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If Peter Kellner is right then the back the Tories at 9s to win 150-199 seats – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • EPG said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    On the contrary, in both the UK and the USA, debt to GDP ratios have gone up by 60% of GDP since the mid-2000s, so there is no evidence that the USA leveraged its way out of recessions while the UK sternly saved. It's true that the USA debt to GDP ratio has been persistently higher by around twenty percentage points, and perhaps this wedge of cheap debt ended up financing other parts of their economy, like housing (through Fannie and Freddie).
    Indeed. US interest on their debt now exceeds spending on the military for the first time. A reliable end of empire Klaxon.

    There is also the issue that seizing Russias dollar assets has been as catastrophic to them as Suez was to us.

    Because China, India, Brazil etc. looked on in horror and thought "Fuck Me, we could be next if we upset Uncle Sam!"

    So have set about building an alternative international payment system for commodities and goods to the US dollar.

    If you don't have to pay for internationally bought goods in US Dollars, you don't have to keep huge dollar reserves, which means that the US can no longer print dollars and issue vast numbers of US Treasuries without tanking the economy a la Liz Truss.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    ‘Gareth Southgate is his own harshest critic’

    Don’t think so.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,707
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    St Malo is a bit of alright

    This is way the Southgate era ends, not with a bang but near Quimper

    Thanks. I’m here til Tuesday. Try the oysters

    Last time I was in St. Malo there was a plague of ladybirds. Absolutely millions of them. With every step you were having to brush ladybirds off yourself. It was quite unpleasant.
    Were it more exotic you might have had a plague of ladyboys

  • PJHPJH Posts: 643
    PJH said:

    HYUFD said:

    PJH said:

    I was talking to my daughter, who is in Brentwood and Ongar. She has decided to vote LD as the most likely to beat the Tories, in admittedly a very safe seat. (Also she said she actually preferred them to Labour, which surprised me). She says that most of her friends are doing the same for the same reason, as that seems to be the local consensus. Surprisingly her mother, who used to be a Conservative, is also voting LD to get the Tories out.

    And yet all the Tactical Voting sites say vote Labour here, which makes sense based on recent results. But academic anyway, even if the Tories are reduced to 20 seats this will be one of the 20!

    Yes I am in that seat now, Labour were second last time in B and O so if she votes LD that is actually great news for Alex Burghart,

    The LDs were a close third but the Labour voteshare there will be up more than the LD vote this year on current polls
    LDs are strong in Brentwood but the rest of the seat is very solid Tory, isn't it? The LD candidate is a local councillor and I think fairly well known (my ex has met him through his business and thinks he is a decent guy), and has stood a few times before. So maybe a seat where LD and labour switch round, but tbh I can't see that it matters there in the slightest.
    I meant also to say, that I saw more LD stakeboards in Brentwood today than I have seen for all parties combined, in all other seats I've been in for more than 5 minutes, put together. Admittedly I haven't been to any C-LD marginals.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    Even if they win, what’s the point? Just makes an easier game for the Swiss.
  • Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    On the contrary, in both the UK and the USA, debt to GDP ratios have gone up by 60% of GDP since the mid-2000s, so there is no evidence that the USA leveraged its way out of recessions while the UK sternly saved. It's true that the USA debt to GDP ratio has been persistently higher by around twenty percentage points, and perhaps this wedge of cheap debt ended up financing other parts of their economy, like housing (through Fannie and Freddie).
    The difference is that the US debt levels simply don’t affect their currency exchange rate, in the same way as would happen with any other country, thanks to the US$’s status as the world reserve currency.

    But we are seeing cracks there in recent weeks, with China and Saudi agreeing to start to price oil in RMB.
    Seizing Russias dollar assets has been as catastrophic to them as Suez was to us.

    Because China, India, Brazil etc. looked on in horror and thought "Fuck Me, we could be next if we upset Uncle Sam!"

    So have set about building an alternative international payment system for commodities and goods to the US dollar.

