Freshwater Strategy, who carried out the poll, are a new outfit and applying to become members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and this is their third poll for CIty AM.
Neither of their previous polls seem to be referenced on Wikpedia but the tables are available via the company's own website.
To make a peace deal work, both sides need to believe that it's in their interests to stop fighting and a US-Russia rapprochement is probably a necessary component of that.
The main BBC headline makes Starmer sound like a credulous fool: "Trump's commitment to peace in Ukraine is sincere".
Technically, yes. I'm sure Trump would love to see a peace under Russian subjugation. But I think most people will take this to mean Starmer has deluded himself as to Trump's intentions.
The BBC have been very hostile to Starmer's hostility to Trump over the weekend. Kuennsberg was outraged at our behaviour towards Trump on one clip I saw.
Kuennsberg was blaming Zelensky for what happened at the White House and asking when he would apologise. She is as bad as Farage.
Freshwater Strategy, who carried out the poll, are a new outfit and applying to become members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and this is their third poll for CIty AM.
Neither of their previous polls seem to be referenced on Wikpedia but the tables are available via the company's own website.
To make a peace deal work, both sides need to believe that it's in their interests to stop fighting and a US-Russia rapprochement is probably a necessary component of that.
Although it looks like Trump is about to cut the umbilical cord to Ukraine. If that comes to pass your team loses all rights to a say on Ukraine.
To make a peace deal work, both sides need to believe that it's in their interests to stop fighting and a US-Russia rapprochement is probably a necessary component of that.
The main BBC headline makes Starmer sound like a credulous fool: "Trump's commitment to peace in Ukraine is sincere".
Technically, yes. I'm sure Trump would love to see a peace under Russian subjugation. But I think most people will take this to mean Starmer has deluded himself as to Trump's intentions.
The BBC have been very hostile to Starmer's hostility to Trump over the weekend. Kuennsberg was outraged at our behaviour towards Trump on one clip I saw.
It's swinging all over the place.
First we were celebrating Starmer's nauseating but effective diplomacy in the Oval Office; then going all in on the outrage on the ambush on Zelensky (justifiably); then mocking Starmer for being so naive; now we are back to urging realpolitik from the government.
The order has been upended so it makes sense that we've lost our footing.
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
In a sense we are in a 'wait and see' period. Much liberal western comment more or less assumes that the USA is a lost cause to NATO and the various strategic western alliances, and has joined a different club - that of 'spheres of influence' superpowers. FWIW that's my view.
From there, three possibilities arise for now: The USA is clearly kept in/brought back to its traditional post WWII role. Second, that it is soon agreed by all that USA is lost to the free western world alliances. Third, that a long term unresolved ambiguity is maintained - which is where we are now - unless and until sometimes breaks.
Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time. The second is where I think we are heading but I hope I am wrong. The third reflects how the world often works, but would be sub-optimal.
I wonder what others think.
Good analysis. My view is option 3. I think Trump is personally pro-Putin but that the USA still has a lot if institutional inertia that Russia are the bad guys. I think Trump would like Russia to be part of the not-China team in the way that Nixon wanted China to be part of the not-Russia team. I think Trump would personally quite like to see Europe crushed beneath Putin's shiny boots just for being so bloody European.
Absolute fury at Starmer's "warmongering" from callers on LBC.
"Putin isn't going to invade Britain, can't we learn from the lessons of Iraq?"
Yes, I think the PB armchair regiment is not very representative of the wider views of the country.
Well the latest polling from last week had 66% of people thinking our current support was either the right amount or not enough compared to a massive 18% who think it is too much.
At the same time Zelensky and his actions are supported by Britons by 60% to 12%.
So I would suggest that both you and those callers are not representative of British public opinion, which is much closer to the PB concensus.
Macron: "Europeans can no longer rely on NATO as they once did, because Trump's position has weakened it. We will need 10 years to free ourselves from American influence through massive local and European investment." https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1896540092338250233
Not sure the Republican Party is a thing any more. It has been eaten from the inside by MAGA.
It’s not a recognisably conservative party, any longer. It’s like one of those cockroaches that’s been paralysed and controlled by a parasitic wasp.
Trump has basically turned the GOP into a nationalist hard right party closer to say the far right AfD or Le Pen's party or Reform than most western centre right parties.
In some ways a clever tactic by him, he knew in the US 2 party FPTP dominated system he would never get far with his own party so he and his supporters basically took over the GOP instead
Absolute fury at Starmer's "warmongering" from callers on LBC.
"Putin isn't going to invade Britain, can't we learn from the lessons of Iraq?"
Yes, I think the PB armchair regiment is not very representative of the wider views of the country.
We don't know yet. We need a bit of time and some polling. PB is representative of my circle of friends and colleagues but I accept that they are not a representative group. My daughter is absolutely spitting at Trump and Vance, and she is normally uninterested in politics.
I see Badenoch is flat-lining. 12% as best PM is only half of what the Tory party is polling, so the other half of Tory voters are not impressed.
The key thing here is whether the voters have already written her off, as they did IDS, or whether they simply don't really have an opinion so far.
On a smaller stage it took some time for Ruth Davidson to get noticed - she struggled at first - before she upended expectations and made a positive impact in what is usually a pretty unpromising environment for a Tory. Could Kemi become a Ruth. Or is she IDS mk2?
Not sure the Republican Party is a thing any more. It has been eaten from the inside by MAGA.
It’s not a recognisably conservative party, any longer. It’s like one of those cockroaches that’s been paralysed and controlled by a parasitic wasp.
Trump has basically turned the GOP into a nationalist hard right party closer to say the far right AfD or Le Pen's party or Reform than most western centre right parties.
In some ways a clever tactic by him, he knew in the US 2 party FPTP dominated system he would never get far with his own party so he and his supporters basically took over the GOP instead
The odd thing about the Republicans, OFP, and AFD is that they were nationalist, on behalf of a foreign country, namely Russia.
Le Pen, like Meloni, seems more alert to the threat that Putin poses.
Absolute fury at Starmer's "warmongering" from callers on LBC.
"Putin isn't going to invade Britain, can't we learn from the lessons of Iraq?"
Yes,, I think the PB armchair regiment is not very representative of the wider views of the country.
At one point, you were sympathetic to Ukraine. What changed your mind?
I am sympathetic to Ukraine and clear that Russia is the aggressor.
Wars are often popular as they start, much less so as they develop. I think that one of the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Starting military adventures without a clear plan to achieve the desired objectives and to disengage is something that we have done far too often. It often doesn't benefit either the countries we intervene in or our own benefit.
"America will not put up with it for much longer!"
More like Starmer said it could not be done without US support, Tusk and Von der Leyen said quite clearly it could be done with European support alone.
Clearly Trump trying to drive a wedge between Starmer and the EU
Not sure the Republican Party is a thing any more. It has been eaten from the inside by MAGA.
It’s not a recognisably conservative party, any longer. It’s like one of those cockroaches that’s been paralysed and controlled by a parasitic wasp.
Trump has basically turned the GOP into a nationalist hard right party closer to say the far right AfD or Le Pen's party or Reform than most western centre right parties.
In some ways a clever tactic by him, he knew in the US 2 party FPTP dominated system he would never get far with his own party so he and his supporters basically took over the GOP instead
The odd thing about the Republicans, OFP, and AFD is that they were nationalist, on behalf of a foreign country, namely Russia.
Le Pen, like Meloni, seems more alert to the threat that Putin poses.
