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Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,427
edited July 2024 in General
Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

NEW: BBC Forecast reduces Labour majority, Tories up beyond 150 seats:LAB: 405CON: 154LIB: 56SNP: 6REF: 4

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    First.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Hearing Carla has won Bristol Central and Greens a very strong second in Bristol South
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited July 2024
    Sir John has done an outstanding job with this exit poll in what is a very difficult and complicated election.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited July 2024
    Fareham & Waterlooville -> Con hold

    Con (Braverman) 17,561
    Lab 11,482
    LD 9,533
    Ref 9,084
    Grn 2,056
    Rejoin 210
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,483
    President Joe Biden is facing pressure from some major Democratic donors as he faces a critical few days in his campaign for re-election.

    A number of donors are publicly warning they will withhold funds unless Mr Biden is replaced as the party's candidate following his disastrous debate performance last week.

    They include Abigail Disney, an heiress to the Disney family fortune, Hollywood producer Damon Lindelof, Hollywood agent Ari Emanuel, and philanthropist and entrepreneur Gideon Stein.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjl65p8j87ko
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,761
    Lichfield has gone Labour. Wow!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933
    Andy_JS said:

    Fareham & Waterlooville -> Con hold

    Con 17,561
    Lab 11,482
    LD 9,533
    Ref 9,084
    Rejoin 210

    One of the few tactical voting fails of the election so far.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 587
    edited July 2024
    Have the BBC adjusted this down too much based on some very specific, weird seats, like Chingford and Leicester South?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Braverman returned.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383
    rcs1000 said:

    I think I may be able to afford a new bicycle.

    I have my eyes on an a very nice carbon fiber one with SRAM AXS Rival.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,659
    Suella holds on in Fareham!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,786
    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,633
    Gillian Keegan annihilated in Chichester... lib dems with a 12k majority I think!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    Labour gain Hemel Hempstead
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    PedestrianRock said:

    Have the BBC adjusted this down too much based on some very specific, weird seats, like Chingford and Leicester South?

    Just a tweak really
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,394
    Beeb saying the Greens have Bristol Central.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933
    148grss said:

    Hearing Carla has won Bristol Central and Greens a very strong second in Bristol South

    That’ll be a Green gain in Bristol South in 2029.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Yes, Starmer is doing poorly among some minorities like Muslims, but he's winning lots of seats among other minorities like Scots.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited July 2024
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material, says sorry for the party breaking its promises
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106
    Greens take Bristol C, confirmed
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    Bristol Central goes Green!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    SUELLA FOR LEADER
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    Goodness me, I did back the LDs in Hampshire NE as well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes -> Lab gain

    Lab 15,336
    Ref 10,533
    Con 8,269
    Grn 1,115
    LD 1,036
    TUSC 222
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited July 2024
    Bristol Central -> Green gain
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,918
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think I may be able to afford a new bicycle.

    I have my eyes on an a very nice carbon fiber one with SRAM AXS Rival.
    Surely you need DuraAce...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material
    If Sue-Ellen did become Con leader they really would be back to being the Nasty Party
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    El_Capitano said:

    Bristol Central goes Green!

    Hurrah!! Carla will be excellent in the Commons.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Just wondering whether Lab might slip below 400 seats with these occasional losses.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Casino_Royale said:

    Goodness me, I did back the LDs in Hampshire NE as well.

    I had £3 at 33-1. Also had money on the Tories, but a good result overall.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,786
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    Con holfd Staffs Moorlands - maj 1,175
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,688
    56.6% for Denyer in Bristol C is the largest vote share I’ve seen for any party so far!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    SNP hold Perth and Kinross-shire, which percentages be damned is their historically safest seat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited July 2024
    PedestrianRock said:

    Have the BBC adjusted this down too much based on some very specific, weird seats, like Chingford and Leicester South?

    The results so far in Labour v Tory seats almost exactly match the results in 1997.

    It is only in Tory v LD seats where the Tories are doing significantly worse than 1997, especially in strong Remain seats.

    Tories are doing better in Scotland though than 1997 it looks like and will avoid the wipe out they received then
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,865
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material
    Awful stuff
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,688
    So, 3 Labour losses so far
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106
    Very narrow Tory hold in Havant
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    Hey, don't forget IDS held on...
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Carla Denyer will be the best looking MP in my book
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,564
    MikeL said:

    Con holfd Staffs Moorlands - maj 1,175

    I can hear the echo. "Ooooh, Blair won that"
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    She’s awful.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287
    "Malleus ScotNatorum"

    I laughed. I tried not to. But I laughed. I am a bad person
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240
    Andy_JS said:

    Just wondering whether Lab might slip below 400 seats with these occasional losses.

    could be close. I am Green on less than 400.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Braverman just sounds deranged.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,483
    By what time do you think we will get a national vote share estimate?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,659
    Basildon declares!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Braverman is revolting
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Snp will be well above 6, Perth is a hold. Can't see any Con gains
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,286
    Lib Dems being down on the exit poll in this new prediction is odd.

