On topic, I think the approval ratings of the VP options dont really tell us much because not very many of them are tremendously well known.
Off topic and I know there is a lot hand wringing going on with the recent protest and dust ups happening around the country at the moment, but I think we can consider ourselves very fortunate that those involved
Have no overall objective & strategy Havent the technical means to be more effective Havent the will either
I see none of those. If the core message is send illegal immigrants out then I get it but, is it? It may be part of it but the actions only marginally reach towards that objective.
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
These scenes are not only grim. They will be recorded for all time
"taped to every job application you'll ever make..."
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
These scenes are not only grim. They will be recorded for all time
Events in the Middle East over the (last/current/next) (weeks/months/years/decades/centuries) make it fairly obvious that there isn't really a fag paper between all three of the Abrahamic religions in terms of potential brutality, just depends on whose interpretation is holding sway at the time.
Leon, kyf_1000, etc are absolutely right that there is a sectarianism issue but while religious labels might be accurate in one sense they're also extremely unhelpful in terms of whose backs they put up. Much like racial ones. Or indeed talking about the one group everyone loves to hate - gypsies. Take more hatred than anyone those guys. Really obvious genuine issues too within traveller community that no one discusses rationally. But Appleby Horse Fair is a great laugh. Not sure where I'm going with this and now I've been told to wash some baby bottles. Bollocks.
lol. Thanks for some grounding domestic reality
If anyone fancies a break from real life death and terror can I recommend THOSE ABOUT TO DIE on Amazon prime. It’s greatly entertaining classic swords and gladiators melodrama
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
These scenes are not only grim. They will be recorded for all time
"taped to every job application you'll ever make..."
This is not the first time I have raised in the chamber that residents of Tamworth want their hotel back. I will work closely with the new Government and Home Secretary to end the use of the Holiday Inn for asylum purposes.
Again, for those at the back:
Complaining that a hotel is used for a reason you don’t like: fine (though quite why it’s anyone’s business who a hotel sells its rooms to I don’t know). Attacking a hotel with people in it: not fine.
The difficulty (and I doubt it is the case in Tamworth) is when a hotel in a village is the only meeting place, and where mum & toddler groups rent out its conference room, and so on. Once the hotel is given over to Asylum seekers, all ancillary functions cease.
You’re all too fucking stupid (or wilfully ignorant) to read the fucking post.
Targeting people, and the places they live, with violence is not protest. There is a more accurate word for it. A Pogrom.
No. Twat. You questioned why it should be “anyone’s business” who a hotel sells its rooms too
When it is YOUR taxes paying for that crucial hotel to be closed down and given to asylum seekers then you very much have a say and you are very much allowed to be annoyed. You’re not allowed to burn it down but my god yes you’re allowed to be angry
You didn’t understand this because you are a pathetic failure of a petit boogie wine grower who lives in fucking BALHAM
hmmm. Do I detect....? No, it couldn't be.... Could it?
Oh I hadn't considered that.
Babbage was of course famously assisted by Ada Lovelace. The only legitimate child of Byron. Just saying.
And 9 - the regeneration number ?
Babbage is also a contraction of babble-cabbage. Though I’m not sure that takes us anywhere.
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
They can't be that stupid. It must be that they don't care what happens to them next, which is every worse.
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
These scenes are not only grim. They will be recorded for all time
"taped to every job application you'll ever make..."
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
Of course they won't work, because deterrence in sentencing is in most circumstances of fairly minimal use. The legal profession and the general populace is convinced they do work though so que sera sera
The length of the sentence really doesn’t seem to affect propensity to crime or reoffending. The fact of being caught seems to be the main thing.
Or killed. Arson of an occupied building is a threat to life. Reasonable force should be used to prevent it.
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
Of course they won't work, because deterrence in sentencing is in most circumstances of fairly minimal use. The legal profession and the general populace is convinced they do work though so que sera sera
The length of the sentence really doesn’t seem to affect propensity to crime or reoffending. The fact of being caught seems to be the main thing.
Or killed. Arson of an occupied building is a threat to life. Reasonable force should be used to prevent it.
It was amazing more people didn't die in 2010 riots. They were burning buildings down left, right and centre.
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
They can't be that stupid. It must be that they don't care what happens to them next, which is every worse.
If you take part in a riot you're not the kind of person who thinks things through. They don't realise with a criminal conviction you won't normally even get a job stacking shelves at Tesco.
What’s the non-racist way of protesting against mass immigration?
Vote! If you're unhappy with the way the country is being run, vote!
The other way to show you're not a racist is not be a racist claiming that the Southport perp was a migrant muslim, not targeting mosques, not chanting anti-muslim abuse, not stopping only non-whites from driving past you etc etc etc.
The simple truth is that its not possible for these racists to protest in a non-racist way because they are racists.
So reading between your lines, you're saying that there is no way that you would ever approve of people taking to the streets to protest about immigration.
I can see why any mass protest about the issue of immigration is problematical to some degree, because of the potential to make minority communities feel afraid, and of course the tendency for such protests to spill over into violence.
On the other hand though, the right to free assembly probably takes precedence over that and suggests that protests about any political issue however controversial should be allowable, though policed absolutely rigidly to avoid such scenes like those we've witnessed this week.
On what planet do you draw that conclusion?
Protest? Do it. Peacefully. Burning hotels and smashing cars driven by anyone who isn't white? No.
Whether we like it or not, violence done properly can pay off. The stuff underway may not and is likely to settle down.
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
These scenes are not only grim. They will be recorded for all time
"taped to every job application you'll ever make..."
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
They can't be that stupid. It must be that they don't care what happens to them next, which is every worse.
If you take part in a riot you're not the kind of person who thinks things through. They don't realise with a criminal conviction you won't normally even get a job stacking shelves at Tesco.
I remember discussing consequences and the theory of them with an Australian friend who grew up in a town where Bikies were a thing.
He patiently explained that in that culture, not only was their horizon for consequences about 15 seconds into the future. But they like it that way.
This is not the first time I have raised in the chamber that residents of Tamworth want their hotel back. I will work closely with the new Government and Home Secretary to end the use of the Holiday Inn for asylum purposes.
Again, for those at the back:
Complaining that a hotel is used for a reason you don’t like: fine (though quite why it’s anyone’s business who a hotel sells its rooms to I don’t know). Attacking a hotel with people in it: not fine.
When these hotels are used by the government for asylum seekers they don't just rent out rooms but take over the whole building, so local people who might have previously used the amenities like health clubs or restaurants suddenly can't.
Putting illegal asylum seekers into hotels. Is this something recently introduced by the Starmer Government?
Condemning rioters and backing Trump is not a coherent position.
Trump caps also spotted amongst the street fighting men. What a surprise.
Has Trump shill Nigel National-Treasure apologised for prompting the false narrative which stoked up this violence, namely that the Southport alleged murderer was a Syrian Asylum Seeker? No, I thought not.
