Mike, some of us are on for a Cons majority. I'm also on for seats so I'm covered nicely [and with other bets] but what is your understanding of the figure which will be settled for a Cons majority? Is it 326?
My understanding is that a CON majority will be settled on 326 seats.
Andy
Many thanks for all the statistical work you've done over the years.
Mike, if you'd spent the past five years using PB to look at the Lib-Dems impending catastrophe, rather than ignoring it and bashing the Tories day in and day out, you might have been able to have helped head off this disaster.
Also, the pollsters can't be allowed to get away with the rubbish they've been showing, particularly during the campaign and particularly the online pollsters.
UKIP vote all about bait and switch. Started off as gin and braces set, drew in white van man, then the former went home leaving the latter to kick labour in the balls.
Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
Mike, if you'd spent the past five years using PB to look at the Lib-Dems impending catastrophe, rather than ignoring it and bashing the Tories day in and day out, you might have been able to have helped head off this disaster.
Also, the pollsters can't be allowed to get away with the rubbish they've been showing, particularly during the campaign and particularly the online pollsters.
I respectfully hope that lessons might be learnt from it.
Devastating result for Labour. Obvoously I am disappointed with the result but congrats to the Tories - this victory must be very sweet indeed.
Let's now see how the Tories will govern - will they stay in the centre ground or will the backbenchers pull the government well to the right.
As for Labour, there has to be some reflection. The bottom line is that there has been a disconnect between the Labour leadership and Labour's core vote. Witness how UKIP has mortally wounded Labour outside London.
At least you were pessimistic about Labour's chances.
The premature celebrating of some other Labour PBers was astonishing.
In 2010 it had a choice of two leaders. The opinion polls clearly showed one was favoured by the British people. So Labour chose the one favoured by the trade unions.
Once that leader was elected he was urged to put in place a professional, seasoned team around him. But he chose instead to surround himself with inexperienced ideological soul mates.
He was urged to confront head-on the political failures of the past, in particular, the previous Labour government’s record of economic management. But he chose instead to defend it.
He was told the deficit – and a commitment to reducing it – would define the politics of the parliament. But he decided this represented an abstraction, something unrelated to the lives of “ordinary people”.
He was told to start to construct a serious program for government. He opted instead for a series of slogans – “the jilted generation”, “One Nation”, “Britain deserves better”, etc.
He was told that in order to win he had to anchor his party firmly in the political centre. Instead, he decided to position it where it felt most comfortable, on the left.
Above all, he was told that to win he would have to reach out beyond his – and his party’s – comfort zone, and build a broad political alliance. Instead he decided he could coast into power with 35 per cent of the vote.
I feel some sympathy for the Yellow Peril. They did the right thing for the Country and got massacred as a result. Politics was never so unfair !
They got the strategy disastrously and catastrophically wrong though. "Disassociation" from the coalition and abusing their coalition partners like the way Vice Cable and Mike Smithson have been doing was only ever going to end is disaster.
They chose their strategy after they lost the AV vote and this is the consequence of that strategy.
I love the idea of the Sky Arts channel fly-on-the-wall of the election programme production team. What chance that this film ends up available to download in the coming days?
I feel some sympathy for the Yellow Peril. They did the right thing for the Country and got massacred as a result. Politics was never so unfair !
They got the strategy disastrously and catastrophically wrong though. "Disassociation" from the coalition and abusing their coalition partners like the way Vice Cable and Mike Smithson have been doing was only ever going to end is disaster.
They chose their strategy after they lost the AV vote and this is the consequence of that strategy.
They delayed savage welfare cuts for three years. What's Cameron going to cut to get the deficit down? Trident?
Mike, if you'd spent the past five years using PB to look at the Lib-Dems impending catastrophe, rather than ignoring it and bashing the Tories day in and day out, you might have been able to have helped head off this disaster.
Also, the pollsters can't be allowed to get away with the rubbish they've been showing, particularly during the campaign and particularly the online pollsters.
I doubt one man could have seriously changed the LD's entire fortunes. They were always going down.
Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
Yes indeed Southam, and I don't think they can do it. The Euro referendum has all the hallmarks of the event that will kill the Union. In my heart of hearts this result isn't a surprise although the scale goes beyond what I expected. The complete lack of enthusiasm did scream 1992, and the voters have gone for the devil they know.
Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.
I think that's a key factor - they alienated many Orange Tories and lost the credibility of being In Government that could have reset their credentials.
But they preferred being in Opposition - all the LDs I talked to yesterday said they enjoyed being the grit in the oyster - no wonder they didn't much like HMG at a voter level.
I feel some sympathy for the Yellow Peril. They did the right thing for the Country and got massacred as a result. Politics was never so unfair !
They got the strategy disastrously and catastrophically wrong though. "Disassociation" from the coalition and abusing their coalition partners like the way Vice Cable and Mike Smithson have been doing was only ever going to end is disaster.
They chose their strategy after they lost the AV vote and this is the consequence of that strategy.
I feel some sympathy for the Yellow Peril. They did the right thing for the Country and got massacred as a result. Politics was never so unfair !
They got the strategy disastrously and catastrophically wrong though. "Disassociation" from the coalition and abusing their coalition partners like the way Vice Cable and Mike Smithson have been doing was only ever going to end is disaster.
They chose their strategy after they lost the AV vote and this is the consequence of that strategy.
I agree. Opposing your own government was always going to be a problem.
I think that either this needed to be a coupon election, Or Nick Clegg should have stood down last autumn and the LDs formally leave the government.
Comments
Tiny majority, if there is one, but the opposition will be far more fragmented than it was under Major.
Many thanks for all the statistical work you've done over the years.
Also, the pollsters can't be allowed to get away with the rubbish they've been showing, particularly during the campaign and particularly the online pollsters.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
The premature celebrating of some other Labour PBers was astonishing.
BBC too slow to cover declarations, at least they spared the interviews with well oiled celebs.
What is it?
Con +19
But mike has been gracious so pb Tories should be
bang goes my bet on Reckless as next Kipper leader
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000605
UKIP dying on their feet. Good to see the racist party die.
They chose their strategy after they lost the AV vote and this is the consequence of that strategy.
JamesLyons @STJamesl 40s40 seconds ago
Ed B is gone, says Labour source
The irony.
Dim woman.
I was expecting Hemming to scrape in, and either or both of Edgbaston and Northfirld to turn blue.
Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.
But they preferred being in Opposition - all the LDs I talked to yesterday said they enjoyed being the grit in the oyster - no wonder they didn't much like HMG at a voter level.
KEY HOLD
Delighted Balls gone.
I will savor this!
I think that either this needed to be a coupon election, Or Nick Clegg should have stood down last autumn and the LDs formally leave the government.
The end of SLAB
The end of the TPD, MP.
The end of Gorgeous George, MP.
The end of Vince Cable, MP.
The end of Ed Balls, MP.
EMWNBPM
Con 18,776
Lab 18,354
UKIP 7,951
LD 1,426
Green 1,264
YF 479