The first key result sees a 16.5% Con to Lab swing. – politicalbetting.com

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  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Whats the Rayleigh result ?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    noneoftheabove said:

    Cons 100-149 drifting....1.3 to 1.6 in last 5 mins

    All #10 insiders getting their big bets on?
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    Sandpit said:

    Thank fuck for that!

    Richard Holden.

    Nominative determinism strikes again.
  • FeersumEnjineeya
    FeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,792
    edited July 2024
    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Shields

    Labour 5,122 / 41.1% / -3.0
    Reform UK 8,469 / 23.0% / +8.3
    Green 5,433 / 14.8% / +11.7
    Conservative 4,128 / 11.2% / -14.6
    Independent 2,270 / 6.2% / +6.2
    Liberal Democrat 1,402 / 3.8% / +0.3

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001492

    Labour 15,122!
    Huge Green vote there.

    Warming to my thesis that this is the Great Disillusionment Election of 2024.
    Labour will be delighted with losing vast numbers of votes in safe seats.
    Like Reform.

    Edit: Who so far seem to have a habit of coming second to Labour.
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Basildon recount?
  • noneoftheabove
    noneoftheabove Posts: 24,858
    noneoftheabove said:

    Cons 100-149 drifting....1.3 to 1.6 in last 5 mins

    Con Finishing position 2nd still some 1.03 which seems ok to lay if they are 30%+ to get under 100 seats.
  • carnforth
    carnforth Posts: 6,691
    Wings reckons there's a small but real chance the SNP could be fourth in Scotland.
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    Why are these counts taking SO long?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Pulpstar said:

    Whats the Rayleigh result ?

    https://x.com/tencor_7144/status/1809024744227819784
  • biggles
    biggles Posts: 6,817
    Andy_JS said:

    After these particular 10 results I was expecting the following changes:

    Con -20.8%
    Lab +1.5%
    LD +2.2%
    Ref +15.5%
    Grn +1.9%

    The actual changes are:

    Con -19.8%
    Lab +0.5%
    LD +1.0%
    Ref +13.4%
    Grn +4.1%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results

    Interesting. Still limited data I guess, but another amazing effort.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    EScrymgeour said:

    TUV hurting DUP in NI according to G Beebies NI correspondent

    SF vote also down though
  • Northern_Al
    Northern_Al Posts: 8,953
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Foxy said:

    John McDonnell in fine form on Sky.

    He is not going down the Corbyn route, being very chummy with Burnham

    It is why he is far more dangerous than Corbyn despite holding similar if not worse views.
    Don't be silly. A backbench MP from West London is hardly 'dangerous'.
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    @paulhutcheon

    NEW: A sizeable Reform vote is causing Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross problems in Aberdeenshire North and Moray Wast
  • Heathener
    Heathener Posts: 7,085
    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Shields

    Labour 5,122 / 41.1% / -3.0
    Reform UK 8,469 / 23.0% / +8.3
    Green 5,433 / 14.8% / +11.7
    Conservative 4,128 / 11.2% / -14.6
    Independent 2,270 / 6.2% / +6.2
    Liberal Democrat 1,402 / 3.8% / +0.3

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001492

    Labour 15,122!
    Huge Green vote there.

    Warming to my thesis that this is the Great Disillusionment Election of 2024.
    Labour will be delighted with losing vast numbers of votes in safe seats.
    Wes Streeting was very interesting before any results came in saying they piled all resources into Conservative seats, not their own ones.

    If that’s true they have played this very smartly.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Benpointer said:

    Why are these counts taking SO long?

    Poor productivity
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited July 2024
    Northern_Al said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Foxy said:

    John McDonnell in fine form on Sky.

    He is not going down the Corbyn route, being very chummy with Burnham

    It is why he is far more dangerous than Corbyn despite holding similar if not worse views.
    Don't be silly. A backbench MP from West London is hardly 'dangerous'.
    No, when he had some power. He is far more dangerous than Corbyn was, because for all Corbyn's faults he tells you straight what he believes.
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    The Reform guy on ITV sounds exactly like Nigel Farage. Weird and interesting in equal measure.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Is Katie Razzall high?
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    rcs1000 said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Nobody should use the word Brexit tonight - it's irrelevant.
    Bugger, I just have.

    But it rather looks to me as if Reform are severely damaging the Tories in Brexity-type seats, and Labour and/or the Lib Dems are going to slaughter the Tories in Remainy-type seats. So the Tories may well get lower than the exit poll suggests.

    Quite.