The largesr proportion of the violence has clearly been in Norther or Midland post-industrial towns where Farage clearly encouraged people to blame immigrants for various woes, during the Brexit debate.
Virtually nothing in London si far, which also has much higher recent immigration. Many of these people targeted in the post-industrial towns also seem to be simple minorities, not immigrants.
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
They will at least in the sense that the cretin involved will be off the streets for eight years.
Yebbut .. I thought the country was meant to have run out of prison cells to put people in?
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
They will at least in the sense that the cretin involved will be off the streets for eight years.
Yebbut .. I thought the country was meant to have run out of prison cells to put people in?
They could start using hotels, but the Far Right seem to be burning them to the ground...
This is not the first time I have raised in the chamber that residents of Tamworth want their hotel back. I will work closely with the new Government and Home Secretary to end the use of the Holiday Inn for asylum purposes.
Again, for those at the back:
Complaining that a hotel is used for a reason you don’t like: fine (though quite why it’s anyone’s business who a hotel sells its rooms to I don’t know). Attacking a hotel with people in it: not fine.
When these hotels are used by the government for asylum seekers they don't just rent out rooms but take over the whole building, so local people who might have previously used the amenities like health clubs or restaurants suddenly can't.
Condemning rioters and backing Trump is not a coherent position.
Trump caps also spotted amongst the street fighting men. What a surprise.
Has Trump shill Nigel National-Treasure apologised for prompting the false narrative which stoked up this violence, namely that the Southport alleged murderer was a Syrian Asylum Seeker? No, I thought not.
Why is Farage getting away with this?
Because people are scared of him. They’re stuck in a state of dumb indecision because they fear giving him more publicity. But that approach simply doesn’t work, as anti-Trump Americans will testify.
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
They will at least in the sense that the cretin involved will be off the streets for eight years.
Yebbut .. I thought the country was meant to have run out of prison cells to put people in?
They could start using hotels, but the Far Right seem to be burning them to the ground...
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
They can't be that stupid. It must be that they don't care what happens to them next, which is every worse.
If you take part in a riot you're not the kind of person who thinks things through. They don't realise with a criminal conviction you won't normally even get a job stacking shelves at Tesco.
Not really true tbh (although I can't speak for Tesco specifically!) as about 1/3rd of men in UK have a criminal conviction. And that doesn't include stuff like speeding - it's "standard list offence". Only going to get worse with the constant criminalisation of every damn thing. Which ironically makes those who have serious criminal convictions face less issues. And for most occupations even a relatively serious offence is not necessarily a huge deal. While I have not committed anything especially serious, I do have a ten month suspended sentence for drugs stuff more than a decade ago and it hasn't been more of a problem than being embarrassing and meaning I had to go to quite a bit of effort to get a visa for US.
I agree though that taking part in a riot is very dumb, because it is the stuff for which you get serious tellings off in the form of actual prison etc. Going along to watch though is awesome.
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
Of course they won't work, because deterrence in sentencing is in most circumstances of fairly minimal use. The legal profession and the general populace is convinced they do work though so que sera sera
The length of the sentence really doesn’t seem to affect propensity to crime or reoffending. The fact of being caught seems to be the main thing.
Or killed. Arson of an occupied building is a threat to life. Reasonable force should be used to prevent it.
It was amazing more people didn't die in 2010 riots. They were burning buildings down left, right and centre.
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
Of course they won't work, because deterrence in sentencing is in most circumstances of fairly minimal use. The legal profession and the general populace is convinced they do work though so que sera sera
The length of the sentence really doesn’t seem to affect propensity to crime or reoffending. The fact of being caught seems to be the main thing.
Or killed. Arson of an occupied building is a threat to life. Reasonable force should be used to prevent it.
It was amazing more people didn't die in 2010 riots. They were burning buildings down left, right and centre.
They weren't targeting civilians like now.
Thankfully nobody has died so far. Lets hope it dies down over the next few days and the police can get on arresting people.
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
They can't be that stupid. It must be that they don't care what happens to them next, which is every worse.
If you take part in a riot you're not the kind of person who thinks things through. They don't realise with a criminal conviction you won't normally even get a job stacking shelves at Tesco.
A lot of them are probably long-term out-of-work anyway.
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
They will at least in the sense that the cretin involved will be off the streets for eight years.
Yebbut .. I thought the country was meant to have run out of prison cells to put people in?
They could start using hotels, but the Far Right seem to be burning them to the ground...
So much self and collective radicalisation on Twitter.
Lawrence Fox, for instance, has moved to full-on fascist rhetoric, talking about "Starmer supporting the rape of thousands of British girls but immigrant barbarians".
As also, once again, no moderation, which if it continues, the security services will have to act on.
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
They can't be that stupid. It must be that they don't care what happens to them next, which is every worse.
If you take part in a riot you're not the kind of person who thinks things through. They don't realise with a criminal conviction you won't normally even get a job stacking shelves at Tesco.
A lot of them are probably long-term out-of-work anyway.
There is a big scandal of in some areas there is a significant proportion of not only people on long term out of work, but it is now inter-generational, where the whole family are.
Just watched Starmer’s speech from this afternoon. An odd statement. The law and order aspect in terms of wanting to restore order was on point.
But he then completely undid that with a frankly incredible insinuation that white racists have held a monopoly over violence this week. Anyone with a smart phone can see that’s not been the case and that we’re facing something more complex than a hardcore of No Surrender types causing unprovoked trouble.
If you don't want to be insinuated don't take part in racist violent thuggery, or encourage it. Starmer isn't obliged to say, and for the sake of balance what about these other people?
I'm content for the courts to deal with the lot of them. Starmer isn't involved.
A rather puzzling take. He chose to make his speech overtly political, in a way that is unlikely to calm tensions. And which over the medium term, may well undermine his own position.
Starmer saying anyone attacking the police property or immigrants will face the full force of the law is being 'overtly political'? The morons are out in force today and they've spilled onto PB
Just watched Starmer’s speech from this afternoon. An odd statement. The law and order aspect in terms of wanting to restore order was on point.
But he then completely undid that with a frankly incredible insinuation that white racists have held a monopoly over violence this week. Anyone with a smart phone can see that’s not been the case and that we’re facing something more complex than a hardcore of No Surrender types causing unprovoked trouble.
If you don't want to be insinuated don't take part in racist violent thuggery, or encourage it. Starmer isn't obliged to say, and for the sake of balance what about these other people?
I'm content for the courts to deal with the lot of them. Starmer isn't involved.
A rather puzzling take. He chose to make his speech overtly political, in a way that is unlikely to calm tensions. And which over the medium term, may well undermine his own position.
Starmer saying anyone attacking the police property or immigrants will face the full force of the law is being 'overtly political'? The morons are out in force today and they've spilled onto PB
He chose to direct his comments purely to one side in the protest, while the other side is also attacking lone individuals.
