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SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Many congratulations to those who called it right

Before we start looking at coming party leadership contests and the polling for the general election let’s first offer our congratulations to those who called it right. On PB there was JackW who has triumphed once again.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Thanks ;-)
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited May 2015
    Sky Projection Tory majority with 326 but that's based, for instance, on Farage winning. 326 is probably 'conservative' says Thrasher.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Extraordinary result - not sure I'll ever believe a mainstream poll again!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    @Andy_JS

    Wow - I knew it was close but that is stunning.
    MikeL said:

    Plato said:

    Do you have the final result for Eastbourne? I know we aren't counting the council seats until Saturday here.

    AndyJS said:

    Cock fan Penny Mordaunt increased her majority to 10,537 in Portsmouth North:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000883

    Eastbourne:

    Con 20,934
    LD 20,201
    UKIP 6,139
    Lab 4,143
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,621
    edited May 2015
    Wow - Sky now projecting a majority, 326 for the Cons. :D:D:D:D:D:D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    Well done JackW! Hope the losses aren't too bad for OGH.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Nice one OGH.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Congrats to Number Cruncher who appears to have got this spot on.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    It would be interesting to know how Jack W, presumably with limited resources, was able to do better than YouGov & co with their huge resources and greater technical expertise
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2015
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    Prodicus Foot got 209 seats, Kinnock 229 in 1987 Ed M did slightly better than that

    Happy to be corrected. I was quoting. Probably misquoting. Sorry.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    YBarddCwsc said:


    It would be interesting to know how Jack W, presumably with limited resources, was able to do better than YouGov & co with their huge resources and greater technical expertise

    He pulled it out his ARSE, clearly ;)
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.

    Mike won't have seen this (?) but we've been praising pb.com for the coverage. Best place of the night.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    Yes:

    https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Neil Kinnock got his party back...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    Purseybear said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.

    Mike won't have seen this (?) but we've been praising pb.com for the coverage. Best place of the night.
    Yep, it is THE place to be on election night.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Good morning, everyone.

    Glad I didn't stay up for my local result, given it hasn't quite come in yet.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News projecting Tories to win 326 seats.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,258
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.

    congrats

    (edit: and thanks - although I was, ahem, in absentia for a while..)

  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Well done JackW.

    Don't know whether it was science, intuition, a fluke or some of each. But I widely dissed you and that was remiss of me.

    Apologies.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Come on Balls.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Labour heading down towards 30% on the national vote share....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Norwich North Con HOLD
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't think anyone thought the LDs would lose Eastbourne.
    Plato said:

    @Andy_JS

    Wow - I knew it was close but that is stunning.

    MikeL said:

    Plato said:

    Do you have the final result for Eastbourne? I know we aren't counting the council seats until Saturday here.

    AndyJS said:

    Cock fan Penny Mordaunt increased her majority to 10,537 in Portsmouth North:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000883

    Eastbourne:

    Con 20,934
    LD 20,201
    UKIP 6,139
    Lab 4,143
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    Purseybear said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.

    Mike won't have seen this (?) but we've been praising pb.com for the coverage. Best place of the night.
    Seconded.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.

    It was a pleasure to sit through it. Well done pb and jack w especially. Pb tories not always wrong. Fair play also to the reds such as np2xmp, so and BenM for staying online and not being fairweather visitors.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,621
    Well done to Robert and JackW, clearly the closest of the PB punters in the last few days.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    3 LD seats still to come

    Berwick
    St Ives
    What's the other?

    At least two POTENTIAL Con gains.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.

    You did a superb job throughout the night TSE – Thank you. :lol:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    edited May 2015
    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.

    congrats

    (edit: and thanks - although I was, ahem, in absentia for a while..)

    Robert and Mike also deserve praise for the time, effort and money they've spent on making the server robust to deal with all the traffic.

    We had nearly 11,000 comments in 10 hours
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LD vote drops by 30.5 points in Hereford:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000743
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Sandpit said:

    Well done to Robert and JackW, clearly the closest of the PB punters in the last few days.

    Don't forget Rod.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,180
    A bright good morning to one and all with appropriate congratulations and comisserations - either for political and/or betting reasons.

    A few winners:

    JackW and his ARSE
    Paul Mid Beds who IIRC forecast this result
    The exit poll
    PB's Conservative canvassers for accurate info
    Future minority governments

    Some losers:

    The opinion polls - credibility totally gone
    The LibDems - several hundred councillors are likely to bite the dust today
    Those Conservative MPs who stood down expecting defeat
    PB's Labour canvassers - what happened to your ground game ?
    Future coalition governments - not likely to happen


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    A suitably gracious and humble post from OGH this morning. Well-judged.

    I trust the losses are not too painful.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Mike, some of us are on for a Cons majority. I'm also on for seats so I'm covered nicely [and with other bets] but what is your understanding of the figure which will be settled for a Cons majority? Is it 326?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Lab HOLD Gedling. Boo hiss
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    I conceed, at last, that it turns out Ed really was crap. I guess I just think too well of people.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    another_richard said:


    PB's Labour canvassers - what happened to your ground game ?