To a limited extent but Le Pen opposes a European army for example and Deputy Italian PM Salvini is more pro Putin than Meloni
If correct, according to Sky, Zelensky has said that the end of the war is a long way off. Right or wrong, Trump is not happy . In all seriousness, I think in this case Trump has a point here. Tha plain truth is we all need US support right now and for a good few years. Why give Trump an excuse to pull the plug?
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
I am a decent and fair minded voter, and I think Starmer needs the boot in his borrowed suit trouser clad behind before he further wrecks our country. The fact that he has stood by some union flags in the intervening period has not changed my view, and I would hope that the salt of the earth Reform voters will be similarly resistant to such weak-minded piffle.
Support for Reform is support for Putin and Trump, and such support is not decent, fair minded, or in the tradition of our country
Listen to the cross party support across the house apart from the ludicrous Farage and his mob
Since when has the prevailing opinion of Westminster MPs been a guide to what is right and just. Good for Nigel and his plucky band for actually representing the interests of their constituents against barracking from the rest of the pathetic no marks who have washed up in parliament like a build up of ocean plastic. They'll be gone come the next election.
If correct, according to Sky, Zelensky has said that the end of the war is a long way off. Right or wrong, Trump is not happy . In all seriousness, I think in this case Trump has a point here. Tha plain truth is we all need US support right now and for a good few years. Why give Trump an excuse to pull the plug?
We won't get it. Trump just wants an excuse to pull the plug on US aid for Zelensky so he can focus on his trade wars with Mexico, Canada, China and the EU and funding more border agents to stop and deport immigrants and slashing the Federal government and EDI which is his main focus
Absolute fury at Starmer's "warmongering" from callers on LBC.
"Putin isn't going to invade Britain, can't we learn from the lessons of Iraq?"
Yes,, I think the PB armchair regiment is not very representative of the wider views of the country.
At one point, you were sympathetic to Ukraine. What changed your mind?
I am sympathetic to Ukraine and clear that Russia is the aggressor.
Wars are often popular as they start, much less so as they develop. I think that one of the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Starting military adventures without a clear plan to achieve the desired objectives and to disengage is something that we have done far too often. It often doesn't benefit either the countries we intervene in or our own benefit.
All we need to do, is provide aid to those who are trying to defend themselves. Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else in this country, is expected to go and fight and die in Donbass.
67% of UK voters blame Trump for the argument in the White House, including 86% of LDs, 78% of Labour voters, 76% of Tory voters and 42% of Reform voters.
Just 7% blame Zelensky and 12% both equally, albeit 26% of Reform voters blame Ukraine's President and 20% both equally.
Congress passed legislation in 2023 that prevents any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without congressional approval.
The lead GOP author?
Marco Rubio
Given that the GOP have a majority in both the house and the senate that isn’t a big issue
The law is worthless anyway. There is no obligation to act, so the US can stay in NATO and Trump can ignore calls for help and even aid Russia if he chooses. And it is abundantly clear he isn't on Ukraine or Europe's side.
I realise it probably isn't quite the time for Starmer to be saying this publically, but I sure as hell hope we are planning as though America is absent, and even considering what we might do is America becomes hostile.
67% of UK voters blame Trump for the argument in the White House, including 86% of LDs, 78% of Labour voters, 76% of Tory voters and 42% of Reform voters.
Just 7% blame Zelensky and 12% both equally, albeit 26% of Reform voters blame Ukraine's President and 20% both equally.
If correct, according to Sky, Zelensky has said that the end of the war is a long way off. Right or wrong, Trump is not happy . In all seriousness, I think in this case Trump has a point here. Tha plain truth is we all need US support right now and for a good few years. Why give Trump an excuse to pull the plug?
We won't get it. Trump just wants an excuse to pull the plug on US aid for Zelensky so he can focus on his trade wars with Mexico, Canada, China and the EU and funding more border agents to stop and deport immigrants and slashing the Federal government and EDI which is his main focus
Indeed. Trump's only interest in Ukraine was to get money or a quick PR win from ending the war. Neither of those is going to happen so he'll disengage. I would not be surprised to see him announce a US pull out from NATO in the near future.
Close European bases, bring home the troops and use it as an excuse to cut defence spending.
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
I am a decent and fair minded voter, and I think Starmer needs the boot in his borrowed suit trouser clad behind before he further wrecks our country. The fact that he has stood by some union flags in the intervening period has not changed my view, and I would hope that the salt of the earth Reform voters will be similarly resistant to such weak-minded piffle.
Support for Reform is support for Putin and Trump, and such support is not decent, fair minded, or in the tradition of our country
Listen to the cross party support across the house apart from the ludicrous Farage and his mob
Since when has the prevailing opinion of Westminster MPs been a guide to what is right and just. Good for Nigel and his plucky band for actually representing the interests of their constituents against barracking from the rest of the pathetic no marks who have washed up in parliament like a build up of ocean plastic. They'll be gone come the next election.
Absolute fury at Starmer's "warmongering" from callers on LBC.
"Putin isn't going to invade Britain, can't we learn from the lessons of Iraq?"
Yes,, I think the PB armchair regiment is not very representative of the wider views of the country.
At one point, you were sympathetic to Ukraine. What changed your mind?
I am sympathetic to Ukraine and clear that Russia is the aggressor.
Wars are often popular as they start, much less so as they develop. I think that one of the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Starting military adventures without a clear plan to achieve the desired objectives and to disengage is something that we have done far too often. It often doesn't benefit either the countries we intervene in or our own benefit.
All we need to do, is provide aid to those who are trying to defend themselves. Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else in this country, is expected to go and fight and die in Donbass.
Very little is being asked of us.
I’m not sure who is supposed to have “started a military adventure” here. Except Russia.
Massive backlash to Starmer's "boots on the ground in Ukraine" comment from the callers to LBC. Rather than improve Starmer's standing it may take a tumble. I suspect we don't really care about Ukraine so long as Putin leaves us alone. I'm quite shocked that voters don't see the longer view.
Well he might not get his Nobel Peace Prize but Trump's mark on history is going to be significant, although I fear not in a good way.
If correct, according to Sky, Zelensky has said that the end of the war is a long way off. Right or wrong, Trump is not happy . In all seriousness, I think in this case Trump has a point here. Tha plain truth is we all need US support right now and for a good few years. Why give Trump an excuse to pull the plug?
We won't get it. Trump just wants an excuse to pull the plug on US aid for Zelensky so he can focus on his trade wars with Mexico, Canada, China and the EU and funding more border agents to stop and deport immigrants and slashing the Federal government and EDI which is his main focus
If so the w/e was a waste of time. And God help Ukraine .
Absolute fury at Starmer's "warmongering" from callers on LBC.
"Putin isn't going to invade Britain, can't we learn from the lessons of Iraq?"
Yes,, I think the PB armchair regiment is not very representative of the wider views of the country.
At one point, you were sympathetic to Ukraine. What changed your mind?
I am sympathetic to Ukraine and clear that Russia is the aggressor.
Wars are often popular as they start, much less so as they develop. I think that one of the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Starting military adventures without a clear plan to achieve the desired objectives and to disengage is something that we have done far too often. It often doesn't benefit either the countries we intervene in or our own benefit.
Yes, you want to tool up for insurance but without slipping into a "wider war with Russia is inevitable" mindset since that can create its own momentum.
Macron: "Europeans can no longer rely on NATO as they once did, because Trump's position has weakened it. We will need 10 years to free ourselves from American influence through massive local and European investment." https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1896540092338250233
67% of UK voters blame Trump for the argument in the White House, including 86% of LDs, 78% of Labour voters, 76% of Tory voters and 42% of Reform voters.
