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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BBC predicting the Tories to get 329.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Two UUP MPs, I think. Plus Sinn Fein won't take their seats.

    Tiny majority, if there is one, but the opposition will be far more fragmented than it was under Major.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    AndyJS said:

    Does that include the Speaker? The BBC include Bercow in the Conservative total.

    Mike, some of us are on for a Cons majority. I'm also on for seats so I'm covered nicely [and with other bets] but what is your understanding of the figure which will be settled for a Cons majority? Is it 326?

    My understanding is that a CON majority will be settled on 326 seats.

    Andy

    Many thanks for all the statistical work you've done over the years.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited May 2015
    Mike, if you'd spent the past five years using PB to look at the Lib-Dems impending catastrophe, rather than ignoring it and bashing the Tories day in and day out, you might have been able to have helped head off this disaster.

    Also, the pollsters can't be allowed to get away with the rubbish they've been showing, particularly during the campaign and particularly the online pollsters.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    FPT SDLP would almost certainly have won Belfast South under AV. Big votes for Alliance, Sinn Féin and Green would have been anti-DUP and pro-SDLP.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Was I up for Ed Balls? No I nodded off before 6!!!

    :open_mouth:
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,809
    UKIP vote all about bait and switch. Started off as gin and braces set, drew in white van man, then the former went home leaving the latter to kick labour in the balls.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Was I up for Ed Balls? No I nodded off before 6!!!

    :open_mouth:

    Still hasn't been called.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Epic fail from Sky. They are reporting in their morning news update that Farron lost.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    AndyJS said:

    BBC predicting the Tories to get 329.

    Sky still on 326. I'll take the Beeb's view!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.

    The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    The body language at the Cenotaph this afternoon will be very interesting to see
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,809
    Oh, and at least it's only 5 years till 1997 now....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Osborne sorry to see Danny go. Probably genuine, Danny seemed like a good and loyal deputy.

    Could not have happened to a nicer person , hopefully we will not see the big turnip again.
    Your feeble 56 are quite powerless and will soon be despised by Scots.
    Jog on Monica, what was it you said about Alex again......... Ha Ha Ha
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.

    Was it more fun than you anticipated?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I feel some sympathy for the Yellow Peril. They did the right thing for the Country and got massacred as a result. Politics was never so unfair !
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    GIN1138 said:

    Mike, if you'd spent the past five years using PB to look at the Lib-Dems impending catastrophe, rather than ignoring it and bashing the Tories day in and day out, you might have been able to have helped head off this disaster.

    Also, the pollsters can't be allowed to get away with the rubbish they've been showing, particularly during the campaign and particularly the online pollsters.

    I respectfully hope that lessons might be learnt from it.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Sadly OGH got caught up in the Westminster bubble and missed the glaring fact that EdM was an out and out dud.

    I believe we owe the expression "ed is crap" to OGH. His mistake was thinking that the polling meant that that didn't matter.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Dair said:

    All we need now is to see every other UKIP seat fail

    Why are they taking so long? I know Farage is demanding a recount but where are the others?

    No recount in Thanet, they're just dragging their heels.
  • TW1R64TW1R64 Posts: 56
    Hurry up Morley & Outwood. I want to go to bed!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Also a massive well done to Pref Curtice and friends working on the exit poll. Spot on again, despite the additional complexity.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    murali_s said:

    Devastating result for Labour. Obvoously I am disappointed with the result but congrats to the Tories - this victory must be very sweet indeed.

    Let's now see how the Tories will govern - will they stay in the centre ground or will the backbenchers pull the government well to the right.

    As for Labour, there has to be some reflection. The bottom line is that there has been a disconnect between the Labour leadership and Labour's core vote. Witness how UKIP has mortally wounded Labour outside London.

    At least you were pessimistic about Labour's chances.

    The premature celebrating of some other Labour PBers was astonishing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Is it too early for some Dan?
    In 2010 it had a choice of two leaders. The opinion polls clearly showed one was favoured by the British people. So Labour chose the one favoured by the trade unions.

    Once that leader was elected he was urged to put in place a professional, seasoned team around him. But he chose instead to surround himself with inexperienced ideological soul mates.

    He was urged to confront head-on the political failures of the past, in particular, the previous Labour government’s record of economic management. But he chose instead to defend it.

    He was told the deficit – and a commitment to reducing it – would define the politics of the parliament. But he decided this represented an abstraction, something unrelated to the lives of “ordinary people”.

    He was told to start to construct a serious program for government. He opted instead for a series of slogans – “the jilted generation”, “One Nation”, “Britain deserves better”, etc.

