority up from 316 to 2637). Unless there was a lot of churn or Tories who didn't vote in 2010, not sure how much validation can be found there.
The SNPout wheel of tactical fortune was such a balls up I'm sure there must have been a fair few tactical votes for the Cons round the country, obviously to not much effect.
Creasy the only feasible suggestion which would actually scare me, as a Tory.
Jarvis would be a tough opponent, but I don't think he'd win. Too backbencher.
Eagle (see Harman, H. See Calm down dear), Burnham (see Spad), Ummuna (see Miliband, E, North London establishment), D. Miliband (see Blair, T: People don't like those involved with Iraq), Cooper (see Miliband, E: People don't like to be told what to do) - all would be no threat for Cameron or the likely more MC/WC Tory leader who will take over 2019. I would LOVE Labour to select any of those.
SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.
SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.
My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.
I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:
Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.
Yeah, well done Calum - that 125/1 tip was incredible. I missed those odds, unfortunately
Anyway, it's a great cause that you're fundraising for & I've sent a tenner from my winnings your way.
All the best.
PS, have you had any media interest? I imagine one of the papers would love your story & you could get some free publicity for your fundraising campaign. Just an idea?
I am wondering how Harman will reshuffle the Shadow Cabinet for the coming weeks. It is uncharted territory for an opposition party to lose both Shadow Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Leader in the space of a few hours...
Labour need a serious rethink, they need a leader who can appeal to white working class voters above all else. They can pretty much take the poverty and poor immigrant vote for granted, but the WWC voters left to UKIP in droves. A softie Londoner with metropolitan instincts will not be able to reach out to these voters they badly need back in their tent. I hope for the sake of the country they can get someone who is actually decent, not another Kinnock clone or even a Blair clone for that matter.
The other problem is the complete dearth of talent in the party.
How do people rate Ian Murray? Getting a Scot into the top job may help stem the SNP tide.
He only got in by accident, after his SNP opponent was caught making offensive comments on social media under a pseudonym.
More than just that.
He was a hugely helped by tactical voting, he was in a low Yes seat so the initial hurdle to overcome was low, he was well known for helping Hearts in their time of trouble and the media completely misrepresented re-tweets by Neil Hay.
If the SNP had stood Michael Stewart in this seat, he would have romped home with 40% of the vote to Murray's 30%.
Not using Michael Stewart in one of the Edinburgh seats was a waste by the SNP. Perhaps they have him eyed up for Holyrood.
I think until a few days ago, wasn't it Lucy Powell?
Lucy was, is, and forever will remain, my favourite Labour campaign manager of all time, but even though I think the Labour party are collectively "not very smart", not even I think they are so completely mentally unhinged as to pick her for leader.
Fill your boots though...
Almost as competent as their 'Twitter' guru who broke electoral law - Bristol IIRC
Kerry McCarthy. Tweeted postal vote counts before polling day.
I am wondering how Harman will reshuffle the Shadow Cabinet for the coming weeks. It is uncharted territory for an opposition party to lose both Shadow Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Leader in the space of a few hours...
A very tricky balancing act
I'm assuming shadow junior ministers will be shoved into the spotlight.
I think until a few days ago, wasn't it Lucy Powell?
Lucy was, is, and forever will remain, my favourite Labour campaign manager of all time, but even though I think the Labour party are collectively "not very smart", not even I think they are so completely mentally unhinged as to pick her for leader.
Fill your boots though...
Almost as competent as their 'Twitter' guru who broke electoral law - Bristol IIRC
MD I have never voted anything other Tory or Liberal, I always knew Ed Miliband would lose, however Umunna can win, it is the suburban middle class who are the Labour-Tory swing voters the white working class vote increasingly UKIP or even Tory. Umunna can appeal to those middle class voters
We are a bit overdue for a string of by-elections in Tory-held seats so it’s not that unlikely that by mid 2017 Cameron’s majority will be well down into single figures – say 6 or even 4.
Younger politicians plus longer life expectancy means that by-elections are and should be incredibly rare now.
Perhaps that majority looks a bit smaller than I thought.
Only 3 of the resignations were from the Conservative benches - the two defectors to UKIP and Louise Bagshawe (Mench) from Corby who got married to an American and moved to the US.
"So when influence in the new Commons is divided up, it should be done so with consideration of votes cast – not seats won. Seldom has there been a worse relationship between the two."
Will the Tory backbenchers not play the part for the 80 or so UKIP MPs who should be there giving support to Dave under PR ?
ScottP But they do not have women only shortlists for either, so if a man wins both tough, if the next leader is a black man that should be enough anyway for the PC brigade
Forget all the polls, forget all the promises, there is one killer factor that is going to skew the result of the entire General Election: the utter, utter toxicity of the Labour leader Ed Miliband.
Even diehard Labour supporters can't stand the man. They don't really know why Miliband gives them the creeps, but they just loathe him.
The Toxic Miliband factor will not just be the pivot-point for the General Election, but also completely explains the seemingly unstoppable surge of the Scots Nats north of the border.
And I'm saying that despite all the predictions of the polls.
But then this is what I know: I know the polls are wrong.
MaxPB Nope, Labour's future victories will be built on winning over the centrist suburban middle class to add to public sector workers and ethnic minorities, eg Labour did better in Brighton and Hove, Chester and Hendon and Finchley on Thursday than they did in Rugby, Gower, Romford and Chatham. That was the coalition Obama built, most of the US white working class voted for McCain and Romney, Labour will need to do the same
No way. There just aren't enough people in those groups to put together 10m+ voters that they need to get close to power, especially now that their vote has become less efficient and with boundary changes imminent.
