I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
There's a thought to fail to make my flesh creep, given what I feared the Conservative Party was going to look like on 9 May 2015, until 3 days ago.
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
I think 2020 will be extremely difficult for the Tories, even if all the landmines e.g. EU, Scottish Problem, failed deficit reduction, don't go off.
If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.
The principal problem for the Tories in 2020 is that they'll be without Cameron. I don't like him and doubted his ability but he has shown himself to be a ruthless winner.
If the Tories have the sense to avoid Boris, they will be on their second woman leader or first from an ethnic backgorund. They will thrive happily post DC.
Boris is soon going to be just any other MP. Being Mayor have him more leeway to be a bit maverick, indeed I think one has to be to be London Mayor, but as just another one of the team? I think he'll lose some of his public support, which given how long he's been in the public eye may begin to fade as well. One of the newer faces it has to be, surely.
Just noticed that Ed's vote was up just 5% in Doncaster North, which I think is one of the lowest increases for a party leader the first time they contest a seat after being elected. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000669
The likes of Hague, Major, Brown, Howard and Clegg were good fits for their constituencies.
Does anyone think EdM was a good fit with Doncaster North ?
No, but Ed did increase his vote there - perhaps never visiting the place helped quite a bit.
[24 hours since winning the election. First #ToriesOutNow protest in London. Heavy police presence throughout]
Interesting. Which part of democracy do these people not understand?
The part where 37% is considered a legitimate governing majority.
Last year, the world's largest democracy, India voted in the BJP, who got an overall majority on only 31% of the vote.
Oh and let's not forget Tony Blair got less than 37% back in 2005...
I'm not forgetting those.
Labour benefit from it almost as much as the Tories, which is why the press ignore it - papers are Tory or Labour and seldom does anyone not on one of these sides get printed. The broken failed sham "democracy" has failed the UK in 2015 and failed the UK in 2005.
Do want Chilcot to be published before or after Labour elect as leader someone who voted for Iraq?
@DPJHodges: Members of Ed's team begin debate on why Labour lost. First reason - Iraq. Blair won 05 election 2 years after Iraq. Ed lost 12 years after.
Virtually inaudible unfortunately. You'd have though someone would have a decent video copy, but seemingly not, despite the delicious prospect of Balls being defeated having been flagged up well in advance.
In 2010 64% voted either Con, LD or UKIP. This time the figure was 59%. Parties in favour of austerity to some extent, which is what the protesters in Whitehall despise so much.
Do we or will we get e.g. from Exit Poll, any information on ethnicity? I am interested in something Crosby said the long video and I would be interested to see if it came to pass.
No, that was one of the things Nate Silver was complaining about. You never get any detailed information from the UK exit poll, in contrast to those in the USA.
notme Miliband did actually see a small percentage increase on 2010, and had they held their Scottish seats he would have won 270 or so seats, the same number Kinnock got in 1992. It is more 1992 or 2001 than 1997, 2010 was their 1997 and would have been more so had Cameron squeezed the LD vote as well as he did on Thursday
madasfish The Tories won Staffordshire Moorlands by 23%, Labour could now be comfortably largest party or win a small majority even if it stays Tory. Labour would be better focusing on suburban seats and city seats like Worcester which the Tories won by 11%, Hendon which the Tories won by 7% or Cardiff North which the Tories won by 4% which they do need to win
I'd do it the other way round. But under Labour rules one or the other has to be a woman, I think. I'd happily see Kendall or Creasy alongside Jarvis. Creasy and Umunna together would not work. Kendall in charge and Umunna as deputy might be OK.
I have absolutely no evidence to point to, but my gut says that Umunna would find it hard to work for a woman.
Virtually inaudible unfortunately. You'd have though someone would have a decent video copy, but seemingly not, despite the delicious prospect of Balls being defeated having been flagged up well in advance.
HOW CAN THE TORIES WIN WHEN ME AND MY FRIENDS ALL VOTE LABOUR?
"Where are these people!?"
"I know! I just don't understand it. Everyone on my course at SOAS is Labour or Green."
"I know. Like, all the people I follow on Twitter were lighting up with #milifandom. I thought that was the moment we'd broken through."
"It was all over the social feeds I've carefully curated with people whose opinions I agree with."
"It's not like we only move in shallow circles of people who reinforce our own prejudices, is it?"
"Course not."
"I mix with loads of different people in my job at an NGO."
"Precisely."
Reminds me of someone who used to work at the BBC who told me they were dumbfounded by Boris winning the mayoral election in 2008 because they didn't know a single person who supported him.