    He was told that in order to win he had to anchor his party firmly in the political centre. Instead, he decided to position it where it felt most comfortable, on the left.

    Above all, he was told that to win he would have to reach out beyond his – and his party’s – comfort zone, and build a broad political alliance. Instead he decided he could coast into power with 35 per cent of the vote.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11591320/Why-did-Labour-lose-this-election-It-never-tried-to-win-it.html
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Sky more professional than BBC - Thrasher a star on the night.

    BBC too slow to cover declarations, at least they spared the interviews with well oiled celebs.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Rochester declaration...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LAB GAIN Lancaster and Fleetwood from Tories
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    According to the SKY News editorial meeting shown on SKY ARTS most of the Labour MPs booked to appear have now said they are not available
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Another Con loss just gone up on BBC.

    What is it?

    Con +19
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Absolute shellacking for the TPD in Rochester & Strood
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Reckless loses by 7,133.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    So, constituency polls.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    TPD bites the dust?
  • Viewing politics from inside Lord Ashcroft's rectum didn't help matters.

    But mike has been gracious so pb Tories should be
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    marke09 said:

    According to the SKY News editorial meeting shown on SKY ARTS most of the Labour MPs booked to appear have now said they are not available

    is that because they aren't MP's any more ;)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    Rochester declaration...

    Con majority of 7000, not even close.

    bang goes my bet on Reckless as next Kipper leader
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Markfergusonuk: Ed Balls has lost. It’s confirmed now
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    5% swing to Sajid Javid in Bromsgrove:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000605
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Reckless GONE.

    UKIP dying on their feet. Good to see the racist party die.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    LAB gain Lancaster and Fleetwood
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,596
    Tories win Rochester by 7,000.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Viewing politics from inside Lord Ashcroft's rectum didn't help matters.

    But mike has been gracious so pb Tories should be

    Na, I think we deserve a bit of slack, especially after MONTHS of EICIPM :D
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Osborne sorry to see Danny go. Probably genuine, Danny seemed like a good and loyal deputy.

    Could not have happened to a nicer person , hopefully we will not see the big turnip again.
    In 2020 he'll be a Conservative MP in southern England.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    This could at least solve Labour and the Lib Dems Scottish problems.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited May 2015

    I feel some sympathy for the Yellow Peril. They did the right thing for the Country and got massacred as a result. Politics was never so unfair !

    They got the strategy disastrously and catastrophically wrong though. "Disassociation" from the coalition and abusing their coalition partners like the way Vice Cable and Mike Smithson have been doing was only ever going to end is disaster.

    They chose their strategy after they lost the AV vote and this is the consequence of that strategy.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Harry Cole retweeted
    JamesLyons ‏@STJamesl 40s40 seconds ago
    Ed B is gone, says Labour source
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    OMG
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Scott_P said:

    @Markfergusonuk: Ed Balls has lost. It’s confirmed now

    Well f##king get on with it...lets get the announcement....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @edballsmp: Ed Balls
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Ed Balls incoming. Tune in.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Scott_P said:

    @Markfergusonuk: Ed Balls has lost. It’s confirmed now

    Finally the silver lining.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    lots on Twitter saying Balls out incl Lab people
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Lucas: The nation can't afford austerity.

    The irony.

    Dim woman.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2015
    bBC saying re Ed Balls "reports that Ed is in a bit of trouble"
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    BBC showing rochester result, record it someone...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    I love the idea of the Sky Arts channel fly-on-the-wall of the election programme production team. What chance that this film ends up available to download in the coming days?
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    BALLS!!!!!!!!!!
  • Will the UUP sit on government benches? Electoral pact with Conservatives.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Lucas needs to see real austerity in Greece instead of spouting platitudes.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    Labour have a real strategic problem now.

    The only places they did well were London, 'Greater Scouseland' and a few studenty places.

    Which means that the dominance of these areas to Labour's membership and political thought will only increase.

    But elections are won not in such places but in those medium sized English towns with names reminiscent of lower league football clhttp://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/?tpid=6441&btag=a_7b_95c_ubs.

    Labour held rock solid in Brum and unfortunately took John Hemming's seat to boot.

    I was expecting Hemming to scrape in, and either or both of Edgbaston and Northfirld to turn blue.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    GIN1138 said:

    I feel some sympathy for the Yellow Peril. They did the right thing for the Country and got massacred as a result. Politics was never so unfair !

    They got the strategy disastrously and catastrophically wrong though. "Disassociation" from the coalition and abusing their coalition partners like the way Vice Cable and Mike Smithson have been doing was only ever going to end is disaster.

