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Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    edited July 5
    EDIT: guess he would give a losing speech if lost.
  • Beyond getting the winner right, the polls do seem to have over-estimated Labour's share quite significantly but oddly the seat predictions do gel with a higher percentage of the vote.

    Weird election.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Also on turnout, any indications if voting ID has made an impact?

    I suspect there are manifold reasons for low turnout.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,507
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    The biggest subplot is the Reform surge

    Which didn’t happen
    Wait and see what the vote percentage is at the end. And even if they gain no more seats they certainly have more than a lot of people on here were predicting.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Sky News have Godalming
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5
    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Johnny Mercer has lost.

    A real pity but no surprise
    Opinions on Johnny Mercer xMP are mixed. With mine (from afar) less positive than yours.

    However, will say that, in the House of Commons debate in February 2023 - not the more famous March debate (think I have that right) - Mercer gave a powerful speech in favor (in essence) of supporting Blair government re: imminent war with Iraq. Was in the gallery when he gave it. Disagreed with his position, but nevertheless thought his was the second-best speech of the debate.

    Best speaker was the Rev. Dr. Ian Paisley Sr. who also spoke in favor of going to war with Iraq if need be (which he thought it was, at least at the time). Paisley was a riveting speaker, very much a born preacher with a reasoned, righteous text, by his lights anyway.

    In the role of MP addressing the House, Paisley the Elder was simply superb, I would guess among the best, certainly in the Top Ten. Disagreed with him on the war, and other things, but he left me wanting to hear more of his Ulster rasp echoing in my ears. Speaking as a once-Catholic Fenian with woke libtard tendencies.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Amateur hour with these declarations
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 182
    Hunt looks nervous
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,756
    Con hold Harrow East
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Con hold Worthing East - Lab were 2/9
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,342
    HYUFD said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Looks like Big Gav Robinson has held onto Belfast East for the DUP

    Not a great night for APNI if so.

    That is a great hold for the DUP if so
    Rumours that Alex Easton has gained North Down from Alliance.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    Binface is on stage
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Godalming & Ash -> Con hold

    Con 23,293
    LD 22,402
    Ref 4,815
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Go Jeremy!!!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Great tip on Harrow East - well done to all who were on that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    edited July 5
    Hunt has won. And I have lost.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Harrow East Con hold
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    edited July 5
    Con hold Harrow East - huge maj 11,860

    Swing from Lab to Con!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Godalming and Ash

    LDs 22402
    Cons 23293


    Chanceller Jeremy Hunt holds on
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808
    edited July 5
    Hunt still in the hunt!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    tlg86 said:

    EDIT: guess he would give a losing speech if lost.

    Braverman devastated
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    NEW THREAD
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Con hold IoW East

    So I got both sides of the island right. Haven’t seen the figures yet

    Reform second, so Brothers did very poorly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601

    NEW THREAD

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Bollocks. Hunt
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,284

    Con hold Worthing East - Lab were 2/9

    Oh no! That's a big disappointment
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,577

    Hunt still in the hunt!

    He's out of the hunt for being the Portillo moment. It looks like it's Liz Truss's for the taking.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Richmond & Northallerton -> Con hold

    Con 23,059
    Lab 10,874
    Ref 7,142
    Ind 222
    Ind 160
    Yorkshire 132
    Loony 99
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601

    NEW THREAD

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Richmond and Northallerton

    Tories 23059
    Lab 10874
    LDs 4322
    Ref 7142

    PM Rishi Sunak holds his seat
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Rishi wins his seat comfortably
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Booooo. Hunt holds on.
This discussion has been closed.