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Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Ghedebrav said:

    Greens GAIN Suffolk Coastal from Cons!

    Omg!
    No way
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    edited July 5
    Portsmouth North

    Penny loses to Lab!!!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,578
    edited July 5
    Mordaunt out. :(
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited July 5
    Portsmouth North -> Lab gain

    Lab 14,495
    Con 13,715
    Ref 8,501
    LD 3,031
    Grn 1,851

    Lab maj 780

    turnout 59%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 5
    Portsmouth N

    Lab 14495
    LDs 3031
    Cons 13715
    Ref 8501

    Penny Mordaunt defeated
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    edited July 5
    Labour topple Penny by 780
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Penny dropped
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Penny out!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    It will be Penny v Kemi for leader.

    No it won't!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643
    Penny's dropped...
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Penny gone.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Penny gone!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Penny out!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    It will be Penny v Kemi for leader.

    Errr maybe not then.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    Penny gone.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,756
    Penny loses a close fight.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    Penny falls on her sword
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    Mordaunt loses to lab
  • The weird results have now been replaced by more expected results.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,415
    Reform have sunk Mordaunt.

    Not a great Labour vote. She'd have got it without the Wokery.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 5
    Lab gain Middlesborough S and Cleveland Simon Clarke defeated
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    COFFEY out - Green gain. Christ, Labour and the Tories aren't the only 2 parties with massive issues in their coalitions.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,412
    Penny gone
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Brighton Pavilion has not yet declared. Should I be concerned?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    The Reform vote did for Penny.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Penny loses.

    Booo.

    Had she become leader I would have become her speechwriter and Chief of Staff.

    We would have broken her record of the most uses of the word 'cock' in a Commons speech.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Mercer gone
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories unexpectedly hold Staffordshire Moorlands, given the swings in other seats in the area like Lichfield.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001514

    Its a proper funny place with funny folk, not in the comedian way.
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 182
    Just put a fiver on hunt as next leader at 80 to 1
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    Thérèse Coffey gone from Suffolk Coastal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Ghedebrav said:

    Can the bbc dislodge their head and camera from Reform’s arse to pay any attention to these green gains?

    Nope
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Sussex Weald Con hold
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Mercer out
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 182
    50-50 to keep his seat…
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Johnny Mercer has lost.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    The Wokepenny gone
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Low turnout and Reform getting involved means few impressive vote counts for winning candidates.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    These results are a bloodbath for the Tories and the SNP.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806

    Penny falls on her sword

    This was the comment that nailed it.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Haha Penny Mordaunt, Therese Coffey, Johnny Mercer all lose.

    Nasty pieces of work all of them

    Yay!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    MikeL said:

    Green gain Suffolk Coastal

    Not convinced.

    Bury St Edmunds was also "announced" early
    Actually a Labour gain
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    20s
    Where on earth did that come from?! I don't think anyone had the Greens winning that seat.
  • Mercer out

    Thank God. He behaved like such a tool these last few weeks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Suffolk Coastal Lab gain
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    CORRECTION: LAB WINS SUFFOLK COASTAL

    Coffey out.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited July 5
    Chameleon said:

    COFFEY out - Green gain. Christ, Labour and the Tories aren't the only 2 parties with massive issues in their coalitions.

    Just to clarify - transcription error by Sky - actually Lab gain.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    Mercer gone, huzzah!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,415
    What is it that I can easily listen to Ed Balls but turn over instantly when Mandelson comes on?

    Erugh.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Thérèse Coffey gone from Suffolk Coastal.

    Sad news along with Penny
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    MikeL said:

    CORRECTION: LAB WINS SUFFOLK COASTAL

    Coffey out.

    Hah.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    45s
    Simon Clarke has lost Middlesborough South.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    John Swinney looking devastated on BBC Scotland.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    Johnny Mercer has lost.

    A real pity but no surprise
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Mercer loses. Nice

    And Dumbartonshire Mid returns home to the Lib Dems. Worth a jig.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    REF come second in Hornchurch & Upminster

    Con 32.5
    REF 28.4
    Lab 27.6
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    Ely and East Cambridgeshire has ditched Lucy Frazer.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    Reform have sunk Mordaunt.

    Not a great Labour vote. She'd have got it without the Wokery.

    Yet another case where it's been a truly terrible night for the Labour Party.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Heathener said:

    Haha Penny Mordaunt, Therese Coffey, Johnny Mercer all lose.

    Nasty pieces of work all of them

    Yay!

    Soooooo pleased all of them have lost. Nasty pieces of work.
  • Labour just about to reach its 2015 result.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    LDs GAIN Glasto from Cons
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Solihull W Con hold
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,412
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    Er, no. Labour landslide is the story.

