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  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    791 for lib dem??
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    Universities will be taking applications for new PhD's to start in the autumn to analyze this election, the exit polls vs pollsters performance, etc. Be fascinating opportunity for somebody.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Lib Dems got smashed.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    First of how many UKIP seconds tonight?
  • EDW20000
    EDW20000 Posts: 138
    SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    LD LOL Sunderland S
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    The official in charge of our polling station wouldn't let us inside = even for toilet break and even if we didn't wear a rosette!

    It was in a youth centre - is that legal? I'm going to poke enormous fun at Mrs Po Face in the local press over it. How ridiculous.
    SimonStClare said:

    Plato said:

    Fun anecdote - one of my LD teller compatriots told me of a spoilt ballot paper that was accepted.

    A voter had expertly drawn a cannabis leaf in the box and everyone agreed that this was fair.

    Another voter was the wife of a returning officer who was having an affair - she wrote all about it in the little box at the same count. Hilariously awkward there.

    Evening Plato - Keep the 'teller' anecdotes comming, they're hilarious. :lol:
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour only up 2,000 in a North East constituency where they're supposed to be doing better than anywhere else.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Lab have at least 1 MP :lol:
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    A labour hold... I'm shocked, shocked...
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    So thats UKIP second in Sunderland?
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    chuffin' hell well done the Kippers. No wonder Nuttall was advocating voting reform.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Sunderland broadly in line with the exit poll as well.
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    While BBC World News is giving us Dimbleby and co BBC America is running back to back episodes of "Kitchen Nightmares"...
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Greens beat Lib dems in Sunderland Houghton ?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Curtice seems to be full of contradictions.

    If labour are taking most LD seats why arethey on 239. And where do Tory gains come from?

    Labour have to be taking 15 from LDs, if exit polls are correct.
  • watford30
    watford30 Posts: 3,474
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Danny565 said:

    Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?

    Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.

    I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.

    But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.
    Flipper Balls is up there with Al Campbell. Defenestration couldn't happen to a more deserving individual, if it happens.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Great result for UKIP in Sunderland.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Labour are ahead on actual results!
    (Sunderland)
    :)
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    Tim_B said:

    While BBC World News is giving us Dimbleby and co BBC America is running back to back episodes of "Kitchen Nightmares"...

    You got the better deal.

  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Roger said:

    SO. It looks like you might have hit lucky!!

    No luck in it. This result was never in doubt. Though even I would be slightly surprised if the Tories hit 316.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sunderland UKIP 2nd 21% I was spot on. LOL :D
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    LD lost deposit count 1
  • FalseFlag
    FalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    edited May 2015
    UKIP need some close seconds in those rotten Labour seats in the north, good start.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    And first of how many LD lost deposits?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    First Lib Dem deposit loss of the night
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    UKIP % up but in the wrong place.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Sunderland Comfortable Labour hold, majority of 13,000 over second placed UKIP, Tories narrowly behind on 3rd, LDs overtaken by the Greens
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Lovely hair :lol:
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Sunderland is not that good for the Tories but very good for UKIP compared with the exit poll.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour putting on just 2,081 votes in Houghton.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    I did post the other night:

    Cameron = Major?

    :)
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Wow.

    Good result for UKIP there.

    Poor turnout in Sunderland H though. 56%
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    BTW, when it is Lib Dem GE campaign starting?
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Turnout level on 2010.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Labour woman doesn't sound confident
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Sunderland backs the exit poll?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,611
    The exit poll predicted 60 for Lab.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Labour falling short of the exit poll in Sunderland...
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited May 2015
    @CountfromSesameSt: One lost Lib Dem deposit ah-ah-ah
  • EDW20000
    EDW20000 Posts: 138
    SELL CONS
    SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    SNP continue to reach out to Labour.

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/596432455332175872
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Swing Con to Lab 4% in Sunderland S
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    4% swing to Labour.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited May 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Labour only up 2,000 in a North East constituency where they're supposed to be doing better than anywhere else.

    Con majority? :D
  • initforthemoney
    initforthemoney Posts: 736
    What was UKIP's highest percentage in a seat at the 2010 election?
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    BBC focussing on the minutiae...


    The important swing is Con to Lab 4%
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    H&SS

    Looks like Labour didn't turn out for them - they got 55% not the predicted 60%. UKIP on 21.5% vs 16% predicted - presumably a lot from Labour and some from the Tories (who under performed)

    Swing of 3.9% vs exit poll prediction of 5%

    LibDems lost first deposit of the night
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited May 2015
    Lab up 5% UKIP up 19% Tories down 3% LD down 12% in Sunderland, 4% swing to Labour, but Labour doing best in NE
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    Emily is blending in with Lab hold/gains.

    Where's @SandraM ? What was she thinking?
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Bad omen for Ed Balls as well.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    rcs1000 said:

    "Nigel Farage has won and by a bigger margin than people think."

    over 6.5??????
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Thanks Curtice I take it back
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Actual swing 4%

    Exit said swing of 5%
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Running totals from the BBC:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.
  • Blue_rog
    Blue_rog Posts: 2,019
    V good point regarding the UKIP vote - swing from the major parties to them and making marginals more so
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited May 2015
    Ave_it said:

    BBC focussing on the minutiae...


