Bye Bye UK, and Bye Bye England in the EU. I wonder how former and current Liberal Democrat and Labour voters in England, of whom in combination there large numbers, are going to react to finding themselves in such a radically transformed environment over the next five years. Deeply unpredictable, and the Tories may find "Tory England" to be something of a frightening mirage.
Can't see Carswell connecting with people. Might be Nuttall, or that other guy.
Suzanne Evans.
Carswell will fail to win the UKIP leadership, flounce out to form the D Carswell Gladstonian ego me me me listen to me party and announce he has revolutionised British Politics
It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea? I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither. So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...
They can't. Boundary Commissions will only report in 2018.
Can't they just instruct an immediate review of the boundaries like they did in 2010?
Yes. It takes 3 years.
The original reports ordered in 2010 were due in 2013. They were abandoned halfway through in 2012.
They will now start a new review based on 2015 electorates. Reports due 2018.
Cameron's decision is whether to go for a new Act of Parliament to:
1) Keep 650 MPs - to avoid Con dissent
2) Allow PM to lay report directly to the Queen without further votes in 2018 - to eliminate risk of defeat in 2018. That remains a risk - remember under current law it has to go through the Lords as well.
It's likely that the Tories will have lost a by-election by 2018 - whether they lose enough to lose their majority is unlikely, because I think their current cohort of MPs is pretty young, but it's also a possible risk to a 2018 vote on boundaries.
There were 4 Con rebels on the last boundary vote - yes, unbelievably, 4 Con MPs voted to scrap the boundary review in 2012.
"Grant Walker @Grant_walker94 There are now more nuclear submarines in Scotland than there are pro-trident MP's."
Edit: PS Actually, twice as many IIRC, as Mr Murray is reportedly anti-Trident.
I love hubris, it makes the inevitable fall so much greater.
I was actually making a (fairly) objective comment of an issue which is now even more salient, but if you want to look at things that way, you could consider why anyone bothers to try to become PM etc.
45 seats for the SNP was my rough expectations for a good night for them!
I was making a serious point back, from here the Nats can only go down, especially when the novelty factor wears off, Then the cards are back up in the air in Scotland.
Oh, quite. Like being PM - one can only end up an ex-PM, but it doesn;t stop them trying. But in this case there is Holyrood 2016 and I haven't even begun to think through the implications for that. Yet another and very different psephological dynamic system to follow on from indyref and Ge2015.
"There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless."
I don't think it's that at all. It's all the old fashioned paraphernalia that goes with it. The patriotism the harping back to empire and wrapping themselves in the flag that's uncool. The clue is in the name.
The problem is that people who like their financial acumen are embarrassed to be associated with their reactionary side. No need for Russell Brand to tell them that.
I still remember the shock with which I was greeted by an acquaintance once, when I said something about voting Tory. "But.... but you seem so nice!" she gasped. She would probably pass out if I told her I voted Ukip this time.
Funnily enough, it is hard lefties who drone on about "tolerance" and "equality" and "evil Tories", etc who always strike me as being the most thuggish and boorish of the lot. But maybe that's just me.
No, I totally agree Lucy
Is it thuggish to disagree passionately with your political views?
Sorry for the election-night insomnia errors in that post there - there *are* large numbers, *are* going to react, and *the* next five years, that should say.
Incidentally, given that there are likely to be no non-Tory MPs to the west of Exeter can we assume that funding for a Dawlish Avoiding Line will be rapidly secured...?
Really interesting point some guy just made on BBC. He said if the polls had said the Cons have around a 6% lead we would have thought 'yes that feels about right. It's only because the pollsters kept telling us it was neck and neck that we didn't trust ourselves.'
Sometimes there really is a mood out there.
Yes - but the "experts" would still have been badly out on seats.
Remember - we were told Con needed to lead by 11% for a majority.
And it is this increased seats/votes efficiency that suggests Jim Messina's voter-targeting is what won it, and focussing on Ed vs Dave is lazy and misleading.
Funnily enough, it is hard lefties who drone on about "tolerance" and "equality" and "evil Tories", etc who always strike me as being the most thuggish and boorish of the lot. But maybe that's just me.
I have the same impression although it is worth noting that all parties - even UKIP - have some very nasty types in them.
Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
There's a leap here, and to be fair it is the same leap that the shy Tory factor has always required. The leap is to explain why one would feel social pressure about public expression when responding to a poll.
