Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

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edited July 2024 in General
Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

NEW: BBC Forecast reduces Labour majority, Tories up beyond 150 seats:LAB: 405CON: 154LIB: 56SNP: 6REF: 4

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  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    First.
  • 148grss
    148grss Posts: 4,155
    Hearing Carla has won Bristol Central and Greens a very strong second in Bristol South
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited July 2024
    Sir John has done an outstanding job with this exit poll in what is a very difficult and complicated election.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited July 2024
    Fareham & Waterlooville -> Con hold

    Con (Braverman) 17,561
    Lab 11,482
    LD 9,533
    Ref 9,084
    Grn 2,056
    Rejoin 210
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,734
    President Joe Biden is facing pressure from some major Democratic donors as he faces a critical few days in his campaign for re-election.

    A number of donors are publicly warning they will withhold funds unless Mr Biden is replaced as the party's candidate following his disastrous debate performance last week.

    They include Abigail Disney, an heiress to the Disney family fortune, Hollywood producer Damon Lindelof, Hollywood agent Ari Emanuel, and philanthropist and entrepreneur Gideon Stein.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjl65p8j87ko
  • FeersumEnjineeya
    FeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,792
    Lichfield has gone Labour. Wow!
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    Andy_JS said:

    Fareham & Waterlooville -> Con hold

    Con 17,561
    Lab 11,482
    LD 9,533
    Ref 9,084
    Rejoin 210

    One of the few tactical voting fails of the election so far.
  • PedestrianRock
    PedestrianRock Posts: 589
    edited July 2024
    Have the BBC adjusted this down too much based on some very specific, weird seats, like Chingford and Leicester South?
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Braverman returned.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    rcs1000 said:

    I think I may be able to afford a new bicycle.

    I have my eyes on an a very nice carbon fiber one with SRAM AXS Rival.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Suella holds on in Fareham!
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    Gillian Keegan annihilated in Chichester... lib dems with a 12k majority I think!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Labour gain Hemel Hempstead
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    PedestrianRock said:

    Have the BBC adjusted this down too much based on some very specific, weird seats, like Chingford and Leicester South?

    Just a tweak really
  • Foss
    Foss Posts: 1,565
    Beeb saying the Greens have Bristol Central.
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    148grss said:

    Hearing Carla has won Bristol Central and Greens a very strong second in Bristol South

    That’ll be a Green gain in Bristol South in 2029.
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Yes, Starmer is doing poorly among some minorities like Muslims, but he's winning lots of seats among other minorities like Scots.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited July 2024
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material, says sorry for the party breaking its promises
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Greens take Bristol C, confirmed
  • El_Capitano
    El_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Bristol Central goes Green!
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,053
    SUELLA FOR LEADER
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Goodness me, I did back the LDs in Hampshire NE as well.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes -> Lab gain

    Lab 15,336
    Ref 10,533
    Con 8,269
    Grn 1,115
    LD 1,036
    TUSC 222
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited July 2024
    Bristol Central -> Green gain
  • Flatlander
    Flatlander Posts: 5,138
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think I may be able to afford a new bicycle.

    I have my eyes on an a very nice carbon fiber one with SRAM AXS Rival.
    Surely you need DuraAce...
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material
    If Sue-Ellen did become Con leader they really would be back to being the Nasty Party
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    El_Capitano said:

    Bristol Central goes Green!

    Hurrah!! Carla will be excellent in the Commons.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Just wondering whether Lab might slip below 400 seats with these occasional losses.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Casino_Royale said:

    Goodness me, I did back the LDs in Hampshire NE as well.

    I had £3 at 33-1. Also had money on the Tories, but a good result overall.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Con holfd Staffs Moorlands - maj 1,175
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,053
    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader
  • bondegezou
    bondegezou Posts: 15,133
    56.6% for Denyer in Bristol C is the largest vote share I’ve seen for any party so far!
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    SNP hold Perth and Kinross-shire, which percentages be damned is their historically safest seat.
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material
    Awful stuff
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited July 2024
    PedestrianRock said:

    Have the BBC adjusted this down too much based on some very specific, weird seats, like Chingford and Leicester South?

    The results so far in Labour v Tory seats almost exactly match the results in 1997.

    It is only in Tory v LD seats where the Tories are doing significantly worse than 1997, especially in strong Remain seats.

    Tories are doing better in Scotland though than 1997 it looks like and will avoid the wipe out they received then
  • bondegezou
    bondegezou Posts: 15,133
    So, 3 Labour losses so far
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Very narrow Tory hold in Havant
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    Hey, don't forget IDS held on...
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Carla Denyer will be the best looking MP in my book
  • Pro_Rata
    Pro_Rata Posts: 5,690
    MikeL said:

    Con holfd Staffs Moorlands - maj 1,175

    I can hear the echo. "Ooooh, Blair won that"
  • biggles
    biggles Posts: 6,817
    She’s awful.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    "Malleus ScotNatorum"

    I laughed. I tried not to. But I laughed. I am a bad person
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,170
    Andy_JS said:

    Just wondering whether Lab might slip below 400 seats with these occasional losses.

    could be close. I am Green on less than 400.
  • ThomasNashe
    ThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Braverman just sounds deranged.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,734
    By what time do you think we will get a national vote share estimate?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Basildon declares!
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Braverman is revolting
  • wooliedyed
    wooliedyed Posts: 12,808
    Snp will be well above 6, Perth is a hold. Can't see any Con gains
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    Lib Dems being down on the exit poll in this new prediction is odd.

