politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Many congratulations to those who called it right
Comments
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Still waiting on Bedford, Warwick & Leamington, Crewe & Nantwich. All needed by CON, failing another stunner or three,0
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Boris secretary of state for scotland!0
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Con GAIN Derby North0
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You think "within MoE" is a legitimate thing to say about an average of a large number of polls?logical_song said:
From memory the BBC poll of polls was showing something like:Purseybear said:
Please no.felix said:We need some new Opinion pollsters - pronto!!!
We need a total re-write of polling methods and the BPC need an urgent independent enquiry. Make no mistake, this is an unmitigated polling cock up.
Tory 34, Lab 33, UKIP 13. LD 8 and the actual looks like
Tory 36, Lab 31, UKIP 13, LD 8
which is within MoE.
It's FPTP which makes the seats results such a lottery.
And yet you understand Ther Science on AGW better than all the rest of us. Well done.
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In what way did the left divide? If you added up SNP + Labour you wouldn't have any extra impact.Jonathan said:The left divide, the Tories win. We learnt that in the 80s. Shame we have to learn that lesson the hard way all over again.
ScotRef and the Coalition. Two more potent means to divide the left it is impossible to imagine.
The failure was that labour didn't work in middle england...at all.0 -
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So I guess we'll never get 'an NHS with time to care'.0
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Results so far: - Tory 310 – LAB 227 – SNP 56 – LD 8 – UKIP 1 - GRN 10
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That's MoE but at the end all the polls were showing basically the same thing. That can't all be MoE - either they were systemically wrong, or the voters moved the goalposts after the last interviews or both.logical_song said:
From memory the BBC poll of polls was showing something like:Purseybear said:
Please no.felix said:We need some new Opinion pollsters - pronto!!!
We need a total re-write of polling methods and the BPC need an urgent independent enquiry. Make no mistake, this is an unmitigated polling cock up.
Tory 34, Lab 33, UKIP 13. LD 8 and the actual looks like
Tory 36, Lab 31, UKIP 13, LD 8
which is within MoE.
It's FPTP which makes the seats results such a lottery.
What is true is that any single given pollster (except YouGov because they polled so much) may have been MoE - for example, ICM was mainly showing something closer to the result, except that very last poll, so maybe they just got unlucky despite a basically sound methodology.0 -
CON GAIN DERBY N from Labour0
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I think this is more like 1955 than 1992.not_on_fire said:So 2015 is the new 1992. Cameron's challenge is to make sure 2020 is not the new 1997. With a big split on Europe coming up, things look difficult
1992 was all about the Tories just about hanging on, but people forget they lost a LOT of seat's that they won in the 83 and 87 landslides.
This election is about the Conservative not just hanging on, but entrenching and in many cases improving their position while Labour has fallen back further.
That's more like 1955, IMO.
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Morning all. Cannot quite believe this result for us. I really thought Labour and Ed M would squeak it.
Will take some time to process how exactly we managed to get a majority (or close to it)
Has anyone been doing a results spreadsheet?
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Warwick and Leamington surely Tory hold given other Warwickshire results, and swing in nearby Cov SProdicus said:Still waiting on Bedford, Warwick & Leamington, Crewe & Nantwich. All needed by CON, failing another stunner or three,
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Con GAIN Derby North!0
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The SNP is very clearly panicked by the Tory victory. They are in danger of becoming the Aunt Sallies of Scottish politics.SouthamObserver said:
The SNP got exactly the result it wanted in both Scotland and the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
How have we lost? We're up in MPs and have an overall majority. Take your head out of your arse and stop inspecting the Scottish navel - your MPs aren't relevant. Your "progressive alliance" lost.Dair said:
Scotland won. 56 out of 59 MPs. Tories lost, Labour lost, Lib Dems need to be removed from being a "Major Party". UKIP need to be removed from being a "Major Party". Greens did on. SNP won the election.felix said:
That's the response of a bitter loser - just like Labour speakers. It's much easier for them to do that than consider what they did wrong.Dair said:
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.DavidL said:Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
There has been a significant change off circumstances.0 -
So the Ed Stone was more of a Tombstone.0
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Hammond will stay. In any case, there are a lot of spaces to fill in the government now that the Lib Dems aren't in it.DavidL said:Hammond back to his proper role of Chief Secretary or is that too big a demotion now?
