politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Many congratulations to those who called it right
Comments
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Glad confident morning, Mr McCluskey?0
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I hope they run it on the next May BH
SquareRoot said:When BBC parliament re-runs this election, it will be the one to watch.
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Milibands finished so I expect he has bigger concerns right now...SimonStClare said:Ed Ball’s defeat must come as a bit of a bombshell to Labour HQ – What will Miliband do now without his long term buddy by his side?
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Balls going will be a good thing for Labour in the long term. They need all of those Brown-Blair generation out, and new to rediscover themselves.EPG said:
Good news for Labour, in a way, and they need it. I think they will be as shaken as the Lib Dems.Grandiose said:So that's no Shadow Foreign Secretary, no Shadow Chancellor and soon, surely, no Leader.
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Gordon Brown, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Wee Dougie... there's a message there somewhere.0
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Labour gain Lancaster0
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Think the NI Tories stood everywhere in NI this time.EPG said:
They tried the pact, Northern Irish people were repelled by it, they ditched the pact, they won two seats. So, yeah, no.businesspiggy said:Will the UUP sit on government benches? Electoral pact with Conservatives.
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Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.0 -
@DavidGauke: Now that @edballsmp is out, will Labour finally accept that they spent too much before the crash?0
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Okay, so maybe it wasn't done right. But I stand by my view of her and her ilk.weejonnie said:
We would rue the day when a politician can sack a public worker on a whim without due process. Sorry - but I totally disagree.tlg86 said:Amusing to see Ed Balls lose his seat. But I will always give him credit for sacking on the spot the despicable Sharon Shoesmith over the Baby P case. Now I know she got a big pay out in the end, but that was not his fault, and he actually did the right thing, even though our disgraceful legal system protects scum like Shoesmith.
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Well said Roger. And well done for sticking around and putting up with us gloating!Roger said:Congratulations to all those who did well commiserations to all those who did badly. I think the public usually get it right and realistically Ed wasn't really up to it. Nonetheless the personal always trumps everything else so particular commiserations to Nick Palmer a great contributer to this site to this site.
From a personal point of view the only result I really cared about was Edinburgh South which by the most extraordinary piece of good fortune Ian Murray managed to win.
Finally congratulations to Jack antifrank and Pulpstar for excelling at what the site's designed to do and to Mike and Eagle for making the contest so interesting0 -
I agree with Robinson, despite how much I am loving his defeat. I'm reminded of the clip of Balls being Santa Claus for the Parliament xmas bash.0
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1992 - forced Labour to regroup.
1997, 2002, 2007 they had a clever leader who was prepared to adapt and reinvent his party.
The Tories may have won today but Labour and Lib Dems have to decide how they are going to respond.
Cameron has to find a way of co-existing with the SNP.0 -
Con hold Morecambe
Key hold.0 -
Steve Coogan, Eddie Izzard, Martin Freeman, Russel Brand, Ed Milliband, can you hear me? Your boys took one hell of a beating.0
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12 more would give Con plus unionists majority.
22 for Majority Tory rule0 -
Huge rises in FTSE and even more in FTSE250.0
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Hammond back to his proper role of Chief Secretary or is that too big a demotion now?0
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Con hold Chatham and Morecambe & Lunsdale - need 22 to win.0
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Balls has just flatlined..0
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Con hold Morecambe0
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0
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Okay. I'm 3 hours ahead of UK time - sleep now at 11:30 (not slept yet) or wait up and see what happens to Farage?
(maybe with more champagne?)0 -
Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.0
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Made it into work..god knows what I'll be like this afternoon though.
Ahhh what a wonderful day0 -
326 is a majority in theory - but there will be attrition, as there always is. The problem for Cameron is that there is no party of significant numbers who can (or probably would) go with him. He also has major headaches in the Economy, the West Lothian Question, Scottish nationalism and the European Referendum.FrankBooth said:Feeling down but Cameron will be exposed without the Lib Dem cover.
The UK is probably much weaker now than it was 24 hours ago.0 -
Cameron is a tactical genius.0
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Hell NO!Scott_P said:@DavidGauke: Now that @edballsmp is out, will Labour finally accept that they spent too much before the crash?
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I hope all of you got on Morely and Outwood a couple of weeks ago!0
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I've recorded both BBC and Sky and no doubt which I will be replaying!SquareRoot said:When BBC parliament re-runs this election, it will be the one to watch.