    If you don't have to pay for internationally bought goods in US Dollars, you don't have to keep huge dollar reserves, which means that the US can no longer print dollars and issue vast numbers of US Treasuries without tanking the economy a la Liz Truss.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    Six minutes more of this torture.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232

    "Southgate is his own harshest critic"

    Not while I'm around he's not.

    He’s clearly unaware of the existence of myself
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    pigeon said:

    Are they still taking the knee (not watching the match and letting you lot keep me up to date for the same blood pressure reasons as not watching Question time).

    I don't think so.

    I'm currently half-watching a documentary about otters.
    England have been otterly wretched.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Cav empt

    FRANCE: Exit polls circulating, due to Swiss / Belgium media having no embargo… plus a media source I have! 

    They show what polls found: A strong far-right 1st. Left bloc 2nd. Macron bloc distant 3rd.

    Various firms finding different gaps between blocs... which is everything.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    biggles said:

    I don’t even really want them to win any more. Would be unjust. They don’t care so why should I?

    Agree. An object lesson in base incompetence.

    Besides, Scotland sending two teams to the tournament was plain cheating anyway.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    pigeon said:

    Are they still taking the knee (not watching the match and letting you lot keep me up to date for the same blood pressure reasons as not watching Question time).

    I don't think so.

    I'm currently half-watching a documentary about otters.
    England have been otterly wretched.
    Stoatally
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    St Malo is a bit of alright

    This is way the Southgate era ends, not with a bang but near Quimper

    Thanks. I’m here til Tuesday. Try the oysters

    Chapeau.
    Would work better as à Quimper.
  • Leon said:

    Cav empt

    FRANCE: Exit polls circulating, due to Swiss / Belgium media having no embargo… plus a media source I have! 

    They show what polls found: A strong far-right 1st. Left bloc 2nd. Macron bloc distant 3rd.

    Various firms finding different gaps between blocs... which is everything.

    Nigel says. Just you wait until Thursday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    edited June 30

    ‘Gareth Southgate is his own harshest critic’

    He’s crap at that, too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,120
    pigeon said:

    About 30 minutes until the French exit poll. Both sides of the channel heading for seismic GE results, it feels.

    Polls opened at 0600 GMT and will close at 1600 GMT in small towns and cities, with an 1800 GMT finish in the bigger cities, when the first exit polls for the night and seat projections for the decisive second round a week later are expected.

    Participation was high, underlining how France's rumbling political crisis has energized the electorate. By 1500 GMT, turnout was nearly 60%, compared with 39.42% two years ago - the highest comparable turnout figures since the 1986 legislative vote, Ipsos France's research director Mathieu Gallard said.

    France's electoral system can make it hard to estimate the precise distribution of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, and the final outcome will not be known until the end of the second round of voting on July 7.


    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-vote-election-that-could-put-far-right-government-2024-06-30/

    No idea of the possible implications for a strong RN performance of very high turnout, but it's notable how this election seems to have energised voters in a manner that our own impending change of Government hasn't. Probably because the UK result is viewed as a foregone conclusion.
    Can we encourage RefUKers to cross the channel in small boats and apply for asylum?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837

    pigeon said:

    Are they still taking the knee (not watching the match and letting you lot keep me up to date for the same blood pressure reasons as not watching Question time).

    I don't think so.

    I'm currently half-watching a documentary about otters.
    England have been otterly wretched.
    Stoatally
    Pop goes the weasel!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Evening all!

    I need to work out the numbers, but I am prepared to make a tit of myself with this:
    Reform vote will surprise on the upside but still only deliver a handful of seats in the process of helping Tories lose
    LD will sweep most of the seats being talked about
    Labour will lose a couple of seats over Gaza
    Tories below 100. Toss up Tory / LD for the opposition

    Hingland losing to Slovakia will only sour an already determined mood to punish beat the Tories.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 30
    Toney coming on for uncertain purposes for 90 seconds
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    pigeon said:

    Are they still taking the knee (not watching the match and letting you lot keep me up to date for the same blood pressure reasons as not watching Question time).

    I don't think so.

