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It’s one poll but… – politicalbetting.com

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,318

    glw said:

    I suspect they can't believe no one is trying to stop them.

    Project 2025 seems incredibly well thought through, if totally batshit bonkers, so I'm guessing the pointy headed alt-right fundamentalists who actually put it together did wargame what would happen when the push-back begins and where it would come from.

    They must be staggered that so far it is only a few junior court judges and SNL.

    Congress and the courts have already failed to bring Trump to account. I expect this to end with violence, but I couldn't guess which side may win.
    Sadly, I think you are correct.

    I am so tired of reading stuff about when the Dems win back the House in 2026.

    Like this is going to be a normal season of swing back based on a free and fair election.
    This is where people extrapolate too far. What do you think is going to happen in 2026 to impede free and fair elections?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,289

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    "the USD will no longer be the reserve currency."

    What is the basis for this prediction?
    The deal was they underwrote global peace via NATO. Now they won't do that, US allies are entitled to trade in the most efficient currency. So are America's enemies
    This is very Eurocentric, and the Europeans already created a single currency with the intention of rivalling the dollar while this ‘deal’ was supposedly in operation.
    And now the euro will be part of the multilateral system.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    In the pub. Just shown my wife. Her conclusion was 'What a Pollock you are'. Just saying
    There's no need to huss to judgement.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254

    glw said:

    I suspect they can't believe no one is trying to stop them.

    Project 2025 seems incredibly well thought through, if totally batshit bonkers, so I'm guessing the pointy headed alt-right fundamentalists who actually put it together did wargame what would happen when the push-back begins and where it would come from.

    They must be staggered that so far it is only a few junior court judges and SNL.

    Congress and the courts have already failed to bring Trump to account. I expect this to end with violence, but I couldn't guess which side may win.
    Sadly, I think you are correct.

    I am so tired of reading stuff about when the Dems win back the House in 2026.

    Like this is going to be a normal season of swing back based on a free and fair election.
    They are shredding everything that governs federal elections, and campaigning, advertising, fund raising, foreign influence etc.

    Imagine Starmer going mad and taking control of the Boundary Commission, Electoral Commission, Ofcom, and more. Then telling the police, NCA, intelligence and security services, and Foreign Office to essentially stand down when it comes to protecting elections from foreign interference. Finally he decrees that all government law officers must take their lead from him. That's essentially what the Whitehouse is doing now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,672

    My bonus is 105% this year.
    (Which is good, for my rather miserly industry).

    So at least I can cling to that as Trump destroys everything that is sacred.

    Would you consider leaving the US and coming back here if it gets worse?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    biggles said:


    Congressman Brandon Gill

    @RepBrandonGill
    🚨 I’m introducing the GOLDEN AGE ACT to put President Donald J. Trump on the $100 bill.

    Let’s make history. 🔥

    https://x.com/RepBrandonGill/status/1896621137653911676

    Can you imagine a Labour MP doing that now or in 1998? Or a Tory doing it in Jan 2020 or 1984/87? It’s sheer lunacy.
    It's not enough to praise Trump - millions do that - they have to compete to show who loves him the most.

    It's incredibly powerful, and makes you wonder, if he does not try for a third term, what influence he will wield when he is no longer President.

    He retained the loyalty of the party even after January 6th and years between elections, quite unusual for the USA. No way that power just disappears in 2029, even if the successor is not someone with the name Trump.
    Could he run for Senate? Not sure of the rules?
    Make him Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, that definitely has happened before. Ok, he's not an experienced jurist like them, but let's be real, the politics is the most important criteria in selecting new justices, and they have clerks who can take care of the legal language in judgements for him.

    Make him Speaker of the House, then have a future GOP President and Vice-President resign (probably wouldn't work?)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015
    Presumably not a million miles away from his plan, and not one anyone else in the West would like had the USA not changed direction and the rest unable to take immediate action, but they'd take what they can get at this point.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    You're a connoisseur of autocrats, though,
    Humour is a matter of taste, and you've always had a soft spot for the fash-adjacent.

    I can certainly appreciate his rhetorical timing, in small doses, but he's about as funny as a well timed fart.
    I'm just bored of these halfwitted takes on Trump, and all things Trumpian

    He IS funny, it's actually part of his skillset. He can take the piss out of himself, he is also very good at a brutal, funny putdown

    Now, you don't HAVE to laugh. I'd have found it hard to laugh at a Hitler joke even if Adolf was as good as Eddie Izzard in his prime. But that viral, self regarding, cringey British screed about "Trump being utterly humourless" - predictably reiterated by classic centrist dad @kjh - is simply wince-worthy

    It also enables Trump, and empowers him, that his enemies are driven so mad by him they cannot see him clearly and accurately. That is to his advantage
    I don't deny your point.
    Just saying that I don't find his humour funny at all.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,562

    Reading the news I am beginning to think that NATO is finished.... America is going to pull out. I mean it is defunct anyway. Five eyes is finished. Nobody will share intelligence with the americans as it goes directly to moscow. But NATO won't even have stationary and letter heads anymore let alone a command structure and armies 🤷‍♂️

    This is an earthquake in international relations unfolding: europe and america just can't agree on ukraine and the republican magas yearn to get into bed with Russia and putin.

    What a time to be alive.

    I suspect that is a very astute observation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    When that gets brought up it really is a giveaway about someone's intentions. Ultimately it means that some nations are not allowed to have their own policies, yet it gets dressed up as some kind of shocking and underhanded thing that anyone would want to do that, or be aided to do it.

    In the eyes of much of the world, including the US President it would seem, Russia does still have a sphere of influence. Thank goodness the Baltics used the brief opportunity to get out of it, whereas poor Ukraine was too slow apparently and missed its chance.
    It's partly the Russian stronk! mentality. In the minds of many, Russia is still the USSR, with all its power. It is not; it is a fraction of its old self.

    (In fact, I'd strongly argue that it was never anywhere near as stronk as it liked to make out. One of the reasons it collapsed was the fact it constantly lied to itself about its own strength.)
    A lot of people inside and outside Russia seem to think they’re the USSR of 1945, and that their military performance in Ukraine matches that of 1943-45.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,289

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    What’s the mindset in Estonia on recent developments?
    Interesting question.
    The politicians are signing up for a much stronger Europe- what else can we do? The general population is preparing for war to come here. With Poland, Sweden and Finland, we think we can hold out.
    We are expecting the next blow. I too have been thinking about it. I've decided I'm not leaving. PTN XLO.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,777
    Trump confirms 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico start at midnight Eastern time tonight plus 10% tariffs on China
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871

    glw said:

    I suspect they can't believe no one is trying to stop them.

    Project 2025 seems incredibly well thought through, if totally batshit bonkers, so I'm guessing the pointy headed alt-right fundamentalists who actually put it together did wargame what would happen when the push-back begins and where it would come from.

    They must be staggered that so far it is only a few junior court judges and SNL.

    Congress and the courts have already failed to bring Trump to account. I expect this to end with violence, but I couldn't guess which side may win.
    Sadly, I think you are correct.

    I am so tired of reading stuff about when the Dems win back the House in 2026.

    Like this is going to be a normal season of swing back based on a free and fair election.
    This is where people extrapolate too far. What do you think is going to happen in 2026 to impede free and fair elections?
    There are many routes, if you are not concerned with legality (or have the legal process behind you...). Just look at what Putin's done over the last twenty years to 'serve' more than the legally mandated two four-year terms. He has used several tricks: handing the presidency over to his puppet Medvedev; increasing the term length from four to six years, and 'zeroing' the number of times he had been president.

    Trump and the GOP could attempt anything like this. The question then becomes who would be in a position to stop them. I doubt the Supreme Court will be the same in 2028.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    They understand it. They just think more places being free and democratic was a mistake, as it gave Putin 'reason' to be upset.

