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It’s one poll but… – politicalbetting.com
It’s one poll but… – politicalbetting.com
? In today’s Playbook, will there be a Starmer bounce for his handling of Ukraine? Our polling over the weekend suggests maybe early signs of one. Starmer overtakes Farage, on who would make the best PM up 6pts from last week, though none of them still leads.
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Someone just won £100,000 on the premium bonds, with a total holding of just £14 from 1977. My guess is that some 48-year-old is thanking granny for the once-fashionable (in working class circles) present of premium bonds for new babies.
Otherwise doesn't count.
Cost of living costs partly down to Trump's incoming tariffs anyway, though Labour will be responsible for the tax rises
But if Trump doesn't play ball, and he probably won't, they will need to sort out Plan B. Because there isn't a Plan A anymore.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/mar/03/peter-mandelson-ukraine-donald-trump-volodymyr-zelenskyy-keir-starmer-uk-politics-live
..The summit yesterday agreed some important steps forward, and the prime minister outlined a four-step plan there, both in terms of keeping military aid flowing to Ukraine and increasing the economic pressure on Russia, that any lasting peace must ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and security, third, in the event of a peace deal we will keep boosting Ukraine’s own defensive capabilities, and finally that we will go further to develop a coalition of willing to defend a deal in Ukraine and guarantee the peace...
Trump very clearly wants to relax economic pressure on Russia, and expects Ukraine to sign his deal without any security commitment at all.
This wasn't '4D chess' or similar nonsense. It was just a misstep.
Also:
No 10 says Starmer not watering down security guarantee he's seeking from US for Ukraine peace deal
Trump dismisses GOP town hall backlash as result of ‘paid troublemakers’
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5172714-trump-dismisses-gop-town-hall-backlash/
And similar levels of trust in the US.
S. Korea faces rising concerns over alliance with US following Trump-Zelenskyy spat
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=393311
.."As the South Korea-U.S. alliance remains the cornerstone for deterring North Korea's nuclear threats, maintaining its stability will likely require Seoul to meet certain U.S. demands, such as increasing investments in America," Doo said.
At the same time, he urged South Korea to diversify its security partnerships by strengthening cooperation with like-minded nations, including NATO members. It should also manage relations with neighboring countries such as China and Russia, both of which can play key roles in addressing North Korea's nuclear threats.
"But most importantly, South Korea must strengthen its own defense capabilities," Doo said. "In an era of growing unpredictability in geopolitics, the nation must enhance its ability to produce its own weapons and build military strength for modern warfare."
Lim Eul-chul, head of the research office at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies (IFES), suggested that the Trump-Zelenskyy shouting match may have been partially staged by the U.S. to publicly humiliate the Ukrainian leader and increase pressure on Kyiv.
"There's no guarantee that Trump, viewing diplomacy as transactional, won't treat South Korea the same way," Lim said...
Possibly the worst piece of state legislation in the last fifty years.
1/ You don’t own your home.
You’re renting it from the government—forever.
Property taxes are one of the most oppressive taxes in America.
@RonDeSantis wants to end them in Florida.
Here’s why that could be a game-changer...
https://x.com/JohnMTillman/status/1896554363985801396
Silence did well for Farage too until he opened his mouth this morning and it all came spewing out.
It’s still not obvious what Putin is offering.
Russia has not budged from maximalist demands, despite a string of U.S. concessions, the latest being Hegseth’s ordering the Pentagon to cease cyber operations against Russia.
Well done, stable genius.
French diplomacy in action. With the transfer of the first batch of Mirage 2000-5Fs, the Ukrainian Air Force will have more pilots to rain down @SAFRAN’s ITAR-free AASM Hammer-250 bombs, which are insensitive to jamming, on the Russian aggressor.
France is set to increase its production of these bombs in 2025...
https://x.com/aidefranceukr/status/1896383939473805580
Yeah, right...
Jammy git
But getting rid of property taxes has a baleful history in the US.
Prop 13 was Reagan era, of course, when CA was still Republican. And the Florida initiative is coming from a similar perspective.
The meta issue is that property taxes are relatively progressive, and sales taxes regressive.
Is this the pre cursor to a declaration of war.
It's kind of pathetic, why should I get personal emotional satisfaction that this adenoidal berk Starmer is hosting lots of other silly people in Lancaster House, and yet a bit of me likes it, in a childish way
So I believe it will give Skyr a boost and the boost might last for a while. And it does put Reform in a tight spot
But I don't think it will last,a few months at most - too much can and will go wrong. This is absolutely not a Falklands Moment, far from it. We also have the Chagos Surrender being announced this week, which is unideal for Labour, to put it mildly
https://bsky.app/profile/jonathancohn.bsky.social/post/3ljg7crywo22l
The chart from that post is quite something.
City A.M.
