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If Peter Kellner is right then the back the Tories at 9s to win 150-199 seats – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212

    Can we please reverse this ever increasing amount of pundits before a game all talking brain rot.

    Sack the lot of them and just have big Ange explain the game.

    Is this for politics or some other sport?

    Come to think of it - applies to all of them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    rcs1000 said:

    The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.

    Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.

    I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.

    Bedford Has a Milton Keynes Postcode (MK) it is not in Milton Keynes.

    Londonderry has a Belfast (BT) postcode. It is NEVER NEVER NEVER in Belfast.

    Hang on.

    There is no Bedford postcode, so that's fine.

    If there are both Warwick and Coventry postcodes, and Warwick University has a Coventry one, then TSE's point stands.
    So far as Warwick is concerned it is the "same" as Bedford. CV Postcode. WR is Worcester.

    Londonderry does have a postcode issue. L is taken, so is D (the Unionists could have been awkward and insisted that D is freen because Splitters Central is over the border. But D is also problematic for them.

    Odd that Belfast wasn't BF. Given that all the Bedford(shire) postcodes are MK4x and all the Milton Keynes postcodes are MK1x, I wonder if it was a late decision.
    Belfast wasn't postcoded until 1970, by which time BF had been assigned to British Forces.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    Andy_JS said:

    Does Peter Kellner have a good prediction track record?

    Like most us, he's had some good ones and some bad ones, but mostly good ones.
    I recall he's had some stinkers.
    His biggest mistake IIRC was claiming that Remain would definitely win the referendum shortly after the polling stations closed.
    I remember Bob Worcester confidently forecasting Al Gore to win the presidency after an early state declaration. Mind, he was almost right.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,772
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.

    Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.

    I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.

    Excellent header, @TSE ,and I'm on it from this morning. Thank-you.

    But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).

    Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.

    Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.

    That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.

    I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
    The S postcode also covers Nottinghamshire.

    There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.

    I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
    As against all this, the point was the university is in CV4. The number matters because the rule is to number outwards from the city centre. I would expect CV4 to be part of Coventry, CV34 not so much
    Fun fact, in Manchester, M60 is located next to M1.
    The M60 has junctions to the M1 (postcode) ....
    What, and what?

    1) There are definitely no junctions of the M60 which lead onto the M1.
    2) Where is the M60 postcode? Is it one of thise specialist ones like M90 for the airport? I can't find it on a map.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619

    Can we please reverse this ever increasing amount of pundits before a game all talking brain rot.

    Sack the lot of them and just have big Ange explain the game.

    Biggest regret about the Euros is that Klopp turned down ITV.
    We really need a clear out / change of thinking, the same way as they have with the cricket. Far less on well you were a really famous player 25+ years ago, much more you are a current top level coach or recently player known for tactical awareness. Sky binned Botham, Holding, Gower, all amazing players, but bugger all clue about modern cricket. Roy Keane doesn't even know the rules.
    Yeah, it's frustrating, because I go corporate hospitality occasionally I got an audience with Klopp and he said so much about analysis and preparation.

    His analyst team at Liverpool was larger than the coaching team all levels combined at Dortmund.

    The scouting team was similarly large, when they signed somebody they had hundreds of hours of footage and stats on pretty much on every player in professional football in Europe and South America, they have terabytes of info.

    The cricket team have analysts that have so much analysis on their opponents, so it is no accident when x bowler bowls against y batsman or they rejig their batting order when z bowler is bowling.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Peter Kellner have a good prediction track record?

    Like most us, he's had some good ones and some bad ones, but mostly good ones.
    I recall he's had some stinkers.
    His biggest mistake IIRC was claiming that Remain would definitely win the referendum shortly after the polling stations closed.
    I remember Bob Worcester confidently forecasting Al Gore to win the presidency after an early state declaration. Mind, he was almost right.
    The only way to avoid mistakes is by never saying or doing anything, which is the greatest mistake of all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    edited June 30
    I am surprised Kate Abdo wasn't hired as a presenter (maybe she her US contract doesn't allow it?). Great presenter and also multi-lingual in a number of European languages.

    If you ever get to see her do the Champion League on CBS Sports, it is great when she is able to both listen / live translate the interviews of many players in their local language, but also if required speak to them.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited June 30
    Now for football. Slovakia to win are about the same odds as Tories to get over 150 seats.
    I'm slightly more tempted by the former.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.

    Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.

    I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.

    Excellent header, @TSE ,and I'm on it from this morning. Thank-you.

    But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).

    Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.

    Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.

    That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.

    I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
    The S postcode also covers Nottinghamshire.

    There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.

    I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
    As against all this, the point was the university is in CV4. The number matters because the rule is to number outwards from the city centre. I would expect CV4 to be part of Coventry, CV34 not so much
    Fun fact, in Manchester, M60 is located next to M1.
    The M60 has junctions to the M1 (postcode) ....
    What, and what?

    1) There are definitely no junctions of the M60 which lead onto the M1.
    2) Where is the M60 postcode? Is it one of thise specialist ones like M90 for the airport? I can't find it on a map.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M_postcode_area
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    Either way this is the last tournament match for England to take place under a Tory PM until...?
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Andy_JS said:

    Kellner is slightly underestimating the Reform share imo.

    Yes I think so. He has a pro EU bias
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    edited June 30

    Can we please reverse this ever increasing amount of pundits before a game all talking brain rot.

    Sack the lot of them and just have big Ange explain the game.

    Biggest regret about the Euros is that Klopp turned down ITV.
    We really need a clear out / change of thinking, the same way as they have with the cricket. Far less on well you were a really famous player 25+ years ago, much more you are a current top level coach or recently player known for tactical awareness. Sky binned Botham, Holding, Gower, all amazing players, but bugger all clue about modern cricket. Roy Keane doesn't even know the rules.
    Yeah, it's frustrating, because I go corporate hospitality occasionally I got an audience with Klopp and he said so much about analysis and preparation.

    His analyst team at Liverpool was larger than the coaching team all levels combined at Dortmund.

    The scouting team was similarly large, when they signed somebody they had hundreds of hours of footage and stats on pretty much on every player in professional football in Europe and South America, they have terabytes of info.

    The cricket team have analysts that have so much analysis on their opponents, so it is no accident when x bowler bowls against y batsman or they rejig their batting order when z bowler is bowling.
    All current premier league managers that last any length of time have advanced tactical knowledge, even somebody like Sean Dyche who people naively pin as just some longer ball specialist. I have seen Dyche talk at length about range of things from tactics to psychology to man management and it is super interesting. Have bumped into him in real life as well and top bloke.

    An interesting piece BBC / ITV could do is get the bloke behind Statsbomb on. They provide huge amounts of data and tactical insights to pretty much all the top domestic and international teams now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    England playing on ITV, should we be worried?

    No, because why would you worry about football ?
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Can see the argument that it may be value but I think people are guilty of thinking "X elections before have all had shy tories return to the Tories on the day - therefore they will do so again in 2024". This will have been greatly considered by the models already.

    But what may not have been accounted for is the scale of tactical voting we are about to see - and it's coming from Labour + Lib Dem voters, not Tory / Reform voters.

    Am going LAB 465 LD 70 CON 65 REF 6 GREEN 3 SNP 18 - and a huge number of arguments about Proportional Representation to rage on from July 5th onwards...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,772
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ChloeKeedyITV

    In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’

    St Ives
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    South Devon
    Torbay
    Yeovil
    Taunton & Wellington
    Wells & Mendip Hills
    West Dorset
    Mid Dorset & North Poole
    South Cotswolds
    North Cotswolds

    The Cotswolds aren't in the West Country. Unless your definition of West Country starts at Heathrow Airport.
    That far West? Doesn’t it start at Hogarth Roundabout, or is it Hammersmith Flyover?
    I've never thought it controversial to include Gloucestershire in the West Country?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Peter Kellner have a good prediction track record?

    Like most us, he's had some good ones and some bad ones, but mostly good ones.
    I recall he's had some stinkers.
    His biggest mistake IIRC was claiming that Remain would definitely win the referendum shortly after the polling stations closed.
    I remember Bob Worcester confidently forecasting Al Gore to win the presidency after an early state declaration. Mind, he was almost right.
    If Al Gore had had better lawyers or a slightly smarter political strategy he almost certainly would have done.

    A Florida wide hand recount and in all likelihood he was home and hosed.

