politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Many congratulations to those who called it right
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100,000 comment thread!
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A normal boundary review would knock the numbers of seats without a reduction in size of Parliament. Last numbers suggested a reduction to about 30.taffys said:Andyjs
Parts of GOwer are pretty upmarket. Conundrum now for Blues. Do they slash welsh seat numbers to equalize constituencies having done so well here?0 -
Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.0
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Ken Livingston BBC - this result for Labour shows we cannot return to New Labour.
Obelisk of stone not to laugh.0 -
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Some people argued that the coalition was more stable than a small majority last time, now we get to see!0
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And which aspects of Government would suffer due to additional reductions in funding?Fenster said:It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
(O/T - noticed that the bloggers in the Guardian are taking this defeat with their usual good grace - they never learn.)0 -
Which probably disguises a large fall, given the registration changes. Sky reported turnout of young voters was up, so which groups stayed at home? Perhaps that is where the election was decided.AndyJS said:Turnout up just 1 point from 2010 at 66%:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results0 -
So, without Blair as leader, Labour haven't won a GE since 1974.GIN1138 said:So David Cameron.
Since he became leader of the Tories, David Cameron seen off Charles Kennedy, Tony Blair, Ming Campbell, Gordon Brown, and now Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage.
And he has given the Tories their first majority government for 23 years.
Turns out, for all the abuse I and everyone else has given him over the years, he's actually a bloody leader isn't he?0 -
Depends what his legal advice was about having to be a MP or MSP to be leader. Ian Davidson ex-MP was not at all happy with Mr Murphy in an interview this am and I got the impression he for one would not let that happen. Of course nobody else might want to volunteer ...kjohnw said:
thats a landslide for the SNP next year thenScott_P said:@ewenmacaskill: Labour's defeated Scottish leader Jim Murphy not standing down. to stay on as leader and fight for seat in Scottish Parliament next year.
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I agree. I think the country needs a coherent left of centre opposition. I don't think the LibDems will be it. Labour may yet. But they need first to become coherent. Drop the union link. Admit past errors properly. Rethink who they are and who they are for. And push for a sensible as well as principled lefty opposition. For me the bottom line to 'sensible' is balanced budgets. Lefties can coherently argue for balance at high levels of tax and spend, while righties deliver balance at lower levels of tax and spend. Labour's undoing, in hindsight obvious from the GT audience's audible gasp when Red Ed denied ever overspending, was that they still resolutely believe in the magic money tree and simply don't see the need to balance budgets. They really do believe we can borrow forever. If they are honest with themselves in the inevtiable soul searching to come they will see that deficit denial must stop. Or they will never be able to build a coherent platform.edmundintokyo said:
Politics abhors a vacuum, and somebody needs to be the opposition to the Tories in the South of England. In theory there's an opening for Labour there with the right leader, but they still have a lot of residual brand damage, and it's not obvious who they can pick who could appeal. Meanwhile the Greens seem determined to be resolutely lefty and a lot of voters are allergic to UKIP.Patrick said:Are the LibDems now basically dead? 8 MPs and a pitiful share of the vote - where can they go from here? I assume the media will soon enough just stop talking about them. They have the same number of MPs as the DUP and look set to be as relevant! For so long they stood for nothing and everything. One hung parliament was all it took to expose that. They'll fade from our memories PDQ I suspect.
So they go back to councils, then hope for a good by-election...0 -
Another thank you. Well done to the Vanilla system for coping easily with 1k+ threads. It costs but I think the past 24 hours have shown its worth0
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Utterly agree.dyingswan said:Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
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Thanks again for the site OGH. Great place to be on election night.MikeSmithson said:Another thank you. Well done to the Vanilla system for coping easily with 1k+ threads. It costs but I think the past 24 hours have shown its worth
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@JoeWatts_: The 1st edition of today's Evening Standard #GE2015 http://t.co/IlZJtRiVCE0
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SF fell mainly because of losses to the People Before Profit Alliance in one constituency, which is definitely nationalist.TomFairfax said:fascinating to see combined nationalist / republican vote share in NI has fallen
SDLP is bleeding all over the statelet.0 -
Absolutely spot on.Fenster said:It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
Only Cameron could have won this victory and he must follow through on what he believes.
Everyone who has spent the last 5 years criticising him now looks ridiculous.0 -
Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea?Fenster said:It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither.