Does anyone know whether it must have been the case that quite a few Catholics must have voted for the Unionist candidate in order for him to win with 46% of the vote in Fermanagh & South Tyrone? I thought the Catholic population was something like 60% in that constituency.
Andy, the total Nationalist vote was 50.8%, 2.4% lower than in 2010. Fermanagh on its own is 60% Catholic, but the seat also includes the Blackwater electoral area of the former Dungannon Borough, which has a slim Protestant majority.
You can see the Protestant bits on my map based on the 2001 Census:
Does anyone know whether it must have been the case that quite a few Catholics must have voted for the Unionist candidate in order for him to win with 46% of the vote in Fermanagh & South Tyrone? I thought the Catholic population was something like 60% in that constituency.
Andy, the total Nationalist vote was 50.8%, 2.4% lower than in 2010. Fermanagh on its own is 60% Catholic, but the seat also includes the Blackwater electoral area of the former Dungannon Borough, which has a slim Protestant majority.
You can see the Protestant bits on my map based on the 2001 Census:
JK Rowling has contributed enormous sums to Scotland through her hard work whereas Sturgeon is a huge drain on the Scottish purse. These idiots get everything the wrong way round.
In fairness to everyone's predictions above, there was another competition in April I believe, where people may have fared better. I had Lab on 300 in that one I think, so comparitively it was much better!
There's a thought to fail to make my flesh creep, given what I feared the Conservative Party was going to look like on 9 May 2015, until 3 days ago.
Give it a rest.
Nah, let's remember 1970. Ted Heath won what many people regarded as an improbable victory over the incumbent Wilson Government notching up a majority of 30.
Within less than four years, we had a three-day week and when Heath asked the people "who governs Britain ?" the result wasn't what he hoped.
The Liberals, smashed down to 7.5% and six seats in 1970, staged a remarkable comeback in terms of votes if not seats.
Does anyone know whether it must have been the case that quite a few Catholics must have voted for the Unionist candidate in order for him to win with 46% of the vote in Fermanagh & South Tyrone? I thought the Catholic population was something like 60% in that constituency.
Andy, the total Nationalist vote was 50.8%, 2.4% lower than in 2010. Fermanagh on its own is 60% Catholic, but the seat also includes the Blackwater electoral area of the former Dungannon Borough, which has a slim Protestant majority.
You can see the Protestant bits on my map based on the 2001 Census:
Thanks Sunil. I thought it was higher for some reason.
SORRY, it also includes Dungannon Town and Clogher areas. It used to have the Torrent electoral area, which is VERY Sinn Fein, but this moved to Mid Ulster with the 1993 review.
notme Miliband did actually see a small percentage increase on 2010, and had they held their Scottish seats he would have won 270 or so seats, the same number Kinnock got in 1992. It is more 1992 or 2001 than 1997, 2010 was their 1997 and would have been more so had Cameron squeezed the LD vote as well as he did on Thursday
Outside Scotland, the Conservatives and Labour won a similar number of seats to 1992.
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
I think you need some chips to go with all that vinegar.
HOW CAN THE TORIES WIN WHEN ME AND MY FRIENDS ALL VOTE LABOUR?
"Where are these people!?"
"I know! I just don't understand it. Everyone on my course at SOAS is Labour or Green."
"I know. Like, all the people I follow on Twitter were lighting up with #milifandom. I thought that was the moment we'd broken through."
"It was all over the social feeds I've carefully curated with people whose opinions I agree with."
"It's not like we only move in shallow circles of people who reinforce our own prejudices, is it?"
"Course not."
"I mix with loads of different people in my job at an NGO."
"Precisely."
Reminds me of someone who used to work at the BBC who told me they were dumbfounded by Boris winning the mayoral election in 2008 because they didn't know a single person who supported him.
The all time best for that was the Fox News host who seaid the financial crash was overblown as none of their friends had lost their job.
JK Rowling has contributed enormous sums to Scotland through her hard work whereas Sturgeon is a huge drain on the Scottish purse. These idiots get everything the wrong way round.
yes, but if they can hound a woman worth £1bn out of the country Scotland's economy will be stronger
Just noticed that Ed's vote was up just 5% in Doncaster North, which I think is one of the lowest increases for a party leader the first time they contest a seat after being elected. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000669
It is interesting....Ed thought he had won, Labour didn't know until they started to ring candidates after 10pm.
Tories knew....Loud Howard (TDN) blurted out what Crosby / Messina had said to him earlier in the evening. Even bloody Bet Fred knew. But the leader of the opposition was in his bubble thinking he had won.
For all the talk of this ground army, sounds like they didn't have the number crunchers / detailed analysis (or nobody dared tell Miliband).
