The exit poll brings bad news for the MRPs and the SNP – politicalbetting.com

I hope you all bet on Baso when I told you!

Ratters said:

The exit poll is pretty similar to the 2001 result

- Labour 410 vs 419
- Tories 131 vs 166
- Lib Dems 53 vs 52

I wouldn't be surprised if we actually finished very close to that tomorrow morning. From there it's 1.5 electoral cycles to get back into the lead for the Tories which is about enough time for them to figure out they need to become the party of work and hammer Labour on the worklessness problem that's only going to grow in the next few years.

Reform in double figures would be interesting, Nigel Farage having to appoint a front bench, and that vetting company hoping they wielded out most of the undesirables

TimS said:

This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.

And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.

So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.

I may even have won my mini bet with @Leon

Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.

There are still lots of comfortably off pensioners in this country who can easily be swayed back into the tory camp.

bigjohnowls said:

DougSeal said:

bigjohnowls said:

Kerching Lab implied vote share about 38% according to ITV

Four figure winning night for me if they get less than 12,877,000 votes

Which was of course slightly less than TMay got in 2017. Which is all that matters.

Not for my 4 figure win it's not. The fact they fell well short of 12.877m is all that matters for that.

SKS looks like being circa 1 million votes short of Jezza 2017. How unpopular must he be

SKS fans please explain how that could possibly be right.

I will. SKS is more popular than Corbyn. There, I’ve said it. He’s going to be PM. You never mention 2019 do you. You know, the one when your man handed us Boris Fucking Johnson on a plate. You only mention the 2017 performance - where he still lost. SKS has saved the Labour Party from the ruin that
that arsehole led it into.

Corbyn was a failure. He lost 2 GEs - the second by a record amount. No one could carry on after that. SKS was then democratically elected leader of the Labour Party and (it appears) has now been democratically elected Prime Minister. On the first attempt. So he’s more successful than Corbyn on every metric.

Vine on Beeb: almost all the Tory marginals projected to go, except in Scotland.

malcolmg said:

turbotubbs said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just look at her face when the exit poll came out.

Karma.

Is the election not now a referendum on Scottish independence?

We cannot be kept prisoners forever, Independence is only a matter of time. The SNP do not equal Independence as they have proven.

The Scottish electorate is so volatile there is always hope for independence. Give it 5 years and you might have every seat going to the SNP again.

Bassetlaw is TCTC apparently

If Jo (Lab) snaffles it it's probably thanks to Brendan (Con and predicted 3rd) holding back some Reform voters. My guess is he'll run in 2029 for Reform and win here

bigjohnowls said:

Andy_JS said:

Sceptical about:

1. Tories on 12 seats in Scotland
2. Reform on 13 seats

Everything else looks very plausible.

I will be disappointed if Greens only get 2 was hoping for 4

3 or 4 is very possible.

malcolmg said:

turbotubbs said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just look at her face when the exit poll came out.

Karma.

Is the election not now a referendum on Scottish independence?

We cannot be kept prisoners forever, Independence is only a matter of time. The SNP do not equal Independence as they have proven.

You may feel you are a prisoner but not enough of your countrymen agree.

IanB2 said:

TimS said:

This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.

And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.

So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.

I may even have won my mini bet with @Leon

Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.

More likely it’s a modelling miss, rather than a polling miss.

Question remains, whether the miss is more the MRPs, or actually the exit poll? The exit poll only spoke to 20,000-odd voters, and in way way far fewer locations than the MRPs.

We have to allow for the exit poll being off by 20 to 30 seats.

Tewkesbury looks a Tory hold

pigeon said:

Vine on Beeb: almost all the Tory marginals projected to go, except in Scotland.

What an arse. What's his definition of a marginal? Anything under 15k?

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

TimS said:

This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.

And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.

So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.

I may even have won my mini bet with @Leon

Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.

I am struggling to understand this analysis.

Labour reverted back in the campaign to where they started, around 40%?

We will see.

That’s not true.

Reform take Basstlelaw

Youse lot all waiting on Blyth and Ashington.
The English Riviera.
Wor all just chilling.
Not dark yet here. But it's getting there.

Pulpstar said:

Cheltenham 99+% LD, Wolv West 99% + Labour but those were heavily odds on.

Barnsley South
likely Reform UK gain - 98% likelyhood
possible Lab hold2%

Pleased about this one, on for £15 at 8-1.

Well done.

bookies suggesting turnout over 65% ! Reform voters I suspect coming out to vote like the euro ref . Would back up the 13 seats , maybe more!

Tory wipeout in London??

Tory statement shockingly ungracious.
Typical.

YOU CAN FIND HOW EACH SEAT WILL GO ACCORDING TO THE EXIT POLL HERE

https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-what-is-the-forecast-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180

Reform 13 seats but only 2 Great Yarmouth and Bassetlaw on Vine's list. Does that mean there are some gains from Lab?

DavidL said:

God I miss George Osborne.

He's on ITV

PedestrianRock said:

I think Farage leading the Tories might still happen.

13 Reform seats will give him a presence.

It will be very tempting for some to look at the Tory vote share, and Reform on circa 20%, and think "if you add them together, you beat Labour."

Farage might not be the *next* Tory leader but he might yet become one.