With stupid policies like the mansion tax and numerous pension raids there is no chance of winning over the suburban middle class and higher paid public sector workers. All I count in their group is the rump of their WWC core vote, immigrants, the non-working classes and students. None of those can be relied on to actually turn out to vote either. Labour need to start repairing the damage, not just let go of it all. The UK is not the US, the Conservatives are much closer to the Democrats in terms of policy and rhetoric, the suburban middle class will always favour the Tories and the higher paid public sector employees will as well. I don't think Labour can make inroads into these groups without waving goodbye to their core WWC voters forever which is probably a very bad idea.
Just collated my remaining political betting slips.
Turns out I'm on the three main LD leadership contenders for small stakes (although at decent odds) - and, for some reason I have a massive £50 bet @ 25/1 on Burnham for Lab leader dating back to 2013. Was that tipped on here?
Just surfacing from catching up on sleep - it was the most amazing result and from my point a perfect result. I cannot see how labour will progress without electing someone in the centre and not connected with the 2005-2010 labour years. The SNP will get much more devolution and that should result in stabilising the union as not everyone in Scotland agrees with the SNP by a long way. David Cameron' s now the most powerful leader in Europe having a firm mandate and even last night some German newspapers were saying that the EU will have to listen and it has
ScottP But they do not have women only shortlists for either, so if a man wins both tough, if the next leader is a black man that should be enough anyway for the PC brigade
If a man wins the leadership, only wimmin can stand for deputy (I think)
ScottP/AndyJS If Umunna and Jarvis are elected Leader and Deputy Leader by the Labour Party electoral college then women cannot complain. It is the same argument Hillary's supporters were making in 2008 that she had to be on the ticket, in the end most voted for Obama-Biden anyway
They can't be elected. labour's election rules state (as I understand it) that at least one of them must have ovaries. Of course 2 wimmin would be fine though
Maybe we could have an early Bill to remove the political exeptions that Hattie wrote into her "Equality" bill? - why should they not be subject to their own legislation given how many hoops so many other organisations have to jump through for compliance.
On second thoughts, just bin the lot of it, along with a pile more unnecessary bureaucracy aimed at business in general.
Forget all the polls, forget all the promises, there is one killer factor that is going to skew the result of the entire General Election: the utter, utter toxicity of the Labour leader Ed Miliband.
Even diehard Labour supporters can't stand the man. They don't really know why Miliband gives them the creeps, but they just loathe him.
The Toxic Miliband factor will not just be the pivot-point for the General Election, but also completely explains the seemingly unstoppable surge of the Scots Nats north of the border.
And I'm saying that despite all the predictions of the polls.
But then this is what I know: I know the polls are wrong.
As far as I can see there is no commentator who predicted a Tory Majority, SNP Wipeout of Everyone in Scotland AND the Extinction of the Liberal Democrats not just in this election but probably forever.
SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.
SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.
My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.
I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:
Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.
Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
Hear, hear, great Scottish tips & analysis from Calum & Antifrank. Honourable mentions for Pulpstar & Alistair also.
SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.
SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.
My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.
I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:
Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.
Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
Hear, hear, great Scottish tips & analysis from Calum & Antifrank. Honourable mentions for Pulpstar & Alistair also.
MaxPB Nope, Labour's future victories will be built on winning over the centrist suburban middle class to add to public sector workers and ethnic minorities, eg Labour did better in Brighton and Hove, Chester and Hendon and Finchley on Thursday than they did in Rugby, Gower, Romford and Chatham. That was the coalition Obama built, most of the US white working class voted for McCain and Romney, Labour will need to do the same
No way. There just aren't enough people in those groups to put together 10m+ voters that they need to get close to power, especially now that their vote has become less efficient and with boundary changes imminent.
With stupid policies like the mansion tax and numerous pension raids there is no chance of winning over the suburban middle class and higher paid public sector workers. All I count in their group is the rump of their WWC core vote, immigrants, the non-working classes and students. None of those can be relied on to actually turn out to vote either. Labour need to start repairing the damage, not just let go of it all. The UK is not the US, the Conservatives are much closer to the Democrats in terms of policy and rhetoric, the suburban middle class will always favour the Tories and the higher paid public sector employees will as well. I don't think Labour can make inroads into these groups without waving goodbye to their core WWC voters forever which is probably a very bad idea.
Labour certainly does better, relative to the Conservatives, in suburban London than it did 25 years ago. Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green, Harrow East, despite good Conservative performances on Thursday, remain marginal seats, whereas in 1992 they were very safe. Enfield Southgate is now almost a marginal seat. Ilford North and Enfield North will probably never be regained, and nor will Brent North. Ealing is gone for good.
But, I take your point that suburban London won't be enough to get Labour back into power. To do that, they really do have to regain Middle England and Wales.
Re my last post. The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe and the Commission are very fearful that other Countries will also want referendums and that the result this week is an earthquake through the Commission. With labour in disarray there is no appetite for another election and DC will have a clear run through to the referendum and I wouldn't bet on him not getting a lot of what he wants. Europe will change
@JananGanesh: Step 1 in Labour reform. Stop using the word "progressive". Doesn't mean anything to anyone not employed in politics or political media.
@PCollinsTimes: @JananGanesh As Maurice Glasman says the only things we apply the word "progressive" to are taxation and cancer.