    As it was, his attorneys made my opponents look sane and his tactics made Sunak's look impressive.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited June 30
    Farooq said:

    Now for football. Slovakia to win are about the same odds as Tories to get over 150 seats.
    I'm slightly more tempted by the former.

    Don't be silly. Everyone knows England will lose on penalties. That will be settled as a draw with the bookies.
    14/1 - England to lose on penalties.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Come on England.

    Just imagine the other team are all Tory MPs…
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,982

    England playing on ITV, should we be worried?

    Are England "coming home" tonight?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 30

    Either way this is the last tournament match for England to take place under a Tory PM until...?

    2040

    And that’s only if they don’t tear themselves apart
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633

    Either way this is the last tournament match for England to take place under a Tory PM until...?

    Oceania 68
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    Either way this is the last tournament match for England to take place under a Tory PM until...?

    Historic moment.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    In the unlikely event that Kellner's prediction is proved broadly correct and that Labour's majority is half or less than was previously considered likely, this will inevitably have a profound effect on how Starmer must plan to govern and plan Government business. Not so much for the here and now, but more having regard as to how he will ensure re-election in 5 years time which suddenly becomes far less certain, especially if the LibDems continue to prosper, whereby they might control the balance of power.
    Also Starmer could find it difficult to control a very large number of newly elected, inexperienced and possibly bored back-benchers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited June 30
    The Sunday Times has endorsed Labour, the first big national to switch from backing the Tories since 2019 and crucially for Starmer is owned by Murdoch

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/the-times-view/article/the-tories-have-forfeited-the-right-to-govern-over-to-labour-67cccqf5v
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    Either way this is the last tournament match for England to take place under a Tory PM until...?

    2064.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ChloeKeedyITV

    In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’

    St Ives
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    South Devon
    Torbay
    Yeovil
    Taunton & Wellington
    Wells & Mendip Hills
    West Dorset
    Mid Dorset & North Poole
    South Cotswolds
    North Cotswolds

    The Cotswolds aren't in the West Country. Unless your definition of West Country starts at Heathrow Airport.
    That far West? Doesn’t it start at Hogarth Roundabout, or is it Hammersmith Flyover?
    I've never thought it controversial to include Gloucestershire in the West Country?
    Forest, Gloucester and Tewkesbury tend to think of themselves as Midlands. Once you get to about Stroud and more clearly into the orbit of Bristol the feeling changes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,592

    Can we please reverse this ever increasing amount of pundits before a game all talking brain rot.

    Sack the lot of them and just have big Ange explain the game.

    Isn't Big Ange busy campaigning?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    Either way this is the last tournament match for England to take place under a Tory PM until...?

    ...next Saturday? 😈
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    HYUFD said:

    The Sunday Times has endorsed Labour, the first big national to switch from backing the Tories since 2019 and crucially for Starmer is owned by Murdoch

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/the-times-view/article/the-tories-have-forfeited-the-right-to-govern-over-to-labour-67cccqf5v

    Currant Bun tomorrow?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968

    Can we please reverse this ever increasing amount of pundits before a game all talking brain rot.

    Sack the lot of them and just have big Ange explain the game.

    Isn't Big Ange busy campaigning?
    Even she would be better than Wayne Rooney.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    I think Kellner is broadly in the right ball park but unless the Tories can squeeze Reform a bit more next week to get to 25%+ I am still expecting 100-150 Tory seats
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548

    Either way this is the last tournament match for England to take place under a Tory PM until...?

    ...a bunch of disillusioned Labour MPs accuse Starmer of being a Tory.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Now for football. Slovakia to win are about the same odds as Tories to get over 150 seats.
    I'm slightly more tempted by the former.

    If Slovakia get over 150 seats and the Tories have won the Euros then something has gone wrong somewhere though.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    If England won the Euros in the early days of a Starmer Government, that would really take the Genie / Magic Lamp theory to another level...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    Scott_xP said:

    @NatashaC
    NEW

    Candidate Defection FROM Reform to Tories...

    Reform candidate in Erewash Liam Booth-Isherwood says...

    “Whilst I have campaigned alongside many decent, honest and hardworking people during the course of the General Election campaign in Erewash, the reports of widespread racism and sexism in Reform have made clear that there is a significant moral issue within certain elements of the party, and the failure of the Party’s leadership to not only take this matter seriously, but also to fundamentally address it, has made clear to me that this is no longer a party I want to be associated with.

