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Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Alan Mak holds Havant by 92 votes

    Con 12986
    Lab 12894
    Ref 9959
    LD 3275
    Grn 2861
    WPB 211

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001275
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    edited July 5
    Cicero said:

    Dorking going Lib Fem

    You have a typo, that should read "[it's all] Forking going Lib Dem"
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Ah, Bromsgrove stayed Tory. I really did not believe the Lab gain in the Exit Poll.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.

    There's our Portillo moment?
    Peston moment more like
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Bromsgrove Con hold, Weston super Mare Lab gain
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    The exit poll/projections are looking a touch uncertain at the moment with all of these changes!

    Makes it exciting at least!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Yvette Cooper survives
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,461
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.

    Turnip for the books?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    rkrkrk said:

    MikeL said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Streeting hangs on by 500

    Goodness me - Streeting could easily have lost.
    That's mad... what has gone on there? Another Gaza backlash?
    There’s a reasonable chance this won’t be an electoral issue in the UK in 2029 though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,992
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC thinks it's more important to talk to Alex Salmond than show a declaration.

    Caused me to switch over.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 947
    williamglenn said:

    BBC forecast has changed again:

    Labour: 410 seats
    Conservative: 144 seats
    Liberal Democrat: 58 seats
    Scottish National Party: 8 seats
    Reform UK: 4 seats
    Other 26

    Well at least SNP are destroyed. Brexit has ended independence for now
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,452
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.

    Turnip for the books?
    The away list.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    Sheffield Hallam held by Labour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,992
    edmundintokyo said:

    Tories got rid of the European Parliament elections, forcing the voters to deliver their European Parliament election result in a general election

    Lol
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    williamglenn said:

    BBC forecast has changed again:

    Labour: 410 seats
    Conservative: 144 seats
    Liberal Democrat: 58 seats
    Scottish National Party: 8 seats
    Reform UK: 4 seats
    Other 26

    The Exit Poll has been brilliant except for Reform, who have underperformed
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,992
    Con hold IoW East
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    Labour have won Tamworth, their 302nd target! On a 24%+ swing...

    https://x.com/gsoh31/status/1809066473660338229
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 107
    I hope somebody took my tip on Chris Philp to hang on!
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,336
    MikeL said:


    Con wins Berwick by 6,599 - suggests may do well in Scotland

    SNP have held both Perth & Kinross and Aberdeen South. Labour have been winning other seats from 3rd place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Cons hold Sutton Coldfield
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,574
    Cicero said:

    Dorking going Lib Dem

    I think LDS might over achieve at a GE for once. There is a lot of SE and SW England to declare still.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    edited July 5
    Lab gain Glasgow South from SNP and Lab gain Bury S and Wolverhampton W from Tories
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,461
    williamglenn said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.

    Turnip for the books?
    The away list.
    Well, she fucked the entire country.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Con hold Broadland - maj 719
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    Looks like Big Gav Robinson has held onto Belfast East for the DUP

    Not a great night for APNI if so.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    Johnny Mercer loses to Labour, couldn't happen to a nicer man
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,601
    Looks like LAB might end up on 33%????
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,897
    Based on what we have seen so far, Labour might actually want PR. It would possibly give them a more solid foundation for the next election than FPTP.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 947
    Bow and Stepney could be a labour loss now
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995
    Jezza on ITV.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    New BBC forecast

    LDs back up to 58
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Sheffield Hallam:

    Olivia (Lab) 23,875
    Shaffaq (LD) 15,686
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    Casino_Royale said:

    Con hold IoW East

    So I got both sides of the island right. Haven’t seen the figures yet
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Sutton Coldfield

    BOOOOOO.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited July 5
    Monksfield said:

    Yvette Cooper survives

    More Reform bollocks.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,211
    At what time does Sunak concede?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    Monksfield said:

    Yvette Cooper survives

    With a majority of 6,600!

    Wtf was that Reform tweet on about? Just ridiculous.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    El_Capitano said:

    Sheffield Hallam:

    Olivia (Lab) 23,875
    Shaffaq (LD) 15,686

    Weren't the Lib Dems supposed to take this? Weird.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Lab GAIN Finchley
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    Darren McCaffrey
    @darrenmccaffrey
    ·
    16m
    🗳️✖️ LIB DEM GAIN Ely & East Cambridgeshire from CON

    🔵Another cabinet minister CMS Sec Lucy Frazer loses
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5
    JosiasJessop said:

    At what time does Sunak concede?

    After he has got his daily 6am Peloton session in ;-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    edited July 5
    Con hold Bexhill and Battle and Broadland and Fakenham and Stockton W and Isle of Wight E
  • SkiddertonSkidderton Posts: 15
    Yvette Cooper strolls in, reports of her demise were greatly exaggerated
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,992
    williamglenn said:

    Liz Truss could be third

    It's the one seat I might vote tactically against the Conservatives.