So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.0 -
Unlike 1992 they don't seem to have been shy to the exit poll. The problem seems to be how to measure how the voters will change their minds on the day.dyingswan said:Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
The best solution I can think of is to lie to them and tell them the election's today.0 -
Farage coming up, some time soon please?0
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Leaders vote shares:
Cameron 60%
Miliband 52%
Salmond 48%
Clegg 40%
Farage ?
Cameron a great tip from someone @ 5/2 - probably @antifrank
Edit - just found an even earlier bet at 7/1
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You'd have people running out desperately trying to find the polling place on a daily basisedmundintokyo said:
Unlike 1992 they don't seem to have been shy to the exit poll. The problem seems to be how to measure how the voters will change their minds on the day.dyingswan said:Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
The best solution I can think of is to lie to them and tell them the election's today. 0 -
Hope you can afford it with your losses! Do you need another donate button (even if i'm a bit skint now)MikeSmithson said:Another thank you. Well done to the Vanilla system for coping easily with 1k+ threads. It costs but I think the past 24 hours have shown its worth
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BBC 'expert' panel
Kate Hoey
John Reid
Bad Al
Dan Hannan
Fair and balanced at all times0 -
Why on earth are they still counting in The Cotswolds? It can't be close and a lost deposit query shouldn't hold up the process for 12 hours.0
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Thanks for being so magnanimous. This is 1992 redux for me (but probably not as bad - there were signs things weren't going to plan early this week - obvious signals were being obscured by the love-in with the opinion polls)saddened said:Very nice to see, with one obvious exception, that all the Labour supporters have stuck around and accepted the result with good grace. It's a reflection on their integrity.
And to be honest, the short term future is so poor for Labour. There is a dearth of talent within the Patliamentary Labour Party - Ed Milliband is arguably one of the more talented ones - that's the brutal truth and that's why I am pessimistic in the short term.
Tories - enjoy your win. It's a very long way back for Labour.0 -
Who are the non-SNP MPs?
Edited extra bit: in Scotland, I mean
Also, the emoticons have changed a bit.0 -
Didn't someone want a turnout map? Here's an interactive one - party strength too.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-326244050 -
From memory, the welfare budget is £111billion next year. Cameron should be very persuasive in saying that he is happy to spend that huge amount of money, provided it goes to the neediest first.weejonnie said:
And which aspects of Government would suffer due to additional reductions in funding?Fenster said:It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
(O/T - noticed that the bloggers in the Guardian are taking this defeat with their usual good grace - they never learn.)
IDS made some good headway with tackling benefits/work deprived; now the Tories need to win hearts and minds on it.
My Dad was getting interrogated by the DWP lot after having to leave work with Alzheimers at 56. We felt as though we had to prove he was ill (he's already in a care home, can't speak or walk). It was cruel. I'm pretty open-minded and understand that incidents like that (ATOS did some awful stuff apparently) stem from people abusing the system, but honestly, there is a cruel, shitty, depressing world out there which I wasn't aware of until my Dad's demise. It's inhabited by carers who are trapped, often without money or hope, and often too ashamed to ask for hand-outs - and these people need attention. Especially as we have an ageing population with dementia on the rise.
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Here we go. Thanet South.0
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There's a leap here, and to be fair it is the same leap that the shy Tory factor has always required. The leap is to explain why one would feel social pressure about public expression when responding to a poll.dyingswan said:Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
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I'm still shocked. After yesterday's polls I was preparing for a Labour minority government and Ed as PM. But today it's a Tory majority! Unbelievable0
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Christopher Hope @christopherhope 1 min1 minute ago
BREAKING Nigel Farage has failed to win in South Thanet by 1700 votes according to Ukip sources. #GE2015
Bye bye Nige0 -
Thanet South!!!0
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Con HOLD South Thanet0
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Here's Nigel...
... there goes Nigel.
Beaten by an Ex Kipper.0 -
Carmichael (O&S), Murray (S. Edin.) and Mundell (DCT).Morris_Dancer said:Who are the non-SNP MPs?
Edited extra bit: in Scotland, I mean
Also, the emoticons have changed a bit.
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My thoughts exactly, the 3 "mainstream parties" are likely to get squeezed in a pincer movement by the SNP, Greens and rather bizarrely UKIP. No doubt some of the SLAB and SLID losers will try and fight their way into Holyrood, sadly there will be no room for any of them, Jim Murphy will need someone to fall on their sword.Alistair said:
They can't make the same mistakes again.calum said:I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, lets hope the bookies open up the markets soon !!