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Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 4 mins4 minutes ago
There are 3 polar bears in Scotland, I'm told, at Highland Wildlife Park - so that's one each for Lab, LD and Tory MPs #ge2015 #bearfacts0 -
The Labour MP there was not my cup of tea, to put it mildly.TheScreamingEagles said:Con GAIN Derby North
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When its not David Cameron's fault for stirring up the Nats.....Dair said:
Hasnt stopped the Labouristas pretending its all Scotland's fault.TheScreamingEagles said:If Labour had held onto every one of their 41 Scottish seats, they still would have lost this election, and there'd still be a Tory maj/close to a Tory maj.
Astonishing.0 -
Or Red Pandas, as I have said before.Slackbladder said:Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 4 mins4 minutes ago
There are 3 polar bears in Scotland, I'm told, at Highland Wildlife Park - so that's one each for Lab, LD and Tory MPs #ge2015 #bearfacts
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Ed Miliband and Ed Balls = Varro and Paullus
Dave = Hannibal0 -
How are there seats in the middle of England that havent declared at 9am while all of Northern Ireland and the Western Isles have declared and WI was one of the earliest declarations and Orkney and Zetland with like 150 islands with people declared at 4am?0
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Derby North, my constituency. Did not see that coming...0
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Quite outstanding news.AndyJS said:
The Labour MP there was not my cup of tea, to put it mildly.TheScreamingEagles said:Con GAIN Derby North
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WOW!KentRising said:Con GAIN Derby North!
I have the impression that the Tories have won more of the narrow ones than they've lost.0 -
What shite! The right is divided. Imagine the truly crushing result that we would have had without UKIP. The left in England is only Labour really. They are not divided. They are simply incoherent.Jonathan said:The left divide, the Tories win. We learnt that in the 80s. Shame we have to learn that lesson the hard way all over again.
ScotRef and the Coalition. Two more potent means to divide the left it is impossible to imagine.0 -
Chris Williamson defeated in Derby North by 41 votes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140006620 -
Con HOLD Congleton 311 vs 2270
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Cheap councils not paying to have them counted on the night. Sickening.Dair said:How are there seats in the middle of England that havent declared at 9am while all of Northern Ireland and the Western Isles havent declared and WI was one of the earliest declarations and Orkney and Zetland with like 150 islands with people declared at 4am?
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Its an ill wind My boss last night at 5pm wanted to put a bet on aTory win. So opened an account for him at W Hill (he doesn't use computers!)- put £100 at 12-1 on seats 326-350.0
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Its an utter delight.KentRising said:Nicky Campbell can barely conceal his horror and bitterness at the result this morning on 5 Live.
LD leadership campaign - will it just be first 2 places for each way betting ?
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It does, and I think it's to be welcomed. But denying the Tories' victory is simply silly, and accusing them of winning of the back of demonising the SNP is absurdly hyppocritical considering your party has been doing the reverse ever since its creation.Dair said:
It gives the SNP a Significant change of circumstances.Philip_Thompson said:
How have we lost? We're up in MPs and have an overall majority. Take your head out of your arse and stop inspecting the Scottish navel - your MPs aren't relevant. Your "progressive alliance" lost.Dair said:
Scotland won. 56 out of 59 MPs. Tories lost, Labour lost, Lib Dems need to be removed from being a "Major Party". UKIP need to be removed from being a "Major Party". Greens did on. SNP won the election.felix said:
That's the response of a bitter loser - just like Labour speakers. It's much easier for them to do that than consider what they did wrong.Dair said:
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.DavidL said:Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
There has been a significant change off circumstances.