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AndyJ will have it on YouTube by next week! 0
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@PickardJE: Shares in Centrica up by about 7 per cent on news of Labour defeat.0
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Roger - where did it all go wrong ? You've lost the Rogerdamus touch !!!!Roger said:Congratulations to all those who did well commiserations to all those who did badly. I think the public usually get it right and realistically Ed wasn't really up to it. Nonetheless the personal always trumps everything else so particular commiserations to Nick Palmer a great contributer to this site.
From a personal point of view the only result I really cared about was Edinburgh South which by the most extraordinary piece of good fortune Ian Murray managed to win.
Finally congratulations to Jack antifrank and Pulpstar for excelling at what the site's designed to do and to Mike and Eagle for making the contest so interesting
I heard your relly on the radio this a.m. came across well, but very strange to think he IS the Scottish Labour party in Westminster.0 -
We can now confirm George o is genius, as his two 'superior' rivals in 2010. Are both ex mos now, Vince and balls.DavidL said:Balls losing probably makes Yvette a much stronger candidate for the leadership. In fact it probably makes her favourite.
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Is the balls result on youtube yet.
Will their be a LD downfall spoof.0 -
Con hold Bedfordshire SW 304 vs 2210
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Liked the headline: "The Day The Polls Turned".0
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FPTP has swung back to favour the Tories, that is for sure; but Labour was never a credible alternative government and EdM was an abysmal leader. How does that change next time when the people who put Ed in charge carry so much weight?DecrepitJohnL said:
I'm not sure I share this view but leaving that to one side, the Conservatives are up half a percentage point in votes and have swept to victory. This was won by Jim Messina and the voter-targetting boffins imo.SouthamObserver said:
I'm afraid that the unions are a massive millstone round Labour's neck. They are backward looking and unwilling to challenge comfortable beliefs forged many decades ago. Labour needs to start again, but can't because of the unions.Monksfield said:
Yes indeed Southam, and I don't think they can do it. The Euro referendum has all the hallmarks of the event that will kill the Union. In my heart of hearts this result isn't a surprise although the scale goes beyond what I expected. The complete lack of enthusiasm did scream 1992, and the voters have gone for the devil they know.SouthamObserver said:Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.
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A lot of senior Tory thickos need to apologise to David Cameron PM.0
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BBC call a Conservative majority with 329 seats. So I think I make that a 6 seat majority or is it 8 seat?0
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I went to bed at 6am and missed Ed Balls. What a crazy, crazy night.
Cable and Balls - I can't believe it.0 -
Who is the SLAB MP left to be Scottish leader?0
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Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.DavidL said:Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./0 -
What interests me about opinion polls is that they were not mirroring my Tory stats. I was looking at tens of thousands of returns. I have bored you all with that the figures I had which said that Labour would only get 1% swing. So, I wonder why pollsters don't try to work with parties to discuss their stas.
Labour were also telling me the same thing; no swing to Labour essentially. And they were spilling the beans on postal votes, which they were saying showed no swing, in fact a swing agasint Labour.
Yet the pollsters weren't picking this up.
I was miserable all day yesterday because I started to believe the polls. I should have stuck with my door knocking stats.
Any lessons for pollsters?0 -
@JamesTapsfield: Tory sources say this result was so far towards the top end of their expectations they hadn't even prepared a line to take0
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Looks like my Tory minority bet loses, but UKIP less than 5 is coming good.0
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what will unite do is the big question for labour. Can they carry the public whilst being in hock to the unions?SouthamObserver said:
FPTP has swung back to favour the Tories, that is for sure; but Labour was never a credible alternative government and EdM was an abysmal leader. How does that change next time when the people who put Ed in charge carry so much weight?DecrepitJohnL said:
I'm not sure I share this view but leaving that to one side, the Conservatives are up half a percentage point in votes and have swept to victory. This was won by Jim Messina and the voter-targetting boffins imo.SouthamObserver said:
I'm afraid that the unions are a massive millstone round Labour's neck. They are backward looking and unwilling to challenge comfortable beliefs forged many decades ago. Labour needs to start again, but can't because of the unions.Monksfield said:
Yes indeed Southam, and I don't think they can do it. The Euro referendum has all the hallmarks of the event that will kill the Union. In my heart of hearts this result isn't a surprise although the scale goes beyond what I expected. The complete lack of enthusiasm did scream 1992, and the voters have gone for the devil they know.SouthamObserver said:Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.0 -
329 is a majority of 12, excluding SF.0
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Will we get a budget in the next few weeks? Or is fuel duty not going up until December?0
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@bbclaurak: Sounds like Miliband will make a speech, resignation, some time late morning- lunch once he is back in London, will return to Party HQ first0
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That's the response of a bitter loser - just like Labour speakers. It's much easier for them to do that than consider what they did wrong.Dair said:
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.DavidL said:Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./0 -
Must have missed Galloway declaration on TV. Would have enjoyed watching that....lose.0
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So, pollsters.... what the hell happened?0
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IIRC Kent seats are largely counting this morning - is that right?0
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Why aren't we getting anything on vote share?0
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Morning all - am just catching up with an excellent set of threads as was at our local count holding up (almost literally) our local MP who had late attack of jitters.
