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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Maybe Stella Creasy, but she hasn't been mentioned much.

    I have backed her (see earlier post) but when I have seen her in action in the House I have always been massively unimpressed.

    So she would be fine by me.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Chameleon said:

    SMukesh said:

    I am guessing there is no alternative but a centrist for Labour leader.Labour won`t choose a leftie for the next 10 years.If Labour want to win in the English marginals,my pick would be Tristam Hunt.

    Tristam Hunt? They need Dan Jarvis.
    They missed out with Alan Johnson.

    Even I like Alan Johnson
    If he'd ever shown any indication that he wanted the job, he'd have been a shoo-in.
    The guy I was speaking with this morning was a junior minister in Johnson's office and he said pretty much the same thing, in addition he had a personal issue too.

    He would have been good for Labour though.
    Agreed. A younger version with his kind of back story and human touch would be ideal. But there isn't one.
    But Johnson in govt flunked everything he had to do.

    Conservative ministers need to stay sane. They need to govern on the basis of what needs to be done and worry about the politics later.

    Assuming SF do not vote on anything is the majority actually something like 18?
    If other minor parties tend to abstain or actually support, is the real majority nearer 25?
    I'm only asking. Someone will have a better idea. Tory MPs even this far after 2010 are probably still youngish.
    Speaker and SF bring total voting seats down to 645. I'm also pretty sure that the UUP will as good as take the whip. That is 332 of 645, so an effective majority of 19. Then you'll see the DUP & UKIP voting with the Tories most of the time as well as the occasional Lady Hermon or LD vote. Their majority should last the course.
    Yes and the Speaker has to be selected. If he went I would go for Kate Hoey - but there may be a better Labour alternative. Bercowe would then be an independent if he stayed and given the Speaker would vote with govt on a tie that would increase the majority even more.
    However it would all be politicking and my advice to the govt would be to keep that to a minimum. These things always come back to haunt you. The question would be just how much support does Bercowe have if his alternative would be a honest Labour MP.

    BTW - it will not be easy for English Labour, but the best thing for them would be to resist all the anti austerity baby eating tory howling. Leave that to the SNP. Labour need to be rational, they need to show they have good judgement. Hopefully they and their cheer leaders on here will not listen to my advice.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @oxfordsimon

    'Angela Eagle is considering running..'

    For the bathroom ?.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That phrase deserves one of @Scott_P 's infamous TM superscripts

    felix said:

    Re the not so strange death of Liberalism, what has struck me about their policies is the way they have become more statist over time - I guess the Orange bookers didn't like it but that was pretty much the Clegg way - influenced much , I suspect by his pro-EUism.

    I think you're spot on.

    They have gone from a party based on liberalism to a big state, nanny knows best, spendy Labour-lite party. What exactly is liberal about them?

    If they were socially liberal and fiscally conservative then I'd vote for them in a flash.
    Well that space has been claimed by Cameron. Who is famously "not very good at politics".
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    Team Burnham and Eagle would be the perfect gift for the Conservatives.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. P, I thought the same thing yesterday when someone on the news advocated a good long look at Labour's approach (sensible) but doing so after choosing the leader.

    That's drunken madness. If you want to sell moisturiser, you choose Chuka Umunna. If you want to sell eyeliner, you pick Andy Burnham. If you want to sell voicing classes, you choose Yvette Cooper.

    Picking Burnham then trying to sell classes to lower your voice just won't work.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Scott_P said:

    Angela Eagle is considering running...

    Almost as good as Andy Burnham...
    Or Lammy, of course!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It's my WTF of GE2015.
    AndyJS said:

    Plato: I think Gower was Liberal before 1906. Not sure if it's ever been Tory.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear...

    @JournoStephen: The @ScottishLabour Party is on life support and Unite is coming at it with a pillow. Madness. https://t.co/XnizLk5efQ
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    Scott_P said:

    Labour leadership.

    Sensible Labour folk (yes, there are some, not MPs) have noted that the party should decide their philosophy and platform, then select the best person to sell it.

    Luckily they have already abandoned that plan and moved straight to a beauty contest.

    From my perspective the person I would least like to win (I think would be best facing Cameron across the despatch box regardless of policy) would be

    1. not from Gordo's cabinet
    2. A woman

    On that basis, and because none of them are favourites I have backed pretty much the field at odds of up to 100/1

    If any of them win I am covered.

    Of course I will be just as happy if none of them get it and Andy Burnham crashes and burns in 2020.

    This post sponsored by ToriesForBurnham™

    So basically, who is Labour’s Priti?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    This post sponsored by ToriesForBurnham™

    Oh, I see ToriesForChuka™ has competition. Hopefully we can work together in a spirit of mutual satisfaction?