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Did any of Labour's 2010 retreads win?0
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Mr. Eagles, quite.
Got to say, when I made that list of emperors for Cameron based on success/failure, I only included a majority emperor for the sake of completeness.
Cameron on course to be Trajan.
Ed Miliband is either Honorius or Valerian [or possibly one of the Angeli].0 -
Grasping for the easy answer is to be expected at this early stage I guess. It will be interesting to see if that changes.Dair said:
Hasnt stopped the Labouristas pretending its all Scotland's fault.TheScreamingEagles said:If Labour had held onto every one of their 41 Scottish seats, they still would have lost this election, and there'd still be a Tory maj/close to a Tory maj.
Astonishing.0 -
I can't see Dave moving Philip Hammond.
Simple truth is, he's an Outer.
If Dave puts into the FCO someone less Eurosceptic before the in/out referendum the Eurosceptics well you know, act stupid.0 -
you have that the wrong way round, its 0.95^8 for it to not happen.not_on_fire said:
But a result at the extreme of the MOE should only have a 5% chance of occurring. Given every polling company predicted a similar result, the odds are miniscule (0.05)^8logical_song said:
From memory the BBC poll of polls was showing something like:Purseybear said:
Please no.felix said:We need some new Opinion pollsters - pronto!!!
We need a total re-write of polling methods and the BPC need an urgent independent enquiry. Make no mistake, this is an unmitigated polling cock up.
Tory 34, Lab 33, UKIP 13. LD 8 and the actual looks like
Tory 36, Lab 31, UKIP 13, LD 8
which is within MoE.
It's FPTP which makes the seats results such a lottery.
edit: sorry misunderstood what you were saying.0 -
Spare a moment for all of the TV graphic designers who have spent months dreaming up ever more exotic ways of showing rainbow coalitions in the HoC.
All wasted...0 -
I used to work with her at Goldman in the late 90sSlackbladder said:Louise Cooper @Louiseaileen70 10 mins10 minutes ago
Centrica up 7%, SSE +5%, Lloyds +7% BARC +5% RBS +5.5%
7 retweets 0 favorites
Tories generating more wealth already
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Surely it's one of the sensible "efficiency savings" that councils are being told they must do?RobD said:
Cheap councils not paying to have them counted on the night. Sickening.Dair said:How are there seats in the middle of England that havent declared at 9am while all of Northern Ireland and the Western Isles havent declared and WI was one of the earliest declarations and Orkney and Zetland with like 150 islands with people declared at 4am?
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No tweets for 17 hours......Slackbladder said:
Pray for tim....Plato said:That must taste very sweet.
Scrapheap_as_was said:
We can now confirm George o is genius, as his two 'superior' rivals in 2010. Are both ex mos now, Vince and balls.DavidL said:Balls losing probably makes Yvette a much stronger candidate for the leadership. In fact it probably makes her favourite.
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There was quite sophisticated distribution of vote in England between the LDs and Labour in England that maximised seats. The coalition destroyed that.Slackbladder said:
In what way did the left divide? If you added up SNP + Labour you wouldn't have any extra impact.Jonathan said:The left divide, the Tories win. We learnt that in the 80s. Shame we have to learn that lesson the hard way all over again.
ScotRef and the Coalition. Two more potent means to divide the left it is impossible to imagine.
The failure was that labour didn't work in middle england...at all.
ScotRef pushed Labour into Better Together, campaign side by side with the SNP. Creating the SNP question that Labour simply could not answer. This had implications in England and Scotland. I would say losing key members of the shadow cabinet as a loss of impact.
So we have to start all over again.