Just 7% blame Zelensky and 12% both equally, albeit 26% of Reform voters blame Ukraine's President and 20% both equally.
If correct, according to Sky, Zelensky has said that the end of the war is a long way off. Right or wrong, Trump is not happy . In all seriousness, I think in this case Trump has a point here. Tha plain truth is we all need US support right now and for a good few years. Why give Trump an excuse to pull the plug?
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
In a sense we are in a 'wait and see' period. Much liberal western comment more or less assumes that the USA is a lost cause to NATO and the various strategic western alliances, and has joined a different club - that of 'spheres of influence' superpowers. FWIW that's my view.
From there, three possibilities arise for now: The USA is clearly kept in/brought back to its traditional post WWII role. Second, that it is soon agreed by all that USA is lost to the free western world alliances. Third, that a long term unresolved ambiguity is maintained - which is where we are now - unless and until sometimes breaks.
Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time. The second is where I think we are heading but I hope I am wrong. The third reflects how the world often works, but would be sub-optimal.
I wonder what others think.
Good analysis. My view is option 3. I think Trump is personally pro-Putin but that the USA still has a lot if institutional inertia that Russia are the bad guys. I think Trump would like Russia to be part of the not-China team in the way that Nixon wanted China to be part of the not-Russia team. I think Trump would personally quite like to see Europe crushed beneath Putin's shiny boots just for being so bloody European.
I'm not sure Starmer does believe the first is possible. Instead I think he is trying to avert the worst-case scenario of 2 for as long as possible i.e. he is really in camp 3. But his way of averting 2 is to present his public statements as if 1 is possible, so as not to annoy Trump.
(ETA: in answer to your question, yes I did confuse myself whilst writing the paragraph above!)
In some ways, being attacked by others for being too close to Trump serves his purposes right now as Trump's relationships are so personal - you can imagine Starmer ringing Trump and saying 'I'm fighting like hell to keep UK and Europe with you, what can you give me to make this easier?'
Was it you Cookie who said Starmer should get more credit than Davey because he has the difficult (impossible?) job of actually being PM in the middle of this shitshow. I wholeheartedly endorse that.
Absolute fury at Starmer's "warmongering" from callers on LBC.
"Putin isn't going to invade Britain, can't we learn from the lessons of Iraq?"
Yes,, I think the PB armchair regiment is not very representative of the wider views of the country.
At one point, you were sympathetic to Ukraine. What changed your mind?
I am sympathetic to Ukraine and clear that Russia is the aggressor.
Wars are often popular as they start, much less so as they develop. I think that one of the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Starting military adventures without a clear plan to achieve the desired objectives and to disengage is something that we have done far too often. It often doesn't benefit either the countries we intervene in or our own benefit.
Then we should do the right thing and support Ukraine as much as we can, for as long as they want that support.
So I'll ask the old question: if we don't support Ukraine now, when do we support an attacked country? When Russia goes after the Baltics? After Poland (ha!)? After Romania?
It'll be *much* harder then.
We did not have a clear plan to 'disengage' when we entered World War 2, did we? We did it because it was the right thing to do, and we were facing a fascist, imperialist country (three, in fact, if you stretch fascism to include 1930s Japan).
The parallels with 1938 are clear and frightening. Which means we need to learn the lessons from back then.
"America will not put up with it for much longer!"
More like Starmer said it could not be done without US support, Tusk and Von der Leyen said quite clearly it could be done with European support alone.
Clearly Trump trying to drive a wedge between Starmer and the EU
Another big error from Starmer, although I can see why he said it in order to curry favour with Trump.
Ed is holding Starmer's mistakes to the fire. Kemi needs to do the same. A big political opportunity for her to get fully on board with Europe.
Massive backlash to Starmer's "boots on the ground in Ukraine" comment from the callers to LBC. Rather than improve Starmer's standing it may take a tumble. I suspect we don't really care about Ukraine so long as Putin leaves us alone. I'm quite shocked that voters don't see the longer view.
Well he might not get his Nobel Peace Prize but Trump's mark on history is going to be significant, although I fear not in a good way.
How representative are the callers to LBC? As representative as PB?
Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:
A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.
For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.
So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.
Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.
I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.
But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.
Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.
And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.
There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.
If correct, according to Sky, Zelensky has said that the end of the war is a long way off. Right or wrong, Trump is not happy . In all seriousness, I think in this case Trump has a point here. Tha plain truth is we all need US support right now and for a good few years. Why give Trump an excuse to pull the plug?
We won't get it. Trump just wants an excuse to pull the plug on US aid for Zelensky so he can focus on his trade wars with Mexico, Canada, China and the EU and funding more border agents to stop and deport immigrants and slashing the Federal government and EDI which is his main focus
If so the w/e was a waste of time. And God help Ukraine .
The rest of NATO just needs to increase defence spending and fill the gap
Some Americans might see this as refreshingly upfront.
Well, we don’t. We see it as having no inner world, no soul.
And in Britain we traditionally side with David, not Goliath. All our heroes are plucky underdogs: Robin Hood, Dick Whittington, Oliver Twist.
Trump is neither plucky, nor an underdog. He is the exact opposite of that.
He’s not even a spoiled rich-boy, or a greedy fat-cat.
He’s more a fat white slug. A Jabba the Hutt of privilege.
And worse, he is that most unforgivable of all things to the British: a bully.
That is, except when he is among bullies; then he suddenly transforms into a snivelling sidekick instead.
There are unspoken rules to this stuff - the Queensberry rules of basic decency - and he breaks them all. He punches downwards - which a gentleman should, would, could never do - and every blow he aims is below the belt. He particularly likes to kick the vulnerable or voiceless - and he kicks them when they are down.
So the fact that a significant minority - perhaps a third - of Americans look at what he does, listen to what he says, and then think 'Yeah, he seems like my kind of guy? is a matter of some confusion and no little distress to British people, given that:
* Americans are supposed to be nicer than us, and mostly are.
* You don't need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man.
This last point is what especially confuses and dismays British people, and many other people too; his faults seem pretty bloody hard to miss.
After all, it’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit. His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum.
God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid.
He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart.
In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws - he would make a Trump.
And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish:
'My God? what? have? I? created?
If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set.
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
In a sense we are in a 'wait and see' period. Much liberal western comment more or less assumes that the USA is a lost cause to NATO and the various strategic western alliances, and has joined a different club - that of 'spheres of influence' superpowers. FWIW that's my view.
From there, three possibilities arise for now: The USA is clearly kept in/brought back to its traditional post WWII role. Second, that it is soon agreed by all that USA is lost to the free western world alliances. Third, that a long term unresolved ambiguity is maintained - which is where we are now - unless and until sometimes breaks.
Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time. The second is where I think we are heading but I hope I am wrong. The third reflects how the world often works, but would be sub-optimal.
I wonder what others think.
Good analysis. My view is option 3. I think Trump is personally pro-Putin but that the USA still has a lot if institutional inertia that Russia are the bad guys. I think Trump would like Russia to be part of the not-China team in the way that Nixon wanted China to be part of the not-Russia team. I think Trump would personally quite like to see Europe crushed beneath Putin's shiny boots just for being so bloody European.
I'm not sure Starmer does believe the first is possible. Instead I think he is trying to avert the worst-case scenario of 2 for as long as possible i.e. he is really in camp 3. But his way of averting 2 is to present his public statements as if 1 is possible, so as not to annoy Trump.
(ETA: in answer to your question, yes I did confuse myself whilst writing the paragraph above!)
In some ways, being attacked by others for being too close to Trump serves his purposes right now as Trump's relationships are so personal - you can imagine Starmer ringing Trump and saying 'I'm fighting like hell to keep UK and Europe with you, what can you give me to make this easier?'