    PS please check your Vanillamail too...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:


    From my perspective the person I would least like to win (I think would be best facing Cameron across the despatch box regardless of policy) would be

    1. not from Gordo's cabinet
    2. A woman

    Is there any possible way that Labour can not select a woman this time? If there is a certain bet at this time, I would think that is it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    Stewart Jackson MP, formerly of this parish, lays into the local Labour Party in his speech at his count met with boos in a bad tempered election night in Peterborough
    http://www.conservativehome.com/video/2015/05/watch-stewart-jacksons-victory-speech-in-peterborough.html
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Plato said:

    Thanks for the repost - I didn't see it. The Curse Of The New Thread catches us all from time to time.

    Mr Osborne came from a military family who post-service set up a successful high-end business selling wallpaper. They sent him to the same school as Harriet Harman who is the daughter of gentry.

    What makes him uniquely more inhuman that her? She was my MP when I was at art school in Peckham in 1986. She hasn't grown up a month since.

    I find the notion that ANY politician is in it for malign ends weird. Some get seduced by it all along the way or have a large genetic propensity for narcissism and turn into Tony Blair post 2001. Or Mrs T post 1990.

    I know dozens and dozens of politically inclined types and some just can't accept that Kippers aren't MAD, Tories aren't EVIL or Labourites aren't all NAIVE. Oh and LDs aren't WET AND NAIVE.

    All in all, time spent on PB after an election will tell you more about political honesty than anything else. Those who were shy before will point it out, those who were ramping will probably confess it and the tribalism fades quickly away.

    Do stick around and I guarantee you will know more about the national scene than anyone else you know. And be much wiser about the games/not hood-winked by them.

    Welcome aboard - you'll have a great deal of fun.

    Firstly, thank you for the welcome Plato. I hope I have fun!

    On Harman - tbh, I don't really like Harman either, though my issue with Osborne is not related to his background. For example, I think Rory Stewart comes off as quite a good MP, and I like a lot of things he has to say - and he's an Old Etonian. So my issue with Osborne is not that he's 'posh', but more the way he comes off. Also tbh his love of Blairism does scare me.

    I think there are probably some politicians who are in it for malign ends, although I think for the most part that's a result of power corrupting rather than originally starting off that way.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone else see Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband listlessly wandering around Westminster for the next five years?

    I reckon Sheffield Hallam and Doncaster North will be the first by-elections of the new Parliament, possibly within months.

    With Mr Cooper as Labour candidate for Doncaster North.
    Cameron will find something suitable for Clegg, he owes him.
    I would ordinarily say a seat on the red benches, but given Clegg wanted to abolish the place maybe they will find a knighthood for him instead, or maybe a plumb diplomatic job overseas a la Chris Patten.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's appallingly low TO, anywhere much worse?
    AndyJS said:

    Plato said:

    Stoke Safe isTristram's?

    AndyJS said:

    Labour majorities in the Stoke-on-Trent seats:

    Central: 5,179 (previously 5,566)
    North: 4,836 (8,235)
    South: 2,539 (4,130)

    Tristram is MP for Stoke Central. His very low vote of 12,605 in 2010 fell even further to 12,220 this time. Turnout was pretty awful again, less than 50%.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000972
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Scott_P said:

    Oh dear...

    @JournoStephen: The @ScottishLabour Party is on life support and Unite is coming at it with a pillow. Madness. https://t.co/XnizLk5efQ

    And ASLEF call for him to do one.

    http://www.aslef.org.uk/information/142617/aslef_calls_for_jim_murphy_to_go/
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SandyRentool

    'Don't expect to see a Labour block vote for In. I can't be the only person planning to vote Out to give Cam a bloody nose for calling the referendum in the first place.'

    Isn't that Labour all over, spite always prevails.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    justin124 said:

    We are a bit overdue for a string of by-elections in Tory-held seats so it’s not that unlikely that by mid 2017 Cameron’s majority will be well down into single figures – say 6 or even 4.

    The only by-election I am hoping for is one in Buckingham. NB resignation, not death, as you seem to be hoping for.
    Yes please, that would be sweet. Job back for Esther, as someone suggested in the last thread?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Alistair I doubt it will be a split, but the EU referendum has the potential to have as grave consequences for the Tories in the short term as the Scottish referendum had for Labour with UKIP benefiting this time in England and to a lesser extent Wales as the SNP did in Scotland
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    UKIP have apparently taken control of Thanet. council.

    Maybe Farage really was a drag on the UKIP vote.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Burnham and Eagles..PMQ,s would be a major TV hit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    So basically, who is Labour’s Priti?

    Well quite.

    I have something of a soft spot for the Northern women, Lisa Nandy, Alison McGovern, Catherine McKinnell, Bridget Phillipson, but probably Gloria De Piero has a better shot at getting it

    Just about the only one I declined to back is Diane Abbott :)
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Oh dear...

    @JournoStephen: The @ScottishLabour Party is on life support and Unite is coming at it with a pillow. Madness. https://t.co/XnizLk5efQ

    NOOOOOOO.

    Murphy must stay.

    The Nats are scared of him, he's the man who can turn Labour around. The Nats can't stop talking about him, that just shows you how much they fear him.

    Murphy MUST go on and on and on.