Because the effect is deeper than merely concealing their own views. People who don't obsess about politics genuinely try to convince themselves that they conform with 'correct' views. What changes on GE day is that their opinion suddenly has real consequences so the facade slips away.
But they don't mind telling the exit pollster?
I think there is a more general problem reaching normal busy working people who own their own home and who support the Tories by +11 points. Remember the yougov which showed 25% of people watched the debate but general public it was 5%.
Who on this site is part of a polling panel. I know I am and I am interested in politics as evidenced by being here.
Yeah, that could be it. Perhaps it is harder to sample now that newspapers are disappearing into digital aether. You would expect that past vote weighting at least would approach this.
Sorry for the election-night insomnia errors in that post there - there *are* large numbers, *are* going to react, and *the* next five years, that should say.
I think we're all running on adrenaline and coffee (and in the case of Lab/Lib-Dem, Valium) right now!
Morning all. And what a morning. My most profitable ever betting event - I haven't done the full tally yet, but it's going to be very satisfactory. Even better when the result is so good for the country as well. And we're going to have some interesting new betting markets opening up!
Key betting lessons: don't underestimate uncertainty, and try to cover the risk that you might have read things wrongly. In this particular election that was very easy to do, because the constituency markets and the seat total markets were inconsistent.
Take polls as guides, not as certainties engaved, Ed-like, on tablets of stone. Take notice of the mood music and what the parties are doing: there was a massive clue that the Tories thought they were close a majority when they started throwing the kitchen sink at LibDem-held seats over the last 10 days or so - a strategy which made no sense if they weren't close a majority.
Survation Telephone, Ballot Paper Prompt: CON 37% LAB 31% LD 10 UKIP 11 GRE 5 Others (including the SNP) 6%
Which would have been very close to the final result.We had flagged that we were conducting this poll to the Daily Mirror as something we might share as an interesting check on our online vs our telephone methodology, but the results seemed so “out of line” with all the polling conducted by ourselves and our peers – what poll commentators would term an “outlier” – that I “chickened out” of publishing the figures – something I’m sure I’ll always regret.
So in short, there will be no internal review of polling methodology for Survation post this General Election result.
This is very interesting I have not been the only one on here to mention our OGH's old adage best poll for Tories and worst for Labour.
It seems that regression to the mean and the dialogue around that was wrong because polling companies are commercial and if they have something out of line they might not publish.
"Grant Walker @Grant_walker94 There are now more nuclear submarines in Scotland than there are pro-trident MP's."
Edit: PS Actually, twice as many IIRC, as Mr Murray is reportedly anti-Trident.
I love hubris, it makes the inevitable fall so much greater.
I was actually making a (fairly) objective comment of an issue which is now even more salient, but if you want to look at things that way, you could consider why anyone bothers to try to become PM etc.
45 seats for the SNP was my rough expectations for a good night for them!
I was making a serious point back, from here the Nats can only go down, especially when the novelty factor wears off, Then the cards are back up in the air in Scotland.
Oh, quite. Like being PM - one can only end up an ex-PM, but it doesn;t stop them trying. But in this case there is Holyrood 2016 and I haven't even begun to think through the implications for that. Yet another and very different psephological dynamic system to follow on from indyref and Ge2015.
Looking from the outside once 2016 is done then the Nats have more of a problem since the opposition will be in recovery mode.
From my side I'd like to see Cameron put more support behind Ruth Davidson and start to call the Nats to account.
Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
There's a leap here, and to be fair it is the same leap that the shy Tory factor has always required. The leap is to explain why one would feel social pressure about public expression when responding to a poll.
Because the effect is deeper than merely concealing their own views. People who don't obsess about politics genuinely try to convince themselves that they conform with 'correct' views. What changes on GE day is that their opinion suddenly has real consequences so the facade slips away.
But they don't mind telling the exit pollster?
I think there is a more general problem reaching normal busy working people who own their own home and who support the Tories by +11 points. Remember the yougov which showed 25% of people watched the debate but general public it was 5%.
Who on this site is part of a polling panel. I know I am and I am interested in politics as evidenced by being here.
Yeah, that could be it. Perhaps it is harder to sample now that newspapers are disappearing into digital aether. You would expect that past vote weighting at least would approach this.
And who the heck answers a landline cold caller even if they have a landline?
It needs a massive rethink. I honestly think they would be better off with clipboards in the streets.