Was it you Cookie who said Starmer should get more credit than Davey because he has the difficult (impossible?) job of actually being PM in the middle of this shitshow. I wholeheartedly endorse that.
Yes, that was me. He has to compromise with the world as it is - and I agree, he has to play it as if it's Option 1 even if he doesn't believe it.
Massive backlash to Starmer's "boots on the ground in Ukraine" comment from the callers to LBC. Rather than improve Starmer's standing it may take a tumble. I suspect we don't really care about Ukraine so long as Putin leaves us alone. I'm quite shocked that voters don't see the longer view.
Well he might not get his Nobel Peace Prize but Trump's mark on history is going to be significant, although I fear not in a good way.
There aren't going to be British 'boots on the ground' as Starmer made clear unless a Russia and Ukraine ceasefire with a US backstop which is a million miles away anyway and likely won't happen until either a new Russian, Ukranian or US President
"America will not put up with it for much longer!"
That is incendiary William. I would say the odds are 75% Trump leaves Ukraine to fend for itself and 25% he signs his protection racket deal and insists on new elections and Zelensky is banished to Milton Keynes.
Massive backlash to Starmer's "boots on the ground in Ukraine" comment from the callers to LBC. Rather than improve Starmer's standing it may take a tumble. I suspect we don't really care about Ukraine so long as Putin leaves us alone. I'm quite shocked that voters don't see the longer view.
Well he might not get his Nobel Peace Prize but Trump's mark on history is going to be significant, although I fear not in a good way.
Nobody is suggesting British troops go and fight the Russians in the Ukraine now - there is a suggestion Britain could contribute soldiers (though, I suspect, more likely, logistical support) to a peacekeeping force once a ceasefire has been agreed.
I'm equivocal about that but it seems such a force has to be European rather than UN for example.
"America will not put up with it for much longer!"
That is incendiary William. I would say the odds are 75% Trump leaves Ukraine to fend for itself and 25% he signs his protection racket deal and insists on new elections and Zelensky is banished to Milton Keynes.
According to the NYT, Zelensky’s “long way to go” was supposed to be part of an attempt to smooth it over again with the White House, and was simply meant as a way to describe the collective efforts necessary for peace.
Given that the last week has seen a flurry of talk about armchair generals and "will you be volunteering to go to the front line then?", perhaps it's time to apply this principle to other areas of politics.
"We need to stop the boats": "you're volunteering to head out to the channel on a cold Monday morning and personally sink them are you?"
"We need to clamp down on multinational tax avoidance": "So you'll be personally sifting through the tax returns to identify tax adjustments then?"
"NHS waiting lists have to come down": "Oh right, so I assume you armchair surgeons will be heading out to the operating theatres to bring it down yourselves?"
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
I am a decent and fair minded voter, and I think Starmer needs the boot in his borrowed suit trouser clad behind before he further wrecks our country. The fact that he has stood by some union flags in the intervening period has not changed my view, and I would hope that the salt of the earth Reform voters will be similarly resistant to such weak-minded piffle.
Support for Reform is support for Putin and Trump, and such support is not decent, fair minded, or in the tradition of our country
Listen to the cross party support across the house apart from the ludicrous Farage and his mob
Since when has the prevailing opinion of Westminster MPs been a guide to what is right and just. Good for Nigel and his plucky band for actually representing the interests of their constituents against barracking from the rest of the pathetic no marks who have washed up in parliament like a build up of ocean plastic. They'll be gone come the next election.
He is not representing their interests. His actions and words make conflict with Russia far more likely in the medium term and he is putting the interests of foreign leaders who are inimical to Britain ahead of the interests of his own country. For someone who said he wanted to return power to Britain from foreign interference and control he certainly doing his best to give it all away again.
Massive backlash to Starmer's "boots on the ground in Ukraine" comment from the callers to LBC. Rather than improve Starmer's standing it may take a tumble. I suspect we don't really care about Ukraine so long as Putin leaves us alone. I'm quite shocked that voters don't see the longer view.
Well he might not get his Nobel Peace Prize but Trump's mark on history is going to be significant, although I fear not in a good way.
How representative are the callers to LBC? As representative as PB?
I suppose it depends on the show. This was Swarbrick. Starmer was being pilloried by anti- Iraq warriors and old ladies pissed off with their winter fuel allowance going to Ukraine. It was universal. Perhaps Nige isn't as wrong as I thought.
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
I am a decent and fair minded voter, and I think Starmer needs the boot in his borrowed suit trouser clad behind before he further wrecks our country. The fact that he has stood by some union flags in the intervening period has not changed my view, and I would hope that the salt of the earth Reform voters will be similarly resistant to such weak-minded piffle.
Support for Reform is support for Putin and Trump, and such support is not decent, fair minded, or in the tradition of our country
Listen to the cross party support across the house apart from the ludicrous Farage and his mob
Since when has the prevailing opinion of Westminster MPs been a guide to what is right and just. Good for Nigel and his plucky band for actually representing the interests of their constituents against barracking from the rest of the pathetic no marks who have washed up in parliament like a build up of ocean plastic. They'll be gone come the next election.
He is not representing their intersts. His actions and words make conflict with Russia far more lilley in the medium term and he is putting the interests of foreign leaders who are inimical to Britain ahead of the interests of his own country. For someone who said he wanted to return power to Britain from foreign interference and control he certainly doing his best to give it all away again.
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
In a sense we are in a 'wait and see' period. Much liberal western comment more or less assumes that the USA is a lost cause to NATO and the various strategic western alliances, and has joined a different club - that of 'spheres of influence' superpowers. FWIW that's my view.
From there, three possibilities arise for now: The USA is clearly kept in/brought back to its traditional post WWII role. Second, that it is soon agreed by all that USA is lost to the free western world alliances. Third, that a long term unresolved ambiguity is maintained - which is where we are now - unless and until sometimes breaks.
Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time. The second is where I think we are heading but I hope I am wrong. The third reflects how the world often works, but would be sub-optimal.
I wonder what others think.
Good analysis. My view is option 3. I think Trump is personally pro-Putin but that the USA still has a lot if institutional inertia that Russia are the bad guys. I think Trump would like Russia to be part of the not-China team in the way that Nixon wanted China to be part of the not-Russia team. I think Trump would personally quite like to see Europe crushed beneath Putin's shiny boots just for being so bloody European.
I'm not sure Starmer does believe the first is possible. Instead I think he is trying to avert the worst-case scenario of 2 for as long as possible i.e. he is really in camp 3. But his way of averting 2 is to present his public statements as if 1 is possible, so as not to annoy Trump.
(ETA: in answer to your question, yes I did confuse myself whilst writing the paragraph above!)
In some ways, being attacked by others for being too close to Trump serves his purposes right now as Trump's relationships are so personal - you can imagine Starmer ringing Trump and saying 'I'm fighting like hell to keep UK and Europe with you, what can you give me to make this easier?'
Was it you Cookie who said Starmer should get more credit than Davey because he has the difficult (impossible?) job of actually being PM in the middle of this shitshow. I wholeheartedly endorse that.
Yes, that was me. He has to compromise with the world as it is - and I agree, he has to play it as if it's Option 1 even if he doesn't believe it.
Agree. In particular, everyone is in the game of trying to ensure that any new ghastly emergence in the situation is not their fault. Starmer devoted the whole of Thursday, Sunday and this afternoon partly to that end, and quite right too. If the west/Starmer went round at this moment saying 'Trump is a Russian stooge, it's all over, perhaps he should prepare three envelopes and measure up the curtains in the Kremlin', the USA have lots of ways of making that rupture our fault.