    Not only that but now UNITE have gone public, the Labour Party CANNOT get rid of Murphy without appearing to be in the pocket of the Unions. They must keep Murphy to demonstrate that the Unions don't run Labour.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    I was hoping and expecting turnout to surge to more than 70% this time. Instead it increased by a measily 1% from 65 to 66%. On the other hand, it was a pretty boring and uninspiring campaign.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    My stake money was £1,500 - my strategy was:

    SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.

    SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.

    My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.

    I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:

    https://www.justgiving.com/Calum-Ferguson1/

    Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Stewart Jackson MP, formerly of this parish, lays into the local Labour Party in his speech at his count met with boos in a bad tempered election night in Peterborough
    http://www.conservativehome.com/video/2015/05/watch-stewart-jacksons-victory-speech-in-peterborough.html

    I may be wrong but it sounded like they started booing him first, so no surprise if he responded to that by having a go at them given he'd just won an election a few seconds beforehand.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Calum, that's a great result. Fantastic tip on Labour to score 5 seats or fewer in Scotland at 125/1.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dair said:

    Is there any possible way that Labour can not select a woman this time?

    If there's a way, we can be reasonably sure Labour will find it...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    AndyJS said:

    In terms of winning the election, there were about 10 people Labour could have chosen above Ed Miliband IMO. David Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Alan Johnson, Andy Burnham, Jon Cruddas, Caroline Flint, Chris Leslie, etc.

    What has happened to Cruddas? I completely forgot about his existent until now! And Chris Leslie I think would be awful - pretty much Ed Balls MK2.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    And to round off a great week I have invested some of my winnings on Marf's original of the "Destitute Pollsters" cartoon. I will look on it fondly every time someone posts "Dave can't win here..."
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    edited May 2015

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone else see Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband listlessly wandering around Westminster for the next five years?

    I reckon Sheffield Hallam and Doncaster North will be the first by-elections of the new Parliament, possibly within months.

    I have this image of the two of them whiling away five years by going off for day trips in a battered Morris Minor soft-top, flask and sandwiches packed, checking out the National Trust properties in Kent and Surrey.....

    Perhaps the BBC could film it?
    Portillo has the pink jacket and cosy sofa market sewn up. Portillo as we can see now is quite normal and objective, as a person and as a commentator. Not like the image that was projected onto him. As ever the commentariat, which includes people here, cannot be trusted with their judgements.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    MD Rubbish, Obama is as slick, metropolitan and narcissistic as Umunna but both have some charisma and are telegenic and Obama has just won 2 elections. It will be a Cooper-Umunna-Burnham contest, for which read Clinton-Obama-Edwards with Umunna scraping home.

    Dan Jarvis could win the Deputy Leadership producing an Umunna-Jarvis 'dream ticket'. Umunna would need a white man with working class roots, much as Obama picked Biden as his VP candidate
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Burnham and Eagles..PMQ,s would be a major TV hit.

    Either : Squeak, squeak, squeak.
    Everyone : What?
    Either : Squeak, SQUEAK, WHINY SQUEAK
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Glad to see myself on the first page! Thought I would be much lower with my 8 UKIP guess.

    I guess I underestimated the LD > Con swing and the Lab > SNP swing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    SMukesh said:

    I am guessing there is no alternative but a centrist for Labour leader.Labour won`t choose a leftie for the next 10 years.If Labour want to win in the English marginals,my pick would be Tristam Hunt.

    Mine would be too.*

    But I know one of us does not have the best interests of the Labour party at heart......

    *Actually, I think you should shake things up with Jarvis.....
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Morris_Daancer

    'Picking Burnham then trying to sell classes to lower your voice just won't work'

    Problem is he's got an Edstone around his neck called Mid Staffs.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2015
    john_zims said:

    @oxfordsimon
    'Angela Eagle is considering running..'

    Yes please.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    Bravo Calum.
    calum said:

    My stake money was £1,500 - my strategy was:

    SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.

    SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.

    My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    So basically, who is Labour’s Priti?

    Well quite.

    I have something of a soft spot for the Northern women, Lisa Nandy, Alison McGovern, Catherine McKinnell, Bridget Phillipson, but probably Gloria De Piero has a better shot at getting it

    Just about the only one I declined to back is Diane Abbott :)
    I think until a few days ago, wasn't it Lucy Powell?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone else see Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband listlessly wandering around Westminster for the next five years?

    I reckon Sheffield Hallam and Doncaster North will be the first by-elections of the new Parliament, possibly within months.

    I have this image of the two of them whiling away five years by going off for day trips in a battered Morris Minor soft-top, flask and sandwiches packed, checking out the National Trust properties in Kent and Surrey.....

    Perhaps the BBC could film it?
    Alternatively Miliband and Clegg could remember that their constituencies exist and try to help their constituents as penance.

    Teddy Taylor being a sort of example.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    If Labour select a woman, it really should be Stella Creasy. The other ladies I don't really see as being good candidates.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Dan Jarvis could win the Deputy Leadership producing an Umunna-Jarvis 'dream ticket'. Umunna would need a white man with working class roots, much as Obama picked Biden as his VP candidate

    Only if one of them gets a sex change.

