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Is it now safe to say we have passed peak kipper?
(Chucks large ginger tomcat at the pigeons...)0 -
One or two pundits and tipsters might be a bit more reticent in the future as well. We could do with hearing a bit less about the LD incumbency factor, etcantifrank said:
I made a very similar point yesterday about how small polling errors akin to those we saw in the Scottish referendum could lead to an overall majority either way. But I think the pollsters need to start from deep humility and a recognition that this has been a catastrophic election for them.Casino_Royale said:
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.antifrank said:
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
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In 2010 Labour had a 1983-style vote share and a 1992-style number of seats. This time they registered both a 1987-style vote share and seats.0
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So using the UK Polling Report advanced swingometer UNS on the vote shares with adjustments for Scotland and Wales would have given about CON 321 LAB 240 SNP 55 LIB 11.
Not bad. National polls are more than mood music, if they're actually right.0 -
How far off was the Ashcroft poll about a week ago that had the Tories up 6%? I don't recall the full set of numbers on that, but IIRC it was close to the actual result.Casino_Royale said:
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.antifrank said:
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
For me, this has to be a death knell for online panel-based polling in its current form. I suspect that post mortems will show anchoring to have been a problem - that people's past responses to a poll will frame their answers to the next thereby introducing an inertia to their VI responses that is not present in the un-polled population.0 -
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What credible left wing replacement?eek said:
Why. With Farron as a leader the LD's are a credible left wing replacement party instead of a protest vote...Speedy said:As for the LD, Farron is the probable winner, Lamb is tainted by his coalition association.
However there is no future for the LD, they let Clegg lead them to a huge wipeout thinking that LD incumbency and tactical voting will make it all ok.
The LD and Labour should start merger talks.
There is no LD party left.
The only think that Farron can do is start merger talks with Labour,
and Labour would probably accept it because they need a serious revamp as an English only party.0 -
Does the student know it starts at noon ?malcolmg said:
Harry, 56 at least you mean...........TGOHF said:
There will be at least one MP laughing at his "jokes". A. Salmond from Gordon.malcolmg said:
Be nice to hear more of Eck , we will get him on box more often now as he knocks Westminster into shapeAlanbrooke said:
5 years of neutered rage ahoy !CarlottaVance said:
Is Eck drafting Osborne's budget?Alanbrooke said:scotslass said:Alanbrooke
56 out of 59. Get used to it. The NATS won huge and Salmond's back virtue of the people of Gordon. Ho Ho Ho.
how's that holding the balance of power going for you ?
Ed giving in to your demands ?
so no different than the last Parliment. 0 -
Lucky if they let them clean the toilets, not enough of them for a shift rota.Philip_Thompson said:
Simple solution is a straight swap of opposition LD and SNP surely.oxfordsimon said:Going to be interesting to see how PMQs are reconfigured. Who gets to ask questions every week? In what order?
IE SNP gets two questions a week. LD I think get 1 a fortnight. For leaders obviously.0 -
Speedy said:
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down.williamglenn said:
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?Speedy said:
John Major's term will look like a picknick.HYUFD said:Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.
People who have underestimated Cameron have repeatedly been wrong.
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What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
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John Redwood made some eminently sensible comments despite BBC baiting. Really hope Cameron can negotiate a good deal that will make our continued membership sustainable (for the sake of other countries too where the people are concerned with the current arrangement).williamglenn said:
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?Speedy said:
John Major's term will look like a picknick.HYUFD said:Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
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Nuneaton was the point when the exit poll was shown to be in the realm of mass hat-eating.0
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Labour new intake
Karin Smyth
Colleen Fletcher
Mattehw Pennycook
Tulip Siddiq
Vicky Foxcroft
Richard Burgon
Kate Hollern
Ruth Smeeth
Marie Rimmer
Helen Hayes
Jo Cox
Angela Rayner
Melanie Onn
Judith Cummins
Christina Rees
Peter Dowd
Harry Harpham
Sue Hayman
Keir Starmer
Gerald Jones
Rachel Maskell
Conor McGinn
Kate Osamor
Nick Thomas-Symonds
Holly Lynch-Walker
Naseem Shah
Daniel Zeichner
Margaret Greenwood
Thangam Debbonaire
Chris Matheson
Paula Sherriff
Jess Philips
Imran Hussain
Jeff Smith
Clive Lewis
Peter Kyle
Ruth Cadbury
Neil Coyle
Catherine West
Wes Streeting
Anna Turley
Jo Stevens
Rupa Huq
Julie Cooper
Cat Smith
Retreads
Rob Marris
Joan Ryan
Dawn Butler0 -
We'll vote to stay in the EU. Nailed on, and because it is not integral to people's being in the way nationality is, it'll shoot UkIP's fox I reckon.MarkHopkins said:Speedy said:
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down.williamglenn said:
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?Speedy said:
John Major's term will look like a picknick.HYUFD said:Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.