    It's why simple solutions are no solutions.
    Yes, but if the overcomplicated centrist solutions do not work, people will do simplistic populist ones. Sorry, I'm ranty again. It's 1:44am my time
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Labour up a decent amount in Rayleigh & Wickford, 9%.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Rayleigh & Wickford

    Con 17,756 (37.0% / -35.9%)
    Ref 12,135 (25.3% / +25.3%)
    Lab 11,823 (24.6% / +8.9%)
    LD 4,068 (8.5% / +0.8%)
    Grn 2,196 (4.6% / +0.9%)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001437
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    Sounds like the Greens could be on for Bristol C
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Heathener said:

    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Shields

    Labour 5,122 / 41.1% / -3.0
    Reform UK 8,469 / 23.0% / +8.3
    Green 5,433 / 14.8% / +11.7
    Conservative 4,128 / 11.2% / -14.6
    Independent 2,270 / 6.2% / +6.2
    Liberal Democrat 1,402 / 3.8% / +0.3

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001492

    Labour 15,122!
    Huge Green vote there.

    Warming to my thesis that this is the Great Disillusionment Election of 2024.
    Labour will be delighted with losing vast numbers of votes in safe seats.
    Wes Streeting was very interesting before any results came in saying they piled all resources into Conservative seats, not their own ones.

    If that’s true they have played this very smartly.
    That's Morgan McSweeney.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The Reform guy on ITV sounds exactly like Nigel Farage. Weird and interesting in equal measure.

    Isn't that Robert Peston?
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    @jessicaelgot

    Early signs that Penny Mordaunt def in trouble in her Portsmouth North seat, source says
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,865
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Are the Tories really getting 25% based on these results?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Pulpstar said:

    Whats the Rayleigh result ?

    https://election.news.sky.com/elections/general-election-2024/rayleigh-and-wickford-473

    Con 37
    REF 25.3
    Lab 24.6
    LD 8.5
    Gr 4.6
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    BBC suggests Bristol Central will go Green
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    BBC: full recount in Basildon.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    Full recount in BASILDON
  • Selebian
    Selebian Posts: 9,544
    Scott_xP said:

    Farooq said:

    KentRising said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm enjoying C4. The interviews with reporters at different counts is feeling quite Eurovision.
    Good evening London, and here are the results from the Portsmouth jury...

    Tonight is Eurovision for ugly people.
    Rory Stewart is a beautiful man and I will fight you
    “Tell Jabba I’ve got his money”


    He looks increasingly like the love child of Mick Jagger and Edwina Currie.

    Doesn't mean he's not beautiful, Farooq! :kissing_heart:
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    I am getting more confident that the shares of the vote are going to be as a result of tactical voting.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited July 2024
    rottenborough said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Are the Tories really getting 25% based on these results?

    Depends on tactical voting surely - I could see the Tories losing whole swathes of seats by not much. Also we've had what, 1 Tory safe seat?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Andy_JS said:

    Rayleigh & Wickford

    Con 17,756 (37.0% / -35.9%)
    Ref 12,135 (25.3% / +25.3%)
    Lab 11,823 (24.6% / +8.9%)
    LD 4,068 (8.5% / +0.8%)
    Grn 2,196 (4.6% / +0.9%)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001437

    I wouldn't read too much into that seat simply because of the problems with Mark Francois, no smoke without any fire.
  • Eabhal
    Eabhal Posts: 11,275
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The Reform guy on ITV sounds exactly like Nigel Farage. Weird and interesting in equal measure.

    I noticed that too. A bit like the way Sturgeon moves her head in the same way that Salmond does.
  • FeersumEnjineeya
    FeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,792
    Benpointer said:

    Why are these counts taking SO long?

    Something to do with labels and Brexit :wink:
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Farooq said:

    KentRising said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm enjoying C4. The interviews with reporters at different counts is feeling quite Eurovision.
    Good evening London, and here are the results from the Portsmouth jury...

    Tonight is Eurovision for ugly people.
    Rory Stewart is a beautiful man and I will fight you
    “Tell Jabba I’ve got his money”


    He looks increasingly like the love child of Mick Jagger and Edwina Currie.

    Doesn't mean he's not beautiful, Farooq! :kissing_heart:
    If I were gay, I would love to have sex with him
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Andy_JS said:

    Rayleigh & Wickford

    Con 17,756 (37.0% / -35.9%)
    Ref 12,135 (25.3% / +25.3%)
    Lab 11,823 (24.6% / +8.9%)
    LD 4,068 (8.5% / +0.8%)
    Grn 2,196 (4.6% / +0.9%)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001437

    Survation MRP off on this one
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    edited July 2024
    Lab GAIN Nuneaton from Con. Ref in 3rd.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Stroud -> Lab gain

    Lab 25,630
    Con 14,219
    Ref 6,329
    Grn 5,729
    LD 2,913
    Ind 261
    Volt 163

    Swing 12.4% from Con to Lab

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001529
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited July 2024
    Bellwether Nuneaton goes Con>Lab

    Turnout 58.7% though, is that the real story of tonight?
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Nuneaton goes Labour. That's it for me. Happy to call it.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Nuneaton goes red according to ITV
  • DecrepiterJohnL
    DecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,768
    Benpointer said:

    Why are these counts taking SO long?

