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A fortnight on – politicalbetting.com
A fortnight on – politicalbetting.com
This is a pretty detailed case and most of the reasons are pretty obvious. But here's one factor that I think has been overlooked. pic.twitter.com/G2iz6Or2sD
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Am only asking questions.
So we just finish up with Harris and her friend. It might be too thin to be really convincing, but when the alternative is the lumbering oaf.
Can we dare to dream on any of these?
Any of them value in the 5 to 9 odds range?
Especially in light of some of the issues with Shapiro that might turn off the left of the party.
Yes, Harris needs Pennsylvania. But past history of campaigns suggests that it is far from certain that a VP pick delivers their home state.
I increasingly think that Kelly is the safe pick.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.230123396
Florida is 3.5s
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.229997015
And Texas is 2.16s
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.230123858
But these are markets with no liquidity at the moment.
VP Harris is meeting separately, in person today with Gov Tim Walz (D-MN), Gov Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Sen Mark Kelly (D-AZ),
@Yamiche
reports #veepstakes
I'd like to get matched at:
Ohio 8
Florida 7
Texas 6
That sort of level.
Seems most people at the Euros came down with it. I have, anecdotally, heard of more cases of Covid in the last month or so than for more than a year. Its disrupting trials etc in a way we haven't seen since 2022.
Possibly a word or two from plod on Russian bots and others stirring it up, as when they abruptly shut down the thousands of pro-Putin comments a year or two ago.
This is what makes me think Reform might simply melt into the Tories at the next GE. Farage does not have the heart. He doesn’t really want to be MP for Clacton. He doesn’t want to spend his last vital years as some firebrand demagogue who doesn’t change much and gets a lot of grief
He’s 60? I reckon he might bow out in a year or two and claim he steered the Tories in a more reform-y direction. And without Farage reform are nothing
That should be a source of solace for the Tories. But my god they need to seize the opportunity
F-16s in Ukraine.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1820097797556765019
It is much more difficult to control immigration from the pushed people, than the pulled. (Of course, many immigrants have both kinds of motivations.)
Economists tend to pay most attention to the "pull" immigrants; Christians, even of the cultural variety like myself, tend to pay most attention to the "push" immigrants.
Second, neither group pays as much attention to the character of would-be immigrants as we should. If we had, then, for example, we might have excluded Donald Trump's paternal grandfather.
(the author wishes to emphasise this is an idle fancy and not backed up by my cash. DYOR)
They are not about making a better Britain.
They are about Farage.
Until it became possible.
If they rallies turn into riots I could see it helping Harris.
(hopefully of course it doesn't happen)
Co-lin Powell
"Commola" Harris
Why do Americans have such stupid names?
And a pogrom is taking place 20 mins away from me.
Example: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/29/mesa-arizona-mayor-john-giles-endorses-harris/74596202007/ (Mesa is the third largest city in Arizona.)
The criminal, violent attack on a hotel housing asylum seekers in Rotherham is utterly appalling. Deliberately setting fire to a building with people known to be inside.
South Yorkshire Police have full Government support for the strongest action against those responsible.
@REWearmouth
PM @Keir_Starmer on the riots: “I guarantee you will regret taking part in this disorder, whether directly or those whipping up this action online and running away themselves.
“This is not protest. It is organised, violent thuggery and it has no place on our streets or online.”
He’s already kind of “won”. He made a mockery of his critics by becoming an MP. Reforms large vote probably will influence the Tory leadership election
He can quasi-retire as one of the most significant British politicians of the 21st century. That’s what I predict
He will then become a kind of told-you-so elder statesman
Like Farage's attitude towards the people of Clacton.
I think most people have everyone elses back in the UK. We're just British and that's a mixed bag but I'm sure we quite like it,
He hasn't set up surgery.
A recall petition would be a fitting end
Keir Starmer says that riots over the past week are 'far-right thuggery'
'There is no justification - none - for taking this action. All right minded people should be condemning this sort of violence.
'People in this country have a right to be safe and yet we have seen Muslim communities targeted, attacks on mosques, other minority communities singled out, Nazi salutes in the street, attacks on the police, wanton violence alongside racist rhetoric
'So no I won't shy away from calling it what it is - far-right thuggery'
He says government will do 'whatever it takes to bring these thugs to justice as quickly as possible'
One rioter in Middlesbrough was filmed stopping cars asking: “Are you white?”
Now rioters are looting a store
A more well-judged speech might have been to say that whilst anger at the horrifying crimes was understandable and that he understood concerns around recent migration, he needed time to work on these issues, and for now, given that protests were being hijacked by a lawless minority, he urged people to stay at home, and punish Labour at the ballot box in the next election if it had failed on immigration and security matters.