People who have underestimated Cameron have repeatedly been wrong.0 -
He's tenacious but he won't have Nick Clegg as his shield anymore.MarkHopkins said:Speedy said:
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down.williamglenn said:
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?Speedy said:
John Major's term will look like a picknick.HYUFD said:Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.
People who have underestimated Cameron have repeatedly been wrong.
Though he will probably replace him with the SNP.0 -
Ed Balls losing.Pulpstar said:What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
Although I'd bet on Julian Huppert, I'd always felt his chances of bucking the trend were being a bit overstated. The polling looked particularly iffy in Cambridge.0 -
For me Umunna is just as you describe and an empty suit.
If he had more than that about him, he'd be very successful - but I feel he has no personal substance at all.Patrick said:
Jarvis - As SO points out, he may fit the bill. I don't know him but seems, prima facie, to be human. No old stink attaches. Probably the one. Therefore Lasbour will choose another.HYUFD said:Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/2011
Umunna - me, me, me, god I'm beautiful. Have you noticed I'm black? My suits are sharper than yours. Tosser. Bye bye white van middle England. Dave's secret hope.
Cooper - Indelibly tainted with Balls' and Brown's stink. Sharp but shouty on TV. Not a warm likeable person. Old and stale.
Burnham - Mid Staffs. Professional northerner. Tosser. Idiot. Virgil from Thunderbirds doppelganger. Old and stale. Not a new idea or appreciation of why Labour failed so utterly in his head. Dave would be delighted.0 -
It was a series of staggering results TBH. I don't think any one particularly stands out, because the pattern was remarkably uniform: Labour making virtually no progress (or even going backwards) in Con/Lab marginals, the SNP sweeping nearly all before them, and the LibDems collapsing in strongholds as well as no-hope seats.Pulpstar said:What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.0 -
Will the SNP leader get 2 questions at PMQs, as the Lib Dems used to?0
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He's black, or a Northerner, or an ex soldier. She's a woman. Image over substance. That's been the problem, seems crazy to repeat it.Patrick said:
Jarvis - As SO points out, he may fit the bill. I don't know him but seems, prima facie, to be human. No old stink attaches. Probably the one. Therefore Lasbour will choose another.HYUFD said:Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/2011
Umunna - me, me, me, god I'm beautiful. Have you noticed I'm black? My suits are sharper than yours. Tosser. Bye bye white van middle England. Dave's secret hope.
Cooper - Indelibly tainted with Balls' and Brown's stink. Sharp but shouty on TV. Not a warm likeable person. Old and stale.
Burnham - Mid Staffs. Professional northerner. Tosser. Idiot. Virgil from Thunderbirds doppelganger. Old and stale. Not a new idea or appreciation of why Labour failed so utterly in his head. Dave would be delighted.0 -
Con hold Warwick0
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So much for the amazing Labour GOTV operation that was going to win them the election.SeanT said:Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.0 -
Swindon was the one.BannedInParis said:Nuneaton was the point when the exit poll was shown to be in the realm of mass hat-eating.
I called it then when it declared with a swing to the Tories about half an hour before Nuneaton.0 -
The Liberal/Tory seats look alot like the Labour/SNP seats in Scotland. So many of them look like they are very safe for the new MPs. It could take another seismic shift to get the seats back.
If the Libdems cannot get back to their by-election winning ways, and UKIP could make that very difficult in the next parliament, it is hard to see them regaining many seats in 2020 unless they can double their share of the popular vote.0 -
Where DZ found those 4000 voters from is a mystery - suspect much registration activity at the polytechnic. Huppert was static - his rival came back at the expense of the Cons.antifrank said:
Ed Balls losing.Pulpstar said:What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
Although I'd bet on Julian Huppert, I'd always felt his chances of bucking the trend were being a bit overstated. The polling looked particularly iffy in Cambridge.