    Some counts won't have started yet.
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Someone put a seat ticker up please!
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    I called Wimbledon right. Still think East Hants will be very close.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    When did Francois get let back in to the Tories?
  • londonpubman
    londonpubman Posts: 3,665
    Hideous result for CON in Nuneaton
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    Andy_JS said:

    After these particular 10 results I was expecting the following changes:

    Con -20.8%
    Lab +1.5%
    LD +2.2%
    Ref +15.5%
    Grn +1.9%

    The actual changes are:

    Con -19.8%
    Lab +0.5%
    LD +1.0%
    Ref +13.4%
    Grn +4.1%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results

    Well done Andy. What did your forecast lead to in seat counts?
  • Skidderton
    Skidderton Posts: 15
    Why are the BBC so slow to get the results up for constituencies that have declared? Laura talking about "we'll get the full details to you soon", are they using a telex machine?
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    londonpubman said:

    Hideous result for CON in Nuneaton

    Better than most MRPs
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    Paging Sandpit

    @Samfr

    Mark Francois the first Tory to officially win in Rayleigh and Wickford.
  • wooliedyed
    wooliedyed Posts: 12,808
    Stroud swing more in line with 130 odd Tory seats, we need some London seats etc to get a full picture here
  • Selebian
    Selebian Posts: 9,544
    Eabhal said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The Reform guy on ITV sounds exactly like Nigel Farage. Weird and interesting in equal measure.

    I noticed that too. A bit like the way Sturgeon moves her head in the same way that Salmond does.
    As long as the new cabinet don't start ducking their heads like pigeons every time they're attempting emphasis/sincerity like Starmer, we'll be ok
  • FeersumEnjineeya
    FeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,792
    Andy_JS said:

    Rayleigh & Wickford

    Con 17,756 (37.0% / -35.9%)
    Ref 12,135 (25.3% / +25.3%)
    Lab 11,823 (24.6% / +8.9%)
    LD 4,068 (8.5% / +0.8%)
    Grn 2,196 (4.6% / +0.9%)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001437

    8th safest Tory seat
  • Cicero
    Cicero Posts: 3,622
    Penny Mordaunt looking behind
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Farooq said:

    KentRising said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm enjoying C4. The interviews with reporters at different counts is feeling quite Eurovision.
    Good evening London, and here are the results from the Portsmouth jury...

    Tonight is Eurovision for ugly people.
    Rory Stewart is a beautiful man and I will fight you
    “Tell Jabba I’ve got his money”


    He looks increasingly like the love child of Mick Jagger and Edwina Currie.

    Doesn't mean he's not beautiful, Farooq! :kissing_heart:
    I think you'll find that, rather unfairly, it is external apperance that matters, and he looks like a papier-mache scarecrow with sixty teeth.

    To misquote David Cronenberg: we don't hold beauty contests for livers :)
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited July 2024
    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    After these particular 10 results I was expecting the following changes:

    Con -20.8%
    Lab +1.5%
    LD +2.2%
    Ref +15.5%
    Grn +1.9%

    The actual changes are:

    Con -19.8%
    Lab +0.5%
    LD +1.0%
    Ref +13.4%
    Grn +4.1%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results

    Well done Andy. What did your forecast lead to in seat counts?
    Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70, SNP 18, Grn 3, Ref 3.

    I almost posted those numbers at 6:45 yesterday morning but held off. Wish I had now.

    You can see those numbers at the bottom of this spreadsheet.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?gid=0#gid=0
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Con wipeout in Nuneaton - down 32% - from 60% to 28%.
  • FeersumEnjineeya
    FeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,792
    Scott_xP said:

    Paging Sandpit

    @Samfr

    Mark Francois the first Tory to officially win in Rayleigh and Wickford.

    Here's hoping Leon's tenner is the biggest loss of the night.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    londonpubman said:

    Hideous result for CON in Nuneaton

    And the LDs weren’t squeezed there, either
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    IanB2 said:

    When did Francois get let back in to the Tories?