    Exit poll had Newton Abbot at 41% shot for them, Stratford-on-Avon 36%, Chichester 15%, and NE Hampshire 9%. Where are the equivalent misses so far?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
    No, you're confusing my posts for your posts on Silicon Valley Bank.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    biggles said:

    She’s awful.

    What a creepy speech.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Basildon declaration.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited July 2024
    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    I've got a Lab MP for the first time at a general election, (although there was briefly one due to a by-election).
  • Tim_in_Ruislip
    Tim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    edited July 2024
    ThomasNashe said:

    Braverman just sounds deranged.

    Not to your average GBeebies viewer.

    Her problem may well be that she's not deranged enough.
  • Dumbosaurus
    Dumbosaurus Posts: 878
    edited July 2024
    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    Kemi's lovely.

    Suella's evil.

    So she'll probably win...

    (I still think tories if any sense should wait a bit before choosing)
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    Monksfield said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Suella holds on in Fareham!

    Suella speaking now and trying to look like leadership material
    Awful stuff
    Good luck Tories if she is leader. Five wasted years ahead.

    The next tory PM is still at sixth form or at least at an Oxford Ball.
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,170
    bondegezou said:

    56.6% for Denyer in Bristol C is the largest vote share I’ve seen for any party so far!

    We heard it from @MoonRabbit first
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Holden by 20 votes.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    Holden holds on.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Holden just hangs on to Basildon!
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
    No, you're confusing my posts for your posts on Silicon Valley Bank.
    No I think I know exactly what your posts are and that is 99% tripe. You may be a good moderator (remains to be seen) but you don't half post nonsense.
  • biggles
    biggles Posts: 6,817
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just wondering whether Lab might slip below 400 seats with these occasional losses.

    could be close. I am Green on less than 400.
    Won’t take a lot for the SNP to sneak some and help get the number under 400.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Dic Holden wins by 20 votes.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited July 2024
    Basildon & Billericay -> Con hold

    Con (Holden) 12,905
    Lab 12,885
    Ref 11,354
    LD 2,292
    Grn 2,123
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    These streams from declarations are hopeless. Better years ago.
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    edited July 2024
    SMukesh said:

    Carla Denyer will be the best looking MP in my book

    Lib Dem MP for Chichester
  • Selebian
    Selebian Posts: 9,544
    edited July 2024
    Oooh, that's close in Bas-vegas!

    Holden-on
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Chicken run wins by a neck.
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,053
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
    Well then you’re fucking doomed
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Wow. 20 votes.
  • londonpubman
    londonpubman Posts: 3,665
    Holden wins Basildon on about 28%
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Yes! Cates has gone. Bye!
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Really disappointing news from Basildon.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Sky News -> 100 votes in it in Godalming & Ash.
  • Flatlander
    Flatlander Posts: 5,138
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
    Is now the time to end that policy and leave it to MPs?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Hubris rather than humility from IDS
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    viewcode said:

    "Malleus ScotNatorum"

    I laughed. I tried not to. But I laughed. I am a bad person

    Why are you a bad person for laughing at that?
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    The provision of results and declarations gets worse at each election I've watched.
  • Nunu5
    Nunu5 Posts: 988
    High chance Labour lose at least one of the Tower Hamlet seats now
  • JamesF
    JamesF Posts: 42
    HUGE HUGE HUGE Green win in Bristol Central!
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    BBC giving Carla Denyer about 1% of the attention they give Farage.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    Green 56.6% +30.6
    Labour Lab 32.6% −25.9
    Conservative Con 4.6% −9.7
    Reform UK Reform 3.1% +1.9
    Liberal Democrat Lib Dem 2.7% +2.7
    Party of Women Women 0.5% +0.5

    https://election.news.sky.com/elections/general-election-2024/bristol-central-99
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12273/chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold-thin-gruel-politicalbetting-com
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Chris Curtis of YouGov has been elected.

    Of Opinium.
    Not of tripe?
    No, you're confusing my posts for your posts on Silicon Valley Bank.
    No I think I know exactly what your posts are and that is 99% tripe. You may be a good moderator (remains to be seen) but you don't half post nonsense.
    Cheerio
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    The recent results sure are weird.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited July 2024
    Boston & Skegness -> Reform gain

    Ref 15,520
    Con 13,510
    Lab 7,629
    Grn 1,506
    LD 1,375
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    IDS thoroughly graceless on BBC
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Monksfield said:

    Yes! Cates has gone. Bye!

    Tory gain.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Tice GAINS Boston for REFORM!
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Tice elected
  • Dumbosaurus
    Dumbosaurus Posts: 878
    Chameleon said:

    Really disappointing news from Basildon.

    made a lovely evening so far very angry me grrr
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    IanB2 said:

    Hubris rather than humility from IDS

    Who cares, he's a good MP. Glad he's back.

    Suella however...
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    LDs gain Tunbridge Wells
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Tice wins Boston & Skegeness for Reform.
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,053
    Oh god, the centrist dads of PB sound like the French Republicans in about 2015
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