    Hattie's batty, one or more them must be a woman, rule is still in place I think.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    Is there any possible way that Labour can not select a woman this time?

    If there's a way, we can be reasonably sure Labour will find it...
    Labour would be mad not to select Yyvette this time. They have a natural advantage these days with women voters which would only be cemented by having a female leader. Means they could rely on about 33% even when doing less than brilliantly.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Plato said:

    Me too - what can they possibly do now bar feel like they lost their Party?

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone else see Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband listlessly wandering around Westminster for the next five years?

    I reckon Sheffield Hallam and Doncaster North will be the first by-elections of the new Parliament, possibly within months.

    Miliband never had his party.
    IIRC, the members didn't want him and the MPs didn't want him. It was the Union vote.

  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Oh dear...

    @JournoStephen: The @ScottishLabour Party is on life support and Unite is coming at it with a pillow. Madness. https://t.co/XnizLk5efQ

    NOOOOOOO.

    Murphy must stay.

    The Nats are scared of him, he's the man who can turn Labour around. The Nats can't stop talking about him, that just shows you how much they fear him.

    Murphy MUST go on and on and on.

    Not only that but now UNITE have gone public, the Labour Party CANNOT get rid of Murphy without appearing to be in the pocket of the Unions. They must keep Murphy to demonstrate that the Unions don't run Labour.
    Time to hit twitter #JimMustStay.

  • Plato said:

    Perhaps we should form a self-help group? Which stage of grief are you in? I'm still in Denial.

    RIP Dave Can't Win Here

    At the risk of being banned, I have to confess that after 2 days I am suffering withdrawal problems from having no articles on here on why the Conservatives will find it impossible/difficult to win a General Election. Are there any other members of the PB community suffering similar problems? Let us all be open and admit to our problem.

    Still at the "Scared to admit a problem" stage.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    justin124 said:

    We are a bit overdue for a string of by-elections in Tory-held seats so it’s not that unlikely that by mid 2017 Cameron’s majority will be well down into single figures – say 6 or even 4.

    Younger politicians plus longer life expectancy means that by-elections are and should be incredibly rare now.
    Six deaths in total during the last Parliament, 14 resignations for various reasons.
    http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/by-elections/by-elections-2010/
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Oh it was the whole interview manner and then he patted Chukka on the head by saying he'd been his intern.

    The whole thing was just awkward - I wondered where post-riot articulate Lammy had gone again.

    He returned to the Mastermind persona. That gives me an excuse to report this [once again!]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWwyVQ2IQuE
    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    I thought he did well post-riots but came across like a bit of brain donor yesterday.

    For a supposedly clever chap he hides it rather too well.

    Lammy for Labour leader?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/32671418

    If it's true that half of Labour's members come from London, it may happen. For that matter, they could do worse though he's still very lightweight.

    Lammy for Leader....now it really is getting bonkers....Putting aside his infamous mastermind performance, he was useless minister, so many cock-ups when he was at Department for Business, Innovation & Skills.
    What did he say yesterday?
    I remember him from the riots coverage, seemed like a good egg who understands the people.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dair said:

    I think until a few days ago, wasn't it Lucy Powell?

    Lucy was, is, and forever will remain, my favourite Labour campaign manager of all time, but even though I think the Labour party are collectively "not very smart", not even I think they are so completely mentally unhinged as to pick her for leader.

    Fill your boots though...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Plato said:

    That's appallingly low TO, anywhere much worse?

    AndyJS said:

    Plato said:

    Stoke Safe isTristram's?

    AndyJS said:

    Labour majorities in the Stoke-on-Trent seats:

    Central: 5,179 (previously 5,566)
    North: 4,836 (8,235)
    South: 2,539 (4,130)

    Tristram is MP for Stoke Central. His very low vote of 12,605 in 2010 fell even further to 12,220 this time. Turnout was pretty awful again, less than 50%.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000972
    I don't have a list of turnouts at the moment. I wish sites like the BBC would provide that sort of data.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. HYUFD, I must beg to differ. Umunna's a patronising, arrogant arse. I also dispute the 'charisma' attribute you give him.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @gordonchree: Labour MSP Neil Findlay resigns from the party's Scottish shadow cabinet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    AndyJS Yes, it may well be he gave as good as he got, Peterborough Labour were likely stirring the pot
  • AndyJS said:

    The same thing happened in 1992, although the local elections were held a month after the general election in that case.

    Plato said:

    Check out the Local Elections - Tories UP TWENTY EIGHT councils and still more to declare.

    bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/councils

    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    Labour only got FOUR London gains from the Tories?

    Hell's Teeth. I've been so overwhelmed by the total result and the SW that I hadn't noticed.

