politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to 4% lead with Survation and Ed now ahead of Dav

There were, in fieldwork chronology, 8 Lab poll leads in a row in February. We have 6 in a row as of today's Panelbase/Survation.

What's been weird about the Tories' campaign this week is the missed opportunity. Looking at it objectively, why on Earth did they not have a big counter-intuitive tax change or announcement on pay to follow-up all the stuff about 'money-back Monday'? It ended up a complete damp squib because there were no new news lines out of it, just Cameron and Osborne congratulating themselves on their own brilliance, which predictably was muddied by the opposition making counter-claims and journalists not being too keen on swallowing obvious propaganda. If they had, they could've portrayed the non-dom policy as a gimmicky response to their own plans and something they were looking at doing anyway. Instead Labour have seized control of the news agenda, with the Tories reduced to desperate carping and this nasty trident tripe.

As a pessimist, I can only think that they're saving up their ammunition for later and this period of lackadaisical campaigning is designed to tease out Labour's strategy and generate over excitement among their enemies in order to hit when Labour have thrown their best populist punches. Rope-a-dope, if you will. The Tories have been so crap it surely has to be deliberate - they'll have to be careful though, if it isn't and this is their strategy they'll lose, possibly heavily. Ed Miliband will never be acclaimed as the father of the nation, but with every day he calmly deals with the nonsense coming from CCHQ, he looks more and more like the next PM, and if his personal ratings continue to edge up, even those who didn't think he was up to it will reluctantly accept that he's preferable to a busted flush in Cameron.

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/586217830430937088

Got to ask, in spite of me being a UKIP supporter, who the hell is daft enough to be betting on UKIP being the largest party?

Purseybear said:

kle4 said:

Purseybear said:

suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
.

Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.

Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.

WTF are you on about? As people age, their savings increase. How do you manage to explain that with every house running a deficit?

Managed back 40 and lay 29 Lab maj this avo, glad I tuned in!

£20@60.25 obtained

Stereotomy said:

I haven't been around today. Have the nats here apologised for perpetuating the lies and bullying about that girl who asked the question in the scottish debate?

Have a look at Wings over Scotland for a rather different story.

What's on tonight politics-wise? Is it the opposition leaders debate tonight or something else?

Obviously Question Time and This Week but wasn't sure what else?

Philip_Thompson said:

What's on tonight politics-wise? Is it the opposition leaders debate tonight or something else?

Obviously Question Time and This Week but wasn't sure what else?

Isn't the challengers debate on? Or is that next week?

kle4 said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/586205512691232768

A fair point, to be sure. Although plenty of Tories, including those running the campaign strategy, seem to still believe the Cleggasm, temporary though it was, remains the largest single factor as to why they did not achieve a majority in 2010, so presumably if this is the new Cleggasm, those same Tories should remain despondent.

Be careful, the Cleggasm was a terrible case of premature excitement. The LDs lost seats that election, and the final result was very similar to the pre-debate polling. The Cleggasm was a transient polling phenomenon as ephemeral as the morning mist.

I got a fiver on Lab Majority at 42 earlier in the week. Good value but still unlikely. I cannot see Ed pulling it off, but could have most seats.

purseybear,

"Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories."

I suspect very few people run a deficit - that's the way to homelessness.

I have always thought Phillip Hammond is a possible Conservative leader, and Prime minister in the right circumstances , I said so previously.
Very safe pair of hands.
He did not want to repeat the words used by Fallon , on the daily politics, even though he had every opportunity when asked repeatedly by Andrew Neil.

old_labour said:

Dan Hodges writes that the Tories came top in today's campaign.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11525945/General-election-campaign-who-won-day-11.html

Well, winning the campaign but losing the election is not unheard of perhaps.

isam said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/586217830430937088

Got to ask, in spite of me being a UKIP supporter, who the hell is daft enough to be betting on UKIP being the largest party?

A smart arse would say it depends on the odds!

So, "it depends on the odds" haha

Or maybe they ARE odd?

Hahahaha!

chestnut said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

Yes because un-skewing polls has a great track record...

http://gawker.com/5945948/conservative-site-mitt-romney-is-winning-if-you-just-change-the-polls-to-make-him-win

A bit like Mili-bounces.

Mili doesn't need a bounce to win, however, feels like the most salient point, it would just make things easier for him.

Stereotomy said:

I haven't been around today. Have the nats here apologised for perpetuating the lies and bullying about that girl who asked the question in the scottish debate?

What are you wittering about you dunderheided halfwit

As an aside, I have an inkling Labour appearing likely to win might be beneficial to the Tories in LD/Tory marginals

kle4

"He doesn't say anything about people who spend the past 5 years mocking Ed M though."

Presumably he spends the next five years mocking him too.