So much self and collective radicalisation on Twitter.
Lawrence Fox, for instance, has moved to full-on fascist rhetoric, talking about "Starmer supporting the rape of thousands of British girls but immigrant barbarians".
As also, once again, no moderation, which if it continues, the security services will have to act on.
Why have there been no prosecutions of social media companies and misinformation?
Really not sure. Irans response options direct at Israel itself are fairly crude, i.e. launch a barrage at Israeli territory.
Its a stretch to see them pull off something as precision as the killing of the top end Hezbollah & Hamas blokeys. So an equivalent eye for an eye assasination approach, which would be considered within an acceptable level of response, might be taking out a senior Israeli official or politician or government site. That might be easier to achieve on an overseas target such a diplomat, embassy or similar.
Other options due to the difficulties of such a precise high level kill inside Israel are: 1. Hostage taking of civilians possibly through Hezbollah or others on the Israeli border or again overseas. Bearing in mind there are 150 000-200 000 or so Israelis abroad, its an option. Its also a total pain for the Israeli government. 2. Due to inability to militarily attrack Israel effectively other than bombardment, just have a go at stuff that causes global disruption, such as was seen via the Houthis. Its a shit weak position but it is seen as maybe forcing pressure on Israel. 3. Just go for something to kill as many Israelis as possible at home or overseas, therefore making it likely to be an attack on non combatants
If you look at the evac orders from nations and international agencies, everything seems to be around Israel & Lebanon, particularly Beirut, perhaps indicating the direction of action and reaction.
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
They will at least in the sense that the cretin involved will be off the streets for eight years.
Yebbut .. I thought the country was meant to have run out of prison cells to put people in?
They could start using hotels, but the Far Right seem to be burning them to the ground...
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
They can't be that stupid. It must be that they don't care what happens to them next, which is every worse.
If you take part in a riot you're not the kind of person who thinks things through. They don't realise with a criminal conviction you won't normally even get a job stacking shelves at Tesco.
Not really true tbh (although I can't speak for Tesco specifically!) as about 1/3rd of men in UK have a criminal conviction. And that doesn't include stuff like speeding - it's "standard list offence". Only going to get worse with the constant criminalisation of every damn thing. Which ironically makes those who have serious criminal convictions face less issues. And for most occupations even a relatively serious offence is not necessarily a huge deal. While I have not committed anything especially serious, I do have a ten month suspended sentence for drugs stuff more than a decade ago and it hasn't been more of a problem than being embarrassing and meaning I had to go to quite a bit of effort to get a visa for US.
I agree though that taking part in a riot is very dumb, because it is the stuff for which you get serious tellings off in the form of actual prison etc. Going along to watch though is awesome.
Do you have a citation for that 1/3 number? Fascinating if true.
So much self and collective radicalisation on Twitter.
Lawrence Fox, for instance, has moved to full-on fascist rhetoric, talking about "Starmer supporting the rape of thousands of British girls but immigrant barbarians".
As also, once again, no moderation, which if it continues, the security services will have to act on.
You mean the law, the security services have no play to act on it.
If this was happening 40 years ago I wonder whether some police chiefs may have ordered their officers to douse the rioters in ice cold water to calm them down, but you get the impression they wouldn't be allowed to do that today in case it was against procedure, etc.
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
These scenes are not only grim. They will be recorded for all time
Unless the BBC delete them all.
It's the next logical stage of the Orwellian playbook.
First everything gets recorded and everyone knows everything gets recorded so the record is infallible.
Then the infallible records become subject to editing...
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
Of course they won't work, because deterrence in sentencing is in most circumstances of fairly minimal use. The legal profession and the general populace is convinced they do work though so que sera sera
The most important element of policing and justice is to assure the general public that injustice acts are being fairly punished. When the authorities fail to act - for example, by trying to sweep mass rape at scale away from public attention - the unfortunate consequence tends to be the periodic appearance of mob rule.
So much self and collective radicalisation on Twitter.
Lawrence Fox, for instance, has moved to full-on fascist rhetoric, talking about "Starmer supporting the rape of thousands of British girls but immigrant barbarians".
As also, once again, no moderation, which if it continues, the security services will have to act on.
You mean the law, the security services have no play to act on it.
They could quite easily make certain parts of twitter less accessible if things got more out of control and Musk refused to take any responsibility as usual, one would expect.
Any recourse to legal sanctions on the social media companies would be rather slow on emergencies.
Really not sure. Irans response options direct at Israel itself are fairly crude, i.e. launch a barrage at Israeli territory.
Its a stretch to see them pull off something as precision as the killing of the top end Hezbollah & Hamas blokeys. So an equivalent eye for an eye assasination approach, which would be considered within an acceptable level of response, might be taking out a senior Israeli official or politician or government site. That might be easier to achieve on an overseas target such a diplomat, embassy or similar.
Other options due to the difficulties of such a precise high level kill inside Israel are: 1. Hostage taking of civilians possibly through Hezbollah or others on the Israeli border or again overseas. Bearing in mind there are 150 000-200 000 or so Israelis abroad, its an option. Its also a total pain for the Israeli government. 2. Due to inability to militarily attrack Israel effectively other than bombardment, just have a go at stuff that causes global disruption, such as was seen via the Houthis. Its a shit weak position but it is seen as maybe forcing pressure on Israel. 3. Just go for something to kill as many Israelis as possible at home or overseas, therefore making it likely to be an attack on non combatants
If you look at the evac orders from nations and international agencies, everything seems to be around Israel & Lebanon, particularly Beirut, perhaps indicating the direction of action and reaction.
Can we expect a full barrage of Drones/Rockets/Missiles from multiple actors.Iran/Hezbollah/Iraqi factions testing Iron Domes limit? Hoping to get through and spread terror amongst Israeli citizens. I'm sure it was Tim Marshall who came out with a figure about the Hezbollah arsenal being in the high tens of thousands.
(Quibble: The headline, "Trump’s presidential bid has the support of only half of his Cabinet" is misleading -- but by now I am used to many American journalists not being very good with arithmetic. Better would have been: "Only 24 of the 42 Trump Cabinet Member Support His Candidacy")
Really not sure. Irans response options direct at Israel itself are fairly crude, i.e. launch a barrage at Israeli territory.
Its a stretch to see them pull off something as precision as the killing of the top end Hezbollah & Hamas blokeys. So an equivalent eye for an eye assasination approach, which would be considered within an acceptable level of response, might be taking out a senior Israeli official or politician or government site. That might be easier to achieve on an overseas target such a diplomat, embassy or similar.
