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Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    SCons on the board
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Penny for early by-election?

    Speech that sounds like sane, one nation, actually win Conservative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Labour gain Hertford and Stortford
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293

    Reform have sunk Mordaunt.

    Not a great Labour vote. She'd have got it without the Wokery.

    She had a big personal vote so not sure another candidate would have won it even without Reform.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Someone just mentioned Hunt for leader. Has he held his seat?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    A couple of wrong results have been called here tonight/this morning. First Skipton and Ripon to Lib Dems. Then Suffolk Coastal to Lib Dems. Not sure why we've had these wrong calls. Not good for punters!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    SNP hold Dundee central by 600 whole votes! 4/5 seats does not seem unlikely.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    The birds are singing, are they not?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Con hold Harborough
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    The SNP are getting utterly trounced, I knew it would be bad but this is astonishing.

    Sky have cut to Swinney, he looks shattered.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Denyer says Labour weren't exciting voters. Her party will win 2 seats or double that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Croydon S Conhold, Philp holds
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    The birds are singing, are they not?

    Sunrise at 04:54
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    Heathener said:

    Someone just mentioned Hunt for leader. Has he held his seat?

    Its really really close
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 182
    Heathener said:

    Someone just mentioned Hunt for leader. Has he held his seat?

    @Heathener

    Don’t know, but at 80 to 1 worth a punt.
    Think it’s currently a recount
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    MP after MP winning on 30-something%. FPTP fail.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Johnny Mercer has lost.

    The comments section of the Plymouth Herald breathes a collective sigh of relief
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited July 5
    Latest seat count

    Lab 234
    Con 42
    LD 26
    Ref 4
    SNP 4
    PC 3
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited July 5
    Sean_F said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Can the bbc dislodge their head and camera from Reform’s arse to pay any attention to these green gains?

    This is one of our biggest problems. The media stiffy for the far right.
    Reform will poll far better than the Greens tonight.
    As ever, penny looks quite statuesque but speaks quite woodenly, and has big, oddly stiff tits. She’s basically an 18th century naval figurehead
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,421
    Andy_JS said:

    Disappointing for the LDs that they haven't easily taken Godalming & Ash, Hunt must have a personal vote there.

    Pleased if he's held.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 5
    Telegraph thinks the GE coverage is rubbish...

    Away from the studio, the most dubious BBC decision was to have Victoria Derbyshire lurking in the dark outside Rishi Sunak’s house. “It’s very quiet,” she said, as it tends to be in the North Yorkshire countryside at 10pm. “All we could hear all night was the sound of wood pigeons. We could smell the cows in the field next door.”

    She seemed surprised that the PM’s curtains and shutters were closed, but that might have had something to do with the fact that it was night time, and also because he’d noticed there was a woman from Newsnight standing in front of the windows with a camera crew.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/05/how-tv-covered-exit-poll/

    At least they didn't hire a cruise boat this time.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    stjohn said:

    A couple of wrong results have been called here tonight/this morning. First Skipton and Ripon to Lib Dems. Then Suffolk Coastal to Lib Dems. Not sure why we've had these wrong calls. Not good for punters!

    Wrong wrong call for Suffolk.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,278

    Penny for early by-election?

    Speech that sounds like sane, one nation, actually win Conservative.

    I think she'll contest Portsmouth in 2029.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,421
    Cicero said:

    Greens win Bristol and Suffolk Coastal

    What? Really?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Well done Julia Buckley. A massive upgrade in representation for Shrewsbury.
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 182
    biggles said:

    With a heavy heart, I now have to conclude that my two year old Tory majority bet might be a loser.

    @biggles likewise my NOM bet
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,412

    The birds are singing, are they not?

    The birds are singing, are they not?

    Yes, it's getting light. I hope the new government will do better than the last one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,383
    I’m glad Shapps is out. People who lie to Parliament should face consequences.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293

    The SNP are getting utterly trounced, I knew it would be bad but this is astonishing.

    Sky have cut to Swinney, he looks shattered.

    What went wrong with that Savanta Scotland poll?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Cicero said:

    Greens win Bristol and Suffolk Coastal

    What? Really?
    Not Suffolk Coastal
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    I am worried. Brighton Pavilion worried.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,515
    ydoethur said:

    John Swinney looking devastated on BBC Scotland.

    Another SNP leadership candidate election incoming?
    The fight for places on the SNP lists for Holyrood will be something to behold.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited July 5
    SteveS said:

    biggles said:

    With a heavy heart, I now have to conclude that my two year old Tory majority bet might be a loser.

    @biggles likewise my NOM bet
    I have that one too, but I haven’t formally conceded it yet.

    I do, however, win big if Labour dips down to the 350-399 bracket. Come on SNP and Indies!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,383

    The birds are singing, are they not?

    The birds are singing, are they not?

    Yes, it's getting light. I hope the new government will do better than the last one.
    Would be nice, but judging from their policy offerings I suspect we will be disappointed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Can the bbc dislodge their head and camera from Reform’s arse to pay any attention to these green gains?

