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If Peter Kellner is right then the back the Tories at 9s to win 150-199 seats – politicalbetting.com
If Peter Kellner is right then the back the Tories at 9s to win 150-199 seats – politicalbetting.com
Peter Kellner’s predictions in Sunday Times https://t.co/s5cAQ6qeUc pic.twitter.com/vc8Tx5ZEtM
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Here's the Peter Kellner article referred to: https://archive.ph/FIWRk
I am really cautious about trusting the MRPs. It seems that every man and his dog is having a go this time, following YouGov's pioneering work earlier. It is possible they are all a collective delusion and the constituency-level effects will be nothing like what is, basically, educated guesswork.
In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’
St Ives
North Cornwall
North Devon
South Devon
Torbay
Yeovil
Taunton & Wellington
Wells & Mendip Hills
West Dorset
Mid Dorset & North Poole
South Cotswolds
North Cotswolds
Good guess. Yes could be.
Have you been here? It’s tremendously pretty. I’m going to pitch a gazette travel piece on “forgotten Brittany” as there seem to be quite a few towns like this, lovely but lost in the Breton countryside.
I probably won’t mention the kids jacking up skag and the streets which were faintly menacing even on a Sunday afternoon
Betfair have them clear favorite now for Torbay.
I reckon that’s brilliant value and if I lose because they poll under 100 seats then part of me will still be smiling. If they poll 200+ seats then just about everyone is wrong.
And do Guingamp and landarneau if you can
If you keep moving in the braking zone, sooner or later you're going have an accident. Dickhead just cost Norris a win🤬
https://x.com/MattSingh_/status/1807420214293737728
Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.
I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.
150 Conservative seats puts it in Ribble Valley, Lowestoft, Gillingham.
200 Conservative seats puts it in Tunbridge Wells, Thurrock and Banbury.
As others have said... Romford doesn't feel like the front line in a general election.
https://x.com/coldwarsteve/status/1807350713481068941
One thing worth noting is that low turnout tends to favour the Conservatives due to the differential turnout effect, which is to say that Conservative voters tend to be more motivated and consistent than Labour voters, perhaps due to their older demographic. Plenty of studies on this, blog posts and the like.
If we assume this a low turnout election, based on the current favourite band of 62.5-64.99% (with the 60.62.49 band being second favourite) then the Conservatives may well outperform polling expectations, providing justification for this being a value bet.
Londonderry has a Belfast (BT) postcode. It is NEVER NEVER NEVER in Belfast.
There's a reason why Eton is called Slough comprehensive.
By midday, it was 26% - the highest in more than 40 years.
https://x.com/mathieugallard/status/1807353872031117578
What's going to happen if they win, say, 6 seats - a monumental achievement in its own right but not enough to influence anything in particular? Will Farage really buckle down?
So Kellner is suggesting that all 12 are over-estimating Labour, and all but one are under-estimating the Tories, in most cases significantly so. I'm not betting on that.
But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).
Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.
Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.
That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.
I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
NEW - Reform candidate for Erewash disowns the party over racism allegations and endorses the local Tory candidate instead.
Similarly a big chunk of London had Sheffield postcodes but only a couple of streetsigns with red S's survive. One off clapham common.
https://www.reformparty.uk/erewash-constituency
"Biography:
I am a thirty-five-year-old pub manager from Derby, married with 3 children. Born and bred in the East Midlands, I have worked within the pub and hospitality sector all my life."
Eight factions.
NEW
Candidate Defection FROM Reform to Tories...
Reform candidate in Erewash Liam Booth-Isherwood says...
“Whilst I have campaigned alongside many decent, honest and hardworking people during the course of the General Election campaign in Erewash, the reports of widespread racism and sexism in Reform have made clear that there is a significant moral issue within certain elements of the party, and the failure of the Party’s leadership to not only take this matter seriously, but also to fundamentally address it, has made clear to me that this is no longer a party I want to be associated with.
“As a result, I am announcing my endorsement of the Conservative Party candidate, Maggie Throup, for Erewash. Only she can stop Labour.”
for anyone who missed it
There is no Bedford postcode, so that's fine.
If there are both Warwick and Coventry postcodes, and Warwick University has a Coventry one, then TSE's point stands.
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/
Also aggregated tactical voting:
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/tactical-voting/
Nowt wrong with Coventry like
Also, I far prefer the more considered forecast also in today's Sunday Times showing the following outcome:
LABOUR: 450 seats
🔵 CONSERVATIVE: 105 seats
🟠 LIB DEM: 55 seats
🟡 SNP: 15 seats
🟤 PLAID CYMRU: 3 seats
🟣 REFORM UK: 2 seats
🟢 GREEN: 1 seat
🟥 LABOUR majority of 250
This looks highly credible to me and I expect every party to be between +/- 5 seats of what they ultimately achieve and Labour's overall majority to be between +/- 10 seats either way of the above forecast, i.e. 240 - 260 seats.
At this stage, I'm struggling to identify any real value in the main fixed odds or spread betting markets and punters might fare better by restricting themselves to the speciality and/or single constituency opportunities where local knowledge can be all important.
There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.
I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
Londonderry does have a postcode issue. L is taken, so is D (the Unionists could have been awkward and insisted that D is freen because Splitters Central is over the border. But D is also problematic for them.
Odd that Belfast wasn't BF. Given that all the Bedford(shire) postcodes are MK4x and all the Milton Keynes postcodes are MK1x, I wonder if it was a late decision.
Are you paying attention, Erewash?
Suspect he’ll be revising that view.
Interesting area: used to be a marginal Lib Dem / Tory seat and has flipped multiple times, but since 2015 has had large Tory majorities and is a “safe” seat. The environs should be conducive to the Tories: outer London, affected by the ULEZ extension, a lot of self employed, similar in feel to places like Bexley and Sidcup that are rock solid Conservative.
I found quite a few Lib Dems and a number of tactical voters who would usually be Labour. 2 avowedly Tory households. Others who didn’t want to answer (I routinely record them as “not Lib Dem” or Conservative leaning). Nobody said they were voting Reform, but then they might well not say so to a Lib Dem canvasser.
I would say it’s 50:50 there, at least in the wards we canvassed. Certainly no sense of complete Tory collapse. By contrast next door Carshalton looks fairly comfortable for Bobby Dean.
Anyway, I’m sure 160k people at Silverstone next Sunday might also help pass the message…
Their "Derbyshire Well Dressing" is due on July 6, 2 days after the Election, but seems to have been cancelled.
You will have been to the Grindleford Rocks as a lad, then.
These are constituency elections. If people are turning out who don't normally vote, then it shouldn't be assumed they are voting for the Party who usually wins.
And if they are it makes bugger all difference to the results anyways.
Sack the lot of them and just have big Ange explain the game.
opportunity to lob a bottle of piss at Max Verstappenfun.See hiring of Wayne Rooney...I mean come on man, nobody really believes he is a tactical genius. Great player, it is showing he is a clueless manager and piss poor communicator.