Other options due to the difficulties of such a precise high level kill inside Israel are: 1. Hostage taking of civilians possibly through Hezbollah or others on the Israeli border or again overseas. Bearing in mind there are 150 000-200 000 or so Israelis abroad, its an option. Its also a total pain for the Israeli government. 2. Due to inability to militarily attrack Israel effectively other than bombardment, just have a go at stuff that causes global disruption, such as was seen via the Houthis. Its a shit weak position but it is seen as maybe forcing pressure on Israel. 3. Just go for something to kill as many Israelis as possible at home or overseas, therefore making it likely to be an attack on non combatants
If you look at the evac orders from nations and international agencies, everything seems to be around Israel & Lebanon, particularly Beirut, perhaps indicating the direction of action and reaction.
Can we expect a full barrage of Drones/Rockets/Missiles from multiple actors.Iran/Hezbollah/Iraqi factions testing Iron Domes limit? Hoping to get through and spread terror amongst Israeli citizens. I'm sure it was Tim Marshall who came out with a figure about the Hezbollah arsenal being in the high tens of thousands.
The figure is misleading because what matters as much is the number of launchers, plus the figures cover everything from pick up mounted short range rockets to full on ballistic missiles. They cant deploy them all at the same time, plus the window before counter operations degrade them is small, so they have to go for a very big 1-4/5 day hit.
The strange thing wrt the far-right in the UK is that we just had an election at which almost nobody voted for political parties that could be described as far-right, unless you include Reform UK in that category.
The strange thing with regard to the far-right in the UK is that we just had an election at which almost nobody voted for political parties that could be described as far-right, unless you include Reform UK in that category.
The strange thing with regard to the far-right in the UK is that we just had an election at which almost nobody voted for political parties that could be described as far-right, unless you include Reform UK in that category.
The strange thing with regard to the far-right in the UK is that we just had an election at which almost nobody voted for political parties that could be described as far-right, unless you include Reform UK in that category.
Also less than 0.0001% are rioting. It’s not strange at all.
Whereas in France between 33% and 37% actually did vote for an avowedly far-right political alliance/coalition at the recent election. It is a strange contrast.
The strange thing with regard to the far-right in the UK is that we just had an election at which almost nobody voted for political parties that could be described as far-right, unless you include Reform UK in that category.
Also less than 0.0001% are rioting. It’s not strange at all.
Whereas in France between 33% and 37% actually did vote for an avowedly far-right political alliance/coalition at the recent election. It is a strange contrast.
The far right are meaningless nobodies in this country.
Coked up glue sniffers on the streets are meaningless nobodies too.
The strange thing with regard to the far-right in the UK is that we just had an election at which almost nobody voted for political parties that could be described as far-right, unless you include Reform UK in that category.
Also less than 0.0001% are rioting. It’s not strange at all.
Whereas in France between 33% and 37% actually did vote for an avowedly far-right political alliance/coalition at the recent election. It is a strange contrast.
We don't realise how better (relatively speaking) our immigrant communities are. Much data shows this in terms of jobs, income increases for second generation, crime etc. So why would people vote far right when they work with ethnic minorities in Britain. I think France is much more segregated in the housing stock (banlieues) and work place (restrictive hire and fire practices in France) Also France has worse youth unemployment which is long standing.
The strange thing with regard to the far-right in the UK is that we just had an election at which almost nobody voted for political parties that could be described as far-right, unless you include Reform UK in that category.
Also less than 0.0001% are rioting. It’s not strange at all.
Whereas in France between 33% and 37% actually did vote for an avowedly far-right political alliance/coalition at the recent election. It is a strange contrast.
We don't realise how better (relatively speaking) our immigrant communities are. Much data shows this in terms of jobs, income increases for second generation, crime etc. So why would people vote far right when they work with ethnic minorities in Britain. I think France is much more segregated in the housing stock (banlieues) and work place (restrictive hire and fire practices in France) Also France has worse youth unemployment which is long standing.
*Better integrated I meant to say. Compared to Europe. We have our problems but it's better
The largesr proportion of the violence has clearly been in Norther or Midland post-industrial towns where Farage clearly encouraged people to blame immigrants for various woes, during the Brexit debate.
Virtually nothing in London si far, which also has much higher recent immigration. Many of these people targeted in the post-industrial towns also seem to be simple minorities, not immigrants.
London has far too many sensible people of all races and colours for this nonsense.
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
Of course they won't work, because deterrence in sentencing is in most circumstances of fairly minimal use. The legal profession and the general populace is convinced they do work though so que sera sera
The most important element of policing and justice is to assure the general public that injustice acts are being fairly punished. When the authorities fail to act - for example, by trying to sweep mass rape at scale away from public attention - the unfortunate consequence tends to be the periodic appearance of mob rule.
Can you think for yourself or do you just regurgitate the bilge you read on Twitter?
The largesr proportion of the violence has clearly been in Norther or Midland post-industrial towns where Farage clearly encouraged people to blame immigrants for various woes, during the Brexit debate.
Virtually nothing in London si far, which also has much higher recent immigration. Many of these people targeted in the post-industrial towns also seem to be simple minorities, not immigrants.
London has far too many sensible people of all races and colours for this nonsense.
(Quibble: The headline, "Trump’s presidential bid has the support of only half of his Cabinet" is misleading -- but by now I am used to many American journalists not being very good with arithmetic. Better would have been: "Only 24 of the 42 Trump Cabinet Member Support His Candidacy")
The only previous GOP candidate, for either President or VP, who has endorsed him is Palin. Meanwhile, even Jimmy Carter, in a hospice, a few weeks from his 100th birthday, has endorsed Harris.
Wow. For the longest time it was a Manhattan parlor game to try and come up with a weird enough story to explain how a dead bear cub ended up in Central Park. But no one guessed RFK jr. had to drive to JFK but the dead bear in his van needed to be dropped off first. https://x.com/TinaDupuy/status/1820163458354073769
Fascinating that a generation that is supposed to be born digital hasn't grasped that iphone filming your mate burning down a hotel and then sharing it on tiktok complete with a bit of selfie is a very bad move.
They can't be that stupid. It must be that they don't care what happens to them next, which is every worse.
If you take part in a riot you're not the kind of person who thinks things through. They don't realise with a criminal conviction you won't normally even get a job stacking shelves at Tesco.
Not really true tbh (although I can't speak for Tesco specifically!) as about 1/3rd of men in UK have a criminal conviction. And that doesn't include stuff like speeding - it's "standard list offence". Only going to get worse with the constant criminalisation of every damn thing. Which ironically makes those who have serious criminal convictions face less issues. And for most occupations even a relatively serious offence is not necessarily a huge deal. While I have not committed anything especially serious, I do have a ten month suspended sentence for drugs stuff more than a decade ago and it hasn't been more of a problem than being embarrassing and meaning I had to go to quite a bit of effort to get a visa for US.
I agree though that taking part in a riot is very dumb, because it is the stuff for which you get serious tellings off in the form of actual prison etc. Going along to watch though is awesome.
Do you have a citation for that 1/3 number? Fascinating if true.
