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Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 5 in General
Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

NEW: BBC Forecast reduces Labour majority, Tories up beyond 150 seats:LAB: 405CON: 154LIB: 56SNP: 6REF: 4

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    First.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Hearing Carla has won Bristol Central and Greens a very strong second in Bristol South
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    edited July 5
    Sir John has done an outstanding job with this exit poll in what is a very difficult and complicated election.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,248
    edited July 5
    Fareham & Waterlooville -> Con hold

    Con (Braverman) 17,561
    Lab 11,482
    LD 9,533
    Ref 9,084
    Grn 2,056
    Rejoin 210
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    President Joe Biden is facing pressure from some major Democratic donors as he faces a critical few days in his campaign for re-election.

    A number of donors are publicly warning they will withhold funds unless Mr Biden is replaced as the party's candidate following his disastrous debate performance last week.

    They include Abigail Disney, an heiress to the Disney family fortune, Hollywood producer Damon Lindelof, Hollywood agent Ari Emanuel, and philanthropist and entrepreneur Gideon Stein.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjl65p8j87ko
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,211
    Lichfield has gone Labour. Wow!
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Andy_JS said:

    Fareham & Waterlooville -> Con hold

    Con 17,561
    Lab 11,482
    LD 9,533
    Ref 9,084
    Rejoin 210

    One of the few tactical voting fails of the election so far.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    edited July 5
    Have the BBC adjusted this down too much based on some very specific, weird seats, like Chingford and Leicester South?
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Braverman returned.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    rcs1000 said:

    I think I may be able to afford a new bicycle.

    I have my eyes on an a very nice carbon fiber one with SRAM AXS Rival.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Suella holds on in Fareham!
  • Options
    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034
    Gillian Keegan annihilated in Chichester... lib dems with a 12k majority I think!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    Labour gain Hemel Hempstead
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,441

    Have the BBC adjusted this down too much based on some very specific, weird seats, like Chingford and Leicester South?

    Just a tweak really
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    FossFoss Posts: 750
    Beeb saying the Greens have Bristol Central.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    148grss said:

    Hearing Carla has won Bristol Central and Greens a very strong second in Bristol South

    That’ll be a Green gain in Bristol South in 2029.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    Yes, Starmer is doing poorly among some minorities like Muslims, but he's winning lots of seats among other minorities like Scots.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    edited July 5

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material, says sorry for the party breaking its promises
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Greens take Bristol C, confirmed
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Bristol Central goes Green!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    SUELLA FOR LEADER
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Goodness me, I did back the LDs in Hampshire NE as well.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,248
    Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes -> Lab gain

    Lab 15,336
    Ref 10,533
    Con 8,269
    Grn 1,115
    LD 1,036
    TUSC 222
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,248
    edited July 5
    Bristol Central -> Green gain
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,229
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think I may be able to afford a new bicycle.

    I have my eyes on an a very nice carbon fiber one with SRAM AXS Rival.
    Surely you need DuraAce...
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    HYUFD said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material
    If Sue-Ellen did become Con leader they really would be back to being the Nasty Party
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123

    Bristol Central goes Green!

    Hurrah!! Carla will be excellent in the Commons.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,248
    Just wondering whether Lab might slip below 400 seats with these occasional losses.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758

    Goodness me, I did back the LDs in Hampshire NE as well.

    I had £3 at 33-1. Also had money on the Tories, but a good result overall.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Con holfd Staffs Moorlands - maj 1,175
  • Options

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    56.6% for Denyer in Bristol C is the largest vote share I’ve seen for any party so far!
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    SNP hold Perth and Kinross-shire, which percentages be damned is their historically safest seat.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    HYUFD said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material
    Awful stuff
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    edited July 5

    Have the BBC adjusted this down too much based on some very specific, weird seats, like Chingford and Leicester South?

    The results so far in Labour v Tory seats almost exactly match the results in 1997.

    It is only in Tory v LD seats where the Tories are doing significantly worse than 1997, especially in strong Remain seats.

    Tories are doing better in Scotland though than 1997 it looks like and will avoid the wipe out they received then
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    So, 3 Labour losses so far
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Very narrow Tory hold in Havant
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    Hey, don't forget IDS held on...
  • Options
    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,714
    Carla Denyer will be the best looking MP in my book
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131
    MikeL said:

    Con holfd Staffs Moorlands - maj 1,175

    I can hear the echo. "Ooooh, Blair won that"
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    She’s awful.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326
    "Malleus ScotNatorum"

    I laughed. I tried not to. But I laughed. I am a bad person
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Andy_JS said:

    Just wondering whether Lab might slip below 400 seats with these occasional losses.

    could be close. I am Green on less than 400.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    Braverman just sounds deranged.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    By what time do you think we will get a national vote share estimate?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Basildon declares!
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Braverman is revolting
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Snp will be well above 6, Perth is a hold. Can't see any Con gains
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    Lib Dems being down on the exit poll in this new prediction is odd.