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Eh, I'd rather work for the party, than stand for electionPlato said:I was asked twice yesterday to stand for the local council - I can't think of a fate worse than this bar death
RobD said:I think I've realised today how much more passionate I am about politics than my actual job. Perhaps I should change careers
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Not heard from IOS either. Wonder if he can fill us in on how the ground game is going....CarlottaVance said:
No tweets for 17 hours......Slackbladder said:
Pray for tim....Plato said:That must taste very sweet.
Scrapheap_as_was said:
We can now confirm George o is genius, as his two 'superior' rivals in 2010. Are both ex mos now, Vince and balls.DavidL said:Balls losing probably makes Yvette a much stronger candidate for the leadership. In fact it probably makes her favourite.
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@Greg_Callus: Next LibDem leader must be nominated by 10% MPs. That's now a single MP: Clegg, Farron, Pugh, Mulholland, Williams, Lamb, Carmichael, Brake0
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He gave us so much false hope.RobD said:
Not heard from IOS either. Wonder if he can fill us in on how the ground game is going....CarlottaVance said:
No tweets for 17 hours......Slackbladder said:
Pray for tim....Plato said:That must taste very sweet.
Scrapheap_as_was said:
We can now confirm George o is genius, as his two 'superior' rivals in 2010. Are both ex mos now, Vince and balls.DavidL said:Balls losing probably makes Yvette a much stronger candidate for the leadership. In fact it probably makes her favourite.
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Labour activists seemed to spend about 4:1 of their time castigating the traitor Lib Dems compared to the Tories. So they got their wish, and the Tories won all those Lib Dem seats. Well done Labour, you earned it.Jonathan said:
There was quite sophisticated distribution of vote in England between the LDs and Labour in England that maximised seats. The coalition destroyed that.Slackbladder said:
In what way did the left divide? If you added up SNP + Labour you wouldn't have any extra impact.Jonathan said:The left divide, the Tories win. We learnt that in the 80s. Shame we have to learn that lesson the hard way all over again.
ScotRef and the Coalition. Two more potent means to divide the left it is impossible to imagine.
The failure was that labour didn't work in middle england...at all.
ScotRef pushed Labour into Better Together, campaign side by side with the SNP. Creating the SNP question that Labour simply could not answer. This had implications in England and Scotland. I would say losing key members of the shadow cabinet as a loss of impact.
So we have to start all over again.0 -
I always thought the Ed Stone was a Headstone pun anyway...Slackbladder said:So the Ed Stone was more of a Tombstone.
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The difference in cost between counting on the night and the day after is probably minimal.not_on_fire said:
Surely it's one of the sensible "efficiency savings" that councils are being told they must do?RobD said:
Cheap councils not paying to have them counted on the night. Sickening.Dair said:How are there seats in the middle of England that havent declared at 9am while all of Northern Ireland and the Western Isles havent declared and WI was one of the earliest declarations and Orkney and Zetland with like 150 islands with people declared at 4am?
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Well hopefully Cameron will have lost his appetite for warmongering if we don't want a Suez equivalent.GIN1138 said:
I think this is more like 1955 than 1992.not_on_fire said:So 2015 is the new 1992. Cameron's challenge is to make sure 2020 is not the new 1997. With a big split on Europe coming up, things look difficult
1992 was all about the Tories just about hanging on, but people forget they lost a LOT of seat's that they won in the 83 and 87 landslides.
This election is about the Conservative not just hanging on, but entrenching and in many cases improving their position while Labour has fallen back further.
That's more like 1955, IMO.
On the other hand the economy is in far worse relative shape than it was in the 1950s.
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Cameron off to the Palace at 12.30, for those who have an interest in such things.0
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SorryFreggles said:
He gave us so much false hope.RobD said:
Not heard from IOS either. Wonder if he can fill us in on how the ground game is going....CarlottaVance said:
No tweets for 17 hours......Slackbladder said:
Pray for tim....Plato said:That must taste very sweet.
Scrapheap_as_was said:
We can now confirm George o is genius, as his two 'superior' rivals in 2010. Are both ex mos now, Vince and balls.DavidL said:Balls losing probably makes Yvette a much stronger candidate for the leadership. In fact it probably makes her favourite.