    Exit poll had Newton Abbot at 41% shot for them, Stratford-on-Avon 36%, Chichester 15%, and NE Hampshire 9%. Where are the equivalent misses so far?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
    No, you're confusing my posts for your posts on Silicon Valley Bank.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    biggles said:

    She’s awful.

    What a creepy speech.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    Basildon declaration.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited July 2024
    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    I've got a Lab MP for the first time at a general election, (although there was briefly one due to a by-election).
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    edited July 2024
    ThomasNashe said:

    Braverman just sounds deranged.

    Not to your average GBeebies viewer.

    Her problem may well be that she's not deranged enough.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857
    edited July 2024
    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    Kemi's lovely.

    Suella's evil.

    So she'll probably win...

    (I still think tories if any sense should wait a bit before choosing)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material
    Awful stuff
    Good luck Tories if she is leader. Five wasted years ahead.

    The next tory PM is still at sixth form or at least at an Oxford Ball.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240
    bondegezou said:

    56.6% for Denyer in Bristol C is the largest vote share I’ve seen for any party so far!

    We heard it from @MoonRabbit first
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Holden by 20 votes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,838
    Holden holds on.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,659
    Holden just hangs on to Basildon!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,786
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
    No, you're confusing my posts for your posts on Silicon Valley Bank.
    No I think I know exactly what your posts are and that is 99% tripe. You may be a good moderator (remains to be seen) but you don't half post nonsense.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just wondering whether Lab might slip below 400 seats with these occasional losses.

    could be close. I am Green on less than 400.
    Won’t take a lot for the SNP to sneak some and help get the number under 400.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    Dic Holden wins by 20 votes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited July 2024
    Basildon & Billericay -> Con hold

    Con (Holden) 12,905
    Lab 12,885
    Ref 11,354
    LD 2,292
    Grn 2,123
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933
    edited July 2024
    SMukesh said:

    Carla Denyer will be the best looking MP in my book

    Lib Dem MP for Chichester
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,865
    These streams from declarations are hopeless. Better years ago.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,257
    edited July 2024
    Oooh, that's close in Bas-vegas!

    Holden-on
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Chicken run wins by a neck.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
    Well then you’re fucking doomed
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Wow. 20 votes.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    Holden wins Basildon on about 28%
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,865
    Yes! Cates has gone. Bye!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Really disappointing news from Basildon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Sky News -> 100 votes in it in Godalming & Ash.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,918
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
    Is now the time to end that policy and leave it to MPs?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106
    Hubris rather than humility from IDS
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    viewcode said:

    "Malleus ScotNatorum"

    I laughed. I tried not to. But I laughed. I am a bad person

    Why are you a bad person for laughing at that?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    The provision of results and declarations gets worse at each election I've watched.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 982
    High chance Labour lose at least one of the Tower Hamlet seats now
  • JamesFJamesF Posts: 42
    HUGE HUGE HUGE Green win in Bristol Central!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    BBC giving Carla Denyer about 1% of the attention they give Farage.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287
    Green 56.6% +30.6
    Labour Lab 32.6% −25.9
    Conservative Con 4.6% −9.7
    Reform UK Reform 3.1% +1.9
    Liberal Democrat Lib Dem 2.7% +2.7
    Party of Women Women 0.5% +0.5

    https://election.news.sky.com/elections/general-election-2024/bristol-central-99
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12273/chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold-thin-gruel-politicalbetting-com
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
    No, you're confusing my posts for your posts on Silicon Valley Bank.
    No I think I know exactly what your posts are and that is 99% tripe. You may be a good moderator (remains to be seen) but you don't half post nonsense.
    Cheerio
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,786
    The recent results sure are weird.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited July 2024
    Boston & Skegness -> Reform gain

    Ref 15,520
    Con 13,510
    Lab 7,629
    Grn 1,506
    LD 1,375
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    IDS thoroughly graceless on BBC
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    Monksfield said:

    Yes! Cates has gone. Bye!

    Tory gain.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,659
    Tice GAINS Boston for REFORM!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,677
    Tice elected
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857
    Chameleon said:

    Really disappointing news from Basildon.

    made a lovely evening so far very angry me grrr
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    IanB2 said:

    Hubris rather than humility from IDS

    Who cares, he's a good MP. Glad he's back.

    Suella however...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    LDs gain Tunbridge Wells
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    Tice wins Boston & Skegeness for Reform.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    Oh god, the centrist dads of PB sound like the French Republicans in about 2015
This discussion has been closed.