Does anyone know whether it must have been the case that quite a few Catholics must have voted for the Unionist candidate in order for him to win with 46% of the vote in Fermanagh & South Tyrone? I thought the Catholic population was something like 60% in that constituency.
Jesus wept...what knuckle dragger thought his was a suitable protest?
twitter.com/gwarn/status/597091495267737600
And people wonder why there are shy Tories. You never see 'Labour scum' tagged anywhere, do you, whereas 'Tory scum' is everywhere... Oh well, at least we have a majority to comfort us..... titter...
notme Miliband did actually see a small percentage increase on 2010, and had they held their Scottish seats he would have won 270 or so seats, the same number Kinnock got in 1992. It is more 1992 or 2001 than 1997, 2010 was their 1997 and would have been more so had Cameron squeezed the LD vote as well as he did on Thursday
Its no surprise to see a small overall in crease in the Labour %age, given its low base. The Tory vote is a slight increase which is more than Mrs T managed.
Under any PR system where the threshold is 5% then the SNP would not get a single seat. At least the annoying difference between seats for Tories and LDs relative to their similar %age vote share has now been resolved.
I see turnout at this vital election was up by a massive 1%
Just catching up on the #ThanetRigged Hoohaa, can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?
Not helped by the fact the count took hours to declare. One big reason why Councils should be counting votes as soon as they collect the ballot boxes.
Con won it in the locals by a whisker 16733 votes to 16728
In Northfield wards Labour was still a bit ahead (they were behind last year) 16201 to 15527 votes
Not seen it acknowledged so far, but that was another terrific performance by Gisela Stuart. She has established a strong personal vote since she won Edgbaston in 1997, when it was the first Labour gain in what had been a Tory seat for 50 years.
HOW CAN THE TORIES WIN WHEN ME AND MY FRIENDS ALL VOTE LABOUR?
"Where are these people!?"
"I know! I just don't understand it. Everyone on my course at SOAS is Labour or Green."
"I know. Like, all the people I follow on Twitter were lighting up with #milifandom. I thought that was the moment we'd broken through."
"It was all over the social feeds I've carefully curated with people whose opinions I agree with."
"It's not like we only move in shallow circles of people who reinforce our own prejudices, is it?"
"Course not."
"I mix with loads of different people in my job at an NGO."
"Precisely."
Reminds me of someone who used to work at the BBC who told me they were dumbfounded by Boris winning the mayoral election in 2008 because they didn't know a single person who supported him.
There was a New York celeb who said the same about Nixon's landslide in 1972.
Ken Maginnis was the last UUP man to win Fermanagh & South Tyrone, back in 97. That year there was actually a majority for the Union - Maginnis was the sole Unionist candidate!
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
I think 2020 will be extremely difficult for the Tories, even if all the landmines e.g. EU, Scottish Problem, failed deficit reduction, don't go off.
If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.
The principal problem for the Tories in 2020 is that they'll be without Cameron. I don't like him and doubted his ability but he has shown himself to be a ruthless winner.
If the Tories have the sense to avoid Boris, they will be on their second woman leader or first from an ethnic backgorund. They will thrive happily post DC.
Boris is soon going to be just any other MP. Being Mayor have him more leeway to be a bit maverick, indeed I think one has to be to be London Mayor, but as just another one of the team? I think he'll lose some of his public support, which given how long he's been in the public eye may begin to fade as well. One of the newer faces it has to be, surely.
Ask yourself this - who is the current First Secretary of State?
It was the idea of Torsten Henricson-Bell, 32, the director of policy. A former Treasury economist, he wanted a version of Tony Blair’s pledge card which worked so well for Labour in the 1997 election.
‘Torsten thought we were not getting our policy ideas across, so he persuaded Ed to do the stone,’ said another Labour insider.
Axelrod, on a rare trip to London, enthusiastically signed off on the hubristic monument, having long championed the idea in the US of enshrining policy ideas in ‘stone tablets’. Tom Baldwin, one of Miliband’s media advisers, was also keen.
Con won it in the locals by a whisker 16733 votes to 16728
In Northfield wards Labour was still a bit ahead (they were behind last year) 16201 to 15527 votes
I seem to remember that in 2010 the Tories won Edgbaston in the locals relatively comfortably, so this would suggest the seat is indeed moving away from them demographically.
Jesus wept...what knuckle dragger thought his was a suitable protest?
twitter.com/gwarn/status/597091495267737600
And people wonder why there are shy Tories. You never see 'Labour scum' tagged anywhere, do you, whereas 'Tory scum' is everywhere... Oh well, at least we have a majority to comfort us..... titter...
I've seen the term 'scum' used on here quite a bit. Whether it apppended 'Labour' I can't recall..
