The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.
Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.
I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.
Excellent header, @TSE ,and I'm on it from this morning. Thank-you.
But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).
Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.
Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.
That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.
I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
The S postcode also covers Nottinghamshire.
There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.
I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
As against all this, the point was the university is in CV4. The number matters because the rule is to number outwards from the city centre. I would expect CV4 to be part of Coventry, CV34 not so much
Fun fact, in Manchester, M60 is located next to M1.
The M60 has junctions to the M1 (postcode) ....
What, and what?
1) There are definitely no junctions of the M60 which lead onto the M1. 2) Where is the M60 postcode? Is it one of thise specialist ones like M90 for the airport? I can't find it on a map.
The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.
Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.
I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.
Excellent header, @TSE ,and I'm on it from this morning. Thank-you.
But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).
Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.
Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.
That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.
I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
The S postcode also covers Nottinghamshire.
There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.
I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
As against all this, the point was the university is in CV4. The number matters because the rule is to number outwards from the city centre. I would expect CV4 to be part of Coventry, CV34 not so much
Fun fact, in Manchester, M60 is located next to M1.
The M60 has junctions to the M1 (postcode) ....
What, and what?
1) There are definitely no junctions of the M60 which lead onto the M1. 2) Where is the M60 postcode? Is it one of thise specialist ones like M90 for the airport? I can't find it on a map.
In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’
St Ives North Cornwall North Devon South Devon Torbay Yeovil Taunton & Wellington Wells & Mendip Hills West Dorset Mid Dorset & North Poole South Cotswolds North Cotswolds
The Cotswolds aren't in the West Country. Unless your definition of West Country starts at Heathrow Airport.
That far West? Doesn’t it start at Hogarth Roundabout, or is it Hammersmith Flyover?
Poor old Hogarth.
One of the great English writers of "antiquity"
And as soon as his name is mentioned the suffix "Roundabout" springs to mind.
And a flyover made of Meccano.
Is that Meccano flyover still there? Amazed it wasn’t condemned and replaced decades ago, I used to go over it every week a quarter of a century ago, and it used to rattle and sway in the wind even then.
No way we come back from here. FFS. It’s going to be a humiliation.
Even in the last period of John Major's dying Tory government we still managed to reach a semi final of a Euros...poor Rishi, as if it couldn't get any worse. Next he will be doing a pizza advert with Gareth Southgate!
The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.
Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.
I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.
Excellent header, @TSE ,and I'm on it from this morning. Thank-you.
But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).
Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.
Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.
That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.
I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
The S postcode also covers Nottinghamshire.
There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.
I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
As against all this, the point was the university is in CV4. The number matters because the rule is to number outwards from the city centre. I would expect CV4 to be part of Coventry, CV34 not so much
Fun fact, in Manchester, M60 is located next to M1.
The M60 has junctions to the M1 (postcode) ....
What, and what?
1) There are definitely no junctions of the M60 which lead onto the M1. 2) Where is the M60 postcode? Is it one of thise specialist ones like M90 for the airport? I can't find it on a map.
M60 is certainly not a Manchester Postcode. An outrageous suggestion.
After the S postcode got abolished in London, somewhere else had it for decades before being illegally occupied by Manchester in post office terms and Sheffield stealing their postcode prefix like the Elgin Marbles.
I think Kellner is broadly in the right ball park but unless the Tories can squeeze Reform a bit more next week to get to 25%+ I am still expecting 100-150 Tory seats
This still feels like the most likely outcome to me.
The FT's endorsement of Labour today is also worth a read. Even handed about Labour's challenges and issues, v. the need for an effective opposition. They also emphasise "effective" - 150 Conservatives on the opposition bench, fighting amongst themselves is not "effective" and is part of the problem of the last 15 years.
"150 Conservative MPs - wow ... you're optimistic! The polls are suggesting support levels of around 19% - 21% which probably translates into around 80 - 110 seats, depending on turnout, etc. How did you succeed in finding another 40 - 70 seats?
Lot of parallels with the Italy-Switzerland game here. The bigger, theoretically more fancied team lacking energy and motivation up against a spirited underdog.