    This is one of our biggest problems. The media stiffy for the far right.
    Reform will poll far better than the Greens tonight.
    As ever, penny looks quite statuesque but speaks quite woodenly, and has big, oddly stiff tits. She’s basically an 18th century naval figurehead
    She looks OK :)
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 795

    Croydon S Conhold, Philp holds

    Someone mysteriously came here a couple of days ago asking where to find the best odds for it. I told them and then drunkenly copied their bet a bit later. Was just too suspicious...

    I see I laid some of it off 2 minutes ago (is that actually legit or will BF cancel it? might be cancelled) but happy days.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297
    Anyone think Hunt might take another cracking at the leadership if he holds on?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    edited July 5
    Surely time for JRM….? Or Truss
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    stjohn said:

    A couple of wrong results have been called here tonight/this morning. First Skipton and Ripon to Lib Dems. Then Suffolk Coastal to Lib Dems. Not sure why we've had these wrong calls. Not good for punters!

    In all fairness to me - SuffC to Greens was Sky's error not mine!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Streeting hangs on by 500
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Labour gain Finchley and Newcastle under Lyme
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    viewcode said:

    I am worried. Brighton Pavilion worried.

    Turnout in the three Brighton and Hove constituencies are down compared to 2019:
    Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven 59.96% (2019: 69.5%)
    Brighton Pavilion 70.30% (2019: 73.4%)
    Hove and Portslade 70.42% (2019: 75.9%)

    I am on the Greens at 66/1 in Kemptown.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Con wins Berwick by 6,599 - suggests may do well in Scotland
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860

    Cicero said:

    Greens win Bristol and Suffolk Coastal

    What? Really?
    Labour win the Suffolk one
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,383
    rkrkrk said:

    Anyone think Hunt might take another cracking at the leadership if he holds on?

    He’d be better than Braverman.

    But so would the corpse of Arthur Balfour.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,591
    Reeta Chakrabarti is rocking the "Jon Pertwee Doctor Who Companion" look tonight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Con hold Bridlington
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited July 5
    Berwickshire -> Con hold

    Con (Lamont) 18,872
    SNP 12,273
    Lab 6,311
    LD 3,686
    Ref 3,340
    Grn 1,526

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/S14000008
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    As a right winger, I confess I cannot summon a sob for Therese Coffey and Grant Shapps
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    Wes Streeting won Ilford North by less than a thousand votes from poster girl Leanne Mohamad.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Cons hold the Wrekin
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited July 5
    Cons win (hold) the other solihull seat (West & Shirley) by a reasonable margin.

    Lib Dem 7.916
    Labour 11664
    Julian Knight, independent 594
    Reform 7,149
    Green 3.270
    Con 16,287
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    biggles said:

    With a heavy heart, I now have to conclude that my two year old Tory majority bet might be a loser.

    A value loser, assuming you got 100/1
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    stjohn said:

    A couple of wrong results have been called here tonight/this morning. First Skipton and Ripon to Lib Dems. Then Suffolk Coastal to Lib Dems. Not sure why we've had these wrong calls. Not good for punters!

    The BBC presenter just said Chichester was a Lab gain so we're not the only ones…
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    EPG said:

    stjohn said:

    A couple of wrong results have been called here tonight/this morning. First Skipton and Ripon to Lib Dems. Then Suffolk Coastal to Lib Dems. Not sure why we've had these wrong calls. Not good for punters!

    Wrong wrong call for Suffolk.
    It's Lab not Greens who GAINED Suffolk Coastal
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    What the fuck is that on stage in Bath?
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    Freddie Hayward
    @freddiejh8
    ·
    24s
    Labour source tells me Shabana Mahmood’s race in Birmingham Ladywood is *closer than expected* but they still expect to win.

    Result around 5am.

    Mahmood is a great and Yaqoob utter scum, so I really hope this is true.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706

    Streeting hangs on by 500

    Goodness me - Streeting could easily have lost.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    BBC thinks it's more important to talk to Alex Salmond than show a declaration.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Can we actually see the Bath declaration you clowns.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Liz Truss could be third
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,246

    These results are a bloodbath for the Tories and the SNP.

    Curtice made an interesting point - this is an election the Tories have lost, not one that Labour has won. It’s voters sitting on their hands not being converted
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited July 5
    I really must get some sleep but I’ve done well tonight on my bets.

    And I’m happy with the results. The Conservatives are the Official Opposition and have sufficient MPs to have a sensible debate about their future. They aren’t a rump that could be taken over by the headbangers like Braverman and Badenoch.

    We await the percentages but it looks as if, once again, the Far Right have flattered to deceive.

    We’re a moderate country and the sooner the remaining Conservatives realise that, the better for them and us all. (Tip: ignore the likes of Leon).
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited July 5
    Times radio says Liz Truss seat "Extremely close"
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    edited July 5
    Delete, I am talking crap.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    IanB2 said:

    biggles said:

    With a heavy heart, I now have to conclude that my two year old Tory majority bet might be a loser.