HOW CAN THE TORIES WIN WHEN ME AND MY FRIENDS ALL VOTE LABOUR?
"Where are these people!?"
"I know! I just don't understand it. Everyone on my course at SOAS is Labour or Green."
"I know. Like, all the people I follow on Twitter were lighting up with #milifandom. I thought that was the moment we'd broken through."
"It was all over the social feeds I've carefully curated with people whose opinions I agree with."
"It's not like we only move in shallow circles of people who reinforce our own prejudices, is it?"
"Course not."
"I mix with loads of different people in my job at an NGO."
"Precisely."
Reminds me of someone who used to work at the BBC who told me they were dumbfounded by Boris winning the mayoral election in 2008 because they didn't know a single person who supported him.
There was a New York celeb who said the same about Nixon's landslide in 1972.
There's a thought to fail to make my flesh creep, given what I feared the Conservative Party was going to look like on 9 May 2015, until 3 days ago.
Give it a rest.
Nah, let's remember 1970. Ted Heath won what many people regarded as an improbable victory over the incumbent Wilson Government notching up a majority of 30.
Within less than four years, we had a three-day week and when Heath asked the people "who governs Britain ?" the result wasn't what he hoped.
The Liberals, smashed down to 7.5% and six seats in 1970, staged a remarkable comeback in terms of votes if not seats.
"can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?"
Very common, it happens to the LibDems all the time (for example the LibDem council results in Eastleigh last Thursday).
The focus of the national election for most people was "Cameron or Miliband?". Therefore it isn't surprising that there was a squeeze on other parties (the two-party percentage of the vote actually went up this time, bucking its long-term decline) which will affect the GE but not the local vote.
Further, the fact that UKIP-leaning voters can express their preference using the local ballot paper actually makes it easier to 'defect' to Tory or Labour with the other ballot. Walking back from the polling station knowing 'your party' got one of your votes is much easier than voting tactically for your second choice when there's only one vote to be cast.
JK Rowling has contributed enormous sums to Scotland through her hard work whereas Sturgeon is a huge drain on the Scottish purse. These idiots get everything the wrong way round.
Too true, JK Rowling has my complete support against being harassed by trolls wherever they come from. I do however wish she'd write more fantasy - maybe about a girl this time - instead of detective novels.
It was the idea of Torsten Henricson-Bell, 32, the director of policy. A former Treasury economist, he wanted a version of Tony Blair’s pledge card which worked so well for Labour in the 1997 election.
‘Torsten thought we were not getting our policy ideas across, so he persuaded Ed to do the stone,’ said another Labour insider.
Axelrod, on a rare trip to London, enthusiastically signed off on the hubristic monument, having long championed the idea in the US of enshrining policy ideas in ‘stone tablets’. Tom Baldwin, one of Miliband’s media advisers, was also keen.
It was the idea of Torsten Henricson-Bell, 32, the director of policy. A former Treasury economist, he wanted a version of Tony Blair’s pledge card which worked so well for Labour in the 1997 election.
‘Torsten thought we were not getting our policy ideas across, so he persuaded Ed to do the stone,’ said another Labour insider.
Axelrod, on a rare trip to London, enthusiastically signed off on the hubristic monument, having long championed the idea in the US of enshrining policy ideas in ‘stone tablets’. Tom Baldwin, one of Miliband’s media advisers, was also keen.
JK Rowling has contributed enormous sums to Scotland through her hard work whereas Sturgeon is a huge drain on the Scottish purse. These idiots get everything the wrong way round.
yes, but if they can hound a woman worth £1bn out of the country Scotland's economy will be stronger
Total non-story. Part of a very disturbing agenda in the MSM to make the public 'the enemy'. Not nice to receive twitter abuse but fairly standard for a public figure who intervenes in public issues, and she shouldn't have responded. I'd also bet (though I'm certainly not investigating this further) that it was Nat abusers and that a single fake UKIP account was added to the mix in order to take the opportunity to smear UKIP.
notme Miliband did actually see a small percentage increase on 2010, and had they held their Scottish seats he would have won 270 or so seats, the same number Kinnock got in 1992. It is more 1992 or 2001 than 1997, 2010 was their 1997 and would have been more so had Cameron squeezed the LD vote as well as he did on Thursday
Its no surprise to see a small overall in crease in the Labour %age, given its low base. The Tory vote is a slight increase which is more than Mrs T managed.
Under any PR system where the threshold is 5% then the SNP would not get a single seat. At least the annoying difference between seats for Tories and LDs relative to their similar %age vote share has now been resolved.
I see turnout at this vital election was up by a massive 1%
UDI would be declared if the Westminster voting system was changed and specifically excluded SNP MPs. Subsequent Referendum would be a landslide.
