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It’s one poll but… – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,358
edited March 3 in General
It’s one poll but… – politicalbetting.com

? In today’s Playbook, will there be a Starmer bounce for his handling of Ukraine? Our polling over the weekend suggests maybe early signs of one. Starmer overtakes Farage, on who would make the best PM up 6pts from last week, though none of them still leads.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 29,397
    First
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566
    I think cost of living concerns will continue, but people will be more inclined to sacrifice if they feel the Russia threat is real and so we need to put money into defence.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 550
    How long before we see Starmer (or Farage or Kemi) doing this?


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    Battlebus said:

    How long before we see Starmer (or Farage or Kemi) doing this?


    Please - no
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    OT but someone just pointed this out to me.

    Someone just won £100,000 on the premium bonds, with a total holding of just £14 from 1977. My guess is that some 48-year-old is thanking granny for the once-fashionable (in working class circles) present of premium bonds for new babies.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    edited March 3
    Battlebus said:

    How long before we see Starmer (or Farage or Kemi) doing this?


    Only if it's in Kursk.
    Otherwise doesn't count.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,295
    edited March 3
    Yep. Starmer's luck continues. Wish I'd actually backed Labour at 2.9 for the GE rather than merely opining it was value. Under 2.5 now. And still value imo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    Farage down and Starmer and Badenoch up on that poll.

    Cost of living costs partly down to Trump's incoming tariffs anyway, though Labour will be responsible for the tax rises
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766
    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    edited March 3
    In the subject of recent ambassadorial freelancing, "unequivocal support" for Trump's ultimatum directly contradicts the No10 plan.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/mar/03/peter-mandelson-ukraine-donald-trump-volodymyr-zelenskyy-keir-starmer-uk-politics-live
    ..The summit yesterday agreed some important steps forward, and the prime minister outlined a four-step plan there, both in terms of keeping military aid flowing to Ukraine and increasing the economic pressure on Russia, that any lasting peace must ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and security, third, in the event of a peace deal we will keep boosting Ukraine’s own defensive capabilities, and finally that we will go further to develop a coalition of willing to defend a deal in Ukraine and guarantee the peace...

    Trump very clearly wants to relax economic pressure on Russia, and expects Ukraine to sign his deal without any security commitment at all.

    This wasn't '4D chess' or similar nonsense. It was just a misstep.

    Also:
    No 10 says Starmer not watering down security guarantee he's seeking from US for Ukraine peace deal
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    Battlebus said:

    How long before we see Starmer (or Farage or Kemi) doing this?


    Surely the post photo humiliation should deter all of them (except perhaps Farage who would look at home on a Russian tank).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
    Trump still wants “a deal”.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766
    Gardenwalker said:

    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
    Trump still wants “a deal”.
    What will he offer to get that deal? Not clear to me.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Assuming they are genuine constituents (which seems very likely), this could well be Trump's basket of deplorables moment.

    Trump dismisses GOP town hall backlash as result of ‘paid troublemakers’
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5172714-trump-dismisses-gop-town-hall-backlash/
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    Today on PB I learnt from @kinabalu and @Leon that only cretins are true patriots.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,168
    Gardenwalker said:

    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
    Trump still wants “a deal”.
    Should we have made "a deal" with Bwana Hitler in 1940?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Very similar concerns to those in Europe.
    And similar levels of trust in the US.

    S. Korea faces rising concerns over alliance with US following Trump-Zelenskyy spat

    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=393311
    .."As the South Korea-U.S. alliance remains the cornerstone for deterring North Korea's nuclear threats, maintaining its stability will likely require Seoul to meet certain U.S. demands, such as increasing investments in America," Doo said.

    At the same time, he urged South Korea to diversify its security partnerships by strengthening cooperation with like-minded nations, including NATO members. It should also manage relations with neighboring countries such as China and Russia, both of which can play key roles in addressing North Korea's nuclear threats.

    "But most importantly, South Korea must strengthen its own defense capabilities," Doo said. "In an era of growing unpredictability in geopolitics, the nation must enhance its ability to produce its own weapons and build military strength for modern warfare."

    Lim Eul-chul, head of the research office at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies (IFES), suggested that the Trump-Zelenskyy shouting match may have been partially staged by the U.S. to publicly humiliate the Ukrainian leader and increase pressure on Kyiv.