    They chose their strategy after they lost the AV vote and this is the consequence of that strategy.
    They delayed savage welfare cuts for three years. What's Cameron going to cut to get the deficit down? Trident?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Any one else been watching the Newsroom Live ON SKY Arts? Fascinating behind the scenes coverage beat the BBC hands down
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Labourlist: Balls out
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    GIN1138 said:

    Mike, if you'd spent the past five years using PB to look at the Lib-Dems impending catastrophe, rather than ignoring it and bashing the Tories day in and day out, you might have been able to have helped head off this disaster.

    Also, the pollsters can't be allowed to get away with the rubbish they've been showing, particularly during the campaign and particularly the online pollsters.

    I doubt one man could have seriously changed the LD's entire fortunes. They were always going down.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    BBC showing rochester result, record it someone...

    Slaughtered him.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    DavidL said:

    Tories now at 300.

    David as a SCUPer what's the mood in Scotland ?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,809

    Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.

    The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.

    Yes indeed Southam, and I don't think they can do it. The Euro referendum has all the hallmarks of the event that will kill the Union. In my heart of hearts this result isn't a surprise although the scale goes beyond what I expected. The complete lack of enthusiasm did scream 1992, and the voters have gone for the devil they know.

    Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Results so far: - Tory 300 – LAB 221 – SNP 56 – LD 8 – UKIP 1 - GRN 1
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I think that's a key factor - they alienated many Orange Tories and lost the credibility of being In Government that could have reset their credentials.

    But they preferred being in Opposition - all the LDs I talked to yesterday said they enjoyed being the grit in the oyster - no wonder they didn't much like HMG at a voter level.
    GIN1138 said:

    I feel some sympathy for the Yellow Peril. They did the right thing for the Country and got massacred as a result. Politics was never so unfair !

    They got the strategy disastrously and catastrophically wrong though. "Disassociation" from the coalition and abusing their coalition partners like the way Vice Cable and Mike Smithson have been doing was only ever going to end is disaster.

    They chose their strategy after they lost the AV vote and this is the consequence of that strategy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    AndyJS said:
    Brilliant. A potential leader in the next 5 years....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    marke09 said:

    Any one else been watching the Newsroom Live ON SKY Arts? Fascinating behind the scenes coverage beat the BBC hands down

    Yes, it was excellent
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Ed Balls was campaigning all around the country, so was definitely caught out by the Tories.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Lucas whining like a bitch and wanting to gerrymander the electoral system to harm the Conservatives and help 'the progressives'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    COMEEEEEE ONNNNNNNNNNNNN......I've been waiting for 4hrs for this....
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    FPT..Is NPXMP still XMP..
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con hold Keighley.

    KEY HOLD
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Cons HOLD Keighly 300 vs 221
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Balls castrated..?????
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    edited May 2015

    Will the UUP sit on government benches? Electoral pact with Conservatives.

    They tried the pact, Northern Irish people were repelled by it, they ditched the pact, they won two seats. So, yeah, no.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    THE Portillo Moment 2015 coming up.

    Delighted Balls gone.

    I will savor this!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Ed Balls has mounted the scaffold.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    BBC LauraK - Balls out looks like
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    I'm desperate to see Farage face when he loses. I'm probably more interested in seeing UKIPpers faces when he loses.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    ITS HAPPENING
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Morley declaration...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Here he comes...Spheroids....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    I feel some sympathy for the Yellow Peril. They did the right thing for the Country and got massacred as a result. Politics was never so unfair !

    They got the strategy disastrously and catastrophically wrong though. "Disassociation" from the coalition and abusing their coalition partners like the way Vice Cable and Mike Smithson have been doing was only ever going to end is disaster.

    They chose their strategy after they lost the AV vote and this is the consequence of that strategy.
    I agree. Opposing your own government was always going to be a problem.

    I think that either this needed to be a coupon election, Or Nick Clegg should have stood down last autumn and the LDs formally leave the government.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150

    Was I up for Ed Balls? No I nodded off before 6!!!

    :open_mouth:

    Spoke too soon, Morley declaring
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    She's done it - look at the smile!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Bye bye balls
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Come on Andrea!!!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morley & Outwood - Balls gone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Reasons to be cheerful, one two three....

    The end of SLAB

    The end of the TPD, MP.

    The end of Gorgeous George, MP.

    The end of Vince Cable, MP.

    The end of Ed Balls, MP.

    EMWNBPM
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Balls got kicked.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    BALLS OUT
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BALLS OUT

    Con 18,776
    Lab 18,354
    UKIP 7,951
    LD 1,426
    Green 1,264
    YF 479
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    WE WERE UP FOR IT!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    422 votes Balls loses!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    GET IN.....
This discussion has been closed.