Before gettting a leader, labour need to work out what they are. Until they work that out, any leader is just going to be fusing together tribes at war.
Jesus wept...what knuckle dragger thought his was a suitable protest?
twitter.com/gwarn/status/597091495267737600
And people wonder why there are shy Tories. You never see 'Labour scum' tagged anywhere, do you, whereas 'Tory scum' is everywhere... Oh well, at least we have a majority to comfort us..... titter...
I've seen the term 'scum' used on here quite a bit. Whether it apppended 'Labour' I can't recall..
A fair point, I think I used the word to describe lefty protestors too (when Farage was mobbed at the pub), so a bit of pot kettle black going on here Still, I've never seen it graffitied anywhere, that's for sure!
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
I think 2020 will be extremely difficult for the Tories, even if all the landmines e.g. EU, Scottish Problem, failed deficit reduction, don't go off.
If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.
The principal problem for the Tories in 2020 is that they'll be without Cameron. I don't like him and doubted his ability but he has shown himself to be a ruthless winner.
If the Tories have the sense to avoid Boris, they will be on their second woman leader or first from an ethnic backgorund. They will thrive happily post DC.
Boris is soon going to be just any other MP. Being Mayor have him more leeway to be a bit maverick, indeed I think one has to be to be London Mayor, but as just another one of the team? I think he'll lose some of his public support, which given how long he's been in the public eye may begin to fade as well. One of the newer faces it has to be, surely.
Ask yourself this - who is the current First Secretary of State?
Point taken. Not a possibility I had been considering to be honest. He seems the perfect No.2, but all things must change I guess.
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
There is a difference. In 1992 labour made substantial gains. Those big majorities that delivered a 102 majority were slashed. Seats that seemed impossible now became reachable, a majority of 21 is within reach when you are moving towards it, but not so much when it is moving away from you.
This is their 1997 moment. They should have had it in 2010, but they, unlike the conservatives in 1997, accurately worked out where to draw the line in the sand and campaigned effectively.
I posted a couple of weeks ago that Miliband was Labour's Hague.
Do want Chilcot to be published before or after Labour elect as leader someone who voted for Iraq?
@DPJHodges: Members of Ed's team begin debate on why Labour lost. First reason - Iraq. Blair won 05 election 2 years after Iraq. Ed lost 12 years after.
All the people who abandoned Labour because of Iraq were back voting for them last week.
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Oh really ? Which ones ?
Oh, just for an example. Nissan.
Its a fair point. Renault-Nissan-AvtoVAZ have 36 plants all over Europe and Russia. These things would not happen overnight but the trend would be inevitable. Plus jobs which might come here will go somewhere else.
Then maybe they might not. 'Might' not. Then again when you are playing Russian Roulette you might not blow your head off.
So all you have is more Europhile scaremongering then. Just like your claims there would be no real difference between EU and EEA membership. Why do you bother to post this rubbish when you clearly know nothing about it?
That is already happening. The french government have bought more of Renault to increase their voting rights to try and keep Renault's french factories open at the expense of anywhere else. Supposedly the aim as a minimum is to force Nissan to move the next version of the Juke to a Renault factory that is threatened with closure.
The fact the suggest factory is uneconomic and Renault desperately wants to close it to remove excess capacity is never here nor there...
The share purchase was due to Renault's refusal to implement the law on double voting rights for long-term shareholders
Two Labour MPs who deserve a greater role in the party are the two Labour MPs who gained seats in 2010:
Toby Perkins of Chesterfield Simon Danscuk of Rochdale
They both share the drawbacks of having experience of the real world and being non-metropolitan.
By the way, our next winter exhibition is planned to be working with one of the museums in Rochdale. You should come and see that there is something good in the place
JK Rowling has contributed enormous sums to Scotland through her hard work whereas Sturgeon is a huge drain on the Scottish purse. These idiots get everything the wrong way round.
Too true, JK Rowling has my complete support against being harassed by trolls wherever they come from. I do however wish she'd write more fantasy - maybe about a girl this time - instead of detective novels.
It is interesting....Ed thought he had won, Labour didn't know until they started to ring candidates after 10pm.
Tories knew....Loud Howard (TDN) blurted out what Crosby / Messina had said to him earlier in the evening. Even bloody Bet Fred knew. But the leader of the opposition was in his bubble thinking he had won.
For all the talk of this ground army, sounds like they didn't have the number crunchers / detailed analysis (or nobody dared tell Miliband).
Maybe by 2020 Labour will have cloned Mr IOS and created a fleet of Robocanvassers which can upload live data to Labour HQ !!