    "There's no guarantee that Trump, viewing diplomacy as transactional, won't treat South Korea the same way," Lim said...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    PM statement in the Commons at 3.30pm
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    Nigelb said:

    Assuming they are genuine constituents (which seems very likely), this could well be Trump's basket of deplorables moment.

    Trump dismisses GOP town hall backlash as result of ‘paid troublemakers’
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5172714-trump-dismisses-gop-town-hall-backlash/

    I do quite like this tradition of Town Halls in America. Few of our own MPs are so accessible. Constituency surgeries are so bogged down with social work and one to ones rather than collective meetings.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    ...
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    PM statement in the Commons at 3.30pm

    Let's hope Farage has a good question on yesterday's small boat arrivals to trip up Starmer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Fuck me, DeSantis seems about to copy California's Prop 13.
    Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.

    1/ You don’t own your home.

    You’re renting it from the government—forever.

    Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.

    @RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.

    Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
    https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
    Trump still wants “a deal”.
    Should we have made "a deal" with Bwana Hitler in 1940?
    You are Lord Halifax and I claim my five pounds.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,049
    Gardenwalker said:

    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
    Trump still wants “a deal”.
    I'm sure he does. But his cards (and it would be silly to say he has no cards) are quite a bit less valuable now than they were on Thursday. Alternatively, America's cards have been declining in relative value for a while, and now everyone has noticed. Which in a free market, amounts to pretty much the same thing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    edited March 3
    I see Badenoch is flat-lining. 12% as best PM is only half of what the Tory party is polling, so the other half of Tory voters are not impressed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,989
    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
    Trump still wants “a deal”.
    What will he offer to get that deal? Not clear to me.

    As my granny used to say "I want never gets..."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,295
    kamski said:

    Today on PB I learnt from @kinabalu and @Leon that only cretins are true patriots.

    Yes, typically awkward midwit v nitwit exchange there.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    Foxy said:

    I see Badenoch is flat-lining. 12% as best PM is only half of what the Tory party is polling, so the other half of Tory voters are not impressed.

    She's had a decent few days. Economy of comment has worked well.

    Silence did well for Farage too until he opened his mouth this morning and it all came spewing out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    Nigelb said:

    Fuck me, DeSantis seems about to copy California's Prop 13.
    Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.

    1/ You don’t own your home.

    You’re renting it from the government—forever.

    Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.

    @RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.

    Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
    https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396

    What's the meta-issue with shifting property tax to a sales tax ?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,663
    Starmer will see a big boost IMHO.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Stuartinromford said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
    Trump still wants “a deal”.
    I'm sure he does. But his cards (and it would be silly to say he has no cards) are quite a bit less valuable now than they were on Thursday. Alternatively, America's cards have been declining in relative value for a while, and now everyone has noticed. Which in a free market, amounts to pretty much the same thing.
    And Europe handed Ukraine some cards.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    Stuartinromford said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
    Trump still wants “a deal”.
    I'm sure he does. But his cards (and it would be silly to say he has no cards) are quite a bit less valuable now than they were on Thursday. Alternatively, America's cards have been declining in relative value for a while, and now everyone has noticed. Which in a free market, amounts to pretty much the same thing.
    The bones of a deal with Ukraine and Europe are pretty coherent, if not necessarily straightfoward.

    It’s still not obvious what Putin is offering.
    Russia has not budged from maximalist demands, despite a string of U.S. concessions, the latest being Hegseth’s ordering the Pentagon to cease cyber operations against Russia.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Starmer will see a big boost IMHO.

    Or a big boot. It's one or the other.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    "ITAR-free" is renewed as an arms sales pitch.
    Well done, stable genius.

    French diplomacy in action. With the transfer of the first batch of Mirage 2000-5Fs, the Ukrainian Air Force will have more pilots to rain down @SAFRAN’s ITAR-free AASM Hammer-250 bombs, which are insensitive to jamming, on the Russian aggressor.

    France is set to increase its production of these bombs in 2025...
    https://x.com/aidefranceukr/status/1896383939473805580
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    More in Common would have asked the VI question, so where's that?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,989
    Gardenwalker said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
    Trump still wants “a deal”.
    I'm sure he does. But his cards (and it would be silly to say he has no cards) are quite a bit less valuable now than they were on Thursday. Alternatively, America's cards have been declining in relative value for a while, and now everyone has noticed. Which in a free market, amounts to pretty much the same thing.
    The bones of a deal with Ukraine and Europe are pretty coherent, if not necessarily straightfoward.