Someone didn't get the memo...
And now, there is anger. Lots of it. Five terrible, wasted years, which have left Labour unelectable throughout most of the country. And now we need to have – again – that generational fight about the purpose of the Labour Party. Any progressive candidate for the Leadership has to be prepared to face down the regressive forces in the Party. They have to be prepared to for lots of angry-protest-activists to walk away, they have to be prepared for a showdown with the unions, and they have to be strong enough to fight those within the Party who will keep Labour out of power for a generation.
There are those (of us) in the Labour Party who see winning power as pretty fundamental to fulfilling Labour’s moral purpose. There are those who believe that winning power is a compromise too far with the electorate. And there are those, like Ed MIliband, who certainly recognise that winning power is necessary but, through what appears to be an almost superhuman capacity for cognitive dissonance, insist Labour wheels out the same unelectable offer to the electorate again and again and again.
Mr. NorthWales, why d'you say the EU was expecting Miliband? Because of the polls?
Mr. Scrapheap, Hunt? Probably not quite as bad as Umunna.
Incidentally, I think Cameron will resign after the EU referendum. He'll either go out on a high, or bow out after defeat. Plus, two to three years in is enough time for a new leader to establish themselves without becoming old hat (both Cameron and Miliband, as opposition leaders, probably suffered from being in the job too long and losing all sense of newness).
That's a pretty good call Morris, I'm on the Lotus points finish bets, several cars in front have reliability issues and they have the best engines. I'm not sure I would post the lap time data on your site though, better to link to it on the BBC (for the same reason we don't copy articles from the Times).
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Ms Creasey was rude and misandrist to me on Twitter when she thought I was a bloke.
No going back there for me.
I used to follow Ms Creasy on Twitter when her name was first mentioned as one to watch.
I follow quite a lot of people on Twitter (you'd never guess, right?) many of whom I disagree with, some of whom make me swear at the screen with every tweet, but not even I could stomach the constant stream of consciousness bullshit from Stella
On polling crisis, and Survatoin burying poll that put them off-consensus...just saw this link from Guardian to a Nat Silver blog from last year which I missed this time...looking at the polling armageddon, it seems prescient and even appears to highlight academic evidence that online polls are massaged/tampered on account of reputational risk-aversion..I feel declining print media budgets could also be part of all this:
It's an American context, but presumably the conclusions are relevant here too?
"Another tactic is for a pollster to copy off its neighbors. As my colleague Harry Enten described earlier this month, and as other researchers have found, robopolls and other polls that take methodological shortcuts show better results when there are also traditional, live-interviewer polls surveying the same races. The cheap polls may “herd” off stronger polls, tweaking their results to match them. This can make them superficially more accurate, but they add little value. Where there are better polls available, the cheap poll duplicates the results already in hand. Where there aren’t, the cheap poll may stray far from an accurate and representative sample of the race.
Then there are the companies that have cheated in a much more explicit way: by fabricating data. There is strong evidence that Strategic Vision and Research 2000 faked some or all of their survey results. The odds are that there are more firms out there like them."
The polls weren't that wrong actually because many of them had figures of 34% each with a 3% margin of error. If you apply that margin of error, it's possible to get 37% and 31% which is very close to the result. The problem is people often forget about the 3% margin of error.
That's not how MOE works. There is only a 5% probability of the true distribution being 37-30 if the poll is saying 34-34. The chance of that happening every poll is minute.
I don't copy graphics, I'm just entering the numbers (manually, as it were). The numbers are publicly available. I don't see the difference between doing that and writing "Hamilton was a tenth ahead of Vettel".
If there is a reason to no longer include them, please do let me know and I'll refrain from doing so. I only include the tables now because the redesigned F1 site is so bloody awful it contains practically no information and I want to be able to check the numbers myself in the future.
Labour's problem for the leadership is that the postie doesn't want the job.
Chuka might be alright though doubt he'll appeal much outside London. Perhaps Jarvis - he's an unknown though so might find it hard. I think they'll go with Burnham, Hunt would be the Conservatives prefferred choice though I reckon.
Farron surely for the LDs - Lamb and Carmichael are too tainted by the Tories.
Calum, you surely win the award for tip of the election for the 125/1 Lab 0-5 seats in Scotland. Which bookie's now helping you pay your mortgage off early?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Well we are back to the question, "Is Cameron actually quite a good politician after all?" given the number of "career ending mistakes" he has survived and the number of "impossible" results he has pulled off.
Maybe he is just lucky, which in politics, as in war, is at least as good.
I am wondering how Harman will reshuffle the Shadow Cabinet for the coming weeks. It is uncharted territory for an opposition party to lose both Shadow Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Leader in the space of a few hours...
A very tricky balancing act
Another reason why Miliband should have remained in post until his successor was elected, as Howard did in 2005, rather than abandoning ship.
Mr. NorthWales, why d'you say the EU was expecting Miliband? Because of the polls?
Mr. Scrapheap, Hunt? Probably not quite as bad as Umunna.
Incidentally, I think Cameron will resign after the EU referendum. He'll either go out on a high, or bow out after defeat. Plus, two to three years in is enough time for a new leader to establish themselves without becoming old hat (both Cameron and Miliband, as opposition leaders, probably suffered from being in the job too long and losing all sense of newness).