Well done to rcs1000 (trust you have not been disinherited from the Smithson fortune), IOS, JamesM, Jack W, Aveit and Roger for their forecasts. The rest of you are consigned to sympathise with Balls and Cable.
The regional splits of %age votes for each party will be interesting and may give leads to this result.0 -
Are you a member of the Labour party?SouthamObserver said:
FPTP has swung back to favour the Tories, that is for sure; but Labour was never a credible alternative government and EdM was an abysmal leader. How does that change next time when the people who put Ed in charge carry so much weight?DecrepitJohnL said:
I'm not sure I share this view but leaving that to one side, the Conservatives are up half a percentage point in votes and have swept to victory. This was won by Jim Messina and the voter-targetting boffins imo.SouthamObserver said:
I'm afraid that the unions are a massive millstone round Labour's neck. They are backward looking and unwilling to challenge comfortable beliefs forged many decades ago. Labour needs to start again, but can't because of the unions.Monksfield said:
Yes indeed Southam, and I don't think they can do it. The Euro referendum has all the hallmarks of the event that will kill the Union. In my heart of hearts this result isn't a surprise although the scale goes beyond what I expected. The complete lack of enthusiasm did scream 1992, and the voters have gone for the devil they know.SouthamObserver said:Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.
If you're not, then join, the Labour party needs the likes of you in it.0 -
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C 37 L 30 approx acc to SkyFrankBooth said:Why aren't we getting anything on vote share?
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Officially 8Purseybear said:BBC call a Conservative majority with 329 seats. So I think I make that a 6 seat majority or is it 8 seat?
12 exc SF0 -
So far....FrankBooth said:Why aren't we getting anything on vote share?
CON 36.5
LAB 30.7
UKIP 12.5
LD 7.8
SNP 5.0
GRN 3.8
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329 from Curtice
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EICIPM?felix said:
C 37 L 30 approx acc to SkyFrankBooth said:Why aren't we getting anything on vote share?
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Sky News has the vote shares scrolling every 30 secsFrankBooth said:
Why aren't we getting anything on vote share?
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Would SO be welcome in the current labour party, or what the labour party might become?TheScreamingEagles said:
Are you a member of the Labour party?SouthamObserver said:
FPTP has swung back to favour the Tories, that is for sure; but Labour was never a credible alternative government and EdM was an abysmal leader. How does that change next time when the people who put Ed in charge carry so much weight?DecrepitJohnL said:
I'm not sure I share this view but leaving that to one side, the Conservatives are up half a percentage point in votes and have swept to victory. This was won by Jim Messina and the voter-targetting boffins imo.SouthamObserver said:
I'm afraid that the unions are a massive millstone round Labour's neck. They are backward looking and unwilling to challenge comfortable beliefs forged many decades ago. Labour needs to start again, but can't because of the unions.Monksfield said:
Yes indeed Southam, and I don't think they can do it. The Euro referendum has all the hallmarks of the event that will kill the Union. In my heart of hearts this result isn't a surprise although the scale goes beyond what I expected. The complete lack of enthusiasm did scream 1992, and the voters have gone for the devil they know.SouthamObserver said:Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.
If you're not, then join, the Labour party needs the likes of you in it.0 -
We need some new Opinion pollsters - pronto!!!0
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Glad to hear Galloway lost.0
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If Farage doesn't make it and it is just Carswell for UKIP, isn't that just a defacto Tory in operating majority?0
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That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.FrancisUrquhart said:Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
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If they can get rid of Bercow, get a Labour MP elected as Speaker - and then hold the Buckingham by-election - that will help (in so many ways)MikeL said:
Officially 8Purseybear said:BBC call a Conservative majority with 329 seats. So I think I make that a 6 seat majority or is it 8 seat?
12 exc SF0 -
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Fairly obvious - The pollsters had picked up that Cameron was the preferred prime minister by 52% to 31%. That was presumably the fact that stopped tory leakage in the marginals. Where he wasn't liked (North East Mainly) Labour did pretty well. (And without that exit poll there would have been a lot of people with much shorter fingernails this morning.)Slackbladder said:So, pollsters.... what the hell happened?