@CityAM
Reform UK overtakes Labour in City AM poll for first time
https://x.com/CityAM/status/1896587168362926116
Axel Springer CEO, billionaire Mathias Döpfner is a friend of Peter Thiel, a supporter of Donald Trump, once said "Zionism über alles", and is in favour of climate change on the grounds that warmer periods are always good for humanity.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg885lxd3jo
Can I suggest that if we don’t have a law making firms fully responsible for the consequences of them revealing personal details Parliament should be doing so immediately.
Oh and I have no quirms in saying both EDF and O2 should both be paying the full costs of the losses.
America really is a completely different place to us
Is there a coalition of the willing I can join?
Starmer " I disagree with the Hon Gentleman on our over reliance on US support against Putin. And in other news I am organising an army of the willing amongst our European allies".
So Kieijjerr Starmer might see his personal polling rise, even as Labour languish?
Moments after being shown polling indicating that Trump’s favorable position toward Putin is out of step with American public opinion, Tulsi Gabbard asserts that Trump’s stance is being “celebrated” by the American public
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896302934586990702
Hard to tell. Partly because I have no idea if polling IS improved by soldiers arriving in foreign parts. My sense is that it surely depends on the context, no? Falklands, yay, go for it, Cry Harry Kane for God, England and St George, but Iraq? Kabul? No
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
Ed 10/10
Jenrick 10/10
Kemi 9/10
Starmer 6/10 ( For his chaos on Thursday, and the fact that Trump is about ( later today) to cancel all military aid to Ukraine)
Priti 4/10
Farage 0/10 I am just listening to Farage's mealy mouthed question, so can I give him a negative figure?
I see someone was wittering on about having avoided the British winter - well, they aren't the only ones.
Left on December 3rd, arrived in New Zealand on December 5th, left NZ on February 20th, arrived in UK on February 28th (via a six day stop in Singapore).
Technically, before the PB pedants jump on this, I haven't avoided tthe entire British winter but I did avoid 88 days out of 90 or 97.8% of the British winter (if you accept "winter" runs from December 1st to February 28th inclusive).
Now, having returned to glorious early spring sunshine, I am not deceived - winter will return to bite me (and by extension everyone else) on the behind. I have confidently predicted a cold spell on another forum and I do so here.
Apparently Trump is about to announce all military aid to Ukraine is about to be curtailed.
More in Common had the Tories ahead only last week
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
From there, three possibilities arise for now: The USA is clearly kept in/brought back to its traditional post WWII role. Second, that it is soon agreed by all that USA is lost to the free western world alliances. Third, that a long term unresolved ambiguity is maintained - which is where we are now - unless and until sometimes breaks.
Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time. The second is where I think we are heading but I hope I am wrong. The third reflects how the world often works, but would be sub-optimal.
I wonder what others think.
It was excellent to see Farage humiliated
Perhaps both.
And then has to hope Trump doesn't pull the rug from underneath him.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1896561062134358429
https://www.lbc.co.uk/world-news/mannheim-multiple-casualties-suv-ploughs-into-crowd-germany/
What is important is that we use this opportunity to really sort out our own defence arrangments based on the idea that we will always have allies but they will vary in both commitment and ability/spending. I can see the US re-engaging to some extent after Trump is gone but I think we would be foolish to consider this only a blip and assume things will return to the way they were. I don't think we should want them to return to the way they were.
I do think we should be planning to replace Five Eyes, weapons development/manufacturing and satellite systems currently controlled by the US with new systems and processes
I bet Boris is spitting feathers that he supported Pincher. This would have been his Churchill moment. A moment he spent his entire life waiting for.
We will know very soon.
Kremlin Spokesman: “The new U.S. administration is rapidly reshaping foreign policy, and much of it aligns with our vision.”
https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1896559256255758795
I almost felt sorry for him as he desperately nodded along. Painted himself into a corner.
Freshwater Strategy, who carried out the poll, are a new outfit and applying to become members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and this is their third poll for CIty AM.
Neither of their previous polls seem to be referenced on Wikpedia but the tables are available via the company's own website.
As for the current poll:
https://www.cityam.com/reform-uk-overtakes-labour-in-city-am-poll-for-first-time/
Reform 27%
Labour 24%
Conservative 23%
Liberal Democrat 15%
Greens 7%
Hopefully we'll see the tables in the next few days.
You can understand why he's not keen to wake up to what's probably the new reality.
"Putin isn't going to invade Britain, can't we learn from the lessons of Iraq?"
Technically, yes. I'm sure Trump would love to see a peace under Russian subjugation. But I think most people will take this to mean Starmer has deluded himself as to Trump's intentions.
Listen to the cross party support across the house apart from the ludicrous Farage and his mob
"Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time".
If he doesn't think it is possible, he is a very good actor at just playing for time.