    It’s still not obvious what Putin is offering.
    Russia has not budged from maximalist demands, despite a string of U.S. concessions, the latest being Hegseth’s ordering the Pentagon to cease cyber operations against Russia.
    Maybe Putin has quietly ceased cyber-operation against America?

    Yeah, right...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    OT but someone just pointed this out to me.

    Someone just won £100,000 on the premium bonds, with a total holding of just £14 from 1977. My guess is that some 48-year-old is thanking granny for the once-fashionable (in working class circles) present of premium bonds for new babies.

    One of today's million pound winners bought a single 100 pound bond less than 2 years ago.

    Jammy git
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    @MarqueeMark what was you nickname for Starmer's fence sitting in opposition? Perhaps you need to dust that down. His arse must be sore and full of splinters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fuck me, DeSantis seems about to copy California's Prop 13.
    Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.

    1/ You don’t own your home.

    You’re renting it from the government—forever.

    Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.

    @RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.

    Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
    https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396

    What's the meta-issue with shifting property tax to a sales tax ?
    A tax on wealth to a much more regressive tax on consumption.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    Scott_xP said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    OT but someone just pointed this out to me.

    Someone just won £100,000 on the premium bonds, with a total holding of just £14 from 1977. My guess is that some 48-year-old is thanking granny for the once-fashionable (in working class circles) present of premium bonds for new babies.

    One of today's million pound winners bought a single 100 pound bond less than 2 years ago.

    Jammy git
    Still waiting for my big payday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    edited March 3
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fuck me, DeSantis seems about to copy California's Prop 13.
    Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.

    1/ You don’t own your home.

    You’re renting it from the government—forever.

    Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.

    @RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.

    Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
    https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396

    What's the meta-issue with shifting property tax to a sales tax ?
    The devil will be in the details. It's possible Florida will avoid the worst consequences.
    But getting rid of property taxes has a baleful history in the US.

    Prop 13 was Reagan era, of course, when CA was still Republican. And the Florida initiative is coming from a similar perspective.

    The meta issue is that property taxes are relatively progressive, and sales taxes regressive.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,663
    Some very good announcements on ending leasehold IMHO
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    Fuck!

    Is this the pre cursor to a declaration of war.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    I confess even I felt a twinge of patriotic loyalty to Starmer when he headed off to the White House (even tho I loathe him), and also a sense of gratification that Britain was playing a pivotal role in gearing up Europe for the retooling of our defences (which, indeed, we must do)

    It's kind of pathetic, why should I get personal emotional satisfaction that this adenoidal berk Starmer is hosting lots of other silly people in Lancaster House, and yet a bit of me likes it, in a childish way

    So I believe it will give Skyr a boost and the boost might last for a while. And it does put Reform in a tight spot

    But I don't think it will last,a few months at most - too much can and will go wrong. This is absolutely not a Falklands Moment, far from it. We also have the Chagos Surrender being announced this week, which is unideal for Labour, to put it mildly
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Is this new?


    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time


    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    edited March 3
    I see Bild has an editorial attacking Merz for his U-turn on financing more defence spending through debt. Bild thinks it should be financed (if at all) by tax increases and/or social security cuts.

    Axel Springer CEO, billionaire Mathias Döpfner is a friend of Peter Thiel, a supporter of Donald Trump, once said "Zionism über alles", and is in favour of climate change on the grounds that warmer periods are always good for humanity.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397
    I’ve just seen this article

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg885lxd3jo

    Can I suggest that if we don’t have a law making firms fully responsible for the consequences of them revealing personal details Parliament should be doing so immediately.

    Oh and I have no quirms in saying both EDF and O2 should both be paying the full costs of the losses.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835
    Nigelb said:

    Fuck me, DeSantis seems about to copy California's Prop 13.
    Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.

    1/ You don’t own your home.

    You’re renting it from the government—forever.

    Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.

    @RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.

    Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
    https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396

    California's Prop 13 is one of the most retarded pieces of legislation in history.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fuck me, DeSantis seems about to copy California's Prop 13.
    Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.

    1/ You don’t own your home.

    You’re renting it from the government—forever.

    Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.

    @RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.

    Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
    https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396

    What's the meta-issue with shifting property tax to a sales tax ?
    A tax on wealth to a much more regressive tax on consumption.
    What I love about the tweet is that the person complaining afterwards doesn’t see the difference between business rates and personal ones.

    America really is a completely different place to us
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,989
    Mexicanpete said:

    Fuck!