The thing it links to is no longer there but I think it was supposed to link to https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7c98db40f0b65b3de09ea1/criminal-histories-bulletin.pdf (which actually says something slightly different to what I said - men born in 1953 were 33% probability of having at least one criminal offence - so a lifetime to first approximation rather than population statistic; still the majority of those offences are going to have been committed as young men I should think - even the sexual ones. So I am off by a bit, but not *that* much really)
The largesr proportion of the violence has clearly been in Norther or Midland post-industrial towns where Farage clearly encouraged people to blame immigrants for various woes, during the Brexit debate.
Virtually nothing in London si far, which also has much higher recent immigration. Many of these people targeted in the post-industrial towns also seem to be simple minorities, not immigrants.
London has far too many sensible people of all races and colours for this nonsense.
Say there were all of a sudden far right rallies in upstate Wisconsin or Michigan because some crazy second generation Somalian from Minnesota went on a rampage, who would that help?
If they rallies turn into riots I could see it helping Harris.
(hopefully of course it doesn't happen)
The riots will help Trump & might make it certain that he will win. This has nothing to do with whether the rioters or the current government are right-wing or left-wing. Social unrest will hurt the governing party & help the opponent, because they create a perception that the government has "lost control".
The above is based on the work of Allan Lichtman who has an excellent track record of forecasting US Presidential elections.
His 13 keys model currently gives 8 keys to Harris. If the "No Social Unrest" key flips, then based on the model, Trump will win.
The Tories have been ridiculously lucky not to be in government when these events have started happening. 14 years in government and they avoid them by 5 weeks.
Before I go to bed, another reminder that there is a Polymarket market on the Venezeula election. You know, the one that's happened. That they have results for. And you're gonna make 50% return backing the officially winning side. Or 200% return backing the side that really got the most votes. Market is https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-election-winner?tid=1722651092104
This market is therefore purely on how polymarket will settle it (by a mechanism I won't even try to bother explaining this late at night; if @edmundintokyo is around he may or may not give it a go).
I think Maduro is massive value but I don't bet/invest in things where I have a spidey sense tingling. That's sole reason though. But there is a huge opportunity there for soemone with cojones who can read settlement right. And a pox on whoever defined the market so poorly!
Before I go to bed, another reminder that there is a Polymarket market on the Venezeula election. You know, the one that's happened. That they have results for. And you're gonna make 50% return backing the officially winning side. Or 200% return backing the side that really got the most votes. Market is https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-election-winner?tid=1722651092104
This market is therefore purely on how polymarket will settle it (by a mechanism I won't even try to bother explaining this late at night; if @edmundintokyo is around he may or may not give it a go).
I think Maduro is massive value but I don't bet/invest in things where I have a spidey sense tingling. That's sole reason though. But there is a huge opportunity there for soemone with cojones who can read settlement right. And a pox on whoever defined the market so poorly!
The settlement mechanism is: A vote of anonymous people who may or may not have positions in the market or have taken bribes from people who have.
Wow. For the longest time it was a Manhattan parlor game to try and come up with a weird enough story to explain how a dead bear cub ended up in Central Park. But no one guessed RFK jr. had to drive to JFK but the dead bear in his van needed to be dropped off first. https://x.com/TinaDupuy/status/1820163458354073769
Yeah, that's a weird story:
"He tells Ms Barr that he had the idea of staging a bike accident with the bear carcass in Central Park, which several drunk people with him heartily endorsed. He emphasises that he had not been drinking."
Stock markets in the Far East taking a pounding. Futures down too. Buffet sitting on a cash pile of 2.5 billion dollars sold 400 million Amazon shares recently too. Interesting times especially with enhanced conflict in the Middle East likely this week and the U.K. facing a crisis too. A big test for the new govt. hope they’re up to it.
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
Of course they won't work, because deterrence in sentencing is in most circumstances of fairly minimal use. The legal profession and the general populace is convinced they do work though so que sera sera
The most important element of policing and justice is to assure the general public that injustice acts are being fairly punished. When the authorities fail to act - for example, by trying to sweep mass rape at scale away from public attention - the unfortunate consequence tends to be the periodic appearance of mob rule.
Can you think for yourself or do you just regurgitate the bilge you read on Twitter?
New York Times (via Seattle Times) - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. admits he left a dead bear in Central Park
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent presidential candidate, confessed Sunday that he had left a dead bear cub in Central Park in New York City in 2014 because he thought it would be “amusing.”
Kennedy posted a video detailing the bizarre story on social media apparently ahead of an article in The New Yorker.
“Looking forward to seeing how you spin this one,” he said, tagging the magazine.
In the video, Kennedy appears to be seated in a kitchen as he casually tells actress Roseanne Barr about the ordeal. He says that he was driving through the Hudson Valley when he saw a woman in a van hit and kill a young bear.
“I pulled over and I picked up the bear and put him in the back of my van because I was going to skin the bear,” he says. “It was very good condition and I was going to put the meat in my refrigerator.”
Kennedy then details how he had to attend a dinner at Peter Luger Steak House in New York City and then head to the airport, which meant he had to get rid of the bear. He decided to leave the bear in Central Park with an old bicycle to make it look like it had been hit by the bike.
Kennedy says that he was worried when officials investigated the crime scene, “because my prints were all over that bike.”
Barr listens closely to the story, laughing and looking shocked. Kennedy tells her that fact checkers from The New Yorker asked him about the story: “It’s going to be a bad story.”
Indeed, the bear cub caused quite a stir when it was found in the park in 2014, as reported in The New York Times in an article coincidentally written by Tatiana Schlossberg, a reporter for the Times at that time, and the daughter of Kennedy’s first cousin Caroline Kennedy. A woman was walking her dog in Central Park when she noticed it lying under some bushes, partly concealed by an abandoned bicycle. The cub was 6 months old and 44 pounds.
The state’s Department of Environmental Conservation later found through a necropsy that the cause of death was “blunt force injuries consistent with a motor vehicle collision.”
Schlossberg said on Sunday evening, “Like law enforcement, I had no idea who was responsible for this when I wrote the story.”
Kennedy did not appear to confess that he was behind the incident until now. He tried to explain the unusual circumstances to Barr in the video: “This was a little bit of the redneck in me.”
Stock markets in the Far East taking a pounding. Futures down too. Buffet sitting on a cash pile of 2.5 billion dollars sold 400 million Amazon shares recently too. Interesting times especially with enhanced conflict in the Middle East likely this week and the U.K. facing a crisis too. A big test for the new govt. hope they’re up to it.
So I'd normally buy my full NISA allowance at the beginning of the year but things seemed a bit overheated and JPY was very weak so I held off. Since then I'd been thinking I was a dumbass for trying to market-time.
I just looked at the Nikkei performance and it turns out that... no, it's still up on January and I'm still a dumbass for trying to market-time.