The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.
Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.
I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.
Excellent header, @TSE ,and I'm on it from this morning. Thank-you.
But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).
Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.
Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.
That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.
I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
The S postcode also covers Nottinghamshire.
There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.
I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
As against all this, the point was the university is in CV4. The number matters because the rule is to number outwards from the city centre. I would expect CV4 to be part of Coventry, CV34 not so much
Fun fact, in Manchester, M60 is located next to M1.
The M60 has junctions to the M1 (postcode) ....
What, and what?
1) There are definitely no junctions of the M60 which lead onto the M1. 2) Where is the M60 postcode? Is it one of thise specialist ones like M90 for the airport? I can't find it on a map.
Few political options, though, are ever ideal. Britain must choose between a polarising Conservative party that has limited its appeal to an ever-narrower segment of the population, and a Labour party that appears to want to govern for the whole country. The risks of sticking with the exhausted incumbents outweigh those of bringing in a new government. Much of the country hankers for a fresh start. Labour should be given the opportunity to provide it.
The two biggest increases in turnout are in Paris, which should favour the Left, and Bouches de Rhone, which should favour RN.
Yes, but does it? These are constituency elections. If people are turning out who don't normally vote, then it shouldn't be assumed they are voting for the Party who usually wins. And if they are it makes bugger all difference to the results anyways.
There’s a clear pattern. The biggest increases in turnout are in rightward voting areas.
That may not be good news for RN, as these could be Republicans and Macronists, but it is certainly not good news for the NPF.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
On the plus side I got Slovakia at silly odds to win the tournament earlier, thinking it was a decent trading bet. Already nicely in the green…
Very nice! On a similar one - I tipped Austria as a trading bet at 25.0 after they won the group - they are now 17.5, and if it stays like this - their path to the final might be Turkey, Romania and Switzerland!
Gordon for Trippier is looking kinda obvious at this point, isn't it?
You want Gordon higher as a proper winger. Trent for Trippier, who then swaps with Walker.
And Gordon as well, higher up.
I think basically England need to go back in time a few years and change history so that they've practiced before the tournament.
They should watch the Lionesses. They seem focused on making opportunities and expect a hatful of goals against mediocre opposition. And, you know, playing as a team, work as a unit, that sort of thing.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
My view is that growth will be reasonable for the next few years, as the economy returns to the trend that was interrupted in 2020-23.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
Brexit and Covid started at basically the same time. How can you separate them in the data?
Brexit, 2016. Covid, 2020.
If you view the chart on the FT website you will see a clear start point for the decline (the FT chart marks it as 'GFC') but no blip in 2016 on any of the four key measures, but a clear drop in GDP and GDP per head in 2020:
The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.
Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.
I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.
Excellent header, @TSE ,and I'm on it from this morning. Thank-you.
But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).
Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.
Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.
That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.
I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
The S postcode also covers Nottinghamshire.
There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.
I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
As against all this, the point was the university is in CV4. The number matters because the rule is to number outwards from the city centre. I would expect CV4 to be part of Coventry, CV34 not so much
Fun fact, in Manchester, M60 is located next to M1.
The M60 has junctions to the M1 (postcode) ....
What, and what?
1) There are definitely no junctions of the M60 which lead onto the M1. 2) Where is the M60 postcode? Is it one of thise specialist ones like M90 for the airport? I can't find it on a map.
Gordon for Trippier is looking kinda obvious at this point, isn't it?
You want Gordon higher as a proper winger. Trent for Trippier, who then swaps with Walker.
And Gordon as well, higher up.
I think basically England need to go back in time a few years and change history so that they've practiced before the tournament.
They should watch the Lionesses. They seem focused on making opportunities and expect a hatful of goals against mediocre opposition. And, you know, playing as a team, work as a unit, that sort of thing.
For some reason my X now filled with Reform supporters, all of whom appear to think that a tidal wave is coming.
What's going to happen if they win, say, 6 seats - a monumental achievement in its own right but not enough to influence anything in particular? Will Farage really buckle down?