    Even some non-fools say it sometimes!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015

    Reading the news I am beginning to think that NATO is finished.... America is going to pull out. I mean it is defunct anyway. Five eyes is finished. Nobody will share intelligence with the americans as it goes directly to moscow. But NATO won't even have stationary and letter heads anymore let alone a command structure and armies 🤷‍♂️

    This is an earthquake in international relations unfolding: europe and america just can't agree on ukraine and the republican magas yearn to get into bed with Russia and putin.

    What a time to be alive.

    I suspect that is a very astute observation.
    And a terrifying one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    The efforts to deify Trumpski have to happen now, cos in a year he will be less popular than Ebola (which is making a comeback, thanks to the Chief Fukwit and his Inbetweeners)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188
    edited March 3
    I hope those wankers who said Trump would be better for Ukraine than Biden/Harris are feeling good tonight.

    US Govt has quietly begun to shut down desperately needed arms to Ukraine, @WSJ reports tonight.

    Begs the question, was Friday's Oval Office blow up orchestrated as an excuse to do what Trump/Vance have always wanted to do?


    https://x.com/tnewtondunn/status/1896653114243207313

    U.S. Hitting Brakes on Flow of Arms to Ukraine

    Military financing has been stopped, and officials are meeting to consider suspending another type of assistance


    https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-hitting-brakes-on-flow-of-arms-to-ukraine-980a71d1
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,655

    glw said:

    I suspect they can't believe no one is trying to stop them.

    Project 2025 seems incredibly well thought through, if totally batshit bonkers, so I'm guessing the pointy headed alt-right fundamentalists who actually put it together did wargame what would happen when the push-back begins and where it would come from.

    They must be staggered that so far it is only a few junior court judges and SNL.

    Congress and the courts have already failed to bring Trump to account. I expect this to end with violence, but I couldn't guess which side may win.
    Sadly, I think you are correct.

    I am so tired of reading stuff about when the Dems win back the House in 2026.

    Like this is going to be a normal season of swing back based on a free and fair election.
    This is where people extrapolate too far. What do you think is going to happen in 2026 to impede free and fair elections?
    Go back about 10 days and ask whether what has happened in the last 10 days was feasible? I think election rigging/cancelling would be child's play to this bunch. It's only taken them a week to abolish NATO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015
    Scott_xP said:

    The efforts to deify Trumpski have to happen now, cos in a year he will be less popular than Ebola (which is making a comeback, thanks to the Chief Fukwit and his Inbetweeners)

    No one tell him Roman Emperors were sometimes declared to be gods.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Scott_xP said:

    The efforts to deify Trumpski have to happen now, cos in a year he will be less popular than Ebola (which is making a comeback, thanks to the Chief Fukwit and his Inbetweeners)

    But we know less about it and can’t monitor it as well. Yay…
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    edited March 3

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The efforts to deify Trumpski have to happen now, cos in a year he will be less popular than Ebola (which is making a comeback, thanks to the Chief Fukwit and his Inbetweeners)

    No one tell him Roman Emperors were sometimes declared to be gods.
    No blasphemy on St Donald’s Day, which this year falls on a Trumpsay, in between Sunday and Monday.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 561
    Trump and the MAGAs are planning the mar-a-lago accords. Forcing short term bond holders to accept 100 year bonds... Basically a debt default.... if this happens it will be pandemonium.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-cant-stop-talking-about-the-mar-a-lago-accord-heres-how-the-currency-deal-would-work-f8fbbda0
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,289

    Trump and the MAGAs are planning the mar-a-lago accords. Forcing short term bond holders to accept 100 year bonds... Basically a debt default.... if this happens it will be pandemonium.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-cant-stop-talking-about-the-mar-a-lago-accord-heres-how-the-currency-deal-would-work-f8fbbda0

    Sell USD a lot
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    In the pub. Just shown my wife. Her conclusion was 'What a Pillock you are'. Just saying
    I imagine this might become one of your fondest marital memories. In years to come when your wife is divorcing you sorry affectionately reminiscing about the peaks of your years together she will say "OMG remember that time we were in the pub and you forced me to sit down and awkwardly read a conversation on your smartphone that you'd had online with people I've never met just so that I could agree that this one particular person was a pillock, those were the days, eh?"
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,655
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The efforts to deify Trumpski have to happen now, cos in a year he will be less popular than Ebola (which is making a comeback, thanks to the Chief Fukwit and his Inbetweeners)

    No one tell him Roman Emperors were sometimes declared to be gods.
    I met a traveller from an antique land,
    Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
    Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
    Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
    And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
    Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
    Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
    The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
    And on the pedestal, these words appear:
    My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
    Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
    Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
    Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
    The lone and level sands stretch far away.”
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    Fox News put the Dow ticker over Trumpski's tariff speech so you can watch it plunge in real time

    https://bsky.app/profile/cooperlund.online/post/3ljiqirkx322o
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015

    I hope those wankers who said Trump would be better for Ukraine than Biden/Harris are feeling good tonight.

    US Govt has quietly begun to shut down desperately needed arms to Ukraine, @WSJ reports tonight.

    Begs the question, was Friday's Oval Office blow up orchestrated as an excuse to do what Trump/Vance have always wanted to do?


    https://x.com/tnewtondunn/status/1896653114243207313

    U.S. Hitting Brakes on Flow of Arms to Ukraine

    Military financing has been stopped, and officials are meeting to consider suspending another type of assistance


    https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-hitting-brakes-on-flow-of-arms-to-ukraine-980a71d1

    I feel like this situation ultimately ends with an emboldened Russia, and a Ukraine which is both weaker than it needed to be and less enamoured of the West than it was going to be.

    That's a win for the USA?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    When that gets brought up it really is a giveaway about someone's intentions. Ultimately it means that some nations are not allowed to have their own policies, yet it gets dressed up as some kind of shocking and underhanded thing that anyone would want to do that, or be aided to do it.

    In the eyes of much of the world, including the US President it would seem, Russia does still have a sphere of influence. Thank goodness the Baltics used the brief opportunity to get out of it, whereas poor Ukraine was too slow apparently and missed its chance.
    It's partly the Russian stronk! mentality. In the minds of many, Russia is still the USSR, with all its power. It is not; it is a fraction of its old self.

    (In fact, I'd strongly argue that it was never anywhere near as stronk as it liked to make out. One of the reasons it collapsed was the fact it constantly lied to itself about its own strength.)
    A lot of people inside and outside Russia seem to think they’re the USSR of 1945, and that their military performance in Ukraine matches that of 1943-45.
    The USSR of 1945 had a third of its army made up of Ukrainians.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    You're a connoisseur of autocrats, though,
    Humour is a matter of taste, and you've always had a soft spot for the fash-adjacent.

    I can certainly appreciate his rhetorical timing, in small doses, but he's about as funny as a well timed fart.
    A teacher asked his class how many of them were Trump fans.
    Not quite knowing what a Trump fan is, but wanting to be loved by the teacher, all of the kids raised their hands, except Little Johnny.

    The teacher asked Little Johnny why did you decide to be different... again.

    Little Johnny said, “Because I'm not a Trump fan."

    “Why aren't you a Trump fan?"

    Johnny said, “Because I'm a Democrat."

    The teacher asked him why he is a Democrat.

    Little Johnny replied, “Well my mom is a Democrat and my dad is a Democrat, so I'm a Democrat."

    The teacher, annoyed by this answer, asked him, "If your mother was an idiot and your father a jerk, what would that make you?"

    Little Johnny replied, “A Trump fan."
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,475

    Reading the news I am beginning to think that NATO is finished.... America is going to pull out. I mean it is defunct anyway. Five eyes is finished. Nobody will share intelligence with the americans as it goes directly to moscow. But NATO won't even have stationary and letter heads anymore let alone a command structure and armies 🤷‍♂️

    This is an earthquake in international relations unfolding: europe and america just can't agree on ukraine and the republican magas yearn to get into bed with Russia and putin.

    What a time to be alive.

    The chinese curse comes to mind...."may you live in interesting times"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    The share of Americans who say that Russia is an enemy is down from 64% to 34% since 2023.

    https://x.com/forecasterenten/status/1896618726906376650
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015

    a

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
    An interesting view of your mindset.