Stock markets in the Far East taking a pounding. Futures down too. Buffet sitting on a cash pile of 2.5 billion dollars sold 400 million Amazon shares recently too. Interesting times especially with enhanced conflict in the Middle East likely this week and the U.K. facing a crisis too. A big test for the new govt. hope they’re up to it.
So I'd normally buy my full NISA allowance at the beginning of the year but things seemed a bit overheated and JPY was very weak so I held off. Since then I'd been thinking I was a dumbass for trying to market-time.
I just looked at the Nikkei performance and it turns out that... no, it's still up on January and I'm still a dumbass for trying to market-time.
I buy every month. A global tracker and a US tracker.
I recall the old Peter Lynch quote along the lines of more fortunes have been lost trying to,time the market than were ever made timing it.
This may be different and a large crash coming but the same people calling this crash have been calling it every year. Law of averages is they will get it right eventually.
As one raised in the hills & hollers, can attest that rednecks, hillbillies, etc. inhabiting/infesting the back (and front) boondocks of USA, the harvesting of fresh roadkill is NOT something rich & rare. For example, my own Daddy Dearest bagged at least three dear without firing a shot; instead, they ran out onto the road in front - or onto - his car.
HOWEVER, even these simple, rural folk are likely LESS sympathetic when instead of actually making some use of the poor bear, such as meat in the freezer and perhaps a bearskin rug, you dump the carcass in a city park - because you had to go to a steak house?
Even suave suburban-and-urbanites will see that as . . . what's the word? Weird!
IN FACT my psephological take, is that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is challenging JD Vance for the Weird Vote. (Along of course with Vance's running mate but of course that's a given.)
Note that in contrast to recovering Hillbilly JDV, who has fled, forsaken AND monetized his Appalachian roots, the 4th Kennedy to run for POTUS is now a self-proclaimed redneck who ain't tooooo proud to pick up (as opposed to scrape up) a dead critter from the highway.
Stock markets in the Far East taking a pounding. Futures down too. Buffet sitting on a cash pile of 2.5 billion dollars sold 400 million Amazon shares recently too. Interesting times especially with enhanced conflict in the Middle East likely this week and the U.K. facing a crisis too. A big test for the new govt. hope they’re up to it.
So I'd normally buy my full NISA allowance at the beginning of the year but things seemed a bit overheated and JPY was very weak so I held off. Since then I'd been thinking I was a dumbass for trying to market-time.
I just looked at the Nikkei performance and it turns out that... no, it's still up on January and I'm still a dumbass for trying to market-time.
IF your broker jumps out of his office window (even from ground floor) it's NOT a good sign,
Wow. For the longest time it was a Manhattan parlor game to try and come up with a weird enough story to explain how a dead bear cub ended up in Central Park. But no one guessed RFK jr. had to drive to JFK but the dead bear in his van needed to be dropped off first. https://x.com/TinaDupuy/status/1820163458354073769
Yeah, that's a weird story:
"He tells Ms Barr that he had the idea of staging a bike accident with the bear carcass in Central Park, which several drunk people with him heartily endorsed. He emphasises that he had not been drinking."
Stock markets in the Far East taking a pounding. Futures down too. Buffet sitting on a cash pile of 2.5 billion dollars sold 400 million Amazon shares recently too. Interesting times especially with enhanced conflict in the Middle East likely this week and the U.K. facing a crisis too. A big test for the new govt. hope they’re up to it.
So I'd normally buy my full NISA allowance at the beginning of the year but things seemed a bit overheated and JPY was very weak so I held off. Since then I'd been thinking I was a dumbass for trying to market-time.
I just looked at the Nikkei performance and it turns out that... no, it's still up on January and I'm still a dumbass for trying to market-time.
I buy every month. A global tracker and a US tracker.
I recall the old Peter Lynch quote along the lines of more fortunes have been lost trying to,time the market than were ever made timing it.
This may be different and a large crash coming but the same people calling this crash have been calling it every year. Law of averages is they will get it right eventually.
Which is fine. But not everyone does that, or has the same investment horizons.
The other point is that Buffett doesn't market time - except when he does.
This is a pretty good article, and the mention of Shapiro is less important than the theme.
The public wants I-95-ness State capacity sounds like a nerdy concept, but people feel it, or the lack of it.
https://www.eatingpolicy.com/p/the-public-wants-i-95-ness ...what makes someone competitive against presumed nominee Donald Trump? Pollsters will have their answers, but I will dare to propose one element I suspect they will not discuss. I don't have a good noun for it, but I do have the perfect example of it. So for lack of a better term I'll call it I-95-ness.
Yes, I'm referring to the incident last year when a section of I-95 collapsed in Pennsylvania. Expectations about a timeline to fix it were pretty low given our national track record at building just about anything. But Governor Josh Shapiro used emergency powers to suspend a whole host of rules and regulations and get the highway reopened in under two weeks. He could have celebrated the victory by saying "I alone have fixed it." It would have been dismissive of the thousands of public servants and contractors who scrambled like mad to make it happen, but it would have been a great dig at Trump. ..
...An I-95 moment shouldn’t have to invoke emergency powers, but I would love to see more politicians recognize and name the crisis we are in, and act accordingly. I would love, but don’t remotely expect, for someone to say out loud that we are in a crisis of state capacity, and that that crisis underpins all the others..
...After the fact, no one seems to debate much whether Shapiro was correct to invoke emergency powers to fix the freeway, but I would bet a whole lot of money that there were a lot of voices of grave concern from a lot of different stakeholders about that choice as it was being made. I can only begin to guess at the categories of rules that were swept away – funding, procurement and contracting, environmental review, workforce protections and diversity, oversight – and the number of processes and procedures that disappeared with those rules would have been staggering. The point is that each of these categories has its own fiercely protective constituency. The environmental ones, for example, seem obvious, but if you’ve ever worked in a bureaucracy you know the burning passion with which procurement officers will defend processes that seem like meaningless paperwork to the outsider.
I have come to respect that passion, because I see how deeply those who have it believe that they are serving the public. That’s the job they were hired to do, and they will do it better and more thoroughly and diligently than anyone else. It’s not their job to pull back and weigh the value of these processes against the costs of delays and inaction and to restructure the bureaucracy accordingly. That’s the job of leadership. And too few of our leaders are doing that job...
It is not a coincidence that there is rioting while there is some *serious* ill temper in these hallowed comment sections. It's too damn hot.
Actually it's OK for me cause a) I'm in the north east (got fairly close to boro today for unrelated reasons but not whole way) b) I have air con (after a fashion) but for 95% of people it's hot and only solution is get drunk and aggressive. 2011 was the same.