Almost all of us have stories like this. Tories we know who've switched, people we wouldn't have expected going for Reform. NF can get 5 thousand at a rally - no other party can do that. He's surrounded by smiling people wherever he goes - the most any of the others can manage is some stage-managed activists holding some foamex signs. It feels like something very big is happening - it feels like the Brexit Party European elections in 2019. But the polling does not reflect that at all.
I’ve heard John Stones described as “The Barnsley Beckenbauer”. I’m assuming the comparison is to the current dead one rather than the dynamic player he was when alive?
Few political options, though, are ever ideal. Britain must choose between a polarising Conservative party that has limited its appeal to an ever-narrower segment of the population, and a Labour party that appears to want to govern for the whole country. The risks of sticking with the exhausted incumbents outweigh those of bringing in a new government. Much of the country hankers for a fresh start. Labour should be given the opportunity to provide it.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
Brexit and Covid started at basically the same time. How can you separate them in the data?
Similar effects in other countries which didn't have any possible Brexit factor.
I lived in the CV5 postcode for 13 years and that was, at most, 1 mile from Cov city centre. Surprised that Warwick Uni is CV4 as its further from the centre, but it is definitely Coventry. There is a tiny bit of campus that may sneak in Warwickshire but we are talking margins. The CV post code goes down to the Warwickshire cotswolds.
The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.
Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.
I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.
Excellent header, @TSE ,and I'm on it from this morning. Thank-you.
But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).
Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.
Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.
That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.
I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
The S postcode also covers Nottinghamshire.
There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.
I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
As against all this, the point was the university is in CV4. The number matters because the rule is to number outwards from the city centre. I would expect CV4 to be part of Coventry, CV34 not so much
Fun fact, in Manchester, M60 is located next to M1.
The M60 has junctions to the M1 (postcode) ....
What, and what?
1) There are definitely no junctions of the M60 which lead onto the M1. 2) Where is the M60 postcode? Is it one of thise specialist ones like M90 for the airport? I can't find it on a map.
For some reason my X now filled with Reform supporters, all of whom appear to think that a tidal wave is coming.
What's going to happen if they win, say, 6 seats - a monumental achievement in its own right but not enough to influence anything in particular? Will Farage really buckle down?
Almost all of us have stories like this. Tories we know who've switched, people we wouldn't have expected going for Reform. NF can get 5 thousand at a rally - no other party can do that. He's surrounded by smiling people wherever he goes - the most any of the others can manage is some stage-managed activists holding some foamex signs. It feels like something very big is happening - it feels like the Brexit Party European elections in 2019. But the polling does not reflect that at all.
It does to some extent, most polls have Reform getting a higher voteshare than even UKIP got in 2015
For some reason my X now filled with Reform supporters, all of whom appear to think that a tidal wave is coming.
What's going to happen if they win, say, 6 seats - a monumental achievement in its own right but not enough to influence anything in particular? Will Farage really buckle down?
Almost all of us have stories like this. Tories we know who've switched, people we wouldn't have expected going for Reform. NF can get 5 thousand at a rally - no other party can do that. He's surrounded by smiling people wherever he goes - the most any of the others can manage is some stage-managed activists holding some foamex signs. It feels like something very big is happening - it feels like the Brexit Party European elections in 2019. But the polling does not reflect that at all.
A friend who’s prominent in Reform says they expect 15%, and 2-4 seats.
In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’
St Ives North Cornwall North Devon South Devon Torbay Yeovil Taunton & Wellington Wells & Mendip Hills West Dorset Mid Dorset & North Poole South Cotswolds North Cotswolds
The Cotswolds aren't in the West Country. Unless your definition of West Country starts at Heathrow Airport.
That far West? Doesn’t it start at Hogarth Roundabout, or is it Hammersmith Flyover?
Poor old Hogarth.
One of the great English writers of "antiquity"
And as soon as his name is mentioned the suffix "Roundabout" springs to mind.
The final word on Warwick University being in Coventry.
Warwick University has a CV4 postcode, it is in Coventry.
I will not entertain any further discussions on this topic.
Excellent header, @TSE ,and I'm on it from this morning. Thank-you.