Yes - the polls gave everyone including Europe the clear view that there was a very good chance of a very friendly UK labour government. I see that Survation produced an almost identical poll to the result on the 6th May but I understand it was pulled from publication. Why would that be, and for future elections polls are going to have to have tighter controls, not least because a lot of money is influenced by them
Re my last post. The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe and the Commission are very fearful that other Countries will also want referendums and that the result this week is an earthquake through the Commission. With labour in disarray there is no appetite for another election and DC will have a clear run through to the referendum and I wouldn't bet on him not getting a lot of what he wants. Europe will change
Yes, the EU were hoping that the 'problem' would go away, but it's just come back with interest added!
Dave knows he'll be up against it with his party, and that if there's not serious reform and a clear change in direction from the EU he'll have to suggest we vote out.
SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.
SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.
My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.
I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:
Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.
Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
The Greens and the Tories look likely to provide the value. The SNP constituency:Green list vote will be a mega story that sets electoral reform in the UK even further back.
It cements the idea that electoral reform is a fix, just as the no to AV campaign argued it was a fix to save the Liberal Democrats. Combined with the Tories winning a majority again I'd say it probably kills electoral reform for another century.
It was the Unions that chose Ed Miliband. The parliamentary party chose David Miliband. This time they'll be having one-member, one-vote - which should minimise the union influence.
So they will, following the Collins Review last year. I didn't know that till now. What was all that about?
I have gorged on good news for 2 days now, stuffed myself with delicious morsels, one after another, till I thought I could take no more..
..but, there may just be room for this 'waffer theen meent'
Shortly before the explosive 10pm exit poll was broadcast on Thursday night, Ed Miliband was working on his ‘victory’ speech at his detached constituency home in a pretty south Yorkshire village.
The polls weren't that wrong actually because many of them had figures of 34% each with a 3% margin of error. If you apply that margin of error, it's possible to get 37% and 31% which is very close to the result. The problem is people often forget about the 3% margin of error.
That's not how MOE works. There is only a 5% probability of the true distribution being 37-30 if the poll is saying 34-34. The chance of that happening every poll is minute.
I reckon people lie. They don't mean to lie, but they'll tell a pollster they're going to vote Labour and then not bother to go to the polling station. Similiarly undecideds aren't undecided, they'll just go with the cling to nurse option/incumbent at the polling booth particularly if the opposition leader has weak ratings.
Bill Coles has nailed it. ~ Also heard on the radio earlier that the Lib Dems joining the coalition gave blue liberals in places like Yeovil the green light to vote Tory at the election. True as well I reckon - the Lib Dems detoxed the Tories and took the toxification on themselves.
Mr. NorthWales, why d'you say the EU was expecting Miliband? Because of the polls?
Mr. Scrapheap, Hunt? Probably not quite as bad as Umunna.
Incidentally, I think Cameron will resign after the EU referendum. He'll either go out on a high, or bow out after defeat. Plus, two to three years in is enough time for a new leader to establish themselves without becoming old hat (both Cameron and Miliband, as opposition leaders, probably suffered from being in the job too long and losing all sense of newness).
Yes - the polls gave everyone including Europe the clear view that there was a very good chance of a very friendly UK labour government. I see that Survation produced an almost identical poll to the result on the 6th May but I understand it was pulled from publication. Why would that be, and for future elections polls are going to have to have tighter controls, not least because a lot of money is influenced by them
Cameron winning sent a shock through much of the EU leadership. Based on the media, they would have thought they were rid of him.
Now it's Renegotiation Time, with the real teeth of a referendum to back it up.
SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.
SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.
My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.
I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:
Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.
Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
I predict there will be very litlle value but who knows what will happen between now and then.
Opening prices for Orkney and Zetland will be interesting.
The betting question of 2016 is: was the SNP vote evenly split between Orkney and Shetland?
I imagine a lot of money to be made if you knew the answer to that question.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Agree with this, and I can't believe anyone can think Cameron is more powerful in Europe than Merkel.
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Well we are back to the question, "Is Cameron actually quite a good politician after all?" given the number of "career ending mistakes" he has survived and the number of "impossible" results he has pulled off.
Maybe he is just lucky, which in politics, as in war, is at least as good.
Indeed. I'll not write off the possibility purely on that basis
Mr. NorthWales, why d'you say the EU was expecting Miliband? Because of the polls?
Mr. Scrapheap, Hunt? Probably not quite as bad as Umunna.
Incidentally, I think Cameron will resign after the EU referendum. He'll either go out on a high, or bow out after defeat. Plus, two to three years in is enough time for a new leader to establish themselves without becoming old hat (both Cameron and Miliband, as opposition leaders, probably suffered from being in the job too long and losing all sense of newness).
Agreed. He wasn't planning on running in 2020 anyway he says, so winning the EU referendum would be a good high to go out on, defeating the doubters in his own party, and allowing someone else to take the party forward after 'this divisive period' or whatever, as well as allowing a decent run in to 2020.
Although maybe if he won he'd say he'll stand aside for a new leader in a year or so (it being only 2 years or so after the public re-elected him after all), to allow the party appropriate time to make sure it picked the right leader, and then reluctantly he throw his hat back in and to stay on in 2020 after a groundswell of support to stay?
Just collated my remaining political betting slips.
Turns out I'm on the three main LD leadership contenders for small stakes (although at decent odds) - and, for some reason I have a massive £50 bet @ 25/1 on Burnham for Lab leader dating back to 2013. Was that tipped on here?
Should I lay off, or let it ride...?
Hmm.
Yes - it was a major tip on here - main thread article I think - by "henry manson" I THINK - may have spelt the name slightly wrongly?