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Ashcroft Monday 27 April 2015: Con 36%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 11%, Green 7%
Result: Con 37%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 13%, Green 4%
So only the Greens significantly off, and UKIP understated a bit as could have been expected given they are a surging party with a shy voter factor.0 -
Do you think Ed Miliband wonders if it was all worth it? Ripping apart his family, and failing.0
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Rod Crosby had repeatedly tipped it up. Ages ago, when Labour were 10% ahead in the polls. He was the only one who used the original version of the Lebo-Norpoth model even when it's own creators had tweaked it to unrecognisability.antifrank said:
Ed Balls losing.Pulpstar said:What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
Although I'd bet on Julian Huppert, I'd always felt his chances of bucking the trend were being a bit overstated. The polling looked particularly iffy in Cambridge.
He's a man who called this right.0 -
Labour as likely to lose seats to UKIP, power will seamlessly transition to Boris when Cameron is ready.Speedy said:
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down.williamglenn said:
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?Speedy said:
John Major's term will look like a picknick.HYUFD said:Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.0 -
Oh dear - so not the time or place for sour grapes.Speedy said:
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down.williamglenn said:
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?Speedy said:
John Major's term will look like a picknick.HYUFD said:Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.0 -
I got this totally and utterly wrong. sucked in by the polls so close together, especially on the day. Genuinely thought it would be a toss up....
In hindsight it was just obvious Labour risked a drubbing, the biggest giveaways were what party in any country has ever polled respectably when that far behind on leadership ratings and economic competence?
However, I just ignored the overwhelming evidence in front of me. These were two, huge, flashing warning signs that I ignored...coupled with the historic issue of Labour's lead being overstated, it was a BIG hole in Labour's propsects....Well done to those with far better foresight!0 -
im heading out but will be back later, yes you may have forgotten some I fear but need to check my notes for the amounts. I've got Tories within Farage, LDems x4 UKIP, Reckless losing and that's just off the top of my head.TheScreamingEagles said:
Just about to message you on that.isam said:
Jesus this is £160 quid isn't it? Did I forget about a big bet we had?Scrapheap_as_was said:what a night.
time for work.
i'll let the dust settle before sorting logistics re isam and payment process - no idea how that works!
You and eagles are buddies if you want to cut out the middle man take it out of what he owes me ?0 -
Umunna: narcissistic oily creep who edits his own wikipedia pageHYUFD said:Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/2011
Cooper: looks, sounds and is nasty; reminds everyone of Ed Balls
Burnham: the Butcher of Mid-Staffs
Jarvis: who? is he in the right union?
Labour have a real problem here in that as Miliblob has gone already they are stuck with picking someone quickly from the existing rabble of ghastly dullards. They are now paying the price for implementing racist and sexist candidate selection policies because they've got a PP padded out with totally useless fluff that is there because happens to have the right plumbing, or head covering, or whatever.
I just do not see how they get off this hook. They are like the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1809 trying to come up with a general who can take on Napoleon and settling on of the family clique. The Archduke Charles was, you know, quite good, but he still got owned by the opposition.
The next Labour PM isn't yet in Parliament. Maybe not even in politics.0 -
Um. ELBOW was a snapshot, not a prediction, as I frequently reminded Lord Ashcroft (kidding!).Pulpstar said:
I think the polls are useless.Casino_Royale said:
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.antifrank said:
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
The common theme uniting the SNP and Tories was decent leader ratings.
The final week of polls was surely a case of quantity over quality, even among the phone pollsters.
Ipsos MORI on polling day got close to the Tories on 36%, but overstated Lab on 35%. ComRes the same day had Con 35%, Lab 34%. , as did online pollster Opinium.
But ComRes on the 5th, had Con 35%, Lab 32%, so not too bad a shout.
The Phone polls last week (week-ending 1st) were a bit better:
His Lordship had Con 36, Lab 30 on 26th April, so not bad at all!
ICM the same day had Con 35, Lab 32.
And Ipsos MORI had Con 35 Lab 30 on the 29th April
And even some of the online polls had Cons on 35:
BMG's maiden poll (27th) was Con 35, Lab 32
YouGov 27th April was Con 35, Lab 34
They repeated this on 29th April
And another 35 v. 34 with Opinium on 30th April.