But this - THIS - is the most vapid BILGE I have EVER seen on PB, excepting only the occasional Emanation of Leon (generations 1 to the current gen 18 model).
Much of Derbyshire has a Sheffield Postcode, including swathes of the Peak District (the Derbyshire County Council offices and Chatsworth House *just* escaped), most of Bolsover Constituency, Chesterfield Crooked Spire Church and Hardwick Hall. Notts is more fortunate, but not my much. I'm lucky I don't have a Sheffield Post Code myself; the bloody things only stop about 3 miles away - and Sheffield is 30 miles.
Meanwhile, if I have it right your bit of Sheffield spends its energy maintaining a Derbyshire identity.
That's the problem with Socialist Republics; they always want everybody else's territory, and no one ever likes it.
I say no more, and I stop just short of the obvious analogy.
The S postcode also covers Nottinghamshire.
There was plans for a Greater Sheffield super mayoral with all of those areas.
I am from Dore, we are pure bred Yorkshire.
As against all this, the point was the university is in CV4. The number matters because the rule is to number outwards from the city centre. I would expect CV4 to be part of Coventry, CV34 not so much
Fun fact, in Manchester, M60 is located next to M1.
The M60 has junctions to the M1 (postcode) ....
What, and what?
1) There are definitely no junctions of the M60 which lead onto the M1. 2) Where is the M60 postcode? Is it one of thise specialist ones like M90 for the airport? I can't find it on a map.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
My view is that growth will be reasonable for the next few years, as the economy returns to the trend that was interrupted in 2020-23.
Possible but we now have a greater debt overhang and lower unemployment so there would have to be significant increases in productivity.
Which requires more output for the same level of pay whereas people think they're entitled to more pay for the same level of output.
For some reason my X now filled with Reform supporters, all of whom appear to think that a tidal wave is coming.
What's going to happen if they win, say, 6 seats - a monumental achievement in its own right but not enough to influence anything in particular? Will Farage really buckle down?
Almost all of us have stories like this. Tories we know who've switched, people we wouldn't have expected going for Reform. NF can get 5 thousand at a rally - no other party can do that. He's surrounded by smiling people wherever he goes - the most any of the others can manage is some stage-managed activists holding some foamex signs. It feels like something very big is happening - it feels like the Brexit Party European elections in 2019. But the polling does not reflect that at all.
A friend who’s prominent in Reform says they expect 15%, and 2-4 seats.
For some reason my X now filled with Reform supporters, all of whom appear to think that a tidal wave is coming.
What's going to happen if they win, say, 6 seats - a monumental achievement in its own right but not enough to influence anything in particular? Will Farage really buckle down?
Almost all of us have stories like this. Tories we know who've switched, people we wouldn't have expected going for Reform. NF can get 5 thousand at a rally - no other party can do that. He's surrounded by smiling people wherever he goes - the most any of the others can manage is some stage-managed activists holding some foamex signs. It feels like something very big is happening - it feels like the Brexit Party European elections in 2019. But the polling does not reflect that at all.
I think the polling does reflect it. 15-20% ish which is what they are polling at the moment to remarkable. What won't reflect it are the final seat counts but that is just the way the system works.
I suspect Farage will be delighted with 6 or so seats if he actually gets them. That would be a step change compared to UKIP when they were polling similar numbers.
What should concern him is who those 6 or so MPs are (if they materialise). Farage, Tice and Anderson are old operators and probably safe hands as far as not getting the party into too much trouble is concerned but he could end up with some real issues unless he has very carefully vetted the other potentially successful MPs - which from what I hear he hasn't.
I count just 10 constituencies in GB which haven't elected a government MP since 2005 (including their substantive predecessors under the old boundaries). Five were won by Labour in 2019 and I'd expect all their successor constituencies to go Labour this time, though Rochdale is one of them. The other five went SNP and Plaid Cymru, in some cases for decades. One can imagine all of these remaining with their current party, or a few falling, but Dwyfor Meirionnydd will surely remain with an opposition MP, continuing an unbroken streak since 1970.
For some reason my X now filled with Reform supporters, all of whom appear to think that a tidal wave is coming.