He is the Labour insider who tipped Ed Miliband to win last time.
Max PB Disagree on most of that, the suburban middle class now make up more of the electorate than the white working class, and the suburban middle class happily voted for Blair. Boundary changes will increase the number of suburban seats at the expense of urban seats, my premise still holds. Umunna is a Blairite and more fiscally conservative than Miliband eg he has said the 50% tax rate is not a long-term aim as well as being socially liberal, he is an ideal candidate to win their votes. Demographic change in the UK mirrors that in the US and indeed most of the western world, the core vote of centre left parties is now made up of public sector workers, those on welfare, immigrants and ethnic minorities and students, the swing voters are middle class suburban voters, the white working class increasingly vote for populist parties from UKIP to Front National to the Tea Party
Mr. Sandpit, what's wrong with the data? I don't copy graphics, I'm just entering the numbers (manually, as it were). The numbers are publicly available. I don't see the difference between doing that and writing "Hamilton was a tenth ahead of Vettel". If there is a reason to no longer include them, please do let me know and I'll refrain from doing so. I only include the tables now because the redesigned F1 site is so bloody awful it contains practically no information and I want to be able to check the numbers myself in the future.
MD, the 'numbers' on their site are behind the new F1 paywall, that's why I mentioned it as they'll probably go after people publishing them who aren't paying for the privilege. The Premier League copyright and sell their fixture lists and there was a case a few years back about data on horse races being copyrightable.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Mr. NorthWales, why d'you say the EU was expecting Miliband? Because of the polls?
Mr. Scrapheap, Hunt? Probably not quite as bad as Umunna.
Incidentally, I think Cameron will resign after the EU referendum. He'll either go out on a high, or bow out after defeat. Plus, two to three years in is enough time for a new leader to establish themselves without becoming old hat (both Cameron and Miliband, as opposition leaders, probably suffered from being in the job too long and losing all sense of newness).
The next election could possibly be Miliband Proper vs Boris, that would be fun!
SeanF Agree, but suburban and city seats like Worcester, Wirral West, Chester, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North etc offer better prospects for Labour across the UK than working class seats like Chatham, Romford, Rugby and Brigg which had large Tory majorities on Thursday
Ms Creasey was rude and misandrist to me on Twitter when she thought I was a bloke.
No going back there for me.
I used to follow Ms Creasy on Twitter when her name was first mentioned as one to watch.
I follow quite a lot of people on Twitter (you'd never guess, right?) many of whom I disagree with, some of whom make me swear at the screen with every tweet, but not even I could stomach the constant stream of consciousness bullshit from Stella
I have gorged on good news for 2 days now, stuffed myself with delicious morsels, one after another, till I thought I could take no more..
..but, there may just be room for this 'waffer theen meent'
Shortly before the explosive 10pm exit poll was broadcast on Thursday night, Ed Miliband was working on his ‘victory’ speech at his detached constituency home in a pretty south Yorkshire village.
And now, perhaps, a bucket... Lovely, pure essence of schadenfreude. Someone needs to make a film portraying ed's final days, called something like Falldown.
The polls weren't that wrong actually because many of them had figures of 34% each with a 3% margin of error. If you apply that margin of error, it's possible to get 37% and 31% which is very close to the result. The problem is people often forget about the 3% margin of error.
That's not how MOE works. There is only a 5% probability of the true distribution being 37-30 if the poll is saying 34-34. The chance of that happening every poll is minute.
I reckon people lie. They don't mean to lie, but they'll tell a pollster they're going to vote Labour and then not bother to go to the polling station. Similiarly undecideds aren't undecided, they'll just go with the cling to nurse option/incumbent at the polling booth particularly if the opposition leader has weak ratings.
Bill Coles has nailed it. ~ Also heard on the radio earlier that the Lib Dems joining the coalition gave blue liberals in places like Yeovil the green light to vote Tory at the election. True as well I reckon - the Lib Dems detoxed the Tories and took the toxification on themselves.
The pollsters have built methods to deal with don't knows and refused-to-says. Dealing with misreporting is far trickier.
The hubris - on the pollsters' behalf, not from the pollsters - was absolutely astonishing, never more so than on here.
"That was 1992 and things have changed." Yes, they've built a cheap online approach instead!
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Wasn't much the same said if we didn't join the €?
MaxPB Nope, Labour's future victories will be built on winning over the centrist suburban middle class to add to public sector workers and ethnic minorities, eg Labour did better in Brighton and Hove, Chester and Hendon and Finchley on Thursday than they did in Rugby, Gower, Romford and Chatham. That was the coalition Obama built, most of the US white working class voted for McCain and Romney, Labour will need to do the same
In 5 years time there will be 500,000 fewer public sector workers.
It's a pity we can't see the faces of the party leaders as the exit poll is announced. By the time we see them at their respective counts everyone already knows what's going to happen.
I have gorged on good news for 2 days now, stuffed myself with delicious morsels, one after another, till I thought I could take no more..
..but, there may just be room for this 'waffer theen meent'
Shortly before the explosive 10pm exit poll was broadcast on Thursday night, Ed Miliband was working on his ‘victory’ speech at his detached constituency home in a pretty south Yorkshire village.
SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.
SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.
My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.
I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:
Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.
Yeah, well done Calum - that 125/1 tip was incredible. I missed those odds, unfortunately
Anyway, it's a great cause that you're fundraising for & I've sent a tenner from my winnings your way.