    Blimey.

    felix said:

    Some thoughts on the London regional polling. I was harangued on here by either speedy or lucky guy for suggesting that Labour would not get up to 10 London gains from the Tories alone. They actually got 4 - all north of the river and in many other seats the swing went to the Tories. I suspect 3 reasons:

    1. Measuring London is very difficult unless you very carefully wight re age, class, registration, etc.
    2. There can be enormous variations withing London - Battersea , eg is very different form Hampstead.
    3. I suspect Labour missed up to 3 N. London possibilities because of the absurd anti-islamophobia proposal. You target one religious group for support and risk offending others just a few streets away.

    Someone pointed out on the last thread that the Tories only lost eight seats in total, astonishing.
    The impressive thing is that the Conservatives have made gains on this set of local elections in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011 and now 2015.
    Do you know how many councillors the LibDems are down from their peak ? I'd guess at about 3000 now.
    I now have the Lib Dems down below 2,000 councillors. Their peak in 1996 was over 5,000.
    One PB Lib Dem said that less than 2,000 councillors would not happen and "just 1 MEP is a wet dream of yours" .
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone else see Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband listlessly wandering around Westminster for the next five years?

    I reckon Sheffield Hallam and Doncaster North will be the first by-elections of the new Parliament, possibly within months.

    I have this image of the two of them whiling away five years by going off for day trips in a battered Morris Minor soft-top, flask and sandwiches packed, checking out the National Trust properties in Kent and Surrey.....

    Perhaps the BBC could film it?
    I hope at least one of them decides to stick it out and represent their constituents.

    The different examples set by Blair and Brown were incredibly disrespectful and I'd be disappointed if they were established as the norm.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited May 2015
    Twitter
    euan mccolm @euanmccolm · 2m 2 minutes ago
    he says he has no intention of challenging for leadership or deputy leadership. (though he clearly wants to undermine them)

    euan mccolm @euanmccolm · 2m 2 minutes ago
    neil findlay msp, who lost to jim murphy in the party leadership contest last year, has resigned from the scottish shadow cabinet.

    LabourList ‏@LabourList now1 minute ago
    Two unions call on Jim Murphy to resign as Scottish Labour leader - and Neil Findlay resigns from the Scottish http://labli.st/1ciPUV1
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    calum said:

    My stake money was £1,500 - my strategy was:

    SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.

    SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.

    My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.

    I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:

    https://www.justgiving.com/Calum-Ferguson1/

    Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.

    Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    We are a bit overdue for a string of by-elections in Tory-held seats so it’s not that unlikely that by mid 2017 Cameron’s majority will be well down into single figures – say 6 or even 4.

    Younger politicians plus longer life expectancy means that by-elections are and should be incredibly rare now.
    Six deaths in total during the last Parliament, 14 resignations for various reasons.
    http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/by-elections/by-elections-2010/
    Lot of Labour Holds in there.

    "overdue for a string of by-elections in Tory-held seats" is an example of the gambler's fallacy.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    Is there any possible way that Labour can not select a woman this time?

    If there's a way, we can be reasonably sure Labour will find it...
    Labour would be mad not to select Yyvette this time. They have a natural advantage these days with women voters which would only be cemented by having a female leader. Means they could rely on about 33% even when doing less than brilliantly.
    I wouldn't go around saying that too loudly.
    Do you know any 'women'?
    My wife, for example, would be apoplectic with rage if anyone suggested she would vote on the grounds of gender.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    By my calcs the LDs are now within 10% of victory in just 15 seats.

    Con (10)
    Lab (3)
    SNP (2)

    So getting back to 1980s levels would be a good result for them...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    *CLAPS*
    LucyJones said:

    kle4 said:

    I had this same thought in 2010, and I think it is becoming even more acute now

    Tom Doran
    @portraitinflesh

    "Most people didn't vote Tory" is seamlessly becoming "most people are anti-Tory" in the left's collective mind. Disastrous. #GE2015

    And even more people didn't vote Labour, didn't vote SNP, etc, etc. Ipso facto most people are anti-Labour, anti-SNP, etc.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    ScottP/AndyJS If Umunna and Jarvis are elected Leader and Deputy Leader by the Labour Party electoral college then women cannot complain. It is the same argument Hillary's supporters were making in 2008 that she had to be on the ticket, in the end most voted for Obama-Biden anyway
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Does the BBC Results section list seat gains and losses anywhere?

    I can't see it!
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dan Jarvis could win the Deputy Leadership producing an Umunna-Jarvis 'dream ticket'. Umunna would need a white man with working class roots, much as Obama picked Biden as his VP candidate

    Only if one of them gets a sex change.

    Hattie's batty, one or more them must be a woman, rule is still in place I think.
    You are right, Hattie is batty. However I think you may have a comma in the wrong place. But any road up you do a good service by reminding us that it has to be one of each gender.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    I think until a few days ago, wasn't it Lucy Powell?

    Lucy was, is, and forever will remain, my favourite Labour campaign manager of all time, but even though I think the Labour party are collectively "not very smart", not even I think they are so completely mentally unhinged as to pick her for leader.

    Fill your boots though...
    The Dream Team of Dougie Alexander and Lucy Powell was irresistable.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    edited May 2015

    One thing we should be extra wary of the "what is important" and "is this a good / bad policy" questions in the polls...it was thought lots of things the Tories were doing / saying weren't important and Ed was scoring great on policy ideas like energy freeze etc.