    “As a result, I am announcing my endorsement of the Conservative Party candidate, Maggie Throup, for Erewash. Only she can stop Labour.”

    Bit slow on the uptake, but good for him.

    The best reform story is still the one where they dissociated themselves from three candidates for racism, but told voters to vote for them anyway as a vote for RefUK.
    Pretty well sums them up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    "Man, I feel like a woman...."

    Well treat yourself to one then luv.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956

    Can we please reverse this ever increasing amount of pundits before a game all talking brain rot.

    Sack the lot of them and just have big Ange explain the game.

    Biggest regret about the Euros is that Klopp turned down ITV.
    We really need a clear out / change of thinking, the same way as they have with the cricket. Far less on well you were a really famous player 25+ years ago, much more you are a current top level coach or recently retired player known for tactical awareness. Sky binned Botham, Holding, Gower, all legends of the game, but bugger all clue about modern cricket. Their suggestion was normally well bowl faster, bowl a load of bouncers, that what I would have done....yes but you can't more than one per over now in certain games. It like Roy Keane, doesn't even know the rules.

    See hiring of Wayne Rooney...I mean come on man, nobody really believes he is a tactical genius. Great player, it is showing he is a clueless manager and piss poor communicator.
    Perhaps Klopp will make a guest appearance in the final, particularly if Germany and/or England are taking part!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited June 30
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Peter Kellner have a good prediction track record?

    Like most us, he's had some good ones and some bad ones, but mostly good ones.
    I recall he's had some stinkers.
    His biggest mistake IIRC was claiming that Remain would definitely win the referendum shortly after the polling stations closed.
    I remember Bob Worcester confidently forecasting Al Gore to win the presidency after an early state declaration. Mind, he was almost right.
    If Al Gore had had better lawyers or a slightly smarter political strategy he almost certainly would have done.

    A Florida wide hand recount and in all likelihood he was home and hosed.

    As it was, his attorneys made my opponents look sane and his tactics made Sunak's look impressive.
    Mind you Bush did well to get it even that close, let alone to win.

    The economy was good, outgoing President Clinton had above average approval ratings, the experts all expected Gore to win as did Worcester. Bush changed his party with a 'compassionate conservative message' and with Karl Rove greatly improved evangelical turnout which by 2004 was enough for him to win comfortably in a post 2001 era where national security was key
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    Should Trump run for president?

    No 54%
    Yes 46%

    CBS (YouGov) A - 1,130 RV - 6/28



    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1807442984725594557
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    People on here who think you can go "Labour + Lib Dem + Green" or "Cons + Reform" in vote share totals, ignore the fact that many Lib Dems and Greens would never vote Labour, but in particular - that many Reform voters actually prefer Starmer / Labour to Sunak / the Tories. I think there's been decent pollster evidence of the latter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    #New Debate Poll - Who told the truth?

    🔵 Biden 40%
    🔴 Trump 32%


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1807411105536332253
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874

    Should Trump run for president?

    No 54%
    Yes 46%

    CBS (YouGov) A - 1,130 RV - 6/28



    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1807442984725594557

    So basically US voters don't think either party nominee should be running, vote for a convicted felon or a doddery grandpa!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    Piss-poor from England.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    HYUFD said:

    I think Kellner is broadly in the right ball park but unless the Tories can squeeze Reform a bit more next week to get to 25%+ I am still expecting 100-150 Tory seats

    Seems reasonable. 150 to 200 not impossible though
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,129

    Scott_xP said:

    @NatashaC
    NEW

    Candidate Defection FROM Reform to Tories...

    Reform candidate in Erewash Liam Booth-Isherwood says...

    “Whilst I have campaigned alongside many decent, honest and hardworking people during the course of the General Election campaign in Erewash, the reports of widespread racism and sexism in Reform have made clear that there is a significant moral issue within certain elements of the party, and the failure of the Party’s leadership to not only take this matter seriously, but also to fundamentally address it, has made clear to me that this is no longer a party I want to be associated with.

    “As a result, I am announcing my endorsement of the Conservative Party candidate, Maggie Throup, for Erewash. Only she can stop Labour.”