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Danny565 said:

Yorkcity said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@jameschappers: Some interesting moves in our @ComResPolls latest telephone survey, out at 10pm

Streak of Lab leads about to be broken, then.

If you are in the red team which I doubt, I would hate to have you anywhere near the dressing room,the players would go over the white line already defeated.

Southam at least has an excuse as a spurs supporter and a terrible tipster to boot.
He gets very election wrong from the USA to the Scottish referendum.

Pessimism is my way of not getting let down if it doesn't work out.

Also, the weekend just gone I predicted no more Lab leads during the campaign, so i think I should take over the PB Wooden Spoon for worst tipster

To be honest Danny , this election is the hardest one I remember to predict.

I know one thing though telling people they are now better off than they were in 2010 is a sad joke for many.
Most people can feel in their water, that the system that crashed allover the world in 2008,still has the capacity to do it again, with banks still to big to fail especially in the UK.

Noticed Mr Smithson getting excited with all his post today,I wonder why ;-)

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Purseybear said:

TheWatcher said:

Purseybear said:

kle4 said:

Purseybear said:

suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
.

Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.

Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.

'Every household in Britain' - I doubt it. Most people aren't that stupid.

Most people don't have the choice.

See this is where the tories are a million miles from ordinary voters

Most people do have the choice. My income is nothing special and my wife's not working since we had a baby but we have always cut our cloth according to our income and save for a rainy day. I've as a rule saved some income on every payday since I was 17 and on minimum wage.

People have choices. Anyone who smokes, drinks, gambles, buys drugs, eats takeaway food or eats out at a restaurant etc is making a choice. Running a surplus for a rainy day is the sane way to run your finances.

really not convinced that Ed is attacking the rich.. Cracking down on tax dodging and some trifling changes to employment rights. Once upon a time the top rate of tax was 95% and the unions controlled nationalised industries. The rich survived that period so I'm sure they can survive 5 years of Ed

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Won't all politicos do the same.

I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.

Purseybear said:

kle4 said:

Purseybear said:

suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
.

Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.

Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.

We're not 'top Tories', and we do not run a deficit. In fact, we're likely to pay off the remainder of our mortgage this year, so we'll be debt-free. All because we're stingy gits who don't spend a great deal. And we're managing on one (albeit reasonable) salary.

And the country is not a household budget.

Try again.

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.

puzzledinhove said:

Once upon a time the top rate of tax was 95% and the unions controlled nationalised industries. The rich survived that period so I'm sure they can survive 5 years of Ed

Indeed. The terror in some quarters on both sides of the divide when it looks like 'the other lot' will get in is quite ridiculous most of the time. Maybe in 1979 there was a credible case that another Labour term would have done deep long-term harm to the country, but most of the time it's one modestly good politician against another. The worst was the 2008 Mayoral Election, where both sides seemed convinced London wouldn't still be standing after 4 years of the other.

JosiasJessop said:

Purseybear said:

kle4 said:

Purseybear said:

suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
.

Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.

Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.

We're not 'top Tories', and we do not run a deficit. In fact, we're likely to pay off the remainder of our mortgage this year, so we'll be debt-free. All because we're stingy gits who don't spend a great deal. And we're managing on one (albeit reasonable) salary.

And the country is not a household budget.

Try again.

But are you happy

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Won't all politicos do the same.

I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.

You won't find any argument from me. The Tories have been politically naive over the last couple of days. They need to give the country something positive a vision of Britain that people can look forwards to. Last time Dave was pimping his big society vision, it may not have been my cup of tea, but it was at least something. This time they are too bogged down in facts and statistics which just turns people off, plus a bunch of negative attacks on Ed which, again, just turns people off.

The Tories are missing Steve Hilton big time IMO.

Whatever people say about Labour and Ed, he is still giving people a vision of Britain, a poorer but fairer country where the wealthy are less so, but his 35% are comfortable with that and they don't seem to care that it means more taxes for everyone else and the Tories are doing literally nothing to give an opposing vision of wealth creation and positive capitalism. I said it some time last year, but the Tories seem to be scared of being capitalist and they are running away from wealth creation. It is a very big mistake. Yes social media will howl and whine if Dave and George come out in favour of it, but they will do that whatever the weather. Middle England wants wealth creation, Dave needs to offer it.

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.

As soon as the exit polls confirm the Tories are behind I'm backing Boris at any reasonable odds. Not really worth doing now on the off chance that the Tories may still be in government.

SquareRoot said:

If Ed gets into No 10 he is going to find it a lot harder peddling his loony policies in No 10 than out of..

I have always thought that people expecting a radical Ed M in No.10 would be surprised. Things are not flexible enough to allow that, and a seasoned political animal like Ed knows that I am sure.

As such, he'll probably not be a disaster as PM either, merely kind of crappy, which is all most of us hope for from our PMs I think,

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Won't all politicos do the same.

I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.

