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What’s new pussy cat? – politicalbetting.com
What’s new pussy cat? – politicalbetting.com
It's a @Number10cat landslide. New @IpsosUK data shows 44% favourable towards the Downing Street Don – ratings that a politician would surely find purr-fect.https://t.co/T1oX6ccCDk pic.twitter.com/RJ8VeePkuh
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Trombones.
@rcolvile
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1h
As a Tory, I'm approaching tonight in the same spirit as watching 'Titanic'. You know what's going to happen, the drama is seeing who survives.
https://x.com/rcolvile/status/1808917566095503389
@oflynnsocial
·
2h
Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
Take yer pick!
https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830
I think it is likely to be c) but could be a)
Too many times in my life etc etc...
Disclaimer, I voted Tory not Reform so not ramping!
The 1962 Orpington by-election win came out of the blue and was a small earthquake that set in train the long slow recovery, leading eventually to the opportunity and turmoil of the Labour split and the Alliance years. They were lucky in Grimond, Thorpe and Steel to have a series of dynamic capable leaders, despite the tiny size of the parliamentary party, each in their different way well suited to the emerging media age. Grimond laid the intellectual foundation for the recovery, making the party relevant for the times, and drawing into the party a lot of people who later became prominent, internally or externally. Thorpe was an excellent publicist who brought the party to wider attention (eventually in ways rather less helpful), and Steel was a solid leader with a good media persona and the judgement to lay the foundations for the eventual merger that became the LibDems.
At best the Tories get a 1997 style result.
At worst it is 1931 in reverse.
Anatomy of how the Tory campaign imploded from
@oliver_wright
* From the off the campaign has been riven by divisions and beset by avoidable mistakes
* Claims of splits between No 10 team and wider campaign. 'Them and us has really been a problem'
* Splits from the off - Dowden and other Sunak allies said to have pushed for early election, Isaac Levido opposed. Dowden has denied pushing to go early
* 'We did an amazing job at keeping the timing of the election secret - but then we didn't capitalise on it because CCHQ were not prepared'
* Claims CCHQ was 'chaotic' with candidate selections all over the place
* Sheer volume of unforced errors - Sunak announcing election in rain, visit to Titanic, assumption Farage would not stand, D-Day fisaco...
* Biggest miscalculation was Farage. 'We tried to ignore Reform for far too long,' senior party source says
* Supermajority strategy born of desperation rather than design - hope had been polls would narrow. When they didn't the campaign broke glass
* Tories comprehensively outgunned on spending - Labour built up huge warchest during short campaign
* Tory ground operation denuded, while many senior figures from past did not take part
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1808934657825910801
I had a flutter on 70%+ turnover this morning as I felt 25-1 was decent value. It was 67.3% last time and 68.8% the time before, so it might happen. Is it likely? Not terribly. Rumours about turnout just start circulating at this sort of time and people get over-excited. It'll be thereabouts, and it's of marginal relevance.
The other rule is that it is only one photo per post.
Whoa, whoa
I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
Her revision pack front page had one of those 'Keep Calm and Carry On' spoofs on it.
It read, 'Contrary to previous instructions, now is the time to panic.'
And yet, here we are, just over 2 hours before the exit poll and we are all @Heatheners now.
My request was "All the cider".
They need the polls to be well out, in their favour, just to get to epic loss!
A July election made no sense at the start and still makes no sense now. 🤷♂️
ETA great photo
Sympathies! I have never felt that invested in any vote.... apart from Sindyref. That is one vote where I did feel sick to the stomach for several days beforehand. It was like having a nasty potential cancer diagnosis hanging over you. The idea my beloved if often fucked up country might break in two...... UGH
And the evening of the vote was beyond tense, it was horrible, until the exit poll, where the relief was quasi-orgasmic. The next day I felt free and wonderful
As @DavidL says: NEVER AGAIN
So treat anything like this with a pinch of salt.
But hey maybe I’m wrong and we’re seeing an EU ref style earthquake and even PeoplePolling will have undercooked Farage and he’ll pick up 100 seats and deny Labour a majority LOL. I doubt it though.
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
The 'borough'/ 'county' definition affects election expense limits but also has this additional feature
Maybe that made sense, I think most of the remaining Tory vote would prefer to be more like Reform, but after the Faragegasm all they had was to beg people not to do it.
https://x.com/Parody_PM/status/1808808033553646027
This morning we were discussing a low turnout helps the Tories, now we are saying a high turnout helps the Tories.
It could be a Brexit surge, it could be a Tory surge, but it could be more people than normal want to punish the incumbent.
TSE to host.
Hyufd doing the polls.
Nick Palmer doing the analysis.
RCS doing the tech.
Me doing the awesome puns.
My applause would go to the PBer who said "Hartlepool is Peak Tory, all downhill from here", was it @Foxy? Someone else?
Anyway they were bang on. Kudos
Much appreciated.
xx
So just make it official so they look better in a spreadsheet, and people can officially say it differently.
I was hoping to get closer to Europe but now that it involves waiting for Starmer to expire that seems a little mean spirited
*Is that my coat?
The other LBC is too crazy to countenance
I’m not convinced of an surge in voter numbers from anecdotal comments based on ‘someone said this’.
We shall see.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c725wr19lz1o
Frustratingly, I've been on a team away day all day so have missed the chat on one of the pb highlights of the year.
Anyway, on my way home now. May call in to vote on the way. Still thinking SDP.
On Casino's story: I felt bad before 2017, but wasn't worried about Corbyn being in power. But 2019 was the worst I've ever felt - and most relieved I've ever felt - in my life, about politics or anything else.
Not feeling like that now. Obviously Starmer will win. He's far from my cup of tea. But he's not a nutter.
Now reported as brisk after work.
Soooooo. Are all the Tories coming home at the last minute?
Or. This is the beat them to death election. The tactical vote monster has been unleashed. And in chunks of the country the fUKers are going for it.
I have asked my Teesside friends if they have been into any Stainsby Hill (Thornaby) polling stations to see what turnout is like. We knew the 2019 election was a Borisgasm by the mega turnout in these locations followed by sampling those boxes and seeing Tory Tory Tory.
If there is high turnout again its RefUK RefUK RefUK
The Conservatives' problem is they'd had a long spell in office anyway, and then shat the bed quite badly over four and a half chaotic final years. Sunak was always pretty poor at politics and not anywhere near capable of turning it round. The date is essentially immaterial.
A fool and their money are easily parted.