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GOTV was also going to win Indyref for Yes and R&S by election for the tories. Last refuge of the scoundrel.glw said:
So much for the amazing Labour GOTV operation that was going to win them the election.SeanT said:Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
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Has anyone discussed what will happen to Bercow? I can't see him being reinstalled as Speaker.0
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Balls for me - just perfect. No more stupid faces and juvenile hand-gestures at PMQs.Pulpstar said:
What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.0 -
I forgot the Prince of Denmark from the list of Labour new intake
Kinnock0 -
I don't remember the Lib Dems *ever* showing grace when they actually were 'winning here' so I am afraid they (and you) will just have to sup it up. Their trademark style of very personally focused negative campaigning won't be back and politics will be the better for it.JackW said:
I am saddened to hear you sound so bitter Marcus.Marcus01 said:Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
This "pointless political party" help to secure the nations future in 2010 and formed an integral part of one of the best post war governments the country has enjoyed.
A little grace might have been more appropriate Marcus. Sadly you couldn't manage it.0 -
The LD will go down further in 2020.Saltire said:The Liberal/Tory seats look alot like the Labour/SNP seats in Scotland. So many of them look like they are very safe for the new MPs. It could take another seismic shift to get the seats back.
If the Libdems cannot get back to their by-election winning ways, and UKIP could make that very difficult in the next parliament, it is hard to see them regaining many seats in 2020 unless they can double their share of the popular vote.
Now that they are out of contention in almost all their former seats, they will never get that tactical vote and have too few seats for any coalition prospects.
They will definitely lose Sheffield Hallam then.0 -
Hat tip to Rod. A brave man to steadfastly withstand the ridicule of the herd and stand by his own analysis. Bravo.Pulpstar said:
Rod Crosby had repeatedly tipped it up. Ages ago, when Labour were 10% ahead in the polls. He was the only one who used the original version of the Lebo-Norpoth model even when it's own creators had tweaked it to unrecognisability.antifrank said:
Ed Balls losing.Pulpstar said:What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
Although I'd bet on Julian Huppert, I'd always felt his chances of bucking the trend were being a bit overstated. The polling looked particularly iffy in Cambridge.
He's a man who called this right.
Also, congrats to the PB community as a whole. I have to say Labour supporters on here have been gracious in defeat to an extent one would never see on a US political site. Thanks to Mike, Robert and TSE for their work to make this such a thoughtful and stimulating site.0 -
No one event in particular, just a gradual realisation that the exit polls may just be correct, as one success followed another.Pulpstar said:What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Biggest laugh on the night would go to Ed Balls losing his seat – although to give him his due, he made a fine resignation speech.
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@AndreaParma_82 - what a FABULOUS name
Thangam Debbonaire
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I'll bite - yes for the time being. They'll have trouble keeping their support without Farage over the summer since they thrive on publicity. However - aren't there council elections in many places - have there been any announcements of results or aren't they being counted yet?foxinsoxuk said:Is it now safe to say we have passed peak kipper?
(Chucks large ginger tomcat at the pigeons...)0 -
Tories hold Warwick & Leamington with increased majority of 6,606:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001019
Just waiting now for St Ives.0 -
I actually feel a bit sorry for Balls (no, really!)SimonStClare said:
No one event in particular, just a gradual realisation that the exit polls may just be correct, as one success followed another.Pulpstar said:What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Biggest laugh on the night would go to Ed Balls losing his seat – although to give him his due, he made a fine resignation speech.
It's obvious he's held Ed's 'strategy' in utter contempt for the last 5 years and he's been vindicated in a highly unfortunate manner...0 -
Farron is the energetic and ambitious communicator from the Northern modest background, strong on social conservatism that can recapture the kipper vote. A surprising number of kippers had voted LD previously. He is strong on free speech and advocated repealling blasphemy laws despite being a Christian himself.eek said:
Why. With Farron as a leader the LD's are a credible left wing replacement party instead of a protest vote...Speedy said:As for the LD, Farron is the probable winner, Lamb is tainted by his coalition association.
However there is no future for the LD, they let Clegg lead them to a huge wipeout thinking that LD incumbency and tactical voting will make it all ok.
The LD and Labour should start merger talks.
I am not particularly a fan but cometh the hour cometh the man. He will rebuild the LDs as a left of centre party that would be a real alternative to Labour.
The LibDems will revive, but it will take a while.0 -
Will there be an emergency budget shortly ?0
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Well done to the Tories. No denying they ran an effective campaign. As gutted as I am, maybe it's for the best that they stay in government with Labour still so confused about what they stand for. I hope the Tories stick to the hints they dropped in the campaign about genuinely trying to share the recovery out more equally and hopefully ease off the austerity.