    Nutcase.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,104
    Ghedebrav said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MikeL said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Streeting hangs on by 500

    Goodness me - Streeting could easily have lost.
    That's mad... what has gone on there? Another Gaza backlash?
    There’s a reasonable chance this won’t be an electoral issue in the UK in 2029 though.
    UK support for Palestinian statehood is probably quite a significant vote winner now.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,811
    Gave up trying to get to sleep in the end, I've been watching events and it's all been quite absorbing. Looks like Rishi is going to end up somewhere around the 1906 beating rather even worse. But the SNP, gosh. Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of people.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ilford North

    Labour Wes Streeting 15,647 (33.4 -20.8)
    Independent Leanne Mohamad 15,119 (32.2 +32.2)
    Conservative Kaz Rizvi 9,619 (20.5 -16.2)
    Reform UK Alex Wilson 3,621 (7.7 +5.9)
    Green Rachel Collinson 1,794 (3.8 +2.5)
    Liberal Democrat Fraser Coppin 1,088 (2.3 -1.7)

    Woah, that is white knuckle territory
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    edited July 5
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Lab GAIN Finchley

    Another exit poll fail

    Reform second, then Greens, then Labour

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,876
    londonpubman said:

    Looks like LAB might end up on 33%????

    With over half the seats counted we should get a projected national share of the vote soon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    El_Capitano said:

    Sheffield Hallam:

    Olivia (Lab) 23,875
    Shaffaq (LD) 15,686

    Rumours of a LD gain were greatly exaggerated.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 656
    KnightOut said:

    I hope somebody took my tip on Chris Philp to hang on!

    Didn't realise you'd officially tipped it, but I certainly copied it, thank you sir!
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 947
    londonpubman said:

    Looks like LAB might end up on 33%????

    And win 200 seat majority. Time to end fptp
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,461
    Worth remembering this is only the second election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double digit majority has conceded a double digit (or triple digit) majority to the opposition.

    It really is a strange election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    AlsoLei said:

    Looks like Big Gav Robinson has held onto Belfast East for the DUP

    Not a great night for APNI if so.

    That is a great hold for the DUP if so
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    BBC focuses on Farage in its leading website headline.

    FFS. When will this stop?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,164
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Streeting hangs on by 500

    Goodness me - Streeting could easily have lost.
    He must have lost pretty much every Muslim voter in his seat
    It's not as simple as that. A block vote doesn't mean all Muslims, it also frames the anti Labour focus for other leftists and the right should they choose to do so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,376
    Wolverhampton West, chunky odds on bet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Labour gain Gillingham and Rainham and York Outer
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    Andy_JS said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Sheffield Hallam:

    Olivia (Lab) 23,875
    Shaffaq (LD) 15,686

    Rumours of a LD gain were greatly exaggerated.
    The exit poll forecasting LD gains from Lab was always just dumb
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Cannock Chase often has the biggest swing in the country. It did in 2010 if I remember correctly.

    The reason? It's full of white van man/woman types of voters.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 125
    JosiasJessop said:

    At what time does Sunak concede?

    After his sandwiches.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    End billionaires says Jezza. Probably not going to win you Hexham.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5
    rottenborough said:

    BBC focuses on Farage in its leading website headline.

    FFS. When will this stop?

    I bet it is because it gets them clicks (like Trump does for US media).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    ydoethur said:

    Worth remembering this is only the second election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double digit majority has conceded a double digit (or triple digit) majority to the opposition.

    It really is a strange election.

    Might well not the be the last.

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Monksfield said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ilford North

    Labour Wes Streeting 15,647 (33.4 -20.8)
    Independent Leanne Mohamad 15,119 (32.2 +32.2)
    Conservative Kaz Rizvi 9,619 (20.5 -16.2)
    Reform UK Alex Wilson 3,621 (7.7 +5.9)
    Green Rachel Collinson 1,794 (3.8 +2.5)
    Liberal Democrat Fraser Coppin 1,088 (2.3 -1.7)

    Woah, that is white knuckle territory
    Also a lot of fake stuff going round on social media about Wes Streeting as well - deepfake-type videos, I believe. It should probably be looked into more deeply.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    IanB2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Lab GAIN Finchley

    Another exit poll fail
    That was obviously nonsense, predicting a LD win in Finchley.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,992
    IanB2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Lab GAIN Finchley

    Another exit poll fail
    It's designed to average out nationwide, not forecast individual seats precisely.