Isam is not very good at tips and Mike may have overstated ukip seat numbers a touch
A bad day at the GE but I still prob won more this week betting than you have in your life
I'm too modest to comment
Obviously not as I was replying to your provocation
Did you not say that farage would definitely win? I'm just stating facts. How many posts have you made telling us of all the fantastic odds that you have on ukip winning loads of different seats and how we are stupid for not backing them? I lose at gambling most of the time as we all do that's why I very rarely recommend anyone backing anything i do . I still haven't got over western warhorse.The 13.0 that I mentioned on here and backed in the middle of last night is a happy exception.
Can't see Carswell connecting with people. Might be Nuttall, or that other guy.
Suzanne Evans.
Carswell will fail to win the UKIP leadership, flounce out to form the D Carswell Gladstonian ego me me me listen to me party and announce he has revolutionised British Politics
I don't think Carswell is interested in being leader.
Is it thuggish to disagree passionately with your political views?
It depends entirely on how you disagree. Disagreement can be respectful as in Voltaire's "I disagree with what you say but I will defend your right to say it" or turning up at your opponent's rallies and shouting "Scum!".
"And on the pedestal, these words appear: 'My name is Ed Miliband, Labour Leader: Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!' Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away."
Very nice to see, with one obvious exception, that all the Labour supporters have stuck around and accepted the result with good grace. It's a reflection on their integrity.
Thanks for being so magnanimous. This is 1992 redux for me (but probably not as bad - there were signs things weren't going to plan early this week - obvious signals were being obscured by the love-in with the opinion polls)
And to be honest, the short term future is so poor for Labour. There is a dearth of talent within the Patliamentary Labour Party - Ed Milliband is arguably one of the more talented ones - that's the brutal truth and that's why I am pessimistic in the short term.
Tories - enjoy your win. It's a very long way back for Labour.
Good for you for sticking up for your beliefs. I think it was a late late ( like walking to the polling booth) swing making it tough to pick up. I too only decided finally 200yds from the polling booth!
I have to say it has long been my belief that you were not alone in the nature and timing of your decision.
There were absolutely bonkers prices available on Betfair on a Tory majority as late as 4-5am. I hope people managed to cash in. Can't believe that the BBC were sticking with their exit poll prediction for so long when it must have been obvious that a Tory majority was nailed on from Warwickshire North, Nuneaton and Vale of Clwyd onwards.Alas I wasn't up for Balls and just hope I managed to keep my eyes open at work this afternoon.
There have been some magic moments over the last 24 hours, but this is pretty special
@D_Blanchflower: Congrats to those who called it right I need to eat some humble pie with @JohnRentoul and @dojhodges & best to Tories on a stunning victory
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
"Grant Walker @Grant_walker94 There are now more nuclear submarines in Scotland than there are pro-trident MP's."
Edit: PS Actually, twice as many IIRC, as Mr Murray is reportedly anti-Trident.
I love hubris, it makes the inevitable fall so much greater.
I was actually making a (fairly) objective comment of an issue which is now even more salient, but if you want to look at things that way, you could consider why anyone bothers to try to become PM etc.
45 seats for the SNP was my rough expectations for a good night for them!
I was making a serious point back, from here the Nats can only go down, especially when the novelty factor wears off, Then the cards are back up in the air in Scotland.
I wasn't paying a lot of attention, but it did not look as if there were many marginal left in Scotland - apart from the one each held by Labour, the LDs and the Tories. It is very possible that if Scotland is still involved in 2020 the SNP could do the sweep.
There were absolutely bonkers prices available on Betfair on a Tory majority as late as 4-5am. I hope people managed to cash in. Can't believe that the BBC were sticking with their exit poll prediction for so long when it must have been obvious that a Tory majority was nailed on from Warwickshire North, Nuneaton and Vale of Clwyd onwards.Alas I wasn't up for Balls and just hope I managed to keep my eyes open at work this afternoon.
Yep I kept trying to tell people. It was still 7.5 when it was looking really odds-on.
Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
There's a leap here, and to be fair it is the same leap that the shy Tory factor has always required. The leap is to explain why one would feel social pressure about public expression when responding to a poll.
Because the effect is deeper than merely concealing their own views. People who don't obsess about politics genuinely try to convince themselves that they conform with 'correct' views. What changes on GE day is that their opinion suddenly has real consequences so the facade slips away.
But they don't mind telling the exit pollster?
I think there is a more general problem reaching normal busy working people who own their own home and who support the Tories by +11 points. Remember the yougov which showed 25% of people watched the debate but general public it was 5%.