All the best.
PS, have you had any media interest? I imagine one of the papers would love your story & you could get some free publicity for your fundraising campaign. Just an idea?
Hi Pong - Many thanks. I've had a bit of local media interest and some backing from Chris Hoy, but as yet none of the national papers have shown any interest, I'd better start being nice about them now the election is over !! - Calum.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Harman could do worse than take a leaf out of Howard's book. He gave proper jobs to Osborne (Shad CoE) and Cameron (Shad Education) in the interregnum, allowing them space and opportunity to show their strengths. Give all the contenders a top role, set them free, and see what happens at Conference in the Autumn. If Howard had not done this, David Davis would have been leader with hardly a contest, because he was the only one the members had heard of. Give the members a catwalk show, and let the 'talent' show off.
Bill Coles has nailed it. ~ Also heard on the radio earlier that the Lib Dems joining the coalition gave blue liberals in places like Yeovil the green light to vote Tory at the election. True as well I reckon - the Lib Dems detoxed the Tories and took the toxification on themselves.
I think that's absolutely right, and wonderfully ironic. Do not forget, as well, that UKIP also helped detoxify the Tory brand, by allowing Cameron to say - effectively - "Unlike UKIP, we do not want to privatise the NHS." (Ignoring, of course, that UKIP don't actually want to do that...)
One thing that shocked me was even after 9 pm, when there must've been plenty of info coming in that the Tories were doing very well - one of the bookies even announced they were paying out on Tories Most Seats - you could still get 3/1 on Tories 300+ seats. There was easy money available for anyone paying attention.
I'm assuming Cameron will go after the referendum on the basis that he said he will only do five more years. In 2020, they can't go into the election with a completely new leader and he or she will need a bedding in period, surely?
Mr Dancer, sorry, just seen your post - great minds think alike - or something like that.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What the BOOers do understand is that we have heard this scaremongering bullshit time and again, and each time the complete opposite has happened.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What you don't understand is that none of those big corporate prizes will move just because we leave the EU as long as we remain in the EEA. They didn't choose the UK just because we were in the EU although access to the single market is clearly a factor in such decisions. They choose the UK because of our taxation policies and general attitude to business. This is why the threat of a properly left wing government is far more likely to cause business to leave the UK than a move from EU to EEA status.
Lots of multinational firms claimed they would leave the UK if we didn't join the single currency. None did.
The best bit is this: "He ordered Lord Wood, his head of strategy who was at his side, to send a message to shadow cabinet ministers not to be triumphalist on the television and radio as the night wore on. When the exit poll came through, Miliband was stunned. He was holding his head in his hands, and shouting at the television that the forecast must be wrong."
I have gorged on good news for 2 days now, stuffed myself with delicious morsels, one after another, till I thought I could take no more..
..but, there may just be room for this 'waffer theen meent'
Shortly before the explosive 10pm exit poll was broadcast on Thursday night, Ed Miliband was working on his ‘victory’ speech at his detached constituency home in a pretty south Yorkshire village.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
What you don't understand is that none of those big corporate prizes will move just because we leave the EU as long as we remain in the EEA. They didn't choose the UK just because we were in the EU although access to the single market is clearly a factor in such decisions. They choose the UK because of our taxation policies and general attitude to business. This is why the threat of a properly left wing government is far more likely to cause business to leave the UK than a move from EU to EEA status.
Lots of multinational firms claimed they would leave the UK if we didn't join the single currency. None did.
It's about as credible as all those bankers who haven't cleared off yet.
GIN1138 He got Scotland pretty right, like the national polls, but overestimated Labour's gains in England and Wales as much as the national polls. Indeed one of his national polls was actually more accurate than all his English and Welsh marginal polls put together, he would have been better just to apply UNS from that
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Wasn't much the same said if we didn't join the €?
Countless businesses came out in the late 90s and early 2000s claiming that the UK not joining the euro would be a complete disaster and they will leave. Not only were they wrong about not joining the euro being a disaster but they havn't left either.
It was rather amusing when the boss of Tesco stated leaving the EU would be bad for business. Days later Tesco announce one of the largest losses in UK history.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What Angela Merkel wants is no more important than what Victor Ponta or Boyko Borissov want. Whatever deal is made still has to be passed by every single one of the EU members. If any one of them decides to block it then the deal is off.
FlightPathL Again that does not undermine my premise Labour need the suburban middle classes to win, most of them work in the private sector. A further decline in their public sector core vote does not change that
Comments
They do, after all, have a gender segregated day at conference.
My strategy was to just follow the tips of others who I view as somewhat shrewd and try to buy low, sell high on stuff like the Ed Miliband market, which covered back some losses on him and Balls on the fixed odds betting markets.
I also tried to bend the shape of my overall book and constituency portfolio so that 2 general results would land in profit:
1) Ed becoming PM
2) Labour getting a shellacking.
Providing SNP had a decent night
By election night I thought my Galloway bet was completely safe, and I'd written off Hastings and Rye, Sherwood and other constituency bets , I didn't know what on earth was going to happen with the Lib Dems so just covered all the bands.
My heavy hedging style ran me into actual cashflow issues shortly before the election and probably means I'm under money laundering investigations right now - but hey if I can get Labour and the Lib Dems laid at Evens in Thanet South, I'll take it.