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BBC TV saying 'we await Keighley' when it's been on the BBC website for at least an hour! Shambles.0
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Ah, now I understand. LOLScott_P said:@Greg_Callus: Next LibDem leader must be nominated by 10% MPs. That's now a single MP: Clegg, Farron, Pugh, Mulholland, Williams, Lamb, Carmichael, Brake
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Joan Ryan in Enfield, I thinkMarqueeMark said:Did any of Labour's 2010 retreads win?
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From now on can we call a Portillo moment an Ed Balls moment?0
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I just heard the 9am news report, which contained the words "Ed Balls has lost his seat"
I am not sure that will ever get old0 -
This result has increased the power of the Tory backwoodsmen quite dramatically. Cameron won't know what has hit him.TheScreamingEagles said:I can't see Dave moving Philip Hammond.
Simple truth is, he's an Outer.
If Dave puts into the FCO someone less Eurosceptic before the in/out referendum the Eurosceptics well you know, act stupid.0 -
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 2 mins2 minutes ago
Ok let's now get on immediately with constituency boundary changes and reducing MPs from 650 to 600.
Damn straight.0 -
how many seats left for Labour? Just the 2 Lutons, Wansbeck and Blyth Valley?0
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Swing to the Tories in Stoke South:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140009740 -
No, he's right. The odds of none of them producing a rogue are 0.95^8. The odds on all of them doing so are 0.05^8.Alistair said:
you have that the wrong way round, its 0.95^8 for it to not happen.not_on_fire said:
But a result at the extreme of the MOE should only have a 5% chance of occurring. Given every polling company predicted a similar result, the odds are miniscule (0.05)^8logical_song said:
From memory the BBC poll of polls was showing something like:Purseybear said:
Please no.felix said:We need some new Opinion pollsters - pronto!!!
We need a total re-write of polling methods and the BPC need an urgent independent enquiry. Make no mistake, this is an unmitigated polling cock up.
Tory 34, Lab 33, UKIP 13. LD 8 and the actual looks like
Tory 36, Lab 31, UKIP 13, LD 8
which is within MoE.
It's FPTP which makes the seats results such a lottery.
edit: sorry misunderstood what you were saying.
Edit - missed your edit.0 -
Con +21
3 more potential gains from LD
If no other gains or losses that means:
Con 331 (inc Speaker).
Official Maj 12
Maj (exc SF) 16
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I'm off for a nap.0
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Cambridge :
Huppert went from 19621 vote to 18047
Labour went from 12829 to 18646
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Also Dawn Butler and Rob Marris.TheScreamingEagles said:
Joan Ryan in Enfield, I thinkMarqueeMark said:Did any of Labour's 2010 retreads win?
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I'll be intrigued to hear what Portillo thinks about this result. I suspect he, like other Tories, would have preferred the Tories to be short of a majority and relying upon the Lib Dems as before.Life_ina_market_town said:
This result has increased the power of the Tory backwoodsmen quite dramatically. Cameron won't know what has hit him.TheScreamingEagles said:I can't see Dave moving Philip Hammond.
Simple truth is, he's an Outer.
If Dave puts into the FCO someone less Eurosceptic before the in/out referendum the Eurosceptics well you know, act stupid.
I'm happy that the Tories look like winning a majority. No more excuses.0 -
It is! Right?Patrick said:
I always thought the Ed Stone was a Headstone pun anyway...Slackbladder said:So the Ed Stone was more of a Tombstone.
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Now Sky says there are no Tories in Scotland!!
Are they competing for some sort of award?0 -
Whichever way you look at it, 12.5% and one seat (maybe two), is a shocking way to run politics.0
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Where's IOS?