    Paging IOS.....
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MikeL said:

    3 LD seats still to come

    Berwick
    St Ives
    What's the other?

    At least two POTENTIAL Con gains.

    Chippenham, Wells yet to delcare. Then there are up to 4 Lab gains:

    Halifax
    Derby North
    Gedling
    Morley and Outwood
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    I wonder if we will ever find out if individual registration made things worse for LAB/LD

    Doesn't seem to have affected SNP!!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Norwich North Con HOLD

    Chloe stays.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Chloe Smith holds Norwich North for the Tories.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.



    We had nearly 11,000 comments in 10 hours
    Blimey. That ought to be widely broadcast. Helps to up the site's income.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Tissue_Price said:

    MikeL said:

    3 LD seats still to come

    Berwick
    St Ives
    What's the other?

    At least two POTENTIAL Con gains.

    Chippenham, Wells yet to delcare. Then there are up to 4 Lab gains:

    Halifax
    Derby North
    Gedling
    Morley and Outwood
    Chippenham is in.

    It's Wells.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    I won almost every single one of my consituency bets last night and this morning.

    I am feeling rather pleased.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    edited May 2015
    Prodicus said:


    Blimey. That ought to be widely broadcast. Helps to up the site's income.

    Robert was saying they may top a million views!!!
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    '90 polls, and only one or two came close' (Thrasher)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    Surprised and a little disappointed but congratulations to the winners.

    I even feel a little sorry for Ed. The polls were wrong but not that wrong - the FPTP system exaggerates the small differences. Ukip now established in third place for votes. Ken wanting a left turn as expected.

    And thanks to TSE and OGH.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. Price, Morley & Outwood would be a hold for Labour, not a gain.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Sadly OGH got caught up in the Westminster bubble and missed the glaring fact that EdM was an out and out dud.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Osborne sorry to see Danny go. Probably genuine, Danny seemed like a good and loyal deputy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    CD13 said:

    Surprised and a little disappointed but congratulations to the winners.

    I even feel a little sorry for Ed. The polls were wrong but not that wrong - the FPTP system exaggerates the small differences. Ukip now established in third place for votes. Ken wanting a left turn as expected.

    And thanks to TSE and OGH.

    The polls were very wrong. It may end up Tory+7.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Labour and LibDems would best see their current predicament as existential crises... Majority means referendum, it means boundary changes
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Price, Morley & Outwood would be a hold for Labour, not a gain.

    Balls may loose. Labour asked for a recount.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,180
    Labour have a real strategic problem now.

    The only places they did well were London, 'Greater Scouseland' and a few studenty places.

    Which means that the dominance of these areas to Labour's membership and political thought will only increase.

    But elections are won not in such places but in those medium sized English towns with names reminiscent of lower league football clubs.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Purseybear said:

    Mike, some of us are on for a Cons majority. I'm also on for seats so I'm covered nicely [and with other bets] but what is your understanding of the figure which will be settled for a Cons majority? Is it 326?

    My understanding is that a CON majority will be settled on 326 seats.

  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    NORWICH NORTH
    19000 Chloe Smith [Con]
    14000 Jess Asasto [Lab]
    6000 UKIP
    2000 Grn
    5000 majority
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Casino_Royale Con HOLD Waveney
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Balls in about 20 minutes
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Paddy Ashdown and a hat on air right now
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    MikeSmithson said:

    Purseybear said:

    Mike, some of us are on for a Cons majority. I'm also on for seats so I'm covered nicely [and with other bets] but what is your understanding of the figure which will be settled for a Cons majority? Is it 326?

    My understanding is that a CON majority will be settled on 326 seats.

    Brilliant thanks. Here's hoping :-)

    Think I win on 9 of my 10 bets. The one I lose is that I hedged on both 0-10 LDs and 11-20 LDs but got great odds a long way back.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Con gain Southampton Itchen
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Plato said:

    @Casino_Royale Con HOLD Waveney

    Yay, I've been predicting this one for days.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Plato said:

    @Casino_Royale Con HOLD Waveney

    that has cost me a lot of money
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    When do we get Hodges streak?
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Plato said:

    @Casino_Royale Con HOLD Waveney

    Leaving these critical:

    Lancaster, Bedford, Keighley, Warwick & Leamington, Crewe & Nantwich
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tristram Hunt's vote in Stoke Central drops from 12,605 to 12,220:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000972
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: Paddy Ashdown dodges "hat eating" moment. #ge2015 #brokenpledge
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Con gain Southampton Itchen

    :D
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,180
    A big thanks to antifrank.

    And anyone who followed my tips on the Conservatives in Elmet, Weaver Vale, Pudsey and Battersea will have something to smile about.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    edited May 2015
    Waveney and Norwich North held.

    Lancaster, Morecambe, Bedford, Warwick and Crewe to hear from on Con defences against Labour.

    Edit: and Thanet South.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does that include the Speaker? The BBC include Bercow in the Conservative total.
    MikeSmithson said:

    Purseybear said:

    Mike, some of us are on for a Cons majority. I'm also on for seats so I'm covered nicely [and with other bets] but what is your understanding of the figure which will be settled for a Cons majority? Is it 326?