    It’s perfectly possible to have influence because people like your point of view.

    NATO was the club you could join if you wanted, leave if you wanted. The Warsaw Pact was imposed by armed force - see Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
    Pretend the sides are the equivalent and of course it doesn't matter about what any nation does anywhere.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,328
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    What’s the mindset in Estonia on recent developments?
    Interesting question.
    The politicians are signing up for a much stronger Europe- what else can we do? The general population is preparing for war to come here. With Poland, Sweden and Finland, we think we can hold out.
    We are expecting the next blow. I too have been thinking about it. I've decided I'm not leaving. PTN XLO.
    Well done.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189

    a

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
    An interesting view of your mindset.

    It’s perfectly possible to have influence because people like your point of view.

    NATO was the club you could join if you wanted, leave if you wanted. The Warsaw Pact was imposed by armed force - see Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
    Of course it is possible to have influence because people like you. But being within another country's sphere of influence is a very different thing.

    A sphere of influence is a very powerful tool for the country that owns it. You get everything you want, but you don't have to pay, govern, quell the populace, provide health services etc. The sphere of influence lasts until someone else challenges it. Then you must officially colonise the territory and garrison it if you wish to remain in control.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197

    I hope those wankers who said Trump would be better for Ukraine than Biden/Harris are feeling good tonight.

    US Govt has quietly begun to shut down desperately needed arms to Ukraine, @WSJ reports tonight.

    Begs the question, was Friday's Oval Office blow up orchestrated as an excuse to do what Trump/Vance have always wanted to do?


    https://x.com/tnewtondunn/status/1896653114243207313

    U.S. Hitting Brakes on Flow of Arms to Ukraine

    Military financing has been stopped, and officials are meeting to consider suspending another type of assistance


    https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-hitting-brakes-on-flow-of-arms-to-ukraine-980a71d1

    They will double down and blame Ukraine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015
    Apparently the youngest Cardinal is 45.

    He kind of looks like Zelensky to me, which is weird, as I think Francis is more of a Russia fan.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mykola_Bychok
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    You're a connoisseur of autocrats, though,
    Humour is a matter of taste, and you've always had a soft spot for the fash-adjacent.

    I can certainly appreciate his rhetorical timing, in small doses, but he's about as funny as a well timed fart.
    I'm just bored of these halfwitted takes on Trump, and all things Trumpian

    He IS funny, it's actually part of his skillset. He can take the piss out of himself, he is also very good at a brutal, funny putdown

    Now, you don't HAVE to laugh. I'd have found it hard to laugh at a Hitler joke even if Adolf was as good as Eddie Izzard in his prime. But that viral, self regarding, cringey British screed about "Trump being utterly humourless" - predictably reiterated by classic centrist dad @kjh - is simply wince-worthy

    It also enables Trump, and empowers him, that his enemies are driven so mad by him they cannot see him clearly and accurately. That is to his advantage
    I don't deny your point.
    Just saying that I don't find his humour funny at all.
    It's an interesting experiment

    eg Imagine if Hitler was funny. There is zero evidence (that I know) that he WAS remotely amusing. But imagine if you met Hitler and he WAS funny, that would induce intense, painful cognitive dissonance

    Josef Goebbels was properly funny, by all accounts - a waspish and subtle wit, laced with irony. That's creepy

    A late friend of mine, a gifted photographer and writer, met some of the nastiest of the Khmer Rouge elite - the real c*nts who deliberately ordered the deaths - in the cruellest ways - of millions

    He told me the worst thing about it was that they were charming. They were generally very bright, they had exquisite manners and cultured minds acquired in Paris of the 50s where they all learned Maoism as students (and many were from quite wealthy, civilised families)

    It freaked out my friend, that these evil people could charm him and make him laugh
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015

    The share of Americans who say that Russia is an enemy is down from 64% to 34% since 2023.

    https://x.com/forecasterenten/status/1896618726906376650

    No one can deny Trump is a true leader, and people follow where he leads. I wish it were not so, but it is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    What’s the mindset in Estonia on recent developments?
    Interesting question.
    The politicians are signing up for a much stronger Europe- what else can we do? The general population is preparing for war to come here. With Poland, Sweden and Finland, we think we can hold out.
    We are expecting the next blow. I too have been thinking about it. I've decided I'm not leaving. PTN XLO.
    We disagree on almost everything, but respect to you - @Cicero - for staying put and standing by your Estonian friends and family. That's genuinely creditable, when as a Brit you could easily walk away
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    kle4 said:

    The share of Americans who say that Russia is an enemy is down from 64% to 34% since 2023.

    https://x.com/forecasterenten/status/1896618726906376650

    No one can deny Trump is a true leader, and people follow where he leads. I wish it were not so, but it is.
    @EmporersNewC

    The problem with Trumpism is it's like a mass Jedi mind trick. With a wave of his hand Trump can get people to repeat all sorts of nonsense they don't really believe, but it only works on the weak minded.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
    "While there may be a formal alliance or other treaty obligations between the influenced and influencer, such formal arrangements are not necessary and the influence can often be more of an example of soft power. Similarly, a formal alliance does not necessarily mean that one country lies within another's sphere of influence."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    edited March 3
    MaxPB said:

    My bonus is 105% this year.
    (Which is good, for my rather miserly industry).

    So at least I can cling to that as Trump destroys everything that is sacred.

    Would you consider leaving the US and coming back here if it gets worse?
    After three years, I’m convinced that - at least for me - the general quality of life is better in London than New York.

    If you are a suburban kind of person, then I think the US surely trumps (no pun intended) the UK. Bigger, cheaper houses, vast countryside, and a sense of freedom.

    But if you like food, culture, travel, then London is better despite the shite weather. The education system is better in the UK, too. And who would retire in the U.S.? Everyday things that Brits don’t even think about are very expensive here.

    I here for largely pecuniary reasons.
    The tentative idea is to return in three years (will be six in total).
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,925
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    You're a connoisseur of autocrats, though,
    Humour is a matter of taste, and you've always had a soft spot for the fash-adjacent.

    I can certainly appreciate his rhetorical timing, in small doses, but he's about as funny as a well timed fart.
    I'm just bored of these halfwitted takes on Trump, and all things Trumpian

    He IS funny, it's actually part of his skillset. He can take the piss out of himself, he is also very good at a brutal, funny putdown

    Now, you don't HAVE to laugh. I'd have found it hard to laugh at a Hitler joke even if Adolf was as good as Eddie Izzard in his prime. But that viral, self regarding, cringey British screed about "Trump being utterly humourless" - predictably reiterated by classic centrist dad @kjh - is simply wince-worthy

    It also enables Trump, and empowers him, that his enemies are driven so mad by him they cannot see him clearly and accurately. That is to his advantage
    I don't deny your point.
    Just saying that I don't find his humour funny at all.
    It's an interesting experiment

    eg Imagine if Hitler was funny. There is zero evidence (that I know) that he WAS remotely amusing. But imagine if you met Hitler and he WAS funny, that would induce intense, painful cognitive dissonance

    Josef Goebbels was properly funny, by all accounts - a waspish and subtle wit, laced with irony. That's creepy

    A late friend of mine, a gifted photographer and writer, met some of the nastiest of the Khmer Rouge elite - the real c*nts who deliberately ordered the deaths - in the cruellest ways - of millions

    He told me the worst thing about it was that they were charming. They were generally very bright, they had exquisite manners and cultured minds acquired in Paris of the 50s where they all learned Maoism as students (and many were from quite wealthy, civilised families)

    It freaked out my friend, that these evil people could charm him and make him laugh
    Chamberlain found Hitler funny apparently and admitted, despite himself, to rather liking him. Said he had a great 'Austrian' sense of humour.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    What’s the mindset in Estonia on recent developments?
    Interesting question.
    The politicians are signing up for a much stronger Europe- what else can we do? The general population is preparing for war to come here. With Poland, Sweden and Finland, we think we can hold out.
    We are expecting the next blow. I too have been thinking about it. I've decided I'm not leaving. PTN XLO.
    We disagree on almost everything, but respect to you - @Cicero - for staying put and standing by your Estonian friends and family. That's genuinely creditable, when as a Brit you could easily walk away
    If Trump is in Putin’s pocket is anywhere really safe?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
    "While there may be a formal alliance or other treaty obligations between the influenced and influencer, such formal arrangements are not necessary and the influence can often be more of an example of soft power. Similarly, a formal alliance does not necessarily mean that one country lies within another's sphere of influence."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence
    Yes?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    You're a connoisseur of autocrats, though,
    Humour is a matter of taste, and you've always had a soft spot for the fash-adjacent.

