politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Our GE15 prediction competition: results + chart showing CO

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

Just noticed that Ed's vote was up just 5% in Doncaster North, which I think is one of the lowest increases for a party leader the first time they contest a seat after being elected.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000669

The likes of Hague, Major, Brown, Howard and Clegg were good fits for their constituencies.

Does anyone think EdM was a good fit with Doncaster North ?

AndyJS said:

The Morley & Outwood declaration:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tl7yAD4SGg

Scott_P said:

Apparently someone is offering a case of Champagne as a reward for any information leading to the whereabouts of the EdStone...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do we or will we get e.g. from Exit Poll, any information on ethnicity? I am interested in something Crosby said the long video and I would be interested to see if it came to pass.

SouthamObserver said:

@HYUFD - Umunna Leader, Jarvis Deputy

I'd do it the other way round. But under Labour rules one or the other has to be a woman, I think. I'd happily see Kendall or Creasy alongside Jarvis. Creasy and Umunna together would not work. Kendall in charge and Umunna as deputy might be OK.

rcs1000 said:

From vice.com

HOW CAN THE TORIES WIN WHEN ME AND MY FRIENDS ALL VOTE LABOUR?

"Where are these people!?"

"I know! I just don't understand it. Everyone on my course at SOAS is Labour or Green."

"I know. Like, all the people I follow on Twitter were lighting up with #milifandom. I thought that was the moment we'd broken through."

"It was all over the social feeds I've carefully curated with people whose opinions I agree with."

"It's not like we only move in shallow circles of people who reinforce our own prejudices, is it?"

"Course not."

"I mix with loads of different people in my job at an NGO."

"Precisely."

AndyJS said:

Does anyone know whether it must have been the case that quite a few Catholics must have voted for the Unionist candidate in order for him to win with 46% of the vote in Fermanagh & South Tyrone? I thought the Catholic population was something like 60% in that constituency.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/N06000007

Ishmael_X said:

There's a thought to fail to make my flesh creep, given what I feared the Conservative Party was going to look like on 9 May 2015, until 3 days ago.

Give it a rest.

HYUFD said:

notme Miliband did actually see a small percentage increase on 2010, and had they held their Scottish seats he would have won 270 or so seats, the same number Kinnock got in 1992. It is more 1992 or 2001 than 1997, 2010 was their 1997 and would have been more so had Cameron squeezed the LD vote as well as he did on Thursday

MonikerDiCanio said:

Alanbrooke said:

JK Rowling getting sledged by SNP and UKIP trolls, not pretty.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/booknews/11594516/JK-Rowling-suffers-Twitter-backlash-following-the-General-Election.html

JK Rowling has contributed enormous sums to Scotland through her hard work whereas Sturgeon is a huge drain on the Scottish purse. These idiots get everything the wrong way round.

Alanbrooke said:

AndyJS said:

Does anyone know whether it must have been the case that quite a few Catholics must have voted for the Unionist candidate in order for him to win with 46% of the vote in Fermanagh & South Tyrone? I thought the Catholic population was something like 60% in that constituency.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/N06000007

Slugger doesn't mention it in its post match analysis, though Turgon can be a biased in his analysis.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/05/08/fermanagh-south-tyrone-one-day-a-unionist-will-stand-on-that-stage-as-victor/

HYUFD said:

notme Miliband did actually see a small percentage increase on 2010, and had they held their Scottish seats he would have won 270 or so seats, the same number Kinnock got in 1992. It is more 1992 or 2001 than 1997, 2010 was their 1997 and would have been more so had Cameron squeezed the LD vote as well as he did on Thursday

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

From vice.com

HOW CAN THE TORIES WIN WHEN ME AND MY FRIENDS ALL VOTE LABOUR?

"Where are these people!?"

"I know! I just don't understand it. Everyone on my course at SOAS is Labour or Green."

"I know. Like, all the people I follow on Twitter were lighting up with #milifandom. I thought that was the moment we'd broken through."

"It was all over the social feeds I've carefully curated with people whose opinions I agree with."

"It's not like we only move in shallow circles of people who reinforce our own prejudices, is it?"

"Course not."

"I mix with loads of different people in my job at an NGO."

"Precisely."

Reminds me of someone who used to work at the BBC who told me they were dumbfounded by Boris winning the mayoral election in 2008 because they didn't know a single person who supported him.

kle4 said:

Alanbrooke said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

Evening all

I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.

Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.

Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.

You never know...

I think 2020 will be extremely difficult for the Tories, even if all the landmines e.g. EU, Scottish Problem, failed deficit reduction, don't go off.

If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.

The principal problem for the Tories in 2020 is that they'll be without Cameron. I don't like him and doubted his ability but he has shown himself to be a ruthless winner.