I also believed the Ashcrofts far more where there was a Conservative lead, though I did do about £50 on Broxtowe and Bury North - as I wondered if shy Tories were a factor. Nearest to election day I just started making lots of long odds on constituency bets on the Conservatives as whilst I thought Labour might have a good night, 9-4 in Aberconwy was way too short so I got on the 4-9 etc etc... Thanks to Nabavi and Antifrank for pointing out a load of decent constituency bets. 1-4 Truro, 3-10 Sittingbourne, 3-10 Crawley felt like free money, and it really was to be honest.
The bad value winner of the night award must go to Nick Clegg, I thought Labour might have a chance so hedged pretty much up to Evens, a decision that was correct given he squeaked home.
Similiary the decent value loser of the night award must be Jo Swinson. Covering her was quite right in E Dunbartonshire. Hat tip to @Tissue_Price.
Anyway, if you like Umunna or think he'd be good as Labour leader, super. I happen to think he'd be a very popular choice, with the SNP, Conservatives and UKIP.
The most significant damage by Ed Miliband was turning Labour's activists and grassroots far to the left.
Fraser Nelson tries here : -
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/fraser-nelson/2015/05/with-56-snps-and-just-one-ukip-mp-how-can-the-commons-reflect-the-uks-political-will/
The SNPout wheel of tactical fortune was such a balls up I'm sure there must have been a fair few tactical votes for the Cons round the country, obviously to not much effect.
Jarvis would be a tough opponent, but I don't think he'd win. Too backbencher.
Eagle (see Harman, H. See Calm down dear), Burnham (see Spad), Ummuna (see Miliband, E, North London establishment), D. Miliband (see Blair, T: People don't like those involved with Iraq), Cooper (see Miliband, E: People don't like to be told what to do) - all would be no threat for Cameron or the likely more MC/WC Tory leader who will take over 2019. I would LOVE Labour to select any of those.
Anyway, it's a great cause that you're fundraising for & I've sent a tenner from my winnings your way.
All the best.
PS, have you had any media interest? I imagine one of the papers would love your story & you could get some free publicity for your fundraising campaign. Just an idea?
Betting PostHard to call, but went for Lotus to double score at 4. Reasoning and more musing here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/spain-pre-race.html
A very tricky balancing act
He was a hugely helped by tactical voting, he was in a low Yes seat so the initial hurdle to overcome was low, he was well known for helping Hearts in their time of trouble and the media completely misrepresented re-tweets by Neil Hay.
If the SNP had stood Michael Stewart in this seat, he would have romped home with 40% of the vote to Murray's 30%.
Not using Michael Stewart in one of the Edinburgh seats was a waste by the SNP. Perhaps they have him eyed up for Holyrood.
I know it sounds nuts, but Umanna or Reeves in my view.
Worth watching the early stuff just to see all the Labour politicians claiming "David Cameron has lost his majority..."
Will the Tory backbenchers not play the part for the 80 or so UKIP MPs who should be there giving support to Dave under PR ?
Mr. Omnium. I agree. It does sound nuts.
With stupid policies like the mansion tax and numerous pension raids there is no chance of winning over the suburban middle class and higher paid public sector workers. All I count in their group is the rump of their WWC core vote, immigrants, the non-working classes and students. None of those can be relied on to actually turn out to vote either. Labour need to start repairing the damage, not just let go of it all. The UK is not the US, the Conservatives are much closer to the Democrats in terms of policy and rhetoric, the suburban middle class will always favour the Tories and the higher paid public sector employees will as well. I don't think Labour can make inroads into these groups without waving goodbye to their core WWC voters forever which is probably a very bad idea.
Turns out I'm on the three main LD leadership contenders for small stakes (although at decent odds) - and, for some reason I have a massive £50 bet @ 25/1 on Burnham for Lab leader dating back to 2013. Was that tipped on here?
Should I lay off, or let it ride...?
Hmm.
Or Jack Dromey... (that's just for you, Neil)
On second thoughts, just bin the lot of it, along with a pile more unnecessary bureaucracy aimed at business in general.
Interesting take but he still hasn't "called it".
As far as I can see there is no commentator who predicted a Tory Majority, SNP Wipeout of Everyone in Scotland AND the Extinction of the Liberal Democrats not just in this election but probably forever.
But, I take your point that suburban London won't be enough to get Labour back into power. To do that, they really do have to regain Middle England and Wales.
Dream ticket of burnham/eagle for LotO...
Or
Hunt/eagle other one
So many combi's, so much fun.
@PCollinsTimes: @JananGanesh As Maurice Glasman says the only things we apply the word "progressive" to are taxation and cancer.
Someone didn't get the memo... http://noramulready.com/2015/05/09/labour/
Mr. Scrapheap, Hunt? Probably not quite as bad as Umunna.
Incidentally, I think Cameron will resign after the EU referendum. He'll either go out on a high, or bow out after defeat. Plus, two to three years in is enough time for a new leader to establish themselves without becoming old hat (both Cameron and Miliband, as opposition leaders, probably suffered from being in the job too long and losing all sense of newness).
I'm not sure I would post the lap time data on your site though, better to link to it on the BBC (for the same reason we don't copy articles from the Times).