Maybe they'll massively undershoot the Green figure?
One thing we do need for next year is a seat predictor which works at a regional level. The best calculator I've come across is:
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood
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Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...logical_song said:
Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea?Fenster said:It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither.
So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
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The thing that struck me most last night wasn't the defeats but the bitter wins. Clegg. Carswell.0
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Quality line up in Thanet South..0
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Nige gone0
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As a coalitionista, that's been my argument. But I think Cameron might have an easier time than Major did, even with a smaller majority. The death of Scottish Labour is key.isam said:Some people argued that the coalition was more stable than a small majority last time, now we get to see!
In 1992, Con had 336, Labour 271. This time, Conservatives are about 15 behind that, but Labour are over 40 behind.
The more Labour and SNP vote together, the more Scottish people will wonder what the point of SLab is.0 -
Mr. JS, and Mr. Carnyx, thanks.
Surprised the Conservative chap, if I've remembered the name right, held on.0 -
Oh what sheer bliss. Love it!!!0
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Farage out0
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Morning. Still feeling somewhat dazed here; occasional outbreaks of hysterical laughter and punching the air. Ave 'it called it at 330 very early last night when everyone else was still massively sceptical and deserves some sort of award for clairvoyancy. My ledger:
Good:
Tory majority
Vince Cable toast
Labour destroyed in Scotland; now the three main parties are in panda-land
Balls gone
Vince Cable toast
UKIP's abject failure
Paddy Ashdown's braised fedora
Vince Cable toast (did I mention that)
Harriet Harman having to suck it up on live TV
Galloway - almost forgot that gem!
Bad:
LD's hammered a little too hard, some excellent MPs punished for doing nothing wrong
My consituency (Brentford) going Labour by 500 votes
London in general0 -
Nigel lost !!!!0
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BOOOOOOOM that the UKIP implosion0
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YES! What an end to a spectacular night.0
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I was up for Farage too.0
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2,800 in fact.Slackbladder said:Christopher Hope @christopherhope 1 min1 minute ago
BREAKING Nigel Farage has failed to win in South Thanet by 1700 votes according to Ukip sources. #GE2015
Bye bye Nige0 -
Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio......0
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LOL
Al Murray closet Conservative0 -
QuaLOLity.0
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Labour NOWHERE in Thanet South.
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Having dozed off, just woke up for this. The perfect evening. Up for
Ed Balls
Chloe Smith
Vince Cable
and now Farage.
GE2015 - the gift that keeps on giving.0 -
... and that leaves a far more sane person as the head figure of UKIP ...0
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Little surprised Labour did so badly in South Thanet.
Edited extra bit: Thanet South*, sorry.
Edited extra bit 2: and at least I'm not making a winning speech getting the name wrong 0 -
The end of Farage... How the mighty have fallen...
He had a shocker of a campaign though.0 -
So Cameron has now seen off Salmond, Clegg, Miliband and Farage (+ Gordon Brown)0
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Isam is not very good at tips and Mike may have overstated ukip seat numbers a touch-1
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Ed, Clegg and Farage to be gone by lunchtime, probably.0
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Yes, Mr Mundell did, if only by his opposable pseudothumb:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. JS, and Mr. Carnyx, thanks.
Surprised the Conservative chap, if I've remembered the name right, held on.
http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/analogy_06
Edit: not sure what the definition of a marginal is, but there were only a couple of percentage points in his win ((40%/38%).0 -
The BBC have talked over the top of almost every acceptance speech.0
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Good for you for sticking up for your beliefs. I think it was a late late ( like walking to the polling booth) swing making it tough to pick up. I too only decided finally 200yds from the polling booth!murali_s said:
Thanks for being so magnanimous. This is 1992 redux for me (but probably not as bad - there were signs things weren't going to plan early this week - obvious signals were being obscured by the love-in with the opinion polls)saddened said:Very nice to see, with one obvious exception, that all the Labour supporters have stuck around and accepted the result with good grace. It's a reflection on their integrity.
And to be honest, the short term future is so poor for Labour. There is a dearth of talent within the Patliamentary Labour Party - Ed Milliband is arguably one of the more talented ones - that's the brutal truth and that's why I am pessimistic in the short term.