    I'm currently half-watching a documentary about otters.
    England have been otterly wretched.
    Stoatally
    Beavering away to oblivion.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    Juuuuuude!!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Goal
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Genius manager, never doubted him.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Lol
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    IT'S COMING HOME
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    The Wife on substitutions:

    "He's left it far too late. Even I know that...."

    You know nothing woman!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    Bellingham. He has been shite. But cometh the hour.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Never doubted for a second
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    Juuuuuude!!!

    Toney coming on for uncertain purposes for 90 seconds

    All part of the plan...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    Southgate says I told you I was smart in preserving all those substitutes.
  • pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Are they still taking the knee (not watching the match and letting you lot keep me up to date for the same blood pressure reasons as not watching Question time).

    I don't think so.

    I'm currently half-watching a documentary about otters.
    England have been otterly wretched.
    Stoatally
    Pop goes the weasel!
    https://youtu.be/9uqDAz7MVco?feature=shared
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    dixiedean said:

    Juuuuuude!!!

    Oh God. This going to end on penalties, isn't it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    edited June 30
    Never in doubt......but my god we are shit aren't we.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    biggles said:

    I have previously been misquoted as a critic of the England squad and Gareth Southgate. Those words were taken totally out of context. I have always been their greatest supporter.

    Just lulling them into a false sense of security.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,859
    biggles said:

    I have previously been misquoted as a critic of the England squad and Gareth Southgate. Those words were taken totally out of context. I have always been their greatest supporter.

    Strategic genius on the level of George Osborne.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    It all means nowt if they go out on penalties still at the end of this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    WTF was waistcoat waiting until 95 min to bring on Toney?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261

    Thoughts and prayers for Leondamus.

    lol 😂
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    At least now we can lose on penalties.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    biggles said:

    I have previously been misquoted as a critic of the England squad and Gareth Southgate. Those words were taken totally out of context. I have always been their greatest supporter.

    Strategic genius on the level of George Osborne.
    Long term footballing plan.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    biggles said:

    I have previously been misquoted as a critic of the England squad and Gareth Southgate. Those words were taken totally out of context. I have always been their greatest supporter.

    No you are meant to say someone hacked your Twitter/WhatsApp and you lost your phone off the side of a ferry.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    Problem England have now is really unbalanced team. Going to need to make substitutes to balance it back up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    Another 30 minutes of torture.

    And that's before the penalties.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    First shot on target.
    A bicycle kick in the 95th minute.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    Bloody hell!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,641
    Just put some money on the Tories getting over 200 seats.

    I think this is a sign.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    England to win Euro 2024 . Lady luck on their side.
  • Another 30 minutes of torture.

    And that's before the penalties.

    A bit like us all having to go and vote again in two weeks if too many postal ballots have been lost in the post
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    WTF was waistcoat waiting until 95 min to bring on Toney?

    Cos he wants to torture us. Can you blame him given the shite he gets?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    dixiedean said:

    First shot on target.
    A bicycle kick in the 95th minute.

    You can't play a good team and rely on one shot on target over the course of 90min, especially with our defence.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    Never in doubt......but my god we are shit aren't we.

    We absolutely don't deserve this, and if I was Slovakia I'd be very upset if England squeek this now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Another 30 minutes of torture.

    And that's before the penalties.

    Gareth Southgate or Gareth Sunak? :lol:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ChloeKeedyITV

    In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’

    St Ives
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    South Devon
    Torbay
    Yeovil
    Taunton & Wellington
    Wells & Mendip Hills
    West Dorset
    Mid Dorset & North Poole
    South Cotswolds
    North Cotswolds

    The Cotswolds aren't in the West Country. Unless your definition of West Country starts at Heathrow Airport.
    That far West? Doesn’t it start at Hogarth Roundabout, or is it Hammersmith Flyover?
    Poor old Hogarth.

    One of the great English writers of "antiquity"

    And as soon as his name is mentioned the suffix "Roundabout" springs to mind.