If the Tories have the sense to avoid Boris, they will be on their second woman leader or first from an ethnic backgorund. They will thrive happily post DC.

Boris is soon going to be just any other MP. Being Mayor have him more leeway to be a bit maverick, indeed I think one has to be to be London Mayor, but as just another one of the team? I think he'll lose some of his public support, which given how long he's been in the public eye may begin to fade as well. One of the newer faces it has to be, surely.

AndreaParma_82 said:

Birmingham Edgabaston

Con won it in the locals by a whisker
16733 votes to 16728

In Northfield wards Labour was still a bit ahead (they were behind last year)
16201 to 15527 votes

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jesus wept...what knuckle dragger thought his was a suitable protest?

twitter.com/gwarn/status/597091495267737600

And people wonder why there are shy Tories. You never see 'Labour scum' tagged anywhere, do you, whereas 'Tory scum' is everywhere... Oh well, at least we have a majority to comfort us..... titter...

AndyJS said:

another_richard said:

Two Labour MPs who deserve a greater role in the party are the two Labour MPs who gained seats in 2010:

Toby Perkins of Chesterfield
Simon Danscuk of Rochdale

They both share the drawbacks of having experience of the real world and being non-metropolitan.

The impression I get is that Danczuk is hated by the majority of people at the top of the Labour Party.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Ed Stone
-------

It was the idea of Torsten Henricson-Bell, 32, the director of policy. A former Treasury economist, he wanted a version of Tony Blair’s pledge card which worked so well for Labour in the 1997 election.

‘Torsten thought we were not getting our policy ideas across, so he persuaded Ed to do the stone,’ said another Labour insider.

Axelrod, on a rare trip to London, enthusiastically signed off on the hubristic monument, having long championed the idea in the US of enshrining policy ideas in ‘stone tablets’. Tom Baldwin, one of Miliband’s media advisers, was also keen.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074175/Ed-writing-victory-speech-came-exit-poll-ANDREW-PIERCE-reflects-catastrophic-night-Labour-leader.html

Were they all drugs?

Flightpathl said:

HYUFD said:

notme Miliband did actually see a small percentage increase on 2010, and had they held their Scottish seats he would have won 270 or so seats, the same number Kinnock got in 1992. It is more 1992 or 2001 than 1997, 2010 was their 1997 and would have been more so had Cameron squeezed the LD vote as well as he did on Thursday

Its no surprise to see a small overall in crease in the Labour %age, given its low base. The Tory vote is a slight increase which is more than Mrs T managed.

Under any PR system where the threshold is 5% then the SNP would not get a single seat.
At least the annoying difference between seats for Tories and LDs relative to their similar %age vote share has now been resolved.

I see turnout at this vital election was up by a massive 1%

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jesus wept...what knuckle dragger thought his was a suitable protest?

twitter.com/gwarn/status/597091495267737600

And people wonder why there are shy Tories. You never see 'Labour scum' tagged anywhere, do you, whereas 'Tory scum' is everywhere... Oh well, at least we have a majority to comfort us..... titter...

I've seen the term 'scum' used on here quite a bit. Whether it apppended 'Labour' I can't recall..

notme said:

stodge said:

Evening all

I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.

Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.

Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.

You never know...

There is a difference. In 1992 labour made substantial gains. Those big majorities that delivered a 102 majority were slashed. Seats that seemed impossible now became reachable, a majority of 21 is within reach when you are moving towards it, but not so much when it is moving away from you.

This is their 1997 moment. They should have had it in 2010, but they, unlike the conservatives in 1997, accurately worked out where to draw the line in the sand and campaigned effectively.

eek said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flightpathl said:

Dair said:

Alanbrooke said:

Dair said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The EU was expecting Ed Miliband to get in and were shocked that David Cameron won. He is the most powerful leader in Europe

What about Angela Merkel?

That said, I regarded the chances of Cameron getting anything substantive from EU are practically nil, given the absolute contempt with which EU leaders regard any politician who attempts to reform the EU, and the lack of time for any serious negotiation. I still believe that, but I'll give Cameron about 5% more of a chance of doing it given his against the odds win here.

Please do remember: Cameron is not negotiating with "the EU". Juncker and the EU gets no say. The only people that matter are the other heads of government. This is simultaneously much harder (20 odd people to negotiate with) and much easier (because there are changes to the EU that would be politically popular in a lot of countries). Angel Merkel, for example, would like very much to stop benefit tourism.

What the BOOers don't understand is how much the Germans and French are drooling at the prospect of the big corporate prizes they are waiting to move from Britain if the Out was successful.

Oh really ? Which ones ?

Oh, just for an example. Nissan.

Its a fair point. Renault-Nissan-AvtoVAZ have 36 plants all over Europe and Russia.
These things would not happen overnight but the trend would be inevitable.
Plus jobs which might come here will go somewhere else.