    Exit poll had Newton Abbot at 41% shot for them, Stratford-on-Avon 36%, Chichester 15%, and NE Hampshire 9%. Where are the equivalent misses so far?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
    No, you're confusing my posts for your posts on Silicon Valley Bank.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    biggles said:

    She’s awful.

    What a creepy speech.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Basildon declaration.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    edited July 5
    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,248
    I've got a Lab MP for the first time at a general election, (although there was briefly one due to a by-election).
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    Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 202
    edited July 5

    Braverman just sounds deranged.

    Not to your average GBeebies viewer.

    Her problem may well be that she's not deranged enough.
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    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 503
    edited July 5
    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    Kemi's lovely.

    Suella's evil.

    So she'll probably win...

    (I still think tories if any sense should wait a bit before choosing)
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123

    HYUFD said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material
    Awful stuff
    Good luck Tories if she is leader. Five wasted years ahead.

    The next tory PM is still at sixth form or at least at an Oxford Ball.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    56.6% for Denyer in Bristol C is the largest vote share I’ve seen for any party so far!

    We heard it from @MoonRabbit first
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    Holden by 20 votes.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Holden holds on.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Holden just hangs on to Basildon!
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    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
    No, you're confusing my posts for your posts on Silicon Valley Bank.
    No I think I know exactly what your posts are and that is 99% tripe. You may be a good moderator (remains to be seen) but you don't half post nonsense.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just wondering whether Lab might slip below 400 seats with these occasional losses.

    could be close. I am Green on less than 400.
    Won’t take a lot for the SNP to sneak some and help get the number under 400.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Dic Holden wins by 20 votes.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,248
    edited July 5
    Basildon & Billericay -> Con hold

    Con (Holden) 12,905
    Lab 12,885
    Ref 11,354
    LD 2,292
    Grn 2,123
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    These streams from declarations are hopeless. Better years ago.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    edited July 5
    SMukesh said:

    Carla Denyer will be the best looking MP in my book

    Lib Dem MP for Chichester
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    edited July 5
    Oooh, that's close in Bas-vegas!

    Holden-on
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    Chicken run wins by a neck.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
    Well then you’re fucking doomed
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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,714
    Wow. 20 votes.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    Holden wins Basildon on about 28%
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    Yes! Cates has gone. Bye!
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Really disappointing news from Basildon.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,248
    Sky News -> 100 votes in it in Godalming & Ash.
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,229
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
    Is now the time to end that policy and leave it to MPs?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Hubris rather than humility from IDS
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    viewcode said:

    "Malleus ScotNatorum"

    I laughed. I tried not to. But I laughed. I am a bad person

    Why are you a bad person for laughing at that?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,248
    The provision of results and declarations gets worse at each election I've watched.
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    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 630
    High chance Labour lose at least one of the Tower Hamlet seats now
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    JamesFJamesF Posts: 42
    HUGE HUGE HUGE Green win in Bristol Central!
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    BBC giving Carla Denyer about 1% of the attention they give Farage.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326
    Green 56.6% +30.6
    Labour Lab 32.6% −25.9
    Conservative Con 4.6% −9.7
    Reform UK Reform 3.1% +1.9
    Liberal Democrat Lib Dem 2.7% +2.7
    Party of Women Women 0.5% +0.5

    https://election.news.sky.com/elections/general-election-2024/bristol-central-99
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12273/chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold-thin-gruel-politicalbetting-com
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
    No, you're confusing my posts for your posts on Silicon Valley Bank.
    No I think I know exactly what your posts are and that is 99% tripe. You may be a good moderator (remains to be seen) but you don't half post nonsense.
    Cheerio
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    The recent results sure are weird.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,248
    edited July 5
    Boston & Skegness -> Reform gain

    Ref 15,520
    Con 13,510
    Lab 7,629
    Grn 1,506
    LD 1,375
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    IDS thoroughly graceless on BBC
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Yes! Cates has gone. Bye!

    Tory gain.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Tice GAINS Boston for REFORM!
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Tice elected
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    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 503
    Chameleon said:

    Really disappointing news from Basildon.

    made a lovely evening so far very angry me grrr
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    IanB2 said:

    Hubris rather than humility from IDS

    Who cares, he's a good MP. Glad he's back.

    Suella however...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    LDs gain Tunbridge Wells
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Tice wins Boston & Skegeness for Reform.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Oh god, the centrist dads of PB sound like the French Republicans in about 2015
This discussion has been closed.