I expressed views like this earlier in the day and it was pointed out to me people died in 2011. That's true. So perhaps I shouldn't be quite so light hearted about it, although I'm going to be anyway. That's just what happens with massive civil disorder which is why we don't encourage it even though it's fun to watch. But I do think this is going to be a flash in the pan. The real issues that are being used as "excuses" for this rioting do need sorting but the rioting itself? Neither here nor there imo. And look out for some exemplary sentences in next few days.
There will be exemplary sentences. And they will not work.
Of course they won't work, because deterrence in sentencing is in most circumstances of fairly minimal use. The legal profession and the general populace is convinced they do work though so que sera sera
The most important element of policing and justice is to assure the general public that injustice acts are being fairly punished. When the authorities fail to act - for example, by trying to sweep mass rape at scale away from public attention - the unfortunate consequence tends to be the periodic appearance of mob rule.
That's nonsense. For a decade we have had serial trials and convictions of those criminals engaged in grooming. There must be hundreds convicted.
The police have certainly acted on these crimes for years, even if slow to do so originally. It is not a justification to riot in 2024.
The Tories have been ridiculously lucky not to be in government when these events have started happening. 14 years in government and they avoid them by 5 weeks.
2011 and 2020 to name two summers of rioting events.
One of the paradoxes of travel is how travellers are so keen to tick off sights and experiences while travelling, but so reluctant to engage and meet with the people who travel to visit us. They are considered a nuisance or worse in our own cities. There is a world of experience to be had with our neighbours, but that seems to pale compared the attraction of visiting some far off place for a selfie and to Instagram dinner, a church or a view.
A wise man observed that it was far better for the soul to visit one Cathedral a hundred times than a hundred Cathedrals once.
If this was happening 40 years ago I wonder whether some police chiefs may have ordered their officers to douse the rioters in ice cold water to calm them down, but you get the impression they wouldn't be allowed to do that today in case it was against procedure, etc.
Comments
Off topic and I know there is a lot hand wringing going on with the recent protest and dust ups happening around the country at the moment, but I think we can consider ourselves very fortunate that those involved
Have no overall objective & strategy
Havent the technical means to be more effective
Havent the will either
I see none of those. If the core message is send illegal immigrants out then I get it but, is it? It may be part of it but the actions only marginally reach towards that objective.
https://x.com/BexBitchley/status/1820164202293510378
If anyone fancies a break from real life death and terror can I recommend THOSE ABOUT TO DIE on Amazon prime. It’s greatly entertaining classic swords and gladiators melodrama
Babbage is also a contraction of babble-cabbage. Though I’m not sure that takes us anywhere.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duluth_lynchings
I'd tape people's PB posting records to their job applications. Sort the men from the boys.
He patiently explained that in that culture, not only was their horizon for consequences about 15 seconds into the future. But they like it that way.
Why is Farage getting away with this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
Virtually nothing in London si far, which also has much higher recent immigration. Many of these people targeted in the post-industrial towns also seem to be simple minorities, not immigrants.
I agree though that taking part in a riot is very dumb, because it is the stuff for which you get serious tellings off in the form of actual prison etc. Going along to watch though is awesome.
Though can Musk trust him to keep his word ?
Trump: And I am for electric cars. I have to because Elon endorsed me very strongly, Elon. So, I have no choice.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1819863379835830603
Sharks are reportedly wondering how much cash they need to offer - and consulting the Saudis, who got there first.
Lawrence Fox, for instance, has moved to full-on fascist rhetoric, talking about "Starmer supporting the rape of thousands of British girls but immigrant barbarians".
As also, once again, no moderation, which if it continues, the security services will have to act on.
Its a stretch to see them pull off something as precision as the killing of the top end Hezbollah & Hamas blokeys. So an equivalent eye for an eye assasination approach, which would be considered within an acceptable level of response, might be taking out a senior Israeli official or politician or government site. That might be easier to achieve on an overseas target such a diplomat, embassy or similar.
Other options due to the difficulties of such a precise high level kill inside Israel are:
1. Hostage taking of civilians possibly through Hezbollah or others on the Israeli border or again overseas. Bearing in mind there are 150 000-200 000 or so Israelis abroad, its an option. Its also a total pain for the Israeli government.
2. Due to inability to militarily attrack Israel effectively other than bombardment, just have a go at stuff that causes global disruption, such as was seen via the Houthis. Its a shit weak position but it is seen as maybe forcing pressure on Israel.
3. Just go for something to kill as many Israelis as possible at home or overseas, therefore making it likely to be an attack on non combatants
If you look at the evac orders from nations and international agencies, everything seems to be around Israel & Lebanon, particularly Beirut, perhaps indicating the direction of action and reaction.
It's the next logical stage of the Orwellian playbook.
First everything gets recorded and everyone knows everything gets recorded so the record is infallible.
Then the infallible records become subject to editing...
Any recourse to legal sanctions on the social media companies would be rather slow on emergencies.
Hoping to get through and spread terror amongst Israeli citizens.
I'm sure it was Tim Marshall who came out with a figure about the Hezbollah arsenal being in the high tens of thousands.
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-cabinet-endorsements/
(Quibble: The headline, "Trump’s presidential bid has the support of only half of his Cabinet" is misleading -- but by now I am used to many American journalists not being very good with arithmetic. Better would have been: "Only 24 of the 42 Trump Cabinet Member Support His Candidacy")
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#Full_results
Coked up glue sniffers on the streets are meaningless nobodies too.
Also France has worse youth unemployment which is long standing.
Talk about prejudice...
Meanwhile, even Jimmy Carter, in a hospice, a few weeks from his 100th birthday, has endorsed Harris.
Wow. For the longest time it was a Manhattan parlor game to try and come up with a weird enough story to explain how a dead bear cub ended up in Central Park. But no one guessed RFK jr. had to drive to JFK but the dead bear in his van needed to be dropped off first.
https://x.com/TinaDupuy/status/1820163458354073769
The thing it links to is no longer there but I think it was supposed to link to https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7c98db40f0b65b3de09ea1/criminal-histories-bulletin.pdf
(which actually says something slightly different to what I said - men born in 1953 were 33% probability of having at least one criminal offence - so a lifetime to first approximation rather than population statistic; still the majority of those offences are going to have been committed as young men I should think - even the sexual ones. So I am off by a bit, but not *that* much really)
The above is based on the work of Allan Lichtman who has an excellent track record of forecasting US Presidential elections.
His 13 keys model currently gives 8 keys to Harris. If the "No Social Unrest" key flips, then based on the model, Trump will win.
https://www.13keystracker.com/
This market is therefore purely on how polymarket will settle it (by a mechanism I won't even try to bother explaining this late at night; if @edmundintokyo is around he may or may not give it a go).
I think Maduro is massive value but I don't bet/invest in things where I have a spidey sense tingling. That's sole reason though. But there is a huge opportunity there for soemone with cojones who can read settlement right. And a pox on whoever defined the market so poorly!
Anonymous accounts did not cause the rioting, so why are they being blamed?