Just catching up on the #ThanetRigged Hoohaa, can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?
Not helped by the fact the count took hours to declare. One big reason why Councils should be counting votes as soon as they collect the ballot boxes.
Watching the declarations as they came in this is something that struck me too.
Ignoring Sunderland as they race each other, and accepting that there will be a few recounts, how come it takes so long to declare the result? With a couple of very rural exceptions, most ballot boxes will be no more than 20 or 30 minutes' drive from the count, so how come there were places with no counting going on for several hours?
I think I recall Thanet S didn't start the count until around 4am, what were they doing for six hours prior to that? Some of us wanted to go to bed rather that still be up well into the morning waiting to see the fate of Mr Farage. If it wasn't for Balls I probably would have given up and found out about it later - hardly an advert for engagement.
FlightPathL Of course in Scotland the SNP won 50%, but if the threshold was UK wide they would have stood token candidates in England and Wales to add a few votes to the 4% they got across the UK and easily passed the threshold
The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe
What about Angela Merkel?
That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.
Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.
What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.
Oh really ? Which ones ?
Oh, just for an example. Nissan.
Its a fair point. Renault-Nissan-AvtoVAZ have 36 plants all over Europe and Russia. These things would not happen overnight but the trend would be inevitable. Plus jobs which might come here will go somewhere else.
Then maybe they might not. 'Might' not. Then again when you are playing Russian Roulette you might not blow your head off.
So all you have is more Europhile scaremongering then. Just like your claims there would be no real difference between EU and EEA membership. Why do you bother to post this rubbish when you clearly know nothing about it?
That is already happening. The french government have bought more of Renault to increase their voting rights to try and keep Renault's french factories open at the expense of anywhere else. Supposedly the aim as a minimum is to force Nissan to move the next version of the Juke to a Renault factory that is threatened with closure.
The fact the suggest factory is uneconomic and Renault desperately wants to close it to remove excess capacity is never here nor there...
'UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted - a lot of people and media and some politicians would break ranks to challenge that, so I think people will vote Out if asked.'
Despite what the EU and various commentators were saying before the election I think Cameron will get a good deal now he has a majority plus the size of the UKIP vote.
Just look at the pains Junker & co are taking to try and keep bankrupt Greece in the Euro. Germany is the major player here and will not want the UK outside the EU.
I think that's exactly right. The various EU powerbrokers were hoping to avoid Cameron getting back in. They thought even if he was in, he'd be hamstrung by the Liberal Democrats doing their bidding from within government. They also hoped that UKIP would be a busted flush and they could dismiss them as a passing flash in the pan.
But now Cameron has not only got an absolute majority, but there's a 13% UKIP vote. Half of the electorate voted for one of the two eurosceptic parties. Cameron has real leverage here so he can really win a lot back if he wants to. There's no reason to settle for just some symbolic changes or something that's not legally binding. The first priority should be limits on immigration change, because if we miss the immigration pledge again we'll be in trouble come 2030, but we should also look to get fisheries and farm reform too.
He won't if he can help it though. Because he doesn't want to. He wants us all in, all the way, and until now he's thought he could do it. Even Juncker himself raised the prospect of Britain having a form of 'associate membership' (albeit that free movement wasn't on the table). But Cameron hasn't done anything about it, on the contrary he's repeatedly failed to press home the initiative and play the cards he had available.
HOWEVER now we have a Tory majority, reliant on NI votes, hopefully lots more genuinely eurosceptic voices to hold Cameron's feet to the fire, and no Lib Dems to use as an excuse. So still lots of reasons to be hopeful.
I see Charlotte Church was protesting today in Cardiff at the democratic election of a Conservative Government. She said she was devastated, procliming that she is 'mad as hell and not going to take it anymore' Oh dearie me!
Charles Rubbish, Miliband was Labour's IDS, Foot was Labour's Hague, Umunna is Labour's Obama
I didn't know Umunna was so into golf :-)
Having met him, he is slippery. Certainly smart, certainly much better performer than Miliband, but he makes Telfon Tony look like velcro...everything you expect from a former City lawyer.
My daughter works for the NHS,as a mental health nurse, a very demanding job, which she has done for 8-9 years,she was literally scared to death about the prospects of a Tory government, scare stories about how the evil tories would cut her wages, make her redundant etc, really upset her. It is very wrong for politicians/unions,vested interests to play these games with the NHS employees. For what it is worth,I have had 2 years of fairly intense treatment from the NHS, and they have been fantastic. I needed a particular in patient treatment, I saw my consultant late one afternoon, who said can you make it in at short notice, "Hell yeah I can", 9.30 am next day I was in, and fixed. Took her a box of chocolates, both me and her very happy.