    I can certainly appreciate his rhetorical timing, in small doses, but he's about as funny as a well timed fart.
    I'm just bored of these halfwitted takes on Trump, and all things Trumpian

    He IS funny, it's actually part of his skillset. He can take the piss out of himself, he is also very good at a brutal, funny putdown

    Now, you don't HAVE to laugh. I'd have found it hard to laugh at a Hitler joke even if Adolf was as good as Eddie Izzard in his prime. But that viral, self regarding, cringey British screed about "Trump being utterly humourless" - predictably reiterated by classic centrist dad @kjh - is simply wince-worthy

    It also enables Trump, and empowers him, that his enemies are driven so mad by him they cannot see him clearly and accurately. That is to his advantage
    I don't deny your point.
    Just saying that I don't find his humour funny at all.
    It's an interesting experiment

    eg Imagine if Hitler was funny. There is zero evidence (that I know) that he WAS remotely amusing. But imagine if you met Hitler and he WAS funny, that would induce intense, painful cognitive dissonance

    Josef Goebbels was properly funny, by all accounts - a waspish and subtle wit, laced with irony. That's creepy

    A late friend of mine, a gifted photographer and writer, met some of the nastiest of the Khmer Rouge elite - the real c*nts who deliberately ordered the deaths - in the cruellest ways - of millions

    He told me the worst thing about it was that they were charming. They were generally very bright, they had exquisite manners and cultured minds acquired in Paris of the 50s where they all learned Maoism as students (and many were from quite wealthy, civilised families)

    It freaked out my friend, that these evil people could charm him and make him laugh
    Chamberlain found Hitler funny apparently and admitted, despite himself, to rather liking him. Said he had a great 'Austrian' sense of humour.
    I've never considered that Austrian humour would be different from German.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    The share of Americans who say that Russia is an enemy is down from 64% to 34% since 2023.

    https://x.com/forecasterenten/status/1896618726906376650

    No one can deny Trump is a true leader, and people follow where he leads. I wish it were not so, but it is.
    @EmporersNewC

    The problem with Trumpism is it's like a mass Jedi mind trick. With a wave of his hand Trump can get people to repeat all sorts of nonsense they don't really believe, but it only works on the weak minded.
    It's more than that. Senators and the like may not believe it, but I think the base actually does. Would they even recognise they used to hold a contrary view? It's not uncommon for people to 'forget' the way they voted in polls years down the line.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,289
    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    What’s the mindset in Estonia on recent developments?
    Interesting question.
    The politicians are signing up for a much stronger Europe- what else can we do? The general population is preparing for war to come here. With Poland, Sweden and Finland, we think we can hold out.
    We are expecting the next blow. I too have been thinking about it. I've decided I'm not leaving. PTN XLO.
    We disagree on almost everything, but respect to you - @Cicero - for staying put and standing by your Estonian friends and family. That's genuinely creditable, when as a Brit you could easily walk away
    We do indeed disagree about virtually every thing. But it's not a sacrifice to do the right thing For either of us.
    Here I stand. I can do no other.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189

    MaxPB said:

    My bonus is 105% this year.
    (Which is good, for my rather miserly industry).

    So at least I can cling to that as Trump destroys everything that is sacred.

    Would you consider leaving the US and coming back here if it gets worse?
    After three years, I’m convinced that - at least for me - the general quality of life is better in London than New York.

    If you are a suburban kind of person, then I think the US surely trumps (no pun intended) the UK. Bigger, cheaper houses, vast countryside, and a sense of freedom.

    But if you like food, culture, travel, then London is better despite the shite weather. The education system is better in the UK, too. And who would retire in the U.S.? Everyday things that Brits don’t even think about are very expensive here.

    I here for largely pecuniary reasons.
    The tentative idea is to return in three years (will be six in total).
    Sounds good. Coming back for Nigel's annus mirabilis.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,475
    It occurs to me that if we need to onshore defence manufacturing which we surely do it is also an opportunity to bring skilled jobs to the left behind area's by siting arms factories there. A win win situation in many ways...we cut our dependence on american arms manufacturers and bring employment to the area's that need them
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,439

    a

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
    An interesting view of your mindset.

    It’s perfectly possible to have influence because people like your point of view.

    NATO was the club you could join if you wanted, leave if you wanted. The Warsaw Pact was imposed by armed force - see Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
    I understand what LuckyGuy is saying - spheres of influence do exist, particularly when there is a former imperial power next
    door. But does that mean they must be beholden to other powers once they’ve set themselves free?

    History would suggest otherwise. Is the USA beholden to France for getting it out of the British sphere of influence? Hardly. To whom is India beholden now it’s also slipped the British yoke? The US helped liberate China from the Japanese. China is far from beholden to them. Nor are the Saudis beholden to Britain for liberating them from the Ottomans.

    Trump has main character syndrome. He's acting narcissistically. There’s no need for some grand explanatory narrative to excuse his awful behaviour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015
    Cicero said:

    Trump and the MAGAs are planning the mar-a-lago accords. Forcing short term bond holders to accept 100 year bonds... Basically a debt default.... if this happens it will be pandemonium.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-cant-stop-talking-about-the-mar-a-lago-accord-heres-how-the-currency-deal-would-work-f8fbbda0

    Sell USD a lot
    Ok. First step is I need to buy some USD.

    Anyone have any going?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    kle4 said:

    The share of Americans who say that Russia is an enemy is down from 64% to 34% since 2023.

    https://x.com/forecasterenten/status/1896618726906376650

    No one can deny Trump is a true leader, and people follow where he leads. I wish it were not so, but it is.
    At this rate a majority of Americans will be supporting the US sending arms to Russia.

    Deeply depressing polling.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301
    edited March 3
    TimS said:

    a

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
    An interesting view of your mindset.

    It’s perfectly possible to have influence because people like your point of view.

    NATO was the club you could join if you wanted, leave if you wanted. The Warsaw Pact was imposed by armed force - see Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
    I understand what LuckyGuy is saying - spheres of influence do exist, particularly when there is a former imperial power next
    door. But does that mean they must be beholden to other powers once they’ve set themselves free?

    History would suggest otherwise. Is the USA beholden to France for getting it out of the British sphere of influence? Hardly. To whom is India beholden now it’s also slipped the British yoke? The US helped liberate China from the Japanese. China is far from beholden to them. Nor are the Saudis beholden to Britain for liberating them from the Ottomans.

    Trump has main character syndrome. He's acting narcissistically. There’s no need for some grand explanatory narrative to excuse his awful behaviour.
    France appears to view chunks of Central Africa as part of their sphere of influence and seems very keen on maintaining that situation.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,562

    The share of Americans who say that Russia is an enemy is down from 64% to 34% since 2023.

    https://x.com/forecasterenten/status/1896618726906376650

    What is the point you are making here?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
    "While there may be a formal alliance or other treaty obligations between the influenced and influencer, such formal arrangements are not necessary and the influence can often be more of an example of soft power. Similarly, a formal alliance does not necessarily mean that one country lies within another's sphere of influence."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence
    Yes?
    "and the influence can often be more of an example of soft power"

    Not, as you said: "but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice."
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,289
    kle4 said:

    Cicero said:

    Trump and the MAGAs are planning the mar-a-lago accords. Forcing short term bond holders to accept 100 year bonds... Basically a debt default.... if this happens it will be pandemonium.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-cant-stop-talking-about-the-mar-a-lago-accord-heres-how-the-currency-deal-would-work-f8fbbda0

    Sell USD a lot
    Ok. First step is I need to buy some USD.