    It will be mildly interesting to see how many votes he/Reform will get, given that he'll still be on the ballot paper.
    Are you paying attention, Erewash?
    Are you suggesting the voters might need to wash their Eres out?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548

    Should Trump run for president?

    No 54%
    Yes 46%

    CBS (YouGov) A - 1,130 RV - 6/28



    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1807442984725594557

    What's the number for Biden?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,120
    edited June 30
    Ooof.

    Story about periodic price changes on District Heating Schemes getting out of phase with the spot market. The amounts of heat being used on average - 1700 kWh/month for gas for a 2 bed flat - look high in those numbers, but even so ...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmm2n3527m4o

    Residents of affordable housing developments in Edinburgh have said they are "living in a horror story" after being hit with a massive rise in their gas bill as costs are beginning to fall across the rest of the country.

    The Harvester's Way development has 180 properties which are all connected to a district heating system, where one huge gas boiler provides heating and hot water to all the homes.

    It is billed as a greener and more efficient way to heat their homes but it also means residents are unable to shop around for the best prices.

    Places For People Scotland, which operates about 1,000 homes across five sites in Edinburgh, has told residents the tariff for gas will jump 450% from 1 August, meaning people in a two-bedroom flat could be paying as much as £400 a month.

    It said the new heat tariff was procured at the end of last year and reflected the market conditions at the time.

    The unit price for gas can vary significantly and energy companies also impose standing charges, but the average UK unit price is currently just above 7p per kWh.

    The Harvester's Way residents were paying 4p/kWh but that is increasing to 22.18p/kWh.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    I tell you what, Slovakia v Switzerland will be one hell of a quarter-final.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited June 30

    HYUFD said:

    The Sunday Times has endorsed Labour, the first big national to switch from backing the Tories since 2019 and crucially for Starmer is owned by Murdoch

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/the-times-view/article/the-tories-have-forfeited-the-right-to-govern-over-to-labour-67cccqf5v

    Currant Bun tomorrow?
    Possibly, Murdoch is a ruthless old billionaire though for whom money and marketshare come first.

    I think he might hedge his bets, the Times seems to be moving to Starmer as he will be more popular with their middle class readership. The Sun might endorse Starmer with reservations but back Farage in Clacton and a few other seats as its readership is much more working class and pro Reform.

    Both sets of readers though want the Tories out of government now it seems, looks like the Tories just have the Telegraph and Mail behind them as they did in 1997 and 2001 with the Express perhaps going to endorse Reform
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    Oh FFS. We should have sent a team of Championship players.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ChloeKeedyITV

    In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’

    St Ives
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    South Devon
    Torbay
    Yeovil
    Taunton & Wellington
    Wells & Mendip Hills
    West Dorset
    Mid Dorset & North Poole
    South Cotswolds
    North Cotswolds

    The Cotswolds aren't in the West Country. Unless your definition of West Country starts at Heathrow Airport.
    That far West? Doesn’t it start at Hogarth Roundabout, or is it Hammersmith Flyover?
    I've never thought it controversial to include Gloucestershire in the West Country?
    It's in the South West statistical region but I don't think it's partly of the West Country, and neither is Wiltshire.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @NatashaC
    NEW

    Candidate Defection FROM Reform to Tories...

    Reform candidate in Erewash Liam Booth-Isherwood says...

    “Whilst I have campaigned alongside many decent, honest and hardworking people during the course of the General Election campaign in Erewash, the reports of widespread racism and sexism in Reform have made clear that there is a significant moral issue within certain elements of the party, and the failure of the Party’s leadership to not only take this matter seriously, but also to fundamentally address it, has made clear to me that this is no longer a party I want to be associated with.

    “As a result, I am announcing my endorsement of the Conservative Party candidate, Maggie Throup, for Erewash. Only she can stop Labour.”

    Bit slow on the uptake, but good for him.

    The best reform story is still the one where they dissociated themselves from three candidates for racism, but told voters to vote for them anyway as a vote for RefUK.
    Pretty well sums them up.
    So the Tories have two candidates in Erewash?! Scandalous.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619

    Should Trump run for president?

    No 54%
    Yes 46%

    CBS (YouGov) A - 1,130 RV - 6/28



    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1807442984725594557

    What's the number for Biden?
    https://x.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1807401006315065549/photo/1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    #New Debate Poll - Who told the truth?