I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.
Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.
Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.
You never know...
I think 2020 will be extremely difficult for the Tories, even if all the landmines e.g. EU, Scottish Problem, failed deficit reduction, don't go off.
If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.
I have been looking at the traditional Saturday Election results supplement in the paper today.
The Tories have 216 seats with majorities of 10,000+.
216
They only won 197 in total in 2005
Take a bow David Cameron - he has proved all his doubters wrong
If it is true then it shows how bad Labour's polling was and/or that it was Ed and Labour who were really 'out of touch' and not the Eton toff Cameron and Tories.
Also I see the Mail strenuously pointing out that Miliband does not simply live in Doncaster but has a ''detached constituency home in a pretty south Yorkshire village''.
I must admit that you do a good service pointing me to this article because I honestly try not to read the Daily Mail. It says that 'Oxford academic' (whoever realised that the term could be so condescending?) Lord Wood ''dreamed up Miliband’s meaningless and forgettable slogans such as the ‘predistribution’ of wealth ''. No wonder labour lost! Pity they did not study predestination more.
It is all the stuff of priceless drama doccumentary. ''When Ed Met... (insert suitable name here)''
I see Charlotte Church was protesting today in Cardiff at the democratic election of a Conservative Government. She said she was devastated, procliming that she is 'mad as hell and not going to take it anymore' Oh dearie me!
Comments
Give it a rest.
Labour benefit from it almost as much as the Tories, which is why the press ignore it - papers are Tory or Labour and seldom does anyone not on one of these sides get printed. The broken failed sham "democracy" has failed the UK in 2015 and failed the UK in 2005.
@DPJHodges: Members of Ed's team begin debate on why Labour lost. First reason - Iraq. Blair won 05 election 2 years after Iraq. Ed lost 12 years after.
Toby Perkins of Chesterfield
Simon Danscuk of Rochdale
They both share the drawbacks of having experience of the real world and being non-metropolitan.
But it is truly juicy. There will be some excellent stories from this campaign.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074175/Ed-writing-victory-speech-came-exit-poll-ANDREW-PIERCE-reflects-catastrophic-night-Labour-leader.html
in the South Thanet wards using top vote per party it is something like UKIP 12693 votes Con 11729
The constituency have 2 wards falling within Dover council area to be added.
Anyway, I read Labour led Conservatives in Morley and Outwood wards in the locals but lost the GE.
In 2010 64% voted either Con, LD or UKIP. This time the figure was 59%. Parties in favour of austerity to some extent, which is what the protesters in Whitehall despise so much.
JK Rowling getting sledged by SNP and UKIP trolls, not pretty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/booknews/11594516/JK-Rowling-suffers-Twitter-backlash-following-the-General-Election.html
HOW CAN THE TORIES WIN WHEN ME AND MY FRIENDS ALL VOTE LABOUR?
"Where are these people!?"
"I know! I just don't understand it. Everyone on my course at SOAS is Labour or Green."
"I know. Like, all the people I follow on Twitter were lighting up with #milifandom. I thought that was the moment we'd broken through."
"It was all over the social feeds I've carefully curated with people whose opinions I agree with."
"It's not like we only move in shallow circles of people who reinforce our own prejudices, is it?"
"Course not."
"I mix with loads of different people in my job at an NGO."
"Precisely."
Ashcroft — Milton Keynes South, April 2015:
Lab 39%, Con 37%
Result:
Con 47%, Lab 32%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/milton-keynes-south/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000822
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xtTgo0I4UA
By the way, do we know the average PB guess, for comparison with the polls?
Edited extra bit: and my pre-race piece, complete with tip, is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/spain-pre-race.html
You can see the Protestant bits on my map based on the 2001 Census:
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/images/maps/2001religionwardsni1.jpg
Con won it in the locals by a whisker
16733 votes to 16728
In Northfield wards Labour was still a bit ahead (they were behind last year)
16201 to 15527 votes
Within less than four years, we had a three-day week and when Heath asked the people "who governs Britain ?" the result wasn't what he hoped.
The Liberals, smashed down to 7.5% and six seats in 1970, staged a remarkable comeback in terms of votes if not seats.
Enough parallels for you.....
Arhh how we will miss Ed.
Tories knew....Loud Howard (TDN) blurted out what Crosby / Messina had said to him earlier in the evening. Even bloody Bet Fred knew. But the leader of the opposition was in his bubble thinking he had won.
For all the talk of this ground army, sounds like they didn't have the number crunchers / detailed analysis (or nobody dared tell Miliband).
Under any PR system where the threshold is 5% then the SNP would not get a single seat.