    My understanding is that a CON majority will be settled on 326 seats.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    edited May 2015
    Crewe & Nantwich - I wouldn't be surprised if that went against the trend and went Labour.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    edited May 2015
    Penance for tactical vote. No sleep inn 26 hours.

    Labour in Bristol West had a good ground game, never seen them bother my road in 12 years, but they were determined. Greens trying to cycle up St Michael's Hill without data got them the result they deserved.

    Trouble is the Green slime might win council seats.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,896
    Best Con result in Greater Manchester since 1992. Best in Wales since, ooh, 1983?
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Plato said:

    @Casino_Royale Con HOLD Waveney

    Didn't see THAT coming - and it's just next door

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,741
    Mike I hope you don't mind my reiterating my full (not fulsome) praise for this website. I made several hundred euros on the result and I will contribute a tithe of that to this site.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,848
    kle4 said:

    Osborne sorry to see Danny go. Probably genuine, Danny seemed like a good and loyal deputy.

    Could not have happened to a nicer person , hopefully we will not see the big turnip again.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    It's too much to hope both nige and balls too??? Back later and hope isam is ok.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    respect to all you guys who got close to the result. hope it made you some cash too.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Still waiting for Stoke North and South.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Ashdown accuses Cameron of running a 'campaign of fear' and dividing the country

    Now that the Lib Dems are no longer in Government, is there ANY chance that Paddy will now just fuck off our TV screens?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,237
    Tories now at 300.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    I got 13-1 on LD's getting 0-10 seats. Think that looks secure doesn't it now?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,621
    I actually feel quite sorry for the LDs to some extent. The coalition needed to happen in 2010 and they paid the unfortunate electoral price for it.

    I hope that in his celebrations Cameron can find a minute to pay tribute to the LDs 2010-15.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Question about the Fixed Parliament Act. Ignoring the possibility of the Conservatives overturning it, doesn't a Conservative Minority render it technically irrelevant anyway? If the Conservatives wanted to call a general election, all they need to do is pass a motion of no confidence in themselves. Then wait two weeks and pass a motion of no confidence in any government that attempts to replace them?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Disaster Appeal- Ed Miliband

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZY7Pkcl6v4
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,188
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Ashdown accuses Cameron of running a 'campaign of fear' and dividing the country

    Now that the Lib Dems are no longer in Government, is there ANY chance that Paddy will now just fuck off our TV screens?

    At least he will stop the begging e-mails to LD members.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well done to Robert and JackW, clearly the closest of the PB punters in the last few days.

    Don't forget Rod.
    Thanks
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Osborne sorry to see Danny go. Probably genuine, Danny seemed like a good and loyal deputy.

    Could not have happened to a nicer person , hopefully we will not see the big turnip again.
    Your feeble 56 are quite powerless and will soon be despised by Scots.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    alex. said:

    Question about the Fixed Parliament Act. Ignoring the possibility of the Conservatives overturning it, doesn't a Conservative Minority render it technically irrelevant anyway? If the Conservatives wanted to call a general election, all they need to do is pass a motion of no confidence in themselves. Then wait two weeks and pass a motion of no confidence in any government that attempts to replace them?

    LOL. Makes a mockery of the Act, doesn't it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I just occurred to me.. Tim was right.. His twitter feed is George Osborne Genius !

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    Devastating result for Labour. Obvoously I am disappointed with the result but congrats to the Tories - this victory must be very sweet indeed.

    Let's now see how the Tories will govern - will they stay in the centre ground or will the backbenchers pull the government well to the right.

    As for Labour, there has to be some reflection. The bottom line is that there has been a disconnect between the Labour leadership and Labour's core vote. Witness how UKIP has mortally wounded Labour outside London.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Good shout there - I forecast 17 and thought that was a bit tough!
    Purseybear said:

    I got 13-1 on LD's getting 0-10 seats. Think that looks secure doesn't it now?

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,180
    Anyone have thoughts as to where the UKIP vote came from ?

    There's a good correlation between the UKIP rise and the LibDems fall.

    But I think some of the 'Red Libs' must have gone Labour (as they did in London) with Labour in turn losing wwc votes to UKIP.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited May 2015
    Currently Con +20

    3 more likely gains from LD.

    Then possible gains and loses vs Lab.
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    South West Norfolk - Liz Truss - Bunnco says next PM - Increased vote and majority CON HOLD
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    All we need now is to see every other UKIP seat fail

    Why are they taking so long? I know Farage is demanding a recount but where are the others?
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Sandpit said:

    I actually feel quite sorry for the LDs to some extent. The coalition needed to happen in 2010

    I do too. They have been sacrificed. There is going to be a very bitter aftertaste from this for them. Assuming they survive.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,258
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was my pleasure to edit PB overnight.

    congrats

    (edit: and thanks - although I was, ahem, in absentia for a while..)

    Robert and Mike also deserve praise for the time, effort and money they've spent on making the server robust to deal with all the traffic.

    We had nearly 11,000 comments in 10 hours
    And of course thanks to all those voters who made the night so special.

    :smile:
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