    Anyone have any going?
    Sell short
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    edited March 3

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    You're a connoisseur of autocrats, though,
    Humour is a matter of taste, and you've always had a soft spot for the fash-adjacent.

    I can certainly appreciate his rhetorical timing, in small doses, but he's about as funny as a well timed fart.
    I'm just bored of these halfwitted takes on Trump, and all things Trumpian

    He IS funny, it's actually part of his skillset. He can take the piss out of himself, he is also very good at a brutal, funny putdown

    Now, you don't HAVE to laugh. I'd have found it hard to laugh at a Hitler joke even if Adolf was as good as Eddie Izzard in his prime. But that viral, self regarding, cringey British screed about "Trump being utterly humourless" - predictably reiterated by classic centrist dad @kjh - is simply wince-worthy

    It also enables Trump, and empowers him, that his enemies are driven so mad by him they cannot see him clearly and accurately. That is to his advantage
    I don't deny your point.
    Just saying that I don't find his humour funny at all.
    It's an interesting experiment

    eg Imagine if Hitler was funny. There is zero evidence (that I know) that he WAS remotely amusing. But imagine if you met Hitler and he WAS funny, that would induce intense, painful cognitive dissonance

    Josef Goebbels was properly funny, by all accounts - a waspish and subtle wit, laced with irony. That's creepy

    A late friend of mine, a gifted photographer and writer, met some of the nastiest of the Khmer Rouge elite - the real c*nts who deliberately ordered the deaths - in the cruellest ways - of millions

    He told me the worst thing about it was that they were charming. They were generally very bright, they had exquisite manners and cultured minds acquired in Paris of the 50s where they all learned Maoism as students (and many were from quite wealthy, civilised families)

    It freaked out my friend, that these evil people could charm him and make him laugh
    Chamberlain found Hitler funny apparently and admitted, despite himself, to rather liking him. Said he had a great 'Austrian' sense of humour.
    I've never considered that Austrian humour would be different from German.
    I've read quite a lot about Hitler - like any male interested in history! - and I have found zero evidence that Hitler made a single decent joke. And I have read verbatim accounts of his table talk

    He was properly bright. An autodidact. He was very cultured in a very narrow way - Wagner and Wagnerian opera etc

    But funny? - I've never seen a hint

    Perhaps - like some Teutons - his humour was slapstick and scatalogic: hahahaha he's fallen over into the dungheap - and you had to be there

    Brits really do have, at their best, probably the subtlest sense of humour on earth (with other Anglophone nations following). It must be God's way of making up for the weather and for Wick

    Also Jews, Jews are bloody funny. Israelis sadly less so
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Nigelb said:

    This is, I think absolutely correct.

    https://x.com/MacWBishop/status/1896639947278561465
    Still seeing a lot of magical thinking, denial and people desperately clinging to comments of various Cabinet officials in the hope that the relationship between Washington and Kyiv can be salvaged. Here are some hard truths:

    1) There is nothing Zelensky could have said or done that would have gotten a better result from Trump
    2) There is not now, nor has there even been, a realistic “peace plan” devised by the Trump administration

    3) The US will cut off aid for Ukraine
    4) Washington will normalize ties with Russia
    5) There is no “peace deal” which Trump or Putin will accept that involves US security guarantees

    6) The US intends to minimize security commitments to Europe
    7) While Trump may have difficulty ending de jure NATO commitment, his policy will be a de facto US withdrawal from NATO

    PS: Just adding that the war in Ukraine has been successfully turned into a partisan litmus test. The vilification of Zelensky and of Ukraine in general will continue to gain purchase. There are no good faith arguments which can now be used by US allies to alter this dynamic.


    Starmer has given it his best shot, but he’d better have a plan B.





    Indeed. They had a nice distracting weekend, but Trump has obviously made up his mind that Ukraine is doomed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    edited March 3
    TimS said:

    a

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
    An interesting view of your mindset.

    It’s perfectly possible to have influence because people like your point of view.

    NATO was the club you could join if you wanted, leave if you wanted. The Warsaw Pact was imposed by armed force - see Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
    I understand what LuckyGuy is saying - spheres of influence do exist, particularly when there is a former imperial power next
    door. But does that mean they must be beholden to other powers once they’ve set themselves free?

    History would suggest otherwise. Is the USA beholden to France for getting it out of the British sphere of influence? Hardly. To whom is India beholden now it’s also slipped the British yoke? The US helped liberate China from the Japanese. China is far from beholden to them. Nor are the Saudis beholden to Britain for liberating them from the Ottomans.

    Trump has main character syndrome. He's acting narcissistically. There’s no need for some grand explanatory narrative to excuse his awful behaviour.
    It is a simple question of relative size. Ukraine is a brave but smaller country on the border of a larger and more powerful one. Think Ireland. Ireland should really be (and many would argue de facto is) within the UK's sphere of influence. Yet it has powerful backing from the US, and retains EU membership, so in many ways it stands in defiance (not that the UK would ever really try anything) of the UK.

    The process in Ukraine was textbook end of sphere of influence. Russia's sphere of influence was threatened when Ukraine proposed to join the EU. Russia countered with an association agreement of their own - they had to. The EU and US utilised the protests to expand their influence. Russia fought back supporting insurgencies in the East. Etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015
    Nigelb said:

    This is, I think absolutely correct.

    https://x.com/MacWBishop/status/1896639947278561465
    Still seeing a lot of magical thinking, denial and people desperately clinging to comments of various Cabinet officials in the hope that the relationship between Washington and Kyiv can be salvaged. Here are some hard truths:

    1) There is nothing Zelensky could have said or done that would have gotten a better result from Trump
    2) There is not now, nor has there even been, a realistic “peace plan” devised by the Trump administration

    3) The US will cut off aid for Ukraine
    4) Washington will normalize ties with Russia
    5) There is no “peace deal” which Trump or Putin will accept that involves US security guarantees

    6) The US intends to minimize security commitments to Europe
    7) While Trump may have difficulty ending de jure NATO commitment, his policy will be a de facto US withdrawal from NATO

    PS: Just adding that the war in Ukraine has been successfully turned into a partisan litmus test. The vilification of Zelensky and of Ukraine in general will continue to gain purchase. There are no good faith arguments which can now be used by US allies to alter this dynamic.


    Starmer has given it his best shot, but he’d better have a plan B.

    The PS is the key. It took quite a bit of time, as it did not start out that way, but Ukraine is now the enemy as far as the GOP is concerned, and that is not about to change.

    We have been fortunate that it did not become a dividing line here.

    But any plan B will not be instantaneous, so in the short and medium term Ukraine is screwed.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,289
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    What’s the mindset in Estonia on recent developments?
    Interesting question.
    The politicians are signing up for a much stronger Europe- what else can we do? The general population is preparing for war to come here. With Poland, Sweden and Finland, we think we can hold out.
    We are expecting the next blow. I too have been thinking about it. I've decided I'm not leaving. PTN XLO.
    We disagree on almost everything, but respect to you - @Cicero - for staying put and standing by your Estonian friends and family. That's genuinely creditable, when as a Brit you could easily walk away
    If Trump is in Putin’s pocket is anywhere really safe?
    Indeed. I have family close to Holy Loch and Cheltenham. That was true for the 50 years of the cold war, so nothing has changed- for as long as we are prepared to make destruction mutual and assured.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    When that gets brought up it really is a giveaway about someone's intentions. Ultimately it means that some nations are not allowed to have their own policies, yet it gets dressed up as some kind of shocking and underhanded thing that anyone would want to do that, or be aided to do it.

    In the eyes of much of the world, including the US President it would seem, Russia does still have a sphere of influence. Thank goodness the Baltics used the brief opportunity to get out of it, whereas poor Ukraine was too slow apparently and missed its chance.
    It's partly the Russian stronk! mentality. In the minds of many, Russia is still the USSR, with all its power. It is not; it is a fraction of its old self.