What's going to happen if they win, say, 6 seats - a monumental achievement in its own right but not enough to influence anything in particular? Will Farage really buckle down?
Almost all of us have stories like this. Tories we know who've switched, people we wouldn't have expected going for Reform. NF can get 5 thousand at a rally - no other party can do that. He's surrounded by smiling people wherever he goes - the most any of the others can manage is some stage-managed activists holding some foamex signs. It feels like something very big is happening - it feels like the Brexit Party European elections in 2019. But the polling does not reflect that at all.
A friend who’s prominent in Reform says they expect 15%, and 2-4 seats.
That’s nothing. Rishi Sunak says he still thinks he can win the election.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
The US rewards success lavishly, and punishes failure brutally.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
How have US levels of debt and inequality changed ?
In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’
St Ives North Cornwall North Devon South Devon Torbay Yeovil Taunton & Wellington Wells & Mendip Hills West Dorset Mid Dorset & North Poole South Cotswolds North Cotswolds
The Cotswolds aren't in the West Country. Unless your definition of West Country starts at Heathrow Airport.
That far West? Doesn’t it start at Hogarth Roundabout, or is it Hammersmith Flyover?
Poor old Hogarth.
One of the great English writers of "antiquity"
And as soon as his name is mentioned the suffix "Roundabout" springs to mind.
Its hard to believe that all the England players play for top European teams and not Accrington Stanley.
Based on what you lot are saying, defeat now would be a mercy. I saw some of the Switzerland match. Can you imagine what they would do to such inept opposition?
Also, the final disappointment/everything turns to crap under the Tories event takes place before the election. As I said the other day, Sir Keir is a lucky general 😊
Canvassing anecdata from outer South West London (Sutton and Cheam).
Interesting area: used to be a marginal Lib Dem / Tory seat and has flipped multiple times, but since 2015 has had large Tory majorities and is a “safe” seat. The environs should be conducive to the Tories: outer London, affected by the ULEZ extension, a lot of self employed, similar in feel to places like Bexley and Sidcup that are rock solid Conservative.
I found quite a few Lib Dems and a number of tactical voters who would usually be Labour. 2 avowedly Tory households. Others who didn’t want to answer (I routinely record them as “not Lib Dem” or Conservative leaning). Nobody said they were voting Reform, but then they might well not say so to a Lib Dem canvasser.
I would say it’s 50:50 there, at least in the wards we canvassed. Certainly no sense of complete Tory collapse. By contrast next door Carshalton looks fairly comfortable for Bobby Dean.
Sutton and Cheam is the "odd one out" as far as Greater London is concerned, the only seat that has moved to the Tories recently compared to 1997/2001/2005.
The interesting point here is that @TimS was sent to canvas in Sutton and Cheam rather than another more marginal Lib Dem target.
The Lib Dems do appear to have widened their targeting.
In an i/v with my colleague @CaronBellITV, Ed Davey confirmed he’s expanded his list of potentially winnable seats in the West Country as ‘people who were thinking of voting Labour are coming back to us because they know the Libs are the only party that can beat Conservatives’
St Ives North Cornwall North Devon South Devon Torbay Yeovil Taunton & Wellington Wells & Mendip Hills West Dorset Mid Dorset & North Poole South Cotswolds North Cotswolds
The Cotswolds aren't in the West Country. Unless your definition of West Country starts at Heathrow Airport.
That far West? Doesn’t it start at Hogarth Roundabout, or is it Hammersmith Flyover?
Poor old Hogarth.
One of the great English writers of "antiquity"
And as soon as his name is mentioned the suffix "Roundabout" springs to mind.
And a flyover made of Meccano.
Is that Meccano flyover still there? Amazed it wasn’t condemned and replaced decades ago, I used to go over it every week a quarter of a century ago, and it used to rattle and sway in the wind even then.
Apparently so. Temporary when it was built in 1971 and still going strong. TfL reparapeted and redecked it a few years back.
Apparently Hogarth lived in a house who's garden wall backs on to the junction.
I think Kellner is broadly in the right ball park but unless the Tories can squeeze Reform a bit more next week to get to 25%+ I am still expecting 100-150 Tory seats
This still feels like the most likely outcome to me.