    It makes sense now why Tories approach really didn't spend any time explaining particular policies and instead was "economic plan economic plan economic plan" (for months), "Labour / SNP", etc...

    Contrast Labour /Ed approach I have this very specific policy on energy prices and another on rent controls....each day a new specific policy targeted at a different group.
    Yes, it was crystal clear by polling day that one party had a long term economic plan - that phrase and its constant repetition was very New-Labour, probably came from Crosby, and probably won the election.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Carnyx said:

    calum said:

    My stake money was £1,500 - my strategy was:

    SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.

    SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.

    My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.

    I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:

    https://www.justgiving.com/Calum-Ferguson1/

    Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.

    Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
    I predict there will be very litlle value but who knows what will happen between now and then.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    john_zims said:

    @oxfordsimon
    'Angela Eagle is considering running..'

    Yes please.
    Calm down dear.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    My heartfelt sympathies, Sir.

    I'm a great believer in strong LotO to hold the HMG to account.

    Having another numpty isn't good for any of us.

    Just heard the BBC's Christian Fraser describe Andy Burnham as a strong contender because "he's popular with the unions". I'm Labour and my heart sinks. Popular with the unions….the Tories couldn't wish for more from the leader of the opposition. Extraordinary that two defeats on, so many of my colleagues in the Labour party continue to get these things backwards. How about being popular with the voters?

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Oh dear...

    @JournoStephen: The @ScottishLabour Party is on life support and Unite is coming at it with a pillow. Madness. https://t.co/XnizLk5efQ

    NOOOOOOO.

    Murphy must stay.

    The Nats are scared of him, he's the man who can turn Labour around. The Nats can't stop talking about him, that just shows you how much they fear him.

    Murphy MUST go on and on and on.

    Not only that but now UNITE have gone public, the Labour Party CANNOT get rid of Murphy without appearing to be in the pocket of the Unions. They must keep Murphy to demonstrate that the Unions don't run Labour.
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-mcternan-jim-murphy-is-a-proven-winner-1-3589554

    By his favourite (I assume) spin doctor/strategist, admittedly written when Mr M was appointed:

    "Ladies and gentleman, Jim Murphy has entered the building. The long-anticipated moment has arrived – a hugely experienced and talented Scottish politician has decided that his future lies in the Scottish Parliament, not the House of Commons. It’s a moment. The moment that Scottish Labour finally got serious [...]

    Murphy faces a challenge from the Left which will give a clarity to his policies and his positioning. Already Unite has set out its stall praising the “democratic socialist” (ie tried and failed leftist) credentials of the MSP Neil Findlay. Perhaps they have given too little thought to how many of their members work in the defence industries – on Faslane and the Clyde. These workers know Jim well as shadow defence secretary and supporter of Trident. [...]

    Can he win the 2016 election? Well, he won’t die wondering. What is for certain is that he is running to be First Minister and not to be the leader of the opposition. He will throw everything at it and in the process revolutionise the Scottish Labour Party. A new voice. New ideas. New ways of campaigning. New means of communication. It’s the prescription worldwide for renewal."


  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    I think until a few days ago, wasn't it Lucy Powell?

    Lucy was, is, and forever will remain, my favourite Labour campaign manager of all time, but even though I think the Labour party are collectively "not very smart", not even I think they are so completely mentally unhinged as to pick her for leader.

    Fill your boots though...
    Almost as competent as their 'Twitter' guru who broke electoral law - Bristol IIRC
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    We are a bit overdue for a string of by-elections in Tory-held seats so it’s not that unlikely that by mid 2017 Cameron’s majority will be well down into single figures – say 6 or even 4.

    Younger politicians plus longer life expectancy means that by-elections are and should be incredibly rare now.
    Six deaths in total during the last Parliament, 14 resignations for various reasons.
    http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/by-elections/by-elections-2010/
    Ouch.

    Perhaps that majority looks a bit smaller than I thought.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Labour need a serious rethink, they need a leader who can appeal to white working class voters above all else. They can pretty much take the poverty and poor immigrant vote for granted, but the WWC voters left to UKIP in droves. A softie Londoner with metropolitan instincts will not be able to reach out to these voters they badly need back in their tent. I hope for the sake of the country they can get someone who is actually decent, not another Kinnock clone or even a Blair clone for that matter.

    The other problem is the complete dearth of talent in the party.

    How do people rate Ian Murray? Getting a Scot into the top job may help stem the SNP tide.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited May 2015

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    Is there any possible way that Labour can not select a woman this time?

    If there's a way, we can be reasonably sure Labour will find it...
    Labour would be mad not to select Yyvette this time. They have a natural advantage these days with women voters which would only be cemented by having a female leader. Means they could rely on about 33% even when doing less than brilliantly.
    I wouldn't go around saying that too loudly.
    Do you know any 'women'?
    My wife, for example, would be apoplectic with rage if anyone suggested she would vote on the grounds of gender.
    Me too. I feel patronised by the assumption that women are only interested in issues like childcare and the NHS. I'm more interested in foreign policy and the economy. And education.

