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Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

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  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News -> 100 votes in it in Godalming & Ash.

    Hunt is the one tory I would vote for to reward his public service.

    He did the nation a huge service after Truss/Kwarteng spectacularly fucked everything up.

    Decent chap. If any tory deserves re-election, it is him.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Boston. Another bet came through
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    I thought reports were Holden was behind by 20!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Lab gain Lincoln, Cons hold Louth and Horncastle
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Gosh four for Reform. Big 4 all in.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,721
    The fact the Tories held Aldridge Brownhills and lost Lichfield tells you all you need to know about how Fabricant’s erratic behaviour in recent years has gone down with his voters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    IOW W Labour gain, 13200 v Tory 10,000. Seely gone, Labour’s chippie from Cowes elected
  • PJHPJH Posts: 689
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,453
    I've just woken up to see things are pretty much as expected: a Labour landslide.

    Good luck to all the new MPs, and thanks to all the outgoing MPs.

    Starmer has a lot of work ahead of him...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,949
    IanB2 said:

    Hubris rather than humility from IDS

    The Conservatives could make exactly the same mistake as they did after 1997.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    edited July 5
    Rumours that the DUP are in trouble in North Antrim - could be a TUV gain

    (and would the broadcasters count it towards the Refuk total if so?)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,904
    Is that four Labour losses now?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    IanB2 said:

    Hubris rather than humility from IDS

    Totally. The last person that the Tories need in parliament.

    Lab threw that one away.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tice GAINS Boston for REFORM!

    Tice and Farage and Anderson in the same Commons office.

    What could possibly go wrong?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MikeL said:

    I thought reports were Holden was behind by 20!

    Reports IIRC were that there was a 20 vote margin; didn't say which way.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    Dumbosaurus said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    Kemi's lovely.

    Suella's evil.

    So she'll probably win...

    (I still think tories if any sense should wait a bit before choosing)
    So they'll pick straight away?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Flatlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
    Is now the time to end that policy and leave it to MPs?
    No, the MPs alone picked Rishi
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    I'm just confused with these results now, no more predicting seat counts from me, not sure what to think. Certainly an entertaining night anyhow.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    rottenborough said:

    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent

    Yes
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    edited July 5
    Ilford South Lab Hold (Jas Athwal new MP)
    Athwal 40%
    Indy got 23%
    Cons 15%
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,550
    I think I’ve lost my bet with @Sandpit
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    Debbonaire was crushed!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    PJH said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
    39.3% was the biggest Lab to SNP in Glasgow NE in 2015.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,721
    PJH said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
    There was a 39 swing in one of the Glasgow seats in 2015.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Fabricant out, no-one expected it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,417
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News -> 100 votes in it in Godalming & Ash.

    Hunt is the one tory I would vote for to reward his public service.

    He did the nation a huge service after Truss/Kwarteng spectacularly fucked everything up.

    Decent chap. If any tory deserves re-election, it is him.
    Hunt's more recent measures seemed designed only to screw Labour.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    It does so far look to have been a quite large miss for the MRPs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Basildon & Billericay -> Con hold

    Con (Holden) 12,905
    Lab 12,885
    Ref 11,354
    LD 2,292
    Grn 2,123

    Very close threeway between Holden, Lab and Reform there but Holden comes first
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    rottenborough said:

    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent

    Yes.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,352
    TimS said:

    SMukesh said:

    Carla Denyer will be the best looking MP in my book

    Lib Dem MP for Chichester
    Katie White - Leeds NW
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,168
    PJH said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
    It's almost as if pumping millions of gallons of shit into Chichester harbour upset genteel locals in some way.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con hold Surrey East and Sussex Weald - both easily
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    PJH said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
    PJH said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
    She has that effect on people
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent

    Yes.
    Guess he will get an early peerage then?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Was it worth giving up half a dozen Islamic / swampy seats for this majority?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,721
    Andy_JS said:

    Fabricant out, no-one expected it.

    That was always on the cards, but I’ll admit I misjudged it. I thought the Lib Dems would be his challengers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    edited July 5
    Jenrick holds Newark and Cons hold Surrey E
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,721
    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
    Is now the time to end that policy and leave it to MPs?
    No, the MPs alone picked Rishi
    Only after the members' choice failed to outlast a lettuce.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    BREAKING NEWS: Recount in #Blackburn, Independent candidate Adnan Hussain who stood on Palestine platform ahead by 50 votes to incumbent Labour MP Kate Hollern. #GeneralElection2024

    Labour have a Gaza problem
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198
    Starmer has a real issue on his left flank doesn’t he?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,550
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I'm just confused with these results now, no more predicting seat counts from me, not sure what to think. Certainly an entertaining night anyhow.

    It is unusually capricious. Good fun. I fell drunkenly asleep during the boring wait-y bit which was perfect
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Coutinho has held on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    edited July 5
    Labour gain Watford and Milton Keynes Central
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Luke Akehurst elected in Durham NE, cheers lads, Novara Media are crying now.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    CON hold a seat in Surrey!