At least the annoying difference between seats for Tories and LDs relative to their similar %age vote share has now been resolved.
I see turnout at this vital election was up by a massive 1%
But not much more interesting.
-------
It was the idea of Torsten Henricson-Bell, 32, the director of policy. A former Treasury economist, he wanted a version of Tony Blair’s pledge card which worked so well for Labour in the 1997 election.
‘Torsten thought we were not getting our policy ideas across, so he persuaded Ed to do the stone,’ said another Labour insider.
Axelrod, on a rare trip to London, enthusiastically signed off on the hubristic monument, having long championed the idea in the US of enshrining policy ideas in ‘stone tablets’. Tom Baldwin, one of Miliband’s media advisers, was also keen.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074175/Ed-writing-victory-speech-came-exit-poll-ANDREW-PIERCE-reflects-catastrophic-night-Labour-leader.html
Were they all drugs?
-Represents everyone who votes when it doesn't, not least under 18s.
-That religion represents voting intent
-Is wholly accurate
People have a lot to learn
But Danczuk was right about EdM and the Telegraph piece he wrote was very perceptive.
But its not the sort of thing that people at the top of Labour are interesteed in.
Very common, it happens to the LibDems all the time (for example the LibDem council results in Eastleigh last Thursday).
The focus of the national election for most people was "Cameron or Miliband?". Therefore it isn't surprising that there was a squeeze on other parties (the two-party percentage of the vote actually went up this time, bucking its long-term decline) which will affect the GE but not the local vote.
Further, the fact that UKIP-leaning voters can express their preference using the local ballot paper actually makes it easier to 'defect' to Tory or Labour with the other ballot. Walking back from the polling station knowing 'your party' got one of your votes is much easier than voting tactically for your second choice when there's only one vote to be cast.
Turnout was up over 11% in Scotland (7.3ppts).
Which means that IDS comes next
Please let it be Chuka!
2015 = 38.4
2010 = 42.0
Ignoring Sunderland as they race each other, and accepting that there will be a few recounts, how come it takes so long to declare the result? With a couple of very rural exceptions, most ballot boxes will be no more than 20 or 30 minutes' drive from the count, so how come there were places with no counting going on for several hours?
I think I recall Thanet S didn't start the count until around 4am, what were they doing for six hours prior to that? Some of us wanted to go to bed rather that still be up well into the morning waiting to see the fate of Mr Farage. If it wasn't for Balls I probably would have given up and found out about it later - hardly an advert for engagement.
Lab 16024
Con 13033
Morley & Outwood parliament
Con 18776
Lab 16024
SOAS! Really!
Even the people at LSHTM think that SOAS are a bunch of unreconstructed lefties!
(For people who don't know, LSHTM is specialised in public medicine in emerging markets - a hotbed of evul Turies, naturally)
Headline Voting Intention:
CON 40%; LAB 31%; UKIP 12%; LD 6%; SNP 5%; GREEN 3%; OTHER 2%
corrected that for you.
HOWEVER now we have a Tory majority, reliant on NI votes, hopefully lots more genuinely eurosceptic voices to hold Cameron's feet to the fire, and no Lib Dems to use as an excuse. So still lots of reasons to be hopeful.
She said she was devastated, procliming that she is 'mad as hell and not going to take it anymore'
Oh dearie me!
Having met him, he is slippery. Certainly smart, certainly much better performer than Miliband, but he makes Telfon Tony look like velcro...everything you expect from a former City lawyer.
It is very wrong for politicians/unions,vested interests to play these games with the NHS employees.
For what it is worth,I have had 2 years of fairly intense treatment from the NHS, and they have been fantastic.
I needed a particular in patient treatment, I saw my consultant late one afternoon, who said can you make it in at short notice, "Hell yeah I can", 9.30 am next day I was in, and fixed.
Took her a box of chocolates, both me and her very happy.
The Tories have 216 seats with majorities of 10,000+.
216
They only won 197 in total in 2005
Take a bow David Cameron - he has proved all his doubters wrong
https://twitter.com/mlilleker/status/597099261982076928
Also I see the Mail strenuously pointing out that Miliband does not simply live in Doncaster but has a ''detached constituency home in a pretty south Yorkshire village''.
I must admit that you do a good service pointing me to this article because I honestly try not to read the Daily Mail. It says that 'Oxford academic' (whoever realised that the term could be so condescending?) Lord Wood ''dreamed up Miliband’s meaningless and forgettable slogans such as the ‘predistribution’ of wealth ''. No wonder labour lost!
Pity they did not study predestination more.
It is all the stuff of priceless drama doccumentary. ''When Ed Met... (insert suitable name here)''
The left have gone insane.