Call me old fashioned but driving the British economy into a brick wall while killing millions of innocents sort of sticks in my mind as "an absolute disgrace"

Hey what do I know though I just have to pick up the tab left by the loony left.

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Won't all politicos do the same.

I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.

Disgrace , not really , but inept and following the wrong strategy , yes .

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.

Oh please God no.

Another southern Oxbridge numpty's about the last thing the Conservatives need.

Boris is utterly the wrong person to be PM. I'd campaign against him, and I've never campaigned.

Although I actually quite like him.

MarkSenior said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Won't all politicos do the same.

I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.

Disgrace , not really , but inept and following the wrong strategy , yes .

Agree,just like the tory campaign so far.

JosiasJessop said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Won't all politicos do the same.

I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.

But with a hint of truth in it. Labour's campaign has been, if anything, worse.

But I want to hear from the Lib Dems. Please...?

In what way has it been worse, Labour are up in the polls since the start and have two big leads today. Their campaign has been very, very good so far. It may not appeal to me or you, but to their 35% it has struck all of the right notes.

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Won't all politicos do the same.

I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.

So in your view its perfectly acceptable to damage the country and the economy as "all politicos do the same" - but mudslinging is an "absolute disgrace".

Think you have your priorities backwards there.

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.

It's a bit odd that Boris should appeal to Kippers given that he's far more fanatical about the EU and immigration than Cameron is...

Which is why the Kippers won't be flocking anywhere. The Kipper numbers will no doubt be boosted every time Boris opens his mouth and spouts some of his usual rubbish.

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Won't all politicos do the same.

I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.

But with a hint of truth in it. Labour's campaign has been, if anything, worse.

But I want to hear from the Lib Dems. Please...?

In what way has it been worse, Labour are up in the polls since the start and have two big leads today. Their campaign has been very, very good so far. It may not appeal to me or you, but to their 35% it has struck all of the right notes.

Worse in terms of truthfulness and nastiness.

And yes, that includes today's events.

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/586230118919446528

Oh my God... you're linking a tweet from there?

Invite back the real thing instead

kle4 said:

SquareRoot said:

If Ed gets into No 10 he is going to find it a lot harder peddling his loony policies in No 10 than out of..

I have always thought that people expecting a radical Ed M in No.10 would be surprised. Things are not flexible enough to allow that, and a seasoned political animal like Ed knows that I am sure.

As such, he'll probably not be a disaster as PM either, merely kind of crappy, which is all most of us hope for from our PMs I think,

More terrifyingly, he could be really good...

Moses_ said:

Look

We are going to get an Ed clusterfuck government

Anyone with any shrewd intellect will have already and certainly now be calculating how to steer clear of the final Labour catastrophe.

To any lefties I worked fecking hard for my skills and my money, my business and those I do employ.

I am not ever again going to let Labour use that money in a public urinal.

Exodus?

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Won't all politicos do the same.

I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.

But with a hint of truth in it. Labour's campaign has been, if anything, worse.

But I want to hear from the Lib Dems. Please...?

In what way has it been worse, Labour are up in the polls since the start and have two big leads today. Their campaign has been very, very good so far. It may not appeal to me or you, but to their 35% it has struck all of the right notes.

Worse in terms of truthfulness and nastiness.

And yes, that includes today's events.

It doesn't matter. Labour strategists have realised that their 35% want to be sold this vision and it will get their man into Number 10. Very much like the SNP supporters who didn't care about the economic reality of an independent Scotland, Labour's 35% don't care that all of the changes they are proposing means higher taxes for everyone and fewer jobs. They want that society of higher taxes and more money for public services.

The worst thing for the tories is they have lost the initiative. They have lost the momentum.

It will be very difficult to get it back.

MarkSenior said:

SquareRoot said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

weejonnie said:

puzzledinhove said:

Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

Won't all politicos do the same.

I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.

You are just parroting what Ed said..

Says Polly , one of our pb tory budgies .

..still smarting from that bet on the Euro you lost..

Philip_Thompson said:

puzzledinhove said:

really not convinced that Ed is attacking the rich.. Cracking down on tax dodging and some trifling changes to employment rights. Once upon a time the top rate of tax was 95% and the unions controlled nationalised industries. The rich survived that period so I'm sure they can survive 5 years of Ed

No the rich didn't survive that period, the rich emigrated and took their money with them - paying no taxes to the UK.

Even famous left-wing idols like John Lennon emigrated away from the UK removing all taxes with them.

bollox

taffys said:

Indeed, the Conservatives need to win seats north of Watford.

The ashcroft marginals polls suggest they are able to win big time in the Midlands. And parts of the North too.

CON is going to hold Warwick, Leamington and Loughborough meanwhile losing Sherwood, Broxtowe, Warwickshire North, Nuneaton in the Midlands. Being a Coventry boy it's an area I've followed quite closely.