    The important swing is Con to Lab 4%

    and that's in the area where they are supposed to be doing best...
    5% anticipated in exit poll.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Danny565 said:

    Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?

    Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.

    I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.

    But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.

    No, Labour needs to start again. Best for all if the old guard goes.

  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    MaxPB said:

    Sunderland broadly in line with the exit poll as well.

    Yes.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Sandpit said:

    First of how many UKIP seconds tonight?

    A shit-load.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Speedy said:

    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.

    But UKIP only 7% better than the BNP result in 2010
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Friend just texted

    If Jose Mourinho was Labour Leader, Labour would win this election now
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Will the story be labour boosting votes in places it doesn't matter?
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Terrible for the LDs, Sunderland. Having a feeling they are going to get smashed tonight....
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 48 secs49 seconds ago

    Curtice says that the swing to Lab in Sunderland is actually worse than the exit poll for Lab
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    I have a hat and some ketchup. And I will eat it, if these exit polls are right.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    https://twitter.com/roadto326/status/596433114735505409
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Slackbladder said:

    Will the story be labour boosting votes in places it doesn't matter?

    Yes.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Farage only needs about 32% to win Thanet South and they've just got 22% in Houghton.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    Greens on 4 figures in Sunderland is good result.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Slackbladder said:

    Will the story be labour boosting votes in places it doesn't matter?

    Yep.
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    Absent minded professor says 'one swallow doesn't make a summer'. Gripping stuff.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    I remember when Tony got his landslide Sunderland gave Labour 30,000+ votes.

    Ed seem's to have barely improved on what Brown did...
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Friend just texted

    If Jose Mourinho was Labour Leader, Labour would win this election now

    But they have Ed Miliband.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    We can deduce the overall swing should be between -11 or +3.

    i.e. we can deduce nothing, although it's a good result for Labour.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Judging by the Sunderland result compared to the projection, it seems the exit poll slightly overstated both Tories and Labour, and understated UKIP.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,611
    Annoyingly, the BBC page doesn't autorefresh.
  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    rottenborough said:

    I have a hat and some ketchup. And I will eat it, if these exit polls are right.

    Photos please! :)
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    About 2 hours till Nuneaton.
    The result that will determine if the exit poll is right or wrong.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    On the basis of Sunderland lost deposit, Clegg must be a little worried.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rosschawkins: UKIP second in Sunderland - they'll hope to win councillors tonight in locals, challenge in future in north
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Farron to be Lib Dem leader by next week?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    MarqueeMark said:

    Speedy said:

    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.

    But UKIP only 7% better than the BNP result in 2010
    eh?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Won't have to wait long for the Scottish Labour old guard to go...
    SouthamObserver said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Danny565 said:

    Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?

    Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.

    I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.

    But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.

    No, Labour needs to start again. Best for all if the old guard goes.

  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    56% turnout, 55% in 2010.

    BNP 5.2 and UKIP 2.7 in 2010 was one of highest scoring BNP seats.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    Just a word of caution.

    The swing to Tories in early declarations in 2010 was much better than overall...it resulted in lots of Tories early on becoming convinced Exit Poll understating Tories, but in reality Tories missed in a lot of "easy" seats.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Looks like my pessimistic blog about Labour yesterday may not have been pessimistic enough.... http://t.co/o5KA28iTu5
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    MarqueeMark said:

    Speedy said:

    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.

    But UKIP only 7% better than the BNP result in 2010
    6% higher than the exit poll.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Roger said:

    Farron to be Lib Dem leader by next week?

    Hearing Westmoreland is close...
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Roger said:

    Farron to be Lib Dem leader by next week?

    If he holds his seat!
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    MaxPB said:

    Bad omen for Ed Balls as well.

    Please, PLEASE PLEASE can we have an Ed Balls 'moment' tonight!
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MarqueeMark said:

    Speedy said:

    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.

    But UKIP only 7% better than the BNP result in 2010
    Eh? UKIP got 22%. BNP got 5% in 2010...
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    RodCrosby said:

    We can deduce the overall swing should be between -11 or +3.

    i.e. we can deduce nothing, although it's a good result for Labour.

    It's actually worse than the exit poll predicted...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    ITV Cymru

    Lib Dem sources aren’t conceding Cardiff Central which they say is ‘very close’ and in recount territory.

    Welsh Conservative sources not giving up on Cardiff North saying it’s on a knife edge + ‘We can’t read it at all
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Yorkshire bad for Labour.

    Balls losing really would be a silver lining.
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    Sandpit said:

    And first of how many LD lost deposits?

    200+? A fair chunk of change for the party to shell out no matter what.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mandelson accuses Cameron of whipping up a frenzy of English nationalism.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Just a word of caution.

    The swing to Tories in early declarations in 2010 was much better than overall...it resulted in lots of Tories early on becoming convinced Exit Poll understating Tories, but in reality Tories missed in a lot of "easy" seats.

    Nuneaton will tell, 2 hours till then though.
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