Who on this site is part of a polling panel. I know I am and I am interested in politics as evidenced by being here.
Yeah, that could be it. Perhaps it is harder to sample now that newspapers are disappearing into digital aether. You would expect that past vote weighting at least would approach this.
And who the heck answers a landline cold caller even if they have a landline?
It needs a massive rethink. I honestly think they would be better off with clipboards in the streets.
Our least frequent pollster in Ireland does face-to-face interviews. They're also the most accurate.
"Grant Walker @Grant_walker94 There are now more nuclear submarines in Scotland than there are pro-trident MP's."
Edit: PS Actually, twice as many IIRC, as Mr Murray is reportedly anti-Trident.
I love hubris, it makes the inevitable fall so much greater.
I was actually making a (fairly) objective comment of an issue which is now even more salient, but if you want to look at things that way, you could consider why anyone bothers to try to become PM etc.
45 seats for the SNP was my rough expectations for a good night for them!
I was making a serious point back, from here the Nats can only go down, especially when the novelty factor wears off, Then the cards are back up in the air in Scotland.
Oh, quite. Like being PM - one can only end up an ex-PM, but it doesn;t stop them trying. But in this case there is Holyrood 2016 and I haven't even begun to think through the implications for that. Yet another and very different psephological dynamic system to follow on from indyref and Ge2015.
Looking from the outside once 2016 is done then the Nats have more of a problem since the opposition will be in recovery mode.
From my side I'd like to see Cameron put more support behind Ruth Davidson and start to call the Nats to account.
Miss Jones, there was a video of Kenny Everett[sp] making his 'let's bomb Russia' appearance posted here recently. Some chap I didn't recognise [a modern talking head] said he was 'so offended' that Everett 'came out' as a Tory, because he assumed Everett would be 'on your side'.
Unbelievably, ComRes is probably the only pollster to come out of this election with any credibility.
ICM Wisdom Index was Con 35%, Lab 32% so they will probably try to claim some credit.
ICM's reputation is going to take a big knock from the head of the company disparaging his own poll (the 39/33 poll at the start of the campaign) to try and give The Guardian some comfort and yesterday "Lab ahead poll".
Martin Boon may be another casualty of this election...
Among the top issues for the Tories are trying to get members and footsoldiers back, creating a mass membership party again, and also working out how to appeal to urban and poorer voters. Here in Birmingham it is almost totally a no-go area for the Tories, with the party only winning one (middle class) seat
Isam is not very good at tips and Mike may have overstated ukip seat numbers a touch
A bad day at the GE but I still prob won more this week betting than you have in your life
I'm too modest to comment
Obviously not as I was replying to your provocation
Did you not say that farage would definitely win? I'm just stating facts. How many posts have you made telling us of all the fantastic odds that you have on ukip winning loads of different seats and how we are stupid for not backing them? I lose at gambling most of the time as we all do that's why I very rarely recommend anyone backing anything i do . I still haven't got over western warhorse.The 13.0 that I mentioned on here and backed in the middle of last night is a happy exception.
I never said anyone was stupid for not backing them
If you are a serious gambler who turns over a lot of money every day, then beating the odds is more important than short term profit,. I beat the odds in this GE and did have some fantastic odds that tumbled, but ended up losing money . Id do the same again tmrw
As I said I have had a v good week gambling this week. Yesterday was a level day because of election losses
I did say Farage would definitely win, I thought he would. Thurrock too fair enough. Backing a 16/1 shot that goes off 8/11 and loses in a photo isn't worthy of being called a bad tip
There have been some magic moments over the last 24 hours, but this is pretty special
@D_Blanchflower: Congrats to those who called it right I need to eat some humble pie with @JohnRentoul and @dojhodges & best to Tories on a stunning victory
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
The SNP deserve their plaudits, but they deserve an extra-special congratulations for unseating Anas Sarwar. The handing of that seat from father, to son, to second-son like a personal possession was and is a disgrace. No other party, including labour, were capable of doing anything about it.
So well done the SNP from this southern tory.
And Glasgow NE is the result of the night. All but 40% swing in arguably the UK's safest seat.
@joeyjonessky: I find it hard to believe @nick_clegg will haunt the commons corridors for five whole years now like the ghost of coalition past...
bye-election?
Defection? Would decimate his party. Almost literally.
The LD rump does look hideously WASP right now. They need a new generation of ideologues/campaigners - A 2016 byelection with someone like Majiid Nawaaz as candidate would be great - and Hallam is the sort of unusual constituency where he could win over both the right & the left.
