Farage losing is a shame in a way. I think he would have livened up the HoC. Burden now falls on Carswell alone. Assume he will now lead UKIP. What a night!
Why a shame. He tried to spilt the vote on the right and as most thought yesterday would let Milliband through the middle. That really would have been a shame.
It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea? I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither. So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...
Also loads Scottish MPs, since they've massively out-registered everybody else.
Since, at the moment, we are slightly over represented due to the sparsely populated Highland and islands seats I doubt it would make much difference. Wales on the other hand would lose several MPs
It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea? I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither. So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...
They can't. Boundary Commissions will only report in 2018.
Can't they just instruct an immediate review of the boundaries like they did in 2010?
Yes. It takes 3 years.
The original reports ordered in 2010 were due in 2013. They were abandoned halfway through in 2012.
They will now start a new review based on 2015 electorates. Reports due 2018.
Cameron's decision is whether to go for a new Act of Parliament to:
1) Keep 650 MPs - to avoid Con dissent
2) Allow PM to lay report directly to the Queen without further votes in 2018 - to eliminate risk of defeat in 2018. That remains a risk - remember under current law it has to go through the Lords as well.
I think that shows that there is a big divide in London between those who have (bought prior to 1997 say) and those that haven't (everyone else). Something will need to be done but hopefully that will be obvious...
Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
There's a leap here, and to be fair it is the same leap that the shy Tory factor has always required. The leap is to explain why one would feel social pressure about public expression when responding to a poll.
Because the effect is deeper than merely concealing their own views. People who don't obsess about politics genuinely try to convince themselves that they conform with 'correct' views. What changes on GE day is that their opinion suddenly has real consequences so the facade slips away.
Some of us have had to endure huge shit from the Kippers for our temerity to stand by our assessment of UKIP: 1 seat. Feel free to apologise in your own time, guys....
Survation Telephone, Ballot Paper Prompt: CON 37% LAB 31% LD 10 UKIP 11 GRE 5 Others (including the SNP) 6%
Which would have been very close to the final result.We had flagged that we were conducting this poll to the Daily Mirror as something we might share as an interesting check on our online vs our telephone methodology, but the results seemed so “out of line” with all the polling conducted by ourselves and our peers – what poll commentators would term an “outlier” – that I “chickened out” of publishing the figures – something I’m sure I’ll always regret.
So in short, there will be no internal review of polling methodology for Survation post this General Election result.
Some people argued that the coalition was more stable than a small majority last time, now we get to see!
As a coalitionista, that's been my argument. But I think Cameron might have an easier time than Major did, even with a smaller majority. The death of Scottish Labour is key. In 1992, Con had 336, Labour 271. This time, Conservatives are about 15 behind that, but Labour are over 40 behind.
The more Labour and SNP vote together, the more Scottish people will wonder what the point of SLab is.
Doesn't matter. SLab is irrelevant. At Westminster, they have no further to fall. As Francis Maude put it about his party in Scotland, "we had very little downside". That's now Labour.
We have to think about how the 'progressives' will vote down Conservative legislation. With Labour even further behind than in 1992, it may be harder for them to repeat of Major's woes.
Although I still think that it will be a tough few years for Cameron.
Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
There's a leap here, and to be fair it is the same leap that the shy Tory factor has always required. The leap is to explain why one would feel social pressure about public expression when responding to a poll.
Because the effect is deeper than merely concealing their own views. People who don't obsess about politics genuinely try to convince themselves that they conform with 'correct' views. What changes on GE day is that their opinion suddenly has real consequences so the facade slips away.
ok, going to sign off.. what a night! can't believe we actually won a majority!! Wish I had been in the UK, have felt somewhat detached from it this time around.
Thanks to Mike, the team and all PBers for a really fascinating night. My main bet was on Tory overall majority - but I'm only a minnow, so made about £150. I bow down in front of Antifrank for his prescience in Scotland! Well done sir!
Morley and Outwood just rounded off a wonderful night: Dorset is genuinely true blue for the first time I can remember. Bath means Chris Pattern is finally vindicated - a fitting tribute to 1992! Torbay means I don't have to move to the seat when my Grandmother lives, which I'd threatened to do if it didn't go Tory - so especial thanks to Mark for that!
Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
There's a leap here, and to be fair it is the same leap that the shy Tory factor has always required. The leap is to explain why one would feel social pressure about public expression when responding to a poll.
Because the effect is deeper than merely concealing their own views. People who don't obsess about politics genuinely try to convince themselves that they conform with 'correct' views. What changes on GE day is that their opinion suddenly has real consequences so the facade slips away.
But they don't mind telling the exit pollster?
I think there is a more general problem reaching normal busy working people who own their own home and who support the Tories by +11 points. Remember the yougov which showed 25% of people watched the debate but general public it was 5%.
Who on this site is part of a polling panel. I know I am and I am interested in politics as evidenced by being here.
Really interesting point some guy just made on BBC. He said if the polls had said the Cons have around a 6% lead we would have thought 'yes that feels about right. It's only because the pollsters kept telling us it was neck and neck that we didn't trust ourselves.'
"There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless."
I don't think it's that at all. It's all the old fashioned paraphernalia that goes with it. The patriotism the harping back to empire and wrapping themselves in the flag that's uncool. The clue is in the name.
The problem is that people who like their financial acumen are embarrassed to be associated with their reactionary side. No need for Russell Brand to tell them that.
I still remember the shock with which I was greeted by an acquaintance once, when I said something about voting Tory. "But.... but you seem so nice!" she gasped. She would probably pass out if I told her I voted Ukip this time.
Funnily enough, it is hard lefties who drone on about "tolerance" and "equality" and "evil Tories", etc who always strike me as being the most thuggish and boorish of the lot. But maybe that's just me.
Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
Unlike 1992 they don't seem to have been shy to the exit poll. The problem seems to be how to measure how the voters will change their minds on the day.
The best solution I can think of is to lie to them and tell them the election's today.
You'd have people running out desperately trying to find the polling place on a daily basis
For the most accurate possible results the pollster would send them a fake polling card directing them to them to a pollster-run polling station.
"There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless."
I don't think it's that at all. It's all the old fashioned paraphernalia that goes with it. The patriotism the harping back to empire and wrapping themselves in the flag that's uncool. The clue is in the name.
The problem is that people who like their financial acumen are embarrassed to be associated with their reactionary side. No need for Russell Brand to tell them that.
I still remember the shock with which I was greeted by an acquaintance once, when I said something about voting Tory. "But.... but you seem so nice!" she gasped. She would probably pass out if I told her I voted Ukip this time.
Funnily enough, it is hard lefties who drone on about "tolerance" and "equality" and "evil Tories", etc who always strike me as being the most thuggish and boorish of the lot. But maybe that's just me.
Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
There's a leap here, and to be fair it is the same leap that the shy Tory factor has always required. The leap is to explain why one would feel social pressure about public expression when responding to a poll.
Because the effect is deeper than merely concealing their own views. People who don't obsess about politics genuinely try to convince themselves that they conform with 'correct' views. What changes on GE day is that their opinion suddenly has real consequences so the facade slips away.
But they don't mind telling the exit pollster?
The more obvious explanation of shy Tories is lousy sampling by the polling companies.
Funnily enough, it is hard lefties who drone on about "tolerance" and "equality" and "evil Tories", etc who always strike me as being the most thuggish and boorish of the lot. But maybe that's just me.
I have the same impression although it is worth noting that all parties - even UKIP - have some very nasty types in them.
"Grant Walker @Grant_walker94 There are now more nuclear submarines in Scotland than there are pro-trident MP's."
Edit: PS Actually, twice as many IIRC, as Mr Murray is reportedly anti-Trident.
I love hubris, it makes the inevitable fall so much greater.
I was actually making a (fairly) objective comment of an issue which is now even more salient, but if you want to look at things that way, you could consider why anyone bothers to try to become PM etc.
45 seats for the SNP was my rough expectations for a good night for them!
@BBCJonSopel: Have worked it out. Last night's election was directed by Tarantino. How else do you explain the level of blood, gore and carnage? #GE2015
Really interesting point some guy just made on BBC. He said if the polls had said the Cons have around a 6% lead we would have thought 'yes that feels about right. It's only because the pollsters kept telling us it was neck and neck that we didn't trust ourselves.'