But you’re wrong. I did that latest “find your position on the political compass” test a few weeks ago. I ended up EXACTLY on the spot occupied by the Tories
I thought - “hold on, that can’t be right. I despise the weak blairite lefty Tories”
Then I realised: the compass is based on the avowed policies and ideologies of the parties, not what they actually do. So I am a classic Tory voter it’s just that the Tory party never does what it says it will do, it does things way to the left
It’s the Tory party that deserted me and became new Labour. I simply want a classic Tory government. Low tax small state reduce immigration promote integration be patriotic and get the economy racing with enterprise. Is that too much to ask??
Not as daft as naming yourself after a Bond novel,though.
Ha. I like that.
I don't think Farage is a fascist, but I do think he's willing to use people who are fascist-leaning towards propelling himself forwards.
Does he mention any of this? No. And that’s a massive error because the Two Tier Kier thing is clever and it will stick
Go ahead and lock up every looting skinhead for years. It must be done. But don’t look one way only
Free legal advice:
You don’t have to attend a riot to be prosecuted for conspiracy to riot. You don’t have to be present at a terrorist incident to be guilty of encouraging it.
A lot of Twitter warriors will be getting some unpleasant knocks on the door over the coming weeks.
Related: Edward Banfield's "Rioting mainly for fun and profit".
Example that sticks in my mind: In one of the big "race" riots in Detroit, something like 10 percent of the rioters were white who -- it is rude to suggest this, I admit -- may have been looking for 10-finger discounts, rather than protesting racial injustice.
It's pretty hard to radically disagree with much of what someone stands for and yet entirely embrace them as a fellow person. Or at least to phrase such a thing.
Reform needs a young leader, who is extremely organized and not unafraid of hard work: a sort of Marine Le Pen character, who is not afraid to roll her sleeves up, do the policy work, and get the local municipalities and mayors under the belt.
I don't think Farage is that person. I can see him getting lots of limelight, and attracting a fair number of votes... but breaking through is hard... and hard work. Farage does not have the advantage of taking over a political party with volunteers, money, a brand and thousands of local councillors who are willing to hit the streets.
If - however - a younger leader were to emerge (and Farage is no spring chicken of course), then things could look very different very fast.
The government as a whole, and I don't mean this particular administration, seems to be blindsided by social media trolls and bots despite their existence for years (and not just Brexit!). Serious questions should be asked about our cybersecurity infrastructure and whether the NCSC remit is adequate.
*which means never complaining about migration or whether it's having a negative affect on your life or community again.
Under Harris the Democrats appear to have abandoned the self-denying cringe, which has previously prevented their responding to Trump style campaigning in the appropriate manner.
I hope they keep it up.
As @rcs1000 says the big change might come if Reform find a young charismatic new leader. I have wondered if Matt Goodwin could do it - he’s a persuasive speaker and he’s smart
If that happens they could break through. But I don’t believe it will and I reckon reform will fade and merge with the Tories de facto or de jure
"are you on the side of brick throwers, or do you want to be one of the good, nice people"
Everybody should know the right answer to that
"which means never complaining about migration or whether it's having a negative affect on your life or community again"
Bollocks
You can complain, you can vote. We just had an election. The racists didn't win.
What you can't do is attempt murder.
This is not complicated.
We need to bring back shame punishment and corporal punishment. As the prisons are full but we still need deterrence
I’ve no idea why we are so squeamish about inflicting physical or social pain when we put people in jail for years - which is mental torture and also horribly expensive and wasteful and encourages people to form criminal links
Two weeks of having pepper spray squirted in your eyes would deter a lot of people from ever repeating a crime but it causes no long term damage and you can immediately return to society
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1820052476818587976
Compare and contrast. Boro has morons smashing up new build houses and asking drivers if they’re white. Across the A66 in Stockton it’s the International Festival with the town full of people from all over Europe doing art and culture.
TL:DR; the Ukrainians will only be able to use them in a very limited combat role; they will not have enough for their needs for a long time; and the training to get them flying is only the beginning, despite the limited roles.
Well worth a watch IMO, as everything with Bronk in is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLcfS0ki950
This is really grim.
I don't care about a few Muslims holding knives actually, they might have been next as they were defending themselves against themselves lot.
Sad to say but sometimes you need to defend yourself by any means to not die.
It's low hanging fruit for the police, and likely quite a few normal-ish people who will get caught up in it. Councillors, small business owners and so on. I've even warned some older relatives who are physically harmless but can get a bit excitable on Facebook.
I've previously noted that IDS is rather brave in his support of ULEZ vandals. Tory/Reform MPs are gonna have to be careful.
What makes you think it's not about narcissism? It's certainly not about helping the people of Clacton, is it, given the amount of time he spends there? You know, the job he's been elected to do, and is paid to do.
Farage is about Farage.
Don't like someone? Really, really want to shut them up for good? Go along with swedes with half a brick hidden in them. Or pay some neds in the pub to do it for you.
And there would be further rioting if your supporters clashed with the other lot.