    (In fact, I'd strongly argue that it was never anywhere near as stronk as it liked to make out. One of the reasons it collapsed was the fact it constantly lied to itself about its own strength.)
    A lot of people inside and outside Russia seem to think they’re the USSR of 1945, and that their military performance in Ukraine matches that of 1943-45.
    Well, in some respects it does.

    They've killed vast numbers of men in badly planned attacks, wasted enormous reserves of manpower and materiel, caused massive destruction everywhere they go, and spend much of their time massacring the population they claim to be liberating.

    The difference is this time Ukraine has actual allies.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    kle4 said:

    But any plan B will not be instantaneous, so in the short and medium term Ukraine is screwed.

    I think that might rather depend on how effectively they can keep destroying Russian fuel depots
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    Cicero said:

    kle4 said:

    Cicero said:

    Trump and the MAGAs are planning the mar-a-lago accords. Forcing short term bond holders to accept 100 year bonds... Basically a debt default.... if this happens it will be pandemonium.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-cant-stop-talking-about-the-mar-a-lago-accord-heres-how-the-currency-deal-would-work-f8fbbda0

    Sell USD a lot
    Ok. First step is I need to buy some USD.

    Anyone have any going?
    Sell short
    Bill, or Clare?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is, I think absolutely correct.

    https://x.com/MacWBishop/status/1896639947278561465
    Still seeing a lot of magical thinking, denial and people desperately clinging to comments of various Cabinet officials in the hope that the relationship between Washington and Kyiv can be salvaged. Here are some hard truths:

    1) There is nothing Zelensky could have said or done that would have gotten a better result from Trump
    2) There is not now, nor has there even been, a realistic “peace plan” devised by the Trump administration

    3) The US will cut off aid for Ukraine
    4) Washington will normalize ties with Russia
    5) There is no “peace deal” which Trump or Putin will accept that involves US security guarantees

    6) The US intends to minimize security commitments to Europe
    7) While Trump may have difficulty ending de jure NATO commitment, his policy will be a de facto US withdrawal from NATO

    PS: Just adding that the war in Ukraine has been successfully turned into a partisan litmus test. The vilification of Zelensky and of Ukraine in general will continue to gain purchase. There are no good faith arguments which can now be used by US allies to alter this dynamic.


    Starmer has given it his best shot, but he’d better have a plan B.





    Indeed. They had a nice distracting weekend, but Trump has obviously made up his mind that Ukraine is doomed.
    And that by defying him, he will make extra sure they are doomed. Don't they realise that he is trying to make a legacy here?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,211
    edited March 3
    I don’t think I’ve ever read an account of Hitler being funny. Stalin was apparently very jovial and witty, but then you have to remember the majority of the ones giving those accounts were forced to laugh at his jokes under pain of being shot otherwise.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,988
    Cicero said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    What’s the mindset in Estonia on recent developments?
    Interesting question.
    The politicians are signing up for a much stronger Europe- what else can we do? The general population is preparing for war to come here. With Poland, Sweden and Finland, we think we can hold out.
    We are expecting the next blow. I too have been thinking about it. I've decided I'm not leaving. PTN XLO.
    We disagree on almost everything, but respect to you - @Cicero - for staying put and standing by your Estonian friends and family. That's genuinely creditable, when as a Brit you could easily walk away
    If Trump is in Putin’s pocket is anywhere really safe?
    Indeed. I have family close to Holy Loch and Cheltenham. That was true for the 50 years of the cold war, so nothing has changed- for as long as we are prepared to make destruction mutual and assured.
    I doubt Trump is.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    BREAKING 🚨 🚨 🚨

    The Dow tumbled 830 points, or 1.9%, in afternoon trading. The broader S&P 500 fell 2.2% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3%.

    Dow tumbles 800 points as Trump confirms tariffs on Mexico and Canada will start Tuesday
  • Thanks Trump, that’s my stocks ruined for the day.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,853
    ydoethur said:

    Cicero said:

    kle4 said:

    Cicero said:

    Trump and the MAGAs are planning the mar-a-lago accords. Forcing short term bond holders to accept 100 year bonds... Basically a debt default.... if this happens it will be pandemonium.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-cant-stop-talking-about-the-mar-a-lago-accord-heres-how-the-currency-deal-would-work-f8fbbda0

    Sell USD a lot
    Ok. First step is I need to buy some USD.

    Anyone have any going?
    Sell short
    Bill, or Clare?
    Nigel.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,988
    Cicero said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    What’s the mindset in Estonia on recent developments?
    Interesting question.
    The politicians are signing up for a much stronger Europe- what else can we do? The general population is preparing for war to come here. With Poland, Sweden and Finland, we think we can hold out.
    We are expecting the next blow. I too have been thinking about it. I've decided I'm not leaving. PTN XLO.
    We disagree on almost everything, but respect to you - @Cicero - for staying put and standing by your Estonian friends and family. That's genuinely creditable, when as a Brit you could easily walk away
    If Trump is in Putin’s pocket is anywhere really safe?
    Indeed. I have family close to Holy Loch and Cheltenham. That was true for the 50 years of the cold war, so nothing has changed- for as long as we are prepared to make destruction mutual and assured.
    I'm 20 miles from Plymouth, as the fall-out flies...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,562
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    What’s the mindset in Estonia on recent developments?
    Interesting question.
    The politicians are signing up for a much stronger Europe- what else can we do? The general population is preparing for war to come here. With Poland, Sweden and Finland, we think we can hold out.
    We are expecting the next blow. I too have been thinking about it. I've decided I'm not leaving. PTN XLO.
    We disagree on almost everything, but respect to you - @Cicero - for staying put and standing by your Estonian friends and family. That's genuinely creditable, when as a Brit you could easily walk away
    If Trump is in Putin’s pocket is anywhere really safe?
    Putin waiting out the ultimate victory from 2017 for eight years is quite remarkable. Presumably the Biden win pushed the agenda back a few years but blimey they've got cracking since January. It looks like the plan is to lay waste to the USA economy and the dominos then all fall in sequence.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,961
    Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    When that gets brought up it really is a giveaway about someone's intentions. Ultimately it means that some nations are not allowed to have their own policies, yet it gets dressed up as some kind of shocking and underhanded thing that anyone would want to do that, or be aided to do it.

    In the eyes of much of the world, including the US President it would seem, Russia does still have a sphere of influence. Thank goodness the Baltics used the brief opportunity to get out of it, whereas poor Ukraine was too slow apparently and missed its chance.
    It's partly the Russian stronk! mentality. In the minds of many, Russia is still the USSR, with all its power. It is not; it is a fraction of its old self.

    (In fact, I'd strongly argue that it was never anywhere near as stronk as it liked to make out. One of the reasons it collapsed was the fact it constantly lied to itself about its own strength.)
    A lot of people inside and outside Russia seem to think they’re the USSR of 1945, and that their military performance in Ukraine matches that of 1943-45.
    The USSR of 1945 had a third of its army made up of Ukrainians.
    And 13000 US tanks via Lend Lease. Something similar could happen again I guess..
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    edited March 3

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
    "While there may be a formal alliance or other treaty obligations between the influenced and influencer, such formal arrangements are not necessary and the influence can often be more of an example of soft power. Similarly, a formal alliance does not necessarily mean that one country lies within another's sphere of influence."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence
    Yes?
    "and the influence can often be more of an example of soft power"

    Not, as you said: "but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice."
    Yes, but that is what influence means, and that's exactly what I am saying. Implied threat is soft power, not hard power.

    I think that sentence is more an example of how we in Britain misuse the phrase 'soft power', because it helps our national self esteem to think that we are powerful because we shit out lots of overseas aid and people enjoy watching Eastenders.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,475

    Cicero said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Phil said:

    https://x.com/atlantafed/status/1896598929564725716

    On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%

    The threat of tariffs being imposed on business supply chains is scaring the bejeezus out of US business leaders. Until they have some kind of certainty they’re all holding back on investment plans & it’s going to cause GDP to fall off a cliff.