What a crazy night. The exit poll shocked me. I could not believe that the tories would get anywhere near 316 seats and now they have just passed 323. Even the exit poll understated things.
The map in England is mostly blue. I looked out the window to reflect on things and noted even the sky was blue today.
Really interesting point some guy just made on BBC. He said if the polls had said the Cons have around a 6% lead we would have thought 'yes that feels about right. It's only because the pollsters kept telling us it was neck and neck that we didn't trust ourselves.'
Sometimes there really is a mood out there.
Yes - but the "experts" would still have been badly out on seats.
Remember - we were told Con needed to lead by 11% for a majority.
It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea? I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither. So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...
They can't. Boundary Commissions will only report in 2018.
Can't they just instruct an immediate review of the boundaries like they did in 2010?
Yes. It takes 3 years.
The original reports ordered in 2010 were due in 2013. They were abandoned halfway through in 2012.
They will now start a new review based on 2015 electorates. Reports due 2018.
Cameron's decision is whether to go for a new Act of Parliament to:
1) Keep 650 MPs - to avoid Con dissent
2) Allow PM to lay report directly to the Queen without further votes in 2018 - to eliminate risk of defeat in 2018. That remains a risk - remember under current law it has to go through the Lords as well.
It's likely that the Tories will have lost a by-election by 2018 - whether they lose enough to lose their majority is unlikely, because I think their current cohort of MPs is pretty young, but it's also a possible risk to a 2018 vote on boundaries.
Miliband has to resign, so that Labour can choose someone who can take the party forward. They need to make some real changes as to how they organise themselves. They have to reconnect with their grassroots around the country and this means winning council seats. The Tories will always be able to raise huge sums of money near elections and in government they are not going to change party funding rules. So Labour has to build a strong membership and that will only happen if they appeal to more people.
I don't think Miliband did enough as leader to get the party ready for the election. The Tories have been gearing up for the election for about the last 2 years.
Really interesting point some guy just made on BBC. He said if the polls had said the Cons have around a 6% lead we would have thought 'yes that feels about right. It's only because the pollsters kept telling us it was neck and neck that we didn't trust ourselves.'
Sometimes there really is a mood out there.
So listen to the anecdotes chaps ! :-)
Where's tim ?
No it's about listening to people on here who have canvassed the pavements this time and previously. They're not always right but quite a lot of people on here said it didn't feel neck and neck. I bet their sampling is 100x more accurate than the online polling nonsense.
In terms of legislation, the one I hope that does not happen is the selling off of the social housing. A lot of it will end up as buy to let, and with the best will in the world it will take time to replace. Hopefully, this will not be a priority - just build more houses, no need to sell stuff off.
Most important of all, though, is what happens with Scotland and how Cameron deals with the wounds that have been opened over the last year. A big offer is absolutely necessary, but my sense is that the SNP will reject it on the grounds that Westminster is seeking to stitch Scotland up.
"Grant Walker @Grant_walker94 There are now more nuclear submarines in Scotland than there are pro-trident MP's."
Edit: PS Actually, twice as many IIRC, as Mr Murray is reportedly anti-Trident.
I love hubris, it makes the inevitable fall so much greater.
I was actually making a (fairly) objective comment of an issue which is now even more salient, but if you want to look at things that way, you could consider why anyone bothers to try to become PM etc.
45 seats for the SNP was my rough expectations for a good night for them!
I was making a serious point back, from here the Nats can only go down, especially when the novelty factor wears off, Then the cards are back up in the air in Scotland.
Unbelievably, ComRes is probably the only pollster to come out of this election with any credibility.
ICM Wisdom Index was Con 35%, Lab 32% so they will probably try to claim some credit.
ICM's reputation is going to take a big knock from the head of the company disparaging his own poll (the 39/33 poll at the start of the campaign) to try and give The Guardian some comfort and yesterday "Lab ahead poll".
Martin Boon may be another casualty of this election...
Well, well the pollster were wrong; and not the first time. They did get the SNP right though, so the methodology isn't completely hopeless, but need to work on why the same demographic interests are consistently over estimated.
Most interesting thing for so far (for me) is the LD to UKIP swings in so many diverse constituencies. There is no progressive majority. Kippers are not tories on holiday. These things are just comfort blankets for supporters of the main two parties when they're losing.