The new director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, questioned whether Ukraine and the United States really share common values and extended her critique to European countries who rallied around Mr. Zelensky, saying, they “don’t stand with us around these fundamental values of freedom.”
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
I am a decent and fair minded voter, and I think Starmer needs the boot in his borrowed suit trouser clad behind before he further wrecks our country. The fact that he has stood by some union flags in the intervening period has not changed my view, and I would hope that the salt of the earth Reform voters will be similarly resistant to such weak-minded piffle.
Support for Reform is support for Putin and Trump, and such support is not decent, fair minded, or in the tradition of our country
Listen to the cross party support across the house apart from the ludicrous Farage and his mob
Since when has the prevailing opinion of Westminster MPs been a guide to what is right and just. Good for Nigel and his plucky band for actually representing the interests of their constituents against barracking from the rest of the pathetic no marks who have washed up in parliament like a build up of ocean plastic. They'll be gone come the next election.
He is not representing their intersts. His actions and words make conflict with Russia far more lilley in the medium term and he is putting the interests of foreign leaders who are inimical to Britain ahead of the interests of his own country. For someone who said he wanted to return power to Britain from foreign interference and control he certainly doing his best to give it all away again.
As noted during and post the Brexit vote.
Well done for saying exactly the opposite of what I said.
Some Americans might see this as refreshingly upfront.
Well, we don’t. We see it as having no inner world, no soul.
And in Britain we traditionally side with David, not Goliath. All our heroes are plucky underdogs: Robin Hood, Dick Whittington, Oliver Twist.
Trump is neither plucky, nor an underdog. He is the exact opposite of that.
He’s not even a spoiled rich-boy, or a greedy fat-cat.
He’s more a fat white slug. A Jabba the Hutt of privilege.
And worse, he is that most unforgivable of all things to the British: a bully.
That is, except when he is among bullies; then he suddenly transforms into a snivelling sidekick instead.
There are unspoken rules to this stuff - the Queensberry rules of basic decency - and he breaks them all. He punches downwards - which a gentleman should, would, could never do - and every blow he aims is below the belt. He particularly likes to kick the vulnerable or voiceless - and he kicks them when they are down.
So the fact that a significant minority - perhaps a third - of Americans look at what he does, listen to what he says, and then think 'Yeah, he seems like my kind of guy? is a matter of some confusion and no little distress to British people, given that:
* Americans are supposed to be nicer than us, and mostly are.
* You don't need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man.
This last point is what especially confuses and dismays British people, and many other people too; his faults seem pretty bloody hard to miss.
After all, it’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit. His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum.
God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid.
He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart.
In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws - he would make a Trump.
And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish:
'My God? what? have? I? created?
If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set.
Very good.
But surprising it doesn't touch on the block capitals. He is a president who does everything in block capitals. I wish this was just a metaphor.
Macron: "Europeans can no longer rely on NATO as they once did, because Trump's position has weakened it. We will need 10 years to free ourselves from American influence through massive local and European investment." https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1896540092338250233
TEN YEARS? Ten weeks!
Ten years is probably a fairly aggressive estimate. On a macro scale Europe has to replace a lot of technology and hardware only obtainable from the US at the moment. We also need to scale up production in many sectors that have long lead times. Aircraft like the F-35, P-8 and E-7, don't currently have viable European alternatives. Replacing them will easily take 10 years even if we start right now. The Tempest program has been around for a while now and I don't expect that to enter service in any quantity before 2035.
On the micro scale, a huge proportion of the components used in weapons come from the US. Open up a 'European' missile and two thirds of the components inside will be of US origin. Take large capacity FPGA chips, which are widespread in military hardware. All the vendors of these are either US or Chinese, nobody in Europe makes them.
Fixing that probably entails throwing money at a manufacturer like ST Micro and waiting a decade for them to spin up their own FPGA family.
"America will not put up with it for much longer!"
That is incendiary William. I would say the odds are 75% Trump leaves Ukraine to fend for itself and 25% he signs his protection racket deal and insists on new elections and Zelensky is banished to Milton Keynes.
According to the NYT, Zelensky’s “long way to go” was supposed to be part of an attempt to smooth it over again with the White House, and was simply meant as a way to describe the collective efforts necessary for peace.
Seems like Trump’s in no mood for that.
It's gaslighting plain and simple. Zelensky could say "good morning" to Trump and he'd be accused of lying.
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
I am a decent and fair minded voter, and I think Starmer needs the boot in his borrowed suit trouser clad behind before he further wrecks our country. The fact that he has stood by some union flags in the intervening period has not changed my view, and I would hope that the salt of the earth Reform voters will be similarly resistant to such weak-minded piffle.
Support for Reform is support for Putin and Trump, and such support is not decent, fair minded, or in the tradition of our country
Listen to the cross party support across the house apart from the ludicrous Farage and his mob
Since when has the prevailing opinion of Westminster MPs been a guide to what is right and just. Good for Nigel and his plucky band for actually representing the interests of their constituents against barracking from the rest of the pathetic no marks who have washed up in parliament like a build up of ocean plastic. They'll be gone come the next election.
He is not representing their intersts. His actions and words make conflict with Russia far more lilley in the medium term and he is putting the interests of foreign leaders who are inimical to Britain ahead of the interests of his own country. For someone who said he wanted to return power to Britain from foreign interference and control he certainly doing his best to give it all away again.
As noted during and post the Brexit vote.
Well done for saying exactly the opposite of what I said.
Not at all. I merely echo your final point, and note it was made during the Brexit campaign.
For someone who said he wanted to return power to Britain from foreign interference and control he certainly doing his best to give it all away again.
Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:
A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.
For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.
So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.
Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.
I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.
But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.
Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.
And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.
There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.
(Mrs Merton voice)
So, Elon, what first attracted you to Presidential candidate Donald Trump?
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
In a sense we are in a 'wait and see' period. Much liberal western comment more or less assumes that the USA is a lost cause to NATO and the various strategic western alliances, and has joined a different club - that of 'spheres of influence' superpowers. FWIW that's my view.
From there, three possibilities arise for now: The USA is clearly kept in/brought back to its traditional post WWII role. Second, that it is soon agreed by all that USA is lost to the free western world alliances. Third, that a long term unresolved ambiguity is maintained - which is where we are now - unless and until sometimes breaks.
Starmer wants the first, and may believe it is possible, or it may just be playing for time. The second is where I think we are heading but I hope I am wrong. The third reflects how the world often works, but would be sub-optimal.
I wonder what others think.
Good analysis. My view is option 3. I think Trump is personally pro-Putin but that the USA still has a lot if institutional inertia that Russia are the bad guys. I think Trump would like Russia to be part of the not-China team in the way that Nixon wanted China to be part of the not-Russia team. I think Trump would personally quite like to see Europe crushed beneath Putin's shiny boots just for being so bloody European.
I'm not sure Starmer does believe the first is possible. Instead I think he is trying to avert the worst-case scenario of 2 for as long as possible i.e. he is really in camp 3. But his way of averting 2 is to present his public statements as if 1 is possible, so as not to annoy Trump.
(ETA: in answer to your question, yes I did confuse myself whilst writing the paragraph above!)
In some ways, being attacked by others for being too close to Trump serves his purposes right now as Trump's relationships are so personal - you can imagine Starmer ringing Trump and saying 'I'm fighting like hell to keep UK and Europe with you, what can you give me to make this easier?'