    And a flyover made of Meccano.
    Is that Meccano flyover still there? Amazed it wasn’t condemned and replaced decades ago, I used to go over it every week a quarter of a century ago, and it used to rattle and sway in the wind even then.
    Yes, still there,

    The roundabout did inspire this, which is quite brilliant.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Never doubted it for a second. That’s why I love Gareth Southgate and his critics can do one. Not just a nice man - a brave and capable man who NEVER GIVES UP
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    On the contrary, in both the UK and the USA, debt to GDP ratios have gone up by 60% of GDP since the mid-2000s, so there is no evidence that the USA leveraged its way out of recessions while the UK sternly saved. It's true that the USA debt to GDP ratio has been persistently higher by around twenty percentage points, and perhaps this wedge of cheap debt ended up financing other parts of their economy, like housing (through Fannie and Freddie).
    The difference is that the US debt levels simply don’t affect their currency exchange rate, in the same way as would happen with any other country, thanks to the US$’s status as the world reserve currency.

    But we are seeing cracks there in recent weeks, with China and Saudi agreeing to start to price oil in RMB.
    Japan shows us that humongous debt to GDP ratios are technically feasible, if you can repress banks, depositors and domestic investors, and invest the borrowed money in domestic or overseas assets that earn an income. Unlikely in countries where borrowing is for medical care overruns.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    BREAKING: The far-right party has taken the lead in the French parliamentary election first round with 34.5%, followed by the left-wing party at 28.5%, and President Macron's bloc at 22.5%.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    WTF was waistcoat waiting until 95 min to bring on Toney?

    I genuinely have no idea what goes on in Southgate's head. It doesn't make any sense to me.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,120

    biggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    Yet, US public services are worse than those of most rich world countries. For them, austerity is permanent.
    There’s a lot in that. People focus too much on their healthcare. The rest is crap too. Nothing ever bloody works, and just when you think their capitalism would help, it turns out then are corporatists. I was amazed when a mate of there told me what cable tv and phone cost him, compared to what you get here when Sky and Virgin compete, just to give one example.
    @rcs1000 might have more accurate information, but as I understand it, food prices are now eyewatering in their supermarkets and restaurants.
    There's a fairly extensive set of Youtube "American reacts to" videos about food prices in the UK (and also Europe).

    There's another set about food quality.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Oops mannie Macron. That didn’t work did it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,592
    French exit poll:

    RN: 34%
    Front populaire: 29%
    Ensemble: 21%
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,949

    Problem England have now is really unbalanced team. Going to need to make substitutes to balance it back up.

    Only an England fan could respond to a last minute equaliser keeping them in the competition by saying "problem England have now..."
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Problem England have now is really unbalanced team. Going to need to make substitutes to balance it back up.

    We were balanced before?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited June 30
    Eabhal said:

    Just put some money on the Tories getting over 200 seats.

    I think this is a sign.

    Nah.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited June 30
    Leon said:

    BREAKING: The far-right party has taken the lead in the French parliamentary election first round with 34.5%, followed by the left-wing party at 28.5%, and President Macron's bloc at 22.5%.

    Exit poll not actual count yet. If true their parliament will be as hung as a criminal in a Hogarth painting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    glw said:

    WTF was waistcoat waiting until 95 min to bring on Toney?

    I genuinely have no idea what goes on in Southgate's head. It doesn't make any sense to me.
    It’s very clear that both he and team are pissed off with the attitude of the England fans.
    This was deliberate torture.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    Far right makes big gains in election first round - exit polls

    And we can now bring you the first estimates of the results in the first round of the French parliamentary elections, based on initial exit polls given by France 2.

    National Rally: 34%
    New Popular Front: 28.1%
    French President Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance: 20.3%
    Republicans: 10.2%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Goal
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    They'll win 4-1 now
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    edited June 30
    IT'S DEFINITELY COMING HOME!!!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Far Right flattering to deceive again in France.