    For a party that likes to bang on about "equality", it's a bit perplexing that Labour seems to devote so much energy to developing separate interest groups.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ms Creasey was rude and misandrist to me on Twitter when she thought I was a bloke.

    No going back there for me. She's BFF with Caitlin Moron too.

    Says it all.

    Miss Plato, I somewhat disagree on Cooper.

    Consider the alternatives. Umunna is as metropolitan as Miliband, less Communist but greasier and more aloof. Burnham's constantly appearing as if he's on the verge of tears. Jarvis could be good [he'd be the other one I'd consider], he's got a great background but little experience. Who else is there?

    Maybe Stella Creasy, but she hasn't been mentioned much.

    Cooper's voice is an octave or two lower than it was. Plus allies of her husband will be her allies too.

    Mind you, they chose Ed Miliband last time. Based on that quality of judgement, they'll probably make Umunna leader.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    MaxPB said:

    Labour need a serious rethink, they need a leader who can appeal to white working class voters above all else. They can pretty much take the poverty and poor immigrant vote for granted, but the WWC voters left to UKIP in droves. A softie Londoner with metropolitan instincts will not be able to reach out to these voters they badly need back in their tent. I hope for the sake of the country they can get someone who is actually decent, not another Kinnock clone or even a Blair clone for that matter.

    The other problem is the complete dearth of talent in the party.

    How do people rate Ian Murray? Getting a Scot into the top job may help stem the SNP tide.

    They can't have a Scottish leader again. They will never capture English WWC votes with a leader who may be unable to vote on all issues in Parliament
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Election fact: for every Conservative voter in Scotland, there were 1.63 Labour voters.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    AndyJS said:

    Plato said:

    That's appallingly low TO, anywhere much worse?

    AndyJS said:

    Plato said:

    Stoke Safe isTristram's?

    AndyJS said:

    Labour majorities in the Stoke-on-Trent seats:

    Central: 5,179 (previously 5,566)
    North: 4,836 (8,235)
    South: 2,539 (4,130)

    Tristram is MP for Stoke Central. His very low vote of 12,605 in 2010 fell even further to 12,220 this time. Turnout was pretty awful again, less than 50%.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000972
    I don't have a list of turnouts at the moment. I wish sites like the BBC would provide that sort of data.
    Manchester Central 49.2

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Alistair said:

    Carnyx said:

    calum said:

    My stake money was £1,500 - my strategy was:

    SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.

    SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.

    My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.

    I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:

    https://www.justgiving.com/Calum-Ferguson1/

    Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.

    Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
    I predict there will be very litlle value but who knows what will happen between now and then.
    Opening prices for Orkney and Zetland will be interesting.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    MaxPB said:

    Labour need a serious rethink, they need a leader who can appeal to white working class voters above all else. They can pretty much take the poverty and poor immigrant vote for granted, but the WWC voters left to UKIP in droves. A softie Londoner with metropolitan instincts will not be able to reach out to these voters they badly need back in their tent. I hope for the sake of the country they can get someone who is actually decent, not another Kinnock clone or even a Blair clone for that matter.

    The other problem is the complete dearth of talent in the party.

    How do people rate Ian Murray? Getting a Scot into the top job may help stem the SNP tide.

    I don't know much about him except that he is reportedly anti-Trident and anti-austerity. Which may be what they want or may not.

    Plus he's Scottish, which may be an issue with some folk (not me, obviously).
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    It was the Unions that chose Ed Miliband. The parliamentary party chose David Miliband. This time they'll be having one-member, one-vote - which should minimise the union influence.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Text of Neil Findlay's resignation announcement. http://t.co/NTVM2EnIhM
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Miss Plato, hmm, then I've gone off her. Sexism's unacceptable, and the view taken by some it's ok if it's against men is despicable.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    ScottP/AndyJS If Umunna and Jarvis are elected Leader and Deputy Leader by the Labour Party electoral college then women cannot complain. It is the same argument Hillary's supporters were making in 2008 that she had to be on the ticket, in the end most voted for Obama-Biden anyway

    They can't be elected. labour's election rules state (as I understand it) that at least one of them must have ovaries. Of course 2 wimmin would be fine though
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    MaxPB Nope, Labour's future victories will be built on winning over the centrist suburban middle class to add to public sector workers and ethnic minorities, eg Labour did better in Brighton and Hove, Chester and Hendon and Finchley on Thursday than they did in Rugby, Gower, Romford and Chatham. That was the coalition Obama built, most of the US white working class voted for McCain and Romney, Labour will need to do the same
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Tom Peck ‏@tompeck
    Interesting ICM/YouGov poll in this morning's Times. Says 90% of people thought the pollsters did a great job.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    Is there any possible way that Labour can not select a woman this time?