The FT's endorsement of Labour today is also worth a read. Even handed about Labour's challenges and issues, v. the need for an effective opposition. They also emphasise "effective" - 150 Conservatives on the opposition bench, fighting amongst themselves is not "effective" and is part of the problem of the last 15 years.
"150 Conservative MPs - wow ... you're optimistic! The polls are suggesting support levels of around 19% - 21% which probably translates into around 80 - 110 seats, depending on turnout, etc. How did you succeed in finding another 40 - 70 seats?
If Survation or More in Common are correct, then the Conservatives are on 24-25%, and 10 points or so ahead of Reform. In that scenario, and especially if Reform takes disproportionately from the Conservatives in the Red Wall, and the East, then 150 seats is about right.
Of course, if WeThink or Opinium are correct, and the Conservatives and Reform are practically neck and neck, then it is entirely possible to get a much lower - comfortably sub-100 - Conservative seat count.
A bet on 150 is simply a bet that Survation and MiC are right rather than WeThink or Opinium. At 7-1, those are odds I like.
For some reason my X now filled with Reform supporters, all of whom appear to think that a tidal wave is coming.
What's going to happen if they win, say, 6 seats - a monumental achievement in its own right but not enough to influence anything in particular? Will Farage really buckle down?
Almost all of us have stories like this. Tories we know who've switched, people we wouldn't have expected going for Reform. NF can get 5 thousand at a rally - no other party can do that. He's surrounded by smiling people wherever he goes - the most any of the others can manage is some stage-managed activists holding some foamex signs. It feels like something very big is happening - it feels like the Brexit Party European elections in 2019. But the polling does not reflect that at all.
A friend who’s prominent in Reform says they expect 15%, and 2-4 seats.
Mandy Rice-Davis applies there.
That prediction seems quite cautious to me, about 2% under their poll rating, which my friend thought exaggerated.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
The US rewards success lavishly, and punishes failure brutally.
Its hard to believe that all the England players play for top European teams and not Accrington Stanley.
Remarkable what happens when you go from getting coached by Klopp and Guardiola to an English coach.
If the FA had any sense, they’d be giving Klopp a call tomorrow.
He won't take it.
He said international management isn't for him, he has to work with the players on a daily basis, he couldn't cope with getting them for 10 days every few months.
Its hard to believe that all the England players play for top European teams and not Accrington Stanley.
Remarkable what happens when you go from getting coached by Klopp and Guardiola to an English coach.
If the FA had any sense, they’d be giving Klopp a call tomorrow.
He won't take it.
He said international management isn't for him, he has to work with the players on a daily basis, he couldn't cope with getting them for 10 days every few months.
Statsbomb guy made the point a couple of weeks ago that the average quality of international managers is substantially below that of club managers...the best managers don't want to do to the job in large part for that reason.
Then you have the problem you can even develop really complex systems as they take many months to get fluid e.g. Man City / Liverpool expect their players to take a year to become comfortable with their tactics.
I think Kellner is broadly in the right ball park but unless the Tories can squeeze Reform a bit more next week to get to 25%+ I am still expecting 100-150 Tory seats
This still feels like the most likely outcome to me.
The FT's endorsement of Labour today is also worth a read. Even handed about Labour's challenges and issues, v. the need for an effective opposition. They also emphasise "effective" - 150 Conservatives on the opposition bench, fighting amongst themselves is not "effective" and is part of the problem of the last 15 years.
"150 Conservative MPs - wow ... you're optimistic! The polls are suggesting support levels of around 19% - 21% which probably translates into around 80 - 110 seats, depending on turnout, etc. How did you succeed in finding another 40 - 70 seats?
If Survation or More in Common are correct, then the Conservatives are on 24-25%, and 10 points or so ahead of Reform. In that scenario, and especially if Reform takes disproportionately from the Conservatives in the Red Wall, and the East, then 150 seats is about right.
Of course, if WeThink or Opinium are correct, and the Conservatives and Reform are practically neck and neck, then it is entirely possible to get a much lower - comfortably sub-100 - Conservative seat count.