Tories - enjoy your win. It's a very long way back for Labour.0 -
Plaid have to be very disappointed at going backwards despite being given inflated status for the debates. To finish behind UKIP in number of votes is very poorTCPoliticalBetting said:
But Leanne said on the tv this morning that PC had a great campaign. WTF. Maths not a key skill in Wales?marke09 said:Final Welsh share
Labour 37% (-1)
Cons 27% (+1)
UKIP 14% (+12)
Plaid Cymru 12% (-1)
Lib Dems 7% (-13)
Others 3% (+2)
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They can't. Boundary Commissions will only report in 2018.GIN1138 said:
Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...logical_song said:
Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea?Fenster said:It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither.
So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.0 -
Been trying not to gloat too much, but can't help this one. MikeK, Farage, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha etc.0
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Paradoxically could this be better news for BOO, as Carswell is now the face of UKIP.0
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Also loads Scottish MPs, since they've massively out-registered everybody else.GIN1138 said:
Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...logical_song said:
Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea?Fenster said:It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither.
So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.0 -
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 4 mins4 minutes ago
So three party leaders now likely to resign in ONE DAY?!
Cameron Rampant.....0 -
So it's only Carswell then?0
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Thank you Mike,MikeSmithson said:Another thank you. Well done to the Vanilla system for coping easily with 1k+ threads. It costs but I think the past 24 hours have shown its worth
Really great site last night-I was with 3 friends who had never heard of the site-I can safely say you now have 3 more lurkers!
Also a BIG thank you to TSE
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Doesn't matter. SLab is irrelevant. At Westminster, they have no further to fall. As Francis Maude put it about his party in Scotland, "we had very little downside". That's now Labour.JosiasJessop said:
As a coalitionista, that's been my argument. But I think Cameron might have an easier time than Major did, even with a smaller majority. The death of Scottish Labour is key.isam said:Some people argued that the coalition was more stable than a small majority last time, now we get to see!
In 1992, Con had 336, Labour 271. This time, Conservatives are about 15 behind that, but Labour are over 40 behind.
The more Labour and SNP vote together, the more Scottish people will wonder what the point of SLab is.0 -
dyingswan
"There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless."
I don't think it's that at all. It's all the old fashioned paraphernalia that goes with it. The patriotism the harping back to empire and wrapping themselves in the flag that's uncool. The clue is in the name.
The problem is that people who like their financial acumen are embarrassed to be associated with their reactionary side. No need for Russell Brand to tell them that.0 -
Green deposit bet is a loser - I think they've saved 125 out of 561 or thereabouts so far = 22%0
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Carswell now looking prudent having spent all that time campaigning in Clacton0
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Lord Ashcroft seat polls are a bit of an embarrassment0
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Faisal Islam
Farage defeated in South Thanet ... Will he resign in ten minutes, as promised?0 -
Murray had a book to sell and did an extra show in Bristol on Wednesday. Time waster.0
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Oh dear
Farage
Byeeee..... love ya baby0 -
Farage losing is a shame in a way. I think he would have livened up the HoC. Burden now falls on Carswell alone. Assume he will now lead UKIP. What a night!0
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Can't they just instruct an immediate review of the boundaries like they did in 2010?MikeL said:
They can't. Boundary Commissions will only report in 2018.GIN1138 said:
Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...logical_song said:
Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea?Fenster said:It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither.
So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
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People's Army? Hmmm.... More like the Walmington-On-Sea Home Guard0
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Farage is a good speaker.0
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We had some proper loons!!!!TGOHF said:Quality line up in Thanet South..
Al Murray was probably the most sane 0 -
Survation buried accurate poll!
'Survation Telephone, Ballot Paper Prompt:
CON 37%
LAB 31%
LD 10
UKIP 11
GRE 5
Others (including the SNP) 6%
Which would have been very close to the final result.
We had flagged that we were conducting this poll to the Daily Mirror as something we might share as an interesting check on our online vs our telephone methodology, but the results seemed so “out of line” with all the polling conducted by ourselves and our peers – what poll commentators would term an “outlier” – that I “chickened out” of publishing the figures – something I’m sure I’ll always regret.'
http://survation.com/snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory/0 -
Which is probably good for BOO.Patrick said:Farage losing is a shame in a way. I think he would have livened up the HoC. Burden now falls on Carswell alone. Assume he will now lead UKIP. What a night!
But which is almost certainly bad for UKIP's chances of taking seats off Labour in the North of England.0 -
Farage whining about the electoral system.
He knew the rules, he just buggered up his performance.0
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