    🔵 Biden 40%
    🔴 Trump 32%


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1807411105536332253

    That’s completely nuts.
    Who were the 32% who thought Trump said anything even vaguely true ?


    And who were the 40% who could understand what Biden was saying ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    edited June 30
    Is that 3 points for England? Seemed to be between the posts albeit very high.

    Walker 4 to aim at. Not even close to any of them.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    biggles said:

    Oh FFS. We should have sent a team of Championship players.

    Have they started losing already? I'm fiddling with my tablet, with BBC1 on as background noise. I couldn't bear the agony.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    MattW said:

    Ooof.

    Story about periodic price changes on District Heating Schemes getting out of phase with the spot market.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmm2n3527m4o

    Residents of affordable housing developments in Edinburgh have said they are "living in a horror story" after being hit with a massive rise in their gas bill as costs are beginning to fall across the rest of the country.

    The Harvester's Way development has 180 properties which are all connected to a district heating system, where one huge gas boiler provides heating and hot water to all the homes.

    It is billed as a greener and more efficient way to heat their homes but it also means residents are unable to shop around for the best prices.

    Places For People Scotland, which operates about 1,000 homes across five sites in Edinburgh, has told residents the tariff for gas will jump 450% from 1 August, meaning people in a two-bedroom flat could be paying as much as £400 a month.

    It said the new heat tariff was procured at the end of last year and reflected the market conditions at the time.

    The unit price for gas can vary significantly and energy companies also impose standing charges, but the average UK unit price is currently just above 7p per kWh.

    The Harvester's Way residents were paying 4p/kWh but that is increasing to 22.18p/kWh.

    For Gas - I'm on Octopus's agile (market) tariff for gas and it's never been more than 4.5p/kWh...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    Nigelb said:

    #New Debate Poll - Who told the truth?

    🔵 Biden 40%
    🔴 Trump 32%


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1807411105536332253

    That’s completely nuts.
    Who were the 32% who thought Trump said anything even vaguely true ?


    And who were the 40% who could understand what Biden was saying ?
    “My party, right or wrong” types. You see them on here all the time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    Nigelb said:

    #New Debate Poll - Who told the truth?

    🔵 Biden 40%
    🔴 Trump 32%


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1807411105536332253

    That’s completely nuts.
    Who were the 32% who thought Trump said anything even vaguely true ?


    And who were the 40% who could understand what Biden was saying ?
    The two most unsuitable candidates since, erm, 2020.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    This match could end 9 a side.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    3 yellow cards after 12 minutes....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    With this a ref a red card is inevitable.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    pigeon said:

    biggles said:

    Oh FFS. We should have sent a team of Championship players.

    Have they started losing already? I'm fiddling with my tablet, with BBC1 on as background noise. I couldn't bear the agony.
    I wouldn’t bother if I were you. Some comedy defending you won’t see in non-league: and the defence has been fairly positive.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    A smile on the face of anyone who has bought bookings on the spreads.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    3 yellow cards after 12 minutes....

    The ref has buggered this now by booking for nothing worth booking early on so clearly going to be reds. Won’t matter as if we play like this for the rest of the match we are out anyway.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,747
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    #New Debate Poll - Who told the truth?

    🔵 Biden 40%
    🔴 Trump 32%


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1807411105536332253

    That’s completely nuts.
    Who were the 32% who thought Trump said anything even vaguely true ?


    And who were the 40% who could understand what Biden was saying ?
    The two most unsuitable candidates since, erm, 2020.
    They are both awful.

    We're not much better - all of the leaders of our political parties are really very disappointing.

    The French have the same issue - but at least one of their figureheads scares the shit out of anyone rational.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    biggles said:

    pigeon said:

    biggles said:

    Oh FFS. We should have sent a team of Championship players.

    Have they started losing already? I'm fiddling with my tablet, with BBC1 on as background noise. I couldn't bear the agony.
    I wouldn’t bother if I were you. Some comedy defending you won’t see in non-league: and the defence has been fairly positive.
    I am reminded of a Downfall spoof at the time of Gordon Brown.

    "Even Derby County are laughing at us..."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    4 in 16 minutes...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    If this man refereed an English cup tie, it would get called off.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    3 yellow cards after 12 minutes....