    Is this the pre cursor to a declaration of war.

    Against Reform? Hopefully.

    Is there a coalition of the willing I can join?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,989
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fuck me, DeSantis seems about to copy California's Prop 13.
    Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.

    1/ You don’t own your home.

    You’re renting it from the government—forever.

    Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.

    @RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.

    Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
    https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396

    What's the meta-issue with shifting property tax to a sales tax ?
    A tax on wealth to a much more regressive tax on consumption.
    America really is a completely different place to us
    Just rejoice at that news...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    edited March 3
    Good from Ed. Slaps down Mandy. Good point scoring from Ed.

    Starmer " I disagree with the Hon Gentleman on our over reliance on US support against Putin. And in other news I am organising an army of the willing amongst our European allies".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    I wonder if we might see a period where Sir Sheer Wanker OUT-performs his party in VI. He can spend the next few days or weeks looking all prime ministerial and being sombre but determined in front of 783 Union Jacks....but his party is still despised, has zero policies, and is staffed by the comical (Lammy) to the clueless (Reeves) down to many who are simply contemptible. And they have no idea what to do about the creaking economy

    So Kieijjerr Starmer might see his personal polling rise, even as Labour languish?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    Leon said:

    I wonder if we might see a period where Sir Sheer Wanker OUT-performs his party in VI. He can spend the next few days or weeks looking all prime ministerial and being sombre but determined in front of 783 Union Jacks....but his party is still despised, has zero policies, and is staffed by the comical (Lammy) to the clueless (Reeves) down to many who are simply contemptible. And they have no idea what to do about the creaking economy

    So Kieijjerr Starmer might see his personal polling rise, even as Labour languish?

    Don't forget we have the ready known fact that getting 'boots on the ground' in foreign conflicts tends to improve polling in the long run too.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,658
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fuck me, DeSantis seems about to copy California's Prop 13.
    Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.

    1/ You don’t own your home.

    You’re renting it from the government—forever.

    Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.

    @RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.

    Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
    https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396

    What's the meta-issue with shifting property tax to a sales tax ?
    The devil will be in the details. It's possible Florida will avoid the worst consequences.
    But getting rid of property taxes has a baleful history in the US.

    Prop 13 was Reagan era, of course, when CA was still Republican. And the Florida initiative is coming from a similar perspective.
    The average American voter thinks that the government is too big but that it should spend more money on everything it does. This explains a decent share of the political chaos of this country.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jonathancohn.bsky.social/post/3ljg7crywo22l

    The chart from that post is quite something.



    I wonder if you would get the same result if the question were framed something like: Do you think the government should tax you more in order to increase spending...etc.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fuck me, DeSantis seems about to copy California's Prop 13.
    Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.

    1/ You don’t own your home.

    You’re renting it from the government—forever.

    Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.

    @RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.

    Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
    https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396

    California's Prop 13 is one of the most retarded pieces of legislation in history.
    Kicked off the Reagan revolution, too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Tulsi, celebrating Trump's indefatigability.

    Moments after being shown polling indicating that Trump’s favorable position toward Putin is out of step with American public opinion, Tulsi Gabbard asserts that Trump’s stance is being “celebrated” by the American public
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896302934586990702
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    I wonder if we might see a period where Sir Sheer Wanker OUT-performs his party in VI. He can spend the next few days or weeks looking all prime ministerial and being sombre but determined in front of 783 Union Jacks....but his party is still despised, has zero policies, and is staffed by the comical (Lammy) to the clueless (Reeves) down to many who are simply contemptible. And they have no idea what to do about the creaking economy

    So Kieijjerr Starmer might see his personal polling rise, even as Labour languish?

    Don't forget we have the ready known fact that getting 'boots on the ground' in foreign conflicts tends to improve polling in the long run too.
    Are you being sarcastic?!

    Hard to tell. Partly because I have no idea if polling IS improved by soldiers arriving in foreign parts. My sense is that it surely depends on the context, no? Falklands, yay, go for it, Cry Harry Kane for God, England and St George, but Iraq? Kabul? No
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    ...
    Leon said:

    Is this new?


    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time


    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116

    Oh dear.

    And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    I wonder if we might see a period where Sir Sheer Wanker OUT-performs his party in VI. He can spend the next few days or weeks looking all prime ministerial and being sombre but determined in front of 783 Union Jacks....but his party is still despised, has zero policies, and is staffed by the comical (Lammy) to the clueless (Reeves) down to many who are simply contemptible. And they have no idea what to do about the creaking economy

    So Kieijjerr Starmer might see his personal polling rise, even as Labour languish?