As for Labour, I'm still far from convinced that this defeat was caused by them being too "left-wing" and I fear that a shift rightwards will send Northern England the same way as Scotland in time.0 -
Counting beginning around about now.weejonnie said:
I'll bite - yes for the time being. They'll have trouble keeping their support without Farage over the summer since they thrive on publicity. However - aren't there council elections in many places - have there been any announcements of results or aren't they being counted yet?foxinsoxuk said:Is it now safe to say we have passed peak kipper?
(Chucks large ginger tomcat at the pigeons...)0 -
Can we take a moment of silence to remember the sacrifice that Ed's Lectern took over the course of this defeat. Dragged from back garden to back garden up and down the country.0
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Went to bed at 5.30am and woke up at 10.30am and WOW!! The most positive thing to come out of this in my opinion, is that there has been a massive 'clearout' of all the 'old faces, especially on the Labour side. You can't renew a party with all the old baggage hanging around.
The biggest losers for me are the broadcasters and their mediocre presenters. Every time Kay Burley and Anna Botting (SKY) came on, I just turned the sound off, their faces said it all. I didn't watch much of BBC but I would hazard a guess it was just as dire.
I have just watched Grant Shapps being subjected to two very belligerent interviews by Dermot Murnaghan and Andrew Neil. They seemed more interested in his 'Wiki' problems than anything else.
Not sorry to see Vince Cable go, so much for 'demanding' the Lib Dems have at least 24 ministers!!!
Sorry to see Ed Balls go but better for the Labour party in the long run. One of the few 'characters' in parliament.
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Remember polls are GB only.
Con are on 36.9 in UK. I don't have GB figure but it will be near to 38.0 -
YG tonight ?
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Rotherham council so far
Lab 9 wards
UKIP 1
11 still to be declared0 -
The consequences will be even more interesting that that in my opinion. Ex-Tory euroscepticism as the raison d'etre for UKIP will be dead, but they are already morphing into the opposition to Labour in working class areas. Long-term the threat to Labour is much greater and this would not go away after losing a referendum. Labour could even face a similar existential crisis to what has played out in Scotland after the independence referendum was lost.Pulpstar said:
We'll vote to stay in the EU. Nailed on, and because it is not integral to people's being in the way nationality is, it'll shoot UkIP's fox I reckon.MarkHopkins said:Speedy said:
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down.williamglenn said:
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?Speedy said:
John Major's term will look like a picknick.HYUFD said:Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.
People who have underestimated Cameron have repeatedly been wrong.0 -
Balls and then Cable were my momentsPlato said:Balls for me - just perfect. No more stupid faces and juvenile hand-gestures at PMQs.
Pulpstar said:What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives. Broxtowe was also very sweet after the weeks of insufferable boasts from the XMP. 0 -
Dan565 Labour needs Old and New Labour to win, just as the Tories need Thatcherites and One Nation types under FPTP0
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They will also find it very difficult to get funding.Speedy said:
The LD will go down further in 2020.Saltire said:The Liberal/Tory seats look alot like the Labour/SNP seats in Scotland. So many of them look like they are very safe for the new MPs. It could take another seismic shift to get the seats back.
If the Libdems cannot get back to their by-election winning ways, and UKIP could make that very difficult in the next parliament, it is hard to see them regaining many seats in 2020 unless they can double their share of the popular vote.
Now that they are out of contention in almost all their former seats, they will never get that tactical vote and have too few seats for any coalition prospects.
They will definitely lose Sheffield Hallam then.
Well, not from anyone legit.... ;-)0 -
Con Gain lolAndyJS said:Tories hold Warwick & Leamington with increased majority of 6,606:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001019
Just waiting now for St Ives.0 -
Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander losing their seats in Scotland, and just look at the candidates they were replaced with...Pulpstar said:
What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.0 -
I think they will do ok without Farage as long as they have a charismatic but less divisive leader.weejonnie said:
I'll bite - yes for the time being. They'll have trouble keeping their support without Farage over the summer since they thrive on publicity. However - aren't there council elections in many places - have there been any announcements of results or aren't they being counted yet?foxinsoxuk said:Is it now safe to say we have passed peak kipper?
(Chucks large ginger tomcat at the pigeons...)
Well they might get Carswell, he will stir the anti-UKIP vote less than Farage while being equally populist but without all the racist bits.
With the next 5 years being all about the EU and devolution, Carswell is the expert on that so they will do ok.