Comments
The original reports ordered in 2010 were due in 2013. They were abandoned halfway through in 2012.
They will now start a new review based on 2015 electorates. Reports due 2018.
Cameron's decision is whether to go for a new Act of Parliament to:
1) Keep 650 MPs - to avoid Con dissent
2) Allow PM to lay report directly to the Queen without further votes in 2018 - to eliminate risk of defeat in 2018. That remains a risk - remember under current law it has to go through the Lords as well.
"Grant Walker
@Grant_walker94 There are now more nuclear submarines in Scotland than there are pro-trident MP's."
Edit: PS Actually, twice as many IIRC, as Mr Murray is reportedly anti-Trident.
Yes, Ed, it was entirely your fault.
You and your giant phallic stone, and your racist mugs.
I can't imagine why the Daily Mirror wouldn't have wanted to publish that last minute Survation poll.
I wonder how much it contributed to some of the betting patterns yesterday.
Survation Telephone, Ballot Paper Prompt:
CON 37%
LAB 31%
LD 10
UKIP 11
GRE 5
Others (including the SNP) 6%
Which would have been very close to the final result.We had flagged that we were conducting this poll to the Daily Mirror as something we might share as an interesting check on our online vs our telephone methodology, but the results seemed so “out of line” with all the polling conducted by ourselves and our peers – what poll commentators would term an “outlier” – that I “chickened out” of publishing the figures – something I’m sure I’ll always regret.
So in short, there will be no internal review of polling methodology for Survation post this General Election result.
Clegg and Milliband to resign
Lmao, what a tool
Although I still think that it will be a tough few years for Cameron.
As a side note, can I just say:
EICINPM
3 to go.
"Responsibility for the results is mine and mine alone"
I posted a couple of times that the experiance on the ground did NOT relate at all to what we w ere seeing on the doorstep.
IIRC a number of other posters doubted my comment !!
Morley and Outwood just rounded off a wonderful night: Dorset is genuinely true blue for the first time I can remember. Bath means Chris Pattern is finally vindicated - a fitting tribute to 1992! Torbay means I don't have to move to the seat when my Grandmother lives, which I'd threatened to do if it didn't go Tory - so especial thanks to Mark for that!
Who on this site is part of a polling panel. I know I am and I am interested in politics as evidenced by being here.
There are no Lib Dems left.
Sometimes there really is a mood out there.
Funnily enough, it is hard lefties who drone on about "tolerance" and "equality" and "evil Tories", etc who always strike me as being the most thuggish and boorish of the lot. But maybe that's just me.
Edit-just seen the lib dems comment... Better by far
http://news.sky.com/election/results#lists-undeclared
I paraphrase...
"What are you going to do now"
"Don't care LOLOL"
No it wasn't - it was 316.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11591320/Why-did-Labour-lose-this-election-It-never-tried-to-win-it.html
Fair enough given the abuse he's received I think?
45 seats for the SNP was my rough expectations for a good night for them!
I prefer this result to 315 Tory + 20 LD.
Where's tim ?
The map in England is mostly blue. I looked out the window to reflect on things and noted even the sky was blue today.
Remember - we were told Con needed to lead by 11% for a majority.
Lamb/Farron need support of 10% of LD MPs to run for leader. As they each constitute 12.5% of LD MPs, they'll both clear this hurdle #GE2015
Ouch.
I don't think Miliband did enough as leader to get the party ready for the election. The Tories have been gearing up for the election for about the last 2 years.
Most important of all, though, is what happens with Scotland and how Cameron deals with the wounds that have been opened over the last year. A big offer is absolutely necessary, but my sense is that the SNP will reject it on the grounds that Westminster is seeking to stitch Scotland up.
1983 - Longest political suicide note in history.
2015 - Largest political headstone in history.
08/05/2015 10:30
"Fuck it" - Ed Miliband pic.twitter.com/5ThnI0seNi
Martin Boon may be another casualty of this election...
Most interesting thing for so far (for me) is the LD to UKIP swings in so many diverse constituencies. There is no progressive majority. Kippers are not tories on holiday. These things are just comfort blankets for supporters of the main two parties when they're losing.