A bet on 150 is simply a bet that Survation and MiC are right rather than WeThink or Opinium. At 7-1, those are odds I like.
Its hard to believe that all the England players play for top European teams and not Accrington Stanley.
Remarkable what happens when you go from getting coached by Klopp and Guardiola to an English coach.
If the FA had any sense, they’d be giving Klopp a call tomorrow.
He won't take it.
He said international management isn't for him, he has to work with the players on a daily basis, he couldn't cope with getting them for 10 days every few months.
Lewis Hamilton said he wasn’t going to Ferrari, until he did. Adrian Newey definitely isn’t going there next year either.
Comments
Bit like being sentenced to five years, then finding out it’s in HMP Wandsworth.
- Alexander Arnold on for Trippier, who swaps with Walker.
- Gordon on for Foden/Bellingham and over to the left.
- A striker….
Derby Countythe Italians are laughing at us...."https://x.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1807447909702529184
After the S postcode got abolished in London, somewhere else had it for decades before being illegally occupied by Manchester in post office terms and Sheffield stealing their postcode prefix like the Elgin Marbles.
And Gordon as well, higher up.
I think we’re going out here.
https://www.ft.com/content/2290c1f7-a4cb-4fe1-9b69-b0c8ca17f070
Despite proclaiming itself the party of wealth creation, a Labour government could well end up targeting wealth creators.
Few political options, though, are ever ideal. Britain must choose between a polarising Conservative party that has limited its appeal to an ever-narrower segment of the population, and a Labour party that appears to want to govern for the whole country. The risks of sticking with the exhausted incumbents outweigh those of bringing in a new government. Much of the country hankers for a fresh start. Labour should be given the opportunity to provide it.
That may not be good news for RN, as these could be Republicans and Macronists, but it is certainly not good news for the NPF.
Traitorous English capitalists advised laying England.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
If you view the chart on the FT website you will see a clear start point for the decline (the FT chart marks it as 'GFC') but no blip in 2016 on any of the four key measures, but a clear drop in GDP and GDP per head in 2020:
https://www.ft.com/content/2290c1f7-a4cb-4fe1-9b69-b0c8ca17f070
BREAKING: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says he is open to replacing Biden as the Democrat nominee.
https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1806703224792973368
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB
Nor GDP / GDP per capita;
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US
However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
Which requires more output for the same level of pay whereas people think they're entitled to more pay for the same level of output.
I suspect Farage will be delighted with 6 or so seats if he actually gets them. That would be a step change compared to UKIP when they were polling similar numbers.
What should concern him is who those 6 or so MPs are (if they materialise). Farage, Tice and Anderson are old operators and probably safe hands as far as not getting the party into too much trouble is concerned but he could end up with some real issues unless he has very carefully vetted the other potentially successful MPs - which from what I hear he hasn't.
Rishi Sunak says he still thinks he can win the election.
I think that’s the key to their success.
In other news Farage has said he is open to replacing Sunak as leader of the Tory party.
Also, the final disappointment/everything turns to crap under the Tories event takes place before the election. As I said the other day, Sir Keir is a lucky general 😊
The Lib Dems do appear to have widened their targeting.
Whether that is wise we shall see.
Apparently Hogarth lived in a house who's garden wall backs on to the junction.
This is the way the Southgate era ends. Suitably pathetic
He should have been sacked after the euros of 2021. Letting him go on to the World Cup was an error. Keeping him on after THAT was criminally stupid
What a waste of great players
Of course, if WeThink or Opinium are correct, and the Conservatives and Reform are practically neck and neck, then it is entirely possible to get a much lower - comfortably sub-100 - Conservative seat count.
A bet on 150 is simply a bet that Survation and MiC are right rather than WeThink or Opinium. At 7-1, those are odds I like.
He said international management isn't for him, he has to work with the players on a daily basis, he couldn't cope with getting them for 10 days every few months.
Then you have the problem you can even develop really complex systems as they take many months to get fluid e.g. Man City / Liverpool expect their players to take a year to become comfortable with their tactics.
(original quote Cde Bob)