Was it you Cookie who said Starmer should get more credit than Davey because he has the difficult (impossible?) job of actually being PM in the middle of this shitshow. I wholeheartedly endorse that.
Yes, that was me. He has to compromise with the world as it is - and I agree, he has to play it as if it's Option 1 even if he doesn't believe it.
Agree. In particular, everyone is in the game of trying to ensure that any new ghastly emergence in the situation is not their fault. Starmer devoted the whole of Thursday, Sunday and this afternoon partly to that end, and quite right too. If the west/Starmer went round at this moment saying 'Trump is a Russian stooge, it's all over, perhaps he should prepare three envelopes and measure up the curtains in the Kremlin', the USA have lots of ways of making that rupture our fault.
Indeed. The very well alone moment is coming. We need to make sure the USA isn't given an easy pass on this. It's their fault.
And no VI from More In Common - do we think Reform lead there too?
I would gently suggest it is too early to expect changes in polling
Let's see where they are in a couple of weeks
Starmer has been excellent and he should gain in approval, Kemi also was spot on with her support as was James Cleverly
At times like this we need to stand together but there is one person who is poison to the debate and Farage does not represent the decent and fair minded voter
I am a decent and fair minded voter, and I think Starmer needs the boot in his borrowed suit trouser clad behind before he further wrecks our country. The fact that he has stood by some union flags in the intervening period has not changed my view, and I would hope that the salt of the earth Reform voters will be similarly resistant to such weak-minded piffle.
Support for Reform is support for Putin and Trump, and such support is not decent, fair minded, or in the tradition of our country
Listen to the cross party support across the house apart from the ludicrous Farage and his mob
Since when has the prevailing opinion of Westminster MPs been a guide to what is right and just. Good for Nigel and his plucky band for actually representing the interests of their constituents against barracking from the rest of the pathetic no marks who have washed up in parliament like a build up of ocean plastic. They'll be gone come the next election.
He is not representing their intersts. His actions and words make conflict with Russia far more lilley in the medium term and he is putting the interests of foreign leaders who are inimical to Britain ahead of the interests of his own country. For someone who said he wanted to return power to Britain from foreign interference and control he certainly doing his best to give it all away again.
As noted during and post the Brexit vote.
Well done for saying exactly the opposite of what I said.
Not at all. I merely echo your final point, and note it was made during the Brexit campaign.
For someone who said he wanted to return power to Britain from foreign interference and control he certainly doing his best to give it all away again.
Why do people not like Donald Trump? Nate White's response:
A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.
For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.
So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.
Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.
I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.
But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.
Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.
And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.
There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.
(Mrs Merton voice)
So, Elon, what first attracted you to Presidential candidate Donald Trump?
Trump is quite funny, although it’s the humour of a bully, so it mostly goes over British heads.
Americans struggle with irony, and are slightly more receptive to Trumpian wit such as it is.
Macron: "Europeans can no longer rely on NATO as they once did, because Trump's position has weakened it. We will need 10 years to free ourselves from American influence through massive local and European investment." https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1896540092338250233
TEN YEARS? Ten weeks!
Ten years is probably a fairly aggressive estimate. On a macro scale Europe has to replace a lot of technology and hardware only obtainable from the US at the moment. We also need to scale up production in many sectors that have long lead times. Aircraft like the F-35, P-8 and E-7, don't currently have viable European alternatives. Replacing them will easily take 10 years even if we start right now. The Tempest program has been around for a while now and I don't expect that to enter service in any quantity before 2035.
On the micro scale, a huge proportion of the components used in weapons come from the US. Open up a 'European' missile and two thirds of the components inside will be of US origin. Take large capacity FPGA chips, which are widespread in military hardware. All the vendors of these are either US or Chinese, nobody in Europe makes them.
Fixing that probably entails throwing money at a manufacturer like ST Micro and waiting a decade for them to spin up their own FPGA family.
Germany and France could turn their hand to USA- free war machinery manufacturing, but we are reliant on companies like Lockheed Martin.
I have heard some criticism that Starmer misread the post Berlin Wall peace dividend. I'm not sure what more he personally could have done, but as the incumbent he carries the can for 35 years of inertia.
"America will not put up with it for much longer!"
That is incendiary William. I would say the odds are 75% Trump leaves Ukraine to fend for itself and 25% he signs his protection racket deal and insists on new elections and Zelensky is banished to Milton Keynes.
"My patience is exhausted. If Beneš does not want peace we will have to take matters into our own hands."
It just dawned on me that the relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is suspiciously close—and closed—in the same way the relationship between Trump and Putin is.
Then I remembered the WSJ report revealing Musk speaks with Putin regularly.
The new director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, questioned whether Ukraine and the United States really share common values and extended her critique to European countries who rallied around Mr. Zelensky, saying, they “don’t stand with us around these fundamental values of freedom.”
I'm fairly sure than President Trump is not a Russian agent.
Tulsi Gabbard, on the other hand, is either exceptionally stupid or working for Putin.
"America will not put up with it for much longer!"
That is incendiary William. I would say the odds are 75% Trump leaves Ukraine to fend for itself and 25% he signs his protection racket deal and insists on new elections and Zelensky is banished to Milton Keynes.
According to the NYT, Zelensky’s “long way to go” was supposed to be part of an attempt to smooth it over again with the White House, and was simply meant as a way to describe the collective efforts necessary for peace.
Seems like Trump’s in no mood for that.
It's gaslighting plain and simple. Zelensky could say "good morning" to Trump and he'd be accused of lying.
They want to force Zelenskyy out.
Rather ironic in a way. They and their far left bedfellows have been insisting the 2014 events were a CIA-backed colour revolution and a coup to install a pro-Western government, in spite of copious evidence to the contrary. They are trying to make the same arguments about Georgia. Now they want to engineer an actual US-backed coup in Ukraine in plain sight.
Seems Trump is lashing out at Zelenskyy saying he won't put up with him any longer
My real fear is he turns against Starmer and Macron leaving everyone in a perilous military position
Goodness knows what comes next
Macron gets replaced by LePen shortly and Starmer by Nige. The peril increases substantially.
The test will be for traditional conservative parties.
IF she has a choice between supporting a minority Reform Government led by Farage and a continuing minority Labour Government led by Starmer, which way would Kemi Badenoch jump?
I can't now rule out the possibility of a minority Labour Government supported by both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats as the outcome of the next GE.
If correct, according to Sky, Zelensky has said that the end of the war is a long way off. Right or wrong, Trump is not happy . In all seriousness, I think in this case Trump has a point here. Tha plain truth is we all need US support right now and for a good few years. Why give Trump an excuse to pull the plug?
We won't get it. Trump just wants an excuse to pull the plug on US aid for Zelensky so he can focus on his trade wars with Mexico, Canada, China and the EU and funding more border agents to stop and deport immigrants and slashing the Federal government and EDI which is his main focus
If so the w/e was a waste of time. And God help Ukraine .
The rest of NATO just needs to increase defence spending and fill the gap
Nonsense. The problem is that is impossible within a realistic timescale.
The new director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, questioned whether Ukraine and the United States really share common values and extended her critique to European countries who rallied around Mr. Zelensky, saying, they “don’t stand with us around these fundamental values of freedom.”
I'm fairly sure than President Trump is not a Russian agent.
Tulsi Gabbard, on the other hand, is either exceptionally stupid or working for Putin.
Or both, of course.
If Trump is a Russian agent he's not hiding it. His treachery is displayed at the centre of the shop window.
Macron: "Europeans can no longer rely on NATO as they once did, because Trump's position has weakened it. We will need 10 years to free ourselves from American influence through massive local and European investment." https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1896540092338250233
TEN YEARS? Ten weeks!