    They lose next week.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Gareth Southgate. Genius!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    See what I mean - after 90 mins of uselessness, Kane unleashes his skill.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Never doubted it 😈
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    This is fucking ridiculous.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ChloeKeedyITV

    In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’

    St Ives
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    South Devon
    Torbay
    Yeovil
    Taunton & Wellington
    Wells & Mendip Hills
    West Dorset
    Mid Dorset & North Poole
    South Cotswolds
    North Cotswolds

    The Cotswolds aren't in the West Country. Unless your definition of West Country starts at Heathrow Airport.
    That far West? Doesn’t it start at Hogarth Roundabout, or is it Hammersmith Flyover?
    Poor old Hogarth.

    One of the great English writers of "antiquity"

    And as soon as his name is mentioned the suffix "Roundabout" springs to mind.

    And a flyover made of Meccano.
    Is that Meccano flyover still there? Amazed it wasn’t condemned and replaced decades ago, I used to go over it every week a quarter of a century ago, and it used to rattle and sway in the wind even then.
    Yes, still there,

    The roundabout did inspire this, which is quite brilliant.


    There's another one at Lodge Avenue on the A13 at Barking, and at Gallows Corner at the A12/A127 junction.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    On the contrary, in both the UK and the USA, debt to GDP ratios have gone up by 60% of GDP since the mid-2000s, so there is no evidence that the USA leveraged its way out of recessions while the UK sternly saved. It's true that the USA debt to GDP ratio has been persistently higher by around twenty percentage points, and perhaps this wedge of cheap debt ended up financing other parts of their economy, like housing (through Fannie and Freddie).
    The difference is that the US debt levels simply don’t affect their currency exchange rate, in the same way as would happen with any other country, thanks to the US$’s status as the world reserve currency.

    But we are seeing cracks there in recent weeks, with China and Saudi agreeing to start to price oil in RMB.
    Seizing Russias dollar assets has been as catastrophic to them as Suez was to us.

    Because China, India, Brazil etc. looked on in horror and thought "Fuck Me, we could be next if we upset Uncle Sam!"

    So have set about building an alternative international payment system for commodities and goods to the US dollar.

    If you don't have to pay for internationally bought goods in US Dollars, you don't have to keep huge dollar reserves, which means that the US can no longer print dollars and issue vast numbers of US Treasuries without tanking the economy a la Liz Truss.
    More an aspiration than a promise... Russia is still screwed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    DougSeal said:

    This is fucking ridiculous.

    They were trolling us.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    2-1 What a turnaround :)
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    I feel for all those sad twats on ConHome who didn’t have any belief in England and Southgate. That’s why us clever people are on here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,592
    Heathener said:

    Far Right flattering to deceive again in France.

    They lose next week.

    They performed in line with the polls on a very high turnout.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_French_legislative_election
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,170
    We might win it all, this has Man Utd FA Cup vibes all over it
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Leon said:

    Oops mannie Macron. That didn’t work did it?

    Hold your horses. His plan is for chaos then win when the parliament effs up
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    edited June 30
    Is France ungovernable?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    I mean it’s been a tactical masterclass from the start. Few managers would have so many options left from the bench at this stage.

    Genius.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,120
    Can we PLEASE lose this damned football match, get out of the tournament, and get back to something less tedious.

    Like puns.

    I do not want to have another one inflicted on me.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    boulay said:

    I feel for all those sad twats on ConHome who didn’t have any belief in England and Southgate. That’s why us clever people are on here.

    Oh no this is an omen.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-proud-election-campaign-win-b2571339.html

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Is France ungovernable?

    Apropos of nothing?
  • Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    On the contrary, in both the UK and the USA, debt to GDP ratios have gone up by 60% of GDP since the mid-2000s, so there is no evidence that the USA leveraged its way out of recessions while the UK sternly saved. It's true that the USA debt to GDP ratio has been persistently higher by around twenty percentage points, and perhaps this wedge of cheap debt ended up financing other parts of their economy, like housing (through Fannie and Freddie).
    The difference is that the US debt levels simply don’t affect their currency exchange rate, in the same way as would happen with any other country, thanks to the US$’s status as the world reserve currency.

    But we are seeing cracks there in recent weeks, with China and Saudi agreeing to start to price oil in RMB.
    Seizing Russias dollar assets has been as catastrophic to them as Suez was to us.