Ben Sixsmith"
https://thecritic.co.uk/in-defence-of-anons/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Schoof
"He tells Ms Barr that he had the idea of staging a bike accident with the bear carcass in Central Park, which several drunk people with him heartily endorsed. He emphasises that he had not been drinking."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2j3353vvdvo
But it's minor compared to the number of people his anti-vax nonsense has indirectly injured or killed.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent presidential candidate, confessed Sunday that he had left a dead bear cub in Central Park in New York City in 2014 because he thought it would be “amusing.”
Kennedy posted a video detailing the bizarre story on social media apparently ahead of an article in The New Yorker.
“Looking forward to seeing how you spin this one,” he said, tagging the magazine.
In the video, Kennedy appears to be seated in a kitchen as he casually tells actress Roseanne Barr about the ordeal. He says that he was driving through the Hudson Valley when he saw a woman in a van hit and kill a young bear.
“I pulled over and I picked up the bear and put him in the back of my van because I was going to skin the bear,” he says. “It was very good condition and I was going to put the meat in my refrigerator.”
Kennedy then details how he had to attend a dinner at Peter Luger Steak House in New York City and then head to the airport, which meant he had to get rid of the bear. He decided to leave the bear in Central Park with an old bicycle to make it look like it had been hit by the bike.
Kennedy says that he was worried when officials investigated the crime scene, “because my prints were all over that bike.”
Barr listens closely to the story, laughing and looking shocked. Kennedy tells her that fact checkers from The New Yorker asked him about the story: “It’s going to be a bad story.”
Indeed, the bear cub caused quite a stir when it was found in the park in 2014, as reported in The New York Times in an article coincidentally written by Tatiana Schlossberg, a reporter for the Times at that time, and the daughter of Kennedy’s first cousin Caroline Kennedy. A woman was walking her dog in Central Park when she noticed it lying under some bushes, partly concealed by an abandoned bicycle. The cub was 6 months old and 44 pounds.
The state’s Department of Environmental Conservation later found through a necropsy that the cause of death was “blunt force injuries consistent with a motor vehicle collision.”
Schlossberg said on Sunday evening, “Like law enforcement, I had no idea who was responsible for this when I wrote the story.”
Kennedy did not appear to confess that he was behind the incident until now. He tried to explain the unusual circumstances to Barr in the video: “This was a little bit of the redneck in me.”
I just looked at the Nikkei performance and it turns out that... no, it's still up on January and I'm still a dumbass for trying to market-time.
1902 - T Roosevelt spares a bear
2024 - RF Kennedy Jr dumps a bear
I recall the old Peter Lynch quote along the lines of more fortunes have been lost trying to,time the market than were ever made timing it.
This may be different and a large crash coming but the same people calling this crash have been calling it every year. Law of averages is they will get it right eventually.
HOWEVER, even these simple, rural folk are likely LESS sympathetic when instead of actually making some use of the poor bear, such as meat in the freezer and perhaps a bearskin rug, you dump the carcass in a city park - because you had to go to a steak house?
Even suave suburban-and-urbanites will see that as . . . what's the word? Weird!
IN FACT my psephological take, is that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is challenging JD Vance for the Weird Vote. (Along of course with Vance's running mate but of course that's a given.)
Note that in contrast to recovering Hillbilly JDV, who has fled, forsaken AND monetized his Appalachian roots, the 4th Kennedy to run for POTUS is now a self-proclaimed redneck who ain't tooooo proud to pick up (as opposed to scrape up) a dead critter from the highway.
But the difference is also that in this case the liar is publicly admitting he's a liar.
But not everyone does that, or has the same investment horizons.
The other point is that Buffett doesn't market time - except when he does.
It's quite a strong signal.
Liz Cheney has endorsed and plans to campaign for Democratic congresswoman Elissa Slotkin of Michigan. AP.
https://x.com/MichaelArt123/status/1820242336275939713
Slotkin is also a potential presidential candidate for the future. Won her House seat from the Republicans, in rural Michigan.
The public wants I-95-ness
State capacity sounds like a nerdy concept, but people feel it, or the lack of it.
https://www.eatingpolicy.com/p/the-public-wants-i-95-ness
...what makes someone competitive against presumed nominee Donald Trump? Pollsters will have their answers, but I will dare to propose one element I suspect they will not discuss. I don't have a good noun for it, but I do have the perfect example of it. So for lack of a better term I'll call it I-95-ness.
Yes, I'm referring to the incident last year when a section of I-95 collapsed in Pennsylvania. Expectations about a timeline to fix it were pretty low given our national track record at building just about anything. But Governor Josh Shapiro used emergency powers to suspend a whole host of rules and regulations and get the highway reopened in under two weeks. He could have celebrated the victory by saying "I alone have fixed it." It would have been dismissive of the thousands of public servants and contractors who scrambled like mad to make it happen, but it would have been a great dig at Trump. ..
...An I-95 moment shouldn’t have to invoke emergency powers, but I would love to see more politicians recognize and name the crisis we are in, and act accordingly. I would love, but don’t remotely expect, for someone to say out loud that we are in a crisis of state capacity, and that that crisis underpins all the others..
...After the fact, no one seems to debate much whether Shapiro was correct to invoke emergency powers to fix the freeway, but I would bet a whole lot of money that there were a lot of voices of grave concern from a lot of different stakeholders about that choice as it was being made. I can only begin to guess at the categories of rules that were swept away – funding, procurement and contracting, environmental review, workforce protections and diversity, oversight – and the number of processes and procedures that disappeared with those rules would have been staggering. The point is that each of these categories has its own fiercely protective constituency. The environmental ones, for example, seem obvious, but if you’ve ever worked in a bureaucracy you know the burning passion with which procurement officers will defend processes that seem like meaningless paperwork to the outsider.
I have come to respect that passion, because I see how deeply those who have it believe that they are serving the public. That’s the job they were hired to do, and they will do it better and more thoroughly and diligently than anyone else. It’s not their job to pull back and weigh the value of these processes against the costs of delays and inaction and to restructure the bureaucracy accordingly. That’s the job of leadership. And too few of our leaders are doing that job...
The police have certainly acted on these crimes for years, even if slow to do so originally. It is not a justification to riot in 2024.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/04/tory-shadow-minister-sorry-riots-justified-police
https://x.com/NewYorker/status/1820316559929196656?t=iVQE0Dg6k8jFODAROeoSOA&s=19
One of the paradoxes of travel is how travellers are so keen to tick off sights and experiences while travelling, but so reluctant to engage and meet with the people who travel to visit us. They are considered a nuisance or worse in our own cities. There is a world of experience to be had with our neighbours, but that seems to pale compared the attraction of visiting some far off place for a selfie and to Instagram dinner, a church or a view.
A wise man observed that it was far better for the soul to visit one Cathedral a hundred times than a hundred Cathedrals once.