    A value loser, assuming you got 100/1
    Yes, I went in at the Truss nadir. Don’t regret it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    West Tyrone: Conservatives last with 91 votes, 0.2%. I predicted this would be the lowest Tory vote share.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    biggles said:

    What the fuck is that on stage in Bath?

    Does a quick google...

    Bill Blockhead or A.N.ON?

    https://whocanivotefor.co.uk/elections/parl.bath.2024-07-04/bath/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Wes Streeting won Ilford North by less than a thousand votes from poster girl Leanne Mohamad.

    Bloody hell! I actually voted for Wes!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Dorking LD gain, Wimbledon LD gain, Yeovil LD gain, Altrincham Lab gain, Clywd E Lab gain
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,278

    Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.

    There's our Portillo moment?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    Cicero said:

    Greens win Bristol and Suffolk Coastal

    What? Really?
    No. The Suffolk Central Green win was a Sky typo that was hastily corrected.
  • With 50% seats of declared, here is @BloombergUK breakdown so far >>

    Labour 238 seats
    Tories 43 seats
    Lib Dems 28 seats
    SNP 4 seats
    Reform 4 seats

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1809065135870205972
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Sinn Fein having a good night.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Massive 26% swing to Tim Farron in Westmorland.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001580
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    These results are a bloodbath for the Tories and the SNP.

    Curtice made an interesting point - this is an election the Tories have lost, not one that Labour has won. It’s voters sitting on their hands not being converted
    It's a terrible night for the Labour Party.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    edited July 5
    Dorking going Lib Dem
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Leon said:

    As a right winger, I confess I cannot summon a sob for Therese Coffey and Grant Shapps

    Therese Coffey was a hardworking MP, Shapps was loyal to Boris and Rishi
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 182
    Wes streeting majority of 500ish…
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    HYUFD said:

    Dorking LD gain, Wimbledon LD gain, Yeovil LD gain, Altrincham Lab gain, Clywd E Lab gain

    Lib Dems seem to have a full house on SW London.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991

    Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.

    I fail to believe Prof Peston has any sources...I mean who would voluntarily want to talk to him, sorry have to listen for 20 mins before he got to the question he wants to ask.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Tories got rid of the European Parliament elections, forcing the voters to deliver their European Parliament election result in a general election
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297
    MikeL said:

    Streeting hangs on by 500

    Goodness me - Streeting could easily have lost.
    That's mad... what has gone on there? Another Gaza backlash?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Streeting hangs on by 500

    Bloody hell he was only on the telly a couple of hours ago giving it large.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    edited July 5
    Ilford North

    Labour Wes Streeting 15,647 (33.4 -20.8)
    Independent Leanne Mohamad 15,119 (32.2 +32.2)
    Conservative Kaz Rizvi 9,619 (20.5 -16.2)
    Reform UK Alex Wilson 3,621 (7.7 +5.9)
    Green Rachel Collinson 1,794 (3.8 +2.5)
    Liberal Democrat Fraser Coppin 1,088 (2.3 -1.7)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    edited July 5
    BBC forecast has changed again:

    Labour: 410 seats
    Conservative: 144 seats
    Liberal Democrat: 58 seats
    Scottish National Party: 8 seats
    Reform UK: 4 seats
    Other 26
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    MikeL said:

    Streeting hangs on by 500

    Goodness me - Streeting could easily have lost.
    He must have lost pretty much every Muslim voter in his seat
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Post

    See new posts
    Conversation
    Owen Winter
    @OwenWntr
    Hard to understate how weird these constituency results are. Don't think we've seen a General Election this locally differentiated since the 1930s
    3:32 AM · Jul 5, 2024
    ·
    16.6K
    Views
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.

    No way?!

    Oh god. Perhaps I should stay awake for that.
  • BBC forcast has changed again:

    Labour: 410 seats
    Conservative: 144 seats
    Liberal Democrat: 58 seats
    Scottish National Party: 8 seats
    Reform UK: 4 seats
    Other 26

    LOL back up to 410 again.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Cicero said:

    Dorking going Lib Fem

    My old seat without moving. Boundary changes. Look out for new MP. Chris is a Ashdown clone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Times radio says Liz Truss seat "Extremely close"

    No way is "Friend of Steve Bannon" Liz Truss part of the Tory party's road to recovery with the voters. One Tory loss I shall not mourn if she is gone.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    EPG said:

    These results are a bloodbath for the Tories and the SNP.

    Curtice made an interesting point - this is an election the Tories have lost, not one that Labour has won. It’s voters sitting on their hands not being converted
    It's a terrible night for the Labour Party.
    A win is a win.

    Five years to remake Britain.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,645
    ydoethur said:

    The birds are singing, are they not?

    The birds are singing, are they not?

    Yes, it's getting light. I hope the new government will do better than the last one.
    Would be nice, but judging from their policy offerings I suspect we will be disappointed.
    For a majority of 1997 proportions it is a rather unenthusiastic display.

    The real story of the night is the other parties: Lib Dems, Reform, Greens, Gaza independents. The voters are moving, but not all in the same direction.

    I think in large part because the Lab campaign was so timid. You need to campaign with enthusiasm, like the smaller parties did.

This discussion has been closed.