Then maybe they might not. 'Might' not. Then again when you are playing Russian Roulette you might not blow your head off.

So all you have is more Europhile scaremongering then. Just like your claims there would be no real difference between EU and EEA membership. Why do you bother to post this rubbish when you clearly know nothing about it?

That is already happening. The french government have bought more of Renault to increase their voting rights to try and keep Renault's french factories open at the expense of anywhere else. Supposedly the aim as a minimum is to force Nissan to move the next version of the Juke to a Renault factory that is threatened with closure.

The fact the suggest factory is uneconomic and Renault desperately wants to close it to remove excess capacity is never here nor there...

another_richard said:

Two Labour MPs who deserve a greater role in the party are the two Labour MPs who gained seats in 2010:

Toby Perkins of Chesterfield
Simon Danscuk of Rochdale

They both share the drawbacks of having experience of the real world and being non-metropolitan.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dair said:

I have no idea how much of this article to trust.

But it is truly juicy. There will be some excellent stories from this campaign.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074175/Ed-writing-victory-speech-came-exit-poll-ANDREW-PIERCE-reflects-catastrophic-night-Labour-leader.html

It is interesting....Ed thought he had won, Labour didn't know until they started to ring candidates after 10pm.

Tories knew....Loud Howard (TDN) blurted out what Crosby / Messina had said to him earlier in the evening. Even bloody Bet Fred knew. But the leader of the opposition was in his bubble thinking he had won.

For all the talk of this ground army, sounds like they didn't have the number crunchers / detailed analysis (or nobody dared tell Miliband).

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Just catching up on the #ThanetRigged Hoohaa, can any PBers tell me how usual it is for a party to perform considerably better in simultaneous locals than in the GE?

Not helped by the fact the count took hours to declare. One big reason why Councils should be counting votes as soon as they collect the ballot boxes.

AndreaParma_82 said:

Re Thanet Council

in the South Thanet wards using top vote per party it is something like UKIP 12693 votes Con 11729

The constituency have 2 wards falling within Dover council area to be added.

Anyway, I read Labour led Conservatives in Morley and Outwood wards in the locals but lost the GE.

HYUFD said:

Charles Rubbish, Miliband was Labour's IDS, Foot was Labour's Hague, Umunna is Labour's Obama

JEO said:

john_zims said:

@kle4

'UKIP's position that a Cameron led referendum was worth nothing as he'd campaign for In and the media would aid him in presenting baubles as significant changes, I thought was unwarranted - a lot of people and media and some politicians would break ranks to challenge that, so I think people will vote Out if asked.'

Despite what the EU and various commentators were saying before the election I think Cameron will get a good deal now he has a majority plus the size of the UKIP vote.

Just look at the pains Junker & co are taking to try and keep bankrupt Greece in the Euro.
Germany is the major player here and will not want the UK outside the EU.

I think that's exactly right. The various EU powerbrokers were hoping to avoid Cameron getting back in. They thought even if he was in, he'd be hamstrung by the Liberal Democrats doing their bidding from within government. They also hoped that UKIP would be a busted flush and they could dismiss them as a passing flash in the pan.

But now Cameron has not only got an absolute majority, but there's a 13% UKIP vote. Half of the electorate voted for one of the two eurosceptic parties. Cameron has real leverage here so he can really win a lot back if he wants to. There's no reason to settle for just some symbolic changes or something that's not legally binding. The first priority should be limits on immigration change, because if we miss the immigration pledge again we'll be in trouble come 2030, but we should also look to get fisheries and farm reform too.

HYUFD said:

Charles Rubbish, Miliband was Labour's IDS, Foot was Labour's Hague, Umunna is Labour's Obama

TheScreamingEagles said:

Post election Survation poll


Headline Voting Intention:
CON 40%; LAB 31%; UKIP 12%; LD 6%; SNP 5%; GREEN 3%; OTHER 2%

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

Evening all

I see there are already Tories hubristically assuming they will make further gains in 2020.

Back in 1992, there were Conservatives who believed, having won four general elections, they would be in power for ever.

Remind me how that turned out - it's perfectly conceivable we could be looking at the hollowed-out remnants of the Conservative Party five years from now.

You never know...

I think 2020 will be extremely difficult for the Tories, even if all the landmines e.g. EU, Scottish Problem, failed deficit reduction, don't go off.

If they get through their equalized constituencies that will I believe give them 10-20 extra, but there will be a huge number of factors against them.

Dair said:

I have no idea how much of this article to trust.

But it is truly juicy. There will be some excellent stories from this campaign.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074175/Ed-writing-victory-speech-came-exit-poll-ANDREW-PIERCE-reflects-catastrophic-night-Labour-leader.html