    Four after 16’
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,588
    HYUFD said:

    I think Kellner is broadly in the right ball park but unless the Tories can squeeze Reform a bit more next week to get to 25%+ I am still expecting 100-150 Tory seats

    This still feels like the most likely outcome to me.

    The FT's endorsement of Labour today is also worth a read. Even handed about Labour's challenges and issues, v. the need for an effective opposition. They also emphasise "effective" - 150 Conservatives on the opposition bench, fighting amongst themselves is not "effective" and is part of the problem of the last 15 years.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956

    Can we please reverse this ever increasing amount of pundits before a game all talking brain rot.

    Sack the lot of them and just have big Ange explain the game.

    Biggest regret about the Euros is that Klopp turned down ITV.
    We really need a clear out / change of thinking, the same way as they have with the cricket. Far less on well you were a really famous player 25+ years ago, much more you are a current top level coach or recently retired player known for tactical awareness. Sky binned Botham, Holding, Gower, all legends of the game, but bugger all clue about modern cricket. Their suggestion was normally well bowl faster, bowl a load of bouncers, that what I would have done....yes but you can't more than one per over now in certain games. It like Roy Keane, doesn't even know the rules.

    See hiring of Wayne Rooney...I mean come on man, nobody really believes he is a tactical genius. Great player, it is showing he is a clueless manager and piss poor communicator.
    Every time I watch footy on TV, I find myself desparately searching for the "channels" which the pundits are always jabbering on about but of which so far there has been absolutely no sign. It's rather like a side's strategic formation be it 4-2-4, 4-3-3, 3-4-2-1 etc, etc. The only time you ever see these remotely in place is immediately prior to the start of both halves.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Booking all our black players...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    #New Debate Poll - Who told the truth?

    🔵 Biden 40%
    🔴 Trump 32%


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1807411105536332253

    That’s completely nuts.
    Who were the 32% who thought Trump said anything even vaguely true ?


    And who were the 40% who could understand what Biden was saying ?
    The two most unsuitable candidates since, erm, 2020.
    No, Biden was fine, as I said at the time, in 2020.
    Indeed in many respects he surprised on the upside.

    I don’t have the same view this time around.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    That joke about the England team not being able to find the box or put a cross in it isn't looking quite so funny now.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,120
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Ooof.

    Story about periodic price changes on District Heating Schemes getting out of phase with the spot market.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmm2n3527m4o

    Residents of affordable housing developments in Edinburgh have said they are "living in a horror story" after being hit with a massive rise in their gas bill as costs are beginning to fall across the rest of the country.

    The Harvester's Way development has 180 properties which are all connected to a district heating system, where one huge gas boiler provides heating and hot water to all the homes.

    It is billed as a greener and more efficient way to heat their homes but it also means residents are unable to shop around for the best prices.

    Places For People Scotland, which operates about 1,000 homes across five sites in Edinburgh, has told residents the tariff for gas will jump 450% from 1 August, meaning people in a two-bedroom flat could be paying as much as £400 a month.

    It said the new heat tariff was procured at the end of last year and reflected the market conditions at the time.

    The unit price for gas can vary significantly and energy companies also impose standing charges, but the average UK unit price is currently just above 7p per kWh.

    The Harvester's Way residents were paying 4p/kWh but that is increasing to 22.18p/kWh.

    For Gas - I'm on Octopus's agile (market) tariff for gas and it's never been more than 4.5p/kWh...
    Interesting. I am on the first Octopus 12M fix from last October, and my rate is 6.44p/kWh. Served me well through the winter, even though I've pivoted to electric heating. I'm behind now wrt current prices which have dropped but current gas usage for the summer is running at <100kWh/month.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    What on earth is going on with all these yellow cards?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    edited June 30
    So glad Southgate took an injured left back who hasn’t played for months who still isnt fit to play and picked an average right back to take his place who can’t cross the ball so has to stop and pass it backwards. I’m no fan of Chilwell but he would be infinitely better than Trippier. Well done Gareth.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,512

    MattW said:

    The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.

    Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.

    I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.

    Excellent header, @TSE ,and I'm on it from this morning. Thank-you.

    But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).

    Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.

    Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.

    That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.

    I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
    The S postcode also covers Nottinghamshire.