    Trump will probably blame everyone else but himself, natch.
    The US GDP is 25% of global GDP but US market cap is 60% of global market cap.
    Two things will change- the market cap will now fall, to reflect the billions that the US tech sector will now not make (pissing over $100 billion against the wrong wall in AI) also the USD will no longer be the reserve currency. The impact of this second will cost the Americans their entire capital advantage. Result- huge funds flow to Europe, Korea and Japan.
    What’s the mindset in Estonia on recent developments?
    Interesting question.
    The politicians are signing up for a much stronger Europe- what else can we do? The general population is preparing for war to come here. With Poland, Sweden and Finland, we think we can hold out.
    We are expecting the next blow. I too have been thinking about it. I've decided I'm not leaving. PTN XLO.
    We disagree on almost everything, but respect to you - @Cicero - for staying put and standing by your Estonian friends and family. That's genuinely creditable, when as a Brit you could easily walk away
    If Trump is in Putin’s pocket is anywhere really safe?
    Indeed. I have family close to Holy Loch and Cheltenham. That was true for the 50 years of the cold war, so nothing has changed- for as long as we are prepared to make destruction mutual and assured.
    I'm 20 miles from Plymouth, as the fall-out flies...
    Not much further tbh
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    One for our "AI will take over the World" groupies

    https://www.wheresyoured.at/power-cut/

    Microsoft apparently massively cutting investment
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,328
    kle4 said:

    I hope those wankers who said Trump would be better for Ukraine than Biden/Harris are feeling good tonight.

    US Govt has quietly begun to shut down desperately needed arms to Ukraine, @WSJ reports tonight.

    Begs the question, was Friday's Oval Office blow up orchestrated as an excuse to do what Trump/Vance have always wanted to do?


    https://x.com/tnewtondunn/status/1896653114243207313

    U.S. Hitting Brakes on Flow of Arms to Ukraine

    Military financing has been stopped, and officials are meeting to consider suspending another type of assistance


    https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-hitting-brakes-on-flow-of-arms-to-ukraine-980a71d1

    I feel like this situation ultimately ends with an emboldened Russia, and a Ukraine which is both weaker than it needed to be and less enamoured of the West than it was going to be.


    That's a win for the USA?
    Why do you think Trump cares?

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,866
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is, I think absolutely correct.

    https://x.com/MacWBishop/status/1896639947278561465
    Still seeing a lot of magical thinking, denial and people desperately clinging to comments of various Cabinet officials in the hope that the relationship between Washington and Kyiv can be salvaged. Here are some hard truths:

    1) There is nothing Zelensky could have said or done that would have gotten a better result from Trump
    2) There is not now, nor has there even been, a realistic “peace plan” devised by the Trump administration

    3) The US will cut off aid for Ukraine
    4) Washington will normalize ties with Russia
    5) There is no “peace deal” which Trump or Putin will accept that involves US security guarantees

    6) The US intends to minimize security commitments to Europe
    7) While Trump may have difficulty ending de jure NATO commitment, his policy will be a de facto US withdrawal from NATO

    PS: Just adding that the war in Ukraine has been successfully turned into a partisan litmus test. The vilification of Zelensky and of Ukraine in general will continue to gain purchase. There are no good faith arguments which can now be used by US allies to alter this dynamic.


    Starmer has given it his best shot, but he’d better have a plan B.





    Indeed. They had a nice distracting weekend, but Trump has obviously made up his mind that Ukraine is doomed.
    If Mandelson can salvage something by succesfully oiling both Trump and Zelensky, he would be forgiven every error.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING 🚨 🚨 🚨

    The Dow tumbled 830 points, or 1.9%, in afternoon trading. The broader S&P 500 fell 2.2% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3%.

    Dow tumbles 800 points as Trump confirms tariffs on Mexico and Canada will start Tuesday

    But how is Tesla doing? That's what would most concern the shadow Vice-President presumably.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,370
    edited March 3
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    He really is heroically unfunny. His defenders keep telling me he's a wind up merchant
    He isn't. He's a Fascist enabling cu*t.
    Harding used to be the worst President in US history. Yet Harding only delayed America's rise. Trump is worse. He is accelerating America's decline.
    His name will be down with that of Nero as one of the worst ruler in history.
    The hosts of an American podcast I listen to, Trump haters and seasoned standups to a man, are willing to admit Trump often "stumbles into funny". Amazing given how appalling, on the surface, the timing of his speech is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015

    kle4 said:

    I hope those wankers who said Trump would be better for Ukraine than Biden/Harris are feeling good tonight.

    US Govt has quietly begun to shut down desperately needed arms to Ukraine, @WSJ reports tonight.

    Begs the question, was Friday's Oval Office blow up orchestrated as an excuse to do what Trump/Vance have always wanted to do?


    https://x.com/tnewtondunn/status/1896653114243207313

    U.S. Hitting Brakes on Flow of Arms to Ukraine

    Military financing has been stopped, and officials are meeting to consider suspending another type of assistance


    https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-hitting-brakes-on-flow-of-arms-to-ukraine-980a71d1

    I feel like this situation ultimately ends with an emboldened Russia, and a Ukraine which is both weaker than it needed to be and less enamoured of the West than it was going to be.


    That's a win for the USA?
    Why do you think Trump cares?

    I don't think he does, but other people profess to care and I struggle to see how america's power and influence is being advanced.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    Foss said:

    TimS said:

    a

    TimS said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896625861396140070

    Sen Tuberville: "Zelenskyy's gonna play hardball, but you know what? He's not even in the game. It's gonna be Putin and President Trump and the people on our side that will end up making this decision for the future of Ukraine."

    I know you’re just trolling, but that’s the sort of imperial arrogance Ukrainians stuck two fingers up to in 2014.
    But it's not really is it? Ukraine decided to use a powerful backer (the US, with Europe in tow) to break away from Russia's sphere of influence. They would always have needed that protector and been dependent and beholden to them. Enough people decided that that was worth it. It was always a very high stakes game.
    Russia doesn't have a sphere of influence, this isn't the 19th century.
    If Putin had wanted to attract the old ex-Soviet states, he could have played nicely with them, and attracted them through being a brilliant neighbour. Instead, he tried extortion, murder and political interference.

    And some people don't seem to understand why so many of those eastern European states wanted to look away from Russia towards the EU and NATO, and not to his murderous tyranny.
    That's not what a sphere of influence means - it is not people liking you, it is countries that have the appearance and the infrastructure of self-government but in fact will do anything you want because they don't really have a choice. Are you seriously arguing that Belarus for example is not within Russia's sphere of influence, because everyone here usually argues precisely the opposite. Ukraine was very much in that bracket, but enough people decided to leave it. To do that they needed a greater force to get them out. They were always going to be beholden to that force.
    An interesting view of your mindset.

    It’s perfectly possible to have influence because people like your point of view.

    NATO was the club you could join if you wanted, leave if you wanted. The Warsaw Pact was imposed by armed force - see Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
    I understand what LuckyGuy is saying - spheres of influence do exist, particularly when there is a former imperial power next
    door. But does that mean they must be beholden to other powers once they’ve set themselves free?

    History would suggest otherwise. Is the USA beholden to France for getting it out of the British sphere of influence? Hardly. To whom is India beholden now it’s also slipped the British yoke? The US helped liberate China from the Japanese. China is far from beholden to them. Nor are the Saudis beholden to Britain for liberating them from the Ottomans.

    Trump has main character syndrome. He's acting narcissistically. There’s no need for some grand explanatory narrative to excuse his awful behaviour.
    France appears to view chunks of Central Africa as part of their sphere of influence and seems very keen on maintaining that situation.
    They are really part of its formal empire.

    China is busy creating a real sphere of influence in Africa, without having to plant any flags.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Another good thread here, on tariffs.

    https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1896663112360800429
    I've talked to pretty high-level folks in both US and Can this week, incl in Trump's govt: no one has any idea the real reason for these tariffs or what DT is trying to accomplish. What's to negotiate? Honestly, I think he just likes tariffs b/c of a bad understanding of econ...