"Grant Walker @Grant_walker94 There are now more nuclear submarines in Scotland than there are pro-trident MP's."
Edit: PS Actually, twice as many IIRC, as Mr Murray is reportedly anti-Trident.
I love hubris, it makes the inevitable fall so much greater.
I was actually making a (fairly) objective comment of an issue which is now even more salient, but if you want to look at things that way, you could consider why anyone bothers to try to become PM etc.
45 seats for the SNP was my rough expectations for a good night for them!
I was making a serious point back, from here the Nats can only go down, especially when the novelty factor wears off, Then the cards are back up in the air in Scotland.
I wasn't paying a lot of attention, but it did not look as if there were many marginal left in Scotland - apart from the one each held by Labour, the LDs and the Tories. It is very possible that if Scotland is still involved in 2020 the SNP could do the sweep.
Nah.
The Nats honeymoon will be over. The economy will fk them as oil will be running out and maybe just maybe the Tories will start to ask question about why aren;t they winning NOTB. ( though that's probably bollox )
Unbelievably, ComRes is probably the only pollster to come out of this election with any credibility.
ICM Wisdom Index was Con 35%, Lab 32% so they will probably try to claim some credit.
ICM's reputation is going to take a big knock from the head of the company disparaging his own poll (the 39/33 poll at the start of the campaign) to try and give The Guardian some comfort and yesterday "Lab ahead poll".
Martin Boon may be another casualty of this election...
Interesting that JokeW's last forecast was widely out (302 Tories to 323-and-counting; Broxtowe; &c.). That said: The sentiment was correct (but Auntie Hortence may have over-medicated the 115 year-old fool).....
There have been some magic moments over the last 24 hours, but this is pretty special
@D_Blanchflower: Congrats to those who called it right I need to eat some humble pie with @JohnRentoul and @dojhodges & best to Tories on a stunning victory
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
"Grant Walker @Grant_walker94 There are now more nuclear submarines in Scotland than there are pro-trident MP's."
Edit: PS Actually, twice as many IIRC, as Mr Murray is reportedly anti-Trident.
I love hubris, it makes the inevitable fall so much greater.
I was actually making a (fairly) objective comment of an issue which is now even more salient, but if you want to look at things that way, you could consider why anyone bothers to try to become PM etc.
45 seats for the SNP was my rough expectations for a good night for them!
I was making a serious point back, from here the Nats can only go down, especially when the novelty factor wears off, Then the cards are back up in the air in Scotland.
I wasn't paying a lot of attention, but it did not look as if there were many marginal left in Scotland - apart from the one each held by Labour, the LDs and the Tories. It is very possible that if Scotland is still involved in 2020 the SNP could do the sweep.
Jo Swinson lost by only 3-4% plus BRS are 2 that spring to mind. But can't think of any Labour -SNP marginals that SNP are going to be defending next time. Mind you there was not many marginals on paper going into this election...
"Grant Walker @Grant_walker94 There are now more nuclear submarines in Scotland than there are pro-trident MP's."
Edit: PS Actually, twice as many IIRC, as Mr Murray is reportedly anti-Trident.
And there will be zero BAe-Systems shipyards by 2016. Just a guess....
That reminds me, what happened to all the Type 26 orders that were going to cascade in the moment Scotland voted No?
SDSR-2015: As any fule knows....
Eight 2087 cruisers and a similar number of Venators is an option. Work for all but....
It's as any fule kno, as indeed any fule kno ... but thanks. That would certainly be an excuse for slicing it into the rough. It didn't come up in the election campaign that I recall, which surprised me slightly when I thought about it this morning. There was some complaint about the poor defences of Scotland, but that highlighted Nimrod (or the lack thereof).
I did see that - but it's not an order ... hence my wording ... but thanks for checking.
What the heck do you Scot Nats expect? Cameron to go down there, slit his wrists and write an order in blood? £850 million for long-lead items is rather a massive statement of intent.
You should just chillax for a while and bask in the glory of your victory, rather than grousing about the UK as usual.
Isam is not very good at tips and Mike may have overstated ukip seat numbers a touch
A bad day at the GE but I still prob won more this week betting than you have in your life
I'm too modest to comment
Obviously not as I was replying to your provocation
Did you not say that farage would definitely win? I'm just stating facts. How many posts have you made telling us of all the fantastic odds that you have on ukip winning loads of different seats and how we are stupid for not backing them? I lose at gambling most of the time as we all do that's why I very rarely recommend anyone backing anything i do . I still haven't got over western warhorse.The 13.0 that I mentioned on here and backed in the middle of last night is a happy exception.