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
I follow quite a lot of people on Twitter (you'd never guess, right?) many of whom I disagree with, some of whom make me swear at the screen with every tweet, but not even I could stomach the constant stream of consciousness bullshit from Stella
It's an American context, but presumably the conclusions are relevant here too?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-polling-industry-in-stasis-or-in-crisis/
"Another tactic is for a pollster to copy off its neighbors. As my colleague Harry Enten described earlier this month, and as other researchers have found, robopolls and other polls that take methodological shortcuts show better results when there are also traditional, live-interviewer polls surveying the same races. The cheap polls may “herd” off stronger polls, tweaking their results to match them. This can make them superficially more accurate, but they add little value. Where there are better polls available, the cheap poll duplicates the results already in hand. Where there aren’t, the cheap poll may stray far from an accurate and representative sample of the race.
Then there are the companies that have cheated in a much more explicit way: by fabricating data. There is strong evidence that Strategic Vision and Research 2000 faked some or all of their survey results. The odds are that there are more firms out there like them."
That's not how MOE works. There is only a 5% probability of the true distribution being 37-30 if the poll is saying 34-34. The chance of that happening every poll is minute.
I don't copy graphics, I'm just entering the numbers (manually, as it were). The numbers are publicly available. I don't see the difference between doing that and writing "Hamilton was a tenth ahead of Vettel".
If there is a reason to no longer include them, please do let me know and I'll refrain from doing so. I only include the tables now because the redesigned F1 site is so bloody awful it contains practically no information and I want to be able to check the numbers myself in the future.
Chuka might be alright though doubt he'll appeal much outside London. Perhaps Jarvis - he's an unknown though so might find it hard. I think they'll go with Burnham, Hunt would be the Conservatives prefferred choice though I reckon.
Farron surely for the LDs - Lamb and Carmichael are too tainted by the Tories.
Which bookie's now helping you pay your mortgage off early?
Maybe he is just lucky, which in politics, as in war, is at least as good.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/08/labour-failure-low-paid-will-suffer
Dave knows he'll be up against it with his party, and that if there's not serious reform and a clear change in direction from the EU he'll have to suggest we vote out.
..but, there may just be room for this 'waffer theen meent' Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074175/Ed-writing-victory-speech-came-exit-poll-ANDREW-PIERCE-reflects-catastrophic-night-Labour-leader.html
And now, perhaps, a bucket...
paul cunningham @curryman48 2h2 hours ago
RT @Kent_Online: BREAKING: Ukip wins control of its first ever UK council at #Thanet http://www.kentonline.co.uk/thanet/news/ukip-wins-first-uk-council-36658/ …
Ukip wins Thanet district council
Nigel Farage was celebrating today after Ukip won its first UK council.
I reckon people lie. They don't mean to lie, but they'll tell a pollster they're going to vote Labour and then not bother to go to the polling station. Similiarly undecideds aren't undecided, they'll just go with the cling to nurse option/incumbent at the polling booth particularly if the opposition leader has weak ratings.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/bill-coles/general-election-predictions_b_7187604.html
Bill Coles has nailed it.
~
Also heard on the radio earlier that the Lib Dems joining the coalition gave blue liberals in places like Yeovil the green light to vote Tory at the election. True as well I reckon - the Lib Dems detoxed the Tories and took the toxification on themselves.
Cameron winning sent a shock through much of the EU leadership. Based on the media, they would have thought they were rid of him.
Now it's Renegotiation Time, with the real teeth of a referendum to back it up.
Should be fun.
I imagine a lot of money to be made if you knew the answer to that question.
For example, Knowsley with 39,628:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000775
East Ham: 40,563
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000679
Bootle: 33,619
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000581
Although maybe if he won he'd say he'll stand aside for a new leader in a year or so (it being only 2 years or so after the public re-elected him after all), to allow the party appropriate time to make sure it picked the right leader, and then reluctantly he throw his hat back in and to stay on in 2020 after a groundswell of support to stay?
He is the Labour insider who tipped Ed Miliband to win last time.
The Premier League copyright and sell their fixture lists and there was a case a few years back about data on horse races being copyrightable.
Cannock Chase, Ashcroft poll — April 2015:
Lab 38%, Con 32%, UKIP 21%, LD 5%, Greens 3%, Oth 1%.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/cannock-chase-2/
Result:
Con 44%, Lab 34%, UKIP 17.5%, LD 3%, Greens 1%.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000618
Difference:
Con +12%, Lab -4%, UKIP -3.5%, LD -3%, Greens -2%.
Thanks for letting me know. I'll remove them promptly.
Con 318, inc 4 in Scotland
Lab 212, inc 10 in Scotland
SNP 44
UKIP 39, inc 3 in Wales
LD 14
Grn 3
PC 2
Depending on the implementation, LDs and Plaid might have done slightly better.
And now, perhaps, a bucket...
Lovely, pure essence of schadenfreude. Someone needs to make a film portraying ed's final days, called something like Falldown.
The hubris - on the pollsters' behalf, not from the pollsters - was absolutely astonishing, never more so than on here.
"That was 1992 and things have changed." Yes, they've built a cheap online approach instead!
Give all the contenders a top role, set them free, and see what happens at Conference in the Autumn.
If Howard had not done this, David Davis would have been leader with hardly a contest, because he was the only one the members had heard of.
Give the members a catwalk show, and let the 'talent' show off.
Mr Dancer, sorry, just seen your post - great minds think alike - or something like that.
Lots of multinational firms claimed they would leave the UK if we didn't join the single currency. None did.
http://news.sky.com/election/results#lists-live
Sadly there's no the Twickenham declaration with lovely Tory woman almost in tears.
The Labour candidate seems a bit "bizarre"....
It was rather amusing when the boss of Tesco stated leaving the EU would be bad for business. Days later Tesco announce one of the largest losses in UK history.