    Was he out? You’re not thinking of Rosindell (charges dropped)?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    edited July 2024
    Darlington, Lab gain 16,600 to Tory 14,300, Reform 6,800
  • wooliedyed
    wooliedyed Posts: 12,808
    Darlington close!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sheet 2 is off the ground !
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Lab GAIN Darlington
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited July 2024
    Darlington

    Labour 16,621
    Cons 14,323
    Ref 6852
    Green 2847
    LD 1735

    Labour gain from Tories. Labour up just 0.3% though, Tories down 16%, Reform up 13%
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Darlo relatively close - was this your constituency Barty?
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    IanB2 said:

    Darlington, Lab gain 16,600 to Tory 14,300, Reform 6,800

    Reform have under-performed there, Tories held up?
  • Cicero
    Cicero Posts: 3,622
    Hunt going south
  • Selebian
    Selebian Posts: 9,544
    edited July 2024
    wooliedyed said:

    Darlington close!

    Mornington Crescent?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    wooliedyed said:

    Darlington close!

    Labour share is static
  • wooliedyed
    wooliedyed Posts: 12,808
    8% swing Darlington
  • Nunu5
    Nunu5 Posts: 988
    Basildon and Billericay is having a full recount! Suggest Richard Holden has a very close battle to 'hold' his new seat after fleeing to Essex from the North East.
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Loving the spreadsheets Andy. So far it`s mirroring the results amazingly well.
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    edited July 2024
    Ghedebrav said:

    IanB2 said:

    When did Francois get let back in to the Tories?

    Was he out? You’re not thinking of Rosindell (charges dropped)?
    No, although similar to Rosindell - Police investigation that did not result in charges. While ago, though.
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    IanB2 said:

    Darlington, Lab gain 16,600 to Tory 14,300, Reform 6,800

    Reform have under-performed there, Tories held up?
    Marginal seats, more riding on it, not a free hit.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,865
    Skidderton said:

    Why are the BBC so slow to get the results up for constituencies that have declared? Laura talking about "we'll get the full details to you soon", are they using a telex machine?

    always the way.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited July 2024
    Jarrow

    Lab 18856, Ref 9892, Con 3354, Grn 2384, LD 1740, ADF 502
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001307

    2019 figures (notional): Lab 19917, Con 9600, Brexit 3843, Ind 2662, LD 2649, Grn 1009, Ind 614, SDP 212
    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2291
  • wooliedyed
    wooliedyed Posts: 12,808
    Bishop Auckland could be very very close based on the Darlington result.......
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    edited July 2024
    Lab gain Stroud, 25,600 to 14,200, 71% turnout
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    SMukesh said:

    Loving the spreadsheets Andy. So far it`s mirroring the results amazingly well.

    Can we share the links again?
  • AlsoLei
    AlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    Monksfield said:

    There’s definitely a Labour ladies look of bobs and bangs

    Moonrabbit did some really good commentary on this - she called them "the Labour fringes".

    It's an interesting lens through which to view the current crop of top Labour politicians, as so many of them arrived in parliament at the same time (which goes some way towards explaining why they have such similar 2010-ish haircuts)

    Partly its a result of the bottlenecking in the front bench-worthy Labour intake during the Corbyn years. The 2024 intake is going to make the party look very different, and it's worth wondering how soon the newcomers will find their way into ministerial positions.
  • londonpubman
    londonpubman Posts: 3,665
    LAB did win Darlington and Nuneaton in 1992 when CON got an overall majority.
  • MightyAlex
    MightyAlex Posts: 1,789
    I just want to make it through the night without hearing Streeting. Fucker keeps popping up looking like a greased estate agent.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Labour gain Nuneaton
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806

    NEW THREAD

  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Labour hold Jarrow
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Jeremy Vine said Labour are doing well enough in each seat to win with wildly different swings, suggests their targeting operation has been very advanced indeed.
  • LostPassword
    LostPassword Posts: 19,679
    Really notable how the Labour vote is hardly shifting.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    HYUFD said:

    Darlington

    Labour 16,621
    Cons 14,323
    Ref 6852
    Green 2847
    LD 1735

    Labour gain from Tories. Labour up just 0.3% though, Tories down 16%, Reform up 13%

    Extraordinary if Labour do win their landslide having gained just a few %-age points in national vote share!
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    IanB2 said:

    Darlington, Lab gain 16,600 to Tory 14,300, Reform 6,800

    Reform have under-performed there, Tories held up?
    Local-ish lad, the Tory; maybe a reasonable personal vote?
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Nuneaton -> Lab gain

    Lab 15216
    Con 11737
    Ref 9059
    Grn 2894
    LD 1340
    WPB 967
  • FeersumEnjineeya
    FeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,792
    Oooh, Stroud.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077

    New Thread

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