    Don't forget we have the ready known fact that getting 'boots on the ground' in foreign conflicts tends to improve polling in the long run too.
    Are you being sarcastic?!

    Hard to tell. Partly because I have no idea if polling IS improved by soldiers arriving in foreign parts. My sense is that it surely depends on the context, no? Falklands, yay, go for it, Cry Harry Kane for God, England and St George, but Iraq? Kabul? No
    Yes, I was being. A swift victory like we had in the Falklands means SKS is 100% headed to re-election. Do we get that though ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,168
    Foxy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    I think Europe generally is hoping for the best with Trump and the USA because it doesn't have a thought through Plan B.

    But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
    Trump still wants “a deal”.
    Should we have made "a deal" with Bwana Hitler in 1940?
    You are Lord Halifax and I claim my five pounds.
    Not me! @Gardenwalker!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Is this new?


    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time


    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116

    Oh dear.

    And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
    I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling

    Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks

    Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly

    At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    edited March 3
    Who's having a good war?

    Ed 10/10
    Jenrick 10/10
    Kemi 9/10
    Starmer 6/10 ( For his chaos on Thursday, and the fact that Trump is about ( later today) to cancel all military aid to Ukraine)
    Priti 4/10
    Farage 0/10 I am just listening to Farage's mealy mouthed question, so can I give him a negative figure?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 550
    kamski said:

    Today on PB I learnt from @kinabalu and @Leon that only cretins are true patriots.

    Not very Christian.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fuck me, DeSantis seems about to copy California's Prop 13.
    Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.

    1/ You don’t own your home.

    You’re renting it from the government—forever.

    Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.

    @RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.

    Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
    https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396

    What's the meta-issue with shifting property tax to a sales tax ?
    The devil will be in the details. It's possible Florida will avoid the worst consequences.
    But getting rid of property taxes has a baleful history in the US.

    Prop 13 was Reagan era, of course, when CA was still Republican. And the Florida initiative is coming from a similar perspective.
    The average American voter thinks that the government is too big but that it should spend more money on everything it does. This explains a decent share of the political chaos of this country.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jonathancohn.bsky.social/post/3ljg7crywo22l

    The chart from that post is quite something.



    I wonder if you would get the same result if the question were framed something like: Do you think the government should tax you more in order to increase spending...etc.
    I suspect that cuts in all these areas to fund tax cuts for the 1% isn't what Joe Public in MAGA land had in mind.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    Mexicanpete said:

    Who's having a good war?

    Ed 10/10
    Jenrick 10/10
    Kemi 9/10
    Starmer 6/10 ( For his chaos on Thursday, and the fact that Trump is about ( later today) to cancel all military aid to Ukraine)
    Priti 4/10
    Farage 0/10 I am just listening to Farage's mealy mouthed question, so can I give him a negative figure?

    Surely Ed loses points for his opportunistic attacks on Mandelson?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,281
    Afternoon all :)

    I see someone was wittering on about having avoided the British winter - well, they aren't the only ones.

    Left on December 3rd, arrived in New Zealand on December 5th, left NZ on February 20th, arrived in UK on February 28th (via a six day stop in Singapore).

    Technically, before the PB pedants jump on this, I haven't avoided tthe entire British winter but I did avoid 88 days out of 90 or 97.8% of the British winter (if you accept "winter" runs from December 1st to February 28th inclusive).

    Now, having returned to glorious early spring sunshine, I am not deceived - winter will return to bite me (and by extension everyone else) on the behind. I have confidently predicted a cold spell on another forum and I do so here.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    williamglenn said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Who's having a good war?

    Ed 10/10
    Jenrick 10/10
    Kemi 9/10
    Starmer 6/10 ( For his chaos on Thursday, and the fact that Trump is about ( later today) to cancel all military aid to Ukraine)
    Priti 4/10
    Farage 0/10 I am just listening to Farage's mealy mouthed question, so can I give him a negative figure?

    Surely Ed loses points for his opportunistic attacks on Mandelson?
    Don't you believe he was right so to do? Mandy went rogue.

    Apparently Trump is about to announce all military aid to Ukraine is about to be curtailed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Is this new?


    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time


    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116

    Oh dear.

    And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
    It was a monthly tracking poll so pre Farage's trashing Zelensky today.