    If there's a way, we can be reasonably sure Labour will find it...
    Labour would be mad not to select Yyvette this time. They have a natural advantage these days with women voters which would only be cemented by having a female leader. Means they could rely on about 33% even when doing less than brilliantly.
    I wouldn't go around saying that too loudly.
    Do you know any 'women'?
    My wife, for example, would be apoplectic with rage if anyone suggested she would vote on the grounds of gender.
    It's based on the statistics which show the Tories used to have a big advantage with female voters until 2005, but since then it's reversed and Labour are usually ahead. We'll have to wait to see what the figures show this time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit If, as I expect, the EU referendum is something like 51-49% In then UKIP will get as big a boost across the UK as the SNP did in Scotland. Certainly they could pick up a few more eurosceptic Tories if a Cameroon leads the Tories in 2020, which is why the Tories will probably pick a rightwinger after Cameron, albeit offering up a chance for Labour and the LDs to win back centrist voters in the suburbs

    Mostly agree with that.

    I think that the next Con leader will be determined by the state of the other parties inc the new Lab leader, the EU referendum result and the manner of Cameron's departure.

    I think Cam will resign as party leader in early 2018 after the referendum, remaining as PM while an orderly contest is held over a few months, then the new leader has 18 months to sell himself to the electorate. By the way sell Boris in this market, never ever going to happen!
  • Miss Plato, hmm, then I've gone off her. Sexism's unacceptable, and the view taken by some it's ok if it's against men is despicable.

    Her nickname is Stella Greasy amongst the Labour MPs.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Tom Peck ‏@tompeck
    Interesting ICM/YouGov poll in this morning's Times. Says 90% of people thought the pollsters did a great job.

    @simonsketch: But when adjusted for error, the real figure is 110 per cent approval https://t.co/6rtqfXG67b
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Carnyx said:

    calum said:

    My stake money was £1,500 - my strategy was:

    SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.

    SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.

    My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.

    I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:

    https://www.justgiving.com/Calum-Ferguson1/

    Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.

    Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
    The Greens and the Tories look likely to provide the value. The SNP constituency:Green list vote will be a mega story that sets electoral reform in the UK even further back.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @stephenkb: Re-reading my interview with Harriet Harman. This feels quite painful, in retrospect: http://t.co/Fq4bBpX2T0 #GE2015 http://t.co/LB6bRFDqfU
  • Scott_P said:

    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Text of Neil Findlay's resignation announcement. http://t.co/NTVM2EnIhM

    I wonder if Unite were less than forthcoming in their financial and people support for SLAB at the GE?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: This is the i/view that really made a lot of people in Westminster sit up + take notice of @leicesterliz. Timely now https://t.co/9CwjoFAnL7
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    MD Obama is patronising and arrogant, so what?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    With Cooper running for the leadership, at least we will be spared the embarrassing spectacle of Diane Abbot only making it to the contest proper when another candidate drops out in her favour to ensure a female candidate gets a chance.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,596
    MaxPB said:

    Labour need a serious rethink, they need a leader who can appeal to white working class voters above all else. They can pretty much take the poverty and poor immigrant vote for granted, but the WWC voters left to UKIP in droves. A softie Londoner with metropolitan instincts will not be able to reach out to these voters they badly need back in their tent. I hope for the sake of the country they can get someone who is actually decent, not another Kinnock clone or even a Blair clone for that matter.

    The other problem is the complete dearth of talent in the party.

    How do people rate Ian Murray? Getting a Scot into the top job may help stem the SNP tide.

    He only got in by accident, after his SNP opponent was caught making offensive comments on social media under a pseudonym.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    edited May 2015

    Carnyx said:

    calum said:

    My stake money was £1,500 - my strategy was:

    SLAB seats - I was covered with William Hill for anything up to 20 seats. As SLAB came in at 1 seat my net profit was £20,700.

    SPIN SNP seats - I bought at 20.5 seats - profit of £1,000.

    My only constituency bet was £150 on the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland - final result SLID 41% and SNP 38%, I think Carmichael's bacon was saved by tactical voting.

    I will be donating a chunk of my winnings to my MND Campaign:

    https://www.justgiving.com/Calum-Ferguson1/

    Many thanks to William Hill !! - I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, I fear the bookies will be a bit more on their game next year, but I'm sure between us we will hit them hard again.

    Congratulations - belatedly - to you and to Mr @antifrank . I will be paying considerable attention to your posts in about 9 months' time for Holyrood ...
    The Greens and the Tories look likely to provide the value. The SNP constituency:Green list vote will be a mega story that sets electoral reform in the UK even further back.
    Given that the Holyrood system was fiddled in the first place to prevent the SNP winning and calling a majority (self-confeassedly by its Labour devisers), I'm not sure there is much of a reputation to damage.

    But you make a very good point about the Greens - though I think in some airts of the western central belt, it'll be more the non-Sheridan socialists rather than the Greens who get the list vote, especially after their involvement in the RIC in indyref. And in some other parts, UKIP. Both pressing on Labour and the LDs.

    [Edit} UKIP not linked with a SNP constituency vote so much as UKIP for both constituency and list - but it could press on Labour.
This discussion has been closed.