@MrHarryCole: No doubt the Tories won the air war and 12 hours ago Labour were still saying their ground war would save them. Guess they lost that too.0 -
Sp that ICM poll, Con 39%/Lab 33% that everyone, including the head of ICM thought was "wrong" looks like it was more or less on the money?0
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Your problem is that Labour is now fully associated with magic money tree spending.SouthamObserver said:
That pretty much sums it up - though I suspect a centre left party shorn of Unite would attract a fair few hefty donations from sources that currently keep their wallets shut.Scott_P said:@paulmasonnews: Whole Labour inner circle knows problem: if New Lab stage coup Unite leaves and you get an English Syriza, possibly with more money than Lab
It wont gain extra votes until it loses that association and if it loses that association it will lose the votes who want magic money tree spending.
Of course the Conservatives also believe in magic money tree spending but they're not associated with it - so Conservative magic money tree spending is called 'austerity' or 'sound economic management' etc.
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Gavin Hewitt @BBCGavinHewitt 6 mins6 minutes ago
Bad night for pollsters - already some saying there will have to be complete re-examination of methods used#ge20150 -
Hmmm - he needs to go back to opinionpoll grammar school first!Slackbladder said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 2 mins2 minutes ago
Ok let's now get on immediately with constituency boundary changes and reducing MPs from 650 to 600.
Damn straight.0 -
Serves them right for demonising anybody who expresses their real view if its different from theirs. I think one big learning emerging from this GE is the whole 'shy Tory / shy Kipper' thing. The 'middle ground' of public discourse is pushed to the left by the BBC, bien-pensant types. It is not actually the middle at all. The pollsters failed to spot this. Maybe they should read PB!TheKitchenCabinet said:
Labour middle-class activists thinking nice WWC people would never lie to them about voting Labour when they were actually supporting UKIPedmundintokyo said:
Wait for some more detail on what happened (especially exit poll detail). It may have just been a swing on the day - you only need 3% of all voters to switch to turn Con 33.5 - Lab 33.5 into Con 36.5 - Lab 30.5.another_richard said:
That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.FrancisUrquhart said:Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
Anecdotally, we've had Nick Palmer here reporting people who'd said they'd support Lab changing their minds, and Jack Straw was saying something similar on Sky earlier.0 -
I can see Balls recovering a la Portillo but Clegg is stuffed unless he ditches the victimhood.0
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Although it will seriously discourage defections.Life_ina_market_town said:
This result has increased the power of the Tory backwoodsmen quite dramatically. Cameron won't know what has hit him.TheScreamingEagles said:I can't see Dave moving Philip Hammond.
Simple truth is, he's an Outer.
If Dave puts into the FCO someone less Eurosceptic before the in/out referendum the Eurosceptics well you know, act stupid.0 -
Are you seriously saying that the polls can ever get the result of a general election correct to with a fraction of a percent? I was pointing out that they weren't wildly out and that it was the FPTP system which resulted in an unexpectedly large win for the Tories, do you dispute that?Ishmael_X said:
You think "within MoE" is a legitimate thing to say about an average of a large number of polls?logical_song said:
From memory the BBC poll of polls was showing something like:Purseybear said:
Please no.felix said:We need some new Opinion pollsters - pronto!!!
We need a total re-write of polling methods and the BPC need an urgent independent enquiry. Make no mistake, this is an unmitigated polling cock up.
Tory 34, Lab 33, UKIP 13. LD 8 and the actual looks like
Tory 36, Lab 31, UKIP 13, LD 8
which is within MoE.
It's FPTP which makes the seats results such a lottery.
And yet you understand Ther Science on AGW better than all the rest of us. Well done.
On AGW you and "the rest of us" are in a minority. I go with the majority of the scientists.0 -
W&L will be a hold with a significantly increased majority.Prodicus said:Still waiting on Bedford, Warwick & Leamington, Crewe & Nantwich. All needed by CON, failing another stunner or three,
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Commiserations to Nick Palmer.
But I'm glad that Balls has gone, and absolutely delighted that the Gallowanker is toast.