    More in Common had the Tories ahead only last week

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,658
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Is this new?


    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time


    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116

    Oh dear.

    And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
    I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling

    Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks

    Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly

    At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
    In a sense we are in a 'wait and see' period. Much liberal western comment more or less assumes that the USA is a lost cause to NATO and the various strategic western alliances, and has joined a different club - that of 'spheres of influence' superpowers. FWIW that's my view.

    From there, three possibilities arise for now: The USA is clearly kept in/brought back to its traditional post WWII role. Second, that it is soon agreed by all that USA is lost to the free western world alliances. Third, that a long term unresolved ambiguity is maintained - which is where we are now - unless and until sometimes breaks.

    Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time. The second is where I think we are heading but I hope I am wrong. The third reflects how the world often works, but would be sub-optimal.

    I wonder what others think.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    Just heard Starmer put down Farage

    It was excellent to see Farage humiliated
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Mexicanpete said:

    williamglenn said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Who's having a good war?

    Ed 10/10
    Jenrick 10/10
    Kemi 9/10
    Starmer 6/10 ( For his chaos on Thursday, and the fact that Trump is about ( later today) to cancel all military aid to Ukraine)
    Priti 4/10
    Farage 0/10 I am just listening to Farage's mealy mouthed question, so can I give him a negative figure?

    Surely Ed loses points for his opportunistic attacks on Mandelson?
    Don't you believe he was right so to do? Mandy went rogue.

    Apparently Trump is about to announce all military aid to Ukraine is about to be curtailed.
    It's either that or Canadian tariffs details.
    Perhaps both.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,632
    Mexicanpete said:

    Who's having a good war?

    Ed 10/10
    Jenrick 10/10
    Kemi 9/10
    Starmer 6/10 ( For his chaos on Thursday, and the fact that Trump is about ( later today) to cancel all military aid to Ukraine)
    Priti 4/10
    Farage 0/10 I am just listening to Farage's mealy mouthed question, so can I give him a negative figure?

    I'd rank Starmer higher and Ed lower, for the reason that it's considerably harder to actually be PM than to be the leader of the third party. There are far more compromises with the world as it is, rather than as you would like it to be, to be made
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,663
    Reform is the Putin Party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Cookie said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Who's having a good war?

    Ed 10/10
    Jenrick 10/10
    Kemi 9/10
    Starmer 6/10 ( For his chaos on Thursday, and the fact that Trump is about ( later today) to cancel all military aid to Ukraine)
    Priti 4/10
    Farage 0/10 I am just listening to Farage's mealy mouthed question, so can I give him a negative figure?

    I'd rank Starmer higher and Ed lower, for the reason that it's considerably harder to actually be PM than to be the leader of the third party. There are far more compromises with the world as it is, rather than as you would like it to be, to be made
    Davey gets to present some home truths about Trump, which Starmer is obliged to gloss over.
    And then has to hope Trump doesn't pull the rug from underneath him.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    williamglenn said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Who's having a good war?

    Ed 10/10
    Jenrick 10/10
    Kemi 9/10
    Starmer 6/10 ( For his chaos on Thursday, and the fact that Trump is about ( later today) to cancel all military aid to Ukraine)
    Priti 4/10
    Farage 0/10 I am just listening to Farage's mealy mouthed question, so can I give him a negative figure?

    Surely Ed loses points for his opportunistic attacks on Mandelson?
    Don't you believe he was right so to do? Mandy went rogue.

    Apparently Trump is about to announce all military aid to Ukraine is about to be curtailed.
    It's either that or Canadian tariffs details.
    Perhaps both.
    Why not all the stupid?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,054
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Reform is the Putin Party.

    Like the Republican Party in the US.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    Leon said:

    I wonder if we might see a period where Sir Sheer Wanker OUT-performs his party in VI. He can spend the next few days or weeks looking all prime ministerial and being sombre but determined in front of 783 Union Jacks....but his party is still despised, has zero policies, and is staffed by the comical (Lammy) to the clueless (Reeves) down to many who are simply contemptible. And they have no idea what to do about the creaking economy

    So Kieijjerr Starmer might see his personal polling rise, even as Labour languish?

    Don't underestimate David Lammy, or at least not until we have a clearer idea who is driving our current diplomacy and whether it is successful.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Headline of the day ?
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1896561062134358429
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    Two dead and 'multiple injured' after 'SUV' ploughs into crowd of people in German city
    https://www.lbc.co.uk/world-news/mannheim-multiple-casualties-suv-ploughs-into-crowd-germany/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    ...
    Nigelb said:

    Cookie said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Who's having a good war?