    That said, some of the 99%+ stuff didn't exactly manage expectations.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Broadland and Fakenham Con Hold, as tipped by me ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,376
    Wolverhampton West a Labour gain. Biggest odds on bet ! Was a touch worried it'd get Gazaed.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.

    Thing is, in 2019 the narrative was that Boris/Dom had made a new alignment and Labour were in the hole for good.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.

    It is however much better to have control of the ball....you can effect change, while all your opponents can do is complain. It why I never subscribe to the "its a good election to lose".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Declarations I would have loved to see tonight are the likes of Bristol Central, Leicester East, Leicester South, Sheffield Hallam. I haven't seen any of them so far, not sure if any channel did show them.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.

    Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 874
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.

    Perhaps. But it's a substantial majority and if regular politics resume then it could take a while to overturn.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701
    The biggest subplot is the Reform surge
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    edited July 5
    Stockton West May end up the sole NE seat for Con
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,461
    Andy_JS said:

    Cannock Chase often has the biggest swing in the country. It did in 2010 if I remember correctly.

    The reason? It's full of white van man/woman types of voters.

    Gee thanks.

    But actually it was quite close this time. Possibly because Amanda Milling is generally inoffensive and the Labour candidate came across as an arrogant prick, but even so.

    It also retains its record of only once not voting for the winning party in the last 55 years (1992).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    Green - Bristol - 10K majority.

    Wow.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    PedestrianRock said:

    The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.

    Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.

    16 and 17 year olds will be voting. Will they have introduced PR?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Alliance have gained Jeffrey Donaldson's old seat in Lagan Valley.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/N05000009
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    Also on turnout, any indications if voting ID has made an impact?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 656
    PedestrianRock said:

    The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.

    Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.

    This was a kick tories in face election.

    2029 may well be the kick labour in the face election.

    I'm pretty optimistic cause either labour sort things out or I can kick them in the face. What's not to like?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5
    PedestrianRock said:

    The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.

    Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.

    This is the tricky part. This isn't 1997. We haven't had good solid continuous growth for 20 years now.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,637
    Tories drifting out on the 150-199 seat band again, now at 9. Could be value again.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,876
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.

    Indeed. It's very much a freak result. +400 seats with maybe 35% of the vote and turnout at or even under 60%.

    It's a very, very odd election and I can't see it being replicated in 2029.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    Leon said:

    The biggest subplot is the Reform surge

    Which didn’t happen
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,461
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    PedestrianRock said:

    The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.

    Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.

    16 and 17 year olds will be voting. Will they have introduced PR?
    With this majority and so much volatility in the electorate? No.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    The biggest subplot is the Reform surge

    Which didn’t happen
    Leon's relegated it to a subplot already
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Andy_JS said:

    Declarations I would have loved to see tonight are the likes of Bristol Central, Leicester East, Leicester South, Sheffield Hallam. I haven't seen any of them so far, not sure if any channel did show them.

    Really quite cross about Bristol (as a green), but also about the fascinating Leicester seats as well, all ignored for the Reform/media soggy biscuit.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,164
    Andy_JS said:

    Alliance have gained Jeffrey Donaldson's old seat in Lagan Valley.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/N05000009

    Sorcha. She's got a bit of star quality.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    Leon said:

    The biggest subplot is the Reform surge

    Is it the subplot?

    I suspect the BBC are going to bang on about all weekend and interview Farage and Tice once an hour for the next three days.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    IoW split Lab / Con
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    edited July 5
    GIN1138 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.

    Indeed. It's very much a freak result. +400 seats with maybe 35% of the vote and turnout at or even under 60%.

    It's a very, very odd election and I can't see it being replicated in 2029.
    Lots of tactical voting and very, very, smart seat winning. An unofficial Lab-LibDem pincer movement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,716
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    PedestrianRock said:

    The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.

    Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.

    16 and 17 year olds will be voting. Will they have introduced PR?
    Labour will never introduce PR. Nor the Tories. Just look how it shuts out rivals to left and right.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    edited July 5
    Hunt’s declaration…Hunt wins

    And Sunak’s…Con 23,000 Lab 10,800 Ref 7,100. What nonsense about it being marginal
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard -> Lab gain

    Lab 14976
    Con 14309
    Ref 8071
    LD 6497
    Grn 2115

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001206
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,811
    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Lab GAIN Finchley

    Another exit poll fail
    It's designed to average out nationwide, not forecast individual seats precisely.

    That said, some of the 99%+ stuff didn't exactly manage expectations.
    Overall it's not done at all badly - and, given the huge complicating effect of Reform, it's probably not a surprise that it hasn't been even more accurate.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Mansfield returns to Labour. Bye to Ben Bradley…..
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,104
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.

    Pressure is really on for Labour to deliver, particularly if Cons and Reform merge in some way.
This discussion has been closed.