    Surrey E !!!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1m
    Lib Dems take Tunbridge Wells, a seat the Tories have held forever on a 21.4% swing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited July 5
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It does so far look to have been a quite large miss for the MRPs.

    If we never have to hear/see another MRP poll again I won't be sorry...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    IanB2 said:

    IOW W Labour gain, 13200 v Tory 10,000. Seely gone, Labour’s chippie from Cowes elected

    First IOW Labour MP ever
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent

    Yes.
    Guess he will get an early peerage then?
    First winnable by election for Labour.

    He's 45.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    biggles said:

    Starmer has a real issue on his left flank doesn’t he?

    Yup
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,453
    Tice elected.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It does so far look to have been a quite large miss for the MRPs.

    Can't blame them!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Tories lost Redditch by just 789 votes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001441
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,721
    HYUFD said:

    Jenrick holds Newark and Cons hold Surrey E

    Pity.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    Claire Coutinho holds.

    Leadership run?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Watford and Milton Keynes Central

    Despite a 4% drop in their share.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001568
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    BBC have cameras at Boston and at Clacton and at Ashfield.

    But not at Bristol.

    Tossers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent

    Yes.
    Guess he will get an early peerage then?
    First winnable by election for Labour.

    He's 45.
    Peerage would be faster way of getting him into cabinet?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con hold Droitwich
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    SMukesh said:

    Boston. Another bet came through

    Tice calls his election in Boston the proudest day in his life
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    Cons HOLD Romford - exit poll said 99% Lab chance!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Stirling is being reported as a Lab gain from SNP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Labour gain Stirling and Gedling
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,550
    Reform is the story
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Romford was Lab gain on EP
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    Exit poll seems to have got Scotland very wrong.

    Ah well, a distant country of which we know little.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    It will be Penny v Kemi for leader.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Penny declaration now
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,691
    biggles said:

    Starmer has a real issue on his left flank doesn’t he?

    He's had his wings clipped.

    This is a very flaky majority.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Labour almost lose Llanelli to Reform.

    Lab 12751
    Ref 11247
    PC 9511
    Con 4275

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/W07000098
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    Penny declaration
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    How big a majority?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    biggles said:

    Starmer has a real issue on his left flank doesn’t he?

    Inevitable.

    The question in 2028 will be whether the left/green/reform pincer movement is enough to overturn such a huge majority???
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Labour win Beckenham and hold Oxford E and Lewisham W

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    Pre-ordained in your mind
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    biggles said:

    Starmer has a real issue on his left flank doesn’t he?

    Still, as long as he can bring a lasting and equitable peace to the Middle East in a way that is wholly satisfactory for Jews and Muslims alike in the next five years, he ought to be fine.
    Well, it is very much *his* responsibility to do so…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Labour gain Grimsby
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,691
    The Conservatives might have been able to get to a hung parliament with no Farage and a good campaign.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,168
    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    You mean how you went to bed with them looking at 14 MPs and woke up with them looking at four?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    GIN1138 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It does so far look to have been a quite large miss for the MRPs.

    If we never have to hear/see another MRP poll again I won't be sorry...
    Assuming politics is simply a matter of demographics ignores candidates, campaigns, organisation, local issues and, well, a significant chunk of what we all recognise as politics.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Disappointing for the LDs that they haven't easily taken Godalming & Ash, Hunt must have a personal vote there.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,089
    Aldershot as expected goes Labour.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198
    Every election of my life, the exit polls have undercooked the Tories by 15-30. One day I will learn to bet on that fact.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    edited July 5
    UK vote share now Lab 38%, Tories 22%, Ref 16%, LDs 10%, Greens 7%
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,360
    Suella Braverman is a dreadful speaker. She sounds like a schoolteacher talking to a five year old.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,488
    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    Er, no. Labour landslide is the story.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It does so far look to have been a quite large miss for the MRPs.

    UNS seems to have been better than any of the models. I can't understand why, though!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Green gain Suffolk Coastal
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    Greens GAIN Suffolk Coastal from Cons!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Tories unexpectedly hold Staffordshire Moorlands, given the swings in other seats in the area like Lichfield.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001514
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,313
    SLAB gain Stirling
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    LDs GAIN Ely!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Every time a Tory speaks to the media my feelings that it's going to be a complete mess over the next few years become ever stronger.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited July 5
    Casino_Royale said:

    The Conservatives might have been able to get to a hung parliament with no Farage and a good campaign.

    The disastrous first week of the campaign. Farage was going to go nowhere the GE until Sunak stood there blowing his own feet off.

    I don't think Tories get anywhere near a hung parliament, but certainly not a mega majority on 36-37% of the vote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    biggles said:

    Every election of my life, the exit polls have undercooked the Tories by 15-30. One day I will learn to bet on that fact.

    I did mention it shortly before 2200 last night.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Greens GAIN Suffolk Coastal from Cons!

    Omg!
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,124
    Greens win Bristol and Suffolk Coastal
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MikeL said:

    Green gain Suffolk Coastal

    Not convinced.

    Bury St Edmunds was also "announced" early
This discussion has been closed.