    Ed 10/10
    Jenrick 10/10
    Kemi 9/10
    Starmer 6/10 ( For his chaos on Thursday, and the fact that Trump is about ( later today) to cancel all military aid to Ukraine)
    Priti 4/10
    Farage 0/10 I am just listening to Farage's mealy mouthed question, so can I give him a negative figure?

    I'd rank Starmer higher and Ed lower, for the reason that it's considerably harder to actually be PM than to be the leader of the third party. There are far more compromises with the world as it is, rather than as you would like it to be, to be made
    Davey gets to present some home truths about Trump, which Starmer is obliged to gloss over.
    And then has to hope Trump doesn't pull the rug from underneath him.
    Ed has captured the zeitgeist. I accept Starmer has to be careful. Kemi and Jenrick have also been revelations.

    I bet Boris is spitting feathers that he supported Pincher. This would have been his Churchill moment. A moment he spent his entire life waiting for.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Let us hope he is wrong.
    We will know very soon.

    Kremlin Spokesman: “The new U.S. administration is rapidly reshaping foreign policy, and much of it aligns with our vision.”
    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1896559256255758795
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,989
    Nigelb said:

    Headline of the day ?
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1896561062134358429

    Any particular horse?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,740
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just heard Starmer put down Farage

    It was excellent to see Farage humiliated

    Starmer didn't even attempt to address any of his points, essentially called him a Putin appeaser.

    I almost felt sorry for him as he desperately nodded along. Painted himself into a corner.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,672
    The problem with foreign policy is that it rarely moves votes. If people can't pay their rent/mortgage/bills then that's what will motivate them, not good geopolitical strategy which to the government's credit they've been having a lot of success with.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,281
    Leon said:

    Is this new?

    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time

    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116

    Interesting - not the poll itself.

    Freshwater Strategy, who carried out the poll, are a new outfit and applying to become members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and this is their third poll for CIty AM.

    Neither of their previous polls seem to be referenced on Wikpedia but the tables are available via the company's own website.

    As for the current poll:

    https://www.cityam.com/reform-uk-overtakes-labour-in-city-am-poll-for-first-time/

    Reform 27%
    Labour 24%
    Conservative 23%
    Liberal Democrat 15%
    Greens 7%

    Hopefully we'll see the tables in the next few days.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Is this new?


    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time


    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116

    Oh dear.

    And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
    I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling

    Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks

    Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly

    At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
    I am a decent and fair minded voter, and I think Starmer needs the boot in his borrowed suit trouser clad behind before he further wrecks our country. The fact that he has stood by some union flags in the intervening period has not changed my view, and I would hope that the salt of the earth Reform voters will be similarly resistant to such weak-minded piffle.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    Nigelb said:

    Let us hope he is wrong.
    We will know very soon.

    Kremlin Spokesman: “The new U.S. administration is rapidly reshaping foreign policy, and much of it aligns with our vision.”
    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1896559256255758795

    Trump alignment and not appeasement? The axis of evil.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    algarkirk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Is this new?


    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time


    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116

    Oh dear.

    And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
    I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling

    Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks

    Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly

    At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
    In a sense we are in a 'wait and see' period. Much liberal western comment more or less assumes that the USA is a lost cause to NATO and the various strategic western alliances, and has joined a different club - that of 'spheres of influence' superpowers. FWIW that's my view.

    From there, three possibilities arise for now: The USA is clearly kept in/brought back to its traditional post WWII role. Second, that it is soon agreed by all that USA is lost to the free western world alliances. Third, that a long term unresolved ambiguity is maintained - which is where we are now - unless and until sometimes breaks.

    Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time. The second is where I think we are heading but I hope I am wrong. The third reflects how the world often works, but would be sub-optimal.

    I wonder what others think.
    I agre. Starmer and other senior politicians and leaders (such as Rutte) desperately want the first and in some cases are fooling themselves about the chances. I think the second is odds on. In fact I think it almost certain.

    What is impotrant is thta we use this opportunity to really sort out our own defence arrangments based on the idea that we will always have allies but they will vary in both commitment and ability/spending. I can see the US reengaiging to some extemnt after Trump is gone but I think we would be foolish to consider this only a blip and assume things will return to the way they were. I don't think we should want them to return to the way they were.