Reverse takeover is theoretically possible but the Tory rump will be the southern "One Nation" Lib Dem-types who won't have him in the party.

wooliedyed said:

Tory wipeout in London??

No there is a much smaller swing in London, which means it must be bigger elsewhere...

Bad news for Rochdale.

Interesting listening to the seat by seat analysis. Looking at this the seats that are the probable target of the labour party planning reforms have been lost from the tories to the lib dems.

DavidL said:

pigeon said:

Vine on Beeb: almost all the Tory marginals projected to go, except in Scotland.

What an arse. What's his definition of a marginal? Anything under 15k?

To be fair he was going through the Tory seats from most to least vulnerable in blocks of 50. I was describing in real time and elected not to write an essay.

Almost all the first 150 are projected to go, except the Scottish seats which are all held, presumably because of Unionist consolidation and the rollback of the SNP.

Did the LDs even campaign in Finchley? Can't see it myself.

"Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
@LeftieStats

🗳️ Change in Labour vote share by region [EXIT POLL]

🔴 Scotland +18%
🔴 Midlands +4%
🔴 North +3%
🔴 South +2%
🔴 London -2%
🔴 Wales -2%

Via
@IpsosUK"

https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1808973317493113113

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

turbotubbs said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

TimS said:

This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.

And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.

So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.

I may even have won my mini bet with @Leon

Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.

I am struggling to understand this analysis.

Labour reverted back in the campaign to where they started, around 40%?

We will see.

That’s not true.

You say it's not true but have you discounted those polls that changed their methodology half way through?

No, just looking at the poll tracker. Started the campaign around 43, look to have ended at 37-38.

Interesting that Con are doing quite well in Scotland. That's a big difference to 1997 when they were totally wiped out?

Anyone know why that would be?

David Lammy expects to be Foreign Secretary

CarlottaVance said:

Scotland exit poll:




In a "chuck the buggers out" election, in Scotland the SNP were the buggers....

Lol, looks like I've messed up my Scotland betting.

That said, one of the big stories of the election - if the exit polls verify - is the OVER-performance of Reform

They aren't "down at 8%". they are much closer to 18%. So a lot of Reform-sceptics are looking quite foolish

Jonathan said:

I thought Ed Davey had the best campaign. Labour’s campaign in the media was poor in my opinion. On the ground obviously quite impressive. .

I’d agree. Those stunts were the right thing to do in the circumstances

dixiedean said:

Youse lot all waiting on Blyth and Ashington.
The English Riviera.
Wor all just chilling.
Not dark yet here. But it's getting there.

When's the Ashington train line opening?

.

Andy_JS said:

"Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
@LeftieStats

🗳️ Change in Labour vote share by region [EXIT POLL]

🔴 Scotland +18%
🔴 Midlands +4%
🔴 North +3%
🔴 South +2%
🔴 London -2%
🔴 Wales -2%

Via
@IpsosUK"

https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1808973317493113113

So, a bit shit, really?

Exit poll predicting Hartlepool as a 91% chance for Reform.

Some people should have listened to me!

I hope you all have a good night, everyone. I'll be popping in as & when I wake up throughout the night. May all your bets be successful.

CarlottaVance said:

Scotland exit poll:




In a "chuck the buggers out" election, in Scotland the SNP were the buggers....

Aberdeen South would be something.

Rochdale Labour

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jonathan said:

I thought Ed Davey had the best campaign. Labour’s campaign in the media was poor in my opinion. On the ground obviously quite impressive. .

I thought Labour campaign in the media was fine. It was very disciplined and they weren't trying to sell some grand vision like 1997. It was be disciplined, don't say stupid shit, sound reasonable. And they kept the people most likely to drop a clanger well away from the media.

Very disciplined, but could have risked a bit of excitement. Just a tad. Too apologetic imo.

Its the Gareth Southgate approach to management, but actually winning.

Now the difficult bit. My concern with Labour this time around, I don't think the wider team is very strong once you get past Reeves, Streeting, etc. 1997 there were plenty of people who even if you disagree with politically, you could see they could do a job.

IanB2 said:

carnforth said:

Richmond predicted Tory hold.

Decent odds still available

Sadly for us peasants who only use ordinary bookmakers, Ladbrokes have closed the constituency markets. I put a few quid on Reform under 11.5 at evens.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Exit poll says Rochdale is likely 99% Lab hold which means Galloway loses.

Good.

Leon said:

That said, one of the big stories of the election - if the exit polls verify - is the OVER-performance of Reform

They aren't "down at 8%". they are much closer to 18%. So a lot of Reform-sceptics are looking quite foolish

I was one of them. Woops!

another_richard said:

darkage said:

I think that by calling the early election Sunak has actually saved the conservative party. Things were not going to get any better for them had it been put off for another 6 months.

It would merely have given more time for Conservative MPs to disgrace themselves and for the country to get even more annoyed with them.

Ah but not being a football fan, Sunak failed to recognise the reflected glory the Tory Gov't would surely have received by dint of England winning Euro 2024.

Leon said:

TimS said:

This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.

And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.

So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.

I may even have won my mini bet with @Leon

Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.

Yes, our bet is going to be very close

Turns out that normalcy bias is called that for a reason. As per our discussion recently, yes a Lab win but a "normal" Lab win.