    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    Er, no. Labour landslide is the story.
    You can be sure that the media coverage minutes per seat for Reform will be somewhat greater than for Greens per seat or Lib Dems per seat.
    Yup. BBC :love: Reform
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 795
    edited July 5
    anyone else think the reform candidate against penny looked like a chubbier and shorter joe biden? might explain why he's been so distracted recently
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Sevenoaks Con hold
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Thangam Debbonaire was probably my favourite Labour MP, sad to see her lose her seat in Bristol Central.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,376

    John Swinney looking devastated on BBC Scotland.

    Another SNP leadership candidate election incoming?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    HYUFD said:

    Sussex Weald Con hold

    Praise be! The Tories won't be entirely wiped out of Sussex!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Don’t get the Curtice adjustments at all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Tories win Sevenoaks by miles - LDs overtake Labour to take second, another fail by the tactical vote sites.

    So I win my bet at 1/3, which I doubt I will ever see for that seat again.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    HYUFD said:

    Lab gain Middlesborough S and Cleveland Simon Clarke defeated

    Couple of hundred votes, Clarke will be one of the highest tory vote shares at 42%
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited July 5
    Saqib Bhatti wins fairly easily in Meriden & Solihull East;

    CON: 16,792
    LAB: 12,208
    LIB DEM: 3,353
    GREEN: 2,929
    REF: 8,753
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Westmorland and Lonsdale LD gain
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Reform have sunk Mordaunt.

    Not a great Labour vote. She'd have got it without the Wokery.

    18% swing Con to Lab but hey ;)
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 182
    Surely it’s Penny drops…
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    Claire Coutinho has held on in East Surrey.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    Mercer lost
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,578
    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see Penny lose :(

    Yeah, the Conservative Party's not going to learn the right lessons and make a massive rightwards swing, isn't it, given the survivors. They're going to be out of power for 15 years.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Ghedebrav said:

    Can the bbc dislodge their head and camera from Reform’s arse to pay any attention to these green gains?

    This is one of our biggest problems. The media stiffy for the far right.
  • Labour won Suffolk Coastal.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    ydoethur said:

    John Swinney looking devastated on BBC Scotland.

    Another SNP leadership candidate election incoming?
    It's time for Forbes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Andy_JS said:

    Thangam Debbonaire was probably my favourite Labour MP, sad to see her lose her seat in Bristol Central.

    Labour top team weakened. Culture secretary who was properly in the arts.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Haha Penny Mordaunt, Therese Coffey, Johnny Mercer all lose.

    Nasty pieces of work all of them

    Yay!

    Soooooo pleased all of them have lost. Nasty pieces of work.
    PENNY held a SWORD. Be more respectful
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Labour won Suffolk Coastal.

    John Gummer's former seat, when it seemed like a Tory fortress.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    "democracy is never wrong" Mordaunt
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,278
    Penny showing class as always
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149

    LDs GAIN Glasto from Cons

    Ah yes. "Oh, Sa-ar-ah Dyke!" as I believe huge crowds chanted at Glasto last week.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Mordaunt speech: “Democracy is never wrong.” Good concession speech.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    edited July 5
    Bassetlaw is Lab gain, Reform in third, exit poll had Refor m winning.



    https://x.com/I_am_the_Paulus/status/1809055989733228685/photo/1
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Mercer gone!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Bye Jonny and Felicity!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,376
    HYUFD said:

    Westmorland and Lonsdale LD gain

    Huh? Or is that based on a notional Tory win last time on new boundaries?
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    BTW, well done @Sean_F for pointing out the BBC exit poll update, earlier.

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited July 5

    Ghedebrav said:

    Can the bbc dislodge their head and camera from Reform’s arse to pay any attention to these green gains?

    This is one of our biggest problems. The media stiffy for the far right.
    Person espouses moderate opinion is not news and doesn't drive clicks or views.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    HYUFD said:

    Westmorland and Lonsdale LD gain

    Praise the Lord.

    (slightly too much)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    GIN1138 said:

    Penny showing class as always

    Penny reading out her leadership declaration, you mean? No point wasting it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348

    Ghedebrav said:

    Can the bbc dislodge their head and camera from Reform’s arse to pay any attention to these green gains?

    This is one of our biggest problems. The media stiffy for the far right.
    Reform will poll far better than the Greens tonight.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ydoethur said:

    John Swinney looking devastated on BBC Scotland.

    Another SNP leadership candidate election incoming?
    Nippy said there was no threat to his leadership

    So, yes...
This discussion has been closed.