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Wow. Just wow.
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Scotland won. 56 out of 59 MPs. Tories lost, Labour lost, Lib Dems need to be removed from being a "Major Party". UKIP need to be removed from being a "Major Party". Greens did on. SNP won the election.felix said:
That's the response of a bitter loser - just like Labour speakers. It's much easier for them to do that than consider what they did wrong.Dair said:
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.DavidL said:Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
There has been a significant change off circumstances.0 -
The Labour campaign really, really missed Mandelson. He was the only one Labour had in Osborne's class as a political organiser and Ed would not speak to him. Big mistake. Big, big mistake.Scrapheap_as_was said:
We can now confirm George o is genius, as his two 'superior' rivals in 2010. Are both ex mos now, Vince and balls.DavidL said:Balls losing probably makes Yvette a much stronger candidate for the leadership. In fact it probably makes her favourite.
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Swing to Labour = Con majority
I warned you, OGH, not to take UNS too literally...0 -
Yep. Follow you around as you are knocking doors!Dixie said:
Any lessons for pollsters?
The polls did not move during the campaign. But the voters WERE moving. Several of us were telling people. We were poo-pooed as hearing what we wanted to hear.
NO WE FUCKING WEREN'T! There was a huge resource here that was totally ignored in favour of the polls. The polls that we told you were broken.
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Not really, just Thanet dragging its heels.Plato said:IIRC Kent seats are largely counting this morning - is that right?
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Is this *worse* than 1992? It feels like it.another_richard said:
That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.FrancisUrquhart said:Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.0 -
Dair said:
Scotland won. 56 out of 59 MPs. Tories lost, Labour lost, Lib Dems need to be removed from being a "Major Party". UKIP need to be removed from being a "Major Party". Greens did on. SNP won the election.felix said:
That's the response of a bitter loser - just like Labour speakers. It's much easier for them to do that than consider what they did wrong.Dair said:
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.DavidL said:Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
There has been a significant change off circumstances.
Tories held their seat in Scotland and nearly got 2 - the suurrrgggeee is on....
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Dair The Tories will be forming the government not the SNP, and they held their seat in Scotland, so it was a good night for the SNP but in no way did the Tories lose0
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Individual voter registration was my main reasoning for backing Tory majority, Wish I had gone straight to bed though as laying my bet during the night when the markets started to favour a hung parliament again cost me a lot of my winnings.0
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Re the pollsters, it looks like the final result will have the Tories ahead by 6%.
The polls generally had it neck and neck, some slightly the Tories ahead.
Allowing for margin of error and a late late late swing it isn't a disaster per se.0 -
Cameron to leave No10 for Buck House at 12:30. - according to SKY.0
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MarqueeMark said:
Yep. Follow you around as you are knocking doors!Dixie said:
Any lessons for pollsters?
The polls did not move during the campaign. But the voters WERE moving. Several of us were telling people. We were poo-pooed as hearing what we wanted to hear.
NO WE FUCKING WEREN'T! There was a huge resource here that was totally ignored in favour of the polls. The polls that we told you were broken.
Well done. And congrats for all your hard work.
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Those of us that mastered VoteSource and used it wisely got the greatest returns - South Norfolk - 30000 Cons votes and 20000 majority. That doesn't happen by itself. It was a big risk for the Tories to roll-out the poll-day module on the day before but Wow! it worked!0
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UKIP within 5,000 in Heywood & Middleton:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140007470 -
@GilesSkyNews: Labour guests dropping like flies from our bookings this morning. Andrew Adonis just pulled out from 9:30am interview with Dermot0
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Please no.felix said:We need some new Opinion pollsters - pronto!!!
We need a total re-write of polling methods and the BPC need an urgent independent enquiry. Make no mistake, this is an unmitigated polling cock up.0 -
They have won by being competent. And by absolutely gutting their Coalition partners of course.Dair said:
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.DavidL said:Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./0 -
How have we lost? We're up in MPs and have an overall majority. Take your head out of your arse and stop inspecting the Scottish navel - your MPs aren't relevant. Your "progressive alliance" lost.Dair said:
Scotland won. 56 out of 59 MPs. Tories lost, Labour lost, Lib Dems need to be removed from being a "Major Party". UKIP need to be removed from being a "Major Party". Greens did on. SNP won the election.felix said:
That's the response of a bitter loser - just like Labour speakers. It's much easier for them to do that than consider what they did wrong.Dair said:
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.DavidL said:Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
There has been a significant change off circumstances.0