Ten years is probably a fairly aggressive estimate. On a macro scale Europe has to replace a lot of technology and hardware only obtainable from the US at the moment. We also need to scale up production in many sectors that have long lead times. Aircraft like the F-35, P-8 and E-7, don't currently have viable European alternatives. Replacing them will easily take 10 years even if we start right now. The Tempest program has been around for a while now and I don't expect that to enter service in any quantity before 2035.
On the micro scale, a huge proportion of the components used in weapons come from the US. Open up a 'European' missile and two thirds of the components inside will be of US origin. Take large capacity FPGA chips, which are widespread in military hardware. All the vendors of these are either US or Chinese, nobody in Europe makes them.
Fixing that probably entails throwing money at a manufacturer like ST Micro and waiting a decade for them to spin up their own FPGA family.
On the other hand, we don't necessarily need F35 equivalent planes: the Eurofighter Typhoon, the Dassault Mirage, and the Saab Grippen are all perfectly capable 4.5 Gen fighters.
I don't know the extent to which they are dependent on US components.
The new director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, questioned whether Ukraine and the United States really share common values and extended her critique to European countries who rallied around Mr. Zelensky, saying, they “don’t stand with us around these fundamental values of freedom.”
I'm fairly sure than President Trump is not a Russian agent.
Tulsi Gabbard, on the other hand, is either exceptionally stupid or working for Putin.
Or both, of course.
Yet she was nominated by all Republicans in the Senate, save Mitch McConnell.
I wonder how historians will account for this wholesale sell-out.
On the other hand, we don't necessarily need F35 equivalent planes: the Eurofighter Typhoon, the Dassault Mirage, and the Saab Grippen are all perfectly capable 4.5 Gen fighters.
Seems Trump is lashing out at Zelenskyy saying he won't put up with him any longer
My real fear is he turns against Starmer and Macron leaving everyone in a perilous military position
Goodness knows what comes next
Macron gets replaced by LePen shortly and Starmer by Nige. The peril increases substantially.
The test will be for traditional conservative parties.
IF she has a choice between supporting a minority Reform Government led by Farage and a continuing minority Labour Government led by Starmer, which way would Kemi Badenoch jump?
I can't now rule out the possibility of a minority Labour Government supported by both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats as the outcome of the next GE.
As things stand today - and it is hard to see it getting jollier soon - I don't think there is any doubt that Lab, Con and LD would make common cause; and millions of voters would vote for whichever party is placed to beat Reform. However, what we know about a GE in 2029 is precisely zero. You might as well study the form book before the Grand National of 1967.
Seems Trump is lashing out at Zelenskyy saying he won't put up with him any longer
My real fear is he turns against Starmer and Macron leaving everyone in a perilous military position
Goodness knows what comes next
Macron gets replaced by LePen shortly and Starmer by Nige. The peril increases substantially.
The test will be for traditional conservative parties.
IF she has a choice between supporting a minority Reform Government led by Farage and a continuing minority Labour Government led by Starmer, which way would Kemi Badenoch jump?
I can't now rule out the possibility of a minority Labour Government supported by both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats as the outcome of the next GE.
Yes, I’d now say that supporting Labour, in that situation, would be the patriotic thing to do.
@yarotrof What the Trump administration seems to be most interested in is engineering a strategic rapprochement with Russia, not in ending the war in Ukraine. Ukraine is supposed to be just currency for that deal, which is why it causes so much anger when it shows agency of its own.
Seems Trump is lashing out at Zelenskyy saying he won't put up with him any longer
My real fear is he turns against Starmer and Macron leaving everyone in a perilous military position
Goodness knows what comes next
Macron gets replaced by LePen shortly and Starmer by Nige. The peril increases substantially.
The test will be for traditional conservative parties.
IF she has a choice between supporting a minority Reform Government led by Farage and a continuing minority Labour Government led by Starmer, which way would Kemi Badenoch jump?
I can't now rule out the possibility of a minority Labour Government supported by both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats as the outcome of the next GE.
Yes, I’d now say that supporting Labour, in that situation, would be the patriotic thing to do.
@yarotrof What the Trump administration seems to be most interested in is engineering a strategic rapprochement with Russia, not in ending the war in Ukraine. Ukraine is supposed to be just currency for that deal, which is why it causes so much anger when it shows agency of its own.
"America will not put up with it for much longer!"
That is incendiary William. I would say the odds are 75% Trump leaves Ukraine to fend for itself and 25% he signs his protection racket deal and insists on new elections and Zelensky is banished to Milton Keynes.
According to the NYT, Zelensky’s “long way to go” was supposed to be part of an attempt to smooth it over again with the White House, and was simply meant as a way to describe the collective efforts necessary for peace.
Seems like Trump’s in no mood for that.
This shows why interpreters are vital. Zelensky was ill-advised to walk into what he must have known was a trap, but to do so relying on his own limited English was stupid. It is not just translation; interpreters mean Vance shuts up for a bit so people can think before they react.
Sir Humphrey – if you must do this damn silly thing, don't do it in this damn silly way.
The new director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, questioned whether Ukraine and the United States really share common values and extended her critique to European countries who rallied around Mr. Zelensky, saying, they “don’t stand with us around these fundamental values of freedom.”
I do believe we are witnessing a slow reverse ferret in at least one Trumpist sections of the Daily Telegraph, with an "oh ... reality is over there" process. Although they managed to attach some blame to the European Union. Kemi being talked up, Nigel Farage being talked down a little.
Given that the Daily T podcast is Camilla Tominey of Reform TV aka GB News, it may be there as well in due course. GB News has just defenestrated Darren Grimes, so mysterious happenings may be afoot - perhaps to do with the £100k a day they are losing.
@yarotrof What the Trump administration seems to be most interested in is engineering a strategic rapprochement with Russia, not in ending the war in Ukraine. Ukraine is supposed to be just currency for that deal, which is why it causes so much anger when it shows agency of its own.
Comments
They’re whingeing about a tiny amount of UK public spending going to support Ukraine, rather than being spent on benefits.
NEW: YouGov poll on whether Donald Trump's state visit to the UK should still go ahead:
✔️43% say it should.
❌42% say it should be cancelled.
First we were celebrating Starmer's nauseating but effective diplomacy in the Oval Office; then going all in on the outrage on the ambush on Zelensky (justifiably); then mocking Starmer for being so naive; now we are back to urging realpolitik from the government.
The order has been upended so it makes sense that we've lost our footing.
I think Trump would like Russia to be part of the not-China team in the way that Nixon wanted China to be part of the not-Russia team. I think Trump would personally quite like to see Europe crushed beneath Putin's shiny boots just for being so bloody European.
At the same time Zelensky and his actions are supported by Britons by 60% to 12%.
So I would suggest that both you and those callers are not representative of British public opinion, which is much closer to the PB concensus.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1896540092338250233
In some ways a clever tactic by him, he knew in the US 2 party FPTP dominated system he would never get far with his own party so he and his supporters basically took over the GOP instead
PB is representative of my circle of friends and colleagues but I accept that they are not a representative group.
My daughter is absolutely spitting at Trump and Vance, and she is normally uninterested in politics.
On a smaller stage it took some time for Ruth Davidson to get noticed - she struggled at first - before she upended expectations and made a positive impact in what is usually a pretty unpromising environment for a Tory. Could Kemi become a Ruth. Or is she IDS mk2?
Tory voters support a Trump state visit by an 11% margin, Reform voters support a Trump state visit by a massive 53% margin
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2025/03/03/b3722/1
Le Pen, like Meloni, seems more alert to the threat that Putin poses.