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Someone needs to do the calculation:
How big a lead does Lab now need for a majority on UNS?
It might well be over 6%.
If so, system is now biased to Con on EXISTING boundaries!0 -
It would appear that far from not being conservative enough, in the SW particularly but also nationwide, Cameron is just the right amount of conservative.SeanT said:Bloody hell. Just checked the results in Cornwall. The Tory victories were huge.
Previous marginals now have Tory majorities of 6000-8000.
The Tory majority in Truro is.... 14,000.
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And of course the Euro-ref to keep them entertained.weejonnie said:
I'll bite - yes for the time being. They'll have trouble keeping their support without Farage over the summer since they thrive on publicity. However - aren't there council elections in many places - have there been any announcements of results or aren't they being counted yet?foxinsoxuk said:Is it now safe to say we have passed peak kipper?
(Chucks large ginger tomcat at the pigeons...)
Though on this I think "In" will win. Not because of the merits of the arguments, but because referenda are usually treated as a way to kick a mid term government where it hurts. One of many reasons that referendums are a poor form of decision making.0 -
Although they did contest everywhere in NI this time, but only got 1.4%!MikeL said:Remember polls are GB only.
Con are on 36.9 in UK. I don't have GB figure but it will be near to 38.0 -
The exit poll. I nearly dropped my wine when I saw that. I knew it could not be right. And it was not.Pulpstar said:What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
When is the televised hat eating due to be shown?
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We had locals - but counting delayed until tomorrow.weejonnie said:
I'll bite - yes for the time being. They'll have trouble keeping their support without Farage over the summer since they thrive on publicity. However - aren't there council elections in many places - have there been any announcements of results or aren't they being counted yet?foxinsoxuk said:Is it now safe to say we have passed peak kipper?
(Chucks large ginger tomcat at the pigeons...)0 -
The Tories need to poll 23,389+ more votes than Labour in St Ives in order to have a 2 million vote advantage.0
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Looking at the (final-1) %ges the Labour vote went up in percentages more than the Tory vote did - and yet Labour lost. Someone, not a million miles away from electoralcalculus, will have to work out whether Labour voter efficiency has taken a very severe knock (or the tory one has improved substantially.)0
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Glorious wasn't it.fitalass said:Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander losing their seats in Scotland, and just look at the candidates they were replaced with...
Pulpstar said:What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
Jo Swinson sent the pub very quiet and covering her was quite correct with the result.
Couldn't quite believe how close Carmichael was to going.0 -
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIREDTGOHF said:YG tonight ?
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Well saidJackW said:
I am saddened to hear you sound so bitter Marcus.Marcus01 said:Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
This "pointless political party" help to secure the nations future in 2010 and formed an integral part of one of the best post war governments the country has enjoyed.
A little grace might have been more appropriate Marcus. Sadly you couldn't manage it.0 -
As I was going to St Ives, I met a man with seven knives...AndyJS said:
Tories hold Warwick & Leamington with increased majority of 6,606:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001019
Just waiting now for St Ives.0 -
-Broxtowe was also very sweet after the weeks of insufferable boasts from the XXMP.-
I missed that! >:(0 -
Entering into a coalition with The Conservatives was the act of a principled, courageous man.Razedabode said:Clegg really is a class act. Thoguht he was a great leader and deserves a huge amount of respect
I truly hope history looks favourably upon Nick Clegg for the part he and his party played in the rebuilding of this country from the rubble of the last Labour government.0 -
They're usually returned without a vote. Won't happen, I expect Fabricant to lead the cry of No's and once that happens he'll probably need to stand down. Hoyle will be the favourite to take over and someone upthread suggested McVey to contest his seat. Almost too perfect.Blue_rog said:Has anyone discussed what will happen to Bercow? I can't see him being reinstalled as Speaker.
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Patrick Dave will not be standing again in 2020. Umunna does not need to win over white van man, he needs to win back the middle class suburbs, women and get a large lead in the growing ethnic vote. After all Joe the Plumber voted for McCain, but Obama still won.0
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There is one party that can be in league with the Conservatives, and that is the Conservatives.
Common theme with Scottish Labour and Lib Dems = Into bed with the Cons = kersplat.0 -
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I heard on Sky that he has FOUR of them!FrancisUrquhart said:
Can we take a moment of silence to remember the sacrifice that Ed's Lectern took over the course of this defeat. Dragged from back garden to back garden up and down the country.