    Because China, India, Brazil etc. looked on in horror and thought "Fuck Me, we could be next if we upset Uncle Sam!"

    So have set about building an alternative international payment system for commodities and goods to the US dollar.

    If you don't have to pay for internationally bought goods in US Dollars, you don't have to keep huge dollar reserves, which means that the US can no longer print dollars and issue vast numbers of US Treasuries without tanking the economy a la Liz Truss.
    More an aspiration than a promise... Russia is still screwed.
    So is the US. And Taiwan.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 30
    Pulpstar said:

    We might win it all, this has Man Utd FA Cup vibes all over it

    Errrm except Man U were fantastic in that final. They played scintillating football. (But the SF, yes)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    edited June 30
    French exit poll projections:

    National Rally: 34%
    Popular Front: 28.1%
    Ensemble: 20.3%
    Other parties: 15.2%
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207

    Thoughts and prayers for Leondamus.

    How much does it cost for a full-time chantry monk these days?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    On the contrary, in both the UK and the USA, debt to GDP ratios have gone up by 60% of GDP since the mid-2000s, so there is no evidence that the USA leveraged its way out of recessions while the UK sternly saved. It's true that the USA debt to GDP ratio has been persistently higher by around twenty percentage points, and perhaps this wedge of cheap debt ended up financing other parts of their economy, like housing (through Fannie and Freddie).
    The difference is that the US debt levels simply don’t affect their currency exchange rate, in the same way as would happen with any other country, thanks to the US$’s status as the world reserve currency.

    But we are seeing cracks there in recent weeks, with China and Saudi agreeing to start to price oil in RMB.
    Seizing Russias dollar assets has been as catastrophic to them as Suez was to us.

    Because China, India, Brazil etc. looked on in horror and thought "Fuck Me, we could be next if we upset Uncle Sam!"

    So have set about building an alternative international payment system for commodities and goods to the US dollar.

    If you don't have to pay for internationally bought goods in US Dollars, you don't have to keep huge dollar reserves, which means that the US can no longer print dollars and issue vast numbers of US Treasuries without tanking the economy a la Liz Truss.
    More an aspiration than a promise... Russia is still screwed.
    So is the US. And Taiwan.
    We’re used to Putin shills.
    Having a Xi one is something of a first.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    edited June 30
    We might get the crazy situation where centre right parties in France ask for their supporters to vote for the left / far left, the socialists, communists and the greens next week in various parts of France.

    Could you imagine Rishi Sunak coming and say vote Jezza Corbyn and George Galloway.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    On the contrary, in both the UK and the USA, debt to GDP ratios have gone up by 60% of GDP since the mid-2000s, so there is no evidence that the USA leveraged its way out of recessions while the UK sternly saved. It's true that the USA debt to GDP ratio has been persistently higher by around twenty percentage points, and perhaps this wedge of cheap debt ended up financing other parts of their economy, like housing (through Fannie and Freddie).
    The difference is that the US debt levels simply don’t affect their currency exchange rate, in the same way as would happen with any other country, thanks to the US$’s status as the world reserve currency.

    But we are seeing cracks there in recent weeks, with China and Saudi agreeing to start to price oil in RMB.
    Seizing Russias dollar assets has been as catastrophic to them as Suez was to us.

    Because China, India, Brazil etc. looked on in horror and thought "Fuck Me, we could be next if we upset Uncle Sam!"

    So have set about building an alternative international payment system for commodities and goods to the US dollar.

    If you don't have to pay for internationally bought goods in US Dollars, you don't have to keep huge dollar reserves, which means that the US can no longer print dollars and issue vast numbers of US Treasuries without tanking the economy a la Liz Truss.
    More an aspiration than a promise... Russia is still screwed.
    So is the US. And Taiwan.
    You wish.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,641
    edited June 30
    This could turn those marginals in Scotland towards the SNP.

    Rishi Sunak will form a minority government...
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    RN will only win a handful of seats outright tonight as you need 50,% to win. Next week in the runoffs the non RN supporters will rally as it were behind the other candidate so no chance of RN majority
This discussion has been closed.