Wars are often popular as they start, much less so as they develop. I think that one of the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Starting military adventures without a clear plan to achieve the desired objectives and to disengage is something that we have done far too often. It often doesn't benefit either the countries we intervene in or our own benefit.
Clearly Trump trying to drive a wedge between Starmer and the EU
@AndrewDesiderio
·
1h
Congress passed legislation in 2023 that prevents any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without congressional approval.
The lead GOP author?
Marco Rubio
Very little is being asked of us.
Just 7% blame Zelensky and 12% both equally, albeit 26% of Reform voters blame Ukraine's President and 20% both equally.
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1896602760415740405
I realise it probably isn't quite the time for Starmer to be saying this publically, but I sure as hell hope we are planning as though America is absent, and even considering what we might do is America becomes hostile.
Close European bases, bring home the troops and use it as an excuse to cut defence spending.
Reform vs Labour
Lab: 35%
Reform: 31%
Reform vs Conservative
Con: 26%
Reform: 25%
Reform vs Lib Dem
Lib Dem: 36%
Reform: 29%
In the event that only Reform UK and Labour stood a chance of winning in a seat...
How do current Con voters vote?
Reform: 50%
Labour: 10%
Stick with Con: 24%
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1896577072753000547
In the event that only Reform UK and the Lib Dems stood a chance of winning in a seat...
How do current Con voters vote?
Reform: 42%
Lib Dem: 20%
Stick with Con: 24%
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1896577069288763722
Well he might not get his Nobel Peace Prize but Trump's mark on history is going to be significant, although I fear not in a good way.
(ETA: in answer to your question, yes I did confuse myself whilst writing the paragraph above!)
In some ways, being attacked by others for being too close to Trump serves his purposes right now as Trump's relationships are so personal - you can imagine Starmer ringing Trump and saying 'I'm fighting like hell to keep UK and Europe with you, what can you give me to make this easier?'
Was it you Cookie who said Starmer should get more credit than Davey because he has the difficult (impossible?) job of actually being PM in the middle of this shitshow. I wholeheartedly endorse that.
So I'll ask the old question: if we don't support Ukraine now, when do we support an attacked country? When Russia goes after the Baltics? After Poland (ha!)? After Romania?
It'll be *much* harder then.
We did not have a clear plan to 'disengage' when we entered World War 2, did we? We did it because it was the right thing to do, and we were facing a fascist, imperialist country (three, in fact, if you stretch fascism to include 1930s Japan).
The parallels with 1938 are clear and frightening. Which means we need to learn the lessons from back then.
Ed is holding Starmer's mistakes to the fire. Kemi needs to do the same. A big political opportunity for her to get fully on board with Europe.
As representative as PB?
A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.
For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.
So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.
Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.
I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.
But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.
Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.
And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.
There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It?s all surface.
Some Americans might see this as refreshingly upfront.
Well, we don’t. We see it as having no inner world, no soul.
And in Britain we traditionally side with David, not Goliath. All our heroes are plucky underdogs: Robin Hood, Dick Whittington, Oliver Twist.
Trump is neither plucky, nor an underdog. He is the exact opposite of that.
He’s not even a spoiled rich-boy, or a greedy fat-cat.
He’s more a fat white slug. A Jabba the Hutt of privilege.
And worse, he is that most unforgivable of all things to the British: a bully.
That is, except when he is among bullies; then he suddenly transforms into a snivelling sidekick instead.
There are unspoken rules to this stuff - the Queensberry rules of basic decency - and he breaks them all. He punches downwards - which a gentleman should, would, could never do - and every blow he aims is below the belt. He particularly likes to kick the vulnerable or voiceless - and he kicks them when they are down.
So the fact that a significant minority - perhaps a third - of Americans look at what he does, listen to what he says, and then think 'Yeah, he seems like my kind of guy? is a matter of some confusion and no little distress to British people, given that:
* Americans are supposed to be nicer than us, and mostly are.
* You don't need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man.
This last point is what especially confuses and dismays British people, and many other people too; his faults seem pretty bloody hard to miss.
After all, it’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit. His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum.
God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid.
He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart.
In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws - he would make a Trump.
And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish:
'My God? what? have? I? created?
If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set.
My real fear is he turns against Starmer and Macron leaving everyone in a perilous military position
Goodness knows what comes next
I'm equivocal about that but it seems such a force has to be European rather than UN for example.
Seems like Trump’s in no mood for that.
"We need to stop the boats": "you're volunteering to head out to the channel on a cold Monday morning and personally sink them are you?"
"We need to clamp down on multinational tax avoidance": "So you'll be personally sifting through the tax returns to identify tax adjustments then?"
"NHS waiting lists have to come down": "Oh right, so I assume you armchair surgeons will be heading out to the operating theatres to bring it down yourselves?"
The new director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, questioned whether Ukraine and the United States really share common values and extended her critique to European countries who rallied around Mr. Zelensky, saying, they “don’t stand with us around these fundamental values of freedom.”
But surprising it doesn't touch on the block capitals. He is a president who does everything in block capitals. I wish this was just a metaphor.
On the micro scale, a huge proportion of the components used in weapons come from the US. Open up a 'European' missile and two thirds of the components inside will be of US origin. Take large capacity FPGA chips, which are widespread in military hardware. All the vendors of these are either US or Chinese, nobody in Europe makes them.
Fixing that probably entails throwing money at a manufacturer like ST Micro and waiting a decade for them to spin up their own FPGA family.
For someone who said he wanted to return power to Britain from foreign interference and control he certainly doing his best to give it all away again.
So, Elon, what first attracted you to Presidential candidate Donald Trump?
Americans struggle with irony, and are slightly more receptive to Trumpian wit such as it is.
I have heard some criticism that Starmer misread the post Berlin Wall peace dividend. I'm not sure what more he personally could have done, but as the incumbent he carries the can for 35 years of inertia.
It just dawned on me that the relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is suspiciously close—and closed—in the same way the relationship between Trump and Putin is.
Then I remembered the WSJ report revealing Musk speaks with Putin regularly.
Then I understood everything.
Tulsi Gabbard, on the other hand, is either exceptionally stupid or working for Putin.
Or both, of course.
Rather ironic in a way. They and their far left bedfellows have been insisting the 2014 events were a CIA-backed colour revolution and a coup to install a pro-Western government, in spite of copious evidence to the contrary. They are trying to make the same arguments about Georgia. Now they want to engineer an actual US-backed coup in Ukraine in plain sight.
IF she has a choice between supporting a minority Reform Government led by Farage and a continuing minority Labour Government led by Starmer, which way would Kemi Badenoch jump?
I can't now rule out the possibility of a minority Labour Government supported by both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats as the outcome of the next GE.
I don't know the extent to which they are dependent on US components.
I don't think Zelensky is long, he will be replaced by Zaluzhnyi before the end of the year imo
I wonder how historians will account for this wholesale sell-out.
What the Trump administration seems to be most interested in is engineering a strategic rapprochement with Russia, not in ending the war in Ukraine. Ukraine is supposed to be just currency for that deal, which is why it causes so much anger when it shows agency of its own.
Sir Humphrey – if you must do this damn silly thing, don't do it in this damn silly way.
We support freedom, they wish to suppress it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8_LR8_m4YY
Given that the Daily T podcast is Camilla Tominey of Reform TV aka GB News, it may be there as well in due course. GB News has just defenestrated Darren Grimes, so mysterious happenings may be afoot - perhaps to do with the £100k a day they are losing.
(Speculating furiously !)