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We have been here before and we know that nothing - not even Tory governments - lasts forever. With the LDs all but wiped out, Labour has an opportunity to build a united, centre-left vote in England and Wales. If Cameron can somehow save the Union, that may then be extended into Scotland - though I suspect SLab will now go its own way and, should it ever return MPs to Westminster in the future, will sit as a separate, though allied, party. Labour is at the start of a hard slog and begins with the disadvantage of having Neolithic trade union leaders to deal with, but there is a way back and at some stage it will be found.SeanT said:Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
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Tory get out the vote consisted of highlighting SNP would have Miliband's arm behind his back.Ishmael_X said:
GOTV was also going to win Indyref for Yes and R&S by election for the tories. Last refuge of the scoundrel.glw said:
So much for the amazing Labour GOTV operation that was going to win them the election.SeanT said:Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
To b honest the SNP played a blunder be cause they positioned themselves for all outcomes. If Ed had enough seats they could hold to account and Tory coalition / majority they could demand devolution n settlement to better represent the people.
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Well short odds bets don't always come up trumps....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Shapps may well be a rather obvious huckster, but credit is due to his targetting of resources. Unlike Labour they were in the right place at the right time.LadyBucket said:Went to bed at 5.30am and woke up at 10.30am and WOW!! The most positive thing to come out of this in my opinion, is that there has been a massive 'clearout' of all the 'old faces, especially on the Labour side. You can't renew a party with all the old baggage hanging around.
The biggest losers for me are the broadcasters and their mediocre presenters. Every time Kay Burley and Anna Botting (SKY) came on, I just turned the sound off, their faces said it all. I didn't watch much of BBC but I would hazard a guess it was just as dire.
I have just watched Grant Shapps being subjected to two very belligerent interviews by Dermot Murnaghan and Andrew Neil. They seemed more interested in his 'Wiki' problems than anything else.
Not sorry to see Vince Cable go, so much for 'demanding' the Lib Dems have at least 24 ministers!!!
Sorry to see Ed Balls go but better for the Labour party in the long run. One of the few 'characters' in parliament.
Best kept out of the front office, but very very good at selling tat!
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Yes, delicious, isn't it?Tissue_Price said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Balls (no, really!)
It's obvious he's held Ed's 'strategy' in utter contempt for the last 5 years and he's been vindicated in a highly unfortunate manner...0 -
That caught my eye too!Plato said:@AndreaParma_82 - what a FABULOUS name
Thangam Debbonaire
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By the way - nice to see you so devoted to commenting on Wings now. I knew that we couldn't keep you away from the evidence-based analysis there. (And, seriously, good to see more of a mix on any internet politics site.)HYUFD said:Dan565 Labour needs Old and New Labour to win, just as the Tories need Thatcherites and One Nation types under FPTP
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I wonder how the Lib Dems have done in the locals, rather better I expect actually.SouthamObserver said:
We have been here before and we know that nothing - not even Tory governments - lasts forever. With the LDs all but wiped out, Labour has an opportunity to build a united, centre-left vote in England and Wales. If Cameron can somehow save the Union, that may then be extended into Scotland - though I suspect SLab will now go its own way and, should it ever return MPs to Westminster in the future, will sit as a separate, though allied, party. Labour is at the start of a hard slog and begins with the disadvantage of having Neolithic trade union leaders to deal with, but there is a way back and at some stage it will be found.SeanT said:Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.0 -
And yet he ends up in charge of a weaker government.MarkHopkins said:0 -
Pleased to say that as poorly as I did predicting the overall result and the money I lost on that, I will end up very slightly ahead thanks to predicting UKIP would win less than 5 seats thank goodness.0
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Watford30 By 2020 Osborne has stated the finances should be fixed and most voters will be weary of austerity and willing to invest in public services again. The Tories are likely to have gone into a civil war regardless of the result of the 2017/18 EU referendum and a more rightwing leader will have succeeded Dave. After 10 years it is likely to be time for change if Labour have a moderate, presentable leader0
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God loves a trier. You've only just been owned and already you're wet-dreaming about how you're going to do over Dave.Speedy said:
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down.williamglenn said:
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?Speedy said:
John Major's term will look like a picknick.HYUFD said:Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.
ITYF Dave has done UKIP etc over. He has won from the middle after explicitly insulting the right. Abetted by UKIPpers he has ensured that there will never be traction for any Labour smear that UKIP = the Tories.0