    There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.

    I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
    The S postcode covers a small part of Northern Notts. The rest is part of the NG postcode which also covers significant parts of Lincolnshire.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    There's a remarkably small vote share difference between 50 Conservative seats and 150. Good value I think purely on random effects.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    Oh, Kane is actually playing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    Penalty shout there?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    DavidL said:

    Oh, Kane is actually playing.

    No, he’s just on the pitch and taking up a space.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    People on here who think you can go "Labour + Lib Dem + Green" or "Cons + Reform" in vote share totals, ignore the fact that many Lib Dems and Greens would never vote Labour, but in particular - that many Reform voters actually prefer Starmer / Labour to Sunak / the Tories. I think there's been decent pollster evidence of the latter.

    Arguably, Greens should not be in there because they mainly attack Labour seats. But Lab + LD is completely legitimate, because they tend to split the anti-Tory vote pretty efficiently, and only oppose each other's incumbency in Sheffield, Hallam and - in theory - Cambridge.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    Andy_JS said:

    What on earth is going on with all these yellow cards?

    The referee is almost as bad as the two teams ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Oh dear
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    England are crap.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    No way we come back from here. FFS. It’s going to be a humiliation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Oops
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937
    biggles said:

    No way we come back from here. FFS. It’s going to be a humiliation.

    Is this a football post or an election post?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    boulay said:

    So glad Southgate took an injured left back who hasn’t played for months who still sent fit to play and picked an average right back to take his place who can’t cross the ball so has to stop and pass it backwards. I’m no fan of Chigwell but he would be infinitely better than Trippier. Well done Gareth.

    It is increasingly bizarre. I am a big fan of Shaw but we are now at the quarter finals and he has still not played a minute.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Time to start playing
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    biggles said:

    No way we come back from here. FFS. It’s going to be a humiliation.

    Vote Conservative!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    It was coming
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    No way we come back from here. FFS. It’s going to be a humiliation.

    Is this a football post or an election post?
    Pretty harsh to call the election of Starmer a national humiliation….
  • Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ChloeKeedyITV

    In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’

    St Ives
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    South Devon
    Torbay
    Yeovil
    Taunton & Wellington
    Wells & Mendip Hills
    West Dorset
    Mid Dorset & North Poole
    South Cotswolds
    North Cotswolds

    The Cotswolds aren't in the West Country. Unless your definition of West Country starts at Heathrow Airport.
    That far West? Doesn’t it start at Hogarth Roundabout, or is it Hammersmith Flyover?
    Poor old Hogarth.

    One of the great English writers of "antiquity"

    And as soon as his name is mentioned the suffix "Roundabout" springs to mind.

    And a flyover made of Meccano.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,120
    This is a very good advertisement for cricket.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    EPG said:

    People on here who think you can go "Labour + Lib Dem + Green" or "Cons + Reform" in vote share totals, ignore the fact that many Lib Dems and Greens would never vote Labour, but in particular - that many Reform voters actually prefer Starmer / Labour to Sunak / the Tories. I think there's been decent pollster evidence of the latter.

    Arguably, Greens should not be in there because they mainly attack Labour seats. But Lab + LD is completely legitimate, because they tend to split the anti-Tory vote pretty efficiently, and only oppose each other's incumbency in Sheffield, Hallam and - in theory - Cambridge.
    Nobody thinks they are all interchangeable, bit they are a useful check of the total left vs right balance.

    Evidence for this? The LLG vs RefCon shares are much more consistent between pollsters than the individual parties, particularly the small ones.

    Most of the movement in the campaign has been within rather than between those “blocs”.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Kellner is broadly in the right ball park but unless the Tories can squeeze Reform a bit more next week to get to 25%+ I am still expecting 100-150 Tory seats

    This still feels like the most likely outcome to me.

    The FT's endorsement of Labour today is also worth a read. Even handed about Labour's challenges and issues, v. the need for an effective opposition. They also emphasise "effective" - 150 Conservatives on the opposition bench, fighting amongst themselves is not "effective" and is part of the problem of the last 15 years.
    The Conservatives will be useless for a long time. Accumulation of widespread public loathing of/disinterest in them, and the likely victory of the loony right at the end of the impending re-enactment of the lilypond catfight.
This discussion has been closed.