    I do think we should be planning to replace Five Eyes, weapons development/manufacturing and satellite systems currently controlled by the US with new systems and processes
    Rutte, TBF, made his reputation when keeping Trump on board with NATO last time around.
    You can understand why he's not keen to wake up to what's probably the new reality.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,989
    bondegezou said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Reform is the Putin Party.

    Like the Republican Party in the US.
    Not sure the Republican Party is a thing any more. It has been eaten from the inside by MAGA.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    Mexicanpete said:

    I bet Boris is spitting feathers that he supported Pincher. This would have been his Churchill moment. A moment he spent his entire life waiting for.

    Fuck him, and the donkey he rode in on
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    Scott_xP said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    I bet Boris is spitting feathers that he supported Pincher. This would have been his Churchill moment. A moment he spent his entire life waiting for.

    Fuck him, and the donkey he rode in on
    The donkey has surely suffered enough.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    Absolute fury at Starmer's "warmongering" from callers on LBC.

    "Putin isn't going to invade Britain, can't we learn from the lessons of Iraq?"
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,740
    The main BBC headline makes Starmer sound like a credulous fool: "Trump's commitment to peace in Ukraine is sincere".

    Technically, yes. I'm sure Trump would love to see a peace under Russian subjugation. But I think most people will take this to mean Starmer has deluded himself as to Trump's intentions.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Is this new?


    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time


    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116

    Oh dear.

    And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
    I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling

    Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks

    Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly

    At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
    I am a decent and fair minded voter, and I think Starmer needs the boot in his borrowed suit trouser clad behind before he further wrecks our country. The fact that he has stood by some union flags in the intervening period has not changed my view, and I would hope that the salt of the earth Reform voters will be similarly resistant to such weak-minded piffle.
    Support for Reform is support for Putin and Trump, and such support is not decent, fair minded, or in the tradition of our country

    Listen to the cross party support across the house apart from the ludicrous Farage and his mob
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    Nigelb said:

    Let us hope he is wrong.
    We will know very soon.

    Kremlin Spokesman: “The new U.S. administration is rapidly reshaping foreign policy, and much of it aligns with our vision.”
    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1896559256255758795

    To make a peace deal work, both sides need to believe that it's in their interests to stop fighting and a US-Russia rapprochement is probably a necessary component of that.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,959
    algarkirk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Is this new?


    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time


    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116

    Oh dear.

    And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
    I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling

    Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks

    Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly

    At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
    In a sense we are in a 'wait and see' period. Much liberal western comment more or less assumes that the USA is a lost cause to NATO and the various strategic western alliances, and has joined a different club - that of 'spheres of influence' superpowers. FWIW that's my view.

    From there, three possibilities arise for now: The USA is clearly kept in/brought back to its traditional post WWII role. Second, that it is soon agreed by all that USA is lost to the free western world alliances. Third, that a long term unresolved ambiguity is maintained - which is where we are now - unless and until sometimes breaks.

    Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time. The second is where I think we are heading but I hope I am wrong. The third reflects how the world often works, but would be sub-optimal.

    I wonder what others think.
    I agree with your analysis.
    "Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time".
    If he doesn't think it is possible, he is a very good actor at just playing for time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    edited March 3
    Eabhal said:

    The main BBC headline makes Starmer sound like a credulous fool: "Trump's commitment to peace in Ukraine is sincere".

    Technically, yes. I'm sure Trump would love to see a peace under Russian subjugation. But I think most people will take this to mean Starmer has deluded himself as to Trump's intentions.

    The BBC have been very hostile to Starmer's casually unclear support for Trump over the weekend. Kuennsberg was outraged at our behaviour towards Trump on one clip I saw.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301
    edited March 3
    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    Is this new?

    City A.M.
    @CityAM
    Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time

    https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116

    Interesting - not the poll itself.

    Freshwater Strategy, who carried out the poll, are a new outfit and applying to become members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and this is their third poll for CIty AM.

    Neither of their previous polls seem to be referenced on Wikpedia but the tables are available via the company's own website.

    As for the current poll:

    https://www.cityam.com/reform-uk-overtakes-labour-in-city-am-poll-for-first-time/

    Reform 27%
    Labour 24%
    Conservative 23%
    Liberal Democrat 15%
    Greens 7%

    Hopefully we'll see the tables in the next few days.
    Wikipedia's policy is BPC only.
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