    I can't think of *any* theory of the economy where you would tax imports of goods your country can't make, which are inputs to things you can make (resources and ag, most obviously)...

    That said, US and China are really only countries whose domestic markets can support something close to autarky, so in standard models it is just "moronic" not "complete collapse of the economy". But this is also why other countries can't threaten useful retaliation...

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,328

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    You're a connoisseur of autocrats, though,
    Humour is a matter of taste, and you've always had a soft spot for the fash-adjacent.

    I can certainly appreciate his rhetorical timing, in small doses, but he's about as funny as a well timed fart.
    I'm just bored of these halfwitted takes on Trump, and all things Trumpian

    He IS funny, it's actually part of his skillset. He can take the piss out of himself, he is also very good at a brutal, funny putdown

    Now, you don't HAVE to laugh. I'd have found it hard to laugh at a Hitler joke even if Adolf was as good as Eddie Izzard in his prime. But that viral, self regarding, cringey British screed about "Trump being utterly humourless" - predictably reiterated by classic centrist dad @kjh - is simply wince-worthy

    It also enables Trump, and empowers him, that his enemies are driven so mad by him they cannot see him clearly and accurately. That is to his advantage
    I don't deny your point.
    Just saying that I don't find his humour funny at all.
    It's an interesting experiment

    eg Imagine if Hitler was funny. There is zero evidence (that I know) that he WAS remotely amusing. But imagine if you met Hitler and he WAS funny, that would induce intense, painful cognitive dissonance

    Josef Goebbels was properly funny, by all accounts - a waspish and subtle wit, laced with irony. That's creepy

    A late friend of mine, a gifted photographer and writer, met some of the nastiest of the Khmer Rouge elite - the real c*nts who deliberately ordered the deaths - in the cruellest ways - of millions

    He told me the worst thing about it was that they were charming. They were generally very bright, they had exquisite manners and cultured minds acquired in Paris of the 50s where they all learned Maoism as students (and many were from quite wealthy, civilised families)

    It freaked out my friend, that these evil people could charm him and make him laugh
    Chamberlain found Hitler funny apparently and admitted, despite himself, to rather
    liking him. Said he had a great 'Austrian' sense of humour.
    I've never considered that Austrian humour would be different from German.
    @Roger could learn a thing or two from the Austrians

    They convinced the world that Beethoven was Austrian and Hitler German…
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 770
    carnforth said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    He really is heroically unfunny. His defenders keep telling me he's a wind up merchant
    He isn't. He's a Fascist enabling cu*t.
    Harding used to be the worst President in US history. Yet Harding only delayed America's rise. Trump is worse. He is accelerating America's decline.
    His name will be down with that of Nero as one of the worst ruler in history.
    The hosts of an American podcast I listen to, Trump haters and seasoned standups to a man, are willing to admit Trump often "stumbles into funny". Amazing given how appalling, on the surface, the timing of his speech is.
    He's only funny in that way teachers can be funny when they're inviting the class to laugh at another pupil.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,604
    edited March 3
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:

    A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

    For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

    So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

    Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

    I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

    But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

    Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

    And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

    There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.

    This is cringe-worthy shite, with a large dash of excruciating British snobbery. Trump is genuinely funny. He might be worse than Hitler or a nastier version of Caligula, or merely a grim parallel with Pinochet, but he IS funny. If you watch him without prejudice - hard for many of middling wits - you will see it. Probably beyond you
    You're a connoisseur of autocrats, though,
    Humour is a matter of taste, and you've always had a soft spot for the fash-adjacent.

    I can certainly appreciate his rhetorical timing, in small doses, but he's about as funny as a well timed fart.
    I'm just bored of these halfwitted takes on Trump, and all things Trumpian

    He IS funny, it's actually part of his skillset. He can take the piss out of himself, he is also very good at a brutal, funny putdown

    Now, you don't HAVE to laugh. I'd have found it hard to laugh at a Hitler joke even if Adolf was as good as Eddie Izzard in his prime. But that viral, self regarding, cringey British screed about "Trump being utterly humourless" - predictably reiterated by classic centrist dad @kjh - is simply wince-worthy

    It also enables Trump, and empowers him, that his enemies are driven so mad by him they cannot see him clearly and accurately. That is to his advantage
    I don't deny your point.
    Just saying that I don't find his humour funny at all.
    It's an interesting experiment

    eg Imagine if Hitler was funny. There is zero evidence (that I know) that he WAS remotely amusing. But imagine if you met Hitler and he WAS funny, that would induce intense, painful cognitive dissonance

    Josef Goebbels was properly funny, by all accounts - a waspish and subtle wit, laced with irony. That's creepy

    A late friend of mine, a gifted photographer and writer, met some of the nastiest of the Khmer Rouge elite - the real c*nts who deliberately ordered the deaths - in the cruellest ways - of millions

    He told me the worst thing about it was that they were charming. They were generally very bright, they had exquisite manners and cultured minds acquired in Paris of the 50s where they all learned Maoism as students (and many were from quite wealthy, civilised families)

    It freaked out my friend, that these evil people could charm him and make him laugh
    Chamberlain found Hitler funny apparently and admitted, despite himself, to rather liking him. Said he had a great 'Austrian' sense of humour.
    I've never considered that Austrian humour would be different from German.
    I've read quite a lot about Hitler - like any male interested in history! - and I have found zero evidence that Hitler made a single decent joke. And I have read verbatim accounts of his table talk

    He was properly bright. An autodidact. He was very cultured in a very narrow way - Wagner and Wagnerian opera etc

    But funny? - I've never seen a hint

    Perhaps - like some Teutons - his humour was slapstick and scatalogic: hahahaha he's fallen over into the dungheap - and you had to be there

    Brits really do have, at their best, probably the subtlest sense of humour on earth (with other Anglophone nations following). It must be God's way of making up for the weather and for Wick

    Also Jews, Jews are bloody funny. Israelis sadly less so
    ...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    edited March 3

    I don’t think I’ve ever read an account of Hitler being funny. Stalin was apparently very jovial and witty, but then you have to remember the majority of the ones giving those accounts were forced to laugh at his jokes under pain of being shot otherwise.

    Laughing like a drain at his fart jokes probably increased one's chances of survival somewhat.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155

    The latest from Trump:

    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114099924838350231

    Europe has spent more money buying Russian Oil and Gas than they have spent on defending Ukraine —BY FAR!

    In the last 3 years?
    He seems to be referring to this report:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more-russian-oil-gas-than-financial-aid-ukraine-report

    The EU is spending more money on Russian fossil fuels than on financial aid to Ukraine, a report marking the third anniversary of the invasion has found.

    EU member states bought €21.9bn (£18.1bn) of Russian oil and gas in the third year of the war, according to estimates from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), despite the efforts under way to kick the continent’s addiction to the fuels that fund Vladimir Putin’s war chest.

    The amount is one-sixth greater than the €18.7bn the EU allocated to Ukraine in financial aid in 2024, according to a tracker from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    In other words it's a load of bollocks as "EU financial aid" is only part of the aid provided by European countries to Ukraine, and doesn't include the financial aid provided by member states, nor the military aid.

    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

    And which EU state bought the most in fossil fuels from Russia in 2024? Slovakia (followed by France, Hungary, Austria and Spain).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING 🚨 🚨 🚨

    The Dow tumbled 830 points, or 1.9%, in afternoon trading. The broader S&P 500 fell 2.2% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3%.

    Dow tumbles 800 points as Trump confirms tariffs on Mexico and Canada will start Tuesday

    But how is Tesla doing? That's what would most concern the shadow Vice-President presumably.
    Seen on the tube, apparently...

    https://bsky.app/profile/realbiscuitspaw.bsky.social/post/3ljfcu2kwrs2p
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,475
    Hmmm seems to have saved my comment as draft before I posted and used to be able to delete it via my draft but its missing now anyone have any clue?
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