I don't envy Cameron his job, though.0 -
I must tune in!TGOHF said:
Its an utter delight.KentRising said:Nicky Campbell can barely conceal his horror and bitterness at the result this morning on 5 Live.
LD leadership campaign - will it just be first 2 places for each way betting ?0 -
'An NHS with profits to share'Luckyguy1983 said:So I guess we'll never get 'an NHS with time to care'.
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Another Ashcroft constituency prediction?Slackbladder said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 2 mins2 minutes ago
Ok let's now get on immediately with constituency boundary changes and reducing MPs from 650 to 600.
Damn straight.0 -
Had a flick through the Tory manifesto to see what we're getting. Previously of course it was all subject to coalition negotiations.
Trade union right to vote severely curtailed is worrying.0 -
No its not. In other words an average of 87.5% did not want a UKIP candidate to represent them across the country.TOPPING said:Whichever way you look at it, 12.5% and one seat (maybe two), is a shocking way to run politics.
Each constituency got its choice.0 -
Carswell must be feeling sick today.0
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I bet Antony Calvert is wondering what might have been.david_herdson said:
Much as I would like to claim some credit, I did very little campaigning in Morley & Outwood and spent the great majority of my time in Wakefield. I doubt it had a significant impact but the spirited if short campaign we fought may have diluted some of Labour's manpower in M&O. It has certainly kept Wakefield in the game for the next election, particularly as it should now be fought under the revised boundaries in 2020.TheScreamingEagles said:David Herdson was campaigning in Morley and Outwood.
David Herdson = PBer of the year
Having won POTY once, I'd decline any further nominations but I would point out that in my piece last week I did point out that there was a much greater chance than was commonly being assumed of both a disastrous Lib Dem performance and an excellent Tory one (for balance, I also said that there was a chance of a very good Labour one too, though I don't regret that given that the basic proposition that the polls were unreliable was right).
Do you know Philip Allott of Halifax ? Four winnable constituencies and four disappointments now.
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No contrition from Lord Ashcroft about the utter disaster his polls (especially his marginal polls) have been?Slackbladder said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 2 mins2 minutes ago
Ok let's now get on immediately with constituency boundary changes and reducing MPs from 650 to 600.
Damn straight.0 -
I can't help but think Miliband and Balls refusal to acknowledge the mess they made of the economy has come back to haunt them.another_richard said:
Your problem is that Labour is now fully associated with magic money tree spending.SouthamObserver said:
That pretty much sums it up - though I suspect a centre left party shorn of Unite would attract a fair few hefty donations from sources that currently keep their wallets shut.Scott_P said:@paulmasonnews: Whole Labour inner circle knows problem: if New Lab stage coup Unite leaves and you get an English Syriza, possibly with more money than Lab
It wont gain extra votes until it loses that association and if it loses that association it will lose the votes who want magic money tree spending.
Of course the Conservatives also believe in magic money tree spending but they're not associated with it - so Conservative magic money tree spending is called 'austerity' or 'sound economic management' etc.
How will Labour excorcise this ghost. Continued denial just leaves the issue hanging there.0 -
Does the Salisbury convention still apply to minority governments?0
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Priti for Chief Secretary?david_herdson said:
Hammond will stay. In any case, there are a lot of spaces to fill in the government now that the Lib Dems aren't in it.DavidL said:Hammond back to his proper role of Chief Secretary or is that too big a demotion now?
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Can I be the first to throw my weight behind ToriesforBurnham ?0
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Maybe, but I'm not too upset as a Kipper. Some Tories are gloating, and I don't blame them to a certain extent given they were told that the Tories couldn't win. But Ukip aren't about to go away. Cameron will be expected to be a Conservative PM, and if he doesn't live up to expectations, the voters will reject him at the next election.TOPPING said:Whichever way you look at it, 12.5% and one seat (maybe two), is a shocking way to run politics.
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