I never said anyone was stupid for not backing them
If you are a serious gambler who turns over a lot of money every day, then beating the odds is more important than short term profit,. I beat the odds in this GE and did have some fantastic odds that tumbled, but ended up losing money . Id do the same again tmrw
As I said I have had a v good week gambling this week. Yesterday was a level day because of election losses
I did say Farage would definitely win, I thought he would. Thurrock too fair enough. Backing a 16/1 shot that goes off 8/11 and loses in a photo isn't worthy of being called a bad tip
Sam as it stands I owe you £26 with UKIP at 12.6%. Will wait until count is over for final number; mail me to let me know how you want me to settle.
Comments
I came very, very close to going back in again.
Undoubtedly.
bye-election?
Eight 2087 cruisers and a similar number of Venators is an option. Work for all but....
Key betting lessons: don't underestimate uncertainty, and try to cover the risk that you might have read things wrongly. In this particular election that was very easy to do, because the constituency markets and the seat total markets were inconsistent.
Take polls as guides, not as certainties engaved, Ed-like, on tablets of stone. Take notice of the mood music and what the parties are doing: there was a massive clue that the Tories thought they were close a majority when they started throwing the kitchen sink at LibDem-held seats over the last 10 days or so - a strategy which made no sense if they weren't close a majority.
It seems that regression to the mean and the dialogue around that was wrong because polling companies are commercial and if they have something out of line they might not publish.
From my side I'd like to see Cameron put more support behind Ruth Davidson and start to call the Nats to account.
It needs a massive rethink. I honestly think they would be better off with clipboards in the streets.
That sums him up.
It was always obvious the Tories were going to lose, Cameron's heart just wasn't in it.
Oh, wait.
Boris?
'My name is Ed Miliband, Labour Leader:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away."
(With apologies to Shelley.)
@D_Blanchflower: Congrats to those who called it right I need to eat some humble pie with @JohnRentoul and @dojhodges & best to Tories on a stunning victory
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiYHPytLROg
Forecast Con 331, Lab 232.
Official Maj 12
16 exc SF
That relies on gaining the last 3 LD seats.
St Ives not certain?
what can I say it was the SNP wot won it for Cameron
I didn't have you boys doen in the Bullingdon club, I was wrong :-)
Vote Nicola get Dave.
@journodave: The SNP won 1,454,436 votes in the general election compared to the Yes campaign winning 1,617,989 during the #indyref
If you are a serious gambler who turns over a lot of money every day, then beating the odds is more important than short term profit,. I beat the odds in this GE and did have some fantastic odds that tumbled, but ended up losing money . Id do the same again tmrw
As I said I have had a v good week gambling this week. Yesterday was a level day because of election losses
I did say Farage would definitely win, I thought he would. Thurrock too fair enough. Backing a 16/1 shot that goes off 8/11 and loses in a photo isn't worthy of being called a bad tip
Oh yes just your usual spite.
So well done the SNP from this southern tory.
And Glasgow NE is the result of the night. All but 40% swing in arguably the UK's safest seat.
The Nats honeymoon will be over. The economy will fk them as oil will be running out and maybe just maybe the Tories will start to ask question about why aren;t they winning NOTB. ( though that's probably bollox )
:awaiting-payouts-for-the-greater-good:
Can't disagree with that!
Luton North
Luton South
Devon Central
The Cotswolds
Wells
They won despite - rather than because of - their computer system, I think...
new thread
Brilliant... please do.
Mind you there was not many marginals on paper going into this election...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/defence/11425477/BAE-gets-859m-boost-for-Navys-new-Type-26-frigates.html
From February.
Next. ;-)
Suzanne Evans interim leader.
Taking his first fortnight's holiday since 1993.
Not unlike a football team getting 3 penalties and failing to score.
PR is a horrendous import, exactly what Farage should be against.
Farage is resigning.
The voting out of bercow and his odious wife will be sight to see. Can they achieve it though?
You should just chillax for a while and bask in the glory of your victory, rather than grousing about the UK as usual.
Bet 365 particularly quick to settle, good mobile useability too.
I reckon I am up about £500, but to put it in perspective